30.09.2019-06.10.2019 • No: 227 KEY DIRECTIONS OF TAJIKISTAN’S CURRENT FOREIGN POLICY Central Asia is undergoing significant changes the Nation”, which allows him to run for office exceeded exports by almost 16 times. In addi- in terms of international relations. The leader- indefinitely and be immune from prosecution tion, around 2,000 hectares of land were allo- ship changes in the region that may lead to the for life. Given that the next presidential and cated to Chinese farmers in the Gorno-Badakh- transformation in regional dynamics coupled parliamentary elections are scheduled for shan Autonomous Region. with the shift of interest of major powers to- 2020, it can be said that Rahmon will remain Beijing’s considerable interest in Tajikistan, as wards the East, especially to Central Asia, are the longest-ruling Central Asian president. shown by the figures above, is driven by its examples of this. Governments in Central Asia Nevertheless, Tajikistan’s stable and autocratic proximity to Afghanistan, since China relates are following this process carefully while look- regime suits the foreign policy interests of its the security of its western borders with the sta- ing for new opportunities for their countries. major partners, including Russia and China bility of Tajikistan. The threat of terrorism and Tajikistan, which has not yet experienced any that are among the top trading partners of the instability that can spread to Tajikistan from fundamental changes in its internal and exter- country. Russia remains among the key part- Afghanistan can be seen as the main risk fac- nal politics, is putting efforts to harvest ad- ners due to its economic, military and political tors for China’s western borders. For this rea- vantages of this transitional period. Therefore, support, while remittances from Tajik migrant son, China further developed its military coop- it would be useful to analyze recent develop- workers in Russia is an important source of na- eration with Tajikistan in 2016, establishing ments in Tajikistan under president-for-life tional income. In particular, according to Rus- the Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordina- Emomali Rahmon in the context of regional sia’s Central Bank, in 2018, around $2.5 billion tion Mechanism, which also included Pakistan developments. of remittances were sent from Russia, which is and Afghanistan. Based on this mechanism, the Being among the most vulnerable countries of equivalent to Tajikistan’s 34% of GDP, and Chinese side built 10 guardhouses in the Pamir Central Asia due to its economic potential and this fairly shows the level of dependency of Ta- region bordering with Afghanistan and took political structure, Tajikistan is critical for jikistan on the Russian economy. Meanwhile, steps to equip and train a mountain brigade of maintaining security and stability in the region. the overall trade between the countries reached the Afghan army. However, according to the The geographical connectivity to Afghanistan $1 billion in 2018, while Russia invested Washington Post article, there is much more in the south causes security concerns not only around $1.7 billion in Tajikistan. In addition to involvement of Chinese troops in the Afghan- to Tajikistan but also to neighboring Uzbeki- trade and economic relations, the military Tajik border, some of which are veiled in se- stan, Kyrgyzstan, China, and even to Kazakh- sphere is another area of cooperation, where crecy. Thus, in general, the Chinese engage- stan and Russia. In addition to its disadvanta- the Russian government has maintained sub- ment with Tajikistan is based on China’s stra- geous geographical position, Tajikistan is the stantial presence since Tajikistan’s independ- tegic security interest further enhanced due to only Central Asian country that faced the dev- ence, especially because of the civil war. In its investments in Tajikistan. The issue of mil- astation of a civil war during 1992-1997, which particular, the 201st military base, one of the itary bases was also emphasized during the re- still has implications in its social and economic largest Russian military bases abroad, is situ- cent visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to structures. Therefore, Russia and China are ac- ated in Tajikistan and will remain there until Dushanbe in June 2019, when the parties tively involved in ensuring political and eco- 2042, according to the 2012 agreement. In ad- agreed to deepen their comprehensive strategic nomic stability in Tajikistan, especially for re- dition, Russia’s military specialists work on partnership. gional security reasons. In its turn, the Tajik Tajikistan’s border with Afghanistan and train Apart from China and Russia, Dushanbe also government acknowledges the mentioned con- the Tajik army. In general, over the past five tries to improve cooperation with the Central cerns and creates new opportunities in foreign years, the Russian government has transferred Asian states. Kazakhstan is a country of great policy by taking into account the investment weapons and military equipment worth $122 importance for Tajikistan as the