The Logic of Political Survival in Turkish Politics: the Case of AKP
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The Logic of Political Survival in Turkish Politics: The Case of AKP Caglar Ezikoglu Thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of PhD. Department of International Politics Aberystwyth University 29 March 2019 1 Mandatory Layout of Declaration/Statements Word Count of thesis: 83651 (Excluding Bibliography and Appendix) DECLARATION This work has not previously been accepted in substance for any degree and is not being concurrently submitted in candidature for any degree. Candidate name Caglar Ezikoglu Signature: Date 29 March 2019 STATEMENT 1 This thesis is the result of my own investigations, except where otherwise stated. Where *correction services have been used, the extent and nature of the correction is clearly marked in a footnote(s). Other sources are acknowledged by footnotes giving explicit references. A bibliography is appended. Signature: Date 29 March 2019 [*this refers to the extent to which the text has been corrected by others] STATEMENT 2 I hereby give consent for my thesis, if accepted, to be available for photocopying and for inter- library loan, and for the title and summary to be made available to outside organisations. Signature: Date 29 March 2019 2 NB: Candidates on whose behalf a bar on access (hard copy) has been approved by the University should use the following version of Statement 2: I hereby give consent for my thesis, if accepted, to be available for photocopying and for inter- library loans after expiry of a bar on access approved by Aberystwyth University. Signature: Date 29 March 2019 3 To my lovely wife, Kübra… 4 Acknowledgement Firstly, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisor Dr.Ayla Göl for the continuous support of my Ph.D study and related research, for her patience, motivation, and immense knowledge. Her guidance helped me in all the time of research and writing of this thesis. I could not have imagined having a better supervisor and mentor for my Ph.D study. I would like to thank to Dr.James Vaughan and Professor Mustapha Kamal Pasha, my current supervisor at Aberystwyth University. Their valuable comments during the revision period and his academic support before my PhD viva were very important for me to complete my thesis successfully. Besides my supervisors, I would like to thank the rest of my thesis committee: Dr.Jenny Mathers, Mr.Bill Park, and Dr.Anwen Elias, for their insightful comments and encouragement, but also for the hard question which incented me to widen my research from various perspectives. My sincere thanks also goes to my first supervisor, Dr.Burak Kadercan, who provided me an opportunity to focus on the concept of political survival in Turkish politics. I would like to special thank to my friend Mr.Umut Kadir Oğuz for his valuable support during my PhD at Aberystwyth University. To my family, thank you for your love, support, and unwavering belief in me. Above all I would like to thank my wife Kübra for her love and constant support, for all the late nights and early mornings, and for keeping me sane over the past few months. But most of all, thank you for being my best friend. I owe you everything. 5 Summary The thesis aims at exploring the logic of political survival in Turkish politics with analysing the case of Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi-AKP). This study consists of two stages. The research methodology and literature review of this research are examined in the first stage of this study. First, the literature of explanations concerning the logic of political survival in politics is explored. In the following section, case study analysis and elite interview methods are examined and reveal how they are combined in this study. The second stage is to explore the logic of political survival in Turkish politics with the AKP case by empirical evidence. This study also uses evidence from elite interviews, party documents, public speeches, and developments and changes for exploring AKP’s political survival in the next chapters. This evidence indicates that there are four independent variables of dependent variable which is AKP’s political survival; -- the legitimization of AKP’s conservatism (2002-2007), AKP’s power struggle with Kemalist elites (2007-2011), AKP’s populism and authoritarianism (2011-2014) and the instrumentalisation of Islamism and nationalism under Erdogan’s leadership (2014-2018) -- within the AKP’s four terms. In other words, this research offers a cause-and-effect mechanism between the four different policy approaches of the AKP’s four periods and the AKP’s political survival. Indeed, the AKP has been the most successful political party at the point of ensuring political survival throughout its 16-year rule. In the literature, there are few studies analysing the 16-year rule of AKP government integrally. As a result of this limitation, the original contribution of this research is that it offers a holistic approach of the AKP government between 2002 and 2018 with using the concept of political survival which is not explored for the AKP case in the literature. 