Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for

1 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

© CENTRE for AEROSPACE & SECURITY STUDIES May 2021 All rights reserved. No part of this Report may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission. Opinions expressed are those of the speaker/s and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Centre. President Air Chief Marshal Kaleem Saadat (Retd) Deputy President Air Marshal Farhat Hussain Khan (Retd) Event Coordinator Syed Muhammad Ali Senior Editor Sarah Siddiq Aneel Rapporteurs Asad Ullah Khan, Ghanwah I. Cheema, Etfa K. Mirza & Maham S. Gillani

All correspondence pertaining to this Dialogue Analysis Report should be addressed to CASS, through post or email at the following address:

CENTRE for AEROSPACE & SECURITY STUDIES (CASS) Air Commodore Tanveer Piracha, Director Coord & Admin Old Airport Road, , Pakistan Tel: +92 051 5405011 Institutional URL: https://casstt.com/ Twitter: @CassThinkers Facebook: cass.thinkers

2 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

Contents

Executive Summary ...... 4 Geopolitical Measures ...... 4 Geo-economic Steps ...... 5 National Level ...... 5 Key Takeaways ...... 6 Policy Directions ...... 8 Dialogue Analysis ...... 10 Future of Afghanistan: US Perspective ...... 10 Professor Dr Marvin G. Weinbaum ...... 10 Future of Afghanistan: Afghan Perspective ...... 13 Dr Torek Farhadi ...... 13 Future of Afghanistan: Security Dynamics & Options for Pakistan ...... 16 Lieutenant General Ishfaq (Retd) ...... 16 Future of Afghanistan and Geopolitical Implications for Pakistan ...... 19 Ambassador Jalil Abbas Jilani (Retd) ...... 19 Concluding Remarks ...... 22 Air Marshal Farhat Hussain Khan (Retd) ...... 22 Annexure I ...... 24 Profiles of Speakers ...... 24 Annexure II ...... 26 Press Release ...... 26

3 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

Executive Summary

The Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS) organized an international webinar on the ‘Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan’ on 25 May 2021. Eminent experts from the United States, Afghanistan and Pakistan shared their perspectives on the subject and critically analyzed the future security dynamics of Afghanistan and their geostrategic and geopolitical implications. The speakers were skeptical about the prospects of the current peace process and stressed the need for a substantive and lasting commitment and timely steps by the Afghan stakeholders, neighboring countries and international community, to promote peace and help rebuild the war-ravaged Afghan society, economy and nation-state. They stressed that the role of neighboring countries was critical for the success of the Afghan state, particularly amidst the growing risk of proxy-driven civil war in the country. They agreed that: Pakistan was part of the solution and not a problem. Framing the debate as such (especially by certain media and policy circles) was not only problematic, but also detrimental to regional peace. Pakistani speakers were also of the view that negative framing of Pakistan was unacceptable, especially since the latter has been facilitating and supporting the Afghan peace process and would continue to do so. It was pointed out that Pakistan provides 55,000 visas to Afghan nationals every month to facilitate their travel for basic necessities like health and education. Afghanstan’s future instability would have serious implications for Pakistan’s internal and economic security due to the potential risk of increasing refugee influx, terrorism and greater challenges for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Several future scenarios were deliberated and the speakers warned that conflict between Taliban and Kabul administration was likely to intensify which would have significant social, economic, political and security implications. Recommendations on the various geopolitical, geo-economic and national measures that could help improve future prospects of stabilizing Afghanistan and reduce the negative implications of instability included the following: Geopolitical Measures Neighboring countries must help Afghanistan reach a power-sharing arrangement. The government in Kabul should desist from the blame game and enter into agreements with Pakistan and neighboring countries that could help guarantee future peace. India’s nefarious designs were detrimental for peace efforts in Afghanistan. The Indian dossier also outlined clearly New Delhi’s subversive activities in Afghanistan

4 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan and the world community must take adequate action against India for its support of terrorist organizations like Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Islamic State (IS). Geo-economic Steps The US and its allies, despite pulling their troops out, must offer financial commitment to help Afghanistan stand on its own feet. This would help transform the region into a stable zone of opportunity and herald a new era of transit, trade and commerce for Afghanistan as well as South, East and West Asia. Furthermore, this would not only help augment Pakistan’s current geo-economics-driven foreign policy initiative, but also promote regional connectivity and integration. National Level Pakistan must develop a comprehensive plan to ensure that in case of civil war in Afghanistan, the government manages its negative social, economic, political, and security fallout effectively in all relevant domains. Afghan peace is the key to regional peace, progress and prosperity. Pakistan should pre-empt and garner support of all regional stakeholders, particularly China, Iran and Turkey, through a common initiative by becoming ‘partners in peace.’

