Blood for Soil: the Fatal Temptations of Ethnic Politics
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the past. The rate of ethnic civil war has THE NEW NATIONALISM Blood for Soil fallen, too. But now, ethnic nationalism is back with a vengeance. In 2016, British The Fatal Temptations of voters chose to leave the eu out of a Ethnic Politics belief that the postnational vision of that body undermined British sover- Lars-Erik Cederman eignty and threatened to overwhelm the United Kingdom with immigrants from ince the French Revolution, Africa, the Middle East, and the less nationalism—the idea that state developed parts of Europe. Donald Sborders should coincide with Trump won the White House that same national communities—has constituted year by tapping into fears that the the core source of political legitimacy United States was being invaded by around the world. As nationalism spread Mexicans and Muslims. And in office, from western Europe in the early Trump has not only fanned the flames nineteenth century, it became increas- of ethnic nationalism; he has also deni- ingly ethnic in nature. In places where grated and damaged the norms and the state and the nation did not match institutions designed to save human- up, such as Germany, Italy, and most kind from such forces. of eastern Europe, the nation tended to Other leaders around the world have be defined in terms of ethnicity, which eagerly embraced their own versions led to violent processes of unification of ethnic nationalism. Across Europe, or secession. At the beginning of the right-wing populist parties that oppose twentieth century, ethnic nationalism the eu and immigration have gained came to disrupt political borders even greater electoral shares. In Austria, more, leading to the breakup of multi- Hungary, Italy, Norway, and Poland, ethnic empires, including the Habsburg, among others, they even hold executive Ottoman, and Russian ones. By chang- power. The brunt of ethnic nationalism ing the size of Europe’s political units, has targeted migrants and other for- this undermined the balance of power eigners, but ethnic minorities that have and contributed to two world wars. long existed in countries have been on But then came the liberal norms the receiving end of this wave, too, as and institutions established in the wake illustrated by the resurgence of anti- of World War II. Principles such as Semitism in Hungary and growing territorial integrity and universal human discrimination against the Roma in Italy. rights and bodies such as the United Brazil, India, Russia, and Turkey, once Nations managed to reduce ethnonation- some of the most promising emerging alist conflict in most parts of the world. democracies, have increasingly rejected Today, large interstate wars and violent liberal values. They are defining their land grabs are almost entirely a thing of governing ideology in narrowly ethnic terms and giving militants more room to LARS-ERIK CEDERMAN is Professor of attack those who do not belong to the International Conflict Research at ETH Zurich. dominant ethnic group. Ethnic nationalism March/April 2019 61 MA19_final.indb 61 1/22/19 10:18 AM Lars-Erik Cederman now exerts more influence than it has at and today, ethnic conflict is far less any point since World War II. common than it was three decades ago. That fact has been bemoaned for all A big reason is that governments are sorts of reasons, from the uptick in hate increasingly accommodating minorities. crimes against immigrants it has caused That’s what the political scientists to the damage it has done to the post– Kristian Gleditsch, Julian Wucherpfennig, World War II order. Yet the scariest and I concluded after analyzing a data thing about today’s ethnic nationalism is set of ethnic relations that starts in that it could bring a return to the ills 1993. We found that discrimination that accompanied its past ascendance: against ethnic groups and their exclusion major violent upheavals both within and from executive power—major drivers of among countries. Should ethnic nation- conflict—are declining globally. Out- alism continue its march, it risks fueling side the exception of the Middle East, destabilizing civil unrest in multiethnic where minorities in Bahrain, Iraq, states around the world—and even Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Syria continue violent border disputes that could reverse to struggle for influence, ethnic groups the long decline of interstate war. Politi- are increasingly being included in power- cians need to resist the electoral tempta- sharing deals. Since World War II, the tions of exclusionary politics at home percentage of the world’s population and reconfirm their commitment to the that lives in countries engaging in some norms and institutions of cooperation form of ethnic power sharing has grown abroad. Those who toy with ethnic from a quarter to roughly a half. Some nationalism are playing with fire. groups have been granted autonomous rule—for example, the Acehnese in IT’S BACK Indonesia and the indigenous Aymara At the end of the Cold