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Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2020

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Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2020 CONFLICT TRENDS 03 2021 Visiting Address: Hausmanns gate 3 Address: Visiting Norway NO-0134 Oslo, 9229 Grønland, PO Box Institute Oslo (PRIO) Research Peace Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2020 www.prio.org/ConflictTrends Project Trends Conflict 2020 provided ample evidence that Brief Points conflict resolution is a long-term • There were 56 active conflicts re- venture, as the year was dominat- corded during the year, up from 55 ed by many of the same conflicts in 2019. that were present 30 years ago. A • The number of fatalities reported in 2020 dropped to under 50,000 for number of these conflicts can be the first time since 2012. traced to the demise of the Soviet • Afghanistan remains the deadliest ISBN: Union, while another set of endur- conflict, with about 40% of all casu- 978-82-343-0206-0 (online) 978-82-343-0205-3 (print) ing conflicts are found across Afri- alties recorded in 2020. ca. The Islamic State (IS) remains • There were eight wars active in a global problem; it was involved 2020, up from seven in 2019 and six in 2018. in 16 conflicts in 2020. • IS was involved in 16 conflicts in 2020. These conflicts account for 13% of all casualties. Håvard Strand University of Oslo & PRIO Håvard Hegre Uppsala University & PRIO Minor conflict (25+) 140,000 Trends in 2020 War (1,000+) 50 120,000 On the whole, the global level of armed con- Number of conflicts 40 flicts in 2020 was similar to 2019, showing ap- 100,000 proximately the same number of conflicts, wars 80,000 30 and casualties. In Figure 1, we illustrate conflict trends from 1989 to 2020: while the number 60,000 20 Battle deaths of conflicts has risen over this time period, the 40,000 number of casualties is slightly down. 10 20,000 The data used in this policy brief were collected 0 0 by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), which records and classifies armed conflicts 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 around the world for the period 1945–2020. The Figure 1: Number of battle deaths and conflicts, 1989–2020. Source: UCDP database (ucdp.uu.se) UCDP distinguishes between wars and minor conflicts: wars are defined by battle-related The war in Somalia has been ongoing for more late 1980s and exploded in 1992. By 1994, a deaths (BRD) in excess of 1,000 per year, while than 30 years and has been classified as a war truce was signed, which effectively recognized minor conflicts account for BRD between 25 every year since 2005, recording, on average, ap- separatist control over the region, but this truce and 1,000 annually. proximately 2,000 casualties every year for the did not result in any international recognition. last five years. 2020 recorded 56 active conflicts, which is a Islamic State record-high for the period covered by the UCDP. An intense war has raged in Yemen since 2015 Eight of these active conflicts were wars, com- when the Ansarallah group attempted a govern- A key reason for the increasing number of con- pared to seven wars in 2019 and six in 2018. The ment take-over, unsettling the sitting president flicts is the Islamic State, or IS. The nature of increase in the number of wars is worrisome. Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. The Yemeni govern- IS and their political claims are quite unique. Research shows that while minor conflicts have ment has been supported in this war by a Sau- While most insurgents are fighting to become little impact on societies, wars cause a number of di-led multinational alliance and the number of the government of a country (as in Yemen) or problems, often for a very long time. fatalities increased significantly between 2019 striving to achieve independence for a part of and 2020, from about 1,700 to more than 2,300. a country (as in Ethiopia), IS seeks to unite all Eight Wars Muslims into a new political entity that spans The war in Nigeria took a turn for the worse in and subsumes several countries under a new Of the eight wars recorded in 2020, two of these 2020. This is the second of two wars involving political form defined by adherence to Islam. saw a decline in fatalities from 2019, one was IS (which is also fighting in Syria). The conflict stable, three deteriorated, and we recorded two in Nigeria was dominated by the IS-allegiant As such, IS tends to fight not only governments previously inactive wars that restarted in 2020. Boko Haram, which achieved notoriety for its but also other rebel organizations, as we see in abduction of female school children in north- Syria. These conflict vectors add new layers of The war between the government of Afghani- ern Nigeria. 