NEGATIVE [Unchanged]
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January 10, 2016 Malaysia Property NEGATIVE [Unchanged] Batu Kawan is shining, again Analyst Embracing the second wave of growth The completed/soon-to-be completed catalytic projects — Design Village Wong Wei Sum, CFA Penang (end-Nov 2016) and IKEA Penang store (end-2018) — are expected (603) 2297 8679 [email protected] to bring in the second wave of growth in Batu Kawan (BK). These flagship projects would create job opportunities and serve as a population catchment, boosting property demand in BK. Beneficiaries include Tambun Indah, Eco World and Paramount. Having said that, demand on BK properties has been dragged by the current slowdown in the local property market due to macro headwinds and buyers credit quality. Real Estate 2018-2019, the tipping point We expect the second wave of growth in BK to materialize with the completion of a few growth catalytic projects including IKEA Penang store (late 2018), Design Village Penang (soft opening in end-2016) and KDU Penang University College (2Q 2019). In our view, Batu Kawan (BK) properties stand a good chance to experience a similar price uptrend as Iskandar Malaysia after the completion of these few catalytic projects there. Thus far, BK properties have recorded an average price growth of 10-20% from 2013 to 2015. This is despite the slowdown in the domestic Malaysia property market which started in 2014. Entry of big players is a testament to BK’s prospects The entry of key property players in BK is a testament to BK’s long-term prospects. Paramount (PAR MK; Not Rated) has acquired 44 acres of freehold land in BK in 2014 while Eco World has acquired 76 acres at Simpang Ampat in 2014 and further strengthened its foothold by buying another 374.6 acres of leasehold land in BK in June 2016. These two Klang Valley-based developers have strong followings from previous buyers of their properties. Their investments in BK should help to raise the profile of BK in the domestic front and investing community. The beneficiaries While we remain NEGATIVE on the property sector due to persisting macro headwinds and continuous stringent lending by the banks in scrutinizing buyers’ credit quality, property prices in BK could be among the early ones to rise when the market recovers. Tambun Indah (TILB MK; initiate coverage with a HOLD) is poised to be the biggest beneficiary from rising commercial activities in BK, followed by Eco World (ECW MK; BUY) and Paramount (PAR MK; Not rated). Stock Bloomberg Mkt cap Rating Price TP Upside P/E (x) P/B (x) Div yld (%) code (USD'm) (LC) (LC) (%) 16E 17E 16E 17E 16E 17E SP Setia SPSB MK 2,033 Hold 3.19 3.63 14 12.0 9.3 0.7 0.7 4.9 6.0 Sunway SWB MK 1,378 Hold 2.99 3.37 13 10.6 10.0 0.7 0.7 2.8 3.0 UEM Sunrise UEMS MK 1,115 Hold 1.10 1.10 (0) 39.4 23.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.2 Eco World Dev ECW MK 843 Buy 1.35 1.56 16 24.8 21.5 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 Mah Sing Group MSGB MK 786 Hold 1.46 1.47 0 11.6 10.8 1.1 1.0 3.5 3.7 Tambun Indah TILB MK 134 Hold 1.40 1.53 9 5.9 7.5 1.2 1.1 6.7 5.3 Glomac GLMC MK 113 Hold 0.70 0.82 18 7.1 7.4 0.5 0.4 5.8 4.1 THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY MAYBANK INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD PP16832/01/2013 (031128) SEE PAGE 14 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Malaysia Property Batu Kawan, poised for a 2nd wave of growth Rising land prices in Batu Kawan We believe Batu Kawan (BK), the third satellite town of George Town, Penang (after Bayan Lepas and Seberang Jaya), is poised for a second wave of growth. The first wave was in 2013-2014 when accessibility and connectivity to BK improved tremendously after the official opening of the Sultan Abdul Halim Muadzam Shah Bridge (Penang second bridge). The Penang second bridge, which connects Batu Maung on Penang island to Batu Kawan on the mainland, has helped to accelerate the development of BK and transform it into a residential/commercial/industrial area, from pure agricultural land previously. The tremendous change is reflected in the land price, which rose at a CAGR of 24% from 1992 to 2016 (source: I&T Properties, companies’ announcements). Penang second bridge which links Batu Maung (island) to Batu Kawan (mainland) Batu Maung Batu Kawan Source: Google January 10, 2016 2 Malaysia Property Land transactions in Batu Kawan – land price has risen at 24% CAGR from 1992 to 2016 Year Transacted price (MYR Remarks psf) 1992 0.34 Compulsory acquisition of 5,260 acres by the Penang State Government at MYR15,000 per acre 2002 3.52 Land purchase of 750 acres by Abad Naluri S/B from Penang Development Corp (PDC) 2009/2010 8-10 Land acquisition process began on private lands in the Batu Kawan locality affected by the Second Penang Bridge alignment and road linkages to North South Highway and were awarded compensation at a rate of MYR8-10psf. 2011 30 Announcement of an industrial park catering for SME with 150 acres to be established at the Batu Kawan Industrial Park and 67 acres for SMEs opened for sale as backbone for solar and renewable energy industries. 