5 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

Key Takeaways

Pakistan - Part of the Solution, Not a Problem Pakistan was part of the solution for a peaceful Afghanistan and not a problem. All efforts to frame the narrative with such negative perceptions was detrimental for regional peace. ‘Peace & Regional Stability’ - Grand Policy Objective Pakistan must continue to peruse ‘Peace & Regional Stability’ as a grand policy objective in Afghanistan, supported by all its elements of national power. Engagement of Afghan and International Stakeholders Pakistan must play a proactive role in facilitating smooth withdrawal of the United States (US) and NATO troops through a well-coordinated strategy that enables Islamabad to retain the respect of the Afghan stakeholders and the international community. India - Spoiler in Afghanistan Past two decades of lawlessness in Afghanistan enabled India to develop close links with several terrorist organizations and insurgent outfits that operate from its territory to launch attacks and support insurgent activities inside Pakistan. Therefore, Indian activities, particularly near the Pak-Afghan border areas, require constant watch as a national security imperative. Crackdown on Terrorist Sympathizers Terrorist sympathizers within Pakistan may become a source of trouble for internal security. There is a need to closely identify and monitor all such organizations and individuals without discrimination. Keeping an eye on the sleeper cells of India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), Afghanistan National Directorate of Security (NDS), TTP, Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), and IS would require greater intelligence to enable their timely eradication and ensure that these outfits do not create more internal security issues for Pakistan or try to disrupt CPEC-related projects. Stronger Border Security Cross-border attacks from Afghan territory have already increased. In case of civil war, these could rise exponentially. Besides border fencing, Pakistan would also require greater aerial and ground-based real-time surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities to ensure security of Pak-Afghan border areas.

6 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

Influx of Afghan Refugees In case of serious turmoil in Afghanistan, Pakistan must be prepared and well- resourced to absorb and accommodate the influx of Afghan refugees. Timely preparation at the national, provincial, and local/administrative level (based on earlier lessons) would help mitigate the negative effects of refugees on Pakistan’s internal security and economy. Building Regional Connectivity & Expanding Export Base Pakistan should focus on strengthening bilateral trade and commerce, cultural ties, and cooperation in environmental issues with Afghanistan as well as try to expand exports to Central Asian states. A peaceful Afghanistan would give space to Pakistan to open up Central Asia as a major trading market.

7 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

Policy Directions

Political  There was a dire need of political settlement in Afghanistan to prevent the growing risk of civil war.  To achieve stability, all Afghan factions and stakeholders must strive to play a constructive role by forgoing personal interests and agendas.  For a cohesive and united social contract, the key is to rebuild the confidence of Afghan people in the state’s ability to ensure social and economic security. Diplomatic  The role of neighbors is critical for achieving peace, security and progress in Afghanistan and the region. Pakistan needs to pre-empt and endeavor to garner support of all stakeholders, particularly that of China, Iran, and Turkey for a stable Afghanistan, through a common regional objective of ‘partners in peace.’  Bilateral agreement between Afghanistan and Pakistan as well as agreements between Afghanistan and all its neighbors could help improve the prospects of peace in the country and the region. Security  In bilateral relations with Afghanistan, Pakistan needs to emphasize that India must not be allowed to exploit its presence in Kabul to destabilize Pakistan or to assist terrorist or insurgent groups.  It is imperative for Pakistan to enhance Pak-Afghan border security, particularly through real-time surveillance and intelligence to monitor and counter militants’ activities.  A timely contingency plan needs to be developed that can allow Pakistan to address the challenge of dealing with the massive inflow of refugees, in case of Afghan civil war and prevent the infiltration of anti-state elements into its territory.  According to recent reports, there has been a surge in private militias and Afghan warlords have been approaching other countries to get assistance in anticipation of a civil war. Foreign powers contributing to formation of such militias must resist the temptation to do so.

8 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

Financial Support & Trade  The United States, its allies and the international community must provide financial support towards the socioeconomic development of Afghanistan to enable the country stand on its own feet.  Pakistan and Afghanistan should enhance their bilateral relations in trade, tourism, climate change and culture.  At the national level, Afghans must focus on building their national institutions and sustainable socioeconomic development.

9 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

Dialogue Analysis Future of Afghanistan: US Perspective

Professor Dr Marvin G. Weinbaum The US and NATO forces would be gone by 11 September 2021 if not sooner, and there will be no residual ground presence of foreign forces. However, many states, including a few voices in the White House, are stressing the need to keep at least a small contingent of forces for counter-terrorism purposes. Taliban’s Mounting Clout Dr Marvin G. Weinbaum shared that the Taliban were presently operating from a position of military strength and were poised to mount attacks on all the provincial capitals and on Kabul by cutting off all traffic and co-opting areas thought to be secure. In fact, there had been increasing violence since the US- Taliban agreement was signed in February 2020, resultantly affecting the military forces and civilian population. He cautioned that a renewed campaign by the Afghan Taliban might erupt after the withdrawal of foreign forces. There would be no negotiated peace agreement with the Taliban - certainly not of the grand bargain variety. The Taliban have never been interested in power sharing. They have not given up on the idea of restoration of an emirate. Nature of Afghan Conflict Dr Weinbaum said that the Afghan conflict was not a fight for territory or power; it was a fight over values. According to him, the Taliban had recognized that while they could achieve ascendancy militarily, it would be long and difficult battle. The shortcut to power was through diplomatic or political means. What they aspire to, in way of political dominance, is an emirate. It would be different from the emirate of the 90s. It may be more inclusive of other groups, but at the same time, it would be entirely on Taliban’s terms. Strength of ANSF & Issue of Air Support On the issue of how long the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) could sustain themselves, there was no clear answer according to the American speaker, but the political system hinged on them standing on their own feet. According to the Professor, when it comes to the issue of air support, the US has promised to replace bases in Afghanistan with ‘over-the-horizon’ locations from which to launch operations and train Afghan military personnel. However, the ability to deliver on these and other promises was doubtful.

