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Networks, Complexity and Internet Regulation Scale-Free Law Andres Guadamuz Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Publication(PhD) The University of Edinburgh February 2013 The candidate confirms that the work submitted is his/her own and that appropriate credit has been given where reference has been made to the work of others. © Andrés Guadamuz 2013 Some rights reserved. This work is Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. Contents Figures and Tables ix Figures ix Tables x Abbreviations xi Cases xv Acknowledgments xvii License xix Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported xix 1. Introduction 1 A short history of psychohistory 3 Objectives 10 Some notes on methodology 13 2. The Science of Complex Networks 15 1. The network science revolution 16 2. Network science 22 2.1 Power laws 22 2.2 Scale-free networks 26 2.3 Pareto distributions and Zipf laws 30 2.4 Small worlds and social networks 35 2.5 Network resilience 40 iv Networks, Complexity and Internet Regulation 3. Complexity and self-organisation 41 3.1 Complexity 41 3.2 Self-organisation 46 3. Complexity and the Law 53 1. Network theory and the law 55 2. Self-organisation and the law 64 2.1 Theoretical approaches 64 2.2 Finding self-organisation in legal systems 70 3. Complexity and existing legal theories 72 4. A new legal theory of complex systems? 76 4. Internet Architecture and Regulation 83 1. The Internet 85 2. The laws of Cyberspace 90 3. Regulating strategies 99 3.1 Technocracy 99 3.2 Cyber-libertarians 101 3.3 Architecture and Code 105 3.4 Regulating the gateways 108 3.5 Complex regulatory networks 112 4. Towards a regulation theory of the self-organising Internet 115 5. Copyright Networks 121 1. Pareto and the super-star effect 123 2. The Long Tail 130 2.1 The rise of the long tail 130 Contents v 2.2 Long tail or tall tales? 135 3. Peer-to-peer 138 3.1 Brief introduction to the technology 138 3.2 P2P and network theory 142 4. Copyright implications of network theory 147 4.1 Towards a long tail copyright policy 148 4.2 Copyright, networks and P2P 156 6. Peer-production Networks 169 1. The rise of peer-production and the user-generated world 171 1.2 Defining peer-production 171 1.2 Clash of cultures 175 2. Open licensing 181 2.1 Defining openness 182 2.2 Free and open source software 184 2.3 Open content 187 3. Complexity in open licensing 190 3.1 Open self-organisation 190 3.2 Open scale-free networks 197 3.3 Open licences, social clusters and fitness 201 4. Pareto revisited 206 4.1 Measuring the UGC ecology 207 4.2 Copyright policy implications 214 7. Cybercrime and Networks 217 vi Networks, Complexity and Internet Regulation 1. Cybercrime 218 2. Network centrality 225 3. Social network analysis 234 4. Network theory and cybercrime 240 4.1 Centrality and vulnerability 240 4.2 Social network analysis and cybercrime 246 5. A new Internet? 254 8. Conclusion 261 1. A Tale of Two Internets 261 2. Self-organisation theory of Internet regulation 265 3. Future research 268 4. A final word on reductionism 270 Critical Review 277 Abstract 277 1. Summary 278 2. Aims and objectives 279 3. Methodology 280 3.1. Future research 281 4. Conclusions 282 5. Contribution 285 5.1 The importance of evidence-based policy-making 287 5.2 Centrality and copyright enforcement 292 5.3 Resilience 299 5.4 Privacy 307 Contents vii 6. The debate between an open and closed internet 315 Bibliography 319 References for the Critical review 355 Index 361 Figures and Tables FIGURES 1.1 Fields of science according to purity 4 2.1 Graphical representation of the Königsberg bridge problem 18 2.2 Random spread of information 19 2.3 A selection of normal distribution probability curves 23 2.4 Power law distribution of city populations 24 2.5 Logarithmic representation of power law in US cities 25 2.6 Random (left) and scale-free network (right) 28 2.7 A typical Pareto distribution 31 2.8 Small world network as compared to normal and random ones 37 2.9 Fitness landscapes, where A, B and C describe fitness peaks 44 2.10 Phase transition of colloids in space 50 3.1 Conway’s Game of Life. 54 3.2 Power law distribution of US Federal cases 58 3.3 Small-world clustering in patent class citations 61 3.4 Social network structure of the US Federal judiciary 69 3.5 Regulatory failure 81 4.1 Central (top) and distributed (bottom) networks 87 4.2 Map of the Internet 92 4.3 Lessig’s regulatory matrix 106 4.4 Map of the global Internet backbone 110 4.5 Murray’s ICANN regulatory matrix 113 x Networks, Complexity and Internet Regulation 5.1 Share of total ticket revenue accruing to top performers, 1982–2003 126 5.2 Long tail versus Pareto 131 5.3 A typical BitTorrent swarm 140 5.4 Long tail of tracker sites? 