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A Real-Time System to Estimate Weather Conditions at High Resolution
12.1 A Real-Time System to Estimate Weather Conditions at High Resolution Peter P. Neilley1 Weather Services International, Inc. Andover, MA 01810 And Bruce L. Rose The Weather Channel Atlanta, GA the earth’s surface (the so-called current 1. Introduction1 conditions). b) We do not necessarily produce weather The purpose of this paper is to describe an observations on a regular grid, but at an operational system used to estimate current irregular set of arbitrary locations or points weather conditions at arbitrary places in real- that are relevant to the consumers of the time. The system, known as High Resolution information. Assimilation of Data (or HiRAD), is designed to generate synthetic weather observations in a c) In addition to producing quantitative manner equivalent in scope, timeliness and observational elements (e.g. temperature, quality to a arbitrarily dense physical observing pressure and wind speed) our system network. Our approach is, first, to collect produces common, descriptive terminology information from a variety of relevant sources of the sensible weather such as including gridded analyses, traditional surface “Thundershowers”, “Patchy Fog”, and weather reports, radar, satellite and lightning “Snow Flurries”. observations. Then we continuously synthesize these data into weather condition estimates at d) We do not strive to produce a state of the prescribed locations. An operational system atmosphere optimized for fidelity with based on this approach has been built and is Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) commercially deployed in the United States. models. Instead, the system is optimized to produce the most accurate estimate of the In most regards, our approach is analogous to observed state at the surface that can be modern data assimilation techniques. -
WHAT IS METEOROLOGY? Meteorology Is the Science of Weather
WHAT IS METEOROLOGY? Meteorology is the science of weather. It is essentially an inter-disciplinary science because the atmosphere, land and ocean constitute an integrated system. The three basic aspects of meteorology are observation, understanding and prediction of weather. There are many kinds of routine meteorological observations. Some of them are made with simple instruments like the thermometer for measuring temperature or the anemometer for recording wind speed. The observing techniques have become increasingly complex in recent years and satellites have now made it possible to monitor the weather globally. Countries around the world exchange the weather observations through fast telecommunications channels. These are plotted on weather charts and analysed by professional meteorologists at forecasting centres. Weather forecasts are then made with the help of modern computers and supercomputers. Weather information and forecasts are of vital importance to many activities like agriculture, aviation, shipping, fisheries, tourism, defence, industrial projects, water management and disaster mitigation. Recent advances in satellite and computer technology have led to significant progress in meteorology. Our knowledge of the weather is, however, still incomplete. WHAT IS SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGY? Weather observations, taken on the ground or on ships, and in the upper atmosphere with the help of balloon soundings, represent the state of the atmosphere at a given time. When the data are plotted on a weather map, we get a synoptic view of the worlds weather. Hence day-to-day analysis and forecasting of weather has come to be known as synoptic meteorology. It is the study of the movement of low pressure areas, air masses, fronts, and other weather systems like depressions and tropical cyclones. -
Weather Forecasting and to the Measuring Weather Data, Instruments, and Science That Make Forecasting Accurate
Delta Science Reader WWeathereather ForecastingForecasting Delta Science Readers are nonfiction student books that provide science background and support the experiences of hands-on activities. Every Delta Science Reader has three main sections: Think About . , People in Science, and Did You Know? Be sure to preview the reader Overview Chart on page 4, the reader itself, and the teaching suggestions on the following pages. This information will help you determine how to plan your schedule for reader selections and activity sessions. Reading for information is a key literacy skill. Use the following ideas as appropriate for your teaching style and the needs of your students. The After Reading section includes an assessment and writing links. VERVIEW Students will O understand the main factors that cause The Delta Science Reader Weather weather and produce weather changes Forecasting introduces students to the learn about the various instruments for world of weather forecasting and to the measuring weather data, instruments, and science that make forecasting accurate. Students will explore identify some of the elements of severe the six main weather factors—temperature, weather, and distinguish between weather air pressure, wind, humidity, precipitation, and climate and cloudiness—as well as discover the discuss the function of nonfiction text difference between weather and climate. elements such as the table of contents, The book also contains a biographical headings, tables, captions, and glossary sketch of tornado expert Tetsuya Theodore Fujita and information about two other kinds interpret photographs and graphics— of weather scientists: climatologists and diagrams, illustrations, weather maps— hurricane hunters. Students will find out to answer questions how a weather satellite works and how complete a KWL chart to track new different types of winds get their names. -
