Ten Answers About Evolution Critical Thinking and Parenting Hollywood

Moving Science’s Goalposts | Climate Report | Roswell at 70 | Human Germline Editing | Anti-Vax Arguments

the Magazine for Science and Reason Vol. 41 No.6 | November/December 2017

Ten Answers REVIEWS: about Evolution Inconvenient Sequel Gardner and Truzzi Critical Thinking Food Evolution and Parenting Nail in Nessie’s Coffin Hollywood Curse Legends A Pioneer Published by the Center for Inquiry in association with the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry Science Communicator a program of the Robyn E. Blumner, President and CEO Benjamin Radford, Research Fellow Barry Karr, Executive Director Richard Wiseman, Research Fellow Joe Nickell, Senior Research Fellow Massimo Polidoro, Research Fellow www.csicop.org

Fellows

James E. Alcock*, psychologist, York Univ., Toronto David H. Gorski, cancer surgeon and researcher at Barbara Jay M. Pasachoff, Field Memorial Professor of Marcia Angell, MD, former editor-in-chief, Ann Karmanos Cancer Institute and chief of breast surgery Astronomy and director of the Hopkins New England Journal of Medicine section, Wayne State University School of Medicine. Observatory, Williams College Kimball Atwood IV, MD, physician; author; Newton, MA Wendy M. Grossman, writer; founder and first editor, John Paulos, mathematician, Temple Univ. Stephen Barrett, MD, psychiatrist; author; consumer advocate, The Skeptic magazine (UK) Clifford A. Pickover, scientist, author, editor, IBM T.J. Watson Allentown, PA Susan Haack, Cooper Senior Scholar in Arts and Research Center. Willem Betz, MD, professor of medicine, Univ. of Brussels Sciences, professor of philosophy and professor Massimo Pigliucci, professor of philosophy, of Law, Univ. of Miami Irving Biederman, psychologist, Univ. of Southern CA City Univ. of New York–Lehman College Harriet Hall*, MD, physician; investigator, Puyallup, WA Susan Blackmore, visit ing lecturer, Univ. of the West of Steven Pinker, cognitive scientist, Harvard Univ. David J. Helfand, professor of astronomy, England, Bristol Massimo Polidoro, science writer; author; executive Columbia Univ. Sandra Blakeslee, science writer; author; New York Times director of CICAP, Italy Terence M. Hines, prof. of psychology, Pace Univ., science correspondent Pleasantville, NY James L. Powell, geochemist, author, professor; executive director, National Physical Science Consortium; retired college Mark Boslough, physicist, Sandia National Laboratories, Douglas R. Hofstadter, professor of human Albuquerque, NM understanding and cognitive science, Indiana Univ. and museum president, Buellton, CA Anthony R. Pratkanis, professor of psychology, Univ. of CA, Henri Broch, physicist, Univ. of Nice, France Gerald Holton, Mallinckrodt Professor of Physics and professor Jan Harold Brunvand, folklorist; professor emeritus of histo ry of science, Harvard Univ. Santa Cruz of English, Univ. of Utah Ray Hyman*, psychologist, Univ. of Oregon Donald R. Prothero, paleontologist/geologist, Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County, Los Angeles, CA Mario Bunge, philosopher, McGill Univ., Montreal Stuart D. Jordan, NASA astrophysicist emeritus; Sean B. Carroll, molecular geneticist; vice president for science science advisor to Center for Inquiry Office of Public Benjamin Radford, investigator; research fellow, Commit- education, Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Madison, WI Policy, Washington, DC tee for Skeptical Inquiry Thomas R. Casten, energy expert; founder, Recycled Energy Barry Karr, executive director, Committee for James “The Amazing” Randi, magician; CSICOP founding Development, Westmont, IL Skeptical Inquiry, Amherst, NY member; founder, James Randi Educational Foundation John R. Cole, anthropologist; editor, National Lawrence M. Krauss, foundation professor, School Milton Rosenberg, psychologist, Univ. of Chicago Center for Science Education of Earth and Space Exploration and Physics Dept.; Amardeo Sarma*, chairman, GWUP, Germa ny K.C. Cole, science writer; author; professor, Univ. of Southern director, Origins Initiative, Arizona State Univ. Richard Saunders, president, Australian Skeptics; educator; California’s Annenberg School of Journalism Edwin C. Krupp, astronomer; director, investigator; podcaster; Sydney, Australia John Cook, research assistant professor, Center for Climate Griffith Observatory, Los Angeles, CA Joe Schwarcz, director, McGill Office for Science and Society Change Communication, George Mason University, Lawrence Kusche, science writer Virginia. Eugenie C. Scott*, physical anthropologist; chair, advisory Stephan Lewandowsky, psychologist, School of Experimental council , National Center for Science Education Frederick Crews, literary and cultural critic; professor emeritus Psychology and Cabot Institute, Univ. of Bristol, UK of English, Univ. of CA, Berkeley Seth Shostak, senior astronomer, SETI Institute, Scott O. Lilienfeld*, psychol o gist, Emory Univ., Atlanta, GA Richard Dawkins, zoologist, Oxford Univ. Mountain View, CA Lin Zixin, former editor, Science and Technology Daily (China) Simon Singh, science writer; broadcaster; UK Geoffrey Dean, technical editor, Perth, Australia Jere Lipps, Museum of Paleontology, Univ. of CA, Berkeley Dick Smith, entrepreneur, publisher, aviator, adventurer, Cornelis de Jager, professor of astrophysics, Univ. of Utrecht, the Netherlands Elizabeth Loftus*, professor of psychology, Univ. of CA, Irvine Terrey Hills, N.S.W., Australia Keith E. Stanovich, cognitive psychologist; professor of Daniel C. Dennett, Austin B. Fletcher Professor of Philosophy Daniel Loxton, author, editor of Junior Skeptic at Skeptic maga- and director of Center for Cognitive Studies, Tufts Univ. zine (US), artist, Vancouver, B.C., Canada human development and applied psychology, Univ. of Toronto Ann Druyan, writer and producer; CEO, Cosmos Studios, David Marks, psychologist, City Univ., London Karen Stollznow*, linguist; skeptical investigator; writer; Ithaca, NY Mario Mendez-Acosta, journalist and science writer, Mexico podcaster Sanal Edamaruku, president, Indian Rationalist City Association and Rationalist International Kenneth R. Miller, professor of biology, Brown Univ. Jill Cornell Tarter, astronomer, SETI Institute, Mountain View, CA Edzard Ernst, professor, Complementary Medicine, Peninsula David Morrison, space scientist, NASA Ames Research Center Medical School, Universities of Exeter and Plymouth, Richard A. Muller, professor of physics, Univ. of CA, Berkeley Carol Tavris, psychol o gist and author, Los Angeles, CA Exeter, UK Joe Nickell, senior research fellow, CSI David E. Thomas*, physicist and mathematician, Socorro, NM Kenneth Feder, professor of anthropology, Jan Willem Nienhuys, mathematician, Waalre, Neil deGrasse Tyson, astrophysicist and director, Central Connecticut State Univ. The Netherlands Hayden Planetarium, New York City Krista Federspiel, science journalist, expert on complementary Lee Nisbet, philosopher, Medaille College Indre Viskontas, cognitive neuroscientist, TV and podcast host, and alternative medicine, Vienna, Austria. Steven Novella*, MD, assistant professor and opera singer, San Francisco, CA Barbara Forrest, professor of philosophy, SE Louisiana Univ. of neurology, Yale Univ. School of Medicine Stuart Vyse, psychologist, former Joanne Toor Cummings Andrew Fraknoi, astron omer, Foothill College, Los Altos Hills, CA Bill Nye, science educator and television host, Nye Labs ’50 professor of psychology, Connecticut College; author Kendrick Frazier*, science writer; editor, Skeptical Inquirer James E. Oberg, science writer of Believing in Magic: The Psychology of Superstition Christopher C. French, professor, Department Irmgard Oepen, professor of medicine (retired), Marilyn vos Savant, Parade magazine contributing editor Marburg, Germany of Psychology, and head of the Anomalistic Psychology Steven Weinberg, profes sor of physics and astronomy, Univ. of Paul Offit, professor of pediatrics, director of the Vaccine Educa- Research Unit, Goldsmiths College, Univ. of London Texas at Austin; Nobel laureate Julia Galef, host of the Rationally Speaking podcast; tion Center, the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia cofounder, Center for Applied Rationality, Berkeley, CA Naomi Oreskes, geologist and professor, departments of the E.O. Wilson, Univ. professor emeritus, organismic and evolu- Luigi Garlaschelli, chemist, Università di Pavia (Italy); History of Science and Earth and Planetary Sciences, tionary biology, Harvard Univ. research fellow of CICAP, the Italian skeptics group Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA Richard Wiseman, psychologist, Univ. of Hertfordshire, Maryanne Garry, professor, School of Psychology, Victoria Loren Pankratz, psychologist, Oregon Health England Univ. of Wellington, New Zealand Sciences Univ. Benjamin Wolozin, professor, Department of Pharmacology, Thomas Gilovich, psychologist, Cornell Univ. Robert L. Park, professor of physics, Univ. of Maryland Boston Univ. School of Medicine

* Member, CSI Executive Council (Affiliations given for identification only.)

The Skeptical Inquirer (ISSN 0194-6730) is published ecutive Director, CSI, P.O. Box 703, Amherst, NY 14226- authors. Their publication does not necessarily constitute bimonthly by the Center for Inquiry in association with 0703. Tel.: 716-636-1425. Fax: 716-636-1733. Email: an endorsement by CSI or its members unless so stated. the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry, P.O. Box 703, Am- [email protected]. Copyright ©2017 by the Center for Inquiry and the herst, NY 14226. Printed in U.S.A. Periodicals post Manuscripts, letters, books for review, and editorial Committee for Skeptical Inquiry. All rights reserved. age paid at Buffalo, NY, and at additional mailing offi inquiries should be sent to Kendrick Frazier, Editor, Skep Subscriptions and changes of address should be ad ces. Subscription prices: one year (six issues), $35; tical Inquirer, EMAIL: [email protected]. Mail: dressed to: Skeptical Inquirer, P.O. Box 703, Amherst, NY two years, $60; three years, $84; single issue, $5.99. 944 Deer Drive NE, Albuquerque, NM 87122. Before 14226-0703. Or call toll-free 1-800-634-1610 (outside Canadian and foreign orders: Payment in U.S. funds submitting any manuscript, please consult our Guide for the U.S. call 716-636-1425). Old address as well as new drawn on a U.S. bank must accompany orders; please Authors for style and reference requirements and submit- are necessary for change of subscriber’s address, with add US$10 per year for shipping. Canadian and foreign tal instructions. It is on our website at www.csicop.org/ six weeks advance notice. Skeptical Inquirer subscribers customers are encouraged to use Visa or MasterCard. publications/guide. may not speak on behalf of CSI or the Skeptical Inquirer. Inquiries from the media and the public about the Articles, reports, reviews, and letters published in the Postmaster: Send changes of address to Skeptical work of the Committee should be made to Barry Karr, Ex- Skeptical Inquirer erepr sent the views and work of individual Inquirer, P.O. Box 703, Amherst, NY 14226-0703. Skepti cal Inquirer November/December 2017 | Vol. 41, No. 6

CONSPIRACY THEORIES AND INCREDIBLE TALES COLUMNS 34 FROM THE EDITOR Conspiracy Theories ...... 4 Pizzagate and Beyond: and Incredible Tales Using Social Research to Understand Conspiracy Legends NEWS AND COMMENT JEFFREY S. DEBIES-CARL The 2017 Climate Science Special Re- port: Excerpts from Key Findings / NECSS 2017: Skepticism Making Connections in 38 Midtown Manhattan / History Channel’s Credibility MIA Following Amelia Earhart Becoming Fantastic Special...... 5 Why Some People Embellish Their Already Accomplished Lives with Incredible Tales INVESTIGATIVE FILES ERIC WOJCIECHOWSKI Mystery of Mollie Fancher, ‘The Fasting FEATURES Girl,’ and Others Who Lived without Eating JOE NICKELL...... 18 42 A MAGICIAN IN THE LAB Ten Questions (and Answers) A Great And Fortuitous ‘Find’! about Teaching Evolution JAMES RANDI...... 22 BERTHA VAZQUEZ AND CHRISTOPHER FREIDHOFF NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD The Conspiracy of the Fairies MASSIMO POLIDORO...... 24 44 BEHAVIOR & BELIEF Critical Thinking and Parenting Moving Science’s Statistical Goalposts How Skepticism Saved My Special Needs STUART VYSE...... 26 Kid from Certain Death AMY FRUSHOUR KELLY SCIENCE WATCH Editing the Human Germline KENNETH W. KRAUSE...... 29 47 SKEPTICAL INQUIREE Hollywood Curse Legends Legitimizing Woo BRETT TAYLOR BENJAMIN RADFORD...... 32

52 LETTERS TO THE EDI TOR...... 62

Before Carl Sagan and THE LAST LAUGH...... 66 Neil deGrasse Tyson, There Was Dan Q. Posin The Martin Gardner Correspondence with Marcello Truzzi SPECIAL REPORT RAY WARD...... 57 Dear Martin, Dear Marcello: Gardner 12 and Truzzi on Skepticism The Roswell Incident Edited by Dana Richards at 70: Facts, Not Myths KENDRICK FRAZIER Loch Ness Solved—Even More Fully! JOE NICKELL ...... 59 COMMENTARY REVIEWS The Loch Ness Mystery Reloaded 16 by Ronald Binns Truth to Power on Climate Is Eating Vegetables Truly Safe? KENDRICK FRAZIER ...... 56 An Examination into Contemporary Food Evolution Anti-Vaccination Arguments Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power A Pictorial Film Review A documentary by Al Gore, John Shenk, CELESTIA WARD ...... 60 CRAIG A. FOSTER and Bonni Cohen Committee for Skeptical Inquiry Skeptical Inquirer™ “... promotes scientific inquiry, critical investigation, and the use THE MAGA ZINE FOR SCIENCE AND REASON of reason in examining controversial and extraordinary claims.” EDITOR Kendrick Frazier DEPUTY EDITOR Benjamin Radford MANAGING EDITOR Julia Lavarnway [ FROM THE EDITOR ASSISTANT EDITOR Nicole Scott ART DIRECTOR Christopher Fix PRODUCTION Paul E. Loynes

Conspiracy Theories and Incredible Tales WEBMASTER Marc Kreidler PUBLISHER’S REPRESENTATIVE Barry Karr e lead off this issue with a two-article section on Conspiracy Theories EDITORIAL BOARD James E. Alcock, Harriet Hall, and Incredible Tales, a timely look at thinking and behaviors that are Ray Hyman, Scott O. Lilienfeld, Elizabeth Loftus, Joe Nickell, Steven Novella, Amar deo Sarma, W at the root of many modern claims and confusions. Nearly every day’s Eugenie C. Scott, Karen Stollznow, David E. Thomas, news brings new evidence of conspiratorial thinking or word of someone em- Leonard Tramiel bellishing the truth about their own lives and obsessions. CONSULTING EDITORS Susan J. Blackmore, Kenneth L. Feder, Barry Karr, E.C. Krupp, Jeffrey S. Debies-Carl, an associate professor of sociology at the Univer- Jay M. Pasachoff, Richard Wise man sity of New Haven, shows how social science research can help us understand CONTRIBUTING EDITORS Harriet Hall, Kenneth W. Krause, David Morrison, Massimo Pigliucci, conspiracy legends. He begins with last year’s notorious “Pizzagate” incident in David E. Thomas, Stuart Vyse which a young man shot up a popular Washington, D.C., pizzeria after being Published in association with persuaded by online conspiracy-promoting sites that something nefarious was going on there. Preposterous as this series of events was, it typifies how con- CHAIR Edward Tabash spiracy theories work. Folklorists see stories like the one that appealed to this PRESIDENT AND CEO Robyn E. Blumner troubled man as a legend, in which the events are presented as possible, even CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER Barry Karr if they are bizarre and not necessarily plausible. No firsthand witnesses can be CORPORATE COUNSEL Nicholas J. Little, found. Multiple versions surface with varying details. Their lack of credibility Brenton N. VerPloeg isn’t necessarily obvious. The Internet supplies an abundance of sympathetic BUSINESS MANAGER Patricia Beauchamp FISCAL OFFICER Paul Paulin websites and posts that seem to confirm the weird claim. Conspiracy theories SUBSCRIPTION DATA MANAGER Jacalyn Mohr are notoriously resilient to criticism, as sociologist Ted Goertzel made clear COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR Paul Fidalgo in his 2011 Skeptical Inquirer cover article “The Conspiracy Meme.” De- DIRECTOR OF LIBRARIES Timo thy S. Binga bies-Carl notes that psychological research shows how difficult it is for people VICE PRESIDENT FOR PHILANTHROPY Martina Fern to admit they were wrong once they have strongly committed to a belief or DIRECTOR, COUNCIL FOR SECULAR HUMANISM course of action. And action, not just talk, is regrettably sometimes the result, Tom Flynn DIRECTOR, DIGITAL PRODUCT AND STRATEGIES a form of “legend-tripping.” As he notes, “Legends, like fake news, can lead to Marc Kreidler real-world consequences.” DIRECTOR, CAMPUS AND COMMUNITY PROGRAMS In “Becoming Fantastic,” Eric Wojciechowski, a writer trained in psychology, Debbie Goddard explores why some people embellish their already accomplished lives with in- DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT Stephanie Guttormson credible tall tales. His concern is not just exaggerations but imagined narratives DATABASE ADMINISTRATOR that stretch to the realm of the fantastic. His examples come from the field of Cody Hashman UFOlogy, with people like Philip J. Corso, Robert O. Dean, and Steven M. DIRECTOR, TEACHER INSTITUTE FOR EVOLUTIONARY SCIENCE Greer. They all were accomplished figures (the first two in the military, Greer Bertha Vazquez in medicine), yet they all tell stories about themselves that seem incredible. We BOARD OF DIRECTORS, Edward Tabash (chair), cannot know for certain why, but it does make their lives seem more exciting. David Cowan, Richard Dawkins, Brian Engler, Kendrick Frazier, Barry A. Kosmin, Y. Sherry Sheng, The examples of these well-known people seemingly making up things can be Andy Thomson, Leonard Tramiel. Honorary: Rebecca Newberger Goldstein, multiplied many times over by lesser known figures doing the same. Susan Jacoby, Lawrence Krauss. The rest of the issue is our typically rich mix of topics. We offer five timely reviews, including our first-ever pictorial film review, courtesy of skeptic and artist/illustrator Celestia Ward. Bertha Vazquez answers ten questions about evolution, Stuart Vyse reports on a near-forgotten pioneer science communicator and also on the effort to raise the bar of “statistical significance” in science, Brett Taylor examines “Hollywood Curse Legends,” I give some of the facts behind the Roswell UFO myth, and Amy Kelly tells her very personal story of how her skeptical thinking saved her special-needs child.

