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A New Political Economy for Europe Post-COVID-19
EUV0010.1177/1781685820968301European ViewBergsen 968301research-article2020 Article European View 2020, Vol. 19(2) 131 –137 A new political economy for © The Author(s) 2020 https://doi.org/10.1177/1781685820968301DOI: 10.1177/1781685820968301 Europe post-COVID-19 journals.sagepub.com/home/euv Pepijn Bergsen Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented economic support measures from governments across Europe. With this, the crisis has provided an occasion for a significant demonstration of the ability of states to implement policies and deliver services. This could create expectations among electorates of permanent changes to the macroeconomic regime, towards one characterised by a more protective state and a rebalancing between the state and the market. Significant political barriers to such a shift remain. The article argues that, in contrast to the aftermath of the two previous economic crises in Europe, many new ideas are floating around and support for a more protective state is emerging across the political spectrum. The current crisis might thus represent a turning point. Keywords COVID-19, Europe, Political economy, Industrial policy, Fiscal policy Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic has shocked European health systems and economies. So far it has not led to any political shocks. A crisis of this magnitude is unlikely to pass by without significant political consequences, though, particularly as it comes at the tail end of a decade of economic crisis in Europe that has not led to a fundamental shift in either the political or the economic regime. The global financial crisis of 2008–9 and the subsequent crisis in the eurozone had already led to demands for changes to the economic settlement. -
Euro Aggregate
Investment Highlights 2Q 2021 Euro Aggregate Performance Review Global Bond and Currency Returns Euro Aggregate portfolios outperformed their benchmarks Country 9 7.1 in 2Q21: 6 3.1 Overweight exposures to corporate bonds and hard 3 2.2 2.5 0.4 1.1 1.3 currency EM bonds were positive. 0 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 Total Returns (%) Total -3 An opportunistic allocation to US and Australian Govt Year Bond 7–10 France Italy Germany Spain Mexico Poland Japan UK China* Australia US Indonesia*S. Africa* duration added to returns. Sector A flattening of global yield curves was beneficial. 3.0 EU UK US EM Tactical positioning in inflation-linked bonds added 1.7 1.9 1.7 2.0 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.0 to returns. 1.0 0.6 Currency positioning was a positive, driven by an 0.0 overweight position in the Hungarian forint. Excess Returns (%) -0.3 -1.0 Euro Euro UK UK US US US US USD EM EM Corp HY Corp HY Corp MBS HY TIPS Sovereign Corp Portfolio Activity Currency 6 Reduced eurozone duration by cutting exposure 3.4 4.1 4 2.5 2.6 to longer-dated French government bonds early 2 0.5 0.9 1.4 in the quarter. 0 -2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.3 Reduced US and UK duration during the quarter -1.8 -1.3 -1.2 -4 -2.4 NOKAUD JPY INR GBP USD KRW CAD SEK CNY PLN MXN ZAR RUB as yields declined. -
European Union, 2020
08 Malone article.qxp_Admin 69-1 22/02/2021 15:06 Page 97 Administration, vol. 69, no. 1 (2021), pp. 97–109 doi: 10.2478/admin-2021-0008 European Union, 2020 Margaret Mary Malone Institute of Public Administration, Ireland The year was defined by the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, which unleashed a public health crisis and an associated economic crisis unlike anything experienced in modern times in Europe and beyond. The disease triggered a combined negative supply and demand shock of unprecedented intensity and the EU entered unchartered territory. National and regional serial lockdowns were introduced in a bid to curb the spread of Covid-19 and avoid health systems becoming overwhelmed. In a show of solidarity commensurate with the unfolding economic emergency, EU member states agreed a financial stimulus package of some €1.8 trillion to rebuild the battered EU economy. The package comprised the EU’s budget, or Multi- annual Financial Framework (MFF), for the period 2021–7 plus a temporary novel