Stretched over Two Borders, Hezbollah is Making Anxious

Joe Macaron

August 8, 2017 Joe Macaron

Among the many regional players operating on Guard. Ten days later, Hezbollah retaliated Syrian soil, two arch-enemies are familiar with from southern by launching a rocket each other’s war tactics: Hezbollah and Israel. attack on the Shebaa Farms that killed two After challenging Israel for nearly four decades Israeli soldiers. That back-and-forth set the in southern Lebanon, in recent years the precedent for Hezbollah’s attempts to link the Iranian-backed Hezbollah has sought to open a two fronts against Israel. Nasrallah reinforced new battlefield in southern . Tel Aviv is that concept of simultaneous battlefields in a growing anxious and has been aggressively speech last June when he warned that if Israel targeting any movement by the Lebanese group attacked Lebanon or Syria, “hundreds of that could insinuate building or transferring thousands of fighters from all around the Arab military capabilities near the Israeli-occupied and Islamic world” would be ready to fight Golan Heights. Iran’s agility in moving back. While the Lebanese group has repeatedly weapons and fighters between Lebanon, Syria, threatened Israel with new weapons or tactics, and Iraq worries Israel and changes the rules of warning about combatants from “Iraq, Yemen, the game in the Levant. Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan” is a new trend in Hezbollah’s tactics of intimidation. Covert War in Syria Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s arsenal of weapons Nasrallah’s secret visit to Tehran in April 2013, seems to grow despite Israel’s preemptive where he met with Iran’s supreme leader, Ali strikes. In April, Israeli jets flying the Golan shot Khamenei, was a turning point in expanding several missiles at a military site southwest of Hezbollah’s role in the Syrian war. Since then, Damascus International Airport. Intelligence the Lebanese group has built a military base in Minister Israel Katz noted that the attack al-Qusayr, a Syrian town on the border with “corresponds completely with Israel’s policy to Lebanon, to stockpile weapons—including act to prevent Iran’s smuggling of advanced Iranian-made ballistic missiles—and operate a weapons via Syria to Hezbollah.” In November training facility. Iran’s strategy to establish a 2016, Hezbollah held an unprecedented supply line from Tehran to Beirut is gradually military parade in al-Qusayr, displaying Soviet expanding Hezbollah’s ability to reach Israeli made T-72 tanks, Kornet anti-tank guided targets. missiles, and KS-12A anti-aircraft weapons as well as American-made M113 armored So far, Israel has generally had the upper hand personnel carriers that Israeli intelligence in the covert war with Hezbollah in Syria. In concluded were originally supplied to the January 2015, an Israeli helicopter targeted a Lebanese military. Hezbollah convoy in Quneitra in the occupied Golan Heights, killing six of its members as well In January 2013, Israeli forces launched an aerial as a prominent general in Iran’s Revolutionary attack on a convoy in the outskirts of Damascus

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Stretched over Two Borders, Hezbollah is Making Israel Anxious that was believed to be carrying advanced anti- Samir Kuntar, a Hezbollah commander who aircraft weaponry from the Syrian regime to played a leading role in attempting to set up the Hezbollah, most notably the Russian made SA- group’s infrastructure in the Golan Heights, 17, an advanced anti-aircraft missile system. was killed in December 2015 in a rocket strike However, last year the Lebanese group near Damascus. That assassination came a few reportedly acquired the SA-17 that Moscow months after Moscow’s military intervention in provided to the Syrian regime in 2015. Whether Syria. It became evident since then that a Russia had or had not authorized such a Russian-Israeli understanding is allowing Tel transfer, it shows the extent of Hezbollah’s Aviv to strike Hezbollah when it attempts to involvement in Syria and its preparations for a transfer weapons or plan an activity near the potential confrontation with Israel. A Hezbollah Golan Heights area. In hot-mic remarks last officer was reportedly quoted as month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin acknowledging that Russians “give us Netanyahu admitted that Israel and Russia have weapons” (surface-to-surface missiles, laser- been in talks about the Iranian role in Syria: “I guided rockets, and anti-tank missiles); told [President Vladimir] Putin, when we see however, Israel’s ambassador to Russia told a them transferring weapons to Hezbollah, we committee in the Israeli Knesset that Moscow will hurt them. We did it dozens of times.” assured Tel Aviv that it had not transferred, and will not transfer, arms to Hezbollah. Even if Now that the Syrian war is entering a new there is no delivery of weapons, the close phase, Israel and Iran are using their proxies to coordination between both sides in battles like force a new reality on the ground. Last March, Aleppo has undoubtedly benefited Hezbollah’s the al-Nujaba Movement, an Iraqi version of battleground experience. Hezbollah, formed the “Golan Liberation Brigade.” Al-Nujaba was formed in 2013 to join The Golan Heights: New Rules of the Game the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Early in the Syrian conflict, Hezbollah tried to Levant (ISIL) and played a role in the battle of become militarily active in Quneitra, the Golan Aleppo last year. While that new brigade does Heights’ high valley strategically located along not appear to constitute a credible threat, it the United Nations’ demilitarized reflects Iranian reach in coordinating attacks disengagement line between Syria and Israel. against Israel. The Brigade’s spokesperson said The tacit agreement between Damascus and Tel in a statement that the new group is ready to Aviv, since the 1973 Arab Israeli War, ensured participate in the liberation of the Golan over four decades of stability in that area. That “should the Syrian government make the long-term truce is now in jeopardy as Israel request.” continues to occupy 460 square miles of the Golan. Meanwhile, over the last five years, Israel has been quietly setting up a zone of control along

