THE DISSOLUTION OF YUGOSLAVIA (1990) Chaired by Jake Morris

Session XXII

The Dissolution of Yugoslavia (1990)

Topic A: T he End of Communism in Yugoslavia

Topic B: E thnic Conflict in the Balkans

Committee Overview Parliamentary Procedure As Yugoslavia enters the 1990s, The Parliamentary Procedure used communism is collapsing across Eastern in this committee will be uniform Europe and by January 1990, the throughout the entire conference, although Communist Party of Yugoslavia ceases to because it is a crisis committee, sometimes exist. It is up to you the determine the parliamentary procedure may be future of Yugoslavia, a federal republic that overlooked to keep the fast pace of the has just lost the only party that has led it committee. In the event of crises, delegates since World War II. Will you usher in a new may change Parliamentary Procedure to era of liberal democracy or will you attempt reflect the urgency of said crisis. to bring back the Communist party? Especially if democracy is the goal, how will you reconcile the different hopes and dreams of the many ethnic and religious groups within Yugoslavia? Sensing a looming crisis in the Balkans, the Americans and Soviets have invited you to a special summit to determine the future of Yugoslavia on February 1st, 1990. Besides the tensions surrounding the collapse of the Communist party, many are worried about ethnic and religious conflict destroying the fragile state. Your job is to work diligently to preserve peace while also protecting your political ideology and ethnic/religious group. Delegates should prepare for foreign interference, economic calamity, and other unforeseen challenges.

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Delegate Biogra phies

Slobodan Milošević Franjo Tuđman 7th President of the Socialist Republic of Serbia 1st President of the Croatian Democratic Union In 1984, Milošević became the leader of the local Tuđman had a long history of causing Communist organization in Belgrade, walking problems for the Yugoslav government in the footsteps of his mentor, Ivan Stambolic. through the collapse of communism in January He was a populist leader who appealed directly 1990. After becoming one of the youngest to Serbians and called for an Anti­bureaucratic generals in the Yugoslav army in 1960, he revolution. This revolution eventually toppled shortly left the military to pursue a career in his mentor, Stambolic, and ushered in a more academia. His frequent criticism of the nationalist era of Serbian politics where government’s exaggeration of crimes Milošević was adamant that Kosovo and committed by the Croatian Nazis during World Vojvodina should be fully part of the Serbian War II got him kicked out of the Communist republic. Even at a time of intense economic Party in 1967 and he was later arrested twice. disruption, Milošević was a defender of In 1989, he founded the Croatian Democratic traditional socialist values of heavy state Union, or HDZ.2 intervention in the economy.1

Alija Izetbegović Milan Kučan Founder of the Democratic Party of Action in Former Leader of the League of Communists of Bosnia Slovenia Izetbegović was a Bosnian politician and a Long a politically active Slovenian, Kučan devout Muslim nationalist, a problem in a quickly worked his way up the ranks of the republic where 1/3rd of the population was not League of Communists of Slovenia and their Muslim, but Christian, many of whom saw civil society organization, the Socialist Alliance themselves more as Croats or Serbians. Earlier of Working People. In 1978, he became in his life, under Yugoslavia’s Communist president of the assembly of the Republic of one­party rule, he was imprisoned for his Slovenia and in the early 80s, he was Slovenia’s Islamic beliefs.3 main representative in Belgrade before returning to Ljubljana in 1986. On his return to Slovenia, he became the republic’s Communist leader, a position he used to place Slovenia on the path towards reform and ever closer connections with Western Europe.4

1 John B Allcock, “Slobodan Milošević,” E ncyclopædia Britannica, last accessed August 25, 2018, www.britannica.com/biography/Slobodan­Milosevic. 2 Ibid. 3 David Binder. “Alija Izetbegovic, Muslim Who Led Bosnia, Dies at 78.” T he New York Times, Oct. 20, 2003, www.nytimes.com/2003/10/20/world/alija­izetbegovic­muslim­who­led­bosnia­dies­at­78.html. 4 Milan Kučan. “Biography of Milan Kučan.” www.bivsi­predsednik.si/up­rs/2002­2007/bp­mk.nsf/ostalo/Biography.

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Janez Drnovšek Borisav Jović 12th President of the Presidency of Yugoslavia 3rd Serbian Representative in the Yugoslav Drnovšek was an active member of the Presidency Communist Party of Yugoslavia and served as Jović was a long­time senior aide to Slobodan an economic advisor at their embassy in Cairo Milošević in Belgrade and one­time Serbian during the 1980s. In 1989, he was allowed to representative to the rotating collective contest the Slovenian government’s preferred presidency of Yugoslavia.20 During the late 80s, candidate in an election to appoint the he helped Milošević gain power in the Slovenian representative to Belgrade. He Anti­bureaucratic Revolution. soundly defeated the government’s candidate and is currently serving as the Chairman of the Veljko Kadijević Collective Presidency of Yugoslavia. He also 5th Federal Secretary of People’s Defense of used his foreign connections to preside over the 5 Yugoslavia summit of non­Aligned nations in 1989. A general in the Yugoslav People’s Army (JNA) and the Minister of Defense in the Yugoslav Mate Boban government since 1988. While he had both Bosnian­Croat Businessman Serbian and Croatian ancestry, he self­identifies Croat nationalist in Bosnia who came from a as a pro­Yugoslav Serb.21 He has been a background in business and economics.6 He member of the Communist Party of Yugoslavia had joined the League of Communists of since the 1940s and has been active in the Yugoslavia in 1958, but was at one­point military for most of that time.22 arrested on charges of business fraud, a charge he claimed was due to his support of Croat nationalism. By the end of the 1980s, he began Momir Bulatović to enter the political arena.7 Leader of the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro The leader of the Democratic Party of Socialists Milan Martić of Montenegro (DPS CG) since 1989, the Serbo­Croat Leader successor party to the League of Communists Croatian Serb who started his career as a of Montenegro. Being a close ally of Milošević policeman in Sibenik, a coastal town in Croatia helped him stage his successful coup against before becoming the chief of the Public Security the leadership of the League of Communists of Station in Knin, a strategic town located Serbia in 1989. Advocated for a close 8 between Zagreb and the coast. By the end of relationship between Montenegro and Serbia the 1980s, he was becoming an increasingly and supported Milošević’s denouncements of vocal supporter of Serbian nationalism within autonomy for Kosovo and Vojvodina.23 Croatia.