War, there were and Quechua communities in Bolivia. warning signs that ethnic conflict might The un’s globe-spanning peacekeeping return. But at the time, any fear of that operations, meanwhile, are helping actually happening seemed unwarranted. prevent the outbreak of new hostilities As the scholar Ted Robert Gurr pointed between old belligerents, and efforts to out in this magazine in 2000, despite promote democracy are making govern- the violence in the former Yugoslavia ments more responsive to minorities and in Rwanda, the frequency of ethnic and thus convincing such groups to conflict had actually decreased since the settle their scores at the ballot box mid-1990s. Pointing to inclusive policies rather than on the battlefield. and pragmatic compromises that had Our data also show that the number prevented and resolved ethnic conflicts, of rebelling ethnic groups has increased he argued that the trend toward peace only in the Middle East. Outside that would continue. Gurr’s essay reflected region, the trend is moving in the oppo- the liberal optimism that characterized site direction. In the mid-1990s, about the decades after the Cold War. Global- three percent of the average country’s ization was transforming the world. population was composed of groups that Borders seemed to be withering away. rebelled against the government; today, The optimism was not simply fanciful, the share has fallen to roughly half of 62 foreign affairs MA19_final.indb 62 1/22/19 10:18 AM Blood for Soil It’ll end in tears: police confront migrants in Roszke, Hungary, September 2015 that. Moreover, based on a global compari- late 2010, rather than marking an son of the concessions made to various expansion of democracy, brought ethnic groups in terms of rights, auton- instability and strife. omy, and power sharing, we found strong Throughout the nineteenth and evidence that such moves have helped twentieth centuries, nationalism tended prevent new conflicts and end old ones. to appear in waves, and it is unlikely that By and large, the post–Cold War efforts to the current one has finished washing stave off ethnic nationalism and prevent over the world. Moreover, it comes at a war appear to have worked relatively well. time when the bulwarks against conflict Yet there have long been signs that it appear to be giving way: democracies is too soon to declare victory over ethnic around the world are backsliding, and nationalism. Around the turn of the peacekeeping budgets are under renewed millennium, right-wing populist parties pressure. Ever since it first appeared, gained strength in Europe. In 2005, the ethnic nationalism has had violent MARKO DJURICA / REUTERS/ DJURICA MARKO treaty to establish an eu constitution consequences. There is good reason to was defeated by French and Dutch worry that the current surge will, too. voters, suggesting that Europeans still cared greatly about national identity. In THE ROAD TO VIOLENCE 2008, the financial crisis started to Rising ethnic nationalism leads to undermine confidence in globalization conflict in several different ways. The (and weakened the eu). The upheavals key variable, recent research has found, that rocked the Arab world beginning in is access to power. When ethnic groups March/April 2019 63 MA19_final.indb 63 1/22/19 10:18 AM Lars-Erik Cederman lack it, they are especially likely to seek These findings are not limited to it through violence. Oftentimes in multi- ethnic groups caught in power struggles ethnic states, elites of a particular group over the control of existing countries; come to dominate the government and they also apply to minorities seeking exclude other, weaker groups, even if self-rule. States usually view such the leaders’ own group represents a demands as anathema to their sover- minority of the country’s population. eignty, and so they often resist making Such is the case in Syria, where Presi- even limited compromises with the dent Bashar al-Assad, a member of the groups issuing them. They are disin- Alawite minority, a Shiite sect that clined, for example, to grant them composes 12 percent of the popula- regional autonomy. This stubborn- tion, nominally runs a country that is ness, in turn, tends to radicalize the 74 percent Sunni. That disparity has aggrieved minority, causing them to fueled widespread grievances among aim instead for full-fledged indepen- other ethnic groups and led to a civil war dence, often through violence. Look no that has so far caused at least 400,000 further than the Catholics in Northern deaths and triggered a wave of migra- Ireland, the Basques in Spain, the tion that has destabilized Europe. Most Kurds in Iraq and Turkey, and several of the time, however, the groups strug- different ethnic groups in Myanmar. gling for power are minorities, such as Ethnic nationalism can cause conflict the Tutsis, who launched a civil war in in another way, too: by leading to calls Rwanda in 1990, or the Sunnis in Iraq, for territorial unity among a single ethnic who are still fighting to win a seat at group divided by international borders, the table there.