36 September 1986 Marxism Today

The Sectarian Divide: Ireland After The Accord Paul Bew and Henry Patterson Violence has intensified amongst both Protestants and Catholics since the signing of the Anglo-Irish When the Anglo-Irish Agreement was tive role' in Northern Irish affairs, though Agreement. What are the prospects signed last November it was widely hailed it clearly amounted to less than the joint as a triumph of enlightenment which authority demanded by Dublin's New for the future? offered the hope of peace and reconcilia- Ireland Forum, embracing the main par- tion to the people of . ties of constitutional nationalism, in May The principal feature of the Agreement 1984. was the establishment of an Anglo-Irish The Hillsborough Agreement then was inter-governmental conference, serviced a highly ambiguous document. While it by a secretariat including Irish officials, spoke of the need for Unionist consent to a based in Maryfield, Co Down. A key United Ireland it provided no explicit phrase in the Agreement states 'deter- means - such as a border poll - of measur- mined efforts shall be made through the ing that consent, and nowhere spoke of conference to resolve any difference'; in Northern Ireland as an integral part of the effect, this means that the Irish govern- UK. The Accord insists that 'there is no ment has been given a 'more than consulta- derogation from the sovereignty of the September 1986 Marxism Today 37

Masked Loyalist: three youths stand triumphantly on the remains of a bumt-out car set alight during the violence that followed the signing of the Accord. sifies. In other words, there is a good case for arguing that what there is in Northern Ireland now is not some temporary 'hump' which has to be got over before improve- ments can take place, but rather manifesta- tions of a process which will continue so long as British policy remains unchanged.

The Protestant community The initial reaction of almost the entire Protestant community to the Anglo-Irish Agreement was one of shock and dismay; a fact which was registered in the large Unionist vote in the January elections. In the early part of 1985, the Unionists, both Official Unionist party (OUP) and Demo- cratic Unionist party (DUP), appeared to be running scared. The Protestant political leadership had felt the chill wind of British disapproval and for the first time were Robinson is a tough and shrewd politician who has changed the DUP style somewhat uncertain. They dropped their demand for a scrapping of the Anglo-Irish Agreement and called instead for a 'sus- pension'. If a suspension were to take place, they implicitly promised to negoti- ate seriously with the Social Democratic Labour party (SDLP) on power sharing and devolution. At this point, the British and Irish governments probably overplay- ed their hand; had the Agreement been suspended the Unionist leadership would have been under significant pressure with- in its own community to resolve the crisis and Ulster's apparently exposed position within the Union - by dealing generously with the constitutional leaders of the Catholic nationalist community. The possibility that the Agreement might lead to power sharing- always a long shot - receded and is now off the political British government' But Mary Holland, The Accord has had no impact on the agenda for the foreseeable future. In more an Irish Times journalist, who has excellent Provisional IRA's campaign except recent months, the Unionists have got access to the views of the Irish govern- perhaps to intensify it as the Provisionals used to the shock of living on the 'window ment, insists, not without reason, that it gleefully mobilise to exploit the new ten- ledge' of the Union, as the phrase has it, represents 'a severe erosion' of British sions between Ulster Protestants and the and there now seems to be little pressure sovereignty in Ulster. British government. The fruits of im- on the leadership to reach a deal with the In fact, 10 months later, much less proved security cooperation with Dublin British government or the SDLP. There is optimism surrounds the working of the have so far been trivial. Protestant secta- instead a widespread assumption that a Anglo-Irish Agreement. It has been associ- rian killers, who have been relatively inac- period of protracted political struggle lies ated with a severe and entirely predictable tive in recent years, have returned to their ahead. increase in communal tension; this was grisly business. Significant enforced Much media attention has been paid to expressed at the political level by the sharp population movements are again reported. the emergence of Peter Robinson, the hard drop in support for the non-sectarian Unemployment, which hits the Catholic line Democratic Unionist MP for East Alliance in the province's January mini community hardest, has risen to over 22% . In particular, Robinson attracted referendum. whilst the closure of local businesses inten- attention during the mass Loyalist strike