5 “Janez Drnovsek.” T he Telegraph, February 25 2008, www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/1579738/Janez­Drnovsek.html. 6 “CONTROVERSIAL CROAT NATIONALIST MATE BOBAN DIES AT 57.” T he Washington Post, July 8 1997, www.washingtonpost.com/archive/local/1997/07/08/controversial­croat­nationalist­mate­boban­dies­at­57/390e9616­9369­4005­8b83­ae3c5 2d5d2cc/?utm_term=.296f190fbc6d. 7 Mark Almond, "Expert Testimony". R eview of Contemporary History. 36, no. 1 (December 2008): 177–209. 8 Bakone Justice Moloto, “Prosecutor v Milan Martic Judgement.” U nited Nations, J une 12 2007, 7. http://www.icty.org/x/cases/martic/tjug/en/070612.pdf. 20 Roger Cohen. “To His Death in Jail, Milosevic Exalted Image of Serb Suffering.” T he New York Times, March 12 2006, www.nytimes.com/2006/03/12/world/europe/to­his­death­in­jail­milosevic­exalted­image­of­serb­suffering.html. 21 Thomas S. Szayna and Michele Zanini. "The Yugoslav Retrospective Case". In I dentifying Potential Ethnic Conflict: Application of a Process Model, 8 3. Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2000. 22 Matjaž Klemenčič and Mitja Žagar. T he Former Yugoslavia's Diverse Peoples: A Reference Sourcebook. Santa Barbara: ABC­CLIO, 2004. 23 “Momir Bulatovic,” Wikipedia. L ast modified May 6 2018. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Momir_Bulatovi%C4%87.

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Stane Dolanc Ivica Račan Former Vice­President of the Presidency of 12th President of the League of Communists of Yugoslavia Croatia One of the most influential leaders in federal Račan started his political career in the 1960s as Yugoslav politics during the 1970s and 80s, and a member of the League of Communists of a close ally of Tito before his death. In the 1980s, Croatia and the leader of his local youth besides being the Vice President, he was also Communist league. He entered the central the Secretary of the Interior from 1982 to 1984. committee of the League of Communists of Long after Tito’s death, Dolanc still had Croatia in the 1970s and was elected in 1986 to reservations about reform in his native Slovenia represent Croatia in the rotating presidency of and went as far as to call himself the “last Yugoslavia.24 In Fall 1989, as tensions were Titoist” in 1989.9 rising with Milošević, Croatian Communists elected Račan as their leader since he had Ciril Ribičič promised to defend the very autonomy that Chairman of the Slovenian Delegation at the Milošević was threatening.25 14th Congress of the League of Communists of Yugoslavia Rrahman Morina Son of Mitja Ribičič, the leader of the feared 14th President of the League of Communists of Yugoslav secret police in Slovenia. By the late Kosovo 1980s, he was seen as a reformist leader of the In 1981, Morina was appointed Interior League of Communists of Slovenia and a close Minister of Kosovo, in effect becoming the most ally of Milan Kučan. At the 14th Congress of the important law enforcement official in the League of Communists of Yugoslavia in 1990, autonomous province. Later that year, he called he decided as Slovenia’s representative to leave in reinforcements from Belgrade during riots in the conference in opposition to Serbian Pristina without consulting the leadership in nationalism, a move that led to the recent Kosovo. Due to his allegiance to Milošević, and collapse of the League of Communists of lack of respect for the local government, he was Yugoslavia.10 appointed head of the League of Communists of Kosovo in 1988 during Milošević’s Janez Janša Anti­bureaucratic Revolution. He was one of Editor in Chief of the Slovene Political the few non­Slavic opponents of the Magazine “Demokracija” Kosovo­Albanian separatist movement.26 Slovenian who was a leader in several of the republic’s youth Communist organizations.11 By Radovan Vlajković the mid­1980s, he had become a critic of the Former President of the Presidency of Yugoslav People’s Army and been blocked Yugoslavia from representing the League of Communists of Leader from Vojvodina, the autonomous Slovenia.12 He became known as one of the province in northern Serbia, who was the most important leaders in the Pacifist President of the Collective Presidency of Movement in Slovenia.13 In the late 1980s, he Yugoslavia from 1985 to 1986. Also speaker of began working closely with reformers within the Assembly of Vojvodina in the 1960s.27 the League of Communists of Slovenia.14

9 “Stane Dolanc,” Wikipedia. L ast modified April 30 2018. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stane_Dolanc. 10 “Prof. Dr. Ciril Ribičič, Vice President.” Republic of Slovenia Constitutional Court, Last modified 2011, www.us­rs.si/en/composition/current­composition/prof­dr­ciril­ribicic­vice­president/. 11 Janez Janša, Okopi (Ljubljana: Mladinska knjiga, 1994). 12 Ibid 13 Ibid 14 Ibid

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Vojislav Šešelj Gojko Šušak Founder of the Serbian National Renewal Party Leader of the Croatian Diaspora Community in Ethnic Serbian from the eastern part of Bosnia Canada who was a leader in many local communist A Croatian who lived in Canada for several organizations during his youth.15 As Šešelj’s decades, he became a leader of the Croatian career in academia continued to expand in the diaspora and a close ally of Tuđman when he 1980s, he spent more time associating himself pushed for greater sovereignty for Croatia with dissident intellectuals in Belgrade who within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. An were often supporters of Serbian nationalism. ardent anti­Communist, in January 1990, he He began turning against former intellectual returned to Croatia.28 friends who were Muslims while also making enemies in the Communist apparatus by Milo Đukanović criticizing powerful intellectuals in Sarajevo. In Secretary at the Presidency of the League of 1984, he was arrested on anti­Communist charges including supporting nationalism and Communists of Montenegro anarcho­liberalism.16 Montenegrin leader who served as a secretary of the Municipal Assembly of Mojkovac and then became its leader during the late 1980s.29 Petar Stambolić His father was an important leader in the Former President of the Presidency of League of Communists of Montenegro, Yugoslavia presenting an easy path to power for Serbian Communist leader who served as the Đukanović. By mid­1989, during the President of the Collective Presidency of Anti­bureaucratic Revolution, he became an Yugoslavia from 1982 to 1983. Earlier in his ally of Milošević and became a Secretary at the career, he was an important military leader in Presidency of the Montenegrin branch of World War II for the Partisans and was the Yugoslav Communist League.30 Prime Minister of Yugoslavia from 1963 to 1967. 17 Raif Dizdarević 11th President of the Presidency of Yugoslavia Milan Pančevski Dizdarević was an important Bosnian leader 13th and Final Chairman of the Presidium of who had several important roles in Yugoslav the League of Communists of Yugoslavia leadership throughout his career. After serving Macedonian leader who served as the final as the Chairman of the Presidency of Bosnia leader of Yugoslavia’s Communist Party before and Herzegovina from 1978 to 1982, he served it dissolved in January 1990. Before then, he as Yugoslavia’s Foreign Minister and Collective was also the President of the League of President.31 Communists of Macedonia from 1984 to 1986.18

24 “Ivica Racan,” Wikipedia. L ast accessed August 25 2018.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivica_Ra%C4%8Dan. 25 Ibid 26 Viktor Meier, Y ugoslavia ­ A History of its Demise (London: Routledge, 1999). 27 T he International Who's who: 1990­91. Europa Publications Limited, 1990. 15 “Vojislav Seselj,” Wikipedia. L ast accessed August 25 2018. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vojislav_%C5%A0e%C5%A1elj 16 Admir Muslimovic, "Vojislav Seselj: Nationalist Whose Dream Didn't Come True". Balkan Transitional Justice, A pril 9, 2018, http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/vojislav­seselj­nationalist­whose­dream­didn­t­come­true­04­04­2018 17 “Petar Stambolic,” Wikipedia. L ast modified August 10 2018. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petar_Stamboli%C4%87 18 “Timeline of the History of Macedonia.” HistoryofMacedonia.org, 2013, www.historyofmacedonia.org/ConciseMacedonia/timeline.html. 28 “Gojko Susak,” Wikipedia. L ast accessed August 25 2018. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gojko_%C5%A0u%C5%A1ak 29 “Prime Minister Duško Marković ­ Biography.” Prime Minister of Montenegro, last modified 2016, www.predsjednik.gov.me/en/primeminister/Prime_Minister_s_biography. 30 Nenand Pejic, "The Smartest Man In The Balkans", R adio Free Europe, October 17 2008, https://www.rferl.org/a/The_Smartest_Man_In_The_Balkans/1330606.html. 31 “Raif Dizdarevic,” Wikipedia. L ast accessed August 25 2018. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raif_Dizdarevi%C4%87

