Advisory Circular 00-24C: Thunderstorms
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
A Study of Synoptic-Scale Tornado Regimes
Garner, J. M., 2013: A study of synoptic-scale tornado regimes. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 8 (3), 1–25. A Study of Synoptic-Scale Tornado Regimes JONATHAN M. GARNER NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK (Submitted 21 November 2012; in final form 06 August 2013) ABSTRACT The significant tornado parameter (STP) has been used by severe-thunderstorm forecasters since 2003 to identify environments favoring development of strong to violent tornadoes. The STP and its individual components of mixed-layer (ML) CAPE, 0–6-km bulk wind difference (BWD), 0–1-km storm-relative helicity (SRH), and ML lifted condensation level (LCL) have been calculated here using archived surface objective analysis data, and then examined during the period 2003−2010 over the central and eastern United States. These components then were compared and contrasted in order to distinguish between environmental characteristics analyzed for three different synoptic-cyclone regimes that produced significantly tornadic supercells: cold fronts, warm fronts, and drylines. Results show that MLCAPE contributes strongly to the dryline significant-tornado environment, while it was less pronounced in cold- frontal significant-tornado regimes. The 0–6-km BWD was found to contribute equally to all three significant tornado regimes, while 0–1-km SRH more strongly contributed to the cold-frontal significant- tornado environment than for the warm-frontal and dryline regimes. –––––––––––––––––––––––– 1. Background and motivation As detailed in Hobbs et al. (1996), synoptic- scale cyclones that foster tornado development Parameter-based and pattern-recognition evolve with time as they emerge over the central forecast techniques have been essential and eastern contiguous United States (hereafter, components of anticipating tornadoes in the CONUS). -
Soaring Weather
Chapter 16 SOARING WEATHER While horse racing may be the "Sport of Kings," of the craft depends on the weather and the skill soaring may be considered the "King of Sports." of the pilot. Forward thrust comes from gliding Soaring bears the relationship to flying that sailing downward relative to the air the same as thrust bears to power boating. Soaring has made notable is developed in a power-off glide by a conven contributions to meteorology. For example, soar tional aircraft. Therefore, to gain or maintain ing pilots have probed thunderstorms and moun altitude, the soaring pilot must rely on upward tain waves with findings that have made flying motion of the air. safer for all pilots. However, soaring is primarily To a sailplane pilot, "lift" means the rate of recreational. climb he can achieve in an up-current, while "sink" A sailplane must have auxiliary power to be denotes his rate of descent in a downdraft or in come airborne such as a winch, a ground tow, or neutral air. "Zero sink" means that upward cur a tow by a powered aircraft. Once the sailcraft is rents are just strong enough to enable him to hold airborne and the tow cable released, performance altitude but not to climb. Sailplanes are highly 171 r efficient machines; a sink rate of a mere 2 feet per second. There is no point in trying to soar until second provides an airspeed of about 40 knots, and weather conditions favor vertical speeds greater a sink rate of 6 feet per second gives an airspeed than the minimum sink rate of the aircraft. -
The Observation of the Lightning Induced Variations in Atmospheric Ions
XV International Conference on Atmospheric Electricity, 15-20 June 2014, Norman, Oklahoma, U.S.A. The Observation of the Lightning Induced Variations in Atmospheric Ions Xuemeng Chen1,*, Hanna E. Manninen1,2, Pasi Aalto1, Petri Keronen1, Antti Mäkelä3, Jussi Paatero3, Tuukka Petäjä1 and Markku Kulmala1 1. Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland 2. Institute of Physics, University of Tartu, Estonia 3. Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland ABSTRACT: Variations in atmospheric ion concentration were studied in a boreal forest in Finland, with emphasis on the effect of lightning. In general, changes in ion concentrations have diurnal and seasonal patterns. Distinct features were found in ions of different size ranges, namely small ions (0.8 – 1.7 nm) and intermediate ions (1.7 – 7 nm). Preliminary results on two case studies of lightning effect are present, one with rain effect and the other not. Bursts in the concentrations of small ions and intermediate ions were observed in both cases. However, different trends in trace gases were observed for the two cases. Further investigation is needed to reveal the nature of lightning ions and the mechanism in their formation. The work is under progress. INTRODUCTION Atmospheric ions, or air ions, refer to electric charge carriers present in the atmosphere. Distinct features exist in their chemical composition, mass, size as well as number of carried charges. According to Tammet [1998], atmospheric ions can be classified into small or cluster ions, intermediate ions, and large ions based on their mobility (Z) in air, being Z > 0.5 cm2V-1s-1, 0.5 cm2V-1s-1 ≤ Z ≥ 0.03 cm2V-1s-1 and Z< 0.03 cm2V-1s-1, respectively. -
