Published 2004 by the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies Reprint permission: Contact the editors at 2058 Maluhia Road, Honolulu, HI 96815 All views expressed in the chapters of this book are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS) or any governmental agency. The complete text version of this book can be found at www.apcss.org CONTENTS Contributors iii Preface 1. A REGION OF CHANGE: A REGION IN TRANSITION 1 Jim Rolfe I CONTEXT 2. THE FORMS OF TRANSITION: GLOBALIZATION, THE ASIAN CRISIS & CHANGE 11 Eric Teo Chu Cheow 3. CHANGE AND ITS REFLECTION IN NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY AND FORCE STRUCTURE 24 Stanley Weeks II HEGEMONIC POWER 4. REGIONAL CHALLENGE: CHINA’S RISE TO POWER 33 Jacek Kugler and Ronald Tamen 5. CHINA’S ROLE IN AMERICAN GRAND STRATEGY: PARTNER, REGIONAL POWER, OR GREAT POWER RIVAL? 54 Christopher Layne 6. CHINA AS REGIONAL HEGEMON? 81 Paul Godwin III SUB-REGIONS 7. THE PROBLEMS AND POTENTIAL OF THE PACIFIC ISLANDS FORUM 102 Eric Shibuya 8. ASEAN: A COMMUNITY STALLED? 116 Narayanan Ganesan 9. SAARC: NOT YET A COMMUNITY 133 Atiur Rahman 10. RIVAL REGIONS? EAST ASIAN REGIONALISM AND ITS CHALLENGE TO THE ASIA-PACIFIC 149 David Capie i CONTENTS IV TRANSITIONS TO DEMOCRACY 11. KOREA: CHALLENGES FOR DEMOCRATIC CONSOLIDATION 166 Carl Baker 12. TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY IN INDONESIA: SOME OUTSTANDING PROBLEMS 195 Ikrar Bhakti 13. THE TRANSITION TO ‘GUIDED’ DEMOCRACY IN PAKISTAN 207 Aqil Shah V TRANSITIONS TO MARKET ECONOMIES 14. FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC: COMPETITIVE ASPECTS OF SUB-REGIONAL TRADE INSTITUTION BUILDING 219 Yoichiro Sato 15. NEW ZEALAND: DEVELOPING AND SUSTAINING ECONOMIC LIBERALIZATION 239 Gary Hawke 16. INDIA TRYING TO LIBERALIZE: ECONOMIC REFORMS SINCE 1991 259 Charan Wadhva 17. VIETNAM: WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE? 285 Adam Fforde VI TRANSITIONS TO OPEN SOCIETIES 18.TRANSITIONS IN MALAYSIAN SOCIETY AND POLITICS 300 Michael Leigh and Belinda Lip 19. MONGOLIA: MANAGING TRANSITION FROM NOMADIC TO SETTLED CULTURE 323 Mashbat Sarlagtay 20. TONGAN DEVELOPMENT AND PACIFIC ISLAND SECURITY ISSUES 335 Ian Campbell Index 355 ii ABOUT THE AUTHORS CARL BAKER is a member of the faculty of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies. He is a serving officer in the United States Air Force and has worked in South Korea and focused his research interests on Korean Peninsula issues for some years. IKRAR BHAKTI is a research professor and head of the Research Centre for Political Studies in the Indonesian Institute for Sciences. IAN CAMPBELL is a Reader in History at the University of Canterbury, New Zealand. His most recent book is Worlds Apart. A History of the Pacific Islands (Christchurch: Canterbury University Press, 2003). DAVID CAPIE is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow and Co-Director of the Armed Groups Project at the Centre for International Relations, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada. His most recent book is Under the Gun: The Small Arms Challenge in the Pacific (Wellington: Victoria University Press, 2003). ADAM FFORDE is a Principal Fellow at the Melbourne Institute of Asian Languages and Societies, University of Melbourne, Australia, and a researcher and consultant focusing primarily on Vietnam and its economy. His most recent book (as editor) is Doi Moi: Ten Years After The 1986 Party Congress (Canberra: Dept. of Political & Social Change, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, Australian National University, 1997). NARAYANAN GANESAN is a Senior Lecturer in Political Science at the National University of Singapore. He is a member of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific (Singapore) and on the editorial board of Insight: Asia. PAUL GODWIN has recently retired as Professor of International Relations at the National War College, Washington DC, USA. He has published widely on issues of China’s military capabilities. GARY HAWKE is Professor of Economic History and Head of the School of Government at Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand. He has previously chaired the New Zealand Planning Council. His publications include The Making of New Zealand: An Economic History (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1985). iii AUTHORS JACEK KUGLER is the Elizabeth Helms Rosecrans Professor of International Relations at Claremont Graduate University, California, USA and current President of the International Studies Association 2003-2004. He is the co-author (with Ronald L. Tammen and others) of Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century (New York: Seven Bridges Press, 2000). CHRISTOPHER LAYNE is Visiting Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies at the Cato Institute. His book on American grand strategy is to be published by Cornell University Press MICHAEL LEIGH is the director of the Institute of East Asian Studies at the Universiti Malaysia Sarawak. He has published