30.09.2019-06.10.2019 • No: 227

KEY DIRECTIONS OF TAJIKISTAN’S CURRENT FOREIGN POLICY Central Asia is undergoing significant changes the Nation”, which allows him to run for office exceeded exports by almost 16 times. In addi- in terms of international relations. The leader- indefinitely and be immune from prosecution tion, around 2,000 hectares of land were allo- ship changes in the region that may lead to the for life. Given that the next presidential and cated to Chinese farmers in the Gorno-Badakh- transformation in regional dynamics coupled parliamentary elections are scheduled for shan Autonomous Region. with the shift of interest of major powers to- 2020, it can be said that Rahmon will remain Beijing’s considerable interest in Tajikistan, as wards the East, especially to Central Asia, are the longest-ruling Central Asian president. shown by the figures above, is driven by its examples of this. Governments in Central Asia Nevertheless, Tajikistan’s stable and autocratic proximity to Afghanistan, since China relates are following this process carefully while look- regime suits the foreign policy interests of its the security of its western borders with the sta- ing for new opportunities for their countries. major partners, including Russia and China bility of Tajikistan. The threat of terrorism and Tajikistan, which has not yet experienced any that are among the top trading partners of the instability that can spread to Tajikistan from fundamental changes in its internal and exter- country. Russia remains among the key part- Afghanistan can be seen as the main risk fac- nal politics, is putting efforts to harvest ad- ners due to its economic, military and political tors for China’s western borders. For this rea- vantages of this transitional period. Therefore, support, while remittances from Tajik migrant son, China further developed its military coop- it would be useful to analyze recent develop- workers in Russia is an important source of na- eration with Tajikistan in 2016, establishing ments in Tajikistan under president-for-life tional income. In particular, according to Rus- the Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordina- Emomali Rahmon in the context of regional sia’s Central Bank, in 2018, around $2.5 billion tion Mechanism, which also included Pakistan developments. of remittances were sent from Russia, which is and Afghanistan. Based on this mechanism, the Being among the most vulnerable countries of equivalent to Tajikistan’s 34% of GDP, and Chinese side built 10 guardhouses in the Pamir Central Asia due to its economic potential and this fairly shows the level of dependency of Ta- region bordering with Afghanistan and took political structure, Tajikistan is critical for jikistan on the Russian economy. Meanwhile, steps to equip and train a mountain brigade of maintaining security and stability in the region. the overall trade between the countries reached the Afghan army. However, according to the The geographical connectivity to Afghanistan $1 billion in 2018, while Russia invested Washington Post article, there is much more in the south causes security concerns not only around $1.7 billion in Tajikistan. In addition to involvement of Chinese troops in the Afghan- to Tajikistan but also to neighboring Uzbeki- trade and economic relations, the military Tajik border, some of which are veiled in se- stan, Kyrgyzstan, China, and even to Kazakh- sphere is another area of cooperation, where crecy. Thus, in general, the Chinese engage- stan and Russia. In addition to its disadvanta- the Russian government has maintained sub- ment with Tajikistan is based on China’s stra- geous geographical position, Tajikistan is the stantial presence since Tajikistan’s independ- tegic security interest further enhanced due to only Central Asian country that faced the dev- ence, especially because of the civil war. In its investments in Tajikistan. The issue of mil- astation of a civil war during 1992-1997, which particular, the 201st military base, one of the itary bases was also emphasized during the re- still has implications in its social and economic largest Russian military bases abroad, is situ- cent visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to structures. Therefore, Russia and China are ac- ated in Tajikistan and will remain there until Dushanbe in June 2019, when the parties tively involved in ensuring political and eco- 2042, according to the 2012 agreement. In ad- agreed to deepen their comprehensive strategic nomic stability in Tajikistan, especially for re- dition, Russia’s military specialists work on partnership. gional security reasons. In its turn, the Tajik