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Initiating Coverage CMP : INR ---- Target : INR ----- Rating : April 8, 2009 Initiating Coverage CMP : INR ---- Target : INR ----- Rating : ------- KEY DATA ------------------------ Market Cap (Rs bn) - Market Cap (US$ mn) - 52 WK High / Low - HIGHLIGHTS Avg Daily Volume (BSE) - Face Value (Rs) - Credit BSE Sensex - Nifty - BSE Code - NSE Code - Reuters Code - Bloomberg Code - Shareholding % 1Q 2Q 3Q Promoters MF/Banks/Indian FIs FII/ NRIs/ OCBs Indian Public CONTENTS Business growth outlook ........................................................................................ 2 Performance Chart Financials (INR bn.) F08 F09E F10E NII PPP PAT ABV Shruti Udeshi Analyst Tel. : 4000 2641 [email protected] FINQUEST research also available on BLOOMBERG FSPL <GO> and REUTERS. For Private Circulation Only PARTICULARS FY08 FY09E FY10E FY11E Company Description Valuation Ratios (X) Bank of Baroda P/E 6.2 4.7 4.5 4.1 www.bankofbaroda.com P/BV 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 P/ABV 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 Per Share Data EPS 39.3 51.5 54.0 59.3 BVPS 302.1 342.3 383.9 430.7 AVPS 247.1 290.3 322.7 362.1 Key Management Personnel DPS 9.1 10.0 11.0 11.0 Mr. M. D. Mallya P&L (INR mn) Chairman & Managing Director NII 39,118 48,443 53,304 60,752 Mr. V. Shanthanaraman Non Interest income 20,510 25,333 22,812 25,333 Executive Director Non interest income (ex-treasury) 15,188 18,183 18,612 21,833 Total Income 59,628 73,776 76,116 86,085 Operating Expenses 29,343 34,586 37,810 42,117 Pre-Provisioning Profits 30,286 39,190 38,306 43,968 PBT 22,072 28,012 30,356 33,340 Tax 7,716 10,137 10,624 11,669 PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) PAT 14,355 18,825 19,731 21,671 3 M 6 M 12 M Earnings Quality (%) Absolute 0.6 (24.5) (37.9) Net Interest Margin 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 Relative 17.0 (3.3) (20.6) Yield on advances 8.8 9.4 9.0 8.9 Yield on investments 6.9 6.6 6.4 6.3 Cost of deposits 5.3 5.6 5.5 5.4 Cost/Income 49.2 46.9 49.7 48.9 Return on Average Net Worth 12.4 14.1 14.0 14.6 Return on Average Assets 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 Valuation Thesis Asset Quality (%) We have Gross NPA 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.1 Net NPA 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 Growth Rates (%) NII 9.3 23.8 10.0 14.0 Non Interest income 48.4 23.5 (10.0) 11.1 Non interest Income(Ex-treasury) 21.9 19.7 2.4 17.3 PPP 25.4 29.4 (2.3) 14.8 PAT 39.8 31.1 4.8 9.8 Balance Sheet (INR mn) Networth 110,439 125,132 140,317 157,442 Deposits 1,520,341 1,870,020 2,244,024 2,670,388 Borrowings 93,498 94,237 94,986 98,813 Other Liabilities 71,717 80,314 90,155 100,688 Total Liabilities 1,795,995 2,169,703 2,569,481 3,027,332 Cash in hand & bal with RBI 93,697 102,851 123,421 146,871 Balance with Banks, Money at call 129,296 140,251 159,326 197,609 Investments 438,701 519,258 593,913 684,589 Advances 1,067,013 1,339,102 1,620,313 1,920,071 Fixed Assets (net) 24,270 26,212 30,143 34,665 Other Assets 43,018 42,029 42,365 43,527 Total assets 1,795,995 2,169,703 2,569,481 3,027,332 April 6, 2009 For Private Circulation Only 2 Investment Summary Traction in power business… 390 MW added in FY09 The Company has charted out aggressive growth plans for the addition of 10,000 MW of generation capacity in the next five years. During FY09, TPC added about 390 MW of generation capacity comprising 120 MW at Haldia, 250 MW at Trombay and 52 MW of wind capacity. Haldia will be able to export over 600 million units of power per annum on merchant basis after meeting its commitments to the West Bengal State Electricity Board. In addition to this, 100 MW of 250 MW Unit 8 in Trombay will be sold through Tata Power Trading on merchant-basis as per the PPA signed between the two. In FY10E, TPC will sell over 1200 million units on merchant-basis from these plants at higher rates in view of the power demand-supply mismatch. With the commissioning of above capacities, we expect the revenue of the standalone power business to witness a CAGR growth of … % Source : Financial Closure of Mundra and Maithon achieved… execution on schedule Tata Power has completed financing for two of its largest power plants under construction, 4,000 MW Mundra UMPP in Gujarat and 1,050 MW Maithon Right Bank Thermal Power Project in JV with Damodar Valley Corporation. For Mundra, the company has tied up to raise USD 1.8 billion in foreign exchange loans and INR 58 billion rupee loan with several multilateral and domestic financial institutions. The financing terms of the loan seems attractive with rupee debt tied up at 200bps below SBI PLR, for a 15 year bullet repayment loan. The work of both the projects is on schedule. 