DOCSLIB.ORG

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan 1 | Page

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan 1 | Page Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan 1 | P a g e Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan © CENTRE for AEROSPACE & SECURITY STUDIES May 2021 All rights reserved. No part of this Report may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission. Opinions expressed are those of the speaker/s and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Centre. President Air Chief Marshal Kaleem Saadat (Retd) Deputy President Air Marshal Farhat Hussain Khan (Retd) Event Coordinator Syed Muhammad Ali Senior Editor Sarah Siddiq Aneel Rapporteurs Asad Ullah Khan, Ghanwah I. Cheema, Etfa K. Mirza & Maham S. Gillani All correspondence pertaining to this Dialogue Analysis Report should be addressed to CASS, through post or email at the following address: CENTRE for AEROSPACE & SECURITY STUDIES (CASS) Air Commodore Tanveer Piracha, Director Coord & Admin Old Airport Road, Islamabad, Pakistan Tel: +92 051 5405011 Institutional URL: https://casstt.com/ Twitter: @CassThinkers Facebook: cass.thinkers 2 | P a g e Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................. 4 Geopolitical Measures ........................................................................................................................... 4 Geo-economic Steps ............................................................................................................................. 5 National Level ....................................................................................................................................... 5 Key Takeaways ........................................................................................................................................ 6 Policy Directions ...................................................................................................................................... 8 Dialogue Analysis ................................................................................................................................... 10 Future of Afghanistan: US Perspective ................................................................................................. 10 Professor Dr Marvin G. Weinbaum ............................................................................................................. 10 Future of Afghanistan: Afghan Perspective .......................................................................................... 13 Dr Torek Farhadi ......................................................................................................................................... 13 Future of Afghanistan: Security Dynamics & Options for Pakistan ........................................................ 16 Lieutenant General Ishfaq Nadeem Ahmad (Retd) ..................................................................................... 16 Future of Afghanistan and Geopolitical Implications for Pakistan ......................................................... 19 Ambassador Jalil Abbas Jilani (Retd) ........................................................................................................... 19 Concluding Remarks ........................................................................................................................... 22 Air Marshal Farhat Hussain Khan (Retd) ..................................................................................................... 22 Annexure I ............................................................................................................................................. 24 Profiles of Speakers ........................................................................................................................................ 24 Annexure II ............................................................................................................................................ 26 Press Release ...................................................................................................................................... 26 3 | P a g e Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan Executive Summary The Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS) organized an international webinar on the ‘Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan’ on 25 May 2021. Eminent experts from the United States, Afghanistan and Pakistan shared their perspectives on the subject and critically analyzed the future security dynamics of Afghanistan and their geostrategic and geopolitical implications. The speakers were skeptical about the prospects of the current peace process and stressed the need for a substantive and lasting commitment and timely steps by the Afghan stakeholders, neighboring countries and international community, to promote peace and help rebuild the war-ravaged Afghan society, economy and nation-state. They stressed that the role of neighboring countries was critical for the success of the Afghan state, particularly amidst the growing risk of proxy-driven civil war in the country. They agreed that: Pakistan was part of the solution and not a problem. Framing the debate as such (especially by certain media and policy circles) was not only problematic, but also detrimental to regional peace. Pakistani speakers were also of the view that negative framing of Pakistan was unacceptable, especially since the latter has been facilitating and supporting the Afghan