Chapter 8 Atmospheric Statics and Stability
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A Local Large Hail Probability Equation for Columbia, Sc
EASTERN REGION TECHNICAL ATTACHMENT NO. 98-6 AUGUST, 1998 A LOCAL LARGE HAIL PROBABILITY EQUATION FOR COLUMBIA, SC Mark DeLisi NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office West Columbia, SC Editor’s Note: The author’s current affiliation is NWSFO Mt. Holly, NJ. 1. INTRODUCTION Skew-T/Hodograph Analysis and Research Program, or SHARP (Hart and Korotky Billet et al. (1997) derived a successful 1991). The dependent variable, hail diameter probability of large hail (diameter greater than or the absence of hail, was derived from or equal to 0.75 inch) equation as an aid in spotter reports for the CAE warning area from National Weather Service (NWS) severe May, 1995 through September, 1996. There thunderstorm warning operations. Hail of that were 136 cases used to develop the regression diameter or larger requires a severe equation. thunderstorm warning be issued by NWS offices. Shortly thereafter, a Weather The LPLH was verified using 69 spotter Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR- reports from the period September, 1996 88D) radar probability of severe hail (POSH) through September, 1997. The POSH was became available for warning operations (Witt verified as well. Verification statistics et al. 1998). This study recreates the steps included the Brier score and the chi-square taken in Billet et al. (1997) to derive a local (32) statistic. probability of large hail equation (LPLH) for the Columbia, SC National Weather Service The goal of this study was to develop an Forecast Office (CAE) warning area, and it objective method to estimate the probability assesses the utility of the LPLH relative to the of large hail for use in forecast operations. -
Soaring Weather
Chapter 16 SOARING WEATHER While horse racing may be the "Sport of Kings," of the craft depends on the weather and the skill soaring may be considered the "King of Sports." of the pilot. Forward thrust comes from gliding Soaring bears the relationship to flying that sailing downward relative to the air the same as thrust bears to power boating. Soaring has made notable is developed in a power-off glide by a conven contributions to meteorology. For example, soar tional aircraft. Therefore, to gain or maintain ing pilots have probed thunderstorms and moun altitude, the soaring pilot must rely on upward tain waves with findings that have made flying motion of the air. safer for all pilots. However, soaring is primarily To a sailplane pilot, "lift" means the rate of recreational. climb he can achieve in an up-current, while "sink" A sailplane must have auxiliary power to be denotes his rate of descent in a downdraft or in come airborne such as a winch, a ground tow, or neutral air. "Zero sink" means that upward cur a tow by a powered aircraft. Once the sailcraft is rents are just strong enough to enable him to hold airborne and the tow cable released, performance altitude but not to climb. Sailplanes are highly 171 r efficient machines; a sink rate of a mere 2 feet per second. There is no point in trying to soar until second provides an airspeed of about 40 knots, and weather conditions favor vertical speeds greater a sink rate of 6 feet per second gives an airspeed than the minimum sink rate of the aircraft. -
Chapter 7: Stability and Cloud Development
Chapter 7: Stability and Cloud Development A parcel of air: Air inside can freely expand or contract, but heat and air molecules do not cross boundary. A rising parcel of air expands because the air pressure falls with elevation. This expansion causes cooling: (Adiabatic cooling) V V V-2v V v Wall Stationary Wall Moving Away An air molecule that strikes an expanding wall will lose speed on bouncing off wall (temperature of air will fall) V V+2v v Wall Moving Toward A falling parcel of air contracts because it encounters higher pressure. This falling air heats up because of compression. Stability: If rising air cools more quickly due to expansion than the environmental lapse rate, it will be denser than its surroundings and tend to fall back down. 10°C Definitions: Dry adiabatic rate = 1000 m 10°C