Public Opinion Poll: Residents of North Macedonia
January 30 – February 10, 2020 Detailed Methodology
• The survey was conducted on behalf of International Republican Institute's Center for Insights in Survey Research by Brima market research firm. • Data was collected from January 30 to February 10, 2020, through face-to-face interviews using TAPI (Tablet Assisted Personal Interviewing), in the home of the respondent by trained interviewers. • A sample of 1,222 respondents age 18 and over was surveyed. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.8 percent at the midrange of the 95 percent confidence level. The response rate was 73 percent. • The sample is nationally representative of the adult 18+ population by age, gender, region, urbanicity and ethnicity. The design is based on State Statistical Office (SSO) estimates for December 31, 2018. Estimates for ethnicity are based on the 2002 Census. • A stratified multistage probability sampling method was used, with stratification based on three stages: • Stages 1: Probability proportionate to size (PPS) into eight regions, by urbanicity and ethnicity (Macedonian/Others and Albanian). • Stage 2: Allocation of number of primary sampling units (PSUs) by municipalities within each stratum, taking municipal population size into account. • Stage 3: Random selection of actual PSUs within municipalities. • The “next birthday method” was used to select respondents, in combination with an ethnic quota. • The data was weighted for age, gender, region and ethnicity. Age, gender and regional weights correspond to the 2018 SSO estimates. The ethnicity weight factor corresponds to the 2002 Census. • Figures in charts and tables may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. All sub-group bases cited in this presentation are weighted. • This poll was conducted with support from the National Endowment for Democracy. Political Party Glossary
Party Name
Alternative
BESA: Movement Besa
DOM: Democratic Movement of Macedonia
DPA: Democratic Party of Albanians
DUI: Democratic Union for Integration
LDP: Liberal Democratic Party
The Left: Levica
SDSM: Social Democratic Union of Macedonia
VMRO-DPMNE: Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization – Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity
3 Political Context
• Spring 2020 – North Macedonia is expected to become a full member of NATO. • April 12, 2020 – Snap parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place. • January 3, 2020 – A caretaker government which includes representatives of the opposition is elected. It is mandated for 100 days in office prior to parliamentary elections and it is responsible for organizing fair, democratic and credible elections. • October 19, 2019 – Prime Minister Zoran Zaev calls for snap parliamentary elections. • October 18, 2019 – The European Council fails to approve the start of EU accession talks with North Macedonia and Albania following rejection by France. • June 27, 2018 – Macedonia and Greece sign the Prespa Agreement, leading to a change in the country’s name to North Macedonia and resolving a 27-year dispute which was an obstacle to the country’s integration into the EU and NATO. • May 31, 2017 – An SDSM-led government takes power following 11 years of rule by VMRO-DPMNE. The largest ethnic Albanian party, DUI, is part of the SDSM-led government. Previously, DUI was part of the VMRO-DPMNE-led government. 