10 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

Role of the International Community Discussing how long the fatigued international community would continue to provide resources given that the Australians had pulled out of Kabul; and other NATO countries, including Turkey had doubts about whether they would stay, once the main force of international military presence was gone, the speaker stressed that: Without financial support to ANSF, there would not be a viable Afghan military response to the Taliban nor to the Islamic State. Role of Neighboring Countries Expressing his pessimism about the role of neighboring countries, Dr Weinbaum said that every country – from Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Russia, to China, India and Saudi Arabia - had played a role in Afghanistan’s history dating back to the 90s. He was of the view that under certain conditions, they might become involved in the future conflict and remarked: It is hard to imagine a successful Afghanistan, both its political existence as well as its economic success, without its neighbors. The neighbors are absolutely critical for the success of any Afghan state, but could they be helpful was the real issue. Role of the Afghan Political Elite The Afghan political elite must work together to maintain the path of peace and stability, if nothing else, to buy time to strengthen the country’s military forces and to resolve differences. The American speaker stressed that it was difficult to imagine any success unless the various factions which had been at extreme odds were able to pull together. Establishment of the Supreme State Council suggests that there was recognition that unless they stand together, they would fall apart separately.

India’s Involvement in Afghanistan Discussing Pakistan’s concerns about Indian involvement in Afghanistan, the Professor explained that the US does not have that kind of leverage with New Delhi. At the same time, he remarked that Washington had recognized Pakistan’s concerns and cautioned India. India’s behavior had become more careful not to give Pakistan more emulation than it needed to. At the same time, if India acted surreptitiously, the US was unlikely to have much influence.

11 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

United Nations & Peacekeeping in Afghanistan Regarding the role of United Nations peacekeeping forces in Afghanistan after US withdrawal, Dr Weinbaum highlighted that the only way one could foresee the UN’s role was if there was a peace agreement, which he did not see on the cards.

If anyone can make peace work, it is the Afghans themselves, who must make it possible.

US-Pakistan Relationship Given changing US priorities in Afghanistan, Prof. Weinbaum shared that future of the US-Pakistan relationship primarily depended on what would happen in Afghanistan. He was of the view that the US recognized that there would be no possibility of peace in Afghanistan without Pakistan.

How things transpire in Afghanistan will determine the future of US-Pakistan relations. Possible Scenarios in Afghanistan Dr Weinbaum presented several scenarios that might unfold in Afghanistan in the coming months: Scenario I: Military Defeat of the Taliban Militarily, the Taliban could be defeated but given the current alignment of forces, this was unlikely. This might be slightly probable if enough time were bought by unifying the country, regaining the confidence of the Afghan people in the government and its capacity to make their lives safer and provide jobs. If this was accomplished, there was a possibility, not of reconciliation with the Taliban, but of reintegration - of peeling off the opposition that was not hardcore, rather fighters who were in it for a variety of reasons (who could be classified as non-ideological), in comparison with some of the leadership.

Scenario II: Consolidation of Power by the Taliban If Taliban were able, in the very near future, to completely overrun the government and consolidate power, it could not be said to what extent they would have success in capturing territory now controlled by the government. However, the idea that they could consolidate power was highly unlikely because even if the government in Kabul was to collapse, there were powerbrokers with their own militias prepared to stand and fight against the Taliban much more effectively as they would recruit deserters from the ANSF. This would lead to a very different showdown against the Taliban. Scenario III: Indefinite Confrontation between the Taliban & Government Forces The most likely scenario was that the current standoff between the government and Taliban forces would continue indefinitely, with the former maintaining

12 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan control over the urban population, and the latter having the run on most rural areas. Scenario IV: Civil War in Afghanistan The fourth scenario was that the Taliban would be unable to consolidate power and the country would fall into an open-ended chaotic civil war. This would be a nightmare for all Afghans, for the region and globally since it could become far more intense, with possibility of expanding beyond Afghanistan than anything in the 1990s. Such a war would not be easily contained. However, Dr Weinbaum opined that such a scenario was only possible if the:  military dissolved;  political elite were unable to reach a degree of accommodation among themselves;  warlords fell back on their militias as suggested;  neighboring countries became involved through proxies, as some did in the 1990s; and,  millions of refugees poured into the region.

Potential Refugee Crisis Dr Weinbaum noted that there were already 600,000 refugees in Turkey. This would increase as Pakistan had put up a border fence, but even that would not matter if millions tried to make it to the borders. He concluded that that there was potential for protracted civil war, and what must be kept in mind is the impact of such an outcome on ordinary Afghans, and the suffering such a scenario would bring. Future of Afghanistan: Afghan Perspective

Dr Torek Farhadi, Former Advisor to the President of Afghanistan

Towards a Joint Partnership Pakistan is an essential neighbor of Afghanistan and the two countries should work on a strong joint partnership. For this, he proposed four areas on which Pakistan and Afghanistan should focus:  Trade potential & complementarities;  Tourism;  Cultural Engagement/People-to-people linkages; and,  Security.

13 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

Trade Potential & Complementarities If there was peace, trade potential from Pakistan to Afghanistan and vice versa, could reach up to USD 8 billion. According to Dr Farhadi, if trade potential between Afghanistan and Pakistan was truly tapped, it would increase Pakistan’s exports by 40%. The speaker proposed that Afghanistan could become Pakistan’s gateway to the Central Asian Republics (CARs). While discussing potential areas of cooperation, he recommended that the Karachi Stock Exchange should also host some Afghan corporations to attract capital from the Gulf and Asian regions. Discussions on bilateral trade, transit trade, PTA [Preferential Trade Agreement] and moving trade to a more formal and documented arrangement is essential for both countries.