Moist adiabatic rate : smaller than because of release of latent heat during 1000 m condensation (use 6° C per 1000m for average) Rising air that cools past dew point will not cool as quickly because of latent heat of condensation. Same compensating effect for saturated, falling air : evaporative cooling from water droplets evaporating reduces heating due to compression. Summary: Rising air expands & cools Falling air contracts & warms 10°C Unsaturated air cools as it rises at the dry adiabatic rate (~ ) 1000 m 6°C Saturated air cools at a lower rate, ~ , because condensing water vapor heats air. 1000 m This is moist adiabatic rate. Environmental lapse rate is rate that air temperature falls as you go up in altitude in the troposphere. -
Use Style: Paper Title
Environmental Conditions Producing Thunderstorms with Anomalous Vertical Polarity of Charge Structure Donald R. MacGorman Alexander J. Eddy NOAA/Nat’l Severe Storms Laboratory & Cooperative Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies Studies Affiliation/ Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR Norman, Oklahoma, USA Norman, Oklahoma, USA [email protected] Earle Williams Cameron R. Homeyer Massachusetts Insitute of Technology School of Meteorology, Univ. of Oklhaoma Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA Norman, Oklahoma, USA Abstract—+CG flashes typically comprise an unusually large Tessendorf et al. 2007, Weiss et al. 2008, Fleenor et al. 2009, fraction of CG activity in thunderstorms with anomalous vertical Emersic et al. 2011; DiGangi et al. 2016). Furthermore, charge structure. We analyzed more than a decade of NLDN previous studies have suggested that CG activity tends to be data on a 15 km x 15 km x 15 min grid spanning the contiguous delayed tens of minutes longer in these anomalous storms than United States, to identify storm cells in which +CG flashes in most storms elsewhere (MacGorman et al. 2011). constituted a large fraction of CG activity, as a proxy for thunderstorms with anomalous vertical charge structure, and For this study, we analyzed more than a decade of CG data storm cells with very low percentages of +CG lightning, as a from the National Lightning Detection Network throughout the proxy for thunderstorms with normal-polarity distributions. In contiguous United States to identify storm cells in which +CG each of seven regions, we used North American Regional flashes constituted a large fraction of CG activity, as a proxy Reanalysis data to compare the environments of anomalous for storms with anomalous vertical charge structure. -
Comparison Between Observed Convective Cloud-Base Heights and Lifting Condensation Level for Two Different Lifted Parcels
AUGUST 2002 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE 885 Comparison between Observed Convective Cloud-Base Heights and Lifting Condensation Level for Two Different Lifted Parcels JEFFREY P. C RAVEN AND RYAN E. JEWELL NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma HAROLD E. BROOKS NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma 6 January 2002 and 16 April 2002 ABSTRACT Approximately 400 Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) observations of convective cloud-base heights at 2300 UTC were collected from April through August of 2001. These observations were compared with lifting condensation level (LCL) heights above ground level determined by 0000 UTC rawinsonde soundings from collocated upper-air sites. The LCL heights were calculated using both surface-based parcels (SBLCL) and mean-layer parcels (MLLCLÐusing mean temperature and dewpoint in lowest 100 hPa). The results show that the mean error for the MLLCL heights was substantially less than for SBLCL heights, with SBLCL heights consistently lower than observed cloud bases. These ®ndings suggest that the mean-layer parcel is likely more representative of the actual parcel associated with convective cloud development, which has implications for calculations of thermodynamic parameters such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition. In addition, the median value of surface-based CAPE (SBCAPE) was more than 2 times that of the mean-layer CAPE (MLCAPE). Thus, caution is advised when considering surface-based thermodynamic indices, despite the assumed presence of a well-mixed afternoon boundary layer. 1. Introduction dry-adiabatic temperature pro®le (constant potential The lifting condensation level (LCL) has long been temperature in the mixed layer) and a moisture pro®le used to estimate boundary layer cloud heights (e.g., described by a constant mixing ratio. -