4 Economic Outlook of the Country In general, would you say that North Macedonia is heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction? Feb-20 23% 33% 43% 1% Jul-18 37% 30% 30% 2% Aug-17 27% 31% 40% 2% Mar-17 14% 28% 56% 2% Nov-16 26% 24% 48% 3% Apr-16 20% 21% 58% 2% Jan-16 28% 24% 46% 3% Oct-15 24% 26% 48% 2% Jun-15 23% 28% 48% 1% Dec-14 29% 31% 39% 2% Sep-14 36% 24% 39% 1% May-14 39% 27% 33% 2% Feb-14 31% 26% 41% 2% Nov-12 27% 27% 44% 2% Dec-10 22% 30% 48% 1% Sep-10 19% 36% 43% 2% May-10 23% 31% 45% 2% Dec-09 31% 35% 32% 2% Sep-09 29% 40% 29% 2% Jun-09 26% 32% 40% 2% Apr-09 24% 36% 38% 3% Feb-09 25% 38% 36% 1% Dec-08 32% 33% 33% 2% Sep-08 34% 33% 31% 3% Jun-08 38% 32% 28% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Right direction Neutral Wrong direction Don't know/Refused to answer 6 What is the most important problem facing North Macedonia today? … And what is the second most important problem? (Spontaneous responses)
Unemployment 19% 10% 29% The economic situation 14% 9% 23% Poverty, low standard of living* 10% 12% 22% Low or nonpayment of salary or pension 9% 9% 18% Youth emigration 9% 9% 18% Corruption 6% 9% 15% 27% corruption and crime Crime 6% 6% 12% combined The general political situation 5% 5% 10% Integration in EU 3% 1% 4% First mention Rule of law/Law and order 2% 5% 7% Second mention The name issue** 2% 1% 3% No future for the youth, employment for the youth 2% <1% 3%
Pollution 2% 4% 6% Healthcare 1% 3% 4% Education 1% 2% 2% Agriculture, low prices of agricultural products 1%1% 2% Other 8% 12% 20% Don't know 2%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% *Response category also includes “problems of common people” **Name issue refers to the country’s name change as part of the Prespa Agreement 7 In your opinion, did Zaev’s Government dedicate itself to solving the first most important problem North Macedonia is facing that you mentioned before?*
4% 8% Yes, completely
In general, yes 28% 26% In general, no
Not at all
Don’t know/Refused to answer
34%
*n=1,219, those who mentioned first important problem 8 In the next two years, will the economy in North Macedonia get better, get worse, or stay the same? Feb-20 24% 45% 22% 9% Jul-18 38% 32% 22% 8% Aug-17 33% 35% 23% 9% Mar-17 21% 33% 31% 15% Nov-16 24% 36% 27% 13% Apr-16 21% 32% 35% 11% Jan-16 26% 33% 32% 10% Oct-15 20% 39% 33% 9% Jun-15 19% 43% 29% 9% Dec-14 23% 43% 29% 5% Sep-14 21% 44% 29% 7% May-14 26% 40% 29% 6% Feb-14 25% 40% 30% 5% Nov-12 25% 34% 35% 6% Dec-10 28% 34% 33% 4% Sep-10 23% 36% 37% 4% May-10 29% 32% 35% 4% Dec-09 34% 30% 30% 5% Sep-09 31% 37% 28% 4% Jun-09 30% 30% 35% 5% Apr-09 31% 29% 35% 5% Feb-09 29% 30% 37% 4% Dec-08 33% 29% 31% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Get better Stay the same Get worse Don't know/Refused to answer 9 In your opinion, over the last year has unemployment…?
February 2020 10% 26% 19% 30% 9% 6%
July 2018 9% 23% 30% 27% 5% 7%
August 2017 13% 31% 17% 29% 4% 6%
March 2017 18% 26% 11% 32% 7% 6%
November 2016 18% 28% 12% 25% 9% 9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Increased Increased The same Decreased somewhat Decreased Don't know/ a lot somewhat a lot Refused to answer
10 How is your family’s economic situation compared to one year ago? Feb-20 3% 19% 58% 14% 5%1% Jul-18 5% 15% 63% 12% 5% Aug-17 2% 14% 61% 16% 6%1% Mar-17 1% 10% 54% 23% 11% Nov-16 3% 12% 51% 20% 13% Apr-16 2% 13% 50% 21% 14% 1% Jan-16 5% 15% 45% 23% 12% Oct-15 2% 12% 52% 18% 15% Jun-15 2% 11% 51% 22% 13% 1% Dec-14 2% 13% 54% 22% 10% Sep-14 4% 12% 54% 20% 10% 1% May-14 2% 13% 53% 21% 10% Feb-14 2% 12% 51% 20% 14% 1% Nov-12 2% 11% 43% 26% 18% Dec-10 2% 12% 44% 26% 16% Sep-10 2% 10% 43% 26% 19% May-10 2% 11% 43% 26% 19% Dec-09 2% 11% 45% 26% 16% Sep-09 1% 15% 44% 26% 15% Jun-09 3% 12% 43% 26% 17% Apr-09 2% 10% 44% 26% 18% Feb-09 2% 14% 42% 25% 17% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Much better Somewhat better Same Somewhat worse Much worse Don't know/Refused to answer 11 How would you describe the current economic situation of your household?