Weather Charts Natural History Museum of Utah – Nature Unleashed Stefan Brems
Weather Charts Natural History Museum of Utah – Nature Unleashed Stefan Brems Across the world, many different charts of different formats are used by different governments. These charts can be anything from a simple prognostic chart, used to convey weather forecasts in a simple to read visual manner to the much more complex Wind and Temperature charts used by meteorologists and pilots to determine current and forecast weather conditions at high altitudes. When used properly these charts can be the key to accurately determining the weather conditions in the near future. This Write-Up will provide a brief introduction to several common types of charts. Prognostic Charts To the untrained eye, this chart looks like a strange piece of modern art that an angry mathematician scribbled numbers on. However, this chart is an extremely important resource when evaluating the movement of weather fronts and pressure areas. Fronts Depicted on the chart are weather front combined into four categories; Warm Fronts, Cold Fronts, Stationary Fronts and Occluded Fronts. Warm fronts are depicted by red line with red semi-circles covering one edge. The front movement is indicated by the direction the semi- circles are pointing. The front follows the Semi-Circles. Since the example above has the semi-circles on the top, the front would be indicated as moving up. Cold fronts are depicted as a blue line with blue triangles along one side. Like warm fronts, the direction in which the blue triangles are pointing dictates the direction of the cold front. Stationary fronts are frontal systems which have stalled and are no longer moving. -
The Error Is the Feature: How to Forecast Lightning Using a Model Prediction Error [Applied Data Science Track, Category Evidential]
The Error is the Feature: How to Forecast Lightning using a Model Prediction Error [Applied Data Science Track, Category Evidential] Christian Schön Jens Dittrich Richard Müller Saarland Informatics Campus Saarland Informatics Campus German Meteorological Service Big Data Analytics Group Big Data Analytics Group Offenbach, Germany ABSTRACT ACM Reference Format: Despite the progress within the last decades, weather forecasting Christian Schön, Jens Dittrich, and Richard Müller. 2019. The Error is the is still a challenging and computationally expensive task. Current Feature: How to Forecast Lightning using a Model Prediction Error: [Ap- plied Data Science Track, Category Evidential]. In Proceedings of 25th ACM satellite-based approaches to predict thunderstorms are usually SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD ’19). based on the analysis of the observed brightness temperatures in ACM, New York, NY, USA, 10 pages. different spectral channels and emit a warning if a critical threshold is reached. Recent progress in data science however demonstrates 1 INTRODUCTION that machine learning can be successfully applied to many research fields in science, especially in areas dealing with large datasets. Weather forecasting is a very complex and challenging task requir- We therefore present a new approach to the problem of predicting ing extremely complex models running on large supercomputers. thunderstorms based on machine learning. The core idea of our Besides delivering forecasts for variables such as the temperature, work is to use the error of two-dimensional optical flow algorithms one key task for meteorological services is the detection and pre- applied to images of meteorological satellites as a feature for ma- diction of severe weather conditions. -
Imagine2014 8B3 02 Gehrke
Loss Adjustment via Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) – Experiences and Challenges for Crop Insurance Thomas Gehrke, Regional Director Berlin, Resp. for International Affairs Loss Adjustment via UAS - Experiences and 20.10.2014 1 Challenges for Crop Insurance Structure 1. Introduction – Demo 2. Vereinigte Hagel – Market leader in Europe 3. Precision Agriculture – UAS 4. Crop insurance – Loss adjustment via UAS 5. Challenges and Conclusion Loss Adjustment via UAS - Experiences and Challenges for Crop Insurance 20.10.2014 2 Introduction – Demo Short film (not in pdf-file) Loss Adjustment via UAS - Experiences and Challenges for Crop Insurance 20.10.2014 3 Structure 1. Introduction – Demo 2. Vereinigte Hagel – Market leader in Europe 3. Precision Agriculture – UAS 4. Crop insurance – Loss adjustment via UAS 5. Challenges and Conclusion Loss Adjustment via UAS - Experiences and Challenges for Crop Insurance 20.10.2014 4 190 years of experience Secufarm® 1 Hail * Loss Adjustment via UAS - Experiences and Challenges for Crop Insurance 20.10.2014 5 2013-05-09, Hail – winter barley Loss Adjustment via UAS - Experiences and Challenges for Crop Insurance 20.10.2014 6 … and 4 weeks later Loss Adjustment via UAS - Experiences and Challenges for Crop Insurance 20.10.2014 7 Our Line of MPCI* Products PROFESSIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT is crucial part of modern agriculture. With Secufarm® products, farmers can decide individually which agricultural Secufarm® 6 crops they would like to insure against ® Fire & Drought which risks. Secufarm 4 Frost Secufarm® 3 Storm & Intense Rain Secufarm® 1 certain crop types are eligible Hail only for Secufarm 1 * MPCI: Multi Peril Crop Insurance Loss Adjustment via UAS - Experiences and Challenges for Crop Insurance 20.10.2014 8 Insurable Damages and their Causes Hail Storm Frost WEATHER RISKS are increasing further. -