second-largest potential of major powers such as China and million to the Tajik armed forces. Russia’s dip- trading partner; Uzbekistan is important in Russia. lomatic support of Tajikistan is also evident at terms of road and rail transport systems; and Tajikistan pursues an “open door” policy by the multinational platforms, while Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan in terms of cooperation in the field following the multivector strategy and support- remains in the orbit of the pro-Russian integra- of hydropower as well as trade and economic ing the centuries-old experience of friendly co- tion processes, including the Shanghai Cooper- relations. Therefore, along with other Central existence of the peoples of Central Asia. ation Organization and the Collective Security Asian leaders, President Rahmon is aware of Within the framework of these principles, Ta- Treaty Organization, with Moscow actively the potential of regional cooperation, and ac- jikistan runs its foreign policy activities based pushing Dushanbe to join the Eurasian Eco- tively supports Central Asian cooperation on equality and mutual interests, while encour- nomic Union. within the regional arrangements. Besides, as a aging foreign investments for the development China’s involvement in Tajikistan deserves result of internal developments after independ- of the country. As a result, the Tajik foreign global attention, as the country owes around ence, radical religious movements became policy in recent years has given priority to eco- $1.3 billion to the Chinese Eximbank, which is quite active in Tajikistan due to the geographic nomic, trade and foreign investment. In partic- more than 40% of the country’s total external position of the country. Moreover, Tajikistan ular, over the past five years, around $5 billion debt. Unsurprisingly, Tajikistan’s cooperation was the only Central Asian country that before of foreign investments, of which $2 billion in with China is studied as a case study of the Chi- the 2016 referendum had an official religious the form of foreign direct investments, have nese “debt trap” within the Belt and Road Ini- political party – the Islamic Renaissance Party been attracted to the country. Investments have tiative. However, this fact did not stop Tajik of Tajikistan (IRPT). Hence, facing the risks been directed to the industrial, energy and con- authorities from concluding an agreement on and threats posed by Afghanistan-based reli- struction sectors, as well as to the development the construction of the China-funded parlia- gious extremist groups and terrorist organiza- of infrastructure and tourism sectors. As a re- mentary building in 2018. Overall, there are tions, Tajikistan is among the core states that sult of these investments, the share of the pri- more than 100 Chinese companies operating in provide stability to the whole region. vate sector in the country’s GDP in 2019 various sectors of Tajikistan, with an invest- Thereby, even though Tajikistan’s foreign pol- reached 70%, which is 12% more than in 2013. ment volume of more than $500 million. The icy does not experience radical changes, a rel- Considering that agriculture and industry ac- Chinese CCTV system and traffic cameras are atively stable process has been observed with count for 18.9% and 21.9% of the country’s another example of the engagement of Chinese the help and support of Russia, China and the GDP, respectively, these investments can be business in Tajikistan. Apart from that, there Central Asian countries. Although the coun- regarded as sizeable for Tajikistan’s economy. are Chinese companies that operate in areas try’s debt burden is increasing day by day, the Undoubtedly, the key role in Tajikistan’s such as infrastructure, construction of indus- ‘open door’ policy can be regarded as a success multi-vector foreign policy is to be attributed trial facilities, the use of mining fields, school for President Rahmon in terms of sustaining to President Emomali Rahmon, who has been construction, etc., whereas the successful oper- the country’s economy. At the same time, con- ruling the country since 1992 (in 1992-1994 as ation of the country’s gold plants and mining sidering the current economic structure and re- the chairman of the Supreme Council). Ac- industry is also largely due to Chinese invest- sources of the country, it can be stated that cording to the constitutional amendments of ments. Bilateral trade between China and Ta- there are no other options available for Tajik 2016, President Rahmon became a “Leader of jikistan amounted to $560 million, yet imports authorities. Written by Albina Muratbekova, Eurasian Research Institute, Kazakhstan Politics, Foreign Affairs, and Security Economy, Finance, and Energy Society and Culture • The member states of the Cooperation • A regular session of the Supreme Eura- • The United Nations Educational, Scien- Council of Turkic Speaking States (Tur- sian Economic Council took place in tific and Cultural Organization kic Council) celebrated the 10th anniver- Yerevan, as part of Armenia’s chair- (UNESCO) published the UNESCO sary of the Nakhchivan Agreement.