—Kendrick Frazier

CFI Mission: The Center for Inquiry strives to foster a secular society based on reason, science, freedom of inquiry, and humanist values. Our Vision: A world where people value evidence and critical thinking, where superstition and prejudice subside, and where science and compassion guide public policy. Our Values: Integrity, Courage, Innovation, Empathy, Learning, and Wonder. [ NEWS AND COMMENT The 2017 Climate Science Special Report: Excerpts from Key Findings

Here are key excerpts from the Executive Summary of the U.S. Global Change Research Program Climate Science Special Report.1 This is the final 669-page draft report on climate change prepared by scientists from thirteen federal science agencies2 that was in the news in August when it was released unofficially (leaked to The New York Times) because of fears that the Trump administration might suppress it. The report is part of the National Climate Assessment, congressionally mandated every four years. The graphics shown here are from the report. —The Editors

Executive Summary tremes, the three warmest years on record 17 years are the warmest years on record New observations and new research have for the globe, and continued decline in for the globe. increased our understanding of past, cur- arctic sea ice. These trends are expected to . . . Longer-term climate records over rent, and future climate change since the continue in the future over climate (multi- past centuries and millennia indicate that Third U.S. National Climate Assessment decadal) timescales. . . . average temperatures in recent decades (NCA3) was published in May 2014. . . . over much of the world have been much higher, and have risen faster during this Since NCA3, stronger evidence has Global and U.S. Temperatures time period, than at any time in the past emerged for continuing, rapid, human-caused Continue to Rise 1,700 years or more, the time period for global warming of the global atmosphere Recent data adds to the weight of evi- which the global distribution of surface and ocean. This report concludes that “it is dence for rapid global-scale warming, temperatures can be reconstructed. extremely likely that human influence has the dominance of human causes, and the been the dominant cause of the observed expected continuation of increasing tem- warming since the mid-20th century. For peratures, including more record-setting Many Temperature and Precipitation warming over the last century, there is no extremes. . . . Extremes Are Becoming More Common convincing alternative explanation sup- Since the last National Climate As- Some extremes have already become ported by the extent of the observational sessment was published, 2014 became more frequent, intense, or of longer dura- evidence.” the warmest year on record globally; 2015 tion, and many extremes are expected to The last few years have also seen re- surpassed 2014 by a wide margin; and increase or worsen, presenting substan- cord-breaking, climate-related weather ex- 2016 surpassed 2015. Sixteen of the last tial challenges for built, agricultural, and

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2017 5 Perennial Sea Ice Area by Age, 1984, 2016 natural systems. Some storm types such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and winter storms are also exhibiting changes that have been linked to climate change, although the current state of the science does not yet permit detailed understanding. There have been marked changes in temperature extremes across the contig- uous United States. The number of high temperature records set in the past two decades far exceeds the number of low temperature records.

The Connected Climate System: Distant Changes Affect the United States Understanding the full scope of human impacts on climate requires a global focus because of the interconnected nature of the climate system. For example, the climate of the Arctic and the climate of the continental United States are connected through atmospheric circulation patterns. While the Arctic may seem remote to most Americans, the climate effects of pertur- bations to arctic sea ice, land ice, surface temperature, snow cover, and permafrost affect the amount of warming, sea level change, carbon cycle impacts, and poten- tially even weather patterns in the lower 48 states. The Arctic is warming at a rate approximately twice as fast as the global average and, if it continues to warm at the same rate, Septembers will be nearly ice- free in the Arctic Ocean sometime between now and the 2040s. September Sea Ice Extent, 1979–2016 Oceans Are Rising, Warming, and Be- coming More Acidic The world’s oceans have absorbed about 93% of the excess heat caused by green- house gas warming since the mid-20th century, making them warmer and altering global and regional climate feedbacks. Global mean sea level has risen by about 7–9 inches (about 16–21 cm) since 1900, with about 3 of those inches (about 7 cm) occurring since 1993. Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to global mean sea level rise since 1900, contributing to a rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years. As sea levels have risen, the number of tidal floods each year that cause

6 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer [ NEWS AND COMMENT

minor impacts (also called “nuisance climate system is changed, the greater floods”) have increased 5- to 10-fold the risk of such surprises. since the 1960s in several U.S. coastal There are at least two types of poten- cities. Rates of increase are accelerating tial surprises: compound events, where in over 25 Atlantic and Gulf Coast cities. multiple extreme climate events occur Tidal flooding will continue increasing in simultaneously or sequentially (creat- depth, frequency, and extent this century. ing greater overall impact), and critical threshold or tipping point events, where some threshold is crossed in the climate Global Change in Alaska and across system (that leads to large impacts). The the Arctic Continues to Outpace probability of such surprises—some of Global Climate Change which may be abrupt and/or irrevers- Annual average near-surface air tem- ible—as well as other more predictable peratures across Alaska and the Arctic but difficulty-to-manage impacts, in- have increased over the last 50 years creases as the influence of human ac- at a rate more than twice as fast as tivities on the climate system increases. the global average temperature. . . . It is virtually certain that human activities have contributed to Arctic surface tem- Notes 1. USGCRP. 2017. Climate Science Special perature warming, sea ice loss since Report: A Sustained Assessment Activity of 1979, glacier mass loss, and northern the U.S. Global Change Research Program. hemisphere snow extent decline across U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, D.C. USA. 669 pp. Available online the Arctic. at https://assets.documentcloud.org/docu- ments/3920195/Final-Draft-of-the-Climate- Science-Special-Report.pdf Limiting Globally Averaged Warming 2. The thirteen agencies are NSF, NASA, to 2 degrees C (3.6 F) Will Require NOAA, EPA, the Smithsonian, and the departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Energy, Defense, Major Reductions in Emissions Health and Human Services, Interior, State, and Global mean atmospheric carbon diox- Transportation. ide (CO2) concentration has now passed 400 ppm, a level that last occurred 3 million years ago, when global average temperature and sea level were sig- nificantly higher than today. Continued growth in CO2 emissions over this century and beyond would lead to an atmospheric concentration not experienced in tens of millions of years. The present-day emissions rate of nearly 10 GtC per year suggests that there is no climate analog to this century any time in at least the last 40 million years.

There Is a Significant Possibility of Unanticipated Changes Humanity is conducting an unprec- edented experiment with the Earth’s climate system through emissions from large-scale fossil-fuel combustion, widespread deforestation, and other changes to the atmosphere and landscape. . . . There is significant potential for humankind’s planetary experiment to result in unanticipated surprises— and the further and faster the Earth’s

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2017 7 NECSS 2017: Skepticism Making Connections in Midtown Manhattan

Russ Dobler

Skeptics came out in full force for NECSS 2017. Left: Leighann Lord lent her comic talent to emcee the event. Middle: Steven Novella and Britt Marie Hermes sat on the “Is Science-Based Medicine Successful?” panel. Right: James Randi amazed yet another skeptical audience.

“Why can’t we do this every weekend?” Skeptical Society. The Skeptics’ Guide to retires or dies,” but Jones reported he’s asked Leighann Lord, comedian and the Universe and The Society for Science- seeing more parents who are appalled at sometime cohost of Neil deGrasse Tyson’s Based Medicine are also major sponsors. the anti-vaccination movement. The pan- StarTalk Radio podcast, as she opened Surgical oncologist David Gorski el acknowledged the Sisyphean nature of the first day of lectures at the ninth an- opened up NECSS on a bit of a sad note, their task, and Hall finally said what was nual Northeast Conference on Science telling the story of Somali immigrants on everyone’s minds: “We’re doing a hell and Skepticism (NECSS). It was Lord’s in Minnesota who were convinced by of a lot better than if we weren’t doing first emcee gig for NECSS and the meet- discredited anti-vaccine doctor Andrew anything at all.” ing’s first time at midtown Manhattan’s Wakefield to forgo their MMR shots Making connections with people be- Hotel Pennsylvania thanks to a fire that and were then blamed by anti-immigrant came a theme of the weekend, as emcee scorched the usual rooms at the Fashion voices when they got sick. “They’ve been Lord knew just when, in person and on Institute of Technology (FIT) just days victimized twice,” Gorski said. social media, to interject with a poignant before the conference was to begin. But The mood lightened slightly for talks quote or a laugh. “I was an anti-vaxxer at not even an “act of God” could keep a full from Harriet Hall on statin denialists, one point,” Lord said after Gorski’s pre- day of science-based medicine talks from Steven Novella on overly hyped neuro sentation. “In my defense, I was three kicking things off on Friday, June 30. science, and Clay Jones on folklore in years old.” NECSS is produced by the New York pediatric medicine. Former naturopathic That focus actually began the previous City Skeptics and the New England “doctor” Britt Marie Hermes questioned day, which featured interactive workshops that nomenclature, after having realized between presenters and conference she treated sick people in Africa and attendees. Longtime skeptic al activist and elsewhere with ineffective remedies. She former Air Force pilot Steve Lundquist feels guilty now, but that only makes her used his own UFO sighting as a way “I was an anti-vaxxer more driven to expose the practice. “Now to relate to believers and to show that at one point,” Lord said that I know better, I want to do better,” anyone can be fooled. Physicist Brian after Gorski’s presenta- Hermes said. Wecht and Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe Pessimism and optimism collided cohost Jay Novella led a session on the art tion. “In my defense, head-on in a final panel, with the incen- of conversation as a way to engage with I was three years old.” diary title of “Is Science-Based Medi- those with whom we disagree. cine Successful?” Gorski lamented that Back in a noncharred area of FIT, “alternative” cancer treatment purveyor NECSS got even more introspective with Stanislaw Burzynski “won’t stop until he a panel discussing the merits of the recent

8 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer [ NEWS AND COMMENT

“conceptual penis” hoax perpetrated by History Channel’s Credibility MIA Peter Boghossian and James Lindsay, in Following Amelia Earhart Special which the pair successfully published a fake paper in a peer-reviewed gender studies Benjamin Radford journal. Skeptic Zone podcaster Richard Saunders and philosophers Massimo Pigliucci and Skye Cleary wondered what the motivation of the exercise was, as it’s already known that referees (in any field) can’t check all of a paper’s references, and that most studies end up being irrelevant and never referenced. Moderator Wecht likened the hoax to “punching down,” but Cleary put a finer point on it, saying “it was mean-spirited, taking aim at a relatively new field.” Other highlights of NECSS 2017 included science communicator Sum mer Ash, NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt, and former astronaut and Big The 1937 disappearance of pioneer Earhart might not have crashed Bang Theory guest star Mike Massimino . pilot Amelia Earhart and her naviga- into the Pacific at all, but crash- A panel called “Journalism in the Age of tor Fred Noonan in the Pacific Ocean landed in the Marshall Islands, Alternative Facts and Fake News,” with was captured by the Japanese mil- has been the subject of continuing itary and died while being held contributors Helaine Olen (recently) of research, debate, and speculation— prisoner on the island of Saipan. Slate, Nina Burleigh of Newsweek, Snopes most recently in a July 9 show titled managing editor Brooke Binkowski, Amelia Earhart: The Lost Evidence. The much-touted new evidence is and moderator John Rennie, received Here is the History Channel’s expla- a photo found by retired federal agent the main conference’s only standing nation of the show’s premise: Les Kinney in the National Archives ovation—on a Sunday afternoon, no less! apparently taken at the Jaluit Atoll in The biggest attraction for veteran Buried in the National Archives the Marshall Islands. A ship can be for nearly 80 years, a newly redis- skeptics may have been the special, covered photo may hold the key seen towing a barge, and there are standalone “Evening with James Randi,” to solving one of history’s all-time several people on a nearby dock. The which was open to the public and drew greatest mysteries. On July 2, 1937, show claims that two of the people a crowd upward of 600 people. The near the end of her pioneering pictured are Earhart and Noonan, legendary figure showed he’s still got flight around the world, Amelia and another even blurrier image in it by performing an escape trick and Earhart vanished somewhere over the Pacific Ocean. . . . Now, the background is their plane. Much “overdosing” on a homeopathic remedy, new evidence has surfaced in U.S. of this hinges on cutting-edge facial but he made educating the younger government archives suggesting recognition software. If the photo is generation the focus of his presentation. Randi continued this thought on a Sunday panel led by entertainer George Hrab that asked what a “skeptic coming of age ceremony” would look like, when he recounted the wonder he felt as a child upon learning that to look at a celestial body, due to the finite speed of light, was akin to peering into the past. “More kids need to be stunned,” Randi said. Russ Dobler is the science editor for the website AiPT! Comics, where he highlights the intersection of skepticism and pop culture, and a member of the New York City Skeptics. He can be found on Twitter @russdobler46. PHOTOGRPAH BY U.S. NATIONAL ARCHIVES, THE NEW YORK TIMES, REDUX

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2017 9 Imagine a future where science and reason serve as the foundation for our lives.