1,500 fatalities were recorded in complexity to all conflict resolution attempts stan and the Taliban was the most fatal conflict Nigeria in 2020, up 50% up from 2019 and al- and the mapping of conflicts. A number of loca- in 2020 for the second year in a row, with more most twice the figure from 2018. tions must be coded as parallel conflicts, since than 20,000 recorded fatalities. This number, IS and other rebel organizations fight for very however, was a significant decline from 29,000 Several of the most severe conflicts of the last different reasons. fatalities in 2019. At the same time, a parallel war 30 years have taken place in Ethiopia, many of between the government of Afghanistan and IS these involving neighboring Eritrea. In 2020, a Figure 2 separates the trends between IS and continues, but was not recorded as a war in 2020. secession conflict over the Tigray region (which more traditional organizations. The left panel borders Eritrea) was reignited and recorded ap- shows the fatalities involving IS (in blue) and The war in Syria over governance is among the proximately 1,300 BRDs. the orange shows all others. After the defeat of most severe civil wars in recent decades, with IS in Syria, we see a significant decline in the 3,500 casualties recorded in 2020. However, The war in Azerbaijan over the largely Arme- number of fatalities. this marks a continued and dramatic decline nian-speaking enclave Nagorno-Karabakh from the 65,000 recorded in 2014. As in Af- reignited in 2020. After Afghanistan, this was At the same time, the right panel shows the ghanistan, the Syrian government has a paral- the most severe war in 2020, with more than number of active conflicts involving IS. While lel conflict with IS, in which IS is attempting to 7,600 fatalities recorded. Historically, Nagorno- there has been an increase in the number of bring Syria into a new political entity. As in Af- Karabakh was considered part of Armenia but conflicts not involving IS as well, it is apparent ghanistan, this conflict did not cross the 1,000 transferred to Azerbaijan by the Soviet Union that the record level of active conflicts recorded BRD threshold in 2019, but did so in 2020. in 1920. The political conflict resurfaced in the in 2020 is largely due to the spread of IS. CONFLICT TRENDS 03 2021 www.prio.org/ConflictTrends New Conflicts in 2020 Figure 3 shows battle-related deaths and num- a pivotal role in supporting the victorious Azer- ber of conflicts between 1993 and 2020. The baijan. Among new conflicts in 2020, an internal yellow line represents conflicts that were active armed conflict broke out in Tanzania for the between 1989-1992 (old), and the blue line rep- The armed conflict in Ukraine did not reach first time. The only previous conflict involving resents new conflicts since 1993. the war threshold in 2020 but is also linked to Tanzania was an interstate conflict with Ugan- the breakup of the Soviet Union and Russian da in 1978, which led to the eventual demise With two exceptions, the old conflicts are more efforts to keep former Soviet republics within of Idi Amin. However, in 2020, a local branch severe than the new conflicts. Of the new con- its political sphere of influence. Similarly, the of IS was formed and began waging conflict in flicts, the deadliest were those that broke out in non-violent protests following the rigged elec- Tanzania that resulted in more than 25 BRDs. the wake of the Arab Spring (chiefly in Syria). tions in Belarus must be noted in this context. The spikes in 1999 and 2000 can be attributed Conflicts also sprung up in Algeria, Cameroon, to the violence between Ethiopia and Eritrea, The Horn of Africa is home to numerous ethnic Chad, DR Congo and Sudan, but none of these which is considered “new” because Eritrea is groups with competing claims for statehood. recorded more than 100 BRDs. Yemen and a new country with strong ties to the Eritrean For most of the 20th century, imperial Ethiopia Ethiopia also saw smaller conflicts reignite in war of secession from Ethiopia that ended in dominated the area. The old regime was toppled the wake of the larger ongoing wars. the early 1990s. by a communist rebellion in 1975, and followed by subsequent violent demands for indepen- Skirmishes between China and India resulted Remarkably, to date in 2021, more people have dence from a large number of these groups. The in 25 casualties in 2020. Obviously, armed con- been killed in the persistent wars that were ac- only group to successfully succeed were the Er- flict involving two nuclear powers is alarming, tive 30 years ago than all of the new conflicts itreans, who gained independence in 1993.
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