peace process and would continue to do so. It was pointed out that Pakistan provides 55,000 visas to Afghan nationals every month to facilitate their travel for basic necessities like health and education. Afghanstan’s future instability would have serious implications for Pakistan’s internal and economic security due to the potential risk of increasing refugee influx, terrorism and greater challenges for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Several future scenarios were deliberated and the speakers warned that conflict between Taliban and Kabul administration was likely to intensify which would have significant social, economic, political and security implications. Recommendations on the various geopolitical, geo-economic and national measures that could help improve future prospects of stabilizing Afghanistan and reduce the negative implications of instability included the following: Geopolitical Measures Neighboring countries must help Afghanistan reach a power-sharing arrangement. The government in Kabul should desist from the blame game and enter into agreements with Pakistan and neighboring countries that could help guarantee future peace. India’s nefarious designs were detrimental for peace efforts in Afghanistan. The Indian dossier also outlined clearly New Delhi’s subversive activities in Afghanistan 4 | P a g e Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan and the world community must take adequate action against India for its support of terrorist organizations like Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Islamic State (IS). Geo-economic Steps The US and its allies, despite pulling their troops out, must offer financial commitment to help Afghanistan stand on its own feet. This would help transform the region into a stable zone of opportunity and herald a new era of transit, trade and commerce for Afghanistan as well as South, East and West Asia. Furthermore, this would not only help augment Pakistan’s current geo-economics-driven foreign policy initiative, but also promote regional connectivity and integration. National Level Pakistan must develop a comprehensive plan to ensure that in case of civil war in Afghanistan, the government manages its negative social, economic, political, and security fallout effectively in all relevant domains. Afghan peace is the key to regional peace, progress and prosperity. Pakistan should pre-empt and garner support of all regional stakeholders, particularly China, Iran and Turkey, through a common initiative by becoming ‘partners in peace.’ 5 | P a g e Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan Key Takeaways Pakistan - Part of the Solution, Not a Problem Pakistan was part of the solution for a peaceful Afghanistan and not a problem. All efforts to frame the narrative with such negative perceptions was detrimental for regional peace. ‘Peace & Regional Stability’ - Grand Policy Objective Pakistan must continue to peruse ‘Peace & Regional Stability’ as a grand policy objective in Afghanistan, supported by all its elements of national power. Engagement of Afghan and International Stakeholders Pakistan must play a proactive role in facilitating smooth withdrawal of the United States (US) and NATO troops through a well-coordinated strategy that enables Islamabad to retain the respect of the Afghan stakeholders and the international community. India - Spoiler in Afghanistan Past two decades of lawlessness in Afghanistan enabled India to develop close links with several terrorist organizations and insurgent outfits that operate from its territory to launch attacks and support insurgent activities inside Pakistan. Therefore, Indian activities, particularly near the Pak-Afghan border areas, require constant watch as a national security imperative. Crackdown on Terrorist Sympathizers Terrorist sympathizers within Pakistan may become a source of trouble
Load more

Recommended publications
  • 07. Hallmark 2011-12.Pdf
    Know that the life of this world is only play and amusement pomp and mutual boasting among you, and rivalry in respect of wealth and children, as the likeness of vegetation after rain, thereof the growth is pleasing to the tiller; afterwards it dries up and you see it tutrning yellow: then it becomes straw. But in the Hereafter (there is) Forgiveness from Allah and (His) Good Pleasure (for the believers, good-doers), whereas the life of this worls is only a deceiving enjoyment Al-Hadeed 57:20 Army Burn Hall College for Boys The Hallmark 2011-12 Q U M O A N ND ON ASCE CONTENTS Message of the Chairman Board of Governors ....................................................................................... 7 Message of the Deputy Chairman Board of Governors ......................................................................... 9 Principal’s Message .................................................................................................................................... 10 From the Editor’s Pen ................................................................................................................................ 12 The College Faculty ................................................................................................................................... 14 VIEWS & REVIEWS ................................................................................................................................ 18 ANNUAL DAY AND PRIZE DISTRIBUTION Principal’s Report - Annual Parents Day and Prize Distribution Ceremony
    [Show full text]
  • USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal #900
    USAF COUNTERPROLIFERATION CENTER CPC OUTREACH JOURNAL Maxwell AFB, Alabama Issue No. 900, 22 April 2011 Articles & Other Documents: Tokyo Electric Admits Fuel could be Melting at A Career U.S. Intelligence Officer on Al Qaeda, Nuclear Fukushima Nuke Plant Terrorism and the Nuclear Threat Pakistan's New Missile Aimed at India's 'Cold Start' News Analysis: One Year On, Headway and Hurdles for Doctrine: Experts Global Nuclear Security Mullen Launches Diatribe against ISI Arab Revolutions Don‘t Mean End for Al Qaeda Russia Says Borei Sub to Test New Missile this Year A Race to Oblivion? Russia Abandons $1B Western Aid to Weapons Time for Plan B Program FMCT and Indo-Pak Deterrence Stability – Analysis Russia to Double its Ballistic Missiles Production from 2013 Pakistani Security Experts Respond to U.S. State Department's Concern over the Security of Pakistani U.S. to Seek Agreement with Russia on Tactical Nuclear Nuclear Weapons Weapons Reduction Rogue CIA Operatives at Large UN Calls on Countries to Implement Resolution Aimed at Nuclear, Chemical, Biological Terrorism Welcome to the CPC Outreach Journal. As part of USAF Counterproliferation Center’s mission to counter weapons of mass destruction through education and research, we’re providing our government and civilian community a source for timely counterproliferation information. This information includes articles, papers and other documents addressing issues pertinent to US military response options for dealing with chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) threats and countermeasures. It’s our hope this information resource will help enhance your counterproliferation issue awareness. Established in 1998, the USAF/CPC provides education and research to present and future leaders of the Air Force, as well as to members of other branches of the armed services and Department of Defense.
    [Show full text]
  • Whole Book 4 PDF Final.Cdr
    Pakistan Journal of Criminology Volume 3 & 4, No. 4 & 1, April / July, 2012 Contents Editorial i The Treatment and Rehabilitation of Offenders on Probation: An Assessment of the Changing Faces of Probation Service in England and Wales Basharat Hussain &Gwyneth Boswell 1 Internal Versus External Detection of White-Collar Criminals: An Empirical Study Petter Gottschalk 15 Witness Protection Model for the Royal Thai Police Samroeng Saengtrong & Sunee Kalyajit 33 Insanity Under Various Criminal Law Jurisdictions of the Globe: A Comprehensive Critical Study of the Relevancy of the Law Vaibhav Choudhary & A.Velan 51 Suicide-Bombing: A Unique Threat to Security Agencies in Pakistan Fida Mohammad 81 Role of Punjab Police in Control of Narcotics: A Comparison with ANF and Customs M. Tariq Rustam Chohan 99 The Drug Trade and the Death Penalty in Pakistan: Childhood and Practical Remarks from a Narrative - Existential Point of View J. M. (Johan) Ras 109 Terrorism: An Evaluation of Students' Awareness and Attitude at KUST, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Muhammad Munir, Syed Rashid Ali, Niaz Muhammad, Mussawar Shah, 125 Abdullah, Imran Contents Terrorist Rehabilitation: An Introduction to Concepts and Practices Rohan Gunaratna 143 The Need for a Comparative Criminology of Policing in India and Pakistan Fasihuddin (PSP) 159 The Dark Side of Social Media: Review of Online Terrorism Geof Dean, Peter Bell, & Jack Newman 191 List of Letters and Receipts to Pakistan Society of Criminology (PJC) 211 1. His Excellency, Ambassador of Turkey, Turkish Embassy, Islamabad. Dated 25-06-08 2. The Honourable, Chief of Army Staff, GHQ, Rawalpindi. Dated 26-06-08 3. His Excellency, Governor, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
    [Show full text]
  • Pakistan's Institutions
    Pakistan’s Institutions: Pakistan’s Pakistan’s Institutions: We Know They Matter, But How Can They We Know They Matter, But How Can They Work Better? Work They But How Can Matter, They Know We Work Better? Edited by Michael Kugelman and Ishrat Husain Pakistan’s Institutions: We Know They Matter, But How Can They Work Better? Edited by Michael Kugelman Ishrat Husain Pakistan’s Institutions: We Know They Matter, But How Can They Work Better? Essays by Madiha Afzal Ishrat Husain Waris Husain Adnan Q. Khan, Asim I. Khwaja, and Tiffany M. Simon Michael Kugelman Mehmood Mandviwalla Ahmed Bilal Mehboob Umar Saif Edited by Michael Kugelman Ishrat Husain ©2018 The Wilson Center www.wilsoncenter.org This publication marks a collaborative effort between the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars’ Asia Program and the Fellowship Fund for Pakistan. www.wilsoncenter.org/program/asia-program fffp.org.pk Asia Program Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars One Woodrow Wilson Plaza 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Washington, DC 20004-3027 Cover: Parliament House Islamic Republic of Pakistan, © danishkhan, iStock THE WILSON CENTER, chartered by Congress as the official memorial to President Woodrow Wilson, is the nation’s key nonpartisan policy forum for tackling global issues through independent research and open dialogue to inform actionable ideas for Congress, the Administration, and the broader policy community. Conclusions or opinions expressed in Center publications and programs are those of the authors and speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Center staff, fellows, trustees, advisory groups, or any individuals or organizations that provide financial support to the Center.