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Kiro Gligorov Hamdija Pozderac Former President of the Assembly of the Former President of Bosnia and Herzegovina Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia Pozderac was an important Bosnian leader who Gligorov was an important Macedonian leader was President of the Republic from 1971 to who had several important roles in Yugoslav 1974 and was later Vice President of Yugoslavia leadership before emerging in Macedonian during the 1980s. A long­time ally of Tito and politics by the end of the 1980s. Earlier in his leader in Bosnian as well as Yugoslav career, he served as the President of the Communist politics, Pozderac stood firmly Assembly of the Socialist Federal Republic of against the rise of nationalism and particularly Yugoslavia as well as the Finance Minister for the rise of Slobodan Milošević. While Pozderac Yugoslavia.19 was forced out of politics in 1987 due to the Agrokomerc Affair, there have been rumors that he is seeking to re­enter politics.32

19 The Associated Press, “Kiro Gligorov, Ex­Leader of Macedonia, Dies at 94.” T he New York Times, January 2 2012, https://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/03/world/europe/kiro­gligorov­macedonia­president­in­1990s­dies­at­94.html. 32 Mile Stojić. "Ally of Bosnia's unity". Bosnian Institute, last modified 2004. http://www.bosnia.org.uk/bosrep/report_format.cfm?articleid=1060&reportid=163.

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Topic A : The End of Communism in Yugoslavia

Introduction after the fascists installed a puppet regime in Croatia, called the Ustase, Serbian By the end of January 1990, the resistance sprung up.36 Communist Party of Yugoslavia ceased to There were two main groups of exist, presenting a dire challenge for a Serbian resistance. One was the Chetniks, country that had been ruled as a who were loyal to the Serbian royal family communist state since the end of World who had ruled the nation since the end of War II. While not as repressive as the World War I.37 While the main goal of the Soviet or Chinese regimes, Yugoslavia’s Chetniks was nominally to liberate Communist Party was successful at holding Yugoslavia of Nazi domination, many were the country’s many ethnic groups together more worried about another resistance for almost half a century. No one knows group, the Partisans.38 The Partisans were a what the end of unified communist Communist group led by Josip Broz Tito, government in Yugoslavia will mean, and the leader of the underground KPJ, or thus it is up to you to determine the future Communist Party of Yugoslavia.39 Tito, a of Yugoslavia. Croatian­Slovene peasant, had become a radical communist after being captured by the Russians during World War I.40 Besides

Historical Background ideological differences on the possibility of Beginning of Communism in social revolution, the Partisans claimed they Yugoslavia were fighting for all Yugoslav ethnicities and religions under Nazi domination, while After World War I, the state of the Chetniks were especially focused on Yugoslavia, a state for the South Slavic protecting Serbians.41 people, was created by uniting Croats, Since the Partisans were fighting for Bosnians, and Slovenians with the an ideology instead of a nationality, it was pre­existing Serbian kingdom.33 The Croats, easier to move their strongholds when Bosnians, and Slovenians had been part of under attack from the Axis powers.42 Since the defeated Austro­Hungarian empire the beginning of resistance in 1941, there before World War I, but were now under was open conflict between the two sides the rule of the Serbian royal family.34 In with the Partisans upset about a group that 1941, the state fell apart after being invaded by the Nazis and Mussolini’s Italy.35 Shortly 36 Ibid. 37 Stephen A. Hart, “Partisans: War in the Balkans 1941 ­ 1945,” 33 “The Breakup of Yugoslavia, 1990­1992.” U.S. Department of BBC, last modified February 17 2011, State, accessed August 28 2018. www.bbc.co.uk/history/worldwars/wwtwo/partisan_fighters_0 history.state.gov/milestones/1989­1992/breakup­yugoslavia 1.shtml. 34 Ibid. 38 Ibid. 35 Tim Judah. Yugoslavia: 1918 ­ 2003.” BBC, last modified 39 Ibid. February 17 2011, 40 Ibid. www.bbc.co.uk/history/worldwars/wwone/yugoslavia_01.sht 41 Ibid. ml. 42 Ibid.

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only fought for Serbs while the Chetniks gave more power to workers to control were upset that communist ideology had their own means of production.49 no place for a royal family.43 By 1942, the From 1963 to 1972, Tito was forced to Chetniks were working ever more closely purge centralist and decentralist radicals with the Axis powers, which forced the from the ranks of the Communist party.50 British to stop sending them aid and gave Some in Belgrade were upset that his move the leadership of the resistance movement away from Soviet­style central planning to the Partisans.44 was undermining central leadership while In December 1943, the British leaders in the non­Serbian states often officially started to supply the Partisans wanted further decentralization.51 Tito with aid, which eventually led the other responded to these threats to his rule by Allied powers to come onboard as well.45 introducing “symmetrical federalism” After the Soviet Red Army helped the which would alternate power between the Partisans fully rid Yugoslavia of the Axis six internal states after his death.52 powers, Tito’s forces hunted down the remaining Chetnik and Ustase leaders, Foreign Relations painting the way for a half­century of 46 Fortunately for the West, Yugoslavia Communist rule. and the Soviet Union were often at loggerheads after the falling out between Yugoslavia under Tito Stalin and Tito.53 After World War II, Stalin Once Tito fell out with Stalin in 1948, became increasingly upset with Tito, he was able to chart his own unique course especially over what Stalin saw as risky for Yugoslavia, separate from Soviet foreign policy adventures in Greece and domination as leader of the League of Albania. In 1948, Stalin attempted to purge Communists of Yugoslavia (KPY). the KPY leadership since they were still Nevertheless, his nation was still very part of the Comintern, the international much a communist state.47 Compared to the socialist organization run from Moscow. Communist nations in the Warsaw Pact, This effort ultimately failed to hurt Tito as Yugoslavians saw relatively higher living he controlled the Yugoslav army, the KPY, standards and were free to travel to the and the secret police.54 Soon after, the KPY West for work or holiday.48 Early in the was kicked out of the Comintern and 1950s, Tito moved away from the Yugoslavia slowly drew closer to the West centralized economic planning of the Soviet with Stalin even considering armed Union, including their five­year plans, and intervention at one point.55 In the early 1950s, American aid flowed into Yugoslavia and the country signed security guarantees with the Greeks and Turks soon after Tito ended his support 43 Stephen A. Hart, “Partisans: War in the Balkans 1941 ­ 1945,” BBC, last modified February 17 2011, www.bbc.co.uk/history/worldwars/wwtwo/partisan_fighters_0 1.shtml. 49 Ivo Banac. “Josip Broz Tito.” E ncyclopædia Britannica, last 44 Ibid. accessed August 25, 2018, 45 Ibid. www.britannica.com/biography/Josip­Broz­Tito 46 Ibid. 50 Ibid. 47 Tim Judah. Yugoslavia: 1918 ­ 2003.” BBC, last modified 51 Ibid. February 17 2011, 52 Ibid. www.bbc.co.uk/history/worldwars/wwone/yugoslavia_01.sht 53 Ibid. ml. 54 Ibid. 48 Ibid. 55 Ibid.