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Then speak to your trusted financial advisor or attorney. It’s as simple as that. IT’S EASY Call Martina Fern today at1-800-818-7071 x426 for your copy of this valuable information, or e-mail her at [email protected]. There’s no obligation. [ NEWS AND COMMENT what it’s claimed to be, it means that the “lost” pair were alive and well on a dock in the Marshall Islands in 1937. That still doesn’t fully explain where they went after the photo was taken, and as noted the show suggests they were captured by the Japanese and died in prison on Saipan—a fact that the U.S. government knew about and covered up. This idea is only one of many theories put forth over the years—and widely rejected for lack of evidence. While Earhart’s precise fate remains unknown, the most widely accepted explanation is also the most mundane: they ran out of fuel and their plane crashed much into what is ultimately a very into the vast Pacific Ocean. In an effort limited and inconclusive data set. The to breathe life (and ratings) into a the- photograph at the heart (and referenced ory heavy on speculation but light on There’s nothing wrong in the title) of Amelia Earhart: The Lost evidence, the History Channel offered Evidence is simply not good evidence of what they claimed was something akin with guesses and theo- anything relating to Earhart; links to to a smoking gun: a blurry photograph ries—as long as they are her are based purely on speculation and of what might or might not be Earhart presented as such and conjecture. There’s nothing wrong with and Noonan. guesses and theories—as long as they are Doubts were raised about that ex- not all-but-verified facts. presented as such and not all-but-veri- planation before the show aired and fied facts. Absent strong corroborating quickly escalated afterward. As National evidence, one theory is as good as the Geographic explained in a July 11 article, next. Add some confirmation bias and “New evidence indicates that the pho- failure to question assumptions and ver- tograph was published in a 1935 Japa- before Earhart’s final flight. Yamano said ify facts, and you’ve got another cable nese-language travelogue about the is- in an interview: “I find it strange that channel failure. lands of the South Pacific. As Japanese the documentary makers didn’t confirm The show takes great pains to military history blogger Kota Yamano the date of the photograph or the pub- demonstrate that the photograph had noted in a July 9 post, he found the book lication in which it originally appeared. not been altered or retouched, which is after searching the National Diet Li- That’s the first thing they should have a good first step in authentication but brary, Japan’s national library, using the done.” The History Channel promised sheds no light whatsoever on the key term ‘Jaluit Atoll,’ the location featured viewers in a July 9 tweet that “after to- issue of whether the image depicts Ear- in the photograph” (see https://tinyurl. night, the story of Amelia Earhart will hart and Noonan. There was never any com/y8s67f4r). no longer have a question mark.” This reason to doubt the image’s authentic- Instead of being hidden in a secret prediction turned out to be prophetic; ity in the first place, and surely a pho- archive deep in the guarded National indeed, the single question mark has tographic faker trying to deceive could Security vaults, the image popped up since been replaced by dozens of ques- have crafted a much better likeness of on the first page of search results: “His tion marks—ranging from the integrity both aviators. In a statement, the His- search query turned up the travelogue, of the History Channel to the compe- tory Channel said that it has a team of The Ocean’s ‘Lifeline’: The Condition tence of its on-air researchers. investigators “exploring the latest de- of Our South Seas, which features the While skeptics, historians, and sen- velopments about Amelia Earhart” and ‘Earhart’ photograph on page 44. One sible people can revel in a touch of promised transparency in their findings, translation of the caption describes a schadenfreude, a closer look at the show concluding that “ultimately historical ac- lively port that regularly hosted schoo- is warranted. There are surely some ex- curacy is most important to us and our ner races—with no mention of Earhart ecutives at the History Channel who— viewers.” or Noonan to be found. Page 113 of the like the general public—are wondering book indicates that the travelogue was how their program could have gone so Benjamin Radford is deputy editor of Skepti- published in October 1935.” spectacularly off the rails. Perhaps the cal Inquirer magazine and author or coau- This of course poses a problem be- most glaring error is over-interpreting thor of ten books. He has investigated—and cause the photo was published two years ambiguous evidence and reading too solved—dozens of international mysteries.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2017 11 [SPECIAL REPORT

The Roswell Incident at 70: Facts, Not Myths

KENDRICK FRAZIER

he seventieth anniversary of the so-called Roswell In it I simply pointed out some key facts the article failed Incident came and went this past summer with a to mention. It may be worth reminding you, our readers, of Trefreshing lack of fuss. One might even hope to think those and a few others as well. the passions it evokes among believers that a flying saucer What rancher W.W. (Mac) Brazel reported finding on crashed on a ranch in south-central New Mexico back in his ranch, sixty miles northwest of Roswell, was simply this: July 1947 have, over time, finally waned. But the rationalists debris consisting of a large number of pieces of paper cov- in us realize that is not likely. Maybe they are just tired and ered with a foil-like substance and pieced together with small will be back again after a rest. sticks, much like a kite. And also some pieces of gray rubber That’s kind of what happened with Roswell. It was a big (my emphasis). All were small. Hardly some high-tech alien story back in early July 1947 for a few days, but then when the flying saucer! Air Force announced that what the rancher found was related The reporter should have told readers what we now know to balloon flights and not to anything more mysterious, the (almost certainly) the debris to have been: remnants of a long story disappeared from public discourse until it was resurrected vertical “train” of research balloons and equipment launched by again by several unscrupulous writers in the early 1980s. New York University atmospheric researchers and not recov- From your editor’s vantage point as a Roswell-watcher ered—specifically, Flight No. 4. The research team launched from Albuquerque, only about a hundred air miles from the NYU Flight 4 on June 4, 1947, from Alamogordo Army Air supposed crash site, the most noticeable recent blip on the Field and tracked it flying east-northeast toward Corona, New radar was an anniversary story by the Carlsbad Current-Argus Mexico. It was within seventeen miles of the Brazel ranch reprinted in the July 8 Albuquerque Journal and titled “Roswell when the tracking batteries failed and contact was lost. Incident Lives on 70 Years Later.” New York University’s role in launching the “con- The largest newspaper in the state, the Albuquerque Journal stant-level” research balloons was unclassified. In the 1990s, has been noticeably free of sensationalism about Roswell for it was learned that the mission also had a classified purpose, a long time. This reprinted story was a bit of an anomaly. It called “Project Mogul,” to learn whether such balloons could basically recounted the myth and various claims believers have take highly sensitive microphones and keep them at a level in put forth about it since but unfortunately gave no information the atmosphere (the tropopause) where they might be able that explains the origin story. to detect acoustic signals channeled round the Earth from That moved me to write a letter to the Journal that, to Soviet nuclear tests. their credit, they published as a short op-ed piece in their On the evening of February 8, 1995, I was present at a Sunday, July 16, edition, “Roswell Myth Lives on Despite meeting in Albuquerque of New Mexicans for Science and the Established Facts.” (Available online at https://www.abq Reason (NMSR) when the man who helped launch Flight journal.com/1033584/roswell-myth-lives-on-despite-the-es- 4, Professor Charles B. Moore, showed us some of what was tablished-facts.html.) on that flight. In 1947, Moore was an NYU graduate student,

12 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer working on the balloon launches. He spent the rest of his Flight 4, and published in the above-mentioned Skeptical career as a respected professor of atmospheric physics at New Inquirer article (Figure 2 here), requires three vertical col- Mexico Tech in Socorro. umns to display all the components. They include three radar NMSR is the local science-oriented skeptics group in Al- reflectors, various measuring instruments, and twenty-four buquerque. I helped found it in 1990, based on CSICOP’s separate balloons. Charles Moore told us the whole intercon- inspiration, and it has been headed for years now by physicist/ nected array extended a vertical distance of 700 to 800 feet. mathematician and Committee for Skeptical Inquiry Fellow So the common explanation of “weather balloon” is quite the Dave Thomas. Thomas works in Socorro and also teaches a understatement. course on pseudoscience there at New Mexico Tech. Some additional points: The director of research for the In addition to Thomas and me (and many others), phys- NYU balloon-launch experiments in 1947 was famous New icist and CSI Fellow Mark Boslough told me recently that York University geophysicist and meteorologist Athelstan he remembers being in the audience at that remarkable 1995 Spilhaus. I knew Spilhaus when I was editor of Science News evening meeting. in the 1970s because he then was on the Board of Trustees Moore brought with him a radar reflector like the three that of Science Service, Science News’s publisher. I knew noth- were attached to Flight 4. Specifically, they were Signal Corps ing about Roswell then. Spilhaus died in 1998 at the age of ML 307B RAWIN targets. It looked much like a box kite but eighty-six. with some angular surfaces. The sticks and metallic paper are similar to what Brazel described. The rubber Brazel noted was similar to the neoprene balloons used to carry equipment aloft. The radar reflectors contained small metal eyelets, similar to those Brazel had described on the debris he found. Moore also provided a new and very telling detail. The re- Figure 1. “Abstract flower-like designs” on toy-factory tape used on the NYU radar targets. inforcing tape used on the NYU targets had curious markings; UFO believers later described these markings on the debris Brazel discovered as “hieroglyphics,” implying some form of alien writing. In fact, Moore told us the tape had been pur- In 2009 when his son, Fred Spilhaus, retired from his long- chased from a New York City toy factory and the symbols on time position as executive director of the American Geophys- the tape were “abstract flower-like” designs made to appeal to ical Union in Washington, D.C., he wrote whimsically that kids (Figure 1). his father was the man responsible for the Roswell Incident These and other established facts of the Roswell incident (Physics Today, February 2009, quoted in the May/June 2009 will of course never catch up with the charming myth. It is Skeptical Inquirer). Athelstan Spilhaus was quite a color- understandable that UFO believers and Roswell city boosters ful character. He is the only scientist I have ever heard of who will promote the myth as possible reality (wink, wink), but, as had his own Sunday newspaper comic strip. Titled “Our New I wrote in my op-ed, “in this day of ‘fake news,’ let’s not be a Age,” it ran in color in 110 newspapers all over the world from party to that.” 1958 until 1975. When President Kennedy met Spilhaus in All these facts, and many more supporting details, have 1962, JFK told him, “The only science I ever learned was been widely available since the mid-to-late 1990s in various from your comic strip in the Boston Globe” (see http://www. scholarly publications. They include a book that Charles smithsonianmag.com/history/sunday-funnies-blast-off-into- Moore himself coauthored with two anthropology professors, the-space-age-81559551/). UFO Crash at Roswell: The Genesis of a Modern Myth, Benson If what Brazel found was so mundane, why did someone Saler, Charles A. Ziegler, and Charles B. Moore (Smithso- think it had to do with a crashed “flying saucer”? The reason is nian Institution Press, 1997); The UFO Invasion, a Skepti- that the term flying saucer had just hit the news media for the cal Inquirer anthology I coedited with Barry Karr and Joe first time. On June 24, 1947, pilot Kenneth Arnold reported a Nickell (Prometheus Books, 1996), which includes David E. series of what he described as boomerang-shaped objects fly- Thomas’s special report from the July/August 1995 Skepti- ing up and down near Washington’s Mt. Rainier. He said they cal Inquirer “The Roswell Incident and Project Mogul” and “flew erratic, like a saucer if you skip it across the water,” and many other Roswell-related articles; and two U.S. Air Force from then on the term flying saucer took hold, even though he investigative reports, Report of Air Force Research Regarding the never said they looked like saucers (see Robert Sheaffer, The ‘Roswell Incident’ (1994) and The Roswell Report: Case Closed, UFO Verdict, Prometheus Books, 1998, p. 15). This started Headquarters United States Air Force, written by Capt. James a media frenzy and people began looking to the skies and McAndrew, 1997. seeing things they’d never seen before (including over New The NYU balloon flight assemblages were huge. The Mexico) and reporting more “flying discs” or “flying saucers.” diagram Moore supplied in his talk for Flight 2, similar to Many possible explanations for Arnold’s sighting have been

Skeptical Inquirer November/December 2017 13 suggested. In their May/June 2014 Skeptical Inquirer cover article “Mount Rainier: Saucer Magnet,” James Mc- Gaha and Joe Nickell describe McGaha’s hypothesis that it was due to optical phenomena called “mountain-top mirages.” (I wonder if at least some of the “flying disc” sightings in New Mexico were reflections of sunlight off the huge NYU/Project Mogul balloon assemblages being launched fairly regularly.) Brazel had been persuaded that the debris he had found might have something to do with the reports of “flying discs” that were then exciting everyone. His report was made public in Roswell July 8, 1947, at the height of the craze. A public affairs officer at the local army air field was excited about the find and so made the now-famous announce- ment that it had something to do with saucer sightings, without further checking. That made front-page news. By then Brazel said he was amazed at the fuss and sorry he said anything about it. Ironically, the report of what Brazel actually found, an explanation that it was a “weather balloon”(not quite right but kind of close), and the date he had found it, June 14, before the media frenzy of sightings started—all are reported in an Associated Press article published on page 2 in the July 9, 1947, Carlsbad Current-Argus (“‘Flying Disc’ turns Out to Be Weather Balloon”; I have a copy of it, see Figure 3). This is the same newspaper that unfortunately seemed to forget those facts in their July 2017 anniversary article. Figure 2. Diagram of balloon train from NYU Flight 2, similar to that of In the subsequent mythmaking, one of the main sensation- Flight 4, debris from which seems to have stimulated the original Roswell alist books (The Roswell Incident, Charles Berlitz and William Incident. L. Moore, 1980) claimed that the debris was from a flying saucer that passed over Roswell the evening of July 2, 1947. But in fact Brazel had found the debris much earlier, on June 14, just ten days after the NYU team had lost track of Flight 4, headed toward his ranch. (“This blows the whole yarn out of the water,” wrote James Moseley in his Saucer Smear newsletter, v. 29, No. 4, May 15, 1982.) Back then these “flying discs” didn’t have the associations they have today. Nobody knew what they might be (and indeed some reports at the time did suggest that they were meteorological phenomena, or delusions, or mass hysteria, or visual misinterpretations of things seen in the skies). The idea of alien spacecraft hadn’t gained hold yet. At best the concern was that if they were physical craft at all, they might be Soviet or even holdover Nazi aircraft. In the 1980s and early 1990s, the mythmaking process really took off. More fantastic and wild stories emerged (or were concocted) in a process familiar to folklorists. Three out- and-out hoaxes were widely publicized, then exposed. As for reports of sightings of alien bodies, the second (1997) U.S. Air Force report investigated and found there Atmospheric sciences professor Charles B. Moore in 1995 demonstrating were no contemporary reports of alien bodies being found to New Mexicans for Science and Reason a radar reflector like the three in 1947. These (unverified) reports came only in UFO books that were on NYU Flight 4, tracked heading toward the ranch where Mac and articles published after 1978. Brazel reported finding similar debris on June 14, 1947. (Photo by Dave Thomas) The Air Force report describes in detail a long series of Air Force experiments over decades in which instrumented

14 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer lifelike anthropomorphic dummies were dropped out of high- altitude research balloons over New Mexico. This began in the 1950s and continued for many years. Most were launched over Holloman Air Force Base or the White Sands Missile Range, but the balloons soon floated beyond those bound- aries. The idea was to measure the effects of extreme envi- ronments and situations deemed too hazardous for a human being (page 17). Such instrumented crash-test dummies were not familiar at that time, and the report suggests that one “very likely could be mistaken for an alien.” This conclusion was widely ridiculed by UFO believers at the time, but the report gives a large amount of supporting detail and shows dozens of photographs. That explanation, to most fair-minded observers, has stood the test of time. Among the kinds of eye-witness statements that support the crash-test dummies explanation were statements such as “his eyes were open, staring blankly,” “their skin coloration . . . a bluish-tinted milky white.” At

If what Brazel found was so mundane, why did someone think it had to do with a crashed “flying saucer”? The reason is that the term flying saucer had just hit the news Figure 3. Associated Press article published July 9, 1947, reporting that media for the first time. the debris rancher Mac Brazel had found on June 14 (long before the July 2 “flying saucer” sighting over Roswell) consisted of “pieces of paper with a foil-like substance, and pieced together with small sticks, much like a kite.” Plus “pieces of grey rubber. All were small.” (Author’s collection.)

other times, the report says, injured airmen, some seriously What did happen, he said, is that these high-altitude drops so, were brought to the Roswell base after accidents, and it of humanlike dummies contributed to the Roswell myth. “Ab- suggests some reports are mixed-up remembrances of those. solutely they did. These dummies we dropped from balloons One last piece of corroborating testimony: In 2001 journalist were dressed in pressure suits, so they looked unusual.” (These Guy P. Harrison interviewed Joe Kittinger (Colonel, U.S. Air quotes are from Chapter 13 of Harrison’s excellent 2012 book, Force, ret.), one of the great aviation pioneers of the twentieth 50 Popular Beliefs That People Think Are True [Prometheus century. In 1960 Kittinger had jumped out of a balloon over Books], and I relate them here with his permission.) New Mexico from the very upper edge of the atmosphere “One time we dropped one and it fell way up in the moun- (102,800 feet, or nineteen miles). In a free fall that lasted four tains,” Kittinger said. “These dummies weighed more than two minutes, he reached a speed of 600 miles per hour. hundred fifty pounds. So how do you carry one out of the Harrison was mainly interested in those kinds of real ad- mountains? We put it on a stretcher and carried it in the back ventures, but he hesitantly asked Kittinger about Roswell. of an ambulance to take away. Now if somebody is back in the “It never happened,” Kittinger said, and went on to describe weeds watching this they are going to say, ‘Wow, look at that alien they have there.’ We think that a lot of the alien sightings the events involving the NYU balloon experiments I have n reported here. “The so-called alien spaceship was that bal- were actually us doing our work with the test dummies.” loon. . . . A lot of people want to believe it was aliens, and they want to believe there was a big cover-up. But I’ll tell you, it Kendrick Frazier is editor of the Skeptical Inquirer and observes the never happened.” skies and Roswell-related events from his home office in Albuquerque.