widely on issues of economic, political and social change in Southeast Asia. ATIUR RAHMAN is a Senior Research Fellow of the Bangladesh Institute of Research Studies. He is also chairman, board of directors of Unnayan Shamannay (a non-profit private research organization) and the Credit and Development Forum. His publications include some twenty-three books and many book chapters and journal articles. JIM ROLFE is an Associate Professor of international relations at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Hawaii, USA. His most recent book (co-edited with Eric Shibuya) is Security in Oceania in the 21st Century (Honolulu: Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, 2003). RONALD L. TAMMEN is the Dean of the Mark O. Hatfield School of Government at Portland State University. Previously he served as Associate Dean of Faculty and Professor of National Strategy at the National War College in Washington, D.C. He is the co-author (with Jacek Kugler and others) of Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century (New York: Seven Bridges Press, 2000). MASHBAT SARLAGTAY is a researcher at the Institute for Strategic Studies in the Mongolian Ministry of Defence. YOICHIRO SATO is an Associate Professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA. His most recent book (co-edited with Akitoshi Miyashita) is Japanese Foreign Policy in Asia and the Pacific (New York: Palgrave, 2001). AQIL SHAH is based at the Forum for Democratic Studies, the research division of the National Endowment for Democracy, in Washington DC, USA. Previously he was an analyst for the International Crisis Group’s South Asia project in Islamabad, Pakistan. He regularly contributes to media and scholarly publications on political issues in South Asia. iv AUTHORS ERIC SHIBUYA is an Assistant Professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA. His most recent book (co-edited with Jim Rolfe) is Security in Oceania in the 21st Century (Honolulu: Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, 2003). ERIC TEO CHU CHEOW is Council Secretary of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, Director-General of the Pacific Basin Economic Council- Singapore and Resource Panel Member of the Singapore Parliamentary Committee for Defence and Foreign Affairs. He writes regularly for the media and academic publications with a focus on East Asian politics, diplomacy and economics. CHARAN WADHVA is the President and Chief Executive and Research professor at the Center for Policy Research, New Delhi, India. His scholarly writings focus on issues related to the Indian economy and on regional economic cooperation. STANLEY WEEKS is a former U.S. Navy destroyer commander and is now a Senior Scientist at the Science Applications International Corporation in McLean, Virginia, USA. He is the co-author (with Charles A. Meconis) of The Armed Forces of the USA in the Asia-Pacific (Sydney: Allen and Unwin, 1999). v A REGION OF CHANGE: A REGION IN TRANSITION JIM ROLFE To describe the Asia-Pacific region as a region in change is, to a large extent, both commonplace and a truism.1 In 1996 Professor Michel Oksenberg placed the changes occurring in Asia on the scale of the Industrial Revolution in terms of their global impact.2 Some quarter of a century earlier, the theme of a 1970 conference in Canberra dealing with the region was also of change. That conference noted that if it had been held in the 1960s based on the experience of the 1950s, the participants in 1970 ‘would have sustained some shocks’ brought about by the differences in outcome that could have been expected from a ‘well-informed contemporary [that is, 1960s] assessment’.3 The moral from this is that although change itself might be a given, its pace and direction are not and any lessons to be learnt from change are elusive and require an examination of assumptions as much as of trends. Consider the region we now call the Asia-Pacific as it was in, say, 1949: It was a region of territories and colonies as much as a region of states (although that was changing); 1 I define the Asia-Pacific region broadly. For the purposes of this book it includes South Asia, East Asia and Oceania. The United States is also such a significant presence in the region, strategically, economically and culturally, that it might well be described as ‘of the region’ and it is discussed in terms of regional major-power relationships. Of course, the idea of region is just that: an idea. The ‘region’ in this book is defined the way it is because of some underlying assumptions about relationships between states and about the cause and effect of issues and their inter-relationships, as well as for bureaucratic definitional imperatives. Other ideas of ‘Asia-Pacific’ could well lead to a different idea of the region. 2 Cited in Gary J. Smith, ‘Multilateralism and Regional Security in Asia: The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and APEC's Geopolitical Value’, Paper 97-2, the Weatherhead Center, Harvard University, February 1997.