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for Communist rebels in these countries.56 same way Tito had. This was due to a lack After Stalin’s death, there was a short of capable leaders after Tito’s death caused détente with the Soviets, but this only by frequent purges of many prominent lasted until the Hungarian uprising of 1956, leaders as well as the late age of many of which the Soviets blamed on Yugoslavia.57 Tito’s closest advisors.63 The system of With Soviet relations still better than they rotating presidencies left the country with had been under Stalin, Tito no longer saw weak leadership, gridlocked decision the need to grow closer with the West.58 making, and created little continuity over Instead, he became one of the founders of time.64 the non­aligned movement with Gamal In 1987, the nationalist Slobodan Abdel Nasser of Egypt and Jawaharlal Milosevic became the president of Serbia, Nehru of India.59 heating up the nationalist tensions and undermining the unity of the country.65 Leadership After Tito Besides nationalist rhetoric that alienated On May 4 th, 1980, Tito died at the age many non­Serbs, Milosevic was also a defender of traditional socialist values such of 87, leaving behind a country that had 66 known only one leader since the end of as heavy state economic intervention. World War II.60 While his death was not a Though liberal movements were gaining surprise given his age, there was still no momentum in Croatia and Slovenia, clear or established successor. Immediately Milosevic stayed a popular communist leader through the fall of the Communist after his death, the individual republics 67 demanded the rights that were nominally Party of Yugoslavia in January 1990. given to them under the constitution to be implemented following Tito’s death.61 The first leader after Tito’s death, Lazar Structure of the Kolisevski, lasted only 10 days before Communist State Yugoslavia began a rotating system of year­long presidencies.62 Politics The rotating presidency system Unique to Yugoslavia, substantial 68 ensured that each of the six republics had political power was given to local groups. no more than five years between stints in Due to this decentralization, national power. Unfortunately, no president was politics were only effective when Tito able to hold the country together in the forced through decisions with his strong leadership and charisma.69 By 1970, CIA 56 Fred Warner Neal, “The Foreign Policy of Yugoslavia,”A merican intelligence and even mainstream Universities Field Staff, O ctober 6, 1954, American media had realized that the http://www.icwa.org/wp­content/uploads/2015/10/FWN­3.pd f 57 Ivo Banac. “Josip Broz Tito.” E ncyclopædia Britannica, last 63 Kelly Hignett, “The Death of Tito: the Death of Yugoslavia?” accessed August 25, 2018, The View East, J uly 27, 2011, www.britannica.com/biography/Josip­Broz­Tito thevieweast.wordpress.com/2011/07/27/the­death­of­tito­the­de 58 Ibid. ath­of­yugoslavia/ 59 Ibid. 64 Ibid. 60 “Timeline Yugoslavia,” T imelines of History, l ast accessed 65 John B Allcock, “Slobodan Milošević,” E ncyclopædia Britannica, August 28 2018, last accessed August 25, 2018, www.timelines.ws/countries/YUGOSLAVIA.HTML www.britannica.com/biography/Slobodan­Milosevic. 61 Tim Judah. Yugoslavia: 1918 ­ 2003.” BBC, last modified 66 Ibid. February 17 2011, 67 Ibid. www.bbc.co.uk/history/worldwars/wwone/yugoslavia_01.sht 68 “Yugoslavia, Ch 4. Government and Politics: Josip Broz Tito,” ml. country­data.com, l ast modified December 1990, 62 Berard Cook, E urope Since 1945: An Encyclopedia. R outledge, http://www.country­data.com/cgi­bin/query/r­14877.html 2001. 69 Ibid.

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Communist Party of Yugoslavia was better liberalize and introduce reforms, allowing a characterized as a collection of six hint of capitalism by letting people own communist parties that represented small businesses.76 However, these reforms Slovenia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Serbia achieved little, as the government only (and its two autonomous regions, Kosovo allowed people to employ up to four and Vojvodina), Croatia, Macedonia, and people, hampering their ability to make any Montenegro.70 While Tito managed to hold meaningful profit.77 the country together with his charisma, the Even in the 1980s, while some regional communist parties could barely worked in the small private sector, most recognize verbal agreements with one people were employed by a government another.71 To prevent the fragmentation that did everything in its power to prevent that the Balkans were well known for, Tito unemployment. The government would planned a system before he died that would hire 100 people for a job that only required prevent any single republic from having too 10, and would help people find work or get much power over the others. While this money when they were unemployed.78 system prevented the emergence of a new Similar to other communist states, this dictator in the mold of Tito, each republic created a bad feedback loop. had a veto power, making it difficult to Individuals had little incentive to accomplish important policy changes.72 work, but the government had promised to take care of everyone so they couldn’t The Economy afford to let people starve on the streets. In the immediate aftermath of World Yugoslavians were better off than those in War II, Tito’s government meticulously the Soviet Union, but only at the expense of turned Yugoslavia into a proper socialist an economy built on false foundations that would create a mountain of debt for future state with state control of infrastructure, 79 property, the money supply and most of generations to pay off. Even though Tito the rest of the economy.73 When Yugoslavia did everything he could to hide the split from the Soviets in 1948, Tito crumbling foundations of Yugoslavia’s introduced programs to decentralize the economy, unemployment had risen to 12% state that were anemic to Soviet or Chinese by 1980, inflation was on the rise, and 74 Yugoslavians were emigrating in ever planners. Workers were given more 80 control over the means of production with greater numbers. These troubles would worker’s councils responsible for facilitate the conditions for even greater adequately distributing profits instead of economic calamity in the 1980s as the state.75 To save the economy, the Yugoslavia and communism headed government was eventually forced to towards a crisis.

70 Hal Ford, “Yugoslavia: The Outworn Structures,” C entral Intelligence Agency, N ovember 20 1970, https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/esau­46.pdf 76 Rade, “Living with Communism in Yugoslavia: Times of 71 Ibid. Control,” interview by Mindy Robins, C lark Humanities Oral 72 “Yugoslavia, Ch 4. Government and Politics: Josip Broz Tito,” Histories, country­data.com, l ast modified December 1990, http://www.clarkhumanities.org/oralhistory/2006/0504.html http://www.country­data.com/cgi­bin/query/r­14877.html 77 Ibid. 73 Anton Cebalo, “A Brief Economic Analysis of Yugoslavia,” last 78 Ibid. modified January 4, 2013. 79 Predag Rajsic, “The Economy of Tito’s Yugoslavia: Delaying the https://antoncebalo.wordpress.com/2013/01/04/a­brief­econom Inevitable Collapse,” last modified March 9, 2014, ic­analysis­of­the­yugoslav­experiment/ http://predragrajsic.blogspot.com/2014/03/the­economy­of­tito 74 Ibid. s­yugoslavia.html. 75 Ibid. 80 Ibid.