<1%
5% 11% Very good
Somewhat good
Somewhat bad
Very bad 32% 51% Don't know/Refuse to answer
12 Is your household monthly income sufficient to satisfy monthly needs?
9% 17% Yes, completely
Yes, somewhat
Not sufficient 35%
Not at all
39%
13 Speaking personally, is your overall quality of life…?
Feb-20 18% 59% 23% Jul-18 17% 59% 23% 1% Aug-17 15% 60% 24% Mar-17 9% 52% 38% Nov-16 13% 50% 37% Apr-16 13% 44% 42% 1% Jan-16 18% 45% 37% 1% Oct-15 14% 50% 36% 1% Jun-15 11% 52% 37% Dec-14 12% 53% 34% Sep-14 13% 47% 38% 1% May-14 15% 53% 32% 1% Feb-14 17% 51% 31% 1% Nov-12 13% 48% 39% 1% Dec-10 15% 47% 37% 1% Sep-10 13% 47% 40% May-10 17% 45% 38% Dec-09 14% 48% 37% Sep-09 16% 50% 33% 1% Jun-09 16% 48% 36% Apr-09 13% 49% 37% 1% Feb-09 15% 50% 35% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Getting better Staying the same Getting worse Don't know/Refused to answer 14 Elections and Political Parties What issue do you think politicians talk TOO MUCH about? (Spontaneous response)
Integration in the EU 16% Personal and party interests 11% Conflict between parties 10% Demagoguery, political marketing 7% Crime 6% Name issue 6% Economic development, investment 5% Elections 4% General political situation 4% Entrance into NATO 4% Unimportant things 4% The "Racketeering" case* 3% Corruption 3% Law and order, rule of law 2% The Public Prosecution Law** 2% Other 8% Don't know/Refused to answer 5%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% *Refers to the indictment of the head of the Special Prosecutor’s Office for involvement in an extortion case. **Refers to the recently passed Law on the Public Prosecution, which increases the competence of the Public Prosecutor’s Office.16 What issue do you think politicians should talk MORE about? (Spontaneous response)
Economic development, investment 30%
Poverty, low standard, problems of common people 14%
Unemployment and solving the issue of unemployment 12%
Youth problems, youth emigration 10%
Education 4%
Low or non-payment of salary or pension 3%
Improving the standard of living 3%
The future of the country, its reform and development 2%
EU Integration and NATO 2%
Social problems, social care 2%
Law and order, rule of law 2%
Other 14%
Don't know/Refused to answer 3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 17 Which political party do you think is the best to address each of the following issues:
60%
50% 50% 50%
40% 38% 36% 34%
30%
20% 17% 18% 16%16% 16% 17% 13% 12% 12% 12% 10% 11% 10% 9% 10% 9% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 4% 4% 3%3%2% 3% 3%3% 3%3% 3%3% 0% Environment, Support youth Support women Fight corruption Grow the economy pollution SDSM VMRO-DPMNE DUI BESA AA DOM None Don't know/Refused to answer
*Only political parties named by at least 2 percent are presented. 18 Do you agree or disagree that VMRO-DPMNE acts constructively in opposition?
35% 31% 30%
25% 25% 23% 22% 21% 21% 20% 20%
15% 13% 13% 11% 10%
5%
0% Completely agree Somewhat agree Somewhat Completely Don’t know/ disagree disagree Refused to answer July 2018 February 2020
19 I will read you a list of political parties. Please tell me if you have a highly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or highly unfavorable opinion of this party. (Net favorability of political parties, Don’t know/Refused is not displayed)
15% 11%
22% 22% 2% 4% 4% 15% 1% 6% 12% 10% 11% 8% 7% 8%
20% 14% 17% 19% 17% 17% 14% 14% 18% -19 -28 38% 38% 36% 47% -38 -44 51% 57% 56% 64% 60% -54 -58 -63 -65 -70
SDSM VMRO-DPMNE DOM LDP Movement AA Alternative DUI DPA BESA (Party of (Party of (Party of Bilall Ziadin Sela) Afrim Gashi) Kasami)
■ Very favorable ■ Somewhat favorable ■ Somewhat unfavorable ■ Very unfavorable
20 To which political party do you belong?
VMRO-DPMNE 12%
SDSM 11%
DUI 7%
BESA 4% 40%
AA 4%
DPA 1%
Other 1%
Don't belong to any party 52%
Refused to answer 9%
0% 20% 40% 60%
21 I will read you a list of names of political persons. Please tell me if you have a highly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or highly unfavorable opinion of this individual. (Net favorability of political persons, Don’t know/Refused is not displayed)
21% 18% 10% 29% 7% 2% 2% 5% 3% +9 22% 21% 6% 13% 11% 14% 14% 1% 13% 9% 8% 10% 17% 20% 12% 15% 17% 12% 16% 13% 14% -15 -19 -24 24% 24% -29 27% 35% 48% 59% 45% 53% 55% 64% -49 -50 -54 -56 -64
President Former Prime Maja Goran Hristijan Bilall Kasami, Nikola Ziadin Sela, Afrim Gashi, Ali Ahmeti, Stevo Minister Zoran Morachanin, Milevski, Mickoski, leader of BESA Gruevski, leader of AA leader of leader of DUI Pendarovski Zaev leader of DOM leader of LDP leader of former leader Alternative VMRO-DPMNE of VMRO- DPMNE
■ Very favorable ■ Somewhat favorable ■ Somewhat unfavorable ■ Very unfavorable 22 When you think about people in political life, who is the one person in North Macedonia whom you view most favorably? (Spontaneous response)
13% 16% Zoran Zaev 16% 10% 6% Hristijan Mickoski 2% 4% February 2020 5% Ali Ahmeti 6% 5% July 2018 3% 1% Ziadin Sela 4% August 2017 3% 3% 7% March 2017 Nikola Gruevski 11% 16% 3% Bilall Kasami 2% Stevo Pendarovski 2% Nikola Dimitrov 2% 1% 5% Gjorge Ivanov 5% 9% 1% Mila Carovska 41% 45% None 31% 32% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