recovery instrument, Next Generation EU (NGEU). Funds for NGEU are to be borrowed, exceptionally, by the European Commission on the international capital markets. This decision was a landmark departure for the EU. Developments in the institutions of the EU On 1 January Croatia began its presidency of the Council of the EU for six months. A member state since July 2013, this was the first time Croatia had presided over the Council. Its priorities were driven by an unwittingly prescient motto, ‘A strong Europe in a world of challenges’. On 1 July Germany took over the Council presidency with 97 08 Malone article.qxp_Admin 69-1 22/02/2021 15:06 Page 98 98 MARGARET MARY MALONE the challenge of combatting the economic, social and budgetary implications of Covid-19 front and centre. -
EU Proposes COVID-19 Recovery Plan and [Further] Adjusted Work Programme
Tax Policy Bulletin from Global Tax Policy EU proposes COVID-19 Recovery Plan and [further] adjusted Work Programme June 29, 2020 In brief The European Commission has proposed a detailed COVID-19 Recovery Plan which includes more taxes going directly to the European Union. In the short term, the European Union will borrow to finance Member State investment in what is effectively the multi-annual financial framework (MFF) for 2021- 2027. The framework will be discussed in the coming months and, if approved, put in place this year. There would be some knock-on effects on work previously planned for 2020 (as discussed in our earlier Bulletin of 7 May 2020), including a number of tax proposals. This Bulletin focuses on • the fairly immediate introduction of ‘green’ levies: an EU-wide emissions trading levy, non-recycled plastic packaging waste charge and a carbon border adjustment mechanism; • a EU single market tax on the 70,000 large companies with revenues over EUR 750m; • a digital tax in the event of the OECD-led digitalisation/ globalisation project not producing a suitable consensus among the near 140 members of the Inclusive Framework; • the delivery of planned 2020 projects, including an “Action Plan to fight tax evasion and to make taxation simple and easy” and a plan on “Business Taxation for the 21st century.“ In detail COVID-19 recovery fund and structuring repayments The European Council endorsed crisis funding to provide a safety net for workers, businesses and Member State governments of EUR 540bn on April 23, 2020. The European Commission has now proposed an emergency European recovery instrument, ‘Next Generation EU,’ amounting to a further EUR 750bn. -
OPEN LETTER to EU Heads of State on Funding the Fight to End Violence Against Women and Girls
OPEN LETTER To EU Heads of State on funding the fight to end violence against women and girls Brussels, 23 September 2020 Dear President of the European Council, Charles Michel Dear Head of Presidency of the Council, Chancellor Angela Merkel Dear EU Heads of State Dear Members of the European Parliament We, the undersigned, members of the European Coalition to end violence against women and girls consisting of civil society organisations, networks and trade unions fighting for gender equality and the rights of women and girls to live free from violence, are writing to you regarding the MFF 2021-2027 and Next Generation EU (NGEU). We urge all EU decision-makers to demonstrate their political leadership and commitment to protecting gender equality, women’s and girls’ rights, and eliminating violence against women and girls in all of its activities through increased funds to the Citizens, Equality, Rights and Values programme. We are pleased about the recent decision by the European Commission to reverse the 20% cuts of the budget to the Citizens, Equality, Rights and Values Programme, which is now proposed at €638 million (current prices). These commitments were further welcomed by the European Council following the July 2020 Special Meeting, who supported the Commission’s 2018 proposed amount of €841 million (2018 prices) to the Justice, Rights and Values Fund. In light of the European Parliament’s vote to withhold its consent for the MFF on 23 July 2020, we urge EU decision-makers to swiftly come to an ambitious agreement and meet the Parliament’s demands for targeted increases to flagship programmes, including tripling the amount allocated to the Citizens, Equality, Rights and Values programme to €1.83 billion (current prices). -