Skeptical Inquirer November/December 2017 15 [COMMENTARY

Is Eating Vegetables Truly Safe? An Examination into Contemporary Anti-Vaccination Arguments

CRAIG A. FOSTER

ohn Oliver recently criticized the anti-vaccination As a psychologist, I can see how Kennedy’s message movement on Last Week Tonight. Oliver humorously pleases those who maintain anti-vaccination beliefs. I can also Jpointed out some of the major flaws with the anti-vac- imagine that his message might interest moderates, possibly cination view. Vaccines have saved millions of lives. There starting their dissent down the anti-vaccination side of the is a difference between correlation and causation. There pyramid, never to return (see Tavris and Aronson 2017). Ken- is no evidence that vaccines containing thimerosal are nedy’s arguments, however, are pseudoscientific. They appeal unsafe. There is no evidence that vaccination causes autism. psychologically but fail scientifically. I will use a different ap- Arguments suggesting that there is no proof of vaccination proach to expose their false appeal. I compiled contemporary safety can be used unfairly. anti-vaccination arguments using Kennedy’s comments on Tucker Carlson Tonight, on his organization’s web page, and in his vaccine challenge (Foster 2017). I then applied these arguments to a different but familiar public health context. This demonstration reveals that these anti-vaccination arguments can be used to circumvent the scientific evidence and, Kennedy’s arguments, however, in doing so, they can be absurdly misleading and dangerous. are pseudoscientific. They appeal psychologically but fail scientifically. The Kennedy Anti-Vaccination Argument—By Analogy I am writing to warn you about consuming vegetables. I didn’t want to get involved. I could have put my head in the sand and pretended that the problem didn’t exist. I had no choice. If I could save just one child from the harm associated with eating vegetables, then it was my responsibility to protect that child. Of course, I am not against eating Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was one of the people mentioned by vegetables. I have eaten vegetables. My children have eaten Oliver as supporting anti-vaccination. Kennedy responded to vegetables. I am concerned that we might not be promoting Oliver’s “attack” on Tucker Carlson Tonight. Kennedy went to the right kind of vegetable consumption. his usual playbook (Mnookin 2017). He is sacrificing himself Scientists will tell you that eating vegetables is safe, but to warn others about vaccination. He has some sympathy for there still isn’t enough research to be certain. For instance, existing research but questions its thoroughness. He implies there is no study examining all of the different combinations that the increase in the number of vaccinations has some- of vegetables that people typically consume. Research suggests thing to do with the corresponding revenue generated by the that eating broccoli is safe, but what about eating broccoli pharmaceutical industry and refers vaguely to reports of the and carrots, or carrots and corn? We just won’t know whether CDC’s corruption. He suggests that there is some type of eating vegetables is completely safe until this kind of research media bias against him and that he is just trying to get an- has been conducted more thoroughly. swers to questions. Scientists and the vegetable farming industry profit hand-

16 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer somely from telling the public that eating vegetables is good other children directly; other children are most likely to be for them. According to the United States Department of affected by having to pay the healthcare costs resulting from Agriculture (USDA), “The value of utilized production for children who grew up eating too many cupcakes and not 2016 vegetable crops was 13.4 billion dollars” (United States enough collard greens. In contrast, when parents withhold Department of Agriculture 2017, p. 7). Big Farma makes even vaccinations from children who are ready for them, they more money for every additional vegetable that people con- increase the likelihood of others becoming harmed. sume. In the 1950s, ’60s, and ’70s, government-sponsored food Anti-vaccination proponents will probably argue that the guides placed meat consumption on par with eating fruits and analogy does not hold because the scientific evidence sur- vegetables together. Contemporary food guides encourage rounding vaccination is unclear. If anti-vaccination supporters more vegetables than “protein” (Center for Nutrition Policy want to discuss the scientific evidence supporting vaccination and Promotion 2011). People are obviously listening. Nobody safety and the consequences of not being vaccinated, I would ate Buddha Bowls when I was growing up. Now, InStyle has welcome the discussion. The evidence supporting vaccination included this “plant-based deliciousness” as a trendy food for is overwhelming and comes from a variety of sources (for 2017 (Lustig 2016). appetizers see, Gerber and Offit 2009; Offit and Moser 2011; The USDA is corrupt. Several USDA employees have Taylor et al. 2014). Anti-vaccination supporters do not dis- been arrested for accepting bribes in return for downgrading cuss legitimate scientific evidence because they do not have a produce (Smith 1999). These criminal acts demonstrate that legitimate scientific case. The anti-vaccination movement is the USDA cannot be trusted. Is asparagus really better for therefore pressed into making pseudoscientific arguments— you than bacon thickly coated with brown sugar? There is no arguments that might convince themselves and others, despite way to really know. scientific evidence to the contrary. I hope that the analogous use of these anti-vaccination arguments will alert people to I just want answers to questions, but the media wants to n silence my representation of the vegetable-injured community. their infectious nature. Eat your vegetables. Many members of the media eat vegetables themselves and References they have a vested interest in maintaining the pro-vegetable Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion. 2011. A Brief History of USDA status quo. I contacted Anderson Cooper 360 about being on Food Guides. Available online at https://www.choosemyplate.gov/brief- the show to discuss my concerns. At the time I wrote this history-usda-food-guides. Foster, C.A. 2017. The $100,000 vaccine challenge: Another method of commentary, they still weren’t willing to have me on. Clearly, promoting anti-vaccination pseudoscience. Vaccine 35(32): 3905–3906. Anderson Cooper is just another mainstream talking head Gerber, J.S., and P.A. Offit. 2009. Vaccines and autism: A tale of shifting who is unwilling to discuss the tough issues. hypotheses. Clinical Infectious Diseases 48(4): 456–461. Lustig, H. 2016. These will be the trendiest foods of 2017, according to This type of prejudice against anti-veggers is not limited to Pinterest. InStyle.com (December 26). Available online at http://www. journalists. The concerns raised by me and other loving par- instyle.com/lifestyle/food-drink/trendiest-foods-2017-according-pinter- ents are routinely shouted down by angry pro-vegetable mobs. est. Mnookin, S. 2017. How Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., distorted vaccine science. These intolerant attacks are unfair. We just want to have a Scientific American ( January 11). Available online at https://www. discussion about vegetable safety and parents’ right to choose. scientificamerican.com/article/how-robert-f-kennedy-jr-distorted-vaccine-science1/. Offit, P.A., and C.A. Moser. 2011. Vaccines and Your Child: Separating Fact Conclusion from Fiction. New York: Columbia Smith, D. 1999. 21 Arrested for Bribery in Corrupt Food Grading Scheme. This type of argument falsely conveys innocence because Available online at https://www.usda.gov/oig/webdocs/oig42.htm. it seems limited to raising concerns about ensuring safety. Tavris, C. and E. Aronson. 2017. Whey we believe—long after we shouldn’t. Skeptical Inquirer 41(2): 51–53. What could be wrong with that? What’s wrong is that Taylor, L.E., A.L. Swerdfeger, and G.D. Eslick. 2014. Vaccines are not asso- the argument irresponsibly ignores the consequences of ciated with autism: An evidence-based meta-analysis of case-control and creating unrealistic fears about vegetation or vaccination. cohort studies. Vaccine 32(29): 3623–3629. United States Department of Agriculture. 2017. Vegetables 2016 If people decrease or omit vegetable consumption, they are Summary. Available online at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/ not safer. They have needlessly created a poorly balanced current/VegeSumm/VegeSumm-02-22-2017_revision.pdf. diet. Likewise, the alternative to receiving vaccinations is to be less vaccinated or unvaccinated. Thus, encouraging unfounded vaccination fears makes children who are subse- Craig A. Foster is a professor of psychology in the Department of Behavioral Sciences and quently unvaccinated less safe. It is comparable to encourag- Leadership at the United States Air Force Acad- ing parents to replace field greens with fugu and assuming emy. that the potential ingestion of fugu poison is not really dangerous because it is natural, organic, and non-GMO. There is, of course, one critical difference between anti- The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily vegetation and anti-vaccination arguments. Parents who reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force Academy, the Air limit their children’s exposure to vegetables do not affect Force, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.

Skeptical Inquirer November/December 2017 17 [ INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL Joe Nickell, PhD, is a former mentalist and magician, detective, and author, now well into his fifth decade as an investigator of strange mysteries.

Mystery of Mollie Fancher, ‘The Fasting Girl,’ and Others Who Lived without Eating

an people live for years with- upon he “fasted for forty days and forty hibiting the stigmata, weeping bloody out food? Some have claimed to, nights.” Then he experienced encoun- tears, experiencing visions of the Vir- Cincluding certain holy persons. ters with the devil, after which “angels gin Mary, undergoing miraculous cures, One nineteenth-century marvel in came and ministered to Him.” and avoiding all food and drink except Brooklyn alleged not only to have lived The hermit. In the early Christian daily Communion. Suspicious Catholic without sustenance but to have expe- Gnostic era (the first few centuries authorities, however, found that blood rienced a nine-year trance state, pos- ce), hermits—mostly male—practiced would only flow from her wounds when sessed clairvoyant abilities, and recov- asceticism, leaving civilization and sub- an appointed observer was persuaded ered from paralysis and blindness. She sisting on bread and water while con- to leave the room. Tests of her urine was Mollie Fancher, a woman whose templating the world’s end. gave expected results for the period well-nourished body made her seem The fasting saint. Spanning the thir- of her monitoring but then returned to some even more remarkable (see teenth to seventeenth centuries, a fad to normal—consistent with resuming Figure 1). I came across her name years of lengthy religious fasting developed, intake of food and drink. She refused ago at a spiritualist village where some attracting women, the most notable to undergo further surveillance (Nickell of the embroidery she produced while example of whom was Caterina Ben- 1993, 223, 227–228). supposedly entranced is displayed incasa, later Saint Catherine of Siena The starving wonder. The nineteenth (Figure 2). Revisits there prompted (1347–1380). She joined a Dominican century saw a number of supposed me to look further into the bizarre order at sixteen, practiced flagellation, prodigies who claimed to have lived world of the fasting enigmas, partic- imagined torture by demons, and ex- for years without food. Albeit religious, ularly Mollie herself, and to assess the perienced visions. She exhibited the they were presented more as wonders authenticity of her many claims. stigmata at age twenty-eight, though than as holy persons. They included the marks conveniently disappeared, Ann Moore, “The Fasting Woman of and she was left only with the pain of Tutburg,” who allegedly did not eat The Fasting Phenomenon her “invisible” wounds (Nickell 1993, from 1807 to 1813, but who was later Extreme fasting has been practiced 225–226). In his book Holy Anorexia, exposed as a fraud and confessed, and since ancient times in a variety of cul- Professor Rudolph M. Bell (1985) at- Sarah Jacob, “The Welsh Fasting Girl,” tural forms. Here is a brief overview of tributes Catherine’s suffering to “an who at the age of about fourteen was some of the main types of self-starving eating/vomiting pattern typical of acute briefly a celebrity but then submitted people. anorexia.” Being vainglorious, he says, to an investigative watch by a medi- The visionary. In Biblical times, she “starved herself to death.” She was cal committee and actually starved to those seeking holy visions typically subsequently canonized. (See also An- death in December 1869 (Stacey 2003, went into the wilderness to fast. Ac- orexia Mirabilis 2017.) 205–216). cording to Matthew 4:1–11, Jesus “was A very late example of this type was The “living skeleton.” Another nine- led up by the Spirit into the wilderness Therese Neumann (1898–1962), who teenth-century phenomenon was rep- to be tempted by the devil,” where- had a surprising variety of claims: ex- resented by sideshow artists, the pro-

18 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer totype of which was Isaac Sprague, coma-like “trance” states that lasted for version of Mollie herself, called “Sun- featured by P.T. Barnum. These skin- hours. In addition, she suffered fainting beam,” they were Idol, Rosebud, Pearl, and-bones men, or “living skeletons,” spells, loss of appetite, and even vomit- and Ruby (Dailey 1894, 18–79; Stacey as they were often styled, became coming when food or medicine was taken. 2003, 44–56, 63–70). mon in the latter part of the century but Eventually, she experienced near deaf- Mollie’s broader fame really began declined in the next. They were invari- ness, “blindness” (while seeing “clair- in 1878 when some of her embroidery ably male and like their counterparts, voyantly” to embroider and to read became part of an art loan exhibition the fat ladies, made their living by an books), bouts of paralysis, and so on. in Buffalo, New York. She was singled extreme response to food (Nickell 2005, out by the New York Herald as “An In- 101–105). Franz Kafka featured one valid Lady Who for Fourteen Years such skeleton man in his 1924 story, “A Has Lived Without Nourishment”— Hunger Artist.” although it was actually twelve and The anorexic. First described scien- By modern standards, a half years according to family and tifically in 1868, anorexia nervosa is a Mollie Fancher was not friends. Her personal doctor told the “persistent lack of appetite and refusal anorexic—that is, did Herald that Mollie had had no solid of food resulting from emotional con- food since her horsecar accident. He flict” (Goldenson 1970, 83–85). Once not suffer from anorexia had of course been suspicious, but he rare, half a century after flappers made nervosa since she could never catch Mollie secretly eating popular a boyishly thin figure for was not obsessed (Stacey 2003, 81–87). Not everyone was women, cases of the disorder increased. quite so easily persuaded, however, and The breatharian. In 1980, one Wiley with being thin. soon the story of Mollie Fancher be- Brooks founded a cult that espoused came a lively debate between believers reverting from carnivorism to vegetari- and skeptics. anism, thence to fruitarianism, liquidar- By modern standards, Mollie Fancher ianism, and finally to breatharianism— was not anorexic—that is, did not suffer ending eating and drinking altogether. from anorexia nervosa since she was not The health cultists’ faith in Brooks was When Mollie eventually came to obsessed with being thin. I would put badly shaken when he was discovered the public’s awareness, she said that her in the earlier-mentioned category slipping out at night to buy junk food she had been in a trance for nine years of “the starving wonder.” Thus she was (Stang 1988, 33). during which she had no recollections. “emblematic of other neurotic girls of her Meanwhile she had undergone re- era,” as well as a harbinger of succeeding markable transformations: in addition Mollie Fancher fasters (Stacey 2003, 185). to developing eyeless sight, she could The story of Mary Jane “Mollie” supposedly converse with the dead and Fancher (1848–1916) properly begins Toward a Diagnosis abstain completely from food. Less well on June 8, 1865, when the eighteen- known was another trait: she exhibited Dr. William A. Hammond (1879), year-old suffered a streetcar accident. a neurologist, regarded such “fasting On a shopping trip in Brooklyn, she multiple personalities—from no fewer girls”—those who claimed to live with- stepped from the horse-drawn trolley than five different individuals, each out food—as suffering from hysteria. only to have her crinoline skirt get with their own name. In addition to a caught and thus be dragged for almost a block over paving stones. The accident occurred just when Mollie was on the brink of marriage, and it may have been just the excuse she needed to avoid it. She had earlier been diagnosed with “dyspepsia,” a catch-all term that described a variety of ills from nervous indigestion to hysteria (Dailey 1894, 14–17, 29; Stacey 2003, 17–21). Now, although recovering from her injuries and being cared for by the maiden aunt who raised her, Mollie began to experience a textbook’s fill of ailments: various pains, contraction of leg muscles, a weak arm, failing eyesight, and spasms alternating with Figure 1. Mollie Fancher, looking plump, with her aunt in 1886. (From Mollie Fancher, the Brooklyn Enigma.)