Tajikistan’s border with Afghanistan and train Apart from China and Russia, Dushanbe also government acknowledges the mentioned con- the Tajik army. In general, over the past five tries to improve cooperation with the Central cerns and creates new opportunities in foreign years, the Russian government has transferred Asian states. Kazakhstan is a country of great policy by taking into account the investment weapons and military equipment worth $122 importance for Tajikistan as the second-largest potential of major powers such as China and million to the Tajik armed forces. Russia’s dip- trading partner; Uzbekistan is important in Russia. lomatic support of Tajikistan is also evident at terms of road and rail transport systems; and Tajikistan pursues an “open door” policy by the multinational platforms, while Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan in terms of cooperation in the field following the multivector strategy and support- remains in the orbit of the pro-Russian integra- of hydropower as well as trade and economic ing the centuries-old experience of friendly co- tion processes, including the Shanghai Cooper- relations. Therefore, along with other Central existence of the peoples of Central Asia. ation Organization and the Collective Security Asian leaders, President Rahmon is aware of Within the framework of these principles, Ta- Treaty Organization, with Moscow actively the potential of regional cooperation, and ac- jikistan runs its foreign policy activities based pushing Dushanbe to join the Eurasian Eco- tively supports Central Asian cooperation on equality and mutual interests, while encour- nomic Union. within the regional arrangements. Besides, as a aging foreign investments for the development China’s involvement in Tajikistan deserves result of internal developments after independ- of the country. As a result, the Tajik foreign global attention, as the country owes around ence, radical religious movements became policy in recent years has given priority to eco- $1.3 billion to the Chinese Eximbank, which is quite active in Tajikistan due to the geographic nomic, trade and foreign investment. In partic- more than 40% of the country’s total external position of the country. Moreover, Tajikistan ular, over the past five years, around $5 billion debt. Unsurprisingly, Tajikistan’s cooperation was the only Central Asian country that before of foreign investments, of which $2 billion in with China is studied as a case study of the Chi- the 2016 referendum had an official religious the form of foreign direct investments, have nese “debt trap” within the Belt and Road Ini- political party – the Islamic Renaissance Party been attracted to the country. Investments have tiative. However, this fact did not stop Tajik of Tajikistan (IRPT). Hence, facing the risks been directed to the industrial, energy and con- authorities from concluding an agreement on and threats posed by Afghanistan-based reli- struction sectors, as well as to the development the construction of the China-funded parlia- gious extremist groups and terrorist organiza- of infrastructure and tourism sectors. As a re- mentary building in 2018. Overall, there are tions, Tajikistan is among the core states that sult of these investments, the share of the pri- more than 100 Chinese companies operating in provide stability to the whole region. vate sector in the country’s GDP in 2019 various sectors of Tajikistan, with an invest- Thereby, even though Tajikistan’s foreign pol- reached 70%, which is 12% more than in 2013. ment volume of more than $500 million. The icy does not experience radical changes, a rel- Considering that agriculture and industry ac- Chinese CCTV system and traffic cameras are atively stable process has been observed with count for 18.9% and 21.9% of the country’s another example of the engagement of Chinese the help and support of Russia, China and the GDP, respectively, these investments can be business in Tajikistan. Apart from that, there Central Asian countries. Although the coun- regarded as sizeable for Tajikistan’s economy. are Chinese companies that operate in areas try’s debt burden is increasing day by day, the Undoubtedly, the key role in Tajikistan’s such as infrastructure, construction of indus- ‘open door’ policy can be regarded as a success multi-vector foreign policy is to be attributed trial facilities, the use of mining fields, school for President Rahmon in terms of sustaining to President Emomali Rahmon, who has been construction, etc., whereas the successful oper- the country’s economy. At the same time, con- ruling the country since 1992 (in 1992-1994 as ation of the country’s gold plants and mining sidering the current economic structure and re- the chairman of the Supreme Council). Ac- industry is also largely due to Chinese invest- sources of the country, it can be stated that cording to the constitutional amendments of ments. Bilateral trade between China and Ta- there are no other options available for Tajik 2016, President Rahmon became a “Leader of jikistan amounted to $560 million, yet imports authorities. Written by Albina Muratbekova, Eurasian Research Institute, Kazakhstan