Ten Issues to Watch in 2021
ISSN 2600-268X Ten issues to watch in 2021 IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service Author: Étienne Bassot Members' Research Service PE 659.436 – January 2021 EN This EPRS publication seeks to offer insights and put into context ten key issues and policy areas that are likely to feature prominently on the political agenda of the European Union in 2021. It has been compiled and edited by Isabelle Gaudeul-Ehrhart of the Members' Research Service, based on contributions from the following policy analysts: Marie-Laure Augère and Anna Caprile (Food for all? Food for thought), Denise Chircop and Magdalena Pasikowska-Schnass (Culture in crisis?), Costica Dumbrava (A new procedure to manage Europe's borders), Gregor Erbach (A digital boost for the circular economy), Silvia Kotanidis (Conference on the Future of Europe, in the introduction), Elena Lazarou (A new US President in the White House), Marianna Pari (The EU recovery plan: Turning crisis into opportunity?), Jakub Przetacznik and Nicole Scholz (The vaccine race for health safety), Ros Shreeves and Martina Prpic (Re-invigorating the fight against inequality?), Branislav Staniček (Turkey and stormy waters in the eastern Mediterranean) and Marcin Szczepanski (Critical raw materials for Europe). The cover image was produced by Samy Chahri. Further details of the progress of on-going EU legislative proposals, including all those mentioned in this document, are available in the European Parliament's Legislative Train Schedule, at: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/ LINGUISTIC VERSIONS Original: EN Translations: DE, FR Manuscript completed in January 2021. DISCLAIMER AND COPYRIGHT This document is prepared for, and addressed to, the Members and staff of the European Parliament as background material to assist them in their parliamentary work. -
European Debt Mutualisation
EU BUDGET POLICY PAPER NO.255 JULY 2020 EUROPEAN DEBT #EUBUDGET #RECOVERY #DEBT MUTUALISATION MUTUALISATION FINDING A LEGITIMATE BALANCE BETWEEN SOLIDARITY AND RESPONSIBILITY MECHANISMS Photo by CafeCredit under CC 2.0 ▪ ANDREAS EISL Executive Summary ▪ Research fellow, Jacques Delors Institute In the upcoming European Council on July 17 and 18, EU member states will fight for a compromise on the European Commission’s main project to tackle the economic fallout ▪ MATTIA TOMAY of the Covid-19 crisis across Europe: a new 7-year EU budget propped up with a temporary Political scientist, Recovery Instrument (Next Generation EU) amounting to EUR 750 bn of jointly issued debt Member of the Académie and to be passed on to EU countries as grants and loans. It is one of the most ambitious in Notre Europe 2019-2020 a long line of proposals for European debt mutualisation. While joint borrowing can carry a lot of advantages, debt mutualisation has always been very controversial. Confrontations between those countries supposedly benefiting and losing from mutualising debt have repeatedly centered on the legitimate balance of solidarity and responsibility that such debt implies. Democratic legitimacy in solidarity-responsibility arrangements can be achieved when they can deliver in terms of output legitimacy (being effective in economic terms), input legitimacy (ensuring sufficient room for domestic politics in deciding national policy trajectories) and throughput legitimacy (being run in a transparent and accountable manner). THINKING EUROPE • PENSER L’EUROPE• EUROPA DENKEN 1 ▪ 20 This paper analyses the solidarity-responsibility arrangements of various proposals and rea- lized forms of European debt mutualisation made over the last decades to evaluate their shortcomings and potential in finding a legitimate balance of solidarity and responsibility mechanisms for all EU member states. -
Frugal Member States Vs. the Eu : Not Too Much Please