    [Show full text]
  • PPEPCA 18Th Issue
    Message from Chairman PPEPCA Lt. Gen. Ishfaq Nadeem Ahmad (Retd) PPEPCA is fast maturing into a vibrant, professional and effective advisory and representative body of the E&P Industry in Pakistan. PPEPCA member companies have been playing a crucial role for the socio-economic development in the Country. Besides core activities of exploration and production of hydrocarbons, our member companies have been undertaking projects for the uplift of the areas where they operate in particular and across the Country in general, as part of their Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). In addition to discharging their mandatory social welfare obligations as per applicable Petroleum Concessions Agreements (PCAs), they spend substantial amount on CSR projects/initiatives on voluntary basis, over and above the mandatory requirements. We felt a need to create awareness about the contributions of E&P Industry with regard to CSR, and are bringing out this magazine which is an endeavor to highlight the contributions of our member companies for the socio-economic development of the Country. I will like to commend the efforts of our Editorial Board for making it happen and hope to receive your feedback to improve this publication in future. This year, the theme of the magazine is Clean & Green Pakistan, in consonance with the Federal Government’s drive for a cleaner and greener Pakistan. I hope you will find it a good read. Message from President Corporate Affairs Committee PPEPCA Wasim A. Zuberi It is our pleasure to present 18th issue of the CSR magazine. Since the inception of Pakistan Petroleum Exploration and Production Association (PPEPCA) is regularly bringing out this magazine to inform all stake holders that besides making profit all member companies perform a number of their very important functions to serve the community.
    [Show full text]
  • Zaheeruddin V. State and the Official Persecution of the Ahmadiyya Community in Pakistan
    Minnesota Journal of Law & Inequality Volume 14 Issue 1 Article 5 June 1996 Enforced Apostasy: Zaheeruddin v. State and the Official Persecution of the Ahmadiyya Community in Pakistan M. Nadeem Ahmad Siddiq Follow this and additional works at: https://lawandinequality.org/ Recommended Citation M. N. Siddiq, Enforced Apostasy: Zaheeruddin v. State and the Officialersecution P of the Ahmadiyya Community in Pakistan, 14(1) LAW & INEQ. 275 (1996). Available at: https://scholarship.law.umn.edu/lawineq/vol14/iss1/5 Minnesota Journal of Law & Inequality is published by the University of Minnesota Libraries Publishing. Enforced Apostasy: Zaheeruddin v. State and the Official Persecution of the Ahmadiyya Community in Pakistan M. Nadeem Ahmad Siddiq* Table of Contents Introduction ............................................... 276 I. The Ahmadiyya Community in Islam .................. 278 II. History of Ahmadis in Pakistan ........................ 282 III. The Decision in Zaheerudin v. State ................... 291 A. The Pakistan Court Considers Ahmadis Non- M uslim s ........................................... 292 B. Company and Trademark Laws Do Not Prohibit Ahmadis From Muslim Practices ................... 295 C. The Pakistan Court Misused United States Freedom of Religion Precedent .............................. 299 D. Ordinance XX Should Have Been Found Void for Vagueness ......................................... 314 E. The Pakistan Court Attributed False Statements to Mirza Ghulam Almad ............................. 317 F. Ordinance XX Violates
    [Show full text]
  • Pakistan's Quest for Security and Stability Event Report October 15