More Observations of Small Funnel Clouds and Other Tubular Clouds
3714 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 133 PICTURE OF THE MONTH More Observations of Small Funnel Clouds and Other Tubular Clouds HOWARD B. BLUESTEIN School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma (Manuscript received 14 March 2005, in final form 20 May 2005) ABSTRACT In this brief contribution, photographic documentation is provided of a variety of small, tubular-shaped clouds and of a small funnel cloud pendant from a convective cloud that appears to have been modified by flow over high-altitude mountains in northeast Colorado. These funnel clouds are contrasted with others that have been documented, including those pendant from high-based cumulus clouds in the plains of the United States. It is suggested that the mountain funnel cloud is unique in that flow over high terrain is probably responsible for its existence; other types of small funnel clouds are seen both over elevated, mountainous terrain and over flat terrain at lower elevations. 1. Introduction which the benign funnel clouds occur so that if they are observed, severe weather warnings are not issued. Fur- Bluestein (1994) and others (e.g., Doswell 1985, p. thermore, the small funnel clouds are of interest in their 107; McCaul and Blanchard 1990) have documented, in own right because their dynamics are not well under- the plains of the United States, small funnel clouds pen- stood, and they have not been discussed in the litera- dant from convective clouds whose updrafts appear to ture to the much greater extent that the dynamics of be rooted above the boundary layer. Above many of tornadoes have (e.g., Davies-Jones 1986). -
Chapter 7: Stability and Cloud Development
Chapter 7: Stability and Cloud Development A parcel of air: Air inside can freely expand or contract, but heat and air molecules do not cross boundary. A rising parcel of air expands because the air pressure falls with elevation. This expansion causes cooling: (Adiabatic cooling) V V V-2v V v Wall Stationary Wall Moving Away An air molecule that strikes an expanding wall will lose speed on bouncing off wall (temperature of air will fall) V V+2v v Wall Moving Toward A falling parcel of air contracts because it encounters higher pressure. This falling air heats up because of compression. Stability: If rising air cools more quickly due to expansion than the environmental lapse rate, it will be denser than its surroundings and tend to fall back down. 10°C Definitions: Dry adiabatic rate = 1000 m 10°C Moist adiabatic rate : smaller than because of release of latent heat during 1000 m condensation (use 6° C per 1000m for average) Rising air that cools past dew point will not cool as quickly because of latent heat of condensation. Same compensating effect for saturated, falling air : evaporative cooling from water droplets evaporating reduces heating due to compression. Summary: Rising air expands & cools Falling air contracts & warms 10°C Unsaturated air cools as it rises at the dry adiabatic rate (~ ) 1000 m 6°C Saturated air cools at a lower rate, ~ , because condensing water vapor heats air. 1000 m This is moist adiabatic rate. Environmental lapse rate is rate that air temperature falls as you go up in altitude in the troposphere. -
Hurricane Response Annex Overview Introduction
TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION I – HURICANE RESPONSE ANNEX OVERVIEW ............................................................... 2 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................. 3 PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS ................................................................................................................................... 4 COMMUNITY IMPACTS ........................................................................................................................................ 4 SECTION II – CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS ........................................................................................ 5 DEFINING THE HAZARD ...................................................................................................................................... 5 Tropical Cyclones ..................................................................................................................................................... 5 TIMELINES ........................................................................................................................................................... 6 HURRICANE SEASON ...................................................................................................................................... 6 RESPONDER REENTRY HOUR ......................................................................................................................... 7 SECTION III – ROLES & RESPONSIBILITIES -
Climatic Information of Western Sahel F
Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Clim. Past Discuss., 10, 3877–3900, 2014 www.clim-past-discuss.net/10/3877/2014/ doi:10.5194/cpd-10-3877-2014 CPD © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. 10, 3877–3900, 2014 This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Climate of the Past (CP). Climatic information Please refer to the corresponding final paper in CP if available. of Western Sahel V. Millán and Climatic information of Western Sahel F. S. Rodrigo (1535–1793 AD) in original documentary sources Title Page Abstract Introduction V. Millán and F. S. Rodrigo Conclusions References Department of Applied Physics, University of Almería, Carretera de San Urbano, s/n, 04120, Almería, Spain Tables Figures Received: 11 September 2014 – Accepted: 12 September 2014 – Published: 26 September J I 2014 Correspondence to: F. S. Rodrigo ([email protected]) J I Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. Back Close Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion 3877 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Abstract CPD The Sahel is the semi-arid transition zone between arid Sahara and humid tropical Africa, extending approximately 10–20◦ N from Mauritania in the West to Sudan in the 10, 3877–3900, 2014 East. The African continent, one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change, 5 is subject to frequent droughts and famine. One climate challenge research is to iso- Climatic information late those aspects of climate variability that are natural from those that are related of Western Sahel to human influences. -
Extratropical Cyclones and Anticyclones
© Jones & Bartlett Learning, LLC. NOT FOR SALE OR DISTRIBUTION Courtesy of Jeff Schmaltz, the MODIS Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC/NASA Extratropical Cyclones 10 and Anticyclones CHAPTER OUTLINE INTRODUCTION A TIME AND PLACE OF TRAGEDY A LiFE CYCLE OF GROWTH AND DEATH DAY 1: BIRTH OF AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ■■ Typical Extratropical Cyclone Paths DaY 2: WiTH THE FI TZ ■■ Portrait of the Cyclone as a Young Adult ■■ Cyclones and Fronts: On the Ground ■■ Cyclones and Fronts: In the Sky ■■ Back with the Fitz: A Fateful Course Correction ■■ Cyclones and Jet Streams 298 9781284027372_CH10_0298.indd 298 8/10/13 5:00 PM © Jones & Bartlett Learning, LLC. NOT FOR SALE OR DISTRIBUTION Introduction 299 DaY 3: THE MaTURE CYCLONE ■■ Bittersweet Badge of Adulthood: The Occlusion Process ■■ Hurricane West Wind ■■ One of the Worst . ■■ “Nosedive” DaY 4 (AND BEYOND): DEATH ■■ The Cyclone ■■ The Fitzgerald ■■ The Sailors THE EXTRATROPICAL ANTICYCLONE HIGH PRESSURE, HiGH HEAT: THE DEADLY EUROPEAN HEAT WaVE OF 2003 PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER ■■ Summary ■■ Key Terms ■■ Review Questions ■■ Observation Activities AFTER COMPLETING THIS CHAPTER, YOU SHOULD BE ABLE TO: • Describe the different life-cycle stages in the Norwegian model of the extratropical cyclone, identifying the stages when the cyclone possesses cold, warm, and occluded fronts and life-threatening conditions • Explain the relationship between a surface cyclone and winds at the jet-stream level and how the two interact to intensify the cyclone • Differentiate between extratropical cyclones and anticyclones in terms of their birthplaces, life cycles, relationships to air masses and jet-stream winds, threats to life and property, and their appearance on satellite images INTRODUCTION What do you see in the diagram to the right: a vase or two faces? This classic psychology experiment exploits our amazing ability to recognize visual patterns. -
NWS Unified Surface Analysis Manual
Unified Surface Analysis Manual Weather Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Honolulu Forecast Office November 21, 2013 Table of Contents Chapter 1: Surface Analysis – Its History at the Analysis Centers…………….3 Chapter 2: Datasets available for creation of the Unified Analysis………...…..5 Chapter 3: The Unified Surface Analysis and related features.……….……….19 Chapter 4: Creation/Merging of the Unified Surface Analysis………….……..24 Chapter 5: Bibliography………………………………………………….…….30 Appendix A: Unified Graphics Legend showing Ocean Center symbols.….…33 2 Chapter 1: Surface Analysis – Its History at the Analysis Centers 1. INTRODUCTION Since 1942, surface analyses produced by several different offices within the U.S. Weather Bureau (USWB) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) National Weather Service (NWS) were generally based on the Norwegian Cyclone Model (Bjerknes 1919) over land, and in recent decades, the Shapiro-Keyser Model over the mid-latitudes of the ocean. The graphic below shows a typical evolution according to both models of cyclone development. Conceptual models of cyclone evolution showing lower-tropospheric (e.g., 850-hPa) geopotential height and fronts (top), and lower-tropospheric potential temperature (bottom). (a) Norwegian cyclone model: (I) incipient frontal cyclone, (II) and (III) narrowing warm sector, (IV) occlusion; (b) Shapiro–Keyser cyclone model: (I) incipient frontal cyclone, (II) frontal fracture, (III) frontal T-bone and bent-back front, (IV) frontal T-bone and warm seclusion. Panel (b) is adapted from Shapiro and Keyser (1990) , their FIG. 10.27 ) to enhance the zonal elongation of the cyclone and fronts and to reflect the continued existence of the frontal T-bone in stage IV.