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The Last Days of nationalism as a political tool to amass his own power. As Serbia’s power in the Communism in Yugoslavia federal government grew and it began Yugoslavia remained stable and treating Albanian protestors harshly, other relatively successful up until Tito’s death in republics also took up nationalist 1980 when a number of factors resulted in movements. The power of nationalist destabilization and fragmentation. parties was further fueled by the collapse of Throughout the 1980s, growing ethnic communism in Eastern Europe and the tensions, a failing economy, and a changing acceptance of some opposition parties in international arena all served to undermine Slovenia and Croatia by the end of the the carefully calibrated rule of the League 1980s. of Communists of Yugoslavia. As the federal system weakened, varying perceptions of the state and its role 81 emerged, generating even more political Domestic Politics contention. Serbia advocated a strong When President Tito died, the federal state with a powerful central institutions that he left behind weren’t government, while Slovenia and Croatia effective enough to maintain the strength of envisioned increased independence or the Communist Party or the stability of the even, in Croatia’s case, full independence. nation. The combination of an ineffective Croatia’s desire for secession was further institutional structure and rising nationalist complicated by the substantial population movements resulted in the destabilization of Serbs who resided there and wanted to of the League of Communists of remain a part of the federation with Serbia. Yugoslavia. With every republic within Yugoslavia In an effort to create a balance holding a veto power, it proved very between the different ethnic groups, Tito difficult for the Slovenes and Croats to organized several institutions in unusual compromise with the Serbians, not to ways, which ultimately made them too mention the other stakeholders at the table. cumbersome to effectively dispel the rising number of issues facing the country. For 82 instance, the Collective Presidency, which Economy rotated the position of President every Upon Tito’s death in 1980, Yugoslavia entered a harsh recession that twelve months, lacked the necessary 83 consistency and stability to be truly further compromised its stability. The effective as ethnic tensions began to country built its economy upon a escalate. foundation of constantly increasing foreign Another primary factor that debt such that ever­increasing debt was unraveled the Communist Party was the required for the economy’s survival. In the rise of nationalist movements among the 1970s, the Yugoslav trade deficit was also different republics. Slobodan Milosevic, increasing at an even faster pace than the who was appointed as Communist Party foreign debt, so the majority of inflow of chief in 1986 and then President of Serbia in 82 Predag Rajsic, “The Economy of Tito’s Yugoslavia: Delaying the 1989, began stimulating Serbian Inevitable Collapse,” last modified March 9, 2014, http://predragrajsic.blogspot.com/2014/03/the­economy­of­tito s­yugoslavia.html. 81David Anderson, “The Collapse of Yugoslavia: Background and 83 D avid Anderson, “The Collapse of Yugoslavia: Background and Summary,” P arliamentary Research Serviece, N ovember 22, 1995, Summary,” P arliamentary Research Serviece, N ovember 22, 1995, https://www.aph.gov.au/binaries/library/pubs/rp/1995­96/96 https://www.aph.gov.au/binaries/library/pubs/rp/1995­96/96 rp14.pdf rp14.pdf

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foreign funds came from unsustainable same time, Yugoslavia’s ideological and borrowing. In the 1980s, because of the ethnic closeness to the Soviets, as well as its massive debt Yugoslavia had incurred from explicit neutrality, allowed Yugoslavia to IMF loans, the IMF requested that the play competing sides against each other in nation liberalize its economy. Many parts of the Cold War. the country began reducing subsidies, One of Tito’s primary tools for privatizing, and opening more trade to maintaining stability was reminding his foreign capital. These reforms, however, population of its external threats. The only exacerbated social, political, and credible threat of Soviet aggression allowed economic tensions. The Oil Crisis of the Tito to unite the various ethnic groups and 1970s additionally severely weakened the quell potentially dangerous nationalist nation’s economy leading up to Tito’s movements by convincing the Yugoslav death, and the energy crisis and Western people that Soviet invasion would be far embargos would later on fuel rising more damaging than any internal threat. 84 unemployment rates. The Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia During this time, the country highlighted the external threat and made endured increased emigration, reduced maintaining stability and unification within salaries, poor living conditions, extensive the nation much easier. foreign debt, and significant food shortages. However, the late 1980s marked a Inflation also rose dramatically, and the time of drastic social and political change. government found itself unable to cope, Gorbachev had initiated his Glasnost policy choosing to print more currency and only and was slowly allowing liberalization in 85 worsening the issue. In addition, the the USSR. He was vocal about adopting a country had huge economic disparities, non­interventionist foreign policy, which causing frustration among richer regions eliminated the external threat that Tito had for having to subsidize poorer areas. For largely depended on to maintain unity. As instance, Slovenia’s Gross National Product a result, nationalist movements gained (GNP) was twice the average in Yugoslavia, momentum and ethnic conflict escalated. while Kosovo’s GNP was only a third of the As the Cold War ended, and average. Yugoslavia was no longer needed to act as a buffer between Washington and Moscow, Foreign Policy86 the US ceased its financial support and Throughout the Cold War, shifted its attention away from the region. Yugoslavia functioned as a buffer between With the loss of both the unifying external the United States and Russia. Both Tito’s threat and the influx of foreign funds from rejection of Soviet control and the strategic the United States, Yugoslavia’s location of Yugoslavia on the Balkan destabilization worsened. Peninsula attracted allies from the West As for the Europeans, the European who recognized the essential role that Union also did little to prevent Yugoslavia’s Yugoslavia could play in Europe. At the fragmentation. Some member states encouraged separation and the European 84 Anton Cebalo, “A Brief Economic Analysis of Yugoslavia,” last Community wasn’t persistent enough with modified January 4, 2013. negotiations to be effective at finding a https://antoncebalo.wordpress.com/2013/01/04/a­brief­econom ic­analysis­of­the­yugoslav­experiment/ peaceful settlement for the rising tensions 85 Ibid. in Yugoslavia. 86 C enter for European Studies, “Background: Tito’s Yugoslavia,” last accessed August 28 2018. https://europe.unc.edu/background­titos­yugoslavia/.

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Questions to Consider

1. What sort of political system should 2. Can democracy work in multi­ethnic Yugoslavia follow after the end of Yugoslavia? Communism? Fragmented among several different states The system currently used in Yugoslavia has and ethnic groups, it is difficult to hold proven cumbersome, especially as so many Yugoslavia together without a strong leader more decisions need to be made about or other kinds of institutions. Democracy may Yugoslavia’s future. This committee must be a potential means to balance power determine to what extent elements of the between these many groups, or it may result current system should be preserved to in majoritarian rule that pushes out several maintain stability or changed to increase minority ethnic groups. New democratic flexibility. institutions, if put in place must be carefully constructed to balance these concerns.