2012 15.3 The purchase of 87 acres of industrial land by Robert Bosch at MYR58m 2013 37.9 39.5 acres of land deal between PDC and developer PE Land S/B for the construction of a premium retail outlet, hotel, cafes and F&B outlets 2013 35.0 The purchase of 76.5 acres of land in Simpang Ampat by Eco World for MYR116m. 2014 45.3 The sale of 245 acres of land for the purpose of development of an integrated shopping mall, anchored by an IKEA store and mixed development of offices and residences jointly developed by Aspen-Ikano. 2014 40.5 - 55 Paramount bought about 44 acres of land in Batu Kawan. 2016 44 – 56 Eco World has proposed to buy 374.6 acres of leasehold land in Batu Kawan Source: I&T Property, media reports, companies announcements Completion of flagship projects to boost property demand We expect the second wave of growth in BK to materialize with the completion of a few growth catalytic projects including IKEA Penang store, Design Village Penang, KDU Penang University College and Columbia Asia Hospital. The upcoming IKEA Penang store (1.2m sq.ft.; 100%-owned by Ikano; located at the Aspen Vision City project, 80% owned by Aspen Group [unlisted] and 20% by Ikano Pte Ltd, with a GDV of MYR8b-10b) is slated for opening by late 2018 while Design Village Penang (a 400,000 sq.ft. mall which is owned by unlisted PE Land Sdn Bhd) had already conducted a soft opening in end-Nov 2016. Elsewhere, Columbia Asia Sdn Bhd is investing MYR185m for a new hospital with 150 beds in Batu Kawan. As for KDU Penang University College (10.5-acre flagship campus) by Paramount Corp (PAR MK; Not Rated), the college will be ready by 2Q19. We understand the campus can accommodate up to 5,000 students. Apart from these, based on the master development plan of BK, future developments could also comprise theme park, golf course and beach resort (no timeline is given on these future developments at this juncture). In our view, these commercial activities, including support industries such as hotels and restaurants in BK, will serve as an immediate population catchment and consequently boost demand for properties in BK. January 10, 2016 3 Malaysia Property Developments (future/under constructions) in Batu Kawan Source: Google, property forum January 10, 2016 4 Malaysia Property Hijau E-Komuniti Phase 1 of Hijau E-Komuniti is under construction Source: Maybank Kim Eng Source: Maybank Kim Eng The site for Aspen Group’s Aspen Vision City in Batu Kawan The site for IKEA Penang store Source: Maybank Kim Eng Source: Maybank Kim Eng Penang Designer Village Soft opening of Penang Designer Village on 23 Nov 2016 Source: Maybank Kim Eng Source: Maybank Kim Eng January 10, 2016 5 Malaysia Property Huge long-term growth potentials Penang island-Batu Kawan akin to Hong Kong-Shenzhen In our view, Penang island - Batu Kawan (mainland) is a tad similar to the Hong Kong – Shenzhen situation, with a huge disparity in property prices. Unlike the relationship between Iskandar Malaysia (which is in Malaysia) and Singapore, Batu Kawan and Penang island are governed by the same authority, thus allowing for the better synchronization of development plans. Given the high density and land prices on Penang island, BK can well serve a spillover of manufacturing and residential hub from the island. To illustrate the disparity in property values, current asking prices for a newly-launched mid-end apartment on the island range between MYR650-800psf (with a few high-end condominiums hitting MYR1,300-1,500psf [net]), vs MYR330-400psf in the Simpang Ampat - Batu Kawan area (Simpang Ampat is a 15 minute drive from Batu Kawan). Similar to the initial years of Shenzhen and Iskandar Malaysia, BK has yet to reach its critical mass at the moment due to the lack of commercial activity. But it is just a matter of time before this happens. BK should breakthrough and gain more traction with the completion of the afore-mentioned flagship projects in 2016- 2019 and property prices over there should play catch-up over time.