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RHB Indonesia’S Top 10 Picks TP 15X FY20-21F P/Es), 11% Upside

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RHB Indonesia’S Top 10 Picks TP 15X FY20-21F P/Es), 11% Upside Strategy Indonesia 6 January 2020 Indonesia Strategy Overweight (Maintained) 12M JCI Target: 7,000 Smoother, But Slower Sails Ahead Still cautiously optimistic, with a 7,000-pt 12-month JCI target (17x and RHB Indonesia’s Top 10 Picks TP 15x FY20-21F P/Es), 11% upside. Bottom-up stock picking will be key amidst Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – BUY IDR40,000 the global macro volatility ahead. Seek out quality laggards and resilient yield plays. Given declining interest rates, we prefer selected bank, infrastructure, Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – BUY IDR9,300 and property counters. Our telco and healthcare choices offer defensive stocks Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ) – BUY IDR17,100 on potentially weakening purchasing power. We also prefer certain plantation Indosat (ISAT IJ) – BUY IDR4,000 stocks. Note that we added BMRI, BSDE, SCMA, ISAT, and DMAS to our Top Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ) – BUY IDR7,000 Picks to replace TLKM, BBRI, CTRA, WSKT, and MDKA. Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ) – BUY IDR382 New picks: BMRI’s asset quality has improved, and is now less likely to Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ) – BUY IDR16,160 undergo another kitchen-sinking exercise. BSDE looks to enjoy robust Surya Citra Media (SCMA IJ) – BUY IDR1,870 earnings growth, given its diversified market base, while SCMA may reap Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ) – BUY IDR1,930 opportunities on industry consolidation, signalled by its JV with MNC Group. Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ) – BUY IDR4,800 ISAT is to book the fastest operational performance turnaround among the operators, driven by low-based 4G data traffic. DMAS is set to benefit from the Analysts expected acceleration in direct investments and Industry 4.0. Andrey Wijaya Benign FY20F earnings growth, with EPS growth of 11%. Similar to our +6221 5093 9846 sector picks, banks, cement, and industrial estates are the growth drivers. [email protected] Banks should continue to benefit from improving liquidity on a higher foreign direct investment (FDI) rate. Cement, a proxy to the infrastructure sector, should benefit from accelerated government projects in 2020. Continued Michael W Setjoadi strong data consumption growth should drive telcos’ ARPU in 2020. Overall, +6221 5093 9844 JCI earnings growth may be limited in 2020 (+11% YoY vs 2019F’s +6.6%). [email protected] More stable political conditions should boost investment confidence. President Joko Widodo’s (Jokowi) new Cabinet – themed Onward Indonesia Recent related reports: (Indonesia Maju) – should ensure more political stability, which is the key factor Omnibus Law To Accelerate Growth to attract FDI. Just two months after its inauguration, this Cabinet has shown 3Q19 Earnings Growth, As Expected positive developments, eg introducing “omnibus” laws, and restructuring the New Cabinet – All About Check And Balance management teams of the state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Preview 3Q19: Slowdown To Likely Continue Positive on the Government’s second-term focus over the long term on Jokowi’s Second Term Inauguration more productive budget spending that will benefit the younger generation – the Top 10: TLKM, SMGR, JSMR, HEAL Added basis of our economy. Massive infrastructure projects are likely to continue, Top 10 Picks: Replacing HMSP With BBCA which should create a multiplier impact on industry and tourism. IDX-RHB Investment Summit 2019 Simplified laws and regulations to boost FDI growth. The Government will A Stock Picking Market; Add MDKA To Top10 propose omnibus laws to simplify regulations, especially those related to local regulations and labour reforms. It will also reform tax regulations – eg income RHB Indonesia analysts: tax rate reduction and dividend tax abolishment – so that Indonesia becomes more competitive, in a bid to attract investors. We believe FDI is likely to be Andrey Wijaya – Strategy, Auto, Infra, Cement, Coal one of the main growth drivers of GDP in 2020. Michael Setjoadi – Strategy, Telco, Staples, Poultry Household consumption growth to moderate, but stay resilient. Direct Christopher Andre Benas – Banks, Plantation, Property subsidy cuts may translate to 900VA electricity tariff and fuel price hikes, which Jessica Ayu Pratiwi – Healthcare, Retail, Transportation may adversely impact low- to middle-class purchasing power. A shift in wallet Indonesia Research Team – Small/Mid Banks, Media, Metals share towards higher cost of national health insurance (JKN) premiums and Ahmad Nazmi – Regional Economist cigarette prices (post a c.25% excise tax hike) could further lower household Indonesia Fixed Income Team disposable income over the short to medium term. We are NEUTRAL on the consumer sector. % P/E (x) P/BV (x) Yield (%) Company Name Rating TP (IDR) Upside Dec-20F Dec-20F Dec-20F Bank Central Asia Buy 40,000 19.7 24.9 4.1 