MSE3 Ch14 Thunderstorms
Chapter 14 Copyright © 2011, 2015 by Roland Stull. Meteorology for Scientists and Engineers, 3rd Ed. thunderstorms Contents Thunderstorms are among the most violent and difficult-to-predict weath- Thunderstorm Characteristics 481 er elements. Yet, thunderstorms can be Appearance 482 14 studied. They can be probed with radar and air- Clouds Associated with Thunderstorms 482 craft, and simulated in a laboratory or by computer. Cells & Evolution 484 They form in the air, and must obey the laws of fluid Thunderstorm Types & Organization 486 mechanics and thermodynamics. Basic Storms 486 Thunderstorms are also beautiful and majestic. Mesoscale Convective Systems 488 Supercell Thunderstorms 492 In thunderstorms, aesthetics and science merge, making them fascinating to study and chase. Thunderstorm Formation 496 Convective Conditions 496 Thunderstorm characteristics, formation, and Key Altitudes 496 forecasting are covered in this chapter. The next chapter covers thunderstorm hazards including High Humidity in the ABL 499 hail, gust fronts, lightning, and tornadoes. Instability, CAPE & Updrafts 503 CAPE 503 Updraft Velocity 508 Wind Shear in the Environment 509 Hodograph Basics 510 thunderstorm CharaCteristiCs Using Hodographs 514 Shear Across a Single Layer 514 Thunderstorms are convective clouds Mean Wind Shear Vector 514 with large vertical extent, often with tops near the Total Shear Magnitude 515 tropopause and bases near the top of the boundary Mean Environmental Wind (Normal Storm Mo- layer. Their official name is cumulonimbus (see tion) 516 the Clouds Chapter), for which the abbreviation is Supercell Storm Motion 518 Bulk Richardson Number 521 Cb. On weather maps the symbol represents thunderstorms, with a dot •, asterisk , or triangle Triggering vs. Convective Inhibition 522 * ∆ drawn just above the top of the symbol to indicate Convective Inhibition (CIN) 523 Trigger Mechanisms 525 rain, snow, or hail, respectively. -
Atmospheric Stability Atmospheric Lapse Rate
ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATE The atmospheric lapse rate ( ) refers to the change of an atmospheric variable with a change of altitude, the variable being temperature unless specified otherwise (such as pressure, density or humidity). While usually applied to Earth's atmosphere, the concept of lapse rate can be extended to atmospheres (if any) that exist on other planets. Lapse rates are usually expressed as the amount of temperature change associated with a specified amount of altitude change, such as 9.8 °Kelvin (K) per kilometer, 0.0098 °K per meter or the equivalent 5.4 °F per 1000 feet. If the atmospheric air cools with increasing altitude, the lapse rate may be expressed as a negative number. If the air heats with increasing altitude, the lapse rate may be expressed as a positive number. Understanding of lapse rates is important in micro-scale air pollution dispersion analysis, as well as urban noise pollution modeling, forest fire-fighting and certain aviation applications. The lapse rate is most often denoted by the Greek capital letter Gamma ( or Γ ) but not always. For example, the U.S. Standard Atmosphere uses L to denote lapse rates. A few others use the Greek lower case letter gamma ( ). Types of lapse rates There are three types of lapse rates that are used to express the rate of temperature change with a change in altitude, namely the dry adiabatic lapse rate, the wet adiabatic lapse rate and the environmental lapse rate. Dry adiabatic lapse rate Since the atmospheric pressure decreases with altitude, the volume of an air parcel expands as it rises. -
ESSENTIALS of METEOROLOGY (7Th Ed.) GLOSSARY