Fire W Eather
Fire Weather Fire Weather Fire weather depends on a combination of wildland fuels and surface weather conditions. Dead and live fuels are assessed weekly from a satellite that determines the greenness of the landscape. Surface weather conditions are monitored every 5-minutes from the Oklahoma Mesonet. This fire weather help page highlights the surface weather ingredients to monitor before wildfires and also includes several products to monitor once wildfires are underway. Fire Weather Ingredients: WRAP While the presence of wildland fuels is one necessary component for wildfires, weather conditions ultimately dictate whether or not a day is primed for wildfires to occur. There are four key fire weather ingredients and they include: high Winds, low Relative humidity, high Air temperature, and no/minimal recent Precipitation (WRAP). High Winds are the second most critical weather ingredient for wildfires. In general, winds of 20 mph or greater 20+ mph winds increase spot fires and make for most of the containment considerably more difficult. state Low Relative humidity is the most 30-40+ critical weather ingredient for wildfires mph winds and is most common in the afternoon when the air temperature is at its warmest. When relative humidity is at or below 20% extreme fire behavior can result and spot fires become freQuent. Watch out for areas of 20% or below relative humidity and 20 mph or higher winds à 20/20 rule! Extremely low relative humidity Warm Air temperatures are another values key weather ingredient for wildfires as warming can lower the relative humidity, reduce moisture for smaller dead fuels, and bring fuels closer to their ignition point. -
Weather Observations
Operational Weather Analysis … www.wxonline.info Chapter 2 Weather Observations Weather observations are the basic ingredients of weather analysis. These observations define the current state of the atmosphere, serve as the basis for isoline patterns, and provide a means for determining the physical processes that occur in the atmosphere. A working knowledge of the observation process is an important part of weather analysis. Source-Based Observation Classification Weather parameters are determined directly by human observation, by instruments, or by a combination of both. Human-based Parameters : Traditionally the human eye has been the source of various weather parameters. For example, the amount of cloud that covers the sky, the type of precipitation, or horizontal visibility, has been based on human observation. Instrument-based Parameters : Numerous instruments have been developed over the years to sense a variety of weather parameters. Some of these instruments directly observe a particular weather parameter at the location of the instrument. The measurement of air temperature by a thermometer is an excellent example of a direct measurement. Other instruments observe data remotely. These instruments either passively sense radiation coming from a location or actively send radiation into an area and interpret the radiation returned to the instrument. Satellite data for visible and infrared imagery are examples of the former while weather radar is an example of the latter. Hybrid Parameters : Hybrid observations refer to weather parameters that are read by a human observer from an instrument. This approach to collecting weather data has been a big part of the weather observing process for many years. Proper sensing of atmospheric data requires proper siting of the sensors. -
NWS Unified Surface Analysis Manual
Unified Surface Analysis Manual Weather Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Honolulu Forecast Office November 21, 2013 Table of Contents Chapter 1: Surface Analysis – Its History at the Analysis Centers…………….3 Chapter 2: Datasets available for creation of the Unified Analysis………...…..5 Chapter 3: The Unified Surface Analysis and related features.……….……….19 Chapter 4: Creation/Merging of the Unified Surface Analysis………….……..24 Chapter 5: Bibliography………………………………………………….…….30 Appendix A: Unified Graphics Legend showing Ocean Center symbols.….…33 2 Chapter 1: Surface Analysis – Its History at the Analysis Centers 1. INTRODUCTION Since 1942, surface analyses produced by several different offices within the U.S. Weather Bureau (USWB) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) National Weather Service (NWS) were generally based on the Norwegian Cyclone Model (Bjerknes 1919) over land, and in recent decades, the Shapiro-Keyser Model over the mid-latitudes of the ocean. The graphic below shows a typical evolution according to both models of cyclone development. Conceptual models of cyclone evolution showing lower-tropospheric (e.g., 850-hPa) geopotential height and fronts (top), and lower-tropospheric potential temperature (bottom). (a) Norwegian cyclone model: (I) incipient frontal cyclone, (II) and (III) narrowing warm sector, (IV) occlusion; (b) Shapiro–Keyser cyclone model: (I) incipient frontal cyclone, (II) frontal fracture, (III) frontal T-bone and bent-back front, (IV) frontal T-bone and warm seclusion. Panel (b) is adapted from Shapiro and Keyser (1990) , their FIG. 10.27 ) to enhance the zonal elongation of the cyclone and fronts and to reflect the continued existence of the frontal T-bone in stage IV. -