6 CONTENT INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. 12 1.The General Context of the Research………………………………………………………..13 2. Research Question…………………………………………………………………………….15 3. Structure of the Thesis ................................................................................................. 15 Chapter 1: Literature Review and Methodological Issues ............................................... 19 1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………….19 2. Literature Review ........................................................................................................ 21 2.1. The Concept of Political Survival ………...………………………………………21 2.1.1. AKP’s Winning Coalition ………………………………………………………….27 2.1.2. The Concept of Selectorate Theory in Turkish Case…………………………...28 2.1.3. Critics of De Mesquita’s Selectorate Theory…………………………………….31 3. Research Methodology………………………………………………………………………37 3.1. Case-study Analysis………………………………………………………………..37 3.1.1. Case Study and Causal Mechanism….………………………………………….41 3.1.2. Case Study and Elite Interviewing………………………………………………..45 3.1.3. Intervening Variables in Causal Mechanisms……………………………………53 3.1.4. The Intervening Variables of This Research…………………………………….56 4. Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………..58 Chapter 2: First Term of AKP (2002-2007): The Legitimization of AKP’s Conservatism in Turkish Politics……………………………………………………………………………….....60 1. Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………60 2. Milli Görüş (National Vision) Movement..…………………………………………………..62 3. The Origins of the AKP..……………………………………………………………………..70 3.1. The Closure of the Welfare Party..………………………………………………..71 3.2. The Virtue Party..…………………………………………………………………...72 3.3. The Division within the Milli Görüş Movement..…………………………………73 4. The Role of the 28 February Process on AKP’s Political Survival..……………………..79 7 5. Turkey’s EU Accession Process..…………………………………………………………..83 6. The Importance of US and Western Support in the AKP’s Establishment..……………88 7. The Concept of Conservative Democracy..………………………………………………..90 8. Conclusion.…………………………………………………………………………………..100 Chapter 3: The Second Term of AKP’s Rule (2007-2011): The Power Struggle Between AKP and Kemalist Secular Elites……………………………………………………………....102 1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………..102 2. The Beginning of the Clash Between the AKP and Kemalist Secular Elites………….104 2.1. 2007 Presidential Election………………………………………………………..107 2.2. The AKP’s Closure Trial………………………………………………………….111 3. The AKP’s Reactions Against Kemalist Secular Elites………………………………….113 3.1. Ergenekon and Balyoz (Sledgehammer) Investigations……………………...113 4. ‘Not Enough But Yes’ (Yetmez Ama Evet): 2010 Turkish Constitutional Referendum………………………………………………………………………………….125 5. Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………128 Chapter 4: The Rise of Populism and Authoritarianism during the AKP’s third term (2011-2014): ……………………………………………………….………………………………130 1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………..130 2. 2011 Parliamentary Election…………………………...…………………………………..131 3. The Rise of Authoritarianism and Islamist Populism in Turkish Politics...…………….135 4. The Dissolution of the AKP’s Large Coalition: ‘We do not need Liberals’…………….140 5. The AKP’s Mastery of Populism….………………………………………………………..142 5.1. Anti-Intellectualism………………………………………………………………..144 5.2. Anti Westernism and Anti-Kemalism……………………………………………148 5.3. Conservative Family and Culture Policy………………………………………..152 5.4. Erdoğan’s Lower Class Mythology: White Turks vs. Black Turks……………156 5.5. The Rise of Hypocritical Islamists in Turkey……………………………………162 6. Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………167 Chapter 5: The Instrumentalisation of Islamism and Nationalism under Erdogan’s Leadership (2014-2018)………………………………………………………………………….169 1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………..169 2. The Clash of Islamists: AKP vs Fethullah Gülen Movement…………………………...170 2.1. The History of Gülen Movement…………………………………………………170 2.2. A strategic alliance of necessity between AKP and Gülen Movement………174 8 3. The Conflict Between AKP and Kurdish Movement……………………………………..188 3.1. From the ‘Kurdish opening’ to the ‘resolution process’………………………..193 3.2. Native and National (Yerli ve Milli) Coalition…………………………………...199 4. 2015 Parliamentary Elections……………………………………………………………...200 5. The Biggest Threat to AKP’s Political Survival: 15 July 2016 Coup Attempt…………211 6. The Turkish