23 Do you think there are conditions in the country to hold free and fair elections?
35% 33%
30%
25% 24% 22%
20%
15% 15%
10%
6% 5%
0%
Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no Don’t know/Refused to answer
24 How likely or unlikely are you to vote in the parliamentary elections on April 12?
February 2020 46% 28% 7% 3% 10% 6%
July 2018 61% 21% 4% 3%1% 10%
August 2017 61% 22% 4% 2% 8% 2%
March 2017 59% 18% 7% 3% 6% 7%
November 2016 62% 22% 4% 4% 4% 5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely
Very unlikely Would not vote Don't know/ Refused to answer
25 How likely or unlikely are you to vote in the parliamentary elections on April 12? (Disaggregated by age groups)
56+ years old 56% 22% 4% 3% 10% 4% (n=394)
36-55 years old 43% 28% 6% 4% 11% 8% (n=426)
18-35 years old 38% 33% 10% 3% 9% 7% (n=403)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely Would not vote Don't know/Refused to answer
26 If elections were held this coming Sunday for which party, if any, would you vote?*
17% SDSM 21% 20% 16% VMRO-DPMNE 18% 17% 7% DUI 7% 7% 5% Alliance for Albanians (party of Ziadin Sela) 2% 5% February 2020 4% Movement BESA (party of Bilall Kasami) 1% 4% July 2018 1% DPA 1% 1% August 2017 1% The Left 1%
2% Other 1%
4% None/Will spoil the ballot 2% 5% 12% I would not vote on the day of the elections 4% 6% 21% Undecided/Don't know 19% 22% 12% Refused to answer 23% 11% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
*See glossary of political parties on Slide 3. 27 Attitudes toward Euro-Atlantic Integration and Foreign Relations Do you support North Macedonia becoming a member of the European Union?
Feb-20 80% 16% 4% Jul-18 83% 14% 3% Aug-17 77% 20% 3% Mar-17 72% 21% 6% Nov-16 76% 19% 5% Apr-16 71% 23% 7% Jan-16 72% 22% 6% Oct-15 72% 22% 6% Jun-15 80% 14% 6% Dec-14 76% 20% 4% Sep-14 72% 23% 5% May-14 72% 20% 8% Feb-14 76% 19% 6% Nov-12 84% 12% 4% Dec-10 87% 9% 4% Sep-10 90% 9% 1% May-10 92% 7% 1% Dec-09 94% 6% 1% Sep-09 96% 4% 1% Jun-09 93% 6% 1% Apr-09 95% 4% 1% Dec-08 92% 7% 1% Sep-08 93% 5%1% Jun-08 94% 4% 2% Apr-08 96% 3%1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Yes No Don't know/Refused to answer 29 What is most important for North Macedonia's accession to the EU?
Implementation of domestic reforms requested by EU 35%
Political will by the EU to accept N.Macedonia into the EU 24%
Both of these 30%
Other 1%
Don't know/ Refused to answer 10%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
30 In how many years do you think North Macedonia will become a member of the EU?
28% 35% 1-5 18% 21% 16% 25% 27% 6-10 23% 25% 25% 24% 17% More than 10 25% 21% 27% 15% 14% Never 18% 17% 18% 8% Don't know/ 7% 17% Refused to answer 16% 8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Feb 2020 July 2018 April 2016 January 2016 October 2015
31 Do you think North Macedonia is closer to EU entry today, or was it closer when it first received its EU candidate member status?*
20-Feb 44% 27% 29%
18-Jul 57% 19% 24%
17-Aug 41% 35% 24%
17-Mar 13% 59% 28%
16-Nov 24% 47% 29%
16-Apr 18% 56% 26%
16-Jan 24% 50% 26%
15-Oct 25% 50% 26%
15-Jun 21% 51% 28%
14-Dec 28% 44% 28%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Now When first received its EU candidate status Don't know/Refused to answer *First received in December 2005 32 Do you support North Macedonia becoming a member of NATO?