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Joe Macaron the Golan Heights’ demarcation line in a similar indication that either side is interested in fashion to the security belt that Tel Aviv altering that status quo, as Hezbollah has been established in south Lebanon until 2000 with the mostly invested in the Syrian war. Mediated by help of the “South Lebanon Army.” The control the United Nations, Lebanese and Israeli zone runs roughly 6 miles deep and 12 miles officers continue to hold periodic meetings in long in Quneitra to prevent Hezbollah from the coastal town of Ras al-Naqoura to avoid approaching the Israeli fence. In 2016, Tel Aviv tensions and confrontation between the two established a liaison unit to coordinate with sides. Furthermore, Israel’s anxiety extends to Syrian residents, including providing assistance the maritime threat, contemplating a scenario and medical treatment, allowing access to Israel where Hezbollah commandos can potentially and providing aerial support when needed. breach the coast north of Nahariya to carry out Israel is also funding and supporting the Golan a massive attack backed by missiles launched Knights (Liwa Forsan al-Joulan), a border guard from the Lebanese coast. force of Syrian fighters with light weaponry. In his visit to Paris in July, Netanyahu asked Furthermore, Israeli forces have been French President Emmanuel Macron to increasingly more aggressive this year in influence the Lebanese government on retaliating against the Syrian regime. In June, Hezbollah’s regional activities. Netanyahu said two weeks before announcing the July 7 US- in a briefing that Beirut “shouldn’t take steps” Russia deal, “errant” projectiles were fired at that would push “a very serious conflict” the Golan Heights during confrontations between Israel and Lebanon. Indeed, the head between the Syrian regime and Jabhat al-Nusra. of the Israeli Air Force, Major General Amir The Israeli Air Force reacted by launching an Eshel, warned in June of “unimaginable power” attack on Syrian regime targets. In April, Israeli in any future conflict with Hezbollah. “What the forces carried out multiple strikes on pro- was able to do quantitatively in the regime fighters in retaliation for mortar fire. [2006] Lebanon war over the course of 34 days These strikes seem to be a message to the Syrian we can do today in 48-60 hours,” he added. It is regime that it will come under Israeli attack if it noteworthy that Nasrallah had threatened in continues to coordinate closely with Iran in February that Hezbollah could, in return, target southern Syria. the Dimona nuclear plant in the Negev desert.

The Lebanese Battlefield: From the South to The mutual verbal threats between Hezbollah Arsal and Israel remain focused on southern Lebanon Israel and Hezbollah are satisfied with United and do not include southern Syria, where both Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, sides are working covertly and quietly against which brought a decade of stability in south each other. The Israeli military sees that the Lebanon after the July 2006 war. There is no future war with Hezbollah “will be a real war,”