38 September 1986 Marxism Today or 'day of action' in March, in which he on the part of the Reverend . were shocked by the wave of Protestant was well to the fore. The DUP, heavily Paisley, who has aged visibly, has hardly attacks on the Royal Ulster Constabulary influenced by Paisley's small town and seemed to be the apparently awesome force (RUC) in March and have now disavowed rural evangelicals, found it difficult to get a he once was. He was caught off guard by the use of the strike weapon. Their leader, foothold in Protestant working class Bel- the signing of the Agreement and for some Jim Molyneaux, is a relatively quiet, col- fast in the 1970s. Robinson made the key months he appeared to be bemused and ourless politician who nurtures 'integra- breakthrough for them when he won the politically out of sorts. His responses lack- tionist' rather than devolutionist views. East Belfast seat in 1979 and he has ed their usual sureness, notably when it Yet, the Offical Unionists, have been consistently pushed up his vote since then appeared for a brief moment in February significantly influenced by the most sur- - turning East Belfast into a safe seat in a that he had accepted Mrs Thatcher's terms prising and unexpected political develop- way which Gerry Adams has yet to do in for a compromise. The closure of the ment of recent months: the emergence of West Belfast. Northern Irish Assembly in June was a the Campaign for Equal Citizenship led by Grammar school educated, Robinson is particular blow to Paisley's prestige as he, Robert McCartney, a liberal Unionist QC a tough and shrewd politician who has more than anyone, had invested a great with self confessed 'socialist leanings'. changed the DUP style in certain respects. deal in this summarily dismissed elected Essentially, the campaign argues that Though personally highly traditional on forum. The mass nocturnal occupation of the refusal of the main British parties to religious matters, he is, for example, pre- Hillsborough in July has however res- organise in Northern Ireland condemns pared to allow a ratepayer's vote on the tored the DUP's traditional momentum. the province to a politics based on the matter of Sunday opening of an ice skating Robinson was merely building on this by endless repetition of sectarian slogans. It rink in his Castlereagh Bailliwick, some- his participation in the occupation of Clon- seems clear that McCartney's argument thing which the more traditional Pais- tibret, a village two miles inside the Irish has had a major impact on Official Union- leyites - fanatically loyal to the 'Ulster Republic. There is no sign as yet, however, ist opinion - especially on the young Sunday' - would baulk at. Robinson seems that the DUP can challenge the Official Unionists - and the devolutionist lobby in to have good relations with forces such as Unionists' dominance in Protestant politics. that party is now very much on the retreat. Alan Wright's Ulster clubs movement and In Jim Prior's day, the Northern Ireland the Ulster Defence Association (UDA) Official Unionism Office liked to speak of the five realities which are at the sharp end of Unionist The Official Unionists are more respect- which govern Northern Ireland politics. It resistance to the Anglo-Irish deal. To a able, less willing to countenance a massive may just be that we should now add a sixth: degree, Robinson's recent prominence confrontation with the British state. They there will be no settlement based primarily merely reflects a bout of unusual hesitancy on devolution because the Official Union- ists are not interested enough and the the closure of the Democratic Unionists - who would dearly Northern Irish love to have Stormont back - will never Assembly in June offer satisfactory terms to the SDLP. was a particular The Catholic community blow to Paisley's On the Catholic side, political develop- ments have been more predictable. One of prestige the British government's key objectives on signing the Agreement was to reduce Sinn Fein's electoral support, as a prelude to the isolation of the IRA. The results of the January mini referen- dum appeared to suggest that the Agree- ment had done just that. But two May council by-election results in Magherafelt and Fermanagh saw Sinn Fein's vote re- turn to pre-Agreement levels. It is doubt- ful also, that they will suffer as a result of