Tourism The speaker appraised that even before COVID-19, tourism potential on both sides of the border had remained untapped due to fear of terrorism. There needs to be a unified strategy for efficient and cost-effective development and promotion of interlinked tourist attractions and facilities in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Given that global tourism trends were changing from single country tourism to multi- country tourism, the two countries needed to improve their security situation and work towards cost-effective approaches to attract not only Western tourists, but also from across the borders.

Cultural Exchange Over the past several decades, Pakistan has been hosting about 1.4 million documented Afghan refugees. Young Afghans currently serving at significant positions in Afghanistan have benefitted from Pakistan’s education sector. Dr Farhadi stressed that one of the key foreign policy principles between the two countries should include strengthening people-to-people contacts. Building close cooperative relations was vital for a peaceful neighborhood.

Security Security remains a core issue between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan sees Indian influence in Afghanistan as a risk. However, Afghanistan shares ties with India just as it has maintained relations with any other nation. Hence, India- Afghanistan relations should not be a risk to Pakistan. According to Dr Farhadi, Afghanistan might be amenable to developing a relationship with India which was more acceptable to Pakistan to mitigate its concerns. However, Pakistan would then have to address the Afghan government’s concerns about Taliban leaders living inside its territory.

14 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

Under a paradigm change, he said, Pakistan should pressurize Taliban leaders to consider a peaceful settlement and not follow the path of conflict and suffering.

Pakistan’s Ultimatum to the Taliban

The government and military establishment should communicate to the Taliban that Pakistan would not recognize their authority if they seized power forcefully. In Dr Farhadi’s view, such a staunch stance was likely to dissuade the Taliban from overthrowing the government in Kabul. He shared that both states would lose out if violence and extremism continued in the region stalling the proposed trade, economic, cultural, and tourism potential for decades. The speaker was convinced that a political settlement was required for stability in Afghanistan; and cautioned that if there was civil war after US withdrawal, it would benefit no one.

Afghan Population & Taliban The speaker highlighted the changing demography in Kabul; and said that although different territories had fallen to the Taliban, the big cities would not fall easily due to more awareness in the young urban Afghan population.

This time, if conflict erupts in different segments of Afghan society, including the Taliban, it would be an exceedingly long, challenging, and inconclusive one. If the latter try to take over, Afghan citizens would mobilize around the government to fight them. Explaining why people would support the government, he added that a vast majority of Afghans had become financially stable because of US interventions. According to Dr Farhadi, there were Afghans who now had USD 300-400 million in their bank accounts; and they now hired militias to safeguard their economic interests and do not want the Taliban to return to power.

Likelihood of Civil War The former Advisor was confident that if Pakistan put more pressure on the Taliban, it could mitigate the likelihood of civil war. He concluded that Afghanistan and Pakistan could turn the tide and make the region a zone of opportunity, trade, commerce, and transit. Yet, for that, both states needed to deal with Taliban and extremism.

15 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

Future of Afghanistan: Security Dynamics & Options for Pakistan

Lieutenant General (Retd), Former Chief of General Staff, Lieutenant General Ahmad was pessimistic about the current situation in Afghanistan. He discussed the significance of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), challenges associated with implementing CPA, and the capacity capability of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF); and focused on the scenario most likely to emerge in Afghanistan, post-US withdrawal.

US’ Future Military Interventions: In Retreat due to the Afghan Experience Although the present situation in Afghanistan is being termed as ‘stalemate’, from a military perspective, it could be considered a victory for the insurgents. He argued that like the Vietnam War, the US’ military intervention in Afghanistan - its longest war - had also failed. Like in Vietnam, the US was about to cut and run from Afghanistan.

The US is all set to achieve an artificial closure, which is neither a condition- based withdrawal nor a responsible one. Such a departure will have far and wide policy ramifications, affecting China, Russia, India, Iran, Pakistan, and NATO. Lt. General Ahmad held that the US administration’s current as well as past intervention experiences would be extensively blamed for wasting the taxpayer’s money for over two decades and suffering extensive casualties without adequate results.

Failure in Afghanistan, coming on the heels of Iraq, would add insult to injury. Hence, this could result in reduced US military involvement in future conflicts.

Fault-lines in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) The speaker was uncertain whether the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) would conclude by September 2021 because parties to the initial negotiations had not considered various challenging aspects.

The agreement itself is a very brief document; and may not remain significant once the US completely withdraws its troops. Furthermore, he said that there was a high probability that the US would leave Afghanistan, regardless of the peace agreement. According to Lt. General Ahmad, even the Intra-Afghan dialogue, which was part of the peace agreement, would remain highly challenging.

16 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

Even if there were a political settlement by September, implementation of CPA would remain fraught with difficulties. A single stakeholder cannot guarantee stability in Afghanistan vis-à-vis implementation of the peace agreement.

Rectifying Fault-lines in CPA

For a CPA to succeed, it would have to encompass cessation of hostilities; political and security power-sharing; troop withdrawal; constitutional reforms; transition methodology; and implementation mechanism. A CPA would not succeed without the US’ handholding. The speaker agreed that this approach would be challenging but bringing all parties to the table might help in simplifying complexities; and suggested that there should be a declaration by supporting states, i.e., ‘friends of Afghanistan,’ to back the country post-US departure.