146 6.1 Social network representation of Linux 202 6.2 Network of works produced in the ccMixter community 205 6.3 Internet use according to Nielsen 208 6.4 Technorati’s top 75 blogs 210 6.5 Visits versus user participation in Wikipedia 213 7.1 Graph betweenness 227 7.2 Internet city-to-city backbone connections 231 7.3 The US political blogosphere 240 7.4 Strong country centrality (zoomed) 243 7.5 Phone call network of Operation Crevice surveillance 252 8.1 The Egyptian Internet shuts down 264 9.1 Mapping physical centrality 295 9.2 Top hosting companies in the world 297 9.3 Websites are not the same as backbone systems 302 9.4 The location of the “thirteen” root servers 304 TABLES 6.1 Production cost estimate for the five largest FOSS software products 193 9.1 Country-wise Domains Distribution: Domain Names by Country of Purchase. 296 9.2 Root Name Servers. 302 Abbreviations ARPANET Advanced Research Projects Agency Network AS Autonomous System CAS Complex Adaptive System CC Creative Commons CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research DDoS Distributed Denial of Service DMCA Digital Millennium Copyright Act DNS Domain Name System DoS Denial of Service DS Dynamic Systems DVD Digital Video Disc ECD Electronic Commerce Directive EFF Electronic Frontiers Foundation EU European Union EUR Euro FOSS Free and Open Source Software GBP British Pound GPL General Public License GSCC Giant Strongly Connected Component HADOPI Haute Autorité pour la diffusion des oeuvres et la protection des droits sur Internet HTTP Hyper Text Transfer Protocol IAB Internet Architecture Board xii Networks, Complexity and Internet Regulation IANA Internet Assigned Numbers Authority ICANN Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers IESG Internet Engineering Steering Group IETF Internet Engineering Task Force IFPI International Federation of the Phonographic Industry IGF Internet Governance Forum IMPs Message Processors IP Internet Protocol IRC Internet Relay Chat ISOC Internet Society ISP Internet Service Provider IWF Internet Watch Foundation LAN Large Area Network P2P Peer-to-peer PING Packet InterNet Groper PRS Performing Right Society RIAA Recording Industry Association of America RO Read-Only RW Read/Write culture SCC Strong Country Centrality SLOC Single Lines of Code SMTP Send Mail Transfer Protocol SNA Social Network Analysis TCP Transmission Control Protocol UDP User Datagram Protocol UK United Kingdom UN United Nations US United States USD United States Dollar Abbreviations xiii USPTO United States Patent and Trademarks Office W3C Wide Web Consortium WCT WIPO Copyright Treaty WIPO World Intellectual Property Organization WSIS World Summit of the Information Society WWW World Wide Web Cases A&M Records v. Napster, 2002 U.S. App. LEXIS 4752. AdobeSystems Inc. v. Tripod Inc., No. 1:96CV157 (N.D. W.Va.). Arista Records LLC v. Lime Group LLC, 2010 U.S. Dist. LEXIS 46638. Authors Guild v Google Inc, (United States District Court for the Southern District of New York, Docket No 2005 CV 8136, filed September 20, 2005). Capitol Records, Inc. v. Thomas, 579 F. Supp. 2d 1210. Frank Music v. CompuServe Inc., No. 93 Civ. 8153 (S.D.N.Y. 1993). Gibbons v. Ogden 22 U.S. 1. In re Aimster Copyright Litig., 2004 U.S. App. LEXIS 1449. McCulloch v. Maryland 17 U.S. 316 McGraw-Hill Cos, Inc v Google Inc, (United States District Court for the Southern District of New York, Docket No 2005 CV 08881, filed October 19, 2005). Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Studios Inc. v. Grokster, Ltd., 125 S. Ct. 2764. Playboy Enterprises, Inc. v. Frena, 839 F. Supp. 1552 (M.D.Fla. 1993). Roadshow Films Pty Ltd v iiNet Limited [2010] FCA 24. Sabam V. S.A. Tiscali (Scarlet), District Court Of Brussels, No.