Global Warming Dengue in Florida Morbillivirus
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Tracking trends and analyzing new and reemerging infectious disease issues around the world A peer-reviewed journal published by the National Center for Infectious Diseases Vol.6, No.1, JanFeb 2000 Global Warming Dengue in Florida Morbillivirus DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES CDC CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION Volume 6, Number 1 January–February 2000 Perspectives From Shakespeare to Defoe: Malaria in P. Reiter England in the Little Ice Age ...................... 1 Could a Tuberculosis Epidemic Occur in A.C. Hayward and London as It Did in New York? ................... 12 R.J. Coker Cover: Pieter Bruegel the Elder. Japanese Encephalitis Immunization in Y.M. Sohn Jäeger im Schnee (Hunters in the South Korea: Past, Present, and Future .... 17 Snow) (1563). Reprinted with permission of the Kunsthistorisches Museum, Vienna, Austria. Synopses Coccidioidomycosis in New York State ....... 25 V. Chaturvedi et al. Letters Dengue Surveillance in Florida, J. Gill et al. Isolation of a Dengue 1997–98 ......................................................... 30 Type 1 Virus from a Soldier in West Africa (Côte d’Ivoire) ................ 83 Research J.P. Durand et al. Carbapenem-Hydrolyzing Norwalk-Like Calicivirus Genes in W.H.M. van der Poel Metallo-ß-Lactamase from Farm Animals ............................................... 36 et al. a Nosocomial Isolate of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in France ........................ 84 L. Poirel et al. Population-Based Study of Invasive Kingella kingae Infections........................ 85 P. Yagupsky and R. Dagan Involving Ornithologists in the Surveillance of Vancomycin-Resistant Enterococci ..................... 87 M. Sellin et al. The opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or the institutions with which the authors are affiliated. Volume 6, Number 1 January–February 2000 Dispatches Another Dimension Molecular Genetic The Philosophic Origins of Science and N.C. Myrianthopoulos Evidence of a Novel the Evolution of the Two Cultures .............. 77 Morbillivirus in a Long-Finned Pilot Whale (Globicephalus News and Notes melas) ................................ 42 J.K. Taubenberger et al. 2nd International Candida dubliniensis Conference on AIDS in Fungemia: the India, December 1999 .................................. 89 First Four Cases in Workshop on Micro- North America .................. 46 nutrients and Infectious Diseases ............... 89 ew M.E. Brandt et al. Third Annual Conference on Vaccine Integronlike Structures Research ........................................................ 91 in Campylobacter spp. of Human and Animal Dangerous Pathogens 2000 Origin ................................ 50 Conference .................................................... 91 B. Lucey et al. International Conference ............................. 91 Burkholderia pseudomallei on Emerging Infectious Diseases Traced to Water Treatment Plant in Australia ............. 56 Reviewers ...................................................... 93 T.J.J. Inglis et al. Molecular Typing of Multidrug-Resistant Salmonella Blockley Outbreak Isolates from Greece................................ 60 P.T. Tassios et al. Risk Factors for Carriage of Neisseria meningitidis during an Outbreak in Wales ................................. 65 The journal is distributed electronically and in hard copy and is available at no charge. P.E. Fitzpatrick et al. YES, I would like to receive Emerging Infectious Diseases. Salmonellosis in the Republic of Georgia: Using Please print your name and business address in the box and Molecular Typing to return by fax to 404-371-5449 or Identify the Outbreak- mail to Causing Strain .................. 70 EID Editor A. Sulakvelidze et al. CDC/NCID/MS D61 1600 Clifton Road, NE First Report of Q Fever in Atlanta, GA 30333 Oman ................................. 74 E.M. Scrimgeour et al. Moving? Please give us your new address (in the box) and print the number of your old mailing label here__________ Perspectives From Shakespeare to Defoe: Malaria in England in the Little Ice Age Paul Reiter Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico Present global temperatures are in a warming phase that began 200 to 300 years ago. Some climate models suggest that human activities may have exacerbated this phase by raising the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Discussions of the potential effects of the weather include predictions that malaria will emerge from the tropics and become established in Europe and North America. The complex ecology and transmission dynamics of the disease, as well as accounts of its early history, refute