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Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan 1 | P a g e Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan © CENTRE for AEROSPACE & SECURITY STUDIES May 2021 All rights reserved. No part of this Report may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission. Opinions expressed are those of the speaker/s and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Centre. President Air Chief Marshal Kaleem Saadat (Retd) Deputy President Air Marshal Farhat Hussain Khan (Retd) Event Coordinator Syed Muhammad Ali Senior Editor Sarah Siddiq Aneel Rapporteurs Asad Ullah Khan, Ghanwah I. Cheema, Etfa K. Mirza & Maham S. Gillani All correspondence pertaining to this Dialogue Analysis Report should be addressed to CASS, through post or email at the following address: CENTRE for AEROSPACE & SECURITY STUDIES (CASS) Air Commodore Tanveer Piracha, Director Coord & Admin Old Airport Road, Islamabad, Pakistan Tel: +92 051 5405011 Institutional URL: https://casstt.com/ Twitter: @CassThinkers Facebook: cass.thinkers 2 | P a g e Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................. 4 Geopolitical Measures ........................................................................................................................... 4 Geo-economic Steps ............................................................................................................................. 5 National Level ....................................................................................................................................... 5 Key Takeaways ........................................................................................................................................ 6 Policy Directions ...................................................................................................................................... 8 Dialogue Analysis ................................................................................................................................... 10 Future of Afghanistan: US Perspective ................................................................................................. 10 Professor Dr Marvin G. Weinbaum ............................................................................................................. 10 Future of Afghanistan: Afghan Perspective .......................................................................................... 13 Dr Torek Farhadi ......................................................................................................................................... 13 Future of Afghanistan: Security Dynamics & Options for Pakistan ........................................................ 16 Lieutenant General Ishfaq Nadeem Ahmad (Retd) ..................................................................................... 16 Future of Afghanistan and Geopolitical Implications for Pakistan ......................................................... 19 Ambassador Jalil Abbas Jilani (Retd) ........................................................................................................... 19 Concluding Remarks ........................................................................................................................... 22 Air Marshal Farhat Hussain Khan (Retd) ..................................................................................................... 22 Annexure I ............................................................................................................................................. 24 Profiles of Speakers ........................................................................................................................................ 24 Annexure II ............................................................................................................................................ 26 Press Release ...................................................................................................................................... 26 3 | P a g e Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan Executive Summary The Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS) organized an international webinar on the ‘Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan’ on 25 May 2021. Eminent experts from the United States, Afghanistan and Pakistan shared their perspectives on the subject and critically analyzed the future security dynamics of Afghanistan and their geostrategic and geopolitical implications. The speakers were skeptical about the prospects of the current peace process and stressed the need for a substantive and lasting commitment and timely steps by the Afghan stakeholders, neighboring countries and international community, to promote peace and help rebuild the war-ravaged Afghan society, economy and nation-state. They stressed that the role of neighboring countries was critical for the success of the Afghan state, particularly amidst the growing risk of proxy-driven civil war in the country. They agreed that: Pakistan was part of the solution and not a problem. Framing the debate as such (especially by certain media and policy circles) was not only problematic, but also detrimental to regional peace. Pakistani speakers were also of the view that negative framing of Pakistan was unacceptable, especially since the latter has been facilitating and supporting the Afghan peace process and would continue to do so. It was pointed out that Pakistan provides 55,000 visas to Afghan nationals every month to facilitate their travel for basic necessities like health and education. Afghanstan’s future instability would have serious implications for Pakistan’s internal and economic security due to the potential risk of increasing refugee influx, terrorism and greater challenges for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Several future scenarios were deliberated and the speakers warned that conflict between Taliban and Kabul administration was likely to intensify which would have significant social, economic, political and security implications. Recommendations on the various geopolitical, geo-economic and national measures that could help improve future prospects of stabilizing Afghanistan and reduce the negative implications of instability included the following: Geopolitical Measures Neighboring countries must help Afghanistan reach a power-sharing arrangement. The government in Kabul should desist from the blame game and enter into agreements with Pakistan and neighboring countries that could help guarantee future peace. India’s nefarious designs were detrimental for peace efforts in Afghanistan. The Indian dossier also outlined clearly New Delhi’s subversive activities in Afghanistan 4 | P a g e Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan and the world community must take adequate action against India for its support of terrorist organizations like Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Islamic State (IS). Geo-economic Steps The US and its allies, despite pulling their troops out, must offer financial commitment to help Afghanistan stand on its own feet. This would help transform the region into a stable zone of opportunity and herald a new era of transit, trade and commerce for Afghanistan as well as South, East and West Asia. Furthermore, this would not only help augment Pakistan’s current geo-economics-driven foreign policy initiative, but also promote regional connectivity and integration. National Level Pakistan must develop a comprehensive plan to ensure that in case of civil war in Afghanistan, the government manages its negative social, economic, political, and security fallout effectively in all relevant domains. Afghan peace is the key to regional peace, progress and prosperity. Pakistan should pre-empt and garner support of all regional stakeholders, particularly China, Iran and Turkey, through a common initiative by becoming ‘partners in peace.’ 5 | P a g e Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan Key Takeaways Pakistan - Part of the Solution, Not a Problem Pakistan was part of the solution for a peaceful Afghanistan and not a problem. All efforts to frame the narrative with such negative perceptions was detrimental for regional peace. ‘Peace & Regional Stability’ - Grand Policy Objective Pakistan must continue to peruse ‘Peace & Regional Stability’ as a grand policy objective in Afghanistan, supported by all its elements of national power. Engagement of Afghan and International Stakeholders Pakistan must play a proactive role in facilitating smooth withdrawal of the United States (US) and NATO troops through a well-coordinated strategy that enables Islamabad to retain the respect of the Afghan stakeholders and the international community. India - Spoiler in Afghanistan Past two decades of lawlessness in Afghanistan enabled India to develop close links with several terrorist organizations and insurgent outfits that operate from its territory to launch attacks and support insurgent activities inside Pakistan. Therefore, Indian activities, particularly near the Pak-Afghan border areas, require constant watch as a national security imperative. Crackdown on Terrorist Sympathizers Terrorist sympathizers within Pakistan may become a source of trouble
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