PENSER L’EUROPE • THINKING EUROPE • EUROPA DENKEN BLOG POST BLOG POST FRUGAL MEMBER STATES VS. THE EU : NOT TOO MUCH PLEASE 27/10/2020 | DANIEL DEBOMY | DEMOCRACY AND CITIZENSHIP Daniel Debomy, Associate Research Fellow at the Jacques Delors Institute, Director of OPTEM 2020 has been a year marked by arduous negotiations which resulted in the adoption of the recovery plan for the European economy, hit hard by the consequences of the COVID 19 pandemic. During these negotiations, the leaders of so-called “Frugal Four” Member States expressed their major disinclination towards a solidarity-based commit- ment to recovery (and ultimately only came around when granted substantial financial concessions): the Netherlands – although a founding Member State of the European Community –, Denmark, Sweden and Austria. As the negotiations between European institutions continue, in particular with a view to finalising the European Mul- tiannual Financial Framework for 2021-2027, this paper analyses the state of public opinion towards the EU in these four countries, as expressed prior to these events. This paper is based on data from the European Commission’s Eurobarometer survey conducted in the autumn of 2019 and from the 2019 surveys of the European Parliament, the most recent comparable data available on the state of public opinion. Positive opinions regarding the economic situation Citizens of the “Frugal Four” Member States stand out for their highly positive opinions with regard to the economic situation in their country: 90% deem the situation positive in the Netherlands as in Denmark and 76% in Sweden and Austria - all scores which are much greater than the European average (47%). -
What Does the Road to Recovery from COVID-19 Look Like? Expert Survey on Worldwide Effects of the Pandemic
26 EconPol 2020 October POLICY REPORT Vol. 4 World Economy: What Does the Road to Recovery from COVID-19 Look Like? Expert Survey on Worldwide Effects of the Pandemic Dorine Boumans, Pauliina Sandqvist and Stefan Sauer (EconPol Europe, ifo Institute) headed by KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle KOF Swiss Economic Institute EconPol POLICY REPORT A publication of EconPol Europe European Network of Economic and Fiscal Policy Research Publisher and distributor: ifo Institute Poschingerstr. 5, 81679 Munich, Germany Telephone +49 89 9224-0, Telefax +49 89 9224-1462, email [email protected] Editors: Mathias Dolls, Clemens Fuest Reproduction permitted only if source is stated and copy is sent to the ifo Institute. EconPol Europe: www.econpol.eu World Economy: What Does the Road to Recovery from COVID-19 Look Like? Expert Survey on World-Wide Effects of the Pandemic Dorine Boumans, Pauliina Sandqvist and Stefan Sauer1 The outbreak of COVID-19 has had a detrimental effect on global health care systems, with a ripple effect on every aspect of human life as we know it. On January 30, 2020 the World Health Organisation declared COVID-19 as a global emergency (WHO, 2020). In response, to “flatten the curve”, governments have enforced border shutdowns, travel restrictions, and general lockdowns with numerous social distancing measures such as closed schools, shops, services and, to a lesser extent, the manufacturing industry. This in turn led to an impending economic crisis and recession all around the globe. The IMF World Economic Outlook of June 2020 projects global growth at -4.9 percent in 2020 (IMF, 2020a). After more than six months of coronavirus being part of our life, most economies have opened up again, although with certain restrictions against the spread of the virus. -
Reading Between the Lines of Council Agreement on the MFF and Next Generation EU Jorge Núñez Ferrer
No 2020-18 / July 2020 Reading between the lines of Council agreement on the MFF and Next Generation EU Jorge Núñez Ferrer Abstract The recent agreement on the EU budget is an unprecedented and historic achievement for the European Union. It has broken a taboo and advanced the integration process. We all saw that the negotiations were arduous, but given the magnitude of the challenge facing the heads of state and government, it would have been naïve to expect otherwise. It is virtually impossible to find a comparable agreement between numerous countries in any other part of the world; by this measure alone it is impressive. Having said that, what has been agreed is complex and bewildering to many. While attention has focused on the Next Generation EU, the agreement also includes the ‘normal’ multiannual financial framework (MFF) 2021-27. Comments to the effect that the EU has deleted