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2017 19 He thought that condition, in Mollie have sought to escape. Carried to her enough to allay the suspicions of her Fancher’s case, was brought on by her home in Brooklyn, she never left the mostly credulous visitors. accident and its aftereffects. Another house again—appearing in retrospect On this apparent pretense she built critic, George Beard (“the father of to have been claimed by neurosis— her claim for clairvoyant vision. To con- neurasthenia”) essentially agreed, attrib- and continuing to be cared for by her vince others she really could not see, she uting her condition to nervous exhaus- guardian, her late mother’s sister, Susan closed her eyes tightly. However, it was tion with “attacks of ecstasy, which, like E. Crosby. Thus, she avoided responsi- usually “quite dark where she lay,” which catalepsy, is but another term for one bilities as well as becoming the subject probably did more to keep people from of the many phases of trance” (Beard of much attention and interest—by seeing that her eyes only appeared fully 1878). More recently, a professor of doctors, clergy, and the public. And she closed than it did to retard her sight. psychiatry and behavioral neurobiology, invented various ways to keep her life (When someone came close, she might Charles Ford, concluded that Mollie exciting (Stacey 2003, 5–70, 284–288). well have shut them firmly.) Thus she likely had conversion disorder (what Studying Mollie’s background we would describe the person’s appearance used to be called “hysteria”), coupled see that she had many traits associated or draw her thumb over a page of text with dissociative identity disorder (the with what is now called a “fantasy-prone and say the words as she allegedly “saw” personality.” Such persons are sane and new name for having multiple person- them with “second sight” (Dailey 1894, normal but may possess several of some 31, 126, 187, 208). thirteen associated characteristics, Often one had to take her word for including (like Mollie) having a rich some accomplished feat. For instance, fantasy life, supposedly possessing someone entering her room and finding psychic powers, experiencing vivid her apparently idle might ask her to ex- dreams and apparitional encounters, plain. “Oh, I am reading such and such receiving messages from higher entities, a book,” she would say. having alternate identities, being highly “Well, where is it?” suggestible, and so on (Wilson and “Under the bedclothes, here,” where- Barber 1983; Baker and Nickell 1992). upon she would produce it and speak Mollie appears to have had an ex- knowledgeably of its contents (Dailey traordinary impulse to fantasize, and 1894, 194). Of course, previously, she fantasizing does not preclude decep- had likely read the pages in the normal tion; indeed the two are frequent com- way. panions. For instance, consider the case Her stunts are not generally de- of Joseph Smith, the Mormon prophet, scribed well enough to deduce exactly who is included in a list of historical how she did them, but she was obvi- fantasizers (Wilson and Barber 1983, ously in control of certain situations 372) but who was also a notorious char- and took advantage of opportunities. latan (Nickell 2013, 277–283). When, for instance, Mollie divined the contents of a supposedly just-received Deception letter to her—while it was held still There are strong indications that sealed, eight feet away—one could sus- Mollie did, in fact, deceive. Using my pect the help of her aunt, Miss Crosby, background as a magician and mental- who had fetched the letter (Dailey 1894, Figure 2. Rare Mollie Fancher embroidery at Lily 211). Mollie could have secretly opened Dale, the spiritualist village in Western New York, ist, I have read accounts of Mollie’s feats visited by Joe Nickell (behind camera) and wife with interest and conclude that some of and studied the letter earlier, with Diana Harris. her tricks were so simplistic they could Crosby then merely pretending it had have fooled only the gullible. just come. There is little doubt she cod- Consider Mollie’s claim that she never dled her niece, and aiding Mollie in her slept, her “trances” being the only rest she deceptions could have been part of that. alities) (Stacey 2003, 279–284). obtained. How convenient that those As to Mollie’s astonishing claim Hammond and Beard had also could be as brief as a catnap or as long of inedia—the alleged ability to forgo sought to rule out trickery. That, I am as twenty-four hours (Dailey 1894, 192). nourishment (Nickell 1993)—that was convinced, should be our modern view. Then there was her “blindness,” palpably false. Photographs (again, see The evidence suggests that Mollie sight being one of the senses, along Figure 1) show her plumpness, which Fancher engaged in malingering and with speech and hearing, she suppos- gave the lie to her claims. Miss Crosby other deceptions—probably to opt edly lost for a time—although we may should have been aware of food missing out of reaching maturity. Her accident well suspect she was malingering. So far from the household larder, and I sus- at nearly nineteen came just in time as we can tell, she simply acted as if she pect she willingly bought whatever her to keep her from a marriage she may could not see and did it convincingly spoiled charge favored.

20 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer There is further corroborative ev- methods of scientific research, would With these physical improvements idence at hand. Mollie’s nemesis, Dr. know how to get the whole truth of her psychic powers had waned. her case, and nothing but the truth. Hammond—anticipating James Randi Another way of looking at the trans- by a century—challenged her to tests. Mollie Fancher continued her de- formation is that Miss Crosby’s absence Regarding her “second sight,” he pro- ceptions. She made an arrangement for meant Mollie no longer had an accom- posed to have her divine the number, Abram H. Daily of Brooklyn, an ex- plice for her pretenses or someone to date, bank account, and signature of a judge and spiritualist who defended ex- indulge her perpetual adolescence. She check that would be sealed in an enve- posed mediums (Kontou with Willburn herself died on February 11, 1916, and lope and kept in sight. And he intended 2012, 264), to write a book with the was buried in Brooklyn’s Green-Wood to prevent her eating by having his fel- elaborate title, Mollie Fancher, the Brook- Cemetery on February 15—that date low neurologists conduct a round-the- lyn Enigma. An Authentic Statement of sometimes being incorrectly given as n clock watch for one month. Revealingly, Facts in the Life of Mary J. Fancher, the her death date. though not surprisingly, Mollie refused Psychological Marvel of the Nineteenth References (Stacey 2003, 120–121). Century. Unimpeachable Testimony of Many Witnesses (Dailey 1894). Except Anorexia Mirabilis. 2017. [The term means “mirac- Denouement ulous lack of appetite.”] Available online at for publishing costs, the rights and pro- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anorexia— Hammond was derided by Mollie’s ceeds went to Miss Fancher who sold mirabilis; accessed August 4, 2017. copies along with a book company. A Baker, Robert A., and Joe Nickell. 1992. Missing friends and fans. One letter read: “I Pieces: How to Investigate Ghosts, UFOs, style it abuse and insult for any human copy in our CFI libraries, which Direc- Psychics & Other Mysteries. Buffalo, N.Y.: being to propose to invade the privacy tor Tim Binga entrusted to me, bears Prometheus Books. her autograph on the title page. Beard, George. 1878. The scientific lessons of of the afflicted lady’s sick room for the Mollie Fancher case. The Medical Record one month, to watch her every move- 14 (November 30): 446–448. Quoted in ment day and night and give her one Stacey 2003, 148. thousand dollars if, at the end of that Bell, Rudolph M. 1985. Holy Anorexia. Chicago: U. of Chicago Press. Quoted in Nickell 1993, time, she is not proven to be an impos- There is further corrobo- 226–227. tor. . . . To be an impostor one must rative evidence at hand. Collins, Charles. 1938. The strange case of have some motive, and Miss Fancher Mollie Fancher. Chicago Tribune (March 13). Dailey, Abram H. 1894. Mollie Fancher, the certainly can have none,” the letter Mollie’s nemesis, Brooklyn Enigma: An Authentic Statement writer said naively. When one reporter Dr. Hammond—anticipat- of Facts in the Life of Mary L. Fancher, queried Hammond as to how Mollie the Psychological Marvel of the Nineteenth ing James Randi by Century. Brooklyn, N.Y.: Eagle Book could have deceived the very learned Printing. This is an essential source for clergymen who came to support her, a century—challenged claims about Fancher. Hammond bluntly responded: “Oh, Goldenson, Robert M. 1970. The Encyclopedia her to tests. of Human Behavior, vol 1 (of 2 vols). Garden that’s nothing. Clergymen are the City, N.Y.: Doubleday. most gullible men in the world!” (Qtd. Hammond, William A. 1871. The Physics and in Stacey 2003, 123.) Physiology of Spiritualism. New York: D. Appleton. Cited in Stacey 2003, 123. Hammond had written admirably in ———. 1879. Fasting Girls: Their Physiology and his earlier critical book, The Physics and Pathology. New York: G.P. Putnam’s. Cited in Physiology of Spiritualism (1871): “Man By the time of Dailey’s book (1894, Stacey, 2003, 130. Kontou, Tatiana, with Sarah Willburn, eds. has learned to doubt, and therefore, to 215), Aunt Susan was deceased. But the Fancher house parlor continued as 2012. The Ashgate Research Companion to reason better; he makes experiments, Nineteenth-Century Spiritualism and Occult. collects facts, does not begin to theorize “a shop for the sale of souvenirs to pil- New York: Routledge. until his data are sufficient, and then is grims.” It had done a “thriving business” Nickell, Joe. 1993. Looking for a Miracle: Weeping in wax flowers that Mollie crafted, along Icons, Relics, Stigmata, Visions & Healing careful that his theories do not extend Cures. Amherst, N.Y.: Prometheus Books. beyond the foundation of certainty, or with her needlework, according to the ———. 2005. Secrets of the Sideshows. Lexington: at least of probability, upon which he Chicago Tribune (Collins 1938). Miss The University Press of Kentucky. Crosby, the paper said, “was suspected ———. 2013. The Science of Miracles. Amherst, builds.” He went on to write in his book N.Y.: Prometheus Books. Fasting Girls: Their Physiology and Path of nothing more than participation as Stang, Rev. Ian. 1988. High Weirdness by Mail. ology (1879): an accomplice in Mollie’s mind-reading New York: Simon & Schuster. acts.” Following the aunt’s death (the Stacey, Michelle. 2003. The Fasting Girl: A True Victorian Medical Mystery. New York: Jeremy If Miss Fancher has lived fourteen paper continued): years without food, or even four- P. Tarcher/Penguin. I have relied heavily on teen months, or weeks, she is a Mollie’s physical condition was this source for background. Wilson, Sheryl C., and T.X. Barber. 1983. The unique psychological or pathological notably improved. Her five person- fantasy-prone personality: Implications individual, whose case is worthy of alities had assembled into one; her for understanding imagery, hypnosis, and all the consideration which can be blindness was no longer total; she parapsychological phenomena. In Imagery: given to it, not by superstitious or could use both arms and move her Current Theory, Research and Application, ed. credulous or ignorant persons, but waist; she had found an appetite by Annes A. Sheikh. New York: Atria Wiley, by those who, trained in the proper and gained in weight and strength. 340–390.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2017 21 [ A MAGICIAN IN THE LAB JAMES RANDI James Randi began his career as a stage magician and escape artist but achieved fame as a professional skeptic, disproving the claims of self-described psychics, mind readers, and faith healers. He is a founder of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry (formerly CSICOP ). Randi’s eleventh book, A Magician in the Laboratory, will be coming out soon.

A Great And Fortuitous ‘Find’!

have recently been sent—courtesy of Skeptical Inquirer Editor IKen Frazier—a most remarkable book, edited by Dana Richards of George Mason University and copy- righted this year by World Scientific Publishing Co. This is 458 pages of closely packed texts of correspondence exchanged between the late Martin Gardner and the late Marcello Truzzi between May 1970 and April 1999. It is titled Dear Martin / Dear Marcello (see New and Notable section of this magazine, September/October 2017, p. 60). Most of my readers will know who Martin Gardner was, though fewer will recognize the Truzzi name. Marcello Truzzi (1935–2003) was the son of a very famous juggler, a man who became 1973, he started a newsletter titled Ex- zzi because he insisted on presenting a major performer with the famous Bar- plorations that dealt with occult and both sides of “paranormal” subjects, num & Bailey Circus. Marcello Truzzi pseudoscientific subjects, later a small with equal attention given to any sort became an American citizen, majored journal titled The Zetetic Scholar (the of ridiculous magical claim right along- in sociology at the University of Flor- side logical, rational, scientific consider- ida, and got his master’s degree there word zetetic means “skeptical”). When and a doctorate at Cornell. As a pro- the Committee for the Scientific Inves- ations of these claims. fessor of sociology at Eastern Michigan tigation of Claims of the Paranormal I note that there are occasional spell- University, he became very interested in (CSICOP) was founded in 1976, Tru- ing errors in this book, which may well what was known as an “occult revival,” zzi was for a time cochair with philoso- be due to Gardner’s very rapid typing which dealt with astrology, witchcraft, pher Paul Kurtz (and he was also editor style, and his individual input to this Satanism, and parapsychology, along of The Zetetic, the name under which book far exceeds that of the others. I with such accompanying nonsense this magazine was first published). But was surprised, for example, to see that as prophecy, monsters, and UFOs. In CSICOP soon parted ways with Tru- an astronomer named Clyder Tom-

22 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer baugh had contributed (it should be another time . . . “Clyde”). The index to the book is eight I hope that my readers are beginning pages of only where the names first ap- to appreciate just how damn silly the pear (and “Clyder” persists) though as Geller claims are, how he made use of expected, persons such as Shipi Strang I cannot simply recom- such facilities as those at the ordinarily and Uri Geller are very generously rep- mend the book unless serious Stanford Research Institute, and resented, alongside gems from Gardner the readers are really of people such as Puharich, who died directed at Truzzi such as: (aged seventy-seven) in abject poverty Do I recall correctly that you’d like prepared to work at at the home of a generous benefactor for me to review the Wilhelm book extracting the wisdom after falling down a flight of stairs. Of for the Zetetic? If so, let me know course, these agencies and individuals the approximate length you want it. to be found there. were sufficiently funded—often hand- It is far and away the most revealing somely—by our tax money, coasting book yet on the incompetence of P and T . . .1 along on our backs, as they say, “all the way to the bank.” Gardner, again: I cannot simply recommend the Did you know that “Doc” Tarbell2 duction to this book by Doubleday, a book unless the readers are really pre- wrote a hardcover book on physiog- publisher more often occupied by pro- pared to work at extracting the wisdom nomy, and that the “Dr” was based ducing factual literature: to be found there, and that would re- on a degree in napropathy, a weird offshoot of chiropractic? Out of the friendship between Dr. quire some considerable dedication. On page 3 you list Beloff3 as being Puharich and Uri Geller grew one of However, I’ll close this effort with a “well-informed about the method- the most extraordinary adventures sincere and warm endorsement of an- ology of magic.” Incredible! Beloff of a lifetime. Not long after their other tome that reveals the depth of an knows nothing about magic, and first meeting . . . they were contacted ancient mind of Greece: that possessed freely admits it. Take him off this list! by “Spectra,” a voice they believed to I know of no parapsychologist more represent an extraterrestrial intel- by Archimedes of Syracuse (c. 287–c. ignorant of magic. ligence called “Hoova.” This is Dr. 212 BCE). I strongly recommend The Puharich’s account of how he and Archimedes Codex published by Da Gardner was often seriously annoyed Capo Press in 2007 and now available is by Truzzi and made that very evident several languages. This remarkable man, to him: Archimedes, it can be argued, was prob- Along with your usual bashing of ably the greatest genius ever to live, his Randi, I would have liked to see range of interests being so wide and so some more bashing of Rhine for hugely productive. I’ll refer my readers his failure to allow magicians to observe tests and his refusal to pub- to Wikipedia, where so much is related lish reports of tests there were fail- about him, and next time you read this ures and his valiant efforts to avoid column, I’ll expect you to be better in- admitting cases of outright fraud . . . formed on this subject! Forgive my use of a reference to In 1998, I first saw—and handled myself, but I am fiercely proud of the with my own hands!—the palimpsest relationship I had with Gardner, whose that after hundreds of years finally sur- objection to Rhine’s habit of naming rendered its secrets due to dedicated re- “successful” subjects who performed search done at the Walters Museum in before him—but never naming those Baltimore. In fact, it was purchased, for whom he caught cheating—was such two million dollars, by a personal—and The Archimedes Palimpsest a purposeful omission. Gardner, again: anonymous—friend of mine, and then began its adventures. . . . But look it up. Geller, on (a popular daytime TV Please. show) two weeks ago, came out Uri thus became the first individ- n

in support of Puharich. He said, uals in modern history believed to There will be a quiz . . . “Every word in the book is true,” have made extended contact with and that the Popular Photography non-earthly beings; how “Hoova” Notes piece this month is the “dying gasp” explained the source of Uri’s psychic 1. Puthoff and Targ, the pair of fumblers of his enemies. powers; and what they learned about who essentially created the Uri Geller mythol- the relationship between this intelli- ogy Andrija Puharich (1918–1995) was 4 gence and the inhabitants of earth. 2. “Doc” Tarbell was author of a series of a devotee of anything labeled “paranor- instruction books for young would-be conjurers. mal,” to the extent that he produced a And yes, we also might wonder 3. John Beloff (1920–2006), a well-known UK parapsychologist book titled, Uri, A Journal of the Mystery whether Hoova might be the source of 4. No, not of burrowing animals! “Earth” is of Uri Geller. To quote from the intro- vacuum cleanahs, but that can wait for the name of our home planet!

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2017 23 [ NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD MASSIMO POLIDORO Massimo Polidoro is an investigator of the paranormal, lecturer, and cofounder and head of CICAP, the Italian skeptics group. His website is at www.massimopolidoro.com.