Pakistan’s Role The speaker assured that Pakistan would remain actively involved in any regional efforts for peace and stability in Afghanistan. However, he argued that in the light of previous experience, Pakistan would not want to be scapegoated this time. He affirmed that peace in Afghanistan would mean peace in Pakistan, and therefore, there was need for a formal Pakistan-Afghanistan agreement.

Despite border-fencing being set up, some militant groups may try to cross into Pakistani territory. The administration of the newly merged FATA areas would also come under duress, including the provincial government in Peshawar. Therefore, stability in Afghanistan is directly proportional to Pakistan’s security.

Peace Process: Afghan-Led or Afghan-Owned? Lt. General Ahmad deliberated on how the Taliban had traditionally sustained their fight over the years through drugs, mining, forced taxation, and seizing weapons from attacks on government checkpoints/facilities.

The Taliban have proved to be a resilient enemy, one that engaged in strategic planning and coordination. However, looking at the Taliban as the enemies now would be a significant challenge in bringing peace and stability to Afghanistan. Now, we must look at them as an equal party to the peace process. According to the Pakistani speaker, the peace plan proposed by President Ashraf Ghani was a non-starter. He suspected that the Taliban would neither accept elections under the current Afghan constitution nor under President Ashraf Ghani. He argued that any progress in negotiations was due to direct US engagement with the Taliban. Hence, at this point, ‘there was no such thing as Afghan-led, but the talks must remain Afghan-owned.’

17 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

Peace in Afghanistan Elusive Post-US Departure

The Taliban are likely to play along until the departure of US forces. Afterward, they may lose all interest and motivation for a peace agreement or implementation of it, whether finalized before the US departure or not. In fact, following complete troop withdrawal, the US would not be able to hold the Taliban accountable for fulfilling their end of the bargain. Lt. General Ahmad was of the view that instead of gradual departure, the US decision to withdraw forces abruptly was a huge mistake. According to him, there would now be no one responsible to ensure that the Taliban implemented what had been (or would be) decided. The speaker held that this might eventually lead to either of the following situations: 1. Splintering of Taliban (further complicating the peace process and stability of Afghanistan). 2. Taliban leadership may renege on promises made to retain unity amongst their ranks (even if convinced about the peace agreement, it would be challenging for the other ranks to accept any compromises as US withdrawal was a clear victory for them).

Future of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) The Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) represent most ethnicities, especially in the officer class. According to the Pakistani speaker, there were approx. 288,000 police officers in the Force, although there were claims of its actual strength being over 500,000.

If ANSF comes under pressure, it may begin to disintegrate. Keeping in view the 30% attrition rate of the Afghan Army, the speaker cautioned that this number could potentially increase after the US’ withdrawal. He further added that the question of financially supporting ANSF to sustain itself was still unanswered by the US Congress. The speaker observed that eventually, in any combat between the Taliban and Afghan forces (post-US withdrawal), the Afghans would support the winning side or the power most likely to win to protect their life, livelihoods and property.

Possibility of Taliban Governing Afghanistan

Whether the Taliban come to power through the democratic process of elections or by using force, this time, their manner of governance would be intense than the last time. In the speaker’s analysis, this might be the case based on two primary reasons: 1. Over the years, the Afghan government had self-generated only USD 800 million per year. Depending on the financial assistance from external ‘friends’,

18 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

the Taliban would want this financial support to continue to whatever degree possible. 2. Taliban had learnt from experience that an extreme form of governance could dry up external funding and might get the United Nations or other countries involved, creating complications for their government.

Most Likely Scenario: Civil War

The CPA would eventually fail, Afghanistan would descend into chaotic civil war, and the Afghan Army would disintegrate. While there would be islands of comparative stability, maintained by local warlords and their militias, the Taliban would remain dominant, with likely control of Kabul. Lt. General Ahmad concluded that Afghanistan, in all probability, would replicate the violence that broke out in Iraq when the Americans left. According to him, all these developments might take only 1-2 years. To mitigate the chance of civil war, the US should play a significant role by delaying its troops’ departure until elections are held, and a transitional government is in place. Future of Afghanistan and Geopolitical Implications for Pakistan

Ambassador Jalil Abbas Jilani (Retd), Director Foreign Policy & Diplomacy, Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies, Pakistan

Uncertainty in Afghanistan Ambassador Jilani explained that the unfolding situation in Afghanistan was fraught with risks and uncertainty. The absence of national consensus on the peace process coupled with the spurt in violence, resurgence of ISIS, al-Qaeda, TTP and other extremist organizations and the emergence of foreign-funded militias was indicative that chances of Afghanistan descending into greater chaos could not be ruled out. According to the Ambassador, the sense of insecurity was rising with the withdrawal of US troops, but what was most worrying was that the excellent work which had taken place in Afghanistan, was now in jeopardy.

The US, with the help of other countries, was able to build state institutions. With the help of local factions in Afghanistan, they were able to introduce an electoral process, promote education, empower women, and train the national security forces. The sustainability of these initiatives has now become a significant challenge owing to the political ambitions of various warlords, the fragmented nature of Afghan polity, ethnic divisions, greed, and outside interference in Afghanistan. Afghan Peace Process & the Question of Commitment Discussing the previous internal and external efforts to bring peace and stability to the country, Ambassador Jilani highlighted that the Peshawar Accord of 1990, the

19 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

Islamabad Accord of 1993, and the Bonn Process of 2001, had all failed due to internal divisions and personal interests. There were serious doubts about the success of the ongoing peace process as well which was facing a stalemate. A stalemate, in his view, meant victory of insurgent groups. In his analysis, the most important question following the US-NATO withdrawal was one of ‘Commitment’ - commitment within Afghanistan of various groups to bring about peace and stability in the country; commitment of neighboring countries to the peace process; and commitment of the US and other countries.