Feb-20 76% 21% 3% Jul-18 77% 19% 4% Aug-17 75% 21% 4% Mar-17 71% 21% 8% Nov-16 77% 18% 5% Apr-16 73% 20% 8% Jan-16 76% 18% 7% Oct-15 74% 19% 7% Jun-15 83% 12% 5% Dec-14 83% 13% 4% Sep-14 77% 15% 7% May-14 78% 16% 6% Feb-14 85% 11% 4% Nov-12 87% 9% 4% Dec-10 91% 6% 3% Sep-10 89% 10% 2% May-10 89% 10% 2% Dec-09 91% 8% 1% Sep-09 94% 5% 1% Jun-09 92% 7% 1% Apr-09 94% 6% 1% Dec-08 89% 9% 2% Sep-08 90% 8% 2% Jun-08 90% 8% 2% Apr-08 92% 5% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Yes No Don't know/Refused to answer 33 How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements: “North Macedonia’s interests are best served by maintaining strong relations with…”
France Feb-20 25% 31% 18% 20% 6%
Feb-20 55% 27% 6% 8% 3% European Jul-18 58% 21% 9% 8% 4% Union Aug-17 55% 25% 6% 10% 4%
Feb-20 52% 31% 7% 6% 4% Germany Jul-18 48% 29% 12% 7% 4% Aug-17 46% 31% 9% 8% 6%
Feb-20 41% 31% 12% 12% 4% United Jul-18 44% 27% 11% 14% 4% States Aug-17 47% 25% 10% 13% 5%
Feb-20 43% 40% 8% 5% 4% Turkey Jul-18 43% 30% 14% 8% 5% Aug-17 40% 33% 11% 9% 7%
Feb-20 27% 27% 14% 25% 7% Russia Jul-18 34% 27% 16% 18% 6% Aug-17 27% 23% 14% 29% 7%
Feb-20 23% 30% 14% 24% 9% China Jul-18 28% 30% 18% 17% 8% Aug-17 25% 27% 15% 24% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know/Refused to answer
34 Which one of these countries helps North Macedonia’s national interests the most?
23% 27% European Union 18% 17% 10% 16% United States of America 22% 17% 17% 14% Turkey 18% February 2020 15% 7% July 2018 7% Russia 6% 11% August 2017 18% 8% Germany 6% 6% March 2017 1% 1% China 1% 3% 14% 13% None of them 18% 17% 3% 3% All of them 5% 4% 6% 9% Don't know/Refused to answer 6% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
35 Government’s Performance Based on its actions and behavior, do you consider the Government of Zoran Zaev to be transparent or nontransparent?
60%
51% 52% 50% 46% 47% 43%
40% 37% 35% 32% 30%
19% 20% 17%
10% 10% 10%
0% Transparent Nontransparent Don't know/ Refused to answer
December 2014 August 2017 July 2018 February 2020
*Answers from December 2014 refer to the government led by Nikola Gruevski, VMRO-DPMNE. 37 How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “The Government led by SDSM is open and accountable to the citizens and the public”?
40%
35% 34% 31% 30% 28% 26% 25% 20% 20% 19% 19%
15% 12%
10% 7%
5% 3%
0% Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know/ Refused to answer July 2018 February 2020