3. Should Communists be allowed to take part in 4. Can the Federation of Yugoslavia survive the new government? with some republics communist and others As communism falls abroad, Yugoslavia liberal democracies? should reflect upon the effectiveness of its Communism and liberal democracy have philosophy, as well as the practical political been painted to be incompatible abroad. benefits and costs of continuing to allow Within a single country, it may prove difficult Communists to be included in government. to make decisions effectively and further tear For example, it may be difficult to work with the country apart. However, if only one may rising Western powers if Yugoslavia survive within Yugoslavia, choosing between continues to be considered a communist the two may also cause further division power. within the country.

5. How can Yugoslavia balance the needs of its 6. How should Yugoslavia address growing individual nations as well as ensure success foreign debt obligations? for the country as a whole? Yugoslavia’s economy is increasingly reliant Certain nations within Yugoslavia require on debt to nations and organizations abroad more attention than others to succeed, to sustain itself. This has meant being especially economically. Beyond that, others increasingly beholden to these groups’ have growing nationalistic movements that interests. However, it should be considered should be attended to if Yugoslavia is to that the social programs that could remain united. potentially be ended so as to lower these debt obligations are fundamental to public support for the government.

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Concluding Remarks

As the beginning of the end of the Soviet Union looks ever more likely, Yugoslavia will have to face similar questions about the future of its Communist regime. While the League of Communists of Yugoslavia has now been officially dissolved, there are still powerful Communist parties in several of Yugoslavia’s constituent republics. Determining the future of communism in Yugoslavia is a vital component in determining the future of the state itself. Without communism to hold the state together, there is an increased chance for ethnic conflict. On the other hand, in the republics without strong Communist parties, we have already seen liberal democratic forces coming to power. Both futures must be considered when deciding the future of the Balkans. ∎

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Topic B : Ethnic Conflict in the Balkans

Introduction the beginning of the Balkan wars. They succeeded in pushing the Ottomans out of For centuries, the Balkans have been Europe, but soon after began to fight home to many different ethnicities and amongst each other. The month­long religions, leading to a long history of conflict between Greece, Serbia, and conflict. When ethnic and religious tensions Bulgaria became known as the Second once again began rising in the 1980s, the Balkan War.88 memories of past conflict were still fresh in Before the Balkan wars began, the minds of many in the region. Austria­Hungary annexed Bosnia and Herzegovina, which was previously under Ottoman control. Many Serbian nationalists Historical Background were unhappy with the annexation, History of the Balkans87 believing instead that Bosnia and Over a millennia ago, the Balkans Herzegovina should have become part of were part of the Byzantine Empire. As the the newly independent Serbian nation. One empire’s power decreased, independent of these nationalists assassinated Archduke Slavic states began emerging in the Balkans. Franz Ferdinand, the heir to the A period over several centuries saw the Austro­Hungarian Empire, leading the sequential emergence and decline of the empire to declare war on Serbia, and Bulgarian, Croatian, Bosnian, and Serbian dragging the rest of world into World War I kingdoms. Many of these kingdoms through a web of international alliances.89 disappeared from the world map for During World War I the Balkan centuries, but this hasn’t stopped tensions states of Serbia, Greece, Montenegro, from coming to the surface today, with Albania, Romania, and Bulgaria were multiple Balkan nations claiming historical formed. Following the end of the war, the rights to the same pieces of land. Ottoman and Habsburg Empires were Later, the Ottoman Turks arrived in dissolved, making room for a unified the Balkans and nearly all of the Balkan Yugoslavia. However, the new nation was peoples became Turkish subjects. However, very unstable. It was unable to meet basic because the empire was governed indirectly agricultural needs, build solid political with local religious leaders assuming systems, or keep a lid over the simmering administrative roles, people were allowed ethnic tensions in the region. to maintain much of their ethnic and cultural identities. 88 Ishaan Tharoor. “The Balkan Wars: 100 Years Later, a History of In 1912, Montenegro declared war Violence.” T ime, October 8. 2012, on the Ottoman Empire, followed closely world.time.com/2012/10/08/the­balkan­wars­100­years­later­a­h istory­of­violence/. by Bulgaria, Greece, and Serbia, marking 89 Daniel Slotnik, “Franz Ferdinand, Whose Assassination Sparked a World War.” T he New York Times, 28 June 2016, 87 “The Balkan Crisis: A Brief History.” C NN, 1997, www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/obituaries/archives/ www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/1997/bosnia/history/ archduke­franz­ferdinand­world­war.

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This instability continued into World with one another. Serbs dominated politics, War II, growing even worse when the Axis leading Croats and Slovenes to grow Powers divided up the region. Slovenia, resentful of Serbian power and aggression. Kosovo, and Dalmatian (southern Croatia) Tensions generated a delicate political were given to Italy, Germany and Hungary environment in which distrust and political each took parts of Serbia, Macedonia was assassinations became the new norm.92 given to Bulgaria, and Croatia was granted The dynamics of World War II nominal independence under a fascist played an especially important role in regime called the Ustaze. Not surprisingly, shaping ethnic relationships in Yugoslavia. resistance movements emerged throughout Most notable was Croatia’s adoption of Yugoslavia against their fascist occupiers. Nazi ideas of ethnic purity. With Nazi However, ethnic and political disunity support, Croatia declared itself an produced two separate movements, the independent state and began expelling Chetniks, comprised primarily of Serbs and Serbs, forcing them to convert to Roman monarchists, and the Partisans, Catholicism, and placing them in Communists who were made up of a concentration camps. broader swath of Yugoslavians and no As President of Yugoslavia, Tito was longer supported a monarchical system of able to keep ethnic rivalries in check. government. Conflict eventually broke out People began identifying themselves as between the two factions which continued Yugoslav more than as members of their throughout the war, although the Partisans respective ethnic communities, cities ultimately won support from the Soviet became more ethnically mixed, and Union as well as the United States and intermarriage became increasingly Britain. Josip Broz Tito, the leader of the common. However, upon Tito’s death in Partisan forces, was recognized as the 1980, many leaders began reviving and Prime Minister of Yugoslavia by the Allied manipulating nationalist sentiment to gain Powers and assumed control of the country power, championing ethnic identity over a following the end of World War II.90 unified Yugoslav identity.

Ethnic Tensions Leading Religious Tensions in Yugoslavia93 up to the 1980s Historically, the Balkans have seen In 1918 immediately following the frequent tension between the three major end of World War I, the Kingdom of the religious groups in the region: Roman Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes, later known as Catholics, Orthodox Christians, and Yugoslavia, was established. The kingdom Muslims. When the Roman Empire split was comprised of the formerly independent into the Western Roman Empire and the kingdoms of Serbia and Montenegro as Eastern Roman Empire (eventually known well as the Balkan territories formerly as the Byzantine Empire), the Balkans were under the control of the Austria­Hungary divided along religious lines. When the Empire.91 Throughout the 1920s and 1930s, Ottomans invaded the region later on, they the various ethnic groups lived tenuously 92 Encyclopedia.com, “Multi­Ethnic Conflict: Yugoslavia.” last modified 2007, 90 World War II Database, “Yugoslavia,” last accessed September www.encyclopedia.com/social­sciences/news­wires­white­paper 5 2018, ww2db.com/country/yugoslavia. s­and­books/multi­ethnic­conflict­yugoslavia. 91 “Kingdom of Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes.” E ncyclopædia 93 Jennifer Kayongo, “Religion’s Role in Yugoslavia during and Britannica, 25 Jan. 2011, following the Communist Era,” last accessed September 5, 2018, www.britannica.com/place/Kingdom­of­Serbs­Croats­and­Slove https://web.stanford.edu/class/e297c/war_peace/confrontation nes. /hformeryugoslavia.html.