Politics, Foreign Affairs, and Security Economy, Finance, and Energy Society and Culture • The member states of the Cooperation • A regular session of the Supreme Eura- • The United Nations Educational, Scien- Council of Turkic Speaking States (Tur- sian Economic Council took place in tific and Cultural Organization kic Council) celebrated the 10th anniver- Yerevan, as part of Armenia’s chair- (UNESCO) published the UNESCO sary of the Nakhchivan Agreement. The manship in the EAEU. The key item on Global Education Monitoring Report. document that established the organiza- the session’s agenda was the signing of The report was presented at the interna- tion was signed by Turkey, Azerbaijan, the framework agreement on compre- tional scientific conference “Life Strat- Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan on October hensive economic cooperation and the egies and Mobility of Youth in Central 3, 2009, which is marked annually as free trade agreement between the EAEU Asia: Challenges, Prospects and Poten- the Turkic Speaking States Cooperation and Singapore (Primeminister.am, tial”. During the conference, the report Day (MFA.gov.tr, 03.10.2019). 01.10.2019). findings and issues of youth migrants in • President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mir- • The deputy prime ministers of Belarus Central Asia were discussed (UNESCO, ziyoyev received Secretary General of and Tatarstan chaired a meeting of the 18.10.2019). the Turkic Council Baghdad Amreyev joint working group on bilateral cooper- • Kazakhstan expanded the list of coun- in Tashkent. The parties agreed that the ation held in Minsk. The parties agreed tries with visa-free entry, adding Bah- forthcoming accession of Uzbekistan to to keep the mutual trade volume in 2019 rain, Colombia, Indonesia, Kuwait, the Turkic Council following its ratifi- above $1 billion, the threshold reached Liechtenstein, Oman, the Philippines, cation of the Nakhchivan Agreement in 2017, and discussed the implementa- Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, the Vat- would further strengthen productive tion of collaborative projects, including ican and Vietnam. Citizens of these multilateral cooperation within the the production of gas tractor engines countries can now enter Kazakhstan framework of the organization (Kun.uz, (Government.by, 01.10.2019). without visa for 30 calendar days. This 05.10.2019). • The Chamber of Commerce and Indus- measure is aimed at increasing the num- • According to Chairman of Russia’s try of Uzbekistan held a regular meeting ber of foreign investors and tourists Federation Council Valentina Matvi- of the Uzbek-Russian Business Council. (Kazinform, 30.09.2019). yenko, the presidents of Uzbekistan and The participants discussed the success- • TURKSOY organized the 16th meeting Russia agreed to create a working group ful implementation of the “green corri- of photographers of the Turkic world in to analyze possible conditions and risks dor” system between the two countries, the Kyrgyz city of Osh, the 2019 Cul- for Uzbekistan to join the EAEU. In his which allowed to simplify customs pro- tural Capital of the Turkic World. 12 turn, First Deputy Chairman of Uzbeki- cedures and accelerate the delivery of photographers from Azerbaijan, Ka- stan’s Senate Sodik Safoyev noted that fruits and vegetables grown in Uzbeki- zakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, North Cyprus, Uzbekistan would only proceed from its stan to customers in various regions of Russia, Turkey, and Uzbekistan took national interests in making a final deci- Russia (UzDaily, 01.10.2019). pictures of the city’s natural and histor- sion on accession (Kun.uz, 04.10.2019). • Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan continue th ical sites, which were presented at an • The 16 annual meeting of the Valdai talks on establishing an international exhibition held at the conclusion of the Discussion Club was held in the Rus- center of economic cooperation called event (TURKSOY.org, 04.10.2019). sian city of Sochi under the theme “The “Central Asia” on the Kazakh-Uzbek Dawn of the East and the World Politi- border. The center is intended