December 2013
Oklahoma Monthly Climate Summary DECEMBER 2013 A frigid and sometimes icy December seemed a fitting way to 1.53 inches, about a half-inch below normal, to rank as the close out the boisterous weather of 2013. Preliminary data from 59th wettest December on record. That total is possibly an the Oklahoma Mesonet ranked the month as the 17th coolest underestimate due to the frozen precipitation, although the December on record at nearly 4 degrees below normal. Records moisture pattern across various parts of the state was quite of this type for Oklahoma date back to 1895. The statewide clear. Far southeastern Oklahoma received from 3-5 inches average temperature as recorded by the Mesonet was 35.2 during the month while western areas of the state received degrees. As chilly as it seemed, however, that mark provided less than a half-inch, in general. little threat to 1983’s record cold of 25.8 degrees, but also far cooler than 2012’s 42.1 degrees. There were two significant The cold December propelled 2013’s statewide average winter storms during December, each creating headaches for annual temperature to a mark of 58.9 degrees, 0.8 degrees travelers and power utility companies. The first storm struck on below normal and the 27th coolest calendar year on record for December 5-6 in two separate waves and brought freezing rain, the state. That mark stands in stark contrast to 2012’s record sleet and snow across the state. Significant snow totals of 5-6 warm year of 63.1 degrees. -
Types of Fronts Stationary Front a Front That Is Not Moving
Types of Fronts Stationary front A front that is not moving. Types of Fronts Cold front is a leading edge of colder air that is replacing warmer air. Types of Fronts Warm front is a leading edge of warmer air that is replacing cooler air. Types of Fronts Occluded front: When a cold front catches up to a warm front. Types of Fronts Dry Line Separates a moist air mass from a dry air mass. A.Cold Front is a transition zone from warm air to cold air. A cold front is defined as the transition zone where a cold air mass is replacing a warmer air mass. Cold fronts generally move from northwest to southeast. The air behind a cold front is noticeably colder and drier than the air ahead of it. When a cold front passes through, temperatures can drop more than 15 degrees within the first hour. The station east of the front reported a temperature of 55 degrees Fahrenheit while a short distance behind the front, the temperature decreased to 38 degrees. An abrupt temperature change over a short distance is a good indicator that a front is located somewhere in between. B. Warm Front. • A transition zone from cold air to warm air. • A warm front is defined as the transition zone where a warm air mass is replacing a cold air mass. Warm fronts generally move from southwest to northeast . The air behind a warm front is warmer and more moist than the air ahead of it. When a warm front passes through, the air becomes noticeably warmer and more humid than it was before. -
ESSENTIALS of METEOROLOGY (7Th Ed.) GLOSSARY
ESSENTIALS OF METEOROLOGY (7th ed.) GLOSSARY Chapter 1 Aerosols Tiny suspended solid particles (dust, smoke, etc.) or liquid droplets that enter the atmosphere from either natural or human (anthropogenic) sources, such as the burning of fossil fuels. Sulfur-containing fossil fuels, such as coal, produce sulfate aerosols. Air density The ratio of the mass of a substance to the volume occupied by it. Air density is usually expressed as g/cm3 or kg/m3. Also See Density. Air pressure The pressure exerted by the mass of air above a given point, usually expressed in millibars (mb), inches of (atmospheric mercury (Hg) or in hectopascals (hPa). pressure) Atmosphere The envelope of gases that surround a planet and are held to it by the planet's gravitational attraction. The earth's atmosphere is mainly nitrogen and oxygen. Carbon dioxide (CO2) A colorless, odorless gas whose concentration is about 0.039 percent (390 ppm) in a volume of air near sea level. It is a selective absorber of infrared radiation and, consequently, it is important in the earth's atmospheric greenhouse effect. Solid CO2 is called dry ice. Climate The accumulation of daily and seasonal weather events over a long period of time. Front The transition zone between two distinct air masses. Hurricane A tropical cyclone having winds in excess of 64 knots (74 mi/hr). Ionosphere An electrified region of the upper atmosphere where fairly large concentrations of ions and free electrons exist. Lapse rate The rate at which an atmospheric variable (usually temperature) decreases with height. (See Environmental lapse rate.) Mesosphere The atmospheric layer between the stratosphere and the thermosphere. -
Surface Station Model (U.S.)