The Conspiracy of the Fairies

his year, 2017, marks the hun- think not. However, all inquiry will be trick. Since he could not detect any dredth anniversary of one of the made. These I am not allowed to send. photographic fakery (such as double ex- Tmost famous hoaxes in history: the The fairies are about eight inches high. posures) in the fairy images, he declared Cottingley fairies photos, taken by two In one there is a single goblin dancing. them genuine and Doyle believed him. Yorkshire girls in 1917. Or were they? In the other four beautiful, luminous A new hypothesis, recently put forward creatures. Yes, it is a revelation” (Doyle Poor Sherlock Holmes! in the pages of Fortean Times magazine, 1921). Doyle’s good friend and Spiritualist suggests that the photos may actually The pictures he was referring to Sir Oliver Lodge, however, refused to have been taken later, after very simi- were taken by Elsie Wright and Fran- accept the photos as genuine. It seemed lar pictures, recently rediscovered, had ces Griffith, two girls living in Yorkshire to him that some Californian classical already been created by other pho- who enjoyed playing outdoors. One day dancers had been superimposed against tographers. But why would the dates in July 1917, so the story goes, they a rural British background. Doyle of the Cottingley photos be changed? asked Elsie’s father, Arthur, if they could replied dismissively that such tricks That’s the interesting part. Let’s first borrow his new Midg camera and with would have been quite impossible for take a step back and review the story. that they took some pictures of them- two “working-class Yorkshire girls.” selves with what appeared to be little He could not bear to entertain the The ‘Revelation’ of the Fairies fairies and goblins. When the pictures possibility of fraud on the part of two “I have something . . . precious” Sir found their way into Doyle’s hands, first young girls: the very idea offended his Arthur Conan Doyle, creator of he had them examined by experts and, notions of chivalry. He considered the Sherlock Holmes, wrote one day although Kodak representatives told photos an “epoch-making event”—and in 1920 to his (then) friend Harry him they could undoubtedly reproduce declared so to the world, first with ar- Houdini. “Two photos, one of a goblin, similar effects, he preferred to believe ticles in the Strand magazine and then the other of four fairies in a Yorkshire a photographer who asserted that he with a book, The Coming of the Fairies wood. A fake! you will say. No, sir, I would have been able easily to spot any (1922), which contained all five pho-

Left: Frances with fairies before her at a glen in Cottingley: Was it taken in 1917? (Massimo Polidoro Collection). Middle: A rarely seen photo of Elsie and Frances at the Cottingley glen, probably taken by Arthur Wright around 1920 (Massimo Polidoro Collection). Right: A photo from early 1918 by the mysterious Dorothy Inman (Brotheron Collection, Leeds University Library).

24 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer tographs taken by the girls. He saw books such as James Randi’s Flim- ruary 1918 in a popular magazine called himself as a pioneer: “The discovery of Flam! (Prometheus Books, 1982) or The Sphere. Columbus of a new terrestrial conti- Joe Cooper’s The Case of the Cottingley “Both images,” explains Maher, nent,” he wrote in the book, “is a lesser Fairies (Roberta Hale, 1990). “pre-date the Cottingley photographs, achievement than the demonstration of which weren’t seen by anyone outside a completely new order of life inhabit- of the immediate families until 1919. ing the same planet as ourselves” (Doyle We have only the word of the Wright 1921). Doyle could not bear to and Griffith families that the girls took The reaction of the public and of the entertain the possibility the first Cottingley photographs in the press was of amusement, if not down- summer of 1917. What if they didn’t?” right scorn: “Poor Sherlock Holmes,” of fraud on the part of To Maher, the insistence that the first ran one headline, “Hopelessly Crazy?” two young girls: the two pictures were taken in 1917 could and phrases like “easily duped” and “sad very idea offended his point to a different conclusion: the spectacle” began to appear in the papers. adults were part of the conspiracy. It would take more than sixty years notions of chivalry. for the hoax to be revealed. Only in A Forced Deception 1982, in fact, when all of the other The suggestion is that Arthur Wright people involved in the fairies saga had came across one or both of these ear- died, eighty-one-year old Elsie and However, Fiona Maher, in a recent lier pictures and decided he could do seventy-five-year old Frances felt ready article published by Fortean Times, won- better. The photos were taken by an to reveal the truth behind a “practical ders if there was more to the episode “experienced photographer,” according joke” that had confounded so many than what has been repeated for years. to Kodak’s original assessment: Could people. The fairies were cut-out draw- She found two very interesting pictures. Arthur have taken them? ings: “From where I was,” Frances said, “The first looks like a direct copy of the If that’s the case, Doyle’s involve- “I could see the hatpins holding up the most famous of the Cottingley pho- ment in the matter made it impossible figures. I’ve always marveled that any- for Mr. Wright to admit it was a prank. body ever took it seriously” (Wright tographs—the initial one showing the “If he was so embroiled” reasons Maher, 1983). fairies dancing before Frances” writes “it is likely he was either embarrassed Elsie explained that they had agreed Maher (2017). “Its execution, though, or ashamed of using the girls to front to keep silent because they were “feel- is poor in comparison to the Cottingley the photos and possibly fearful of being ing sad” for Doyle: “He had lost his son pictures, and the pale fairies seem out accused of fraud or even of obtaining recently in the war, and I think the poor of place against the dark background.” money by deception.” man was trying to comfort himself in Nothing much is known about the The fees to publish the photos were these things, so I said to Frances, we are photographer, except for the fact that in fact paid by those wishing to repro- a lot younger than Conan Doyle . . . so the photo was created in 1918 and is duce them and sell them as postcards, we will wait till they die of old age and held in the same collection as the Cot- as well as by The Strand magazine, then we will tell.” tingley fairies material at Leeds Univer- who paid ten pounds for their tempo- sity Library labeled “Mrs. Inman’s Fake rary use—a sum that could pay many Earlier Fairies Photos? Photograph.” months’ rent on a cottage in those The story is richer with facts and twists, The second image was taken in the days. Later on, Doyle was able to get and detailed analysis can be found in summer of 1917 and published in Feb- a dowry of £100 for the girls. Not bad for a prank. Maher admits that her own are mere conjectures, but the argument is compelling. No one can prove today who took the photos or when, but it appears certain that even a century later the little fairies of Cottingley may still have n some tricks up their wings. References Doyle, A.C. 1921. The Coming of the Fairies. London: Hodder & Stoughton. Maher, F. 2017. Deceiving Doyle: The Cottingley centenary. Fortean Times 356(August): 30–35. Wright, Elsie. 1983. Letter by Elsie Wright to The Sphere photo published in Februrary 1918 (Mary Evans Picture Library) James Randi; no date (circa January 1983).

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2017 25 [ BEHAVIOR & BELIEF STUART VYSE Stuart Vyse is a psychologist and author of Believing in Magic: The Psychology of Superstition, which won the William James Book Award of the American Psychological Association. He is a fellow of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry.

Moving Science’s Statistical Goalposts

n 1989, Ralph Rosnow and Robert of science and has ignited a vigorous promote hair growth in balding humans. Rosenthal, two well-respected experts controversy in the field. But I’m getting She creates a Compound X lotion and Ion statistical methods in psychology, ahead of myself. Let’s step back and a placebo lotion and conducts an exper- wrote the following memorable line: figure out what this is all about. iment on balding volunteers. Lo and “We want to underscore that, surely, behold, the people in her Compound X God loves the .06 nearly as much as The Reverse Logic of group grow more hair than those in the the .05” (Rosnow and Rosenthal 1989, Statistical Significance placebo group. If her experiment was 1277). otherwise well designed and conducted, For researchers in psychology—as The idea came from the British biol- can she safely conclude Compound X well as in the biological and social sci- ogist and statistician Ronald Fisher, a grows hair? Of course not. It might just ences—this was an amusing statement man Richard Dawkins has called “the have been a lucky test, and furthermore because .05 is the Holy Grail of statis- greatest biologist since Darwin” (The no number of positive tests can prove tical significance. It may seem unusual Edge 2011). Fisher invented many the rule. to use religious language when writing statistical techniques—including the Understanding this, Fisher proposed about scientific methods, but the met- analysis of variance (ANOVA)—and, to turn the question around, creating a aphor is fitting because, for almost as ever since, learning how to use Fisher’s straw person that could be knocked over long as scientists have used statistical methods has been the bane of graduate with statistics. What if we assume the methods, achieving a probability of .05 students in biology, psychology, and opposite, that Compound X has no ef- or less (e.g., .04, .027, .004) meant pub- many other disciplines. fect at all? This idea is what Fisher called lication, academic success, and another Fisher recognized that you cannot the “null hypothesis”: the hypothesis of step toward the financial security of ten- affirm the consequent. Scientists are nothing going on, no effect. Then, he ure. But .06 or even .055 meant nothing. commonly in the position of wanting to reasoned, we can determine the proba- No publication and no progress toward prove that a variable they are interested bility of our experimental findings hap- a comfortable retirement. in causes something to happen. For ex- pening merely by chance. This is where Rosnow and Rosenthal were arguing ample, imagine a chemist has identified ANOVA and other statistical methods that scientists had been overly concerned Compound X, which she believes will come in. Fisher suggested that statistical with a single, arbitrary cut-off score, p tests could be used to estimate the kinds < .05, but today their plea sounds a bit of outcomes that would be expected due antique. In the latest response to the to random variations in the data. If the “reproducibility crisis” in psychology result obtained in an experiment was (see my June 2015 online column, very unlikely to occur by chance, then the “Has Science a Problem?”) a group of researcher would be justified in rejecting seventy-two accomplished statisticians, the null hypothesis of no effect. It would biologists, and social scientists have be fairly safe to say something real was signed a statement proposing that the going on. For example, if our chemist’s criterion be changed from .05 to .005. statistical analysis found the probability This may seem like a nerdy technical A histogram of iris sepal widths showing a roughly of getting the amount of hair growth she issue, but the proposed change has bell-shaped distribution. Based on a dataset main- saw in the Compound X group to be profound implications for the progress tained by Ronald Fisher. (source: Wikimedia) .04—meaning that by chance alone we

26 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer could expect the same result in only 4 of 100 similarly run experiments—then it would be reasonable for her to conclude Compound X really worked. So was born the Null Hypothesis Significance Test (NHST), and before long it was the law of the land. Fisher proposed a probability (p-value) of .05, and it came to pass that researchers in a variety of fields could not expect to get their articles published unless they performed the appropriate statistical tests and found that p was < .05 (a probability of the null hypothesis being true in less than 5 percent of cases). Point zero The four possible outcomes of a null hypothesis significance test of Compound X’s ability to grow hair. five became the accepted knife edge of success: p < .055 meant your results were junk, and p < .048 meant you could pop to 5 out of 1,000 (p < .005). This would up nonsignificant: p > .05: a kind of false the champagne. P < .05 was not a magi- greatly help one of the issues the authors negative result. The change to .005 pro- cal number; it just became the accepted presume to be a cause of the reproduc- posed by the gang of seventy-two would convention—a convention that Rosnow ibility problem: Type I error. When we make false negatives more common, and and Rosenthal, as well as others (e.g., say something is statistically significant, given the often enormous time and cost Cohen 1990) have criticized to no avail. we are simply saying that it is unlikely involved in modern research, it would It remains a fossilized criterion for sep- the observed effect is due to chance. mean that important results that would arating the wheat from the chaff. But But it’s not impossible. By definition, contribute to our knowledge base would perhaps, not for long. the choice of the .05 significance level be likely to die on the vine. Ultimately means that we are willing to live with the progress of science would be slowed. a 5 percent chance of an error—saying Strengthening Scientific Evidence Perhaps anticipating this objection, there is an effect when actually our re- the seventy-two authors proposed that Statistics is one of those fields that has sults were caused by normal random results falling between the traditional been plagued by a number of dustups variation. This is a kind of false positive .05 and the new .005 might still be pub- over the years, but this latest controversy result. For example, if Compound X is lished as “suggestive” rather than sta- over p-values is inspired by the repro- useless, our choice of the .05 criterion tistically significant. Furthermore, the ducibility crisis, the discovery that many means that in five tests out of a hundred p < .005 criteria would only be applied classic experiments—primarily in social we would conclude something was hap- to tests of new phenomena, and repli- and cognitive psychology—could not be pening when nothing was. And when, as cations of previously published studies reproduced when attempted again. The is most often the case, we conduct just could remain at .05. But it is clear the resulting loss of confidence in research a single test, how do we know whether change would still have a powerful ef- findings has spawned a number of ours is one of the five random cases that fect. As someone on one of my Internet reforms, most notably the Open Science just happened to make Compound X discussion groups suggested, this change movement, about which I wrote in my look like it works? Based on a single test, might make many psychology journals December 2016 online column, “The we really can’t say. much thinner than they are now. I hav- Parable of the Power Pose and How to Moving the statistical criterion to en’t checked, but I am fairly certain sev- Reverse It” (Vyse 2016). The open sci- .005 would make the chances of a Type I eral of my own published studies would ence approach makes research a much error much lower, which means that the have to be demoted to the “suggestive” more public and collaborative enterprise findings that reach publication would be category. and makes the common practice of more trustworthy and more likely repro- “p-hacking”—fiddling with your data ducible. This is a worthy goal, and there The Response until something significant pops out— is no easier fix than simply requiring a much more difficult (see my previous SI stronger test. But such a change would The proposal by the seventy-two re column, “P-Hacker Confessions: Daryl not be without costs. When you reduce searchers is scheduled to appear in Bem and Me,” September/October the chances of a Type I error, you in- a future issue of the journal Nature 2017). crease the chances of a different kind of Human Behavior, but the prepublication Then, in July of 2017, seventy-two error with the clever name of Type II. copy posted online has already attracted scientists (Benjamin et al. 2017) wrote Type II errors are caused when the ef- much publicity and considerable com- the proposal to simply make the crite- fect you are studying is real, but your test ment from the scientific community. rion for significance more difficult by fails to show it. Compound X really can Many researchers have welcomed the moving the cut-off from 5 out of 100 grow hair, but by chance, your test came .005 suggestion, which has been offered

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2017 27 Will It Happen? by others in the past (Resnick 2017), the publishing industry will continue but there has also been some pushback. So how likely is it that the goalposts to be hungry for material. As a result, Psychologist Daniel Lakens is organiz- will get moved and journals will begin the prospect of much less content and ing a group rebuttal. According to an to require a p < .005 level of signifi- thinner journals will not be a welcome article on Vox, one of Laken’s primary cance? I suspect the probability is low. thought, and I suspect this attitude will objections is that such a technique Not five chances out of a thousand, but be communicated down the line to edi- will slow the progress of science. It less than 50/50. There are good reasons tors who must choose whether to adopt for making this correction, particularly the new standard or not. The publishing may strengthen the published research n literature at the cost of discouraging at this time when confidence in social gods love .05 much more than .005. graduate students and other investiga- science research is at a low point. But, References tors who have limited resources. for a couple of reasons, I don’t think it will happen. Bates, Timothy. 2017. Changing the default Typically, the most effective way to p-value threshold for statistical significance increase the power of a statistical test First, because this controversy is rel- ought not be done, and is the least of our atively new, the objectors are still devel- problems. Medium ( July 23). Available online and the likelihood of reaching a strin- at https://medium.com/@timothycbates/ gent significance level, such as p < .005, oping their responses. As the conversa- changing-the-default-p-value-threshold- is to increase the number of participants tion gets going, I suspect we will hear for-statistical-significance-ought-not-be- done-in-isolation-3a7ab357b5c1; accessed in your study. Although the Internet more concerns about Type II errors— real phenomena that will be missed be- August 13, 2017. provides new opportunities for collect- Benjamin, Daniel J., James Berger, Magnus ing large amounts of survey data, con- cause they fail to meet the p < .005 cri- Johannesson, et al. 2017. Redefine statistical significance. PsyArXiv ( July 22). Available sider the difficulties of developmental terion—and about discouraging young investigators from going into research. online at osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/mky9j. psychologists who study infant behavior Buranyi, Stephen. 2017. Is the staggeringly prof- No one is in favor of that. itable business of scientific publishing bad for in the laboratory. As important as this But I suspect one of the biggest science? The Guardian ( June 27). Available work is, it might end up being limited online at https://www.theguardian.com/ sources of resistance will be based in to a few well-funded centers. Psycholo- science/2017/jun/27/profitable-business-sci- economics rather than in arcane tech- entific-publishing-bad-for-science; accessed gist Timothy Bates, writing in Medium, nical and professional issues. It turns August 14, 2017. makes the more general argument that Cohen, Jacob. 1990. Things I have learned (so out that academic publishing is enor- a cost-benefit analysis of the switch to far). American Psychologist 45(12): 1304. mously profitable—a $19 billion busi- The Edge. 2011. Who is the greatest biologist .005 comes up short. Research will be- ness worldwide that, according to The of all time? Edge.org (March 11). Available come much more expensive without, in online at https://www.edge.org/conversa- Guardian, is far more profitable than ei- his view, yielding equal benefit (Bates tion/who-is-the-greatest-biologist-of-all- ther the film or music industries (Bura- time; accessed August 13, 2017. 2017). nyi 2017). A large portion of this success Ioannidis, John P.A. 2005. Why most pub- Finally, there is the question of plac- lished research findings are false. PLoS comes from a unique business model in Medicine 2(8): e124. doi:10.1371/journal. ing too much emphasis on one issue. which the product being sold—aca- pmed.0020124. John Ioannidis is a Stanford University demic scholarship—is obtained essen- Rathi, Akshat. 2017. Soon, nobody will read aca- statistician and health researcher whose demic journals illegally—the studies worth tially for free. Research that often costs reading will be free. Quartz (August 9). paper “Why Most Published Research millions of dollars in research grants and Available online at https://qz.com/1049870/ Findings Are False” (Ioannidis 2005) is salaries to produce is handed to pub- half-the-time-unpaywall-users-search-for- a classic document of the reproducibility articles-that-are-legally-free-to-access/; lishers such as Elsevier or Springer for accessed August 14, 2017. movement. He is also one of the sev- nothing. Even peer reviews of submit- Resnick, Brian. 2017. What a nerdy debate enty-two signers of the .005 proposal. about p-values shows about science—and ted manuscripts are done by researchers how to fix it. Vox ( July 31). Available online But Ioannidis admits that statistical who donate their time for free. at https://www.vox.com/science-and-hea significance is not the only way to judge Academic publishing is a kind of lth/2017/7/31/16021654/p-values-statis- a study: “statistical significance [alone] tical-significance-redefine-0005; accessed crazy, incestuous feedback loop. Re- August 13, 2017. doesn’t convey much about the mean- searchers must get their work published Rosnow, Ralph L., and Robert Rosenthal. 1989. ing, the importance, the clinical value, in high-quality journals if they wish to Statistical procedures and the justification of utility [of research]” (quoted in Resnick knowledge in psychological science. American advance their careers, and scholars and Psychologist 44(10): 1276. 2017). Even if Compound X produced university libraries must pay exorbitant Vyse, Stuart. 2015. Has science a problem? a significant increase in hair growth (p < subscription costs to gain access to the Csicop.org ( June 18). Available online at http://www.csicop.org/specialarticles/show/ .005), the hair growth in question might same journals. The current system is has_science_a_problem; accessed August 13, not be noticeable enough to make the being threatened by Sci-Hub, a pirated 2017. treatment worth using. Under the pro- archive of scientific publications, and by ———. 2016. The parable of the power pose and how to reverse it. Csicop.org (December posed more stringent statistical criteria, a growing number of scholars who are 15). Available online at http://www.csicop. researchers might concentrate on get- posting prepublication versions of their org/specialarticles/show/the_parable_of_ ting results that are likely to get them work online (Rathi 2017). Eventually, the_power_pose_and_how_to_reverse_it; accessed August 13, 2017. over the statistical goal line and pass up all scientific publishing may be en- ———. 2017. P-hacker confessions: Daryl Bem more meaningful topics. tirely free and open, but until that day, and me. Skeptical Inquirer 41(5): 25–27.