to intro- • Under the program “World Mongoli- cal Order”. The final plenary session of duce a new format of wholesale and re- ans” adopted by the government of the event was attended by the leaders of tail trade, develop international tourism, Mongolia, a conference dedicated to is- Azerbaijan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, the improve logistics services and establish sues of Mongolians studying overseas Philippines and Russia. The participants cross-border business cooperation. The was held in the Hungarian village of discussed the growing role of Asia as project will create 10,000 jobs at its im- Lakitelek. About 200 Mongolian stu- the world’s largest and most populated plementation stage and more than dents studying in 11 countries attended region in global affairs (Kremlin.ru, 40,000 jobs after the center is launched the conference to discuss topics such as 03.10.2019). (Kazinform, 03.10.2019). youth development policy and actions, • In his interview to Al Jazeera, President • Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy, to- opportunities to work at international of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon com- gether with the Ministry of Ecology, organizations, and skills that can lead to mented on the situation in Afghanistan. Geology and Natural Resources, plans success (Montsame.mn, 04.10.2019). According to Rahmon, security and sta- to adopt a Geological Exploration Pro- • The Days of Uzbek Cinema were held bility in Central Asia depends on the sit- gram for 2021-2025 in 2020. Along at the Central House of Cinematogra- uation in Afghanistan, which has no with offshore projects, it is planned to phers in Moscow, with the program fea- military solution. The Tajik president intensify exploration in promising little- turing the best ten movies and four doc- emphasized that the future of Afghani- studied territories of Kazakhstan, in- umentaries produced in Uzbekistan in stan must be in the hands of the Afghan cluding the Aral, Syrdarya, Shu-Sarysu, recent years. Russian viewers had the people (MFA.tj, 04.10.2019). North Torgay, and Irtysh basins (Gov- opportunity to see modern Uzbek films • The OSCE and Tajikistan’s Ministry of ernment.kz, 02.10.2019). on the big screen, as well as chat with Internal Affairs organized a series of • According to the National Bank of Kyr- their creators (Gazeta.uz, 02.10.2019). two-day training courses on trafficking gyzstan, in January-July 2019, remit- • The travel portal TourStat included in human beings in Dushanbe. Some 30 tances to Kyrgyzstan decreased by Nur-Sultan and Almaty in the top-10 list investigation officers from the ministry 13.4%, compared to the same period of of the CIS cities to visit for tourist pur- attended the courses that covered topics 2018, and reached $1.1 billion. One of poses in the fall of 2019. Nur-Sultan and including the national and international possible reasons for the decline in the Almaty are on the second and fourth po- legal frameworks, forms of human traf- remittance flow is the introduction of sitions, respectively, while the Belarus- ficking, protection measures available limits on cash transfers via payment ian capital Minsk leads the ranking. Ac- to law enforcement agencies, identifica- systems by Russia, which is the major cording to TourStat, Nur-Sultan and tion of victims and support services source of remittances to Kyrgyzstan Baku are popular destinations among (OSCE.org, 04.10.2019). (Kabar, 01.10.2019). shopping lovers (Kazinform, • The 17th meeting of the prosecutors gen- • According to Chinese Ambassador in 02.10.2019). eral of the Shanghai Cooperation Or- Turkmenistan Sun Weidong, in 1992- • According to the ranking published by ganization member states was held in 2018, trade between the two countries The Independent, Kiev is one of the Bishkek. During the meeting, the dele- increased more than 1,800 times – from eight top spots in Europe for gastro- gations discussed ways of improving $4.5 million to $8.4 billion. Since the nomes. The British newspaper notes collaboration between the prosecutors’ commissioning of the China-Turkmeni- that the foodie scene of the Ukrainian offices in combating contraband and il- stan gas pipeline at the end of 2009, capital is decidedly underrated. In addi- legal trafficking of narcotic drugs, psy- China imported more than 250 billion tion to chicken, travelers are advised to chotropic substances and their precur- cubic meters of Turkmen gas in total taste varenyky, beetroot borsch and pig sors (Sectsco.org, 04.10.2019). (News Central Asia, 01.10.2019). ears (The Independent, 04.10.2019).

Prepared by Dauren Aben and Kanat Makhanov