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Financial Feasibility Study 2/5/2018 FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY STUDY Limited Service Hotel U. S. Highway 377, Pilot Point, Texas 76258 P.O. Box 120055 ♦ 134 Laurel Heights ♦ San Antonio, Texas 78212 ♦ (210) 734.3434 ♦ SourceStrategies.org Page 1 of 101 February 5, 2018 FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY STUDY: Limited Service Hotel U.S. Highway 377, Pilot Point, Texas 76258 This study has been prepared to determine the financial feasibility of building and operating an 55 unit limited service hotel along U.S. Highway 377, in Pilot Point, Texas. For the purposes of this study, we have selected the currently available brand of Best Western as the brand for the subject. A site along U.S. 377, in Pilot Point, is expected to be used for this project, and will provide good access to area highways and amenities, and good visibility. Project quality is assumed to match the physical and operating standards of the Best Western brand. This is a product of Best Western International. All projections herein are based on operating this hotel as a Best Western, or like brand, and retaining the brand in good standing at the time of an assumed sale after 10 years. Assumed market acceptance for a Best Western has been quantified versus market averages, and has been used in developing this study. Operating costs are set at the level of similar hotels in the region. KEY FINDING: Building and operating a Best Western hotel at this site should generate an unleveraged, pre-tax return on total invested capital of 14%, with a return on equity of 36% (DCF). This return on invested capital also assumes that improvements are completed at the estimated cost of $85,000 per unit, plus $425,000 for land. This is a good hotel investment. Project details follow: PO Box 120055 134 Laurel Heights, San Antonio, TX 78212 210-734-3434 Fax 210-735-7970 www.SourceStrategies.Org Page 2 of 101 Total Investment Land Value $ 425,000 Improvements Budget $ 4,675,000 @ $85,000 per key1 Total Investment $ 5,100,000 Pre-Tax Project Return 14.00%2 Pre-Tax Return on Equity 36.17%3 This study incorporates the current downturn in the Texas hotel market, the rebound from the recent national recession which began in late 2008, and the continued impact of the Permian Basin and the Eagle Ford Shale Oil and Gas developments and the hotel market’s response to lower oil prices. In our Market section, we highlight the historical hotel performance in Texas, noting the effect of past recessions. Consequently, our market projections consider how the lodging industry reacts in times of economic downturn and in normal times. See the Market section for details. With projections beginning in July 2019, cash flow market projections for the Best Western Pilot Point, before taxes and after renovation reserves, should be available for debt service, income tax and dividends as follows: PROJECT SUMMARY Occupancy Average $ Total Percent $ Rate REVPAR Revenue CashFlow** Year I 61.1% $84.65 $51.72 $1,072,441 $443,915 Year II 70.2% $88.02 $61.83 $1,282,177 $540,883 Year III 72.6% $91.55 $66.44 $1,377,805 $587,781 Year IV 71.7% $95.92 $68.77 $1,426,029 $615,978 Year V 72.0% $98.80 $71.17 $1,475,939 $637,826 Year VI 71.7% $100.77 $72.26 $1,498,473 $642,278 Year VII 71.6% $102.28 $73.18 $1,517,652 $642,649 Year VIII 71.4% $103.81 $74.12 $1,537,076 $642,807 Year IX 71.6% $104.85 $75.07 $1,556,750 $640,303 Year X 71.7% $105.91 $75.90 $1,573,872 $8,270,776*** *Year I ADR equates to approximately $82 in current market dollars.** Before Income Tax & Financing expense, but reflecting $751,706 in reserves for capital expenditures/property renovation ($13,667 per unit). ***Assumes valuing property at Year 10 cash flow at an 8% return-to-buyer, less 4% expense of sale, plus year 10 cash flow. 1. Developer estimates of purchase price and of development costs. 2. After reserve for on-going renovations. 