Flying the flag: the day of protest was organised by Unionist leaders determined to break the Anglo-Irish Agreement. September 1986 Marxism Today 41 the increased communal aggravation of the serious political trouble. Fitzgerald's coali- than ever. That section of the Tory lead- summer. Once again they claim to stand as tion recently lost its overall majority in the ership (Hurd, Howe and Chris Patten) protectors of the Catholic community. The Irish parliament and there are close obser- which thought in terms of gradually de- SDLP, the party of constitutional vers of the Dublin scene who feel he may taching Northern Ireland from the UK has nationalism led by John Hume, was in- well be out of office by November. received a rude shock from the outcome of tended to be the principal beneficiary of Fitzgerald's sub-Thatcherite remedies the Republic's divorce referendum - the Agreement and most of its members have been associated with a decline in the which is perceived in many quarters to be a still support the Anglo-Irish process. fortunes of the Irish economy. The vote for partition and a form of 'Rome The recent largely cosmetic reform scourge of mass emigration is once again a Rule' in the South. package (changes to flags and emblems, major talking point. When they vote in the Those who sought primarily an internal measures to aid the Irish language and a next general election, all the signs are that Unionist solution (King, Thatcher and new police complaints procedure) as the electors will thank Fitzgerald for his Tebbit) are, however, equally discom- announced by junior Northern Ireland 'historic achievement' in negotiating the forted. In the early months, King could Agreement, but reject him nonetheless, point to the electoral reverses suffered by the Protestant political because of his economic record. (For a Sinn Fein in the January elections and the generation, at least, the economy and not emergence of the Progressive Democrats leadership had felt the chill the 'national question' has been the domi- (PD) in the Republic as an apparently wind of British disapproval nant issue in the Republic's elections.) major modernising force - with a leader, Fitzgerald, who has enjoyed a huge Desmond O'Malley, who favoured the and for the first time were uncritical media acclaim in the UK, has abandonment of the irredendist articles 2 somewhat uncertain anyway run out of impetus and moral and 3 of the Irish constitution which authority. Always well to the right of express a territorial claim over Northern Minister Nicholas Scott, is an attempt to centre on economic questions, Fitzgerald Ireland. Now Sinn Fein's support appears sustain, or perhaps more accurately, re- gained a certain 'progressive' image in to have stabilised while the 'Dessiecrats', generate the momentum for this group. 1981 on account of his espousal of a as the PDs are known, are checked by the The SDLP has lost some face recently constitutional crusade to remove the continued vitality of Haughey's Fianna because of the Agreement's failure to de- Catholic sectarian elements from the Re- Fail. Indeed, at the next election, the PDs liver concrete benefits to the Catholic public's constitution. Five years later, the may well do most damage to Garret Fitz- community, and - to take a particular case Republic's constitution is more sectarian gerald's Fine Gael party. - because of the RUC's decision to allow an with the inclusion of a new prohibition on Tom King, Northern Ireland Secretary, Orange march down the Catholic Garvahy abortion and the recent massive defeat of who liked to lecture the Unionists on their Road in on July 12. the divorce proposal which signals the end attachment to shibboleths of the past as The Agreement itself is very much the of any further hopes of liberalisation for opposed to the relatively enlightened atti- achievement of the SDLP leader, John some years. tudes in the South, now finds, to his Hume. Hume has argued repeatedly that Equally, Fitzgerald's one other indi- chagrin, that both parts of Ireland are when the British government finally stood vidual contribution to political debate - a equally wedded to traditionalism. His im- up to the Loyalists, a more compliant commitment not to negotiate with the mediate reaction, now apparently passed, leadership would emerge on that side. The British over the heads of the Unionists - was to give an interview to the Belfast current period is providing a harsh test for has been casually abandoned. It now seems Telegraph apparently downgrading the that proposition. possible that Charles Haughey, whose Agreement which provoked no fewer than To put the matter in context, it is worth nationalism is more straightforward than noting that there has always been a tenden- that of Fitzgerald, will be Irish prime cy in Hume's analysis to downplay the role minister before Thatcher calls a British both parts of Ireland are of the tactics of in ensur- general election. Haughey and Thatcher equally wedded to ing the dominance of intransigent currents do not get on and though Haughey will not in Loyalist politics and, as a corollary, to abandon the Agreement, he will not make traditionalism overestimate the potential role of the Brit- even minimal rhetorical concessions to ish state. Unionists either. The scene will be set for 18 points of protest from Dublin. In Hume continues to insist that in the an interesting confrontation. general, King, who inherited the policy autumn - 'Bully Boy' tactics having failed from Hurd, seems to have little clue as to to break Thatcher - 'reasonable' Unionists British strategy what to do, often leaving the running to will emerge to negotiate with him. Few can Here is the conundrum for the British Scott. be found to accept this scenario; even Nick government. They have carefully designed Yet if the British government does not Scott, whose views often seem to be a jaded an Agreement which probably can not be seriously reconsider its strategy the cur- and nihilistic reprise of Hume's - without broken by Unionist resistance. There is no rent deterioration of the Ulster environ- Hume's relatively attractive Parnellian sign as yet that the Loyalists can deliver a ment will continue unabated; this is espe- theme of eventual reconciliation - talks of a knock out blow as they did in 1974. The cially so, if future developments signifi- five year long haul; it is not an enticing Agreement has even survived severe inter- cantly touch the RUC ('Stalkergate') or the prospect. nal disagreements with the Irish govern- judiciary. If Neil Kinnock wins the next ment especially over Garvahy Road. So general election, he may well find that not The Republic far, so good. But the fact remains that the the least of Thatcher's grim legacies is her Meanwhile, Hume's main ally, Garret wider purposes which the Agreement was contribution to intensifying the situation Fitzgerald, the Irish prime minister, is in designed to achieve are more unattainable in Northern Ireland. •