ESSENTIALS OF METEOROLOGY (7th ed.) GLOSSARY Chapter 1 Aerosols Tiny suspended solid particles (dust, smoke, etc.) or liquid droplets that enter the atmosphere from either natural or human (anthropogenic) sources, such as the burning of fossil fuels. Sulfur-containing fossil fuels, such as coal, produce sulfate aerosols. Air density The ratio of the mass of a substance to the volume occupied by it. Air density is usually expressed as g/cm3 or kg/m3. Also See Density. Air pressure The pressure exerted by the mass of air above a given point, usually expressed in millibars (mb), inches of (atmospheric mercury (Hg) or in hectopascals (hPa). pressure) Atmosphere The envelope of gases that surround a planet and are held to it by the planet's gravitational attraction. The earth's atmosphere is mainly nitrogen and oxygen. Carbon dioxide (CO2) A colorless, odorless gas whose concentration is about 0.039 percent (390 ppm) in a volume of air near sea level. It is a selective absorber of infrared radiation and, consequently, it is important in the earth's atmospheric greenhouse effect. Solid CO2 is called dry ice. Climate The accumulation of daily and seasonal weather events over a long period of time. Front The transition zone between two distinct air masses. Hurricane A tropical cyclone having winds in excess of 64 knots (74 mi/hr). Ionosphere An electrified region of the upper atmosphere where fairly large concentrations of ions and free electrons exist. Lapse rate The rate at which an atmospheric variable (usually temperature) decreases with height. (See Environmental lapse rate.) Mesosphere The atmospheric layer between the stratosphere and the thermosphere. -
1 Lecture Note Packet #4: Thunderstorms and Tornadoes I
Lecture Note Packet #4: Thunderstorms and Tornadoes I. Introduction A. We have a tendency to think specifically of tornadoes when thinking of extreme weather associated with thunderstorms. With good reason....tornadoes are probably the most ³spectacular´ of all weather phenomena and we will focus our discussion of ³convective weather´ on these features and the extreme thunderstorms from which they originate (supercell thunderstorms). However, it is important to discuss the more general topic of thunderstorms since they are important to other types of extreme weather. For example, in addition to tornadoes, they can produce damaging wind and hail. Because of the very vigorous ascent or updrafts that are the important component of thunderstorms they are usually associated with very heavy rain and sometimes flooding. ³Convective´ precipitation (thunderstorms) are the predominant mode of precipitation in the tropics (ITCZ) where flooding is the most important weather issue. In addition, flooding in the United States is frequently associated with clusters of thunderstorms called mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). B. What is a thunderstorm? (Fig. 4.1) 1. These structures are of a smaller scale than the ECs that we have been discussing although when they occur in middle latitudes they are frequently part of a larger EC a. Thunderstorms are on the order of tens of kilometers whereas ECs are usually thousands of kilometers 2. They are designated as ³convective´ systems a. Convection is a mode of heat transfer from low levels to upper levels by the rising motion of warmer air parcels (and the sinking motion of cooler air parcels) b. This process occurs, and these storms develop, due to an ³unstable environment´ (much warmer at the surface than at upper levels) 1. -
DEPARTMENT of GEOSCIENCES Name______San Francisco State University May 7, 2013 Spring 2009
DEPARTMENT OF GEOSCIENCES Name_____________ San Francisco State University May 7, 2013 Spring 2009 Monteverdi Metr 201 Quiz #4 100 pts. A. Definitions. (3 points each for a total of 15 points in this section). (a) Convective Condensation Level --The elevation at which a lofted surface parcel heated to its Convective Temperature will be saturated and above which will be warmer than the surrounding air at the same elevation. (b) Convective Temperature --The surface temperature that must be met or exceeded in order to convert an absolutely stable sounding to an absolutely unstable sounding (because of elimination, usually, of the elevated inversion characteristic of the Loaded Gun Sounding). (c) Lifted Index -- the difference in temperature (in C or K) between the surrounding air and the parcel ascent curve at 500 