all funding for health, or much of the research budget, are based on the Next Generation EU ‘temporary’ measure and not on the underlying MFF. This paper aims to present a brief rundown of the actual changes in numbers and reflect on the meaning of the agreement. Jorge Núñez Ferrer is a Senior Research Fellow at CEPS. CEPS Policy Insights offer analyses of a wide range of key policy questions facing Europe. As an institution, CEPS takes no position on questions of European policy. Unless otherwise indicated, the views expressed are attributable only to the author in a personal capacity and not to any institution with which he is associated. Available for free downloading from the CEPS website (www.ceps.eu) © CEPS 2020 CEPS ▪ Place du Congrès 1 ▪ B-1000 Brussels ▪ Tel: (32.2) 229.39.11 ▪ www.ceps.eu 2 | JORGE NÚÑEZ FERRER In a nutshell, the major decisions taken are the following: a) The level of grants in Next Generation EU was cut from €500 billion to €390 billion. -
Brexit: What to Watch
Transcript Brexit: What to Watch Georgina Wright Senior Researcher, Institute for Government Anna Isaac Trade and Economics Correspondent, POLITICO Europe Professor Richard G Whitman Associate Fellow, Europe Programme, Chatham House Professor Vernon Bogdanor Professor of Government, King’s College, London Chair: Professor Anand Menon Director, UK in a Changing Europe Event date: 11 December 2020 The views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the speaker(s) and participants, and do not necessarily reflect the view of Chatham House, its staff, associates or Council. Chatham House is independent and owes no allegiance to any government or to any political body. It does not take institutional positions on policy issues. This document is issued on the understanding that if any extract is used, the author(s)/speaker(s) and Chatham House should be credited, preferably with the date of the publication or details of the event. Where this document refers to or reports statements made by speakers at an event, every effort has been made to provide a fair representation of their views and opinions. The published text of speeches and presentations may differ from delivery. © The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2021. 10 St James’s Square, London SW1Y 4LE T +44 (0)20 7957 5700 F +44 (0)20 7957 5710 www.chathamhouse.org Patron: Her Majesty The Queen Chair: Jim O’Neill Director: Dr Robin Niblett Charity Registration Number: 208223 2 Brexit: What to Watch Professor Anand Menon Hi everyone, and welcome to this Chatham House event on Brexit: What to Watch. We could call it Brexit: Is it really still going? I suppose, but we’ve got a lot to talk through. -
20 YEARS LATER Where Does Diplomacy Stand?
PUBLISHED BY THE AMERICAN FOREIGN SERVICE ASSOCIATION SEPTEMBER 2021 20 YEARS LATER Where Does Diplomacy Stand? September 2021 Volume 98, No. 7 Focus on 9/11, Twenty Years Later 22 Getting Off the X In a compelling personal account of the 9/11 attacks, one FSO offers tactics for surviving when catastrophe strikes. By Nancy Ostrowski 26 The Global War on Terror and Diplomatic Practice The war on terror fundamentally changed U.S. diplomacy, leaving a trail 39 of collateral damage to America’s readiness for future challenges. Intervention: FS Know-How By Larry Butler Unlearned Lessons, or the Gripes of a Professional 46 31 The State Department’s failure to Whistleblower effectively staff and run interventions Protections: America and 9/11: has a long history. Four critical A Nonpartisan The Real-World Impact of lessons can be drawn from the post-9/11 experience. Necessity Terrorism and Extremism As old as the United States itself, In retrospect, 9/11 did not foreshadow By Ronald E. Neumann whistleblowing has protections the major changes that now drive worth knowing about. U.S. foreign policy and national security strategy. By Alain Norman and 43 Raeka Safai By Anthony H . Cordesman From the FSJ Archive 9/11, War on Terror, Iraq 35 and Afghanistan FS Heritage The Proper Measure of the Place: 48 Reflections on the Diplomats Make Afghan Mission a Difference: Drawing from two tours, a decade The U.S. and Mongolia, apart, a veteran diplomat explores the competing visions for Afghanistan. 1986-1990 In the 1992 FSJ, Ambassador By Keith W.