38 Has Zoran Zaev done his job well enough to deserve re- election?
15%
31% Yes
No
Don't know/ Refused to answer
54%
39 Which three ministers in Prime Minister Zaev’s Government were not doing their job as they should? (Up to three responses permitted)
Zoran Zaev 8% 1% 1% Radmila Shekerinska (Defense, DPM)* 4% 3% 2% Kocho Angushev (Economy, DPM) 3% 2% 2% Venko Filipce (Health) 3% 3% 4% Sadula Duraku (Political System, DPM)** 3% 1% Bujar Osmani (European Affairs, DPM) 3% 2% 1% First mention Renata Deskoska (Justice) 3% 2% 2% Naser Nuredini (Environment) 3% 2% 2% Second mention Arber Ademi (Education) 2% 3% 2% Oliver Spasovski (Internal Affairs, DPM) 2% 3% 3% Third mention Nikola Dimitrov (Foreign Affairs) 2% 2% 2% Nina Angelovska (Finance) 2% 2% 1% Husni Ismaili (Culture) 1%1% 2% Mila Carovska (Labor and Social Policy) 1%2% 2% Trajan Dimkovski (Agriculture) 1%2% 2% Kreshnik Bekteshi (Economy) 1%2% 2% Damjan Manchevski (Administration)*** 1%1% 1% Goran Sugarevski (Transport and Communications) 1%2% 1% Other 2% 5% 6% All of them 27% Don't know/Refused to answer 28% 4% 4%
*DPM stands for Deputy Prime Minister 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% **Political System and Relations among the Communities ***Information Society and Administration 40 Which three ministers in Prime Minister Zaev’s Government were doing the best job? (Up to three responses permitted)
Zoran Zaev 11% 2% 2%
Mila Carovska (Labor and Social Policy) 7% 5% 5%
Oliver Spasovski (Internal Affairs, DPM) 5% 4% 4%
Bujar Osmani (European Affairs, DPM) 4% 3% 2%
Radmila Shekerinska (Defense, DPM) 4% 4% 3%
Nikola Dimitrov (Foreign Affairs) 3% 4% 3% First mention Venko Filipce (Health) 2% 3% 3% Second mention Nina Angelovska (Finance) 2% 2% 2%
Arber Ademi (Education) 1%2% 2% Third mention
Kreshnik Bekteshi (Economy) 1% 1%
Renata Deskoska (Justice) 1%2% 2%
Kocho Angushev (Economy, DPM) 1%1% 1%
Trajan Dimkovski (Agriculture) 1%1% 1%
Goran Sugarevski (Transport and Communications) 1%1% 1%
Other 2% 5% 7%
None 40%
Don't know/Refused to answer 13% 6% 4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 41 Governance and Strength of Institutions Is North Macedonia more or less stable today than it was one year ago? Feb-20 20% 54% 25% 1% Jul-18 37% 35% 25% 3% Aug-17 28% 45% 25% 2% Mar-17 4% 25% 70% 2% Nov-16 13% 44% 40% 2% Apr-16 5% 25% 67% 3% Jan-16 15% 35% 47% 3% Oct-15 18% 38% 42% 3% Jun-15 5% 35% 58% 2% Dec-14 16% 51% 31% 2% Sep-14 18% 47% 31% 4% May-14 22% 45% 27% 5% Feb-14 23% 43% 33% 3% Nov-12 21% 50% 28% 1% Dec-10 18% 53% 29% 1% Sep-10 19% 54% 26% 1% May-10 14% 42% 43% 1% Dec-09 25% 54% 20% 1% Sep-09 27% 54% 18% 1% Jun-09 22% 58% 19% 1% Apr-09 21% 60% 17% 2% Feb-09 24% 51% 24% 2% Dec-08 30% 46% 23% 2% Sep-08 33% 47% 17% 3% Jun-08 26% 46% 25% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% More stable Same Less stable Don't know/Refused to answer 43 How would you describe the current internal political situation in North Macedonia? Feb-20 43% 43% 12% 2% Jul-18 42% 40% 14% 4% Aug-17 44% 44% 10% 2% Mar-17 5% 62% 32% 2% Nov-16 21% 57% 17% 5% Apr-16 5% 55% 38% 2% Jan-16 19% 59% 19% 3% Oct-15 29% 51% 16% 4% Jun-15 15% 61% 23% 2% Dec-14 42% 43% 12% 4% Sep-14 39% 46% 12% 4% May-14 44% 41% 9% 6% Feb-14 39% 45% 12% 4% Nov-12 40% 45% 13% 3% Dec-10 42% 43% 13% 3% Sep-10 48% 41% 9% 2% May-10 28% 55% 15% 2% Dec-09 44% 43% 10% 3% Sep-09 56% 35% 6% 3% Jun-09 51% 38% 7% 4% Dec-08 54% 36% 7% 3% Sep-08 53% 36% 8% 4% Jun-08 44% 43% 10% 3% Apr-08 23% 61% 13% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Peaceful and stable Intense and uncertain Critical and unstable Don't know/Refused to answer 44 Do you believe that democracy is the best possible form of government for our country or not?
Yes, it is the best possible form of government for our country 12%
No, there are other forms of 11% government that could be equally good for our country
No, there are other forms of 16% 61% government that are better than democracy
Don't know/Refused to answer
45 The rule of law in a democracy could be understood as “a state when all people and institutions are accountable to the law and the Constitution, and the Constitution and the law are equally applied towards all.” How strongly do you agree or disagree that rule of law exists in our country?
February 2020 17% 28% 18% 31% 6%
July 2018 14% 29% 29% 24% 4%
August 2017 18% 23% 19% 36% 4%
March 2017 12% 26% 21% 36% 6%
November 2016 17% 30% 20% 28% 6%
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know/Refused to answer
46 Now I would like to discuss corruption with you. When I say corruption, I mean having to do a favor, give a gift or pay a bribe because someone misuses their position for personal gains. To what extent, if any, has corruption had a negative impact on you?