Will regional countries overcome their temptations to meddle in Afghanistan’s internal affairs and contribute to a stable Afghanistan? The answer does not give any confidence because according to various reports, the Taliban have been pressurizing various warlords in Afghanistan who are receiving funds and equipment from other countries to develop their own armies in anticipation of civil war.

Impacts of Lack of Financial Support The CASS Director stressed that the US and advanced countries must support Afghanistan economically and fulfil their financial commitments since this was of paramount importance. Unless money continued to pour into Afghanistan’s governance system, the country risked deteriorating into a state of lawlessness, giving space to extremist elements. Given his experience in the US, Ambassador Jilani argued that the US administration would not be able to convince Congress to approve funds for Afghanistan, and even if funds were sanctioned, they would be significantly reduced. Another major issue, he stressed, was whether the funds would be enough to sustain the institutions that had been established with the help of other countries.

Pakistan’s Perspective The fear from Pakistan’s perspective was that despite its acknowledged productive role in the ongoing peace process, there were signals from the US that the blame would be laid on its doorstep if results in Afghanistan were not achieved. He referred to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s article in the Foreign Affairs titled ‘Afghanistan’s Moment of Risk and Opportunity’, in which he had conveniently raised suspicions about Pakistan’s role in the peace process while sidestepping issues internal to Afghanistan. According to the speaker, President Ghani’s long-standing bias against Pakistan was clearly visible throughout the article, in which he attempted to find a scapegoat for domestic failures in Afghanistan. Ambassador Jilani also clarified that former Afghan President Karzai’s allegations in his Der Spiegel interview that Pakistan wanted Afghanistan to cut-off relations with India, had no truth in it.

20 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

At no stage did Pakistan ever ask Afghanistan to cut off relations with India. It does not serve Pakistan’s interests that relations between Afghanistan and other countries are cut off. It is Afghanistan’s sovereign decision. Pakistan only wants that India should not be allowed to exploit its presence in Afghanistan to destabilize nor aid groups trying to destabilize our country. Recommendations for Improving On-Ground Situation in Afghanistan Ambassador Jilani was of the belief that all hope was not lost. The situation could still be reversed and there was room for optimism if the following principles were followed to generate positive momentum:

National Consensus Supportive of the Peace Process  All Afghan stakeholders should show flexibility for a peaceful future; and move towards national consensus supportive of the peace process.  Violence must end.  Afghans must realize that following withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the entire responsibility for peace would rest on their shoulders. They must put their own house in order. They must put their economy back on track and strengthen the institutions which have been established.

Forming a National Unity Government  Efforts must be made by all Afghan groups in putting together a government of national unity.

Constructive Role of Taliban and other Political Factions  Political (neutral) factions in Kabul, other than the Afghan government and Taliban, must come forward in playing a constructive role in diffusing tensions.

Role of Regional & Global Powers  Willingness of outside powers, particularly the US, Russia, Pakistan, China, India, and Iran to exert themselves for peace and discourage violence in Afghanistan will be an important step towards a successful peace process.  India must confine its role within legitimate limits.

Forestalling Formation of Private Militias  According to recent reports, there has been a surge in private militias and Afghan warlords have been approaching other countries to get assistance in anticipation of a civil war. Foreign powers contributing to formation of such militias must resist the temptation to do so. A civil war is not in the interest of Afghanistan, nor its neighbours. This will provide space to al-Qaeda, ISIS, and TTP etc. to exploit the situation to their advantage.

21 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

International Economic Support  The promise of substantive international economic support is critical to sustain the peace process. This will raise the morale and confidence of the Afghan population and is necessary for the survival of institutions established so far.  Economic assistance will also prevent the exodus of Afghans to neighboring countries.

Restricted Role of Regional Countries  Regional countries must steer clear off the internal military and political dynamics of Afghanistan and confine their role to the economic well-being of the people of Afghanistan.

What Should Pakistan Do?  Whatever the outcome of the peace process in Afghanistan, it is imperative for Pakistan to continue to display the same level of commitment towards the Afghan peace process as before.  Contingency planning is needed to deal with the potentially massive inflow of Afghan refugees and prevent infiltration of anti-Pakistan elements into the country.  Any attacks on security forces and civilians could prove disastrous. Hence, Pakistan needs to fortify its security arrangements along the Pak-Afghan border and enhance surveillance and intelligence protocols to monitor, track and arrest militants.  Pakistan must be prepared for any and all repercussions of a swift US withdrawal. Concluding Remarks

Air Marshal Farhat Hussain Khan (Retd), Deputy President, Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies, Pakistan

Withdrawal - A Ray of Hope

After suffering for four decades, withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan brings a ray of hope for much-needed peace and stability of the entire region in general, and Pakistan and Afghanistan, in particular. The Deputy President agreed with all the speakers that a peaceful Afghanistan would bring prosperity when trade and energy routes to Central Asia, China, Russia and Iran would get activated; and act as a catapult to economic prosperity. However, despite signs of hope, he also admitted that the current unveiling situation posed serious challenges that needed timely response with an emphasis on commonality of

22 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan interests of all the stakeholders. He was of the view that while the US may not be there on ground, its networks were likely to continue impacting the post-withdrawal situation. The Afghan government and Taliban rivalry could also become major spoilers if the two sides did not come to an understanding on governance, he said. According to Air Marshal Khan, India, with or without US connivance, would continue its negativity and create trouble in Pakistan to disrupt life, most specifically CPEC – a common US-India objective.