0.9 Bank Mandiri Buy 9,300 21.2 10.9 1.6 3.5 Semen Indonesia Buy 17,100 42.5 24.9 2.1 0.9 Indosat Ooredoo Buy 4,000 37.5 N/A 1.6 0.0 Jasa Marga Buy 7,000 35.3 16.4 1.6 1.2 Puradelta Lestari Buy 382 29.1 17.5 1.8 4.0 Astra Agro Lestari Buy 16,160 10.9 18.7 1.3 0.4 Surya Citra Buy 1,870 32.6 13.6 3.6 4.6 Bumi Serpong Buy 1,930 53.8 10.1 0.8 0.0 Hermina Buy 4,800 34.1 33.8 4.6 0.0 Source: Company data, RHB; Data is updated as at 30 Dec 2019 See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Strategy - Indonesia Indonesia Strategy 6 January 2020 Table Of Contents JCI Movement In 2019 3 Market Outlook 6 Sector Outlook 10 President Jokowi’s Focus In His Second Term 15 Stable Political Conditions An Economic Boost 16 2020 State Budget Expenditure Comes At a Great Price 18 Simplified Regulations To Boost FDI Growth 22 Economic Outlook 23 Fixed Income Outlook 33 Sector Outlook Reports Indonesia Banks 37 Indonesia Telco 38 Indonesia Automotive 39 Indonesia Consumer 40 Indonesia Cement 41 Indonesia Media 42 Indonesia Poultry 43 Indonesia Construction 44 Indonesia Property 45 Indonesia Healthcare 46 Appendices Valuation And Ratings Of Individual Stocks Under Coverage 47 See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Strategy - Indonesia Indonesia Strategy 6 January 2020 JCI Movement In 2019 Figure 1: JCI’s movement from Jan 2019 to mid-Dec 2019 Note: Share prices as at 30 Dec 2019 Source: Bloomberg, RHB The JCI started with a fair momentum early this year, reaching its peak in Feb 2019 – the highest since early 2018. The steady IDR also served as a booster at the mean level of c.IDR14,190/USD (Jan-Apr 2019). Foreign reserves flipped to a surplus in Feb-Mar 2019 (USD1bn cumulative), after consecutive deficits since Oct 2018. However, external factors remained fraught with risks from China’s decelerating economic growth (1Q-3Q: 6.4-6% YoY, 2018: 6.4% YoY), which retracted to its lowest since the 1990s – marking a collateral effect of the prolonged trade war. For the first time since 2007, the US’ main signal for recession was revealed, as the yield spread between 10-year and 3-month notes was inverted in Mar 2019. The JCI’s biggest drop was recorded in early May 2019, followed by negativity resulting from a major demonstration held to protest the result of the presidential election. Further tariff increases from the US on China exports (USD550bn) and an unimproved economic performance put more pressure on Indonesian equities. The nation’s current account deficit widened (1Q19/2Q19: -3%, 1Q18/2Q18: -1.6%/-2.2%) with the USD/IDR falling to its lowest this year at IDR14,525/USD (as at 22 May 2019). The International Monetary Fund lowered the 2019 global economic growth target to 3.2% YoY (2018: 3.6% YoY). The JCI recovered slightly after Lebaran, but its performance remained lacklustre, dragged down by consumer, mining, and agriculture sectors – which account for 46% of the JCI. Furthermore, the retail sector recorded a slowdown in 9M19: +2.8% YoY vs 9M18: +7% YoY, while the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) underperformed against the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, global trade activity also slowed down. At this point, the JCI dipped and meandered around the lower support levels. Political instability had been a major concern for the JCI, with another massive demonstration in Sep 2019. Soon after, a resolution emerged, as President Jokowi swiftly formed his second-term Cabinet, which is expected to come up with policies to attract foreign investments through continued infrastructure initiatives. Bank Indonesia’s cutting of the benchmark rate to 5% was aimed to stimulate consumer spending, cushioned by well- maintained inflation levels (11M19 average: +3.1% YoY, 2019 target: +3.0±1% YoY). Rally at the end of the year. Some gains were seen as trust has started to build up on what was initially a questionable form of new cabinet arrangement for Jokowi’s second-term administration. Significant progress has been made by the new Cabinet on its development agenda. See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 Strategy - Indonesia Indonesia Strategy 6 January 2020 Figure 2: Global PMI vs global trade Global trade activity (represented by shipping from seven developed countries) has cooled down, along with waning expectations of manufacturers’ output The trend partly explains the impact of global uncertainty, which has toned down economic growth Source: Bloomberg, RHB Figure 3: YTD performance of regional equity markets (USD terms) Regional developed index strengthened by 12.6% on average, with China in pole position Indonesia is the third-most laggard. The positive gains were mostly helped by the IDR strengthening against the USD. YTD, the nominal trend for the JCI is at +1.7% YoY Source: Bloomberg (as of 30 Dec 2019), RHB Figure 4: YTD performance of regional currencies The IDR has appreciated by 4.6% and is in second place after the THB, ie well above the regional average and in line with the steady increase in foreign reserves (+5% YTD) However, the underlying factors behind the surge were not convincingly backed up by the improvement in export trade.
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