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Mexico's Lodging Moment

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Mexico's Lodging Moment Mexico’s Lodging Moment Equity Research / Real Estate February 16, 2015 Reinitiation Of Coverage By Pablo Duarte Hoteles City Express (HCITY) Real Estate FIBRA Inn (FINN) [email protected] This page intentionally left blank Equity Research MEXICAN LODGING SECTOR Lodging Sector February 16, 2015 Mexico’s Lodging Moment Reinitiation Of Coverage HCITY And FINN Change in Recommendation Change in T.P. Change in Estimates Quarterly Review Other FINN Buy Local Ticker FINN.13 ■ We are reinitiating coverage on FIBRA Inn (FINN) and Hoteles City Express (HCITY), two well positioned lodging players with aggressive long-term growth strategies. Price Target 2015 (MX$) 19.5 Last Price (MX$) 16.3 ■ We like HCITY on: i) its unique, profitable and scalable fully-integrated hotel Expected Return 19.6% business model, ii) its solid growth track record, reputation and position, iii) its Dividend Yield 2015 5.8% highly recognized brands, iv) its experienced mgmt., and v) its large diversification. Total Return 25.4% Market Cap (MX$ MM): 7,123 ■ FINN is now better positioned to capture a stronger growth from the consolidation Firm Value (MX$ MM): 7,747 of the local lodging industry, through: i) its diversified portfolio, ii) sound operating LTM Price Range (MX$): (13.30 - 17.96) capabilities, iii) tangible pipeline, and iv) enhanced organizational structure. Free Float: 83% ■ In this report we present a deep insight into the local lodging industry, including Avg. Daily Trade (MX$ MM): 9.7 among other topics: i) general overview on the sector, ii) analysis on historical investments from listed hotel companies and FIBRAs, iii) long-term growth drivers HCITY Buy of demand for lodging services, iv) growth plans of global hotel companies in the country, and v) Mexico’s 15 main lodging markets and submarkets. Local Ticker HCITY.* Price Target 2015 (MX$) 26.9 Attractive Lodging Industry Fundamentals. Mexico’s evolution over the last 30 years Last Price (MX$) 23.7 towards a more mature (service-oriented) economy, along with its achievement of a certain Expected Return 13.5% level of economic and political stability, is indicative that the country has reached an Dividend Yield 2015 0.0% inflection point for its lodging industry, the point at which a market evidences a boost in travel Total Return 13.5% and lodging. Mexico is poised to experience the faster, internally-driven economic growth Market Cap (MX$ MM): 9,120 experienced by the U.S. in the 1960s, when it reached maturity with an economy driven by Firm Value (MX$ MM): 10,002 tertiary activities (advanced personal and professional services, as well as experience-based LTM Price Range (MX$): (20.02 - 27.20) businesses). Free Float: 57% Avg. Daily Trade (MX$ MM): 10.1 The Mexican hotel industry, comprised by 510,296 rooms is characterized by being highly fragmented and by having low penetration levels. Independent (mom & pop) hotels represent 69% of the system-wide room supply, or ~80% leaving aside from the equation the markets of Monterrey and Mexico City, where the presence of chained hotels is stronger. The expected consolidation of the industry in the coming years represents attractive long-term growth opportunities for well positioned local lodging institutional players. Based on an analysis of infrastructure investments, expected population growth, and the application of a 4.7% CAGR to quality lodging supply for the period 2014-2022 (slightly above projected GDP growth), Jones Lang LaSalle estimates 155,256 net new quality hotel rooms in the country, from its current 350,744 rooms. Chained hotels are expected to present the highest growth rate, at 8.1%, particularly in regional markets (driven by the energy reform and the auto sector). The share of independent quality hotels will decrease from 55% to 42%. Outlook For 2015-2016 Remains Intact. Amidst lower oil prices and FX volatility, lodging companies have ratified their 2015-2016 expansion plans, including FINN and HCITY, supported by the solid momentum of the manufacturing sector and the positive longer term prospects from the energy reform in the country. Regarding the latter, hotel investments with exposure to this sector are not expected to be delayed due to their long-term view. Expected investments from the first round (first auction projects) of the energy reform in 2015 will not Pablo E. Duarte de León stop. However, we do believe that current oil prices will derive in a delay in other oil Real Estate production projects (CapEx reduction) due to the tighter short-term cash flow generation [email protected] from global oil companies. FINN’s growth plan considers an 88% growth in total hotels in +52 (55) 1103 6600 x4334 operation, reaching 64 by year-end 2016. HCITY will open 42 new construction hotels by 2016 according to its guidance, representing a 44% increase against the 96 hotels Actinver comprised in its portfolio. Guillermo Gonzalez Camarena 1200 Santa Fe, Mexico City, 01210 Actinver’s Equity Research Contents 4 Table of Contents The Lodging Industry ……..