Pakistan needs to be well-prepared for the post-withdrawal phase of Afghanistan. It needs to pre-empt and endeavor to garner support of all stakeholders, particularly China, Iran, and Turkey for a stable Afghanistan through the common regional objective of ‘partners in peace.’ Multilateralism rather than bilateralism is the way to help Afghanistan become a peaceful and stable region.

23 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

Annexure I Profiles of Speakers

Air Marshal Farhat Hussain Khan (Retd), HI (M) Air Marshal Farhat Hussain Khan (Retd) is the Deputy President, Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS), Pakistan. He was commissioned in GD (P) Branch of the PAF, in March 1977. After commissioning, he served as a fighter pilot in various frontline fighter squadrons. During his service, he remained on various important command and staff appointments. His command assignments included command of a fighter squadron, a fighter wing and an operational PAF airbase. His appointments at Air Headquarters included Additional Director General (ADG) Air Force Strategic Command, Chief Project Director of JF-17 program and Vice Chief of the Air Staff, an appointment he held till his retirement in July 2013. He has also served as Chairman Pakistan Aeronautical Complex Board (PACB) at Kamra. He has been President Ski Federation of Pakistan, on CAA Board and Chairman Monitoring Committee of Islamabad and Multan Airports. The Air Marshal has also served as Pakistan’s Air Attaché at New Delhi, India. Air Marshal Farhat has qualified various professional courses including Combat Commanders’ Course, Air War Course and National Defence Course. He holds two Master’s degrees, one from the University of Karachi and one in Defense and Strategic Studies from the National Defence University, Pakistan. He is the co-author of two books “The Aviation City” and “Milestones” about the growth of military aviation industry in Pakistan and its way forward. After retirement from service, he started work on building Pakistan’s Aircraft Manufacturing Industries with a civilian partner in the private sector. He is the sitting Chairman of Scaled Aviation Pvt Ltd, the first and only aircraft manufacturing industry in Pakistan, presently engaged in manufacturing two-seat trainers, and has ventured into designing a purely indigenous six-seat aircraft. He is a recipient of Sitara-i-Imtiaz (Military), Hilal-i-Imtiaz (Military) and Sitara-i-Basalat.

Professor Dr Marvin G. Weinbaum Dr Marvin G. Weinbaum is Professor Emeritus of Political Science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and served as analyst for Pakistan and Afghanistan in the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research from 1999 to 2003. He is currently director for Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies at The Middle East Institute, Washington, D.C. At Illinois, Dr Weinbaum served for fifteen years as the director of the Program in South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies. His research, teaching, and consultancies have focused on the issues of national security, state building, democratization, and political economy in Afghanistan and Pakistan. He is the author or editor of six books and has written more than 100 journal articles and book chapters. Dr Weinbaum was awarded Fulbright Research Fellowships for Egypt in 1981–82 and Afghanistan in 1989–90, and was a senior fellow at the United States Institute of Peace in 1996–97. He has been the recipient of research awards from the Social Science Research Council, the Ford Foundation, the American Political Science Association, and other granting agencies.

24 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

Dr Torek Farhadi Dr Torek Farhadi served as Economic Advisor to former President of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai. He has also served as Senior Advisor Central Bank and Ministry of Finance, Kabul, Afghanistan. He has also been the head of Investment Promotion Technical Assistance Program (ITAP), Senior Strategy Officer and Economist at the World Bank, Advisor to the Executive Director at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Dr Farhadi is an internationally respected political analyst and frequently appears on international forums and media to offer his analysis of the ongoing situation in Afghanistan.

Lieutenant General Ishfaq Nadeem Ahmad (Retd), HI (M) Lieutenant General Ishfaq Nadeem Ahmad (Retd) is a former Chief of General Staff of Pakistan Army. Earlier, he commanded the II Corps of Pakistan Army. He also served as the Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) and Chief of Staff of . He planned Pakistan Army’s famous Operation Zarb- e-Azb during his tenure as DGMO. Earlier, he commanded a strike Infantry Division and led successful military operations in Swat. In recognition of his meritorious services, he was awarded Hilal-i-Imtiaz (Military) in August 2011.

Ambassador Jalil Abbas Jilani (Retd) Ambassador Jalil Abbas Jilani has 38 years of bilateral and multilateral experience as a career diplomat, having served as Pakistan’s Ambassador to the United States, Belgium, Luxemburg, the European Union, and Australia. Ambassador Jilani also served as the Foreign Secretary of Pakistan as the senior-most civil service official in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA). Currently, he is Director Foreign Policy and Diplomacy at the Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS), Pakistan. He is a specialist in South Asian affairs and has worked as Director General for South Asia and SAARC, Deputy/Acting High Commissioner to India and Director (India) at MoFA. In 2018, the Government of Pakistan nominated Ambassador Jilani as member of the Experts and Eminent Persons Group (EEP) of the ASEAN Regional Forum9; and later in 2019, as member of the Prime Minister’s Advisory Council on Foreign Affairs. Most recently, Ambassador Jilani served as Senior Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), UK and the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), USA.