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Stretched over Two Borders, Hezbollah is Making Israel Anxious

with both guerilla and conventional tactics, as remained silent, waiting for clarity from the the Lebanese group is growing into a full- Iranian-Russian talks. Hezbollah felt its fledged army with effective military movements were restrained, while Israel capabilities. believed it did not get enough guarantees that Iranian-backed militias would not be active in In that context, in July the Israeli government southern Syria at a later stage. sent messages to Tehran via Europe warning against the expansion of Hezbollah’s fighting Per the US-Russia deal, Russian police have set capabilities in southern Lebanon. Israel said it up checkpoints and observation posts to “will not tolerate” an Iranian effort to build implement the ceasefire, keeping Hezbollah at underground weapons production factories in least 8 miles away from the Golan’s south Lebanon that will enable Hezbollah to demarcation line. Washington and Moscow produce advanced rockets with no need to reportedly reached a deal where Hezbollah smuggle them from Iran through Syria. The leads the fight against Jabhat al-Nusra in Arsal repeated Israeli targeting of Iranian arms (on the Lebanese-Syrian border) in return for shipments to Hezbollah compelled both Tehran the Lebanese group’s phased withdrawal from and the Lebanese group to consider new Deraa in southern Syria. Hezbollah’s decision to options for continuing to update military lead the Arsal battle in July seems to reverse an capabilities. earlier decision, in May, to move 3,000 fighters from the Qalamoun area on the Lebanese- Hezbollah’s military operation against Jabhat Syrian border to southern Syria. al-Nusra in Lebanon’s Arsal, which was recently concluded in a deal between both sides, Moscow has been sensitive to Israeli demands was closely followed by Israel. One of the many by excluding the “de-escalation zone” in implications of that battle is cementing southern Syria from the Astana talks and by Hezbollah’s leverage over Lebanese allowing Israeli strikes inside Syria. However, institutions; most important, however, is the Russia did not refrain from colluding with Iran group’s control over the Beirut-Damascus in Syria. On July 17, Russia’s foreign minister, highway, ensuring the flow of Iranian arms Sergei Lavrov, said that he could “guarantee shipments and the coordination of cross-border that the American side and we did the best we operations. can to make sure that Israel’s security interests are fully taken into consideration.” The United Israel, Hezbollah, and the US-Russia Deal States is also attempting to calm Israel’s If there is one thing Hezbollah and Israel agree anxieties, although it remains focused on on, it is their objection to the US-Russia deal in fighting ISIL. Israel’s complaints regarding the southern Syria. Netanyahu opposed the deal are merely an attempt to extract additional agreement brokered by while Hezbollah concessions and will unlikely risk political

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Joe Macaron confrontation with either Moscow or support from the community in the non- Washington. occupied part of the Golan. Earlier this month, protests occurred in an anti-Syrian-regime town Israel believes the deal perpetuates Iranian in the southern outskirts of Quneitra against influence in Syria and does not address Iranian factions cooperating with Israel. Similarly, plans to establish naval and air force bases. Tel Hezbollah does not enjoy any support in areas Aviv’s red lines in Syria include keeping Iran outside the full control of the Syrian regime, and away from the Israeli border and preventing the Lebanese group’s fighters even engaged in Hezbollah from acquiring sophisticated sporadic clashes with Syrian troops in weaponry. While Israel might be successful in territories where they had differences in tactics. targeting Hezbollah leaders or Iranian arms Hezbollah is stretched thin on two borders and shipments, it will be hard in the long run to could risk its political support in Lebanon. detect and keep track of the movement of fighters and weapons along the supply line US options are limited beyond imposing from Tehran to Beirut. The only possibly additional sanctions against Hezbollah, as there assured course for Israel, beyond preemptive is no appetite to become involved militarily in military strikes, is the implementation of the the Syrian war. Washington is now relying on US-Russia deal and, most importantly, a Moscow to contain Iranian-backed groups and sustained Russian involvement that can balance keep them away from southern Syria. Iran Iranian influence in the Syrian conflict. seems open to giving up influence in the southwest and north in return for consolidating While in Moscow, meeting with Putin in April its control and maintaining the supply line from 2016, Netanyahu said “with or without a Iran to Lebanon. In the long run, the risks of [Syrian] agreement, the Golan Heights will confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah remain under Israeli sovereignty.” Iran and may largely depend on how the US-Russia deal Hezbollah will undoubtedly use the Israel will unfold in southern Syria. Meanwhile, both occupation card. Despite its backing of a few sides are preparing for a war that, for now, Syrian rebel groups, Tel Aviv does not enjoy seems a long way off.

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