28 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer [ SCIENCE WATCH KENNETH W. KRAUSE Kenneth W. Krause is a contributing editor and “Science Watch” columnist for the Skeptical Inquirer and science journalist at http://thedotingskeptic.wordpress.com. He may be contacted at [email protected].

Editing the Human Germline: Groundbreaking Science and Mind-Numbing Sentiment

hould biologists use new gene-editing technology to modify or “correct” the had initiated only after the fertilized human germline? Will our methods soon prove sufficiently safe and efficient egg had begun to divide. Sand, if so, for what purposes? Much-celebrated CRISPR gene-editing pioneer By using nonviable triploid embryos Jennifer Doudna recently recalled her initial trepidations over that very prospect: containing three sets of chromosomes instead of the usual two, Huang avoided objections that he had destroyed po- Humans had never before had a tool enzyme, a synthetic repair DNA tem- tential human lives. Nevertheless, both like CRISPR, and it had the poten- plate, and a “glow-in-the-dark” jellyfish tial to turn not only living people’s Science and Nature rejected his manu- gene that allows investigators to track genomes but also all future genomes script based in part on ethical concerns. their results as cells continue to divide, into a collective palimpsest upon Several scientific agencies also promptly which any bit of genetic code could Huang’s team delivered a paltry 5 per- reemphasized their stances against be erased and overwritten depend- cent efficiency rate. Some embryos dis- ing on the whims of the generation played unintended “off-target” editing. human germline modification in via- doing the writing. . . . Somebody was ble embryos, and, in the United States, inevitably going to use CRISPR in the Obama administration announced a human embryo . . . and it might well change the course of our species’ its position that the human germline history in the long run, in ways that Within a single day of should not be altered at that time for were impossible to foretell. (Doudna Mitalipov’s report, eleven clinical purposes. Francis Collins, direc- and Sternberg 2017) scientific and medical tor of the National Institutes of Health, And it didn’t take long. Just one emphasized that the U.S. government month after Doudna and others called organizations published would not fund any experiments infor a moratorium on human germline a position statement volving the editing of human embryos. editing in the clinical setting, scien- outlining their recom- And finally, earlier this year, a commit- tists in Junjiu Huang’s lab at Sun Yat- tee of the U.S. National Academies of sen University in Guangzhou, China, mendations regarding Sciences and Medicine decreed that published a paper describing their the human germline. clinical use of germline editing would exclusively in vitro use of CRISPR be allowed only when prospective par- on eighty-six human embryos (Liang ents had no other opportunities to birth et al. 2015). Huang’s goal was to edit healthy children. mutated beta-globin genes that would Meanwhile, experimentation con- otherwise trigger a debilitating blood In others, cells ignored the repair tem- tinued in China, with similarly grim disorder called beta-thalassemia. plate and used the related delta-globin results. But this past August, an in- But the outcomes were mixed, at gene as a model instead. A third group ternational team based in the United best. After injecting each embryo with a of embryos turned mosaic, containing States—this time led by embryologist CRISPR complex composed of a guide cells with an untidy jumble of editions. Shoukhrat Mitalipov at the Oregon RNA molecule, a gene-slicing Cas-9 Part of the problem was that CRISPR Health and Science University in Port-

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2017 29 land—demonstrated that, under certain Mitalipov and colleagues employed a can be used to repair homozygous circumstances, genetic defects in human CRISPR complex generally similar to disease mutations where both alleles embryos can, in fact, be efficiently and that used by Huang. It included a guide are mutant. Nevertheless, Mitalipov’s safely repaired (Ma et al. 2017). RNA sequence, a Cas-9 endonuclease, method could be applied to more than Mitalipov’s group attempted to and a synthetic repair template. In one 10,000 diseases, including breast and correct an autosomal dominant muta- phase of their investigation, the team ovarian cancers linked to BRCA gene tion—where a single copy of a mutated fertilized fifty-four human oocytes mutations, Huntington’s, cystic fibrosis, gene results in disease symptoms—of (from twelve healthy donors) with un- Tay-Sachs, and even some cases of the MYBPC3 gene. Crucially, such mu- healthy sperm carrying the MYBPC3 early-onset Alzheimer’s. tations are responsible for an estimated mutation (from a single donor) and At least in theory. As of this writing, 40 percent of all genetic defects causing injected the resulting embryos eighteen Mitalipov’s results have yet to be repli- hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), hours later with the CRISPR complex. cated, and even he warns that, despite along with many other inherited car- The result? Thirteen treated embryos the new safety assurances and the re- diomyopathies. Afflicting one in every became jumbled mosaics. markable targeting efficiencies furnished Mitalipov changed things up con- by his most recent work, gene-editing siderably, however, in the study’s sec- techniques must be “further optimized ond phase by delivering the complex before clinical application of germline The author then laments much earlier than he and others had correction can be considered” (Ma et al. done in previous experiments—indeed, 2017). According to stem-cell biologist the fact that, due to at the very brink of fertilization. More George Daley of Boston Children’s Hos- modern reproductive precisely, his colleagues injected the pital, Mitalipov’s experiments have proven technology, fewer CRISPR components along with the that CRISPR is “likely to be operative,” mutated sperm cells into fifty-eight but “still very premature” (Ledford 2017). children are being born healthy, “wild-type” oocytes during And while Doudna characterized the re- with Down’s syndrome. metaphase of the second meiotic di- sults as “one giant leap for (hu)mankind,” vision. Here, the results were impres- she also expressed discomfort with the sive, to say the least. Forty-two treated new research’s unmistakable inclination embryos were normalized, carrying toward clinical applications (Belluck two copies of the healthy MYBPC3 al- 2017). 500 adults, HCM cannot be cured and lele—a 72 percent rate of efficiency; no Indeed, within a single day of Mitali- remains the most common cause of “off-target effects” were detected, and pov’s report, eleven scientific and medical heart failure and sudden death among only one embryo turned mosaic. organizations, including the American otherwise healthy young athletes. These Mitalipov’s team achieved a genuine Society of Human Genetics, published mutations have escaped the pressures of breakthrough in terms of both efficacy a position statement outlining their rec- natural selection, unfortunately, due to and safety. Perhaps nearly as interest- ommendations regarding the human the disorder’s typically late onset—fol- ing—and, in fact, the study’s primary germline (Ormond et al. 2017). The au- finding, according to the authors—is thors appeared to encourage not only in lowing reproductive maturity. that, in both experimental phases, the vitro research but public funding as well. Prospective parents can, however, embryos consistently ignored Mitali- Although they advised against any con- prevent HCM in their children during pov’s synthetic repair template and temporary gene-editing process intended the in vitro fertilization/preimplan- turned instead to the healthy mater- to culminate in human pregnancy, they tation genetic diagnosis (IVF/PGD) nal allele as their model. Such is not suggested that clinical applications might process. Where only one parent carries the case when CRISPR is used to edit proceed in the future subject to a com- a heterozygous mutation, 50 percent of somatic (body) cells, for example. Ap- pelling medical rationale, a sufficient ev- the resulting embryos can be diagnosed parently, the team surmised, human idence base, an ethical justification, and a as healthy contenders for implantation. embryos evolved an alternative, germ- transparent and public process to solicit The remaining unhealthy 50 percent line-specific DNA repair mechanism, input. will be discarded. As such, correction perhaps to afford the germline special And of course researchers such as Mi- of mutated MYBPC3 alleles would not protection. talipov will be forced to deal with those only rescue the latter group of embryos The clinical implications of this who claim that, regardless of purpose, the but improve pregnancy rates and save repair preference are profound and, at creation and destruction of human em- prospective mothers—especially older least arguably, very unfortunate. First, bryos is always ethically akin to murder women with high aneuploidy rates and with present methods, it now appears (Mitalipov destroyed his embryos within fewer viable eggs—from risks associ- unlikely that scientists could engineer days of their creation). But others have ated with increasing numbers of IVF/ so-called “designer babies” endowed lately expressed even less forward-think- PGD cycles as well. with trait enhancements. Second, it ing and, frankly, even more irrational and With these critical facts in mind, seems nearly as doubtful that CRISPR dangerous sentiments.

30 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer For example, a thoroughly galling appends counsel from a man with Hun- I think not. Disabilities, by definition, article I can describe further only as tington’s, for instance, who suggests that are bad. And, as even a minimally compas- “pro-disability” (in stark contrast to “anyone who has to actually face the sionate people, if we possess any safe and “pro-disabled”) was lately published, reality . . . is not going to have a remote efficient technological means of prevent- surprisingly to me, in one of the world’s compunction about thinking there is ing blindness, deafness, or any other debil- most prestigious science publications any moral issue at all.” But the narrative itating disease in any child or that child’s (Hayden 2017). It begins by describing quickly circles back to a linguist, for exam- progeny, we also necessarily have an urgent n a basketball game in which a nine-year- ple, who describes deaf parents who deny ethical obligation to use them. their disabilities and have even selected for old girl, legally blind due to genetic References albinism, scored not only the winning deafness in their children through IVF/ basket, but, evidently—through sheer PGD, and a literary scholar who believes Belluck, P. 2017. In breakthrough, scientists edit a dangerous mutation from genes in determination—all of her team’s points. that disabilities have brought people closer human embryos. New York Times (August 2). Odd, perhaps, but great! So far. together to create a more inclusive world Available online at https://nyti.ms/2hnZ9ey; But the story quickly turns sour, (much as some claim Western terrorism accessed August 9, 2017. Doudna, J.A., and S.H. Sternberg. 2017. A to the girl’s father who apparently has). The author then laments the fact Crack in Creation: Gene Editing and the had asked the child, first, whether she that, due to modern reproductive tech- Unthinkable Power to Control Evolution. wished she would have been born with nology, fewer children are being born with Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. Hayden, E.C. 2017. Tomorrow’s children. Nature normal sight, and, second (excruciat- Down’s syndrome. 530: 402–05 ingly), whether she would ever help To summarize, according to one dis- Ledford, H. 2017. CRISPR fixes embryo error. her own children achieve normal sight abilities historian, “There are some good Science 548:13–14. Liang, P., Y. Xu, X. Zhang, et al. 2015. CRISPR/ through genetic correction. Unsurpris- things that come from having a genetic Cas9-mediated gene editing in human ingly, the nine-year-old is said to have illness” (Hayden 2017). Uh-huh. In tripronuclear zygotes. Protein and Cell 6(5): echoed what we then learn to be her other words, disabilities are actually ben- 363–72. Ma, H., N. Marti-Gutierrez, S. Park, et al. 2017. father’s heartfelt but bizarre sentiment: eficial because they provide people with Correction of a pathogenic gene mutation “Changing her disability . . . would have challenges to overcome—as if relatively in human embryos. Nature DOI:10.1038/ made us and her different in a way we healthy people are incapable of voluntarily nature23305. would have regretted,” which to him, and mindfully designing both mental and Ormond, K.E., D.P. Mortlock, D.T. Scholes, et al. 2017. Human germline genome editing. would be “scary.” physical challenges for themselves and The American Journal of Human Genetics 101: To be fair, the article then very briefly their kids. 167–176.

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Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2017 31 [ SKEPTICAL INQUIREE BENJAMIN RADFORD Benjamin Radford is a research fellow at the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry and author or coauthor of ten books, including Bad Clowns.

Legitimizing Woo

I was sent a link to your article about the Sandy Hook conspiracies (https://tinyurl.com/y747c2gf), and my question is: Why even give these people the time of day? I unfortunately watched the [pro-con- : spiracy] YouTube video before realizing what I had done: contributed to helping the creator make money off of YouTube. Why help drive Q traffic to these people’s business ventures? —Jason R.

You bring up a good evidence. Better research follows better a thorough analysis would “take years of question, one that I and evidence, and as one prominent scien- my time; and, if I were mad enough to : other skeptics and media tist and Bigfoot researcher, British pri- write it, who would read it?” This co- literacy educators strug- matologist John Napier, noted, “There nundrum is emblematic of the skeptic’s A gle with. The answer is are no shortage of problems to tackle, dilemma. that it’s a no-win sit- and it is not surprising that scien- This tension also emerges in the dis- uation: If you ignore tists prefer to investigate the probable cussion about whether scientists should the claims (of UFOs, Bigfoot, ghosts, rather than beat their heads against debate pseudoscientists, for example when conspiracies, etc.) then believers say the wall of the faintly possible.” Because Bill Nye debated creationist Ken Ham on to themselves and others: “See? There scientists (with rare, notable exceptions February 4, 2014 (Ham briefly referenced must be something to it. . . . No one is such as Neil deGrasse Tyson or Bill me during the debate, much to my amuse- refuting the claims or answering these Nye) generally don’t spend their time ment). By putting a scientist and a non- questions. The skeptics can’t answer our addressing seemingly supernatural or scientist on the same stage together, there arguments!” People will often assume paranormal claims, that job often falls is a real danger of legitimizing creation- that if they are not hearing a solid, to skeptics. In fact, it’s one of the most ism and giving the appearance that “both categorical rebuttal that it’s not because important roles of organized skepticism. sides” are equally valid. Anyone is free to scientists and skeptics think it’s too silly Science-fiction author and skeptic hold whatever beliefs or opinions they like, to bother with but instead that they L. Sprague de Camp once wrote that no matter how unscientific or false. But can’t or won’t address the claims. Erich von Daniken’s books are “solid there is no obligation by the news media But the reason that psychic powers, masses of misstatements, errors, and to portray both sides as having equally Bigfoot, ghosts, and other phenomena wild guesses presented as facts, unsup- strong or valid scientific arguments, when are not accepted by the scientific com- ported by anything remotely resem- by any measure they do not. munity is simply because there is little bling scientific data.” Though desiring The concern about indirectly or no good evidence for them—not to refute von Daniken’s Chariots of the promoting the very information skeptics because scientists haven’t looked at the Gods arguments, de Camp realized that are trying to combat has long been