13% and 21% work completed at Mundra and Maithon respectively. TPC is expected to commission first unit of Maithon Power Project (525 MW) and Mundra UMPP (800MW) in March 2010 and September 2011 respectively. We expect Mundra Project to earn a RoE in the range of 16-17%. Though the management has not disclosed the price at which the coal offtake agreement has been signed with KPC, the management indicated that the prices of imported coal from the Indonesian mines hovered at ~ USD 45/MT at the time of the agreement. However, for our valuation we have assumed a higher price of USD 70/MT to cover the transportation cost and index-linked price variation. We arrive at a Fair value of INR… for the Mundra project based on DCF methodology. We value the Maithon Power project at INR…. 1x its Book Value. We would look at valuing the project based on DCF methodology once there is some clarity on the key operational parameters and the rates at which the company has signed the PPAs. April 6, 2009 For Private Circulation Only 3 Project Details - Mundra & Maithon Project Stake Estimated Cost D:E Financial Closure (%) (INR billion) Maithon 74% 44.5 70:30 Done with INR 31.2 bn funding from SBI Mundra 100% 170 75:25 Done with INR 42bn equity, USD 1.8bn forex loan and USD 1.4bn Rupee loan Coal Mine Operations… sufficient cash flow to cover operating costs Tata Power acquired 30% equity in Indonesian Coal Mines, PT Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC) and PT Arutmin Indonesia, from PT Bumi Resources at a value of USD 1.1 billion. Tata Power has received USD 222 million in the current year to date from as cash surplus from its investments in mines, compared to USD 45 million for half year CY07. The company has utilised the same for repayment of debt at the SPV level and will continue to do so going forward. As on Dec 2008, the outstanding debt at the SPV level stands at USD 850 million which is expected to further come down to USD 755 million by March 2009. The management believes that with the fall in crude prices, the mining costs have come down and the current coal prices are still healthy to cover the operating costs of the mines, while throwing some surplus for the company. We believe the company will gradually increase its production to 95MT per year by CY14 from 55MT per year in CY07. With long-term coal price assumption at USD 50/MT, we arrive at a Fair Value of INR… for TPC's investments in the mines. Source : Stake in Indonesian coal mines … enhancing Fuel Security Tata Power would require 21 mt of imported coal for fuelling its 7,000-MW capacity addition plan over the next five years. The 4,000-MW Mundra project would require about 11-12 mtpa, while the rest would be required for its other projects, including its project in Trombay (2-3 mtpa) and a coastal project coming up in Maharashtra (6-7 mtpa). Tata Power has signed an offtake agreement with KPC, which entitles it to purchase about 10.1 million tonnes (± 20%, at TPC's option) of coal beginning 2009 up to 2021 and extendable thereafter. The company intends to divert this coal to fulfill 100% fuel requirement of Mundra. For the first five year period, 25% of the offtake quantity will be supplied at a fixed price (undisclosed) while the rest of the quantity will be supplied at index-linked prices i.e. market price. Further, it has a 10-year sourcing agreement with Adaro Mines to meet its fuel supply at Trombay Unit 8. This would cover the ~65% of the company's requirement of imported coal till 2014. The company is further looking at opportunities for securing additional supplies to fulfill its requirement for Coastal Maharshtra (Debrand) Project by way of purchasing equity in mines and entering into offtake contracts. April 6, 2009 For Private Circulation Only 4 Sufficient cash and investments to fund equity gap The total fund requirement for the projects under construction is about INR 231 billion upto March 2012, of which about around INR 180 billion would be funded through debt and INR 51 billion through equity.
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