such predictions. Until the second half of the 20th century, malaria was endemic and widespread in many temperate regions, with major epidemics as far north as the Arctic Circle. From 1564 to the 1730s—the coldest period of the Little Ice Age—malaria was an important cause of illness and death in several parts of England. Transmission began to decline only in the 19th century, when the present warming trend was well under way. The history of the disease in England underscores the role of factors other than temperature in malaria transmission. The earth’s climate has always been in a coming century, although the contribution of state of change. The past 250 to 300 years have human-induced greenhouse gases to global seen a fairly steady warming trend. Average temperatures is far from clear (4-6). temperatures are now approaching those at the Discussions of the potential impact of height of the Medieval Warm Period, near the human-induced global warming frequently end of the 12th century. The intervening include malaria, a disease widely perceived as centuries included a much colder period, the tropical. Articles in the popular and scientific Little Ice Age, by far the most important climatic press have predicted that warmer temperatures fluctuation in recent history (1). Such fluctua- will result in malaria transmission in Europe tions, spanning several generations, are natural and North America (7-12). Such predictions, phenomena that have recurred several times in often based on simple computer models, overlook the past 10,000 years. They take place against a malaria’s history; until recently, malaria was backdrop of episodes of longer duration and endemic and common in many temperate greater impact, such as the last Ice Age regions, and major epidemics extended as far (1,600,000 to 10,000 years ago). In recent years, north as the Arctic Circle (13). Despite the there has been growing concern that human disappearance of the disease from most of these activities may be modifying the natural climate. regions, the indigenous mosquitoes that trans- A decline in temperatures from the 1940s to the mitted it were never eliminated and remain late 1970s gave rise to warnings that industrial common in some areas. Thus, although pollutants were causing global cooling (2,3). temperature is important in the transmission Subsequent warming has been attributed to dynamics of malaria, many other variables are of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon equal or greater importance. This article reviews dioxide produced by burning fossil fuels, and the history of the disease in a nontropical other greenhouse gases (4). Climate models country—England—during the coldest years of suggest that this trend could accelerate in the the Little Ice Age. Address for correspondence: Paul Reiter, Dengue Branch, The Little Ice Age Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2 Calle Casia, San Juan, Puerto Rico 00921-3200, USA; fax: 787-766-6596; e-mail: The 16th century is the first period for which [email protected]. we have a reliable history of climate and Vol. 6, No. 1, January–February 20001 Emerging Infectious Diseases Perspectives weather. Private diaries, ships’ logs, accounts of landing their kayaks in Scotland. Large tracts of military campaigns, and similar sources give land, particularly at higher latitudes and descriptions of wind direction, wind speed, cloud altitudes, had to be abandoned. In many years, formations, and other weather indicators. snowfall was much heavier than recorded before Precisely dated annals, chronicles, audited or since, and the snow lay on the ground for accounts, agricultural records, tax ledgers, and many months longer than it does today. Many other archival material provide indirect informa- springs and summers were outstandingly cold tion, particularly on extreme weather events, and wet, although there was great variability such as droughts, floods, or unusual cold. between years and groups of years. Crop Additional evidence is available from glacial practices throughout Europe had to be altered to moraines, lake and ocean sediments, pollen adapt to the shortened, less reliable growing strata, deposits of insects, tree rings, coral season, and there were many years of dearth and structure, radiometric analysis of ice cores, famine. Violent storms caused massive flooding archaeologic sites, and many other sources. All and loss of life. Some of these resulted in this information can be combined to reconstruct permanent losses of large tracts of land from the past climates (Figure 1). Danish, German, and Dutch coasts. The dramatic cooling was captured in the paintings of the Flemish artist Pieter Bruegel (c. 1525-1569), who initiated a new genre by completing at least seven winter landscapes in 2 years (Figure