7% A lot of negative impact
26% Some negative impact 27%
Little negative impact
No negative impact
26% 14% Do not know/Refused to answer
47 In the past 12 months, how often, if at all, have you had to do a favor, give a gift or pay a bribe?
6% 3% 3% 7%
Daily
Weekly
21% Monthly
Less frequently
Not at all
60% Do not know/Refused to answer
48 Do you think your phone conversations are:
February 2020 35% 46% 19%
July 2018 34% 45% 21%
August 2017 39% 46% 15%
October 2015 35% 50% 15%
June 2015 31% 52% 18%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Private and safe? That is, you and the other person in the conversation are the only ones aware of the conversation. Not private and safe? That is, there is a possibility that your conversations are being listened to and/or recorded by a third party. Don't know/Refused to answer 49 To what extent do you trust or distrust each of the following institutions:…?
Your municipal government 9% 31% 26% 30% 4% Education institutions 9% 46% 26% 16% 4% Government 8% 27% 25% 37% 3% The State Election Commission 6% 33% 24% 29% 8% Police 6% 40% 29% 23% 2% Public health care institutions 6% 44% 28% 22% 1% CSOs/NGOs 6% 35% 27% 22% 9% Opposition 6% 31% 24% 34% 5% Media 4% 43% 33% 18% 2% The State Commission for Prevention of Corruption 4% 25% 24% 40% 7% Parliament 3% 28% 29% 37% 2% Public prosecution 3% 21% 22% 50% 4% Courts/Judiciary 2% 21% 27% 49% 2% Political parties 2% 27% 28% 40% 2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Trust a great deal Somewhat trust Somewhat distrust Distrust a great deal Don’t know/Refused to answer
50 Social Cohesion Fill in the blank: Macedonia is…*/North Macedonia is…** (Multiple responses permitted)
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25% 43% 20% 38% 15% 30% 27% 26% 21% 10% 20% 18% 5% 11% 3% 1% 0% My country My homeland My state All of the above None of the Other above
Macedonia is… North Macedonia is… A split sample method was applied on this question: half of the sample was asked how they feel about “Macedonia” and the other half was asked how they feel about “North Macedonia.” * n=628, margin of error ± 3.9% ** n=594, margin of error ± 4.0% 52 What language(s) do you speak at a level to be able to study and work in that language? (Spontaneous response; multiple responses permitted)
Macedonian 83%
Albanian 27%
Serbian/Croatian/Bosnian 21%
English 21%
German 7%
Turkish 5%
Roma 3%
Other 3%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
53 Should all citizens, regardless of ethnic background, be proficient in Macedonian language as the official state language?
100% 86% 84%
80%
60%
40%
20% 15% 9% 5% 1% 0% Yes No Don't know/ Refused to answer July 2018 February 2020 54 Our country recently changed its name to North Macedonia. Did this affect the identity of ethnic Macedonians?
7%
Yes
No
46% Don't know/ Refused to answer
47%
55 According to you, to what extent is there political division and polarization in North Macedonia?
6% 3% To a great extent 9% To some extent
To a little extent
50% Not at all
Don’t know/Refused to answer 31%
56 According to you, to what extent do each of these institutions create political division and polarization in North Macedonia?
Government 39% 34% 13% 7% 7%
Opposition 32% 37% 15% 7% 9%
Media 27% 44% 15% 7% 7%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
To a great extent To some extent To a little extent Not at all Don’t know/Refused to answer
57 How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements about life in North Macedonia?
Women and men have equal conditions to 26% 39% 20% 12% 3% advance in politics
Women and men have equal conditions to 27% 37% 22% 12% 1% advance at their workplace
Women and men have an equal share in taking care of the household, looking after 21% 41% 25% 12% 1% children, looking after the elderly, etc.
I am satisfied with my life in N. Macedonia 11% 36% 29% 24% 1%
I am able to have a proper work-life balance 19% 50% 21% 8%1% (only empoyed)*
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Completely agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Completely disagree Don’t know/Refused to answer *n=578, margin of error ±4.3% 58 Is there any member of your household who has emigrated to live and/or work abroad?
1%
16% Yes, in the last year
Yes, in the last three years
Yes, three and more years ago 49% 15% No
Refused to answer
19%
59 How important or unimportant is it that all members of our country’s adult population are included in political decision making? How important is that […] are included?
Women 49% 36% 9% 3% 2%
Young adults 63% 27% 6% 2% 2%
People with disabilities 31% 43% 12% 6% 8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Very important Somewhat important Somewhat unimportant Very unimportant Don’t know/Refused to answer 60 Do you think that today’s generation of young people has a good future in our country or not?