…………………………………. 7 Cyclicity, A Look At Its Inherent Risk And Opportunity 8-9 The Low Part Of The Cycle …...………………………………….. 8 Recovery, With A More Promissory Outlook …...…………….. 8-9 An Introduction …………….…………….………...…..………….. 10-18 Current Lodging Supply ………………...………….…………….. 10-11 Hotel Segments And Types ………………………..…………….. 11-12 Mexico’s Leading Hotel Chains …………………..….………..... 13-14 Top Industry Players: HCITY, FIHO, FINN And GHSF……….. 15-16 Historical Investments Of Listed Hotel Companies …...…….. 17-18 Mexico’s Hotel Industry, At Its Inflection Point …….…….. 19-44 Pablo Duarte Macro Outlook For 2015 ……..………………………….…..……. 19-20 Lodging Industry: Mexico’s Moment Has Arrived …...………. 21-44 The U.S. 1960s’ And U.K. 1980s’ Lodging Evolution Experience ………………………………………………………..... 21-22 Demographic Trend To Boost Demand For Hotel Services …... 23 Growing Middle-Income Class In Mexico …………………..…... 23-24 New Incentives For Home Ownership …………………………... 24 Mexico, A Magnet Of Foreign Direct Investment …………..…... 25-27 Competitive Labor Costs, Looking South To Mexico …...…. 25-26 Mexico Has Become A Clear Manufacturing Winner …...…. 27 A Stronger Investment In Infrastructure Is Coming ………..…... 27-38 Main Infrastructure Projects In Mexico …………...…………. 28-32 Improving The Mexican Rail Industry ….……………………. 32 The Energy Reform Will Bring Additional Investments In The Long Term ………………...………………………………. 33 The Mexican Auto Industry, Another Key Driver Of Growth 34-36 The Strategic Aerospace Industry ……...……………………. 37-38 5 The Bottom Line: Mexico’s Lodging Industry Growth Potential 39-44 Growth Plans Of Global Hotel Companies In Mexico …..…. 40 Location Of Investments / Market Opportunities …...………. 40-42 PAX Traffic Performance, Evinces The Greater Growth Prospect Markets ……………...………………………………. 43 Appreciation Potential In Local ADRs ….……………………. 44 Mexico’s Main Lodging Markets And Submarkets …...… 45-69 Nuevo Leon (North Region) .....………………………………….. 46-47 Mexico City (Central Region) ……...…………………………….. 48 Jalisco (Bajio Region) ………....………………………………….. 49 San Luis Potosi (North Region) ..……………………………….. 50-51 Guanajuato (Bajio Region) …...………………………………….. 52-53 State Of Mexico (Central Region) ……………………………….. 54-55 Queretaro (Bajio Region) …......………………………………….. 56 Tamaulipas (North Region) ......………………………………….. 57-58 Veracruz (Southeast Region) …...……………………………….. 59-60 Campeche (Southeast Region) ………………………………….. 61 Baja California Norte (B.C.) (North Region) .………………….. 62 Chihuahua (North Region) …...………………………………….. 63-64 Coahuila (North Region) ……...………………………………….. 65-66 Sonora (North Region) ………...………………………………….. 67-68 Puebla (Central Region) ……....………………………………….. 69 FINN: Booking At Attractive Low Fares Report …………. 70-107 HCITY: Hotel Engineering Report …………………………. 108-140 Corporate Directory ……………………………….…………. 141 Disclaimer ………………………………...……………...……. 142 6 The Lodging Industry Similar to other property-type sectors, lodging / hotel properties and the REITs or FIBRAs that invest in this property type are heavily dependent on the overall strength of the country’s economy and economic growth. However, the hotel sector is more cyclical because it is not secured by long-term leasing contracts and is thus exposed to short-term changes in national, regional and international business and leisure travel. As we will cover in this report, exposure to travel disruptions, such as the one originated by the swine flu outbreak in 2009 in Mexico (occupancy reached levels of 10% in the north and 30% in the central region), also increases hotels’ revenue volatility. Factors Affecting Economic Value For Different Property Types Ne w S pa c e Job Retail Sales Population Supply vs. Asse t Type GDP Growth Cre a tion Growth Growth De ma nd Retail 1 3 2 4 4 Office 1 2 5 4 3 Industrial 1 5 2 3 4 Multi- Family 1 2 5 2 4 Hote ls 1 2 5 4 3 Note: 1 = most important, 5 = least important Source: CFA Institute. Given the more cyclical nature of the hotel business, a deeper analysis on the sector’s fundamentals (including: trends in occupancies, average daily rates (ADRs), RevPARs, air passenger (PAX) traffic growth, regional performance, etc.) and the overall economic performance, becomes crucial for investors in determining their investment decision (entering in the right part of the cycle). Said that, for a better understanding and flow of this report, we are first presenting: i) a quick look on the cyclicity of the hospitality real estate (RE) sector, ii) the particular characteristics of the
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