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Macedonia National Public Opinion Poll

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Macedonia National Public Opinion Poll Public Opinion Poll: Residents of North Macedonia January 30 – February 10, 2020 Detailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of International Republican Institute's Center for Insights in Survey Research by Brima market research firm. • Data was collected from January 30 to February 10, 2020, through face-to-face interviews using TAPI (Tablet Assisted Personal Interviewing), in the home of the respondent by trained interviewers. • A sample of 1,222 respondents age 18 and over was surveyed. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.8 percent at the midrange of the 95 percent confidence level. The response rate was 73 percent. • The sample is nationally representative of the adult 18+ population by age, gender, region, urbanicity and ethnicity. The design is based on State Statistical Office (SSO) estimates for December 31, 2018. Estimates for ethnicity are based on the 2002 Census. • A stratified multistage probability sampling method was used, with stratification based on three stages: • Stages 1: Probability proportionate to size (PPS) into eight regions, by urbanicity and ethnicity (Macedonian/Others and Albanian). • Stage 2: Allocation of number of primary sampling units (PSUs) by municipalities within each stratum, taking municipal population size into account. • Stage 3: Random selection of actual PSUs within municipalities. • The “next birthday method” was used to select respondents, in combination with an ethnic quota. • The data was weighted for age, gender, region and ethnicity. Age, gender and regional weights correspond to the 2018 SSO estimates. The ethnicity weight factor corresponds to the 2002 Census. • Figures in charts and tables may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. All sub-group bases cited in this presentation are weighted. • This poll was conducted with support from the National Endowment for Democracy. Political Party Glossary Party Name AA: Alliance for Albanians Alternative BESA: Movement Besa DOM: Democratic Movement of Macedonia DPA: Democratic Party of Albanians DUI: Democratic Union for Integration LDP: Liberal Democratic Party The Left: Levica SDSM: Social Democratic Union of Macedonia VMRO-DPMNE: Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization – Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity 3 Political Context • Spring 2020 – North Macedonia is expected to become a full member of NATO. • April 12, 2020 – Snap parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place. • January 3, 2020 – A caretaker government which includes representatives of the opposition is elected. It is mandated for 100 days in office prior to parliamentary elections and it is responsible for organizing fair, democratic and credible elections. • October 19, 2019 – Prime Minister Zoran Zaev calls for snap parliamentary elections. • October 18, 2019 – The European Council fails to approve the start of EU accession talks with North Macedonia and Albania following rejection by France. • June 27, 2018 – Macedonia and Greece sign the Prespa Agreement, leading to a change in the country’s name to North Macedonia and resolving a 27-year dispute which was an obstacle to the country’s integration into the EU and NATO. • May 31, 2017 – An SDSM-led government takes power following 11 years of rule by VMRO-DPMNE. The largest ethnic Albanian party, DUI, is part of the SDSM-led government. Previously, DUI was part of the VMRO-DPMNE-led government. 4 Economic Outlook of the Country In general, would you say that North Macedonia is heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction? Feb-20 23% 33% 43% 1% Jul-18 37% 30% 30% 2% Aug-17 27% 31% 40% 2% Mar-17 14% 28% 56% 2% Nov-16 26% 24% 48% 3% Apr-16 20% 21% 58% 2% Jan-16 28% 24% 46% 3% Oct-15 24% 26% 48% 2% Jun-15 23% 28% 48% 1% Dec-14 29% 31% 39% 2% Sep-14 36% 24% 39% 1% May-14 39% 27% 33% 2% Feb-14 31% 26% 41% 2% Nov-12 27% 27% 44% 2% Dec-10 22% 30% 48% 1% Sep-10 19% 36% 43% 2% May-10 23% 31% 45% 2% Dec-09 31% 35% 32% 2% Sep-09 29% 40% 29% 2% Jun-09 26% 32% 40% 2% Apr-09 24% 36% 38% 3% Feb-09 25% 38% 36% 1% Dec-08 32% 33% 33% 2% Sep-08 34% 33% 31% 3% Jun-08 38% 32% 28% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Right direction Neutral Wrong direction Don't know/Refused to answer 6 What is the most important problem facing North Macedonia today? … And what is the second most important problem? (Spontaneous responses) Unemployment 19% 10% 29% The economic situation 14% 9% 