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introduced Islam to the region, dividing the While Yugoslavia was ruled from Belgrade, Balkans once again, this time between the capital of Serbia, many Serbs adamantly Christians and Muslims. believed that they did not have the amount The period following World War II of power they deserved in a region where during Tito’s communist rule introduced they were the most powerful republic. With several factors to the region’s religious the rise of Slobodan Milošević and other dynamics that became largely responsible nationalist Serbian leaders by the end of the for the nation’s tensions today. In the 1960s, 1980s, the forces of ethnic conflict were restrictions on Yugoslav citizens began to quickly appearing in the heart of relax. Citizens were allowed to travel Southeastern Europe.94 abroad more freely, read Western literature, and buy foreign newspapers. Religious Slobodan Milošević freedoms also increased during this time: As the dominant ethnic group in churches could publish literature, religious Yugoslavia, the Serbs had a long, fraught education was tolerated, religious schools relationship with many of the other ethnic were allowed to expand, and clergy and religious groups in the Federal members could travel abroad more freely. Republic of Yugoslavia. By the end of the The Yugoslav government also officially 1980s, it was becoming increasingly clear recognized Muslim citizens as a nationality. that a multi­ethnic Yugoslavia was on the Increased religious freedoms along with verge of collapse. Whether run by a Muslim recognition fueled tensions communist or liberal democratic ideology, between the three major religious groups Slobodan Milošević made it harder and and also lent support to growing nationalist harder for non­Serbs to see a place for sentiments throughout the region. themselves in his new Yugoslavia. After This growing nationalism boiled quickly rising through the ranks of the over after Tito’s death. Religious conflicts League of Communists of Serbia, he reemerged, and political parties became became their leader in 1986.95 He brought a more religiously nationalistic, often times much more nationalist tone to the catering to specific religious groups. leadership, attempting to undermine the Historically, Croatia and Slovenia have collective presidency that had been put in been Roman Catholic; Serbia, Macedonia, place after Tito’s death. and Montenegro have been Orthodox While attending a party conference Catholic, while Bosnia has been split in Albanian­dominated Kosovo in 1987, he between the two Catholic sects and Islam. experienced first­hand a riot by Serbians in These religious affiliations tended to go the semi­autonomous province, angry at together with nationalist affiliations, what they saw as mistreatment by the especially against the minority populations Muslim Albanian majority.96 After this living in every individual republic in the episode in Kosovo, he became a staunch Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. defender of Serbians, a controversial policy

The Rise of Serbian Nationalism 94 “The Breakup of Yugoslavia, 1990­1992.” U.S. Department of The Serbs had long been the State, accessed August 28 2018. https://history.state.gov/milestones/1989­1992/breakup­yugosl dominant political, economic, and cultural avia power within the federal state of 95 “The Breakup of Yugoslavia, 1990­1992.” U.S. Department of State, accessed August 28 2018. Yugoslavia, a situation that caused https://history.state.gov/milestones/1989­1992/breakup­yugosl increasing conflict after Tito’s death in 1980. avia 96 Ibid.

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amongst the governing Communist elite Support from Serbians and the who wanted to tamp down nationalist Gazimestan Speech sentiment.97 In public, he declared that “ At Whether in Serbia or spread out home and abroad, Serbia's enemies are amongst the other republics in Yugoslavia, massing against us. We say to them ‘We are Serbians generally supported Milošević’s not afraid. We will not flinch from battle’,” strong stance against the autonomy of and in private, “We Serbs will act in the Vojvodina and Kosovo. After the 1974 interest of Serbia whether we do it in constitution was instituted, Vojvodina and compliance with the constitution or not, Kosovo had been given their long sought whether we do it in compliance in the law autonomy from the Socialist Republic of or not, whether we do it in compliance with Serbia, which struck at the heart of Serbian party statutes or not.”98 ,99 The riots in perceptions of national power and their Kosovo and his subsequent remarks on rightful place in Yugoslavia. When defending Serbian sovereignty brought Milošević burst onto the political scene in Milošević into the spotlight and gave him a the late 1980s and argued that Kosovo and platform to attack non­Serbs in Yugoslavia Vojvodina belonged fully in Serbia, he had who he claimed were threatening the a willing audience amongst millions of existence of Serbians. He used the episode angry Serbians. to force Kosovo and Vojvodina to June 1989 may have proved to be a reintegrate into Serbia, a dangerous step for critical turning point in the relationship stability in Yugoslavia since their between Serbia and the other republics autonomous status had been within Yugoslavia. In June, Milošević gave constitutionally mandated since 1974.100 If a speech to one million people at Milošević could upend the Constitution Gazimestan, the battlefield where the whenever he chose, many wondered what Serbians had been defeated by the would stop him from ending the collective Ottomans 600 years earlier in 1389.101 For presidency that gave each of the six Serbians, the spot was hallowed ground, a constituent republics a turn at leading the place that perhaps explained the hopes and country. By mid­1989, Milošević had also fears of their people better than any other.102 put allies in charge in Montenegro, The purpose of Milošević’s speech was to meaning that he essentially controlled four commemorate the 600th anniversary of the out of the eight votes on the collective battle, a battle that essentially ended the presidency. This undermined the idea of Serbia as an independent political legitimacy of the system and made leaders entity until the 19th century.103 Milošević in Macedonia, Bosnia, Croatia, and Slovenia turned the speech into a grandiose defense prepare for a future where they would no of Serbian sovereignty with thinly veiled longer tolerate rule from Belgrade. threats at the other republics within Yugoslavia, many of whom had leaders uneasily listening on­stage with Milošević.104 He threatened, “Serbia… had 97 John R. Lampe, Y ugoslavia as History: Twice There Was a Country. until now succeeded in bettering its Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000, 347. 98 T he Death of Yugoslavia. British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC). 1995. 101 Marcus Tanner, “Slobodan Milosevic,” T he Independent, M arch 99 Sabrina P. Ramet, “The Three Yugoslavias: State­Building and 13, 2006, Legitimation.” Indiana University Press, 2006, 598. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/obituaries/slobodan­mil 100 “The Breakup of Yugoslavia, 1990­1992.” U.S. Department of osevic­6106725.html. State, accessed August 28 2018. 102 Ibid. https://history.state.gov/milestones/1989­1992/breakup­yugosl 103 Ibid. avia 104 Ibid.