Syed Muhammad Ali Syed Muhammad Ali is Director, Nuclear and Strategic Affairs at the Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS), Pakistan. He has rich experience of high-level multilateral and bilateral negotiations on strategic and security issues with the US, China and India. He has authored, edited, and co- authored several policy papers, books on foreign, security, energy and nuclear policy, strategy, and doctrines. He has led, advised, and served on the board of several think tanks. He also teaches at the National Defence University, Foreign Service Academy, Air War College and Pakistan Institute of Applied Sciences. He is a frequent analyst on global and regional affairs on international media including BBC, Voice of America, TRT, Al-Jazeera, Arab News, PTV World, Radio Pakistan and several others.

25 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

Annexure II Press Release

“Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan” Neighbouring countries must help Afghanistan reach an “Afghan-led” power-sharing arrangement and become “partners in peace.” There should be a financial commitment to support Afghanistan by the US and its allies as it struggles to stand on its own feet. Pak-Afghan cooperation can turn the region into a zone of opportunity, trade, commerce, and transit.

These were some of major conclusions of the international webinar on “Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan”, organised by the Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS) here in Islamabad. Speakers from the United States (US), Afghanistan and Pakistan critically evaluated the emerging complex dynamics within Afghanistan and their likely impact on Pakistan’s politics, security, and economy. They helped identify timely policy measures that need to be considered by the relevant stakeholders to deal with the evolving situation on Pakistan’s western borders. In his Introductory Remarks, Syed Muhammad Ali, Director, Nuclear and Strategic Affairs at CASS and webinar moderator, said that the international community, regional powers, and Afghan stakeholders would have to learn from the bitter and costly conflict history and in the shared interest of regional peace and security, work together to prevent continuation or further escalation and expansion of conflict in Afghanistan and its adverse consequences for South, West and Central Asia. Offering his insight on the US’ withdrawal plan, Prof. Dr Marvin G. Weinbaum, Director at the Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, Middle East Institute, Washington, D.C, observed that there was no longer any possibility of a negotiated peace in Afghanistan following the US announcement. He warned that it was likely that now there would be even greater violence than ever before setting the stage for an open-ended, proxy-driven civil war that would create millions of refugees and destabilize the region. The Taliban, according to him, appeared to be eyeing a military victory, but their campaign to dislodge the Kabul government, along with its constitutional foundations, was both political and psychological. Neighbouring countries were critical for the success of the Afghan state, but whether they would be supportive or act as spoilers remained to be seen, he said. On Afghanistan-Pakistan relations, Dr Torek Farhadi, former Advisor to the President of Afghanistan, highlighted that there were four areas where there was great potential for the two sides to work together - trade, trade potential and complementarities; cultural engagement; tourism;

26 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan environment and climate change. Dr Farhadi appealed that the Taliban need to understand that once foreign troops left and there was civil war, it would not benefit anyone, not the Afghans, not Pakistan, everyone would lose. Lieutenant General Ishfaq Nadeem Ahmad (Retd), former Chief of General Staff, Pakistan Army, pointed out that a Pakistan-Afghanistan agreement needed to be put in place along with an agreement by supporting states (friends of Afghanistan) willing to support Kabul post-US departure. He stressed the urgency of a financial commitment by the US, its allies, and other developed countries to support Afghanistan as it struggles to get back on its feet. “A civil war-like situation can only be avoided or mitigated if there is delay in the departure of US troops, general elections are held and a new transitional government put in place in Kabul,” he remarked. Ambassador Jalil Abbas Jilani (Retd), Director at CASS and former Foreign Secretary of Pakistan, was of the view that the ongoing peace process had stalemated. Despite that, whatever the outcome of the peace process, it was imperative for Islamabad to continue to display the same level of commitment towards Afghanistan’s peace and stability. The former Foreign Secretary also stressed that contingency planning would be needed on Pakistan’s part to deal with the massive inflow of refugees and prevent the infiltration of anti-state elements into the country in case of a civil war. In his Concluding Remarks, Deputy President CASS and former Vice Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshal Farhat Hussain Khan (Retd) emphasized that peace in Afghanistan was the key to regional peace. Regional stability would provide access to trade routes and energy corridors between Pakistan, Central Asian Republics and beyond and could be a catapult to economic prosperity. However, he cautioned that any internal fighting amongst various factions, particularly between the Taliban and the Kabul government, would pose a serious challenge to regional peace. The Deputy President stressed that failure to achieve stability in Afghanistan would have serious implications on Pakistan’s economic and internal security emerging out of influx of refugees and terror activities. According to him, CPEC was likely to come under serious pressure. “Pakistan needs to pre-empt and endeavour to garner support of all stakeholders, particularly China, Iran and Turkey in support of a stable Afghanistan through a common regional objective of ‘partners in peace’”, he concluded.

27 | P a g e

Future of Afghanistan: Implications and Options for Pakistan

CENTRE for AEROSPACE & SECURITY STUDIES (CASS) Old Airport Road, Islamabad, Pakistan Tel: +92 051 5405011; 03015758003 Institutional URL: https://casstt.com/ Twitter: @CassThinkers Facebook: cass.thinkers LinkedIn: Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies Instagram: cassthinkers YouTube: Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies

28 | P a g e