Surface Station Model (U.S.) Notes: Pressure Leading 10 or 9 is not plotted for surface pressure Greater than 500 = 950 to 999 mb Less than 500 = 1000 to 1050 mb 988 Æ 998.8 mb 200 Æ 1020.0 mb Sky Cover, Weather Symbols on a Surface Station Model Wind Speed How to read: Half barb = 5 knots Full barb = 10 knots Flag = 50 knots 1 knot = 1 nautical mile per hour = 1.15 mph = 65 knots The direction of the Wind direction barb reflects which way the wind is coming from NORTHERLY From the north 360° 270° 90° 180° WESTERLY EASTERLY From the west From the east SOUTHERLY From the south Four types of fronts COLD FRONT: Cold air overtakes warm air. B to C WARM FRONT: Warm air overtakes cold air. C to D OCCLUDED FRONT: Cold air catches up to the warm front. C to Low pressure center STATIONARY FRONT: No movement of air masses. A to B Fronts and Extratropical Cyclones Feb. 24, 2007 Case In mid-latitudes, fronts are part of the structure of extratropical cyclones. Extratropical cyclones form because of the horizontal temperature gradient and are part of the general circulation—helping to transport energy from equator to pole. Type of weather and air masses in relation to fronts: Feb. 24, 2007 case mPmP cPcP mTmT Characteristics of a front 1. Sharp temperature changes over a short distance 2. Changes in moisture content 3. Wind shifts 4. A lowering of surface pressure, or pressure trough 5. Clouds and precipitation We’ll see how these characteristics manifest themselves for fronts in North America using the example from Feb. -
You Are a Meterologist!
YOU ARE A METEROLOGIST! ★A meteorologist is a scientist who studies the atmosphere to forecast weather in a given area. ASSIGNMENT: You have been hired by the Weather Channel as a meteorologist to forecast weather in the United States. Since the Weather Channel provides forecasts for all over the country, your first assignment with them is to forecast four different areas of the United States using your knowledge about air masses and fronts. TASK: 1.) Examine the map of the United States and locate the four cities named on your data table. (Use an atlas to help you find these places.) 2.) After locating the cities, identify and describe the fronts heading towards each city and the air mass that follows it. (Use your reference sheet to help recall types of air mass: continental polar, continental tropical, maritime polar, or maritime tropical.) Record this information in the data table. 3.) For each city, predict how the incoming front will change the weather (temperature, air pressure, storms in that area.) Record your thinking in the data table. 4.) Select one city and write a paragraph about the anticipated weather for that area. Be sure to include data from the table to explain your thinking and forecast. DATA TABLE-FORECASTING WEATHER IN THE UNITED STATES INCOMING INCOMING CITY, STATE FRONT AIR MASS EXPLAIN HOW THIS FRONT MIGHT CHANGE THE IN THE UNITED (Warm Front How do you know? WEATHER AT THIS AREA? STATES or Cold Front) (What’s your evidence from the map?) TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE WEATHER St. Louis, Missouri El Paso, Texas Atlanta, Georgia Minneapolis Minnesota ★MAKE AN INFERENCE: Locate Boston, Massachusetts. -
Chapter 4: Fog
CHAPTER 4: FOG Fog is a double threat to boaters. It not only reduces visibility but also distorts sound, making collisions with obstacles – including other boats – a serious hazard. 1. Introduction Fog is a low-lying cloud that forms at or near the surface of the Earth. It is made up of tiny water droplets or ice crystals suspended in the air and usually gets its moisture from a nearby body of water or the wet ground. Fog is distinguished from mist or haze only by its density. In marine forecasts, the term “fog” is used when visibility is less than one nautical mile – or approximately two kilometres. If visibility is greater than that, but is still reduced, it is considered mist or haze. It is important to note that foggy conditions are reported on land only if visibility is less than half a nautical mile (about one kilometre). So boaters may encounter fog near coastal areas even if it is not mentioned in land-based forecasts – or particularly heavy fog, if it is. Fog Caused Worst Maritime Disaster in Canadian History The worst maritime accident in Canadian history took place in dense fog in the early hours of the morning on May 29, 1914, when the Norwegian coal ship Storstadt collided with the Canadian Pacific ocean liner Empress of Ireland. More than 1,000 people died after the Liverpool-bound liner was struck in the side and sank less than 15 minutes later in the frigid waters of the St. Lawrence River near Rimouski, Quebec. The Captain of the Empress told an inquest that he had brought his ship to a halt and was waiting for the weather to clear when, to his horror, a ship emerged from the fog, bearing directly upon him from less than a ship’s length away.