3. Assuming 30% equity and 70% debt at a 4.5% pre-tax debt cost; calculated weighted average. Page 3 of 101 The above cash flow, assuming a Year 10 sale, has been discounted at the rate of 14% to a present value of $5,100,972, essentially equaling the total budgeted investment of $5,100,000. This 14% is the project's unleveraged return, provided capital costs are kept at this level. An estimated capital budget for purchase of the hotel, excluding land, of $85,000 per unit 'turn-key' costs for a hotel of this size and quality is average for a new Best Western hotel, in our experience, and reasonable. If capital outlays vary from the current budget for this project, returns will vary accordingly. The following table illustrates the linear nature of financial returns as capital requirements escalate or decline and revenue streams remain stable. Effect on Returns if Capital Investment Changes4 Improvements Budget Land Total Discounted Cash Flow Variance Per Unit Total Cost Investment Total Proj On Equity (85%) $72.3 $3,974 $425 $4,399 16.54% 44.63% (90%) $76.5 $4,208 $425 $4,633 15.64% 41.63% (95%) $80.8 $4,441 $425 $4,866 14.79% 38.80% BUDGET $85.0 $4,675 $425 $5,100 14.00% 36.17% (105%) $89.3 $4,909 $425 $5,334 13.26% 33.70% (110%) $93.5 $5,143 $425 $5,568 12.57% 31.40% (115%) $97.7 $5,376 $425 $5,801 11.91% 29.20% 4. Discounted Cash Flow / Internal Rate of Return. Page 4 of 101 The first stabilized year of operation (Year III) returns the following results: Year III 2021/2022 Room Revenues $1,333,790 Total Revenues $1,377,805 Income Before Fixed Costs $ 717,003 (52.0%) Net Income Before Tax & Fin. $ 540,244 (39.2%) Cash Flow Before Financing $ 587,781 (42.7%)5 Occupancy % 72.6% Average Daily Rate $ 91.55 $ REVPAR $ 66.44 Per Occupied Room Cost $ 42.42 The critical statistic used in this study is REVPAR. REVPAR means revenue per available room per day, and reflects the average daily room revenue yield of every room in a property or market (not just occupied rooms). REVPAR is generated by multiplying occupancy times rate (i.e. REVPAR = % occupancy times average daily rate), and is the most effective and important tool in the evaluation of the success of any lodging concern. SUMMARY OF CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS: Assumptions are summarized as follows (see page 11 for full Market History and Projection study, and page 7 for Methodology): 1. An analysis of the local Pilot Point area market6 reflect a mixture of a number of older and oversized hotels, as well as a significant amount new and competitive lodging products. The average hotel room in the local market is over 17 years old, past the typical peak performance of the first ten years of operation. The typical hotel building becomes stylistically and structurally obsolete after 30+ years, though this life cycle is significantly longer for high-rise/concrete structures. Out of 2,000 total rooms currently in the selected local market, only 94 rooms have opened since 2010, with 620 rooms built before 1989, making this a very old and vulnerable group of hotels. We are comfortable with market projections, and expect market demand growth levels in the area to rise slowly over the next nine years from the current growth levels. After reduced results in the past 24 months, demand growth is expected to return to more typical levels, while occupancy is expected to fall before reaching an equilibrium level of 60% by 2022. Local market REVPAR is projected to 5. Before deductions of loan principal and interest, before income tax deductions, and before any equity payout. 6. Zip Codes 76258/272/240/266/207/210/208/240/250/273. Page 5 of 101 rise by 2.5% annually in the next five years (versus a 5.1% average growth rate per year in each of the last nine years). Detailed local market history and projections commence on page 19. PILOT POINT AREA MARKET7 Year8 Occupancy % $ REVPAR 2008 57.6% $ 33.80 2011 58.1% $ 36.47 2013 61.3% $ 41.72 2015 64.1% $ 49.02 2017 63.5% $ 51.889 Projected 2018 62.7% $ 54.00 2020 60.7% $ 56.15 2025 59.8% $ 65.41 Historical Annual Compound Growth Rates Past 9 Year Average 1.3% 5.1% Past 4 Year Average 1.0% 5.9% Past 1 Year Average -1.6% 1.8% Future Annual Compound Growth Rates Next 9 Years -0.7% 2.9% Next 5 Years -1.2% 2.5% 2. Versus the local market's REVPAR dollar projection the REVPAR index of the Best Western starts at 93% of the local market, rising to a plateau in Years III-V of 114% of the market. Thereafter, the REVPAR Index declines due to the normal aging cycle. Detailed REVPAR derivation and subsequent projections commence on page 29. Best Western, Product Derivation Data in 2017 $'s Year I Year II Year III Base: Name & Quality 1.08 1.08 1.08 x Brand Age Adjustment 1.12 1.12 1.12 x Site Value Adjustment 0.81 0.81 0.81 x Size Adjustment 1.04 1.04 1.04 x Other Adjustments 1.00 1.00 1.00 x Newness Adjustment 0.92 1.07 1.12 = Performance Factor 93% 109% 114% x Market REVPAR $51.88 $51.88 $51.88 = Projected Performance $48.46 $56.37 $59.00 7.
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