mb. (d) wave cyclone -- a cyclone in which a frontal system is centered in a wave-like configuration, normally with a cold front on the west and a warm front on the east. (e) conditionally unstable sounding (conceptual definition) –a sounding for which the parcel ascent curve shows an LFC not at the ground, implying that the sounding is unstable only on the condition that a surface parcel is force lofted to the LFC. B. Units. (2 pts each for a total of 8 pts) Provide the units used conventionally for the following: θ ____ Ko * o o Td ______C ___or F ___________ PGA -2 ( )z ______m s _______________** w ____ m s-1_____________*** *θ = Theta = Potential Temperature **PGA = Pressure Gradient Acceleration *** At Equilibrium Level of Severe Thunderstorms € 1 C. Sounding (3 pts each for a total of 27 points in this section). -
CHAPTER 3 Transport and Dispersion of Air Pollution
CHAPTER 3 Transport and Dispersion of Air Pollution Lesson Goal Demonstrate an understanding of the meteorological factors that influence wind and turbulence, the relationship of air current stability, and the effect of each of these factors on air pollution transport and dispersion; understand the role of topography and its influence on air pollution, by successfully completing the review questions at the end of the chapter. Lesson Objectives 1. Describe the various methods of air pollution transport and dispersion. 2. Explain how dispersion modeling is used in Air Quality Management (AQM). 3. Identify the four major meteorological factors that affect pollution dispersion. 4. Identify three types of atmospheric stability. 5. Distinguish between two types of turbulence and indicate the cause of each. 6. Identify the four types of topographical features that commonly affect pollutant dispersion. Recommended Reading: Godish, Thad, “The Atmosphere,” “Atmospheric Pollutants,” “Dispersion,” and “Atmospheric Effects,” Air Quality, 3rd Edition, New York: Lewis, 1997, pp. 1-22, 23-70, 71-92, and 93-136. Transport and Dispersion of Air Pollution References Bowne, N.E., “Atmospheric Dispersion,” S. Calvert and H. Englund (Eds.), Handbook of Air Pollution Technology, New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1984, pp. 859-893. Briggs, G.A. Plume Rise, Washington, D.C.: AEC Critical Review Series, 1969. Byers, H.R., General Meteorology, New York: McGraw-Hill Publishers, 1956. Dobbins, R.A., Atmospheric Motion and Air Pollution, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1979. Donn, W.L., Meteorology, New York: McGraw-Hill Publishers, 1975. Godish, Thad, Air Quality, New York: Academic Press, 1997, p. 72. Hewson, E. Wendell, “Meteorological Measurements,” A.C. -
Severe Weather Forecasting Tip Sheet: WFO Louisville
Severe Weather Forecasting Tip Sheet: WFO Louisville Vertical Wind Shear & SRH Tornadic Supercells 0-6 km bulk shear > 40 kts – supercells Unstable warm sector air mass, with well-defined warm and cold fronts (i.e., strong extratropical cyclone) 0-6 km bulk shear 20-35 kts – organized multicells Strong mid and upper-level jet observed to dive southward into upper-level shortwave trough, then 0-6 km bulk shear < 10-20 kts – disorganized multicells rapidly exit the trough and cross into the warm sector air mass. 0-8 km bulk shear > 52 kts – long-lived supercells Pronounced upper-level divergence occurs on the nose and exit region of the jet. 0-3 km bulk shear > 30-40 kts – bowing thunderstorms A low-level jet forms in response to upper-level jet, which increases northward flux of moisture. SRH Intense northwest-southwest upper-level flow/strong southerly low-level flow creates a wind profile which 0-3 km SRH > 150 m2 s-2 = updraft rotation becomes more likely 2 -2 is very conducive for supercell development. Storms often exhibit rapid development along cold front, 0-3 km SRH > 300-400 m s = rotating updrafts and supercell development likely dryline, or pre-frontal convergence axis, and then move east into warm sector. BOTH 2 -2 Most intense tornadic supercells often occur in close proximity to where upper-level jet intersects low- 0-6 km shear < 35 kts with 0-3 km SRH > 150 m s – brief rotation but not persistent level jet, although tornadic supercells can occur north and south of upper jet as well.