23% Poverty, low standard of living* 10% 12% 22% Low or nonpayment of salary or pension 9% 9% 18% Youth emigration 9% 9% 18% Corruption 6% 9% 15% 27% corruption and crime Crime 6% 6% 12% combined The general political situation 5% 5% 10% Integration in EU 3% 1% 4% First mention Rule of law/Law and order 2% 5% 7% Second mention The name issue** 2% 1% 3% No future for the youth, employment for the youth 2% <1% 3% Pollution 2% 4% 6% Healthcare 1% 3% 4% Education 1% 2% 2% Agriculture, low prices of agricultural products 1%1% 2% Other 8% 12% 20% Don't know 2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% *Response category also includes “problems of common people” **Name issue refers to the country’s name change as part of the Prespa Agreement 7 In your opinion, did Zaev’s Government dedicate itself to solving the first most important problem North Macedonia is facing that you mentioned before?* 4% 8% Yes, completely In general, yes 28% 26% In general, no Not at all Don’t know/Refused to answer 34% *n=1,219, those who mentioned first important problem 8 In the next two years, will the economy in North Macedonia get better, get worse, or stay the same? Feb-20 24% 45% 22% 9% Jul-18 38% 32% 22% 8% Aug-17 33% 35% 23% 9% Mar-17 21% 33% 31% 15% Nov-16 24% 36% 27% 13% Apr-16 21% 32% 35% 11% Jan-16 26% 33% 32% 10% Oct-15 20% 39% 33% 9% Jun-15 19% 43% 29% 9% Dec-14 23% 43% 29% 5% Sep-14 21% 44% 29% 7% May-14 26% 40% 29% 6% Feb-14 25% 40% 30% 5% Nov-12 25% 34% 35% 6% Dec-10 28% 34% 33% 4% Sep-10 23% 36% 37% 4% May-10 29% 32% 35% 4% Dec-09 34% 30% 30% 5% Sep-09 31% 37% 28% 4% Jun-09 30% 30% 35% 5% Apr-09 31% 29% 35% 5% Feb-09 29% 30% 37% 4% Dec-08 33% 29% 31% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Get better Stay the same Get worse Don't know/Refused to answer 9 In your opinion, over the last year has unemployment…? February 2020 10% 26% 19% 30% 9% 6% July 2018 9% 23% 30% 27% 5% 7% August 2017 13% 31% 17% 29% 4% 6% March 2017 18% 26% 11% 32% 7% 6% November 2016 18% 28% 12% 25% 9% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Increased Increased The same Decreased somewhat Decreased Don't know/ a lot somewhat a lot Refused to answer 10 How is your family’s economic situation compared to one year ago? Feb-20 3% 19% 58% 14% 5%1% Jul-18 5% 15% 63% 12% 5% Aug-17 2% 14% 61% 16% 6%1% Mar-17 1% 10% 54% 23% 11% Nov-16 3% 12% 51% 20% 13% Apr-16 2% 13% 50% 21% 14% 1% Jan-16 5% 15% 45% 23% 12% Oct-15 2% 12% 52% 18% 15% Jun-15 2% 11% 51% 22% 13% 1% Dec-14 2% 13% 54% 22% 10% Sep-14 4% 12% 54% 20% 10% 1% May-14 2% 13% 53% 21% 10% Feb-14 2% 12% 51% 20% 14% 1% Nov-12 2% 11% 43% 26% 18% Dec-10 2% 12% 44% 26% 16% Sep-10 2% 10% 43% 26% 19% May-10 2% 11% 43% 26% 19% Dec-09 2% 11% 45% 26% 16% Sep-09 1% 15% 44% 26% 15% Jun-09 3% 12% 43% 26% 17% Apr-09 2% 10% 44% 26% 18% Feb-09 2% 14% 42% 25% 17% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Much better Somewhat better Same Somewhat worse Much worse Don't know/Refused to answer 11 How would you describe the current economic situation of your household? <1% 5% 11% Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad 32% 51% Don't know/Refuse to answer 12 Is your household monthly income sufficient to satisfy monthly needs? 9% 17% Yes, completely Yes, somewhat Not sufficient 35% Not at all 39% 13 Speaking personally, is your overall quality of life…? Feb-20 18% 59% 23% Jul-18 17% 59% 23% 1% Aug-17 15% 60% 24% Mar-17 9% 52% 38% Nov-16 13% 50% 37% Apr-16 13% 44% 42% 1% Jan-16 18% 45% 37% 1% Oct-15 14% 50% 36% 1% Jun-15 11% 52% 37% Dec-14 12% 53% 34% Sep-14 13% 47% 38% 1% May-14 15% 53% 32% 1% Feb-14 17% 51% 31% 1% Nov-12 13% 48% 39% 1% Dec-10 15% 47% 37% 1% Sep-10 13% 47% 40% May-10 17% 45% 38% Dec-09 14% 48% 37% Sep-09 16% 50% 33% 1% Jun-09 16% 48% 36% Apr-09 13% 49% 37% 1% Feb-09 15% 50% 35% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Getting better Staying the same Getting worse Don't know/Refused to answer 14 Elections and Political Parties What issue do you think politicians talk TOO MUCH about? (Spontaneous response) Integration in the EU 16% Personal and party interests 11% Conflict between parties 10% Demagoguery, political marketing 7% Crime 6% Name issue 6% Economic development, investment 5% Elections 4% General political situation 4% Entrance into NATO 4% Unimportant things 4% The "Racketeering" case* 3% Corruption 3% Law and order, rule of law 2% The Public Prosecution Law** 2% Other 8% Don't know/Refused to answer 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% *Refers to the indictment of the head of the Special Prosecutor’s Office for involvement in an extortion case.
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