    Pakistan’s Quest for Security and Stability Event Report October 15, 2019 Table of Contents 1. Concept Note.................................................................................................................................. 1 2. Event Promotional Campaign .................................................................................................... 2 Infographics ................................................................................................................................... 3 3. Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... 4 4. Brief of the Conference ............................................................................................................... 6 OPENING SESSION ......................................................................................................................... 7 FIRST SESSION ............................................................................................................................. 10 SECOND SESSION ........................................................................................................................ 15 5. Profiles of Speakers.................................................................................................................... 19 6. Conference Program .................................................................................................................. 22 7. Graphical Representation of the Participants ...................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • 2009 Helping-Pakistan-Defeat-The
    © 2009 Institute for Social Policy and Understanding All Rights Reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding. The Institute for Social Policy and Understanding normally does not take institutional positions on public policy issues. The views presented here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute, its staff, or trustees. ABOUT THE AUTHOR H A IDER A LI H USSEIN M ULLICK , ISPU F ELLOW Haider Ali Hussein Mullick is a fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU), a senior fellow at the Joint Special Operations University (JSOU), and conducts research on American foreign policy toward South Asia and the Middle East. During his career, he has focused on American-Pakistani relations and broader issues of security; socio- economics; and the geopolitics of Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia. He is the author of a forthcoming book-length monograph: Pakistan’s Security Paradox: Countering and Fomenting Insurgencies. In addition, Haider has conducted research at the Brookings Institution’s Foreign Policy Studies (U.S.-Pakistan Relations), the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (Pakistan’s Political Economy and Reviving Failed States), and the Hudson Institute’s Center on Islam, Democracy, and the Future of the Muslim World (Madrassa Education and Links to Islamist Militancy). Haider’s editorials have appeared in Newsweek, The Washington Post, Foreign Policy Magazine, The Nation (Pakistan), The Daily Times, The News International, The Times of India, Indian Express, Gulf News, and Pakistan Link.
    [Show full text]
  • Pakistan Research Repository
    Ph.D. Dissertation Pakistan’s Relations with China: A Study of Defence and Strategic Ties during Musharraf Era (1999-2008) A Thesis Submitted to Faculty of Arts and Humanities University of the Punjab In Candidancy for the Fulfillment of Doctor of Philosophy By Unsa Jamshed Pakistan Study Centre University of the Punjab, Lahore 2016 1 Dedication To My Honourable Supervisor, Prof. Dr. Massarrat Abid 2 Declaration I, Unsa Jamshed, hereby declare that this thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the award of Doctor of Philosophy in Pakistan-Studies, University of the Punjab, is wholly my personal research work unless otherwise referenced or acknowledged. This thesis has not been submitted concurrently to any other University for any other degree. __________________ Unsa Jamshed 3 Certificate by Research Supervisor This is to certify that the research work described in this thesis is the original work of the author and has been carried out under my supervision. I have personally gone through all the data reported in the manuscript and certify their authenticity. I further certify that the material included in this thesis has not been used in part of full in a manuscript already submitted or in the process of submission in partial/complete fulfillment of the award of any other degree from any other institution. I also certify that the thesis has been prepared under supervision according to the prescribed format and I endorse its evaluation for the award of Ph.D. degree through the official procedures of the University. ____________ Prof. Dr. Massarrat Adid, Director Pakistan Study Centre, University of the Punjab, Lahore.