4% 19% Has a good future
Doesn’t have a good future
Don't know/ Refused to answer
77%
61 Environmental Awareness: Usage of Plastic Bags On average, how many single-use plastic bags do you get on a daily basis to carry your purchases?
None 7%
1 25%
2 31%
Average use: 3 20% 2.15 single-use plastic bags a day 4 6%
5 4%
6 or more 2%
Don't know/ 5% Refused to answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
63 In your opinion, how much, if at all, do plastic bags/biodegradable bags pollute the environment?
Plastic bags Biodegradable bags
3% 6% 11%
30% 19% 29%
62%
40%
Significantly pollute the environment, with damaging consequences to it Pollute the environment, but not significantly Don't pollute the environment Don't know/Refused to answer 64 According to you, what are the best measures to decrease the use of plastic bags? (Up to two responses permitted)
Incentivize use of resuable bags 50%
Forbid use of plastic bags 50%
Add a mandatory fee for plastic bags 19%
None 8%
Don't know/ Refused to answer 3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
65 How do you throw your garbage away at home?
In plastic carrier bags 52%
In plastic garbage bags 24%
In both 22%
Directly in the bin 1%
Don't know/ 1% Refused to answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
66 Do you sort waste in your home? Do you separate waste from plastic, glass, paper, food, etc.?
Yes, all the time 11%
Yes, most of the time 20%
Yes, but rarely 25%
No 45%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
67 Sources of Political News How much did you follow political news yesterday?
16% I followed all of it 22% 24%
23% I followed most of it 28% 19%
34% I followed some of it 28% 21%
26% I did not follow any of it 22% 35%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
February 2020 July 2018 August 2017
* Don’t know/Refused to answer is not displayed. 69 Where did you follow political news yesterday? (Spontaneous response; multiple responses permitted; among those who answered that they followed at least some political news yesterday)
100% 89% 90% 84% 81% 80%
70%
60%
50% 40% 35% 36% 29% 30% 26% 20% 20% 10% 9% 7% 10% 6% 5% 3% 6% 0% Television Internet, online, Printed media, Family and friends Multiple sources (TV, social media newspapers internet, newspapers, friends) August 2017 (n=710; margin of error ± 3.6) July 2018 (n=853; margin of error ± 3.4) February 2020 (n=888; margin of error ± 3.2)
70 What are your most used sources of political news? (Multiple responses permitted)
100% 89% 90% 86% 85%84% 80% 80%
70%
60%
50% 39%38%39% 40% 35% 32% 32% 29% 30% 27%27% 22% 20% 12% 9% 8% 7% 10% 5% 4% 6% 5% 3% 4% 3% 2% 4% 3% 2% 0% Television Radio Print media Family/ Political parties Internet/ Friends Websites
November 2016 March 2017 August 2017 July 2018 February 2020
71 Which television station do you watch most often for political news? (Spontaneous response; multiple responses permitted)
Sitel 26% 11% 5%
AlsatM 19% 5% 1%
Kanal 5 15% 20% 8%
MTV (Macedonian language) 8% 2% 2%
Telma 8% 8% 7%
24 Vesti 7% 7% 6%
Alfa 3% 3% 3%
MTV (Albanian language) 3% 1%
TV Shenja 1% 2% 2%
TV 21 1% 5% 4%
Local TV station 2% 2%
Do not watch TV 8% 0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
First mention Second mention Third mention
72 Which daily newspaper do you read most often for political news? (Spontaneous response)
Lajme 4%
Koha 4%
Sloboden pecat 3%
Vecer 2%
Nova Makedonija 2%
Do not read newspapers 83%
Don't know/Refused to answer 2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
February 2020
73 Demographics Demographics
Gender Female 50%
Male 50%
Age 18-35 33%
36-55 35%
56+ 32%
Ethnic Macedonian 64% background
Albanian 25%
Other 11%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
75 Demographics
Education Complete tertiary/higher education 24% Complete secondary school 51% Complete primary school 19% No formal education/Incomplete primary school 6% Occupation Blue-collar worker 31% White-collar worker 9% Professional 4% Agricultural 3% Unemployed 16% Housewife 9% Student/Pupil 7% Retired 21% Other 1% Refused to Answer 1% Working Private sector 74% sector Public sector 26% Religious Orthodox Christianity 64% background Islam 35% Christianity-other 1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
76 Center for Insights in Survey Research 202.408.9450 | [email protected] www.IRI.org | @IRI_Polls