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position within Yugoslavia by peaceful Yugoslav average, but this fell to 27% by means, without war. But armed conflict, he the 1980s.109 warned, could not be ruled out in the future.”105 This thinly­veiled threat and Foreign Factors other provocative statements clearly did While the weakening Soviet Union not sit well with the many non­Serbs in made Yugoslavia less critically important of Yugoslavia. a geopolitical pawn, the Reagan administration was still doing covert work to turn Yugoslavians against communism Opposition to Increasing and to turn the region into a Serbian Nationalism Western­oriented market economy.110 While By 1989, leaders in Croatia and Milošević and his Serbian nationalist allies Slovenia, and to a lesser extent in Bosnia were strong supporters of socialism and the and Macedonia, were furious at Milošević’s continuation of communist rule in strengthening power in four out of the eight Yugoslavia, liberalizing forces were gaining constituent republics of Yugoslavia, but the strength across the country, especially in the more economically advanced republics factors undermining the region’s ethnic 111 tensions had been simmering for years. of Croatia and Slovenia. American covert influence and the weakening influence of the Soviet Union may very well have Economic Factors played a role in helping liberalization Croatia and Slovenia had long been movements in western Yugoslavia, creating the most economically advanced regions in even more tension between the Balkans’ Yugoslavia due to their close geographic many ethnic groups. 106 proximity with Western Europe. By the 1980s, these differences were becoming Opposition in Slovenia and Croatia ever more apparent and Croats and Slovenes began to question why they were While Milošević was strengthening being held back by the poorer regions to his power in Serbia, Slovenia and Croatia their south and east. The Rand Corporation became supporters of the Albanian miners and Oxford University later simply called protesting in Kosovo over mistreatment by the problem a general “unproductiveness of Serbians, the latter of which were only a 107 minority of the population in the formerly the South.” In one 1987 poll, Slovenes 112 said that they saw more economic autonomous region. Leaders in Slovenia opportunity independent from Yugoslavia and Croatia even compared Milošević with than within it.108 While Slovenes and Croats Mussolini, attacks which worsened after his saw Yugoslavia holding them back, people in Kosovo and elsewhere used even worse 109 Ibid. statistics to justify their anger at the 110 Matthew Cooper, "Yugoslavia and the Betrayal of Democracy". Yugoslav state. In the post­war period, Oriental Review, F ebruary 28, 2014. https://orientalreview.org/2014/12/28/yugoslavia­and­the­betr Kosovo’s GDP per capita was 47% of the ayal­of­democracy/ 111 Henry Kamm, "Yugoslav republic jealously guards its gains". 105 Ibid. The New York Times, December 8, 1985, 106 Dejan Jović. Y ugoslavia: a state that withered away. Purdue https://www.nytimes.com/1985/12/08/world/yugoslav­republ University Press, 2009, 15 ic­jealously­guards­its­gains.html?ref=croatia. 107 Beth J. Asch, and Courtland Reichmann. E migration and Its 112 David Aikman, “Communism O Nationalism!,” T IME Effects on the Sending Country. Rand Corporation, 1994, 26 Magazine, October 24, 1988, 108 Dejan Jović. Y ugoslavia: a state that withered away. Purdue http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,968740,0 University Press, 2009, 15 0.html

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Gazimestan speech in June 1989.113 Milošević responded to the personal attacks by claiming that the Slovene leader, Milan Kučan, was supporting separatism in Slovenia and Kosovo which only further fueled the convictions of Slovenes and Kosovans, leading to calls in Kosovo to not only regain their autonomy within the Socialist Republic of Serbia, but to become the seventh republic within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.114 Back in February 1989, Kučan was becoming increasingly worried that Slovenia was next on Milošević’s list of attempted coups to put his allies in power.115 After a failed attempt at reconciliation with Milošević in Belgrade, he returned to Slovenia where he met with the democratic opposition forces to plan for a future outside of Yugoslavia.116 In December 1989, Milošević did indeed attempt to send his Serbian supporters to Slovenia to bring down Kučan in similar style to how they brought down Vllasi in Kosovo, but they were stopped at the Croatian border by police from the League of Communists of Croatia who were working closely with the League of Communists of Slovenia.117 The Croatian refusal to allow Milošević’s supporters to continue towards to Ljubljana to challenge Kučan with a “Rally of Truth” was a central discussion point at the 14th party conference in January 1990.

113 Ibid. 114 T he Death of Yugoslavia. British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC). 1995. 115 Ibid. 116Ibid. 117 Bozo Repe, "Historical Circumstances in Which "The Rally of Truth" in Ljubljana Was Prevented," J ournal of Criminal Justice and Security, 2010. https://web.archive.org/web/20131213053210/http://www.fvv. uni­mb.si/varstvoslovje/Abstract.aspx?cid=329

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Questions to Consider

1. How can a multi­ethnic democratic 2. What role should Serbia play in a new Yugoslavia avoid conflict? democratic nation? Tensions have been rising precipitously in Serbia represents the most powerful ethnic Yugoslavia between the many religious and group in Yugoslavia. It also has a rising ethnic groups within the country. If the nationalist movement that is tired of carrying country is to remain together, it must find a the weight of other parts of Yugoslavia. In a way to make all sides feel included. However, new democratic nation, depending on how it this may be impossible when each side does is constructed, may dominate political power not trust the other. or have less than perhaps those in Serbia believe it deserves.

3. What role should the nationalist leaders play 4. How do you reduce the economic disparities going forward? within Yugoslavia? Nationalist leaders are growing increasingly Tension within Yugoslavia is driven in part popular in their respective regions. Allowing because of huge economic disparities within them to grow may tear Yugoslavia apart. But Yugoslavia. Serbians, for example, believe it will be difficult to push them out in a that they are burdened by remaining within democratic nation when their popularity only Yugoslavia while others are resentful of their continues to grow. power. Reducing these disparities may be not only the moral decision, but also the most politically advantageous decision. But the means to do so may require taking away economic power from the Serbs and only further drive them away from remaining in Yugoslavia.

5. Is it possible to remain a united country 6. How should individual republics within despite these historic disagreements? Yugoslavia balance the needs of the many Discord has divided the many peoples of ethnic and religious groups within each? Yugoslavia for centuries. It will be Each individual republic is incredibly diverse. exceedingly difficult to forget past Even if Yugoslavia were to dissolve, each new wrongs for the sake of unity. The country would have to consider the delegates in this committee thus must be remaining ethnic tensions within its borders. particularly thoughtful in their choices to If Yugoslavia remains united, it may still unite this country together. prove strategic for these tensions to be dealt with more locally.

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Appendix

Map of Yugoslavia’s Ethnic Groups from the 1980 Census

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Concluding Remarks

As one can clearly see from the map above, Yugoslavia has a plethora of ethnic groups and the possibility of ethnic conflicts. Making matters worse, even if the end of communism resulted in the break­up of the federal republic, the six individual republics plus Kosovo and Vojvodina would still have an incredible amount of ethnic diversity. Whichever way you look at it, the ethnic realities of Southeastern Europe potentially present an insurmountable challenge to achieving peace in this region. Only you, the distinguished Yugoslavians invited to this special summit, have the opportunity to shape your people’s future. You are not only responsible for the fate of your individual republics, but also the fate of your political ideologies, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and perhaps the future stability of Europe and the wider world. Prepare diligently and we will soon meet to determine the future of the Balkans. ∎

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