    [Show full text]
  • Sustainable Development in a Digital Society
    & October - DECEMBER 2019 SDC Special Bulletin Vol 26. No. 6 Sustainable D evelopment in a Digital Society 2 - 5 December 2019 Islamabad Contents Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................3 Acknowledgments SDC 2019 Inaugural Plenary at the Presidency .....................................................................................................................................................4 World Bank Dinner Plenary - Better Business Regulatory Environment: Way Forward for Pakistan............................................7 Introductory Plenary - Sustainable Development in a Digital Society..........................................................................................................9 A1: Managing our Water: Collective Action in the Digital Age.................................................................................................................12 A2: Youth and Peace Building in the Digital Age............................................................................................................................................14 A3: Emerging Technologies and Regional Stability......................................................................................................................................17 A4: Technology and Labour Market: Preparing Pakistan for the Future ............................................................................................20
    [Show full text]
  • 3 Who Is Who and What Is What
    3 e who is who and what is what Ever Success - General Knowledge 4 Saad Book Bank, Lahore Ever Success Revised and Updated GENERAL KNOWLEDGE Who is who? What is what? CSS, PCS, PMS, FPSC, ISSB Police, Banks, Wapda, Entry Tests and for all Competitive Exames and Interviews World Pakistan Science English Computer Geography Islamic Studies Subjectives + Objectives etc. Abbreviations Current Affair Sports + Games Ever Success - General Knowledge 5 Saad Book Bank, Lahore © ALL RIGHTS RESERVED No part of this book may be reproduced In any form, by photostate, electronic or mechanical, or any other means without the written permission of author and publisher. Composed By Muhammad Tahsin Ever Success - General Knowledge 6 Saad Book Bank, Lahore Dedicated To ME Ever Success - General Knowledge 7 Saad Book Bank, Lahore Ever Success - General Knowledge 8 Saad Book Bank, Lahore P R E F A C E I offer my services for designing this strategy of success. The material is evidence of my claim, which I had collected from various resources. I have written this book with an aim in my mind. I am sure this book will prove to be an invaluable asset for learners. I have tried my best to include all those topics which are important for all competitive exams and interviews. No book can be claimed as prefect except Holy Quran. So if you found any shortcoming or mistake, you should inform me, according to your suggestions, improvements will be made in next edition. The author would like to thank all readers and who gave me their valuable suggestions for the completion of this book.
    [Show full text]
  • The Battle for Pakistan
    ebooksall.com ebooksall.com ebooksall.com SHUJA NAWAZ THE BATTLE F OR PAKISTAN The Bitter US Friendship and a Tough Neighbourhood PENGUIN BOOKS ebooksall.com Contents Important Milestones 2007–19 Abbreviations and Acronyms Preface: Salvaging a Misalliance 1. The Revenge of Democracy? 2. Friends or Frenemies? 3. 2011: A Most Horrible Year! 4. From Tora Bora to Pathan Gali 5. Internal Battles 6. Salala: Anatomy of a Failed Alliance 7. Mismanaging the Civil–Military Relationship 8. US Aid: Leverage or a Trap? 9. Mil-to-Mil Relations: Do More 10. Standing in the Right Corner 11. Transforming the Pakistan Army 12. Pakistan’s Military Dilemma 13. Choices Footnotes Important Milestones 2007–19 Preface: Salvaging a Misalliance 1. The Revenge of Democracy? 2. Friends or Frenemies? 3. 2011: A Most Horrible Year! 4. From Tora Bora to Pathan Gali 5. Internal Battles 6. Salala: Anatomy of a Failed Alliance 7. Mismanaging the Civil–Military Relationship 8. US Aid: Leverage or a Trap? 9. Mil-to-Mil Relations: Do More 10. Standing in the Right Corner 11. Transforming the Pakistan Army 12. Pakistan’s Military Dilemma 13. Choices Select Bibliography ebooksall.com Acknowledgements Follow Penguin Copyright ebooksall.com Advance Praise for the Book ‘An intriguing, comprehensive and compassionate analysis of the dysfunctional relationship between the United States and Pakistan by the premier expert on the Pakistan Army. Shuja Nawaz exposes the misconceptions and contradictions on both sides of one of the most crucial bilateral relations in the world’ —BRUCE RIEDEL, senior fellow and director of the Brookings Intelligence Project, and author of Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America and the Future of the Global Jihad ‘A superb, thoroughly researched account of the complex dynamics that have defined the internal and external realities of Pakistan over the past dozen years.
    [Show full text]