32 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer recognized; one method devised to The larger question of how to cri- leave it to the reader to decide. address the problem was DoNotLink, tique content without supporting it is In my articles, I provide references an online tool used among skeptics. Tim difficult. Any commentary, no matter (and links when appropriate) to original Farley wrote about this on his Skeptical how harsh or skeptical, may inadver- sources so that readers can more easily Software Tools blog (see https://tinyurl. tently help promote it, for the same evaluate for themselves what informa- com/ydynubhw). However, DoNotLink’s reason that a scathing review of a film tion I used and whether I fairly charac- effectiveness was disputed and by 2016 the may encourage some people to see the terized the content. Readers, of course, service was defunct; other online tools are movie, either because they would not are under no obligation to buy (or bor- emerging. have heard about the film otherwise or row) the books I reference or watch the Ideally, the best way to treat these just to see if the critique is accurate. But videos I link to. This also highlights an people would be to ignore them, but in inherent imbalance in skepticism: in practice that’s counterproductive. In the order to fairly and accurately analyze case of the Sandy Hook conspiracy, my research allowed people to link to an believers’ arguments on a given topic, informed critical analysis. Mine wasn’t skeptics must necessarily read and en- the only of its type, of course—there Ideally, the best way gage with their materials. Believers, on were other rebuttals available online on the other hand, only rarely even consult smaller blogs and videos—but mine was to treat these people skeptical commentary much less take among the highest profile. I did my best would be to ignore the effort to substantively refute it. to address the topic while minimizing For skeptics who research unseemly any promotion of the claims. them, but in practice topics and must consult books and vid- This problem is compounded when that’s counter- eos in order to evaluate the material journalists misleadingly cite the number they’re critiquing, I have three sugges- of views, hits, or shares on social media productive. tions: see if your local library can get as evidence of given content’s support. them; contact friends and local skeptics But just because a conspiracy or crank groups to see if anyone has and will loan pseudoscience video has five million you the materials; and peruse used book views, for example, does not necessarily and secondhand stores (and Amazon. imply that five million people watched com) to find used materials whose sale the video or agreed with anything in the goal of a review or skeptical analy- will not directly result in royalties for it. It just means that according to on- sis—whether of a film or a conspiracy the author. The same problem bedevils line metrics—whose accuracy has been theory—is not necessarily to prevent social media, of course, in which people called into question by advertisers and people from seeing the film or viewing others—a button was (or may have information about the conspiracy, but “like” and share all sorts of dubious in- been) clicked five million times. Peo- instead to give context and analysis to formation, inadvertently promoting it. ple routinely “like” and share memes help people evaluate it. In my career in The best thing to do is simply be more and information on social media that investigative skepticism, I rarely if ever diligent about what you share on social they haven’t read, or at least not past the tell people what to believe. Instead, I media, and when in doubt about the headline. Since so little online content is offer the results of my analysis (sup- veracity of the information, just ignore actually read, mere page views cannot be ported by arguments and evidence) to it. As always, the best advice is to be n considered genuine endorsement. explain the mystery or situation and skeptical.

For in-depth interviews with the most fascinating minds in science, religion, and politics, join Point of Inquiry at pointofinquiry.org. JOSH ZEPPS LINDSAY BEYERSTEIN Skeptical Inquirer November/December 2017 33 JEFFREY S. DEBIES-CARL

It is tempting to dismiss events such as last year’s “Pizzagate” shooting as the work of disturbed or unintelligent people, but social research provides an opportunity to explain this and other seemingly absurd episodes and perhaps help avert future tragedies.

and messages revealing that Comet Ping Pong was actually a front for an occult, child sex slave ring involving the owner of the restaurant, James Alefantis, Podesta, and Clinton herself. For several days before the presidential election, claims IT HAPPENED of this sort proliferated across the Internet. Alefantis and his employees began receiving menacing messages via so- less than a year ago. On December 4, 2016, customers cial media, including overt death threats (Kang 2016). The were sitting down for a Sunday afternoon meal in the events seemed to reach a climax with Welch’s misadventure. Washington, D.C., pizzeria Comet Ping Pong. Known He subsequently told police that his intention was to in- locally for its quirky atmosphere, live music, and of course vestigate these claims in person and, if he found them to be its ping pong, on this day the restaurant would make true, rescue the children held captive there. national headlines. Shortly before 3 pm, a man walked in This story is admittedly bizarre in many ways, and learn- 1 bearing an assault rifle. The man took aim in the direc- ing more about the shooter’s motivations does not seem to tion of one employee, who quickly fled, before discharging shed much light on it. Likewise, while others have doc- his firearm. Law enforcement promptly responded to umented the origins and spread of the groundless Pizza- calls, and officers were able to take the man into custody gate conspiracy theory (e.g., Kang 2016), neither does this without further incident. They found two firearms on the mapping necessarily help us understand how something so suspect and another in his vehicle. Fortunately no one was ludicrous found traction in a surprisingly wide audience, hurt, but the event has left many people shaken and not nor why it would motivate anyone to investigate in person. only for the obvious reasons. The accused had apparently These events—preposterous as they are—can be understood not intended to commit a mass shooting, nor had he by applying well-established lessons from social research. intended to rob the restaurant. The truth, such as it is, First, there is the peculiar nature of the conspiracy the- turned out to be quite strange nonetheless. ory itself. Unlike many of the stories one might encounter The accused shooter was twenty-eight-year-old Edgar in everyday life, stories of this sort can be understood as Maddison Welch, a father of two daughters and resident legends. According to folklorists, a legend is a type of story of Salisbury, North Carolina. After his arrest, he told police about supposed past events told as though it might be real: that he had made the 350-mile drive up to the capital to a “legend is a legend once it entertains debate about belief ” investigate claims regarding a conspiracy theory, circulating (Dégh 2001, 97). Unlike a fable or literature, the events de- online, that quickly came to be called “Pizzagate” (Metro- scribed are presented as possible, even if they are bizarre and politan Police Department 2016). According to this out- not necessarily plausible. For example, one legend theme landish set of claims, leaked emails from Hillary Clinton’s that used to be told frequently involves encounters with an campaign manager, John Podesta, contained coded signs exotic and dangerous animal in a typically safe and familiar

34 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer place. People telling the legend usually claim that a friend- Pizzagate theorizing and, as is the case with conspiracy the- of-a-friend, or some other indirect acquaintance, had gone ories, further information and discourse is likely to be found shopping for a carpet at a local department store (Brunvand online and from sources as dubious as the original story. 1981). He or she put their hand inside a rolled-up rug and However, the abundance of sympathetic websites and the felt a sudden, sharp pain. They had been bitten by a snake sheer number of credulous user posts dealing with the topic hiding in the carpet, an exotic species that had apparently may appear to be, themselves, evidence that a credible claim been imported, by accident, along with the carpet from some far off, foreign land. Two characteristics of the story indicate its status as Given the ambiguous a legend with little or no factual basis. First, no firsthand witnesses can ever be found by researchers. Second, multiple versions of it can be found with varying details. This is nature of such stories, because legends constantly change to suit the narrator and the locale in which they are told—the type of shop, the an- people rarely find it easy to imal, the protagonist—and they can circulate over the years, becoming associated with different people and places (e.g., determine their credibility. Radford 2016). Both characteristics apply to the claims about Comet Ping Pong. No witnesses, victims, or perpe- trators have come forward, and similar stories have been told about other places at other times. Similar allegations has been made. As social psychological research has illus- and threats occurred in 2015 in regard to a day care center trated, “we determine what is correct by finding out what in Salt Lake City (Peterson 2016), for example. Going fur- other people think is correct” (Cialdini 2009, 99). ther back into history, unfounded panic over alleged occult Participation in legends is not necessarily limited to dis- sexual abuse of children ran rampant during the 1980s and cussion alone. Sometimes the action they provoke manifests 1990s, and many places and people became the target of in a form called “legend-tripping” (Hall 1973). Inspired by groundless accusations (Victor 1993). It appears that the a legend, a person may travel to the alleged site of the story pizzeria was just the latest target of a perennial fear. to investigate its validity directly. In doing so, participants Given the ambiguous nature of such stories, people enter into the legend itself, acting out a part of it as one of rarely find it easy to determine their credibility. Rather, they its characters, and thereby “telling” its narrative through the must invest a degree of thought and emotional engagement process of ostension—through their behaviors rather than into the narrative while they appraise its merits. One legend, through words (Dégh and Vázsonyi 1983). This usually for example, suggests that Martha Washington accidentally takes on a fairly innocuous form, such as when adolescents invented ice cream when she “left a bowl of cream outside visit a reputedly haunted graveyard and reenact certain be- one cold night for a neighborhood kitty and found it fro- haviors that legend claims will invoke the spirit, such as call- zen solid in the morning” (Ellis 2009, 59). Is this legend ing its name at midnight. However, this sort of legend-trip- true? No, but it sounds like it could be, and the central claim ping is precisely what the shooter did as well, albeit much is compelling. Consequently, if listeners are engaged with less innocently. Welch saw himself as the potential hero of the story, they will frequently seek out further information the story—a rescuer of children. Instead, he put customers and participate in intense discussions with others over the at risk, since the only danger present was the danger that he legend and its claims. This was certainly the case with the brought with him. As one news headline correctly pointed

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2017 35 out, “Fake News Brought Real Guns” (Kang and Gold- suggested that it was a smoke screen used by the media man 2016). Similarly, legends are not simply stories about to cover up the “real” revelations found within the Podesta events that supposedly occurred in the past. They also serve Wikileaks ( Jones 2016). By planting and subsequently de- as “maps for action” (Ellis 2003, 325). As such, they can tell bunking an absurd story, Jones claimed, the media makes all more about the future than the past. Perhaps it should have of the “real” and damning content of the emails seem false been expected that the Internet threats against the pizzeria by association. This allows him and his devotees to step would eventually escalate into something much more seri- away from a debunked claim and simultaneously not have ous once sufficient and sustained interest was aroused. The to admit they were wrong. All this, despite the fact that the peak in Internet chatter before the election, in hindsight, allegedly “real” information in the email is no less absurd was a likely warning. and no more substantiated than the sex ring claim (e.g., Given the level of absurdity involved in this episode and high level involvement in secret cults, black magic rituals, the lack of anything approaching evidence to corroborate and so forth). Jones also conveniently overlooked the fact the claims made (LaCapria 2016), it might be reasonably that he himself was one of the primary disseminators of the expected that most people would soon realize there was claims against Comet Ping Pong in the first place. Accord- never any truth to the story and move on after its exposure ing to his own logic, this must mean that he is actually part in the media. This, however, is not the nature of the legend of the conspiracy he claims to oppose. process, nor was it what happened in this case. Conspiracy At first blush, the Pizzagate drama seemed so bizarre theories in particular are notoriously resilient to criticism that it was beyond the bounds of comprehension. It is easy (Goertzel 2011). Many people remained convinced of to discount those involved as mentally ill, unintelligent, or Pizzagate and—as is typical with conspiracy theories— perhaps bright but manipulative hucksters. While tempting, public disconfirmation only served to convince diehards of doing so would misdiagnose conspiracy theorists, most of a cover-up in the works. To believers, it seems the media whom are mentally healthy individuals (Bost 2015). More- doth protest too much. over, this would result in a missed opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of the situation and others like it. After all, this story is far from unique in its outlandish claims. Whatever the truth may be about the person or per- Legends are generally false sons who initiated the legend, the fact that they took root at all in a wider audience reveals something about them that in a literal sense, but they may help us understand those who entertained the possibility of a Clinton-linked sex slave ring. Legends are generally also reveal deeper truths false in a literal sense, but they also reveal deeper truths about those who tell them, reflecting their “hopes, fears, and anxieties” (Brunvand 1981, 2). Legends about finding about those who tell them. a mouse’s tail in a soda bottle may not be literally true, but they reveal real concerns about health and safety in industry. People who rank highly in conspiracy ideation also report As frustrating as this stance may be to those wishing to high levels of support for democratic values and strongly falsify absurd theories, such a mindset is far from abnormal. negative attitudes toward authority (Swami et al. 2011). Psychological research illustrates how it is difficult for most Pizzagate, as a conspiracy legend, reflected these concerns: people to admit they were wrong when they have commit- fears over the trustworthiness of big government, big media, ted strongly to a belief or course of action. Leon Festinger and elites that represent excessive authority and seem to and colleagues (1956) famously documented how members threaten democratic values. of a UFO cult doubled down on their belief system after There is a less savory side of the concerns involved as their predicted apocalypse failed to show up on December well. A Slate article correctly suggested that the very char- 21, 1954. The group was saved the trouble (and the cogni- acteristics of Comet Ping Pong that make local leftists love tive dissonance) of having to admit they were wrong when it are what made it a focus for the fears and concerns of their prophet conveniently received a last-minute revela- the far Right. The place is a haven for artists, punks, gays, tion from God via automatic writing. It turned out that and other marginal groups: a tangible emblem of inclusivity, the Almighty decided to postpone Armageddon thanks to tolerance, and other progressive values that are threatening the cult’s faith and devotion. Alex Jones, the extreme right- to the conspiracy-prone alt-Right (Cauterucci and Fischer wing radio show host and conspiracy theorist well-known 2016). Tellingly, the physical signs of these competing values for promoting claims that the September 11 attacks were are read differently by those who do not share them. For hoaxed, inadvertently offered an example of this sort of re- example, in a “mural of people and faces by an artist who’s visionist postscript shortly after the media storm that fol- played the Comet stage, conspiracy theorists see a depic- lowed Edgar Welch’s misguided adventure into the pizzeria. tion of a child being strangled. In run-of-the-mill bathroom In a video posted to the infowars.com website, Jones con- graffiti, they see secret sexual messages. In the lack of label- ceded that the story about a sex ring in the basement was ing for the gender-neutral bathrooms, haters with a political “absurd” without going so far as to disavow it, then promptly agenda see ‘secret rooms’” (Cauterucci and Fischer 2016).

36 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer In a previous era, ice cream parlors evoked a similar fear Available online at http://www.slate.com/blogs/outward/2016/12/06/ in some Anglo-Americans (Ellis 2009). Distrustful of the comet_ping_pong_is_a_haven_for_weirdos_and_now_a_target. html. foreign, Italian immigrants who frequently owned the par- Cialdini, Robert B. 2009. Influence: Science and Practice. New York: lors, legend had it that young women risked a morally and Pearson. physically dangerous slippery slope into drugs and forced Dégh, Linda. 2001. Legend and Belief: Dialectics of a Folklore Genre. Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press. prostitution if they visited them. The parallels are striking Dégh, Linda, and Andrew Vázsonyi. 1983. Does the word “dog” Bite? and troubling. A legend such as Pizzagate can only spread if Ostensive action: A means of legend-telling. Journal of Folklore the regressive values it reflects—nativism, racism, and xeno- Research 20(1): 5–34. phobia—are alive and well and resonate with a sympathetic Ellis, Bill. 2003. Aliens, Ghosts, and Cults: Legends We Live. Jackson, Mississippi: University Press of Mississippi. audience. Strangely, it also indicates that these values may ———. 2009. Whispers in an ice cream parlor: Culinary tourism, con- paradoxically be expressed by the same people who support temporary legends, and the urban interzone. Journal of American democracy and anti-authoritarianism, odd bedfellows that Folklore 122(483): 53–74. Festinger, Leon, Henry Riecken, and Stanley Schachter. 1956. When may find common cause in populism (Panizza 2005). Prophecy Fails: A Social and Psychological Study of a Modern Group that Legends, just like fake news, can lead to real-world con- Predicted the Destruction of the World. New York: Harper and Row. sequences. In addition, these outcomes can themselves rein- Goertzel, Ted. 2011. The conspiracy meme. Skeptical Inquirer 35(1) vigorate the original legend and encourage its further trans- ( January/February): 28–37. Available online at http://www.csicop. org/si/show/the_conspiracy_meme. mission. Discussion of the Pizzagate claims led to action: Hall, Gary. 1973. The big tunnel: Legends and legend-telling. Indiana online threats and an active shooter. These in turn sparked Folklore 6(2): 139–73. further debate on social media and in the mainstream media. Jones, Alex. 2016. Pizzagate is a diversion from the greater crimes in Whether intentionally or not, this continued discussion may Podesta Wikileaks: Why not cover the hundreds of other dastardly deeds in the emails? Infowars (December 5). Available online at encourage further exploits. Hopefully lessons can be learned http://www.infowars.com/pizzagate-is-a-diversion-from-the-great- from all this. While reputations have been damaged, for- er-crimes-in-podesta-wikileaks/. tunately no one was physically harmed this time. But ru- Kang, Cecilia. 2016. Fake news onslaught targets pizzeria as nest of child-trafficking. New York Times (November 21). Available online at mors continued to circulate over online blogs and videos, http://nyti.ms/2f0L9G9. threatening comments continued to be posted to the Comet Kang, Cecelia, and Adam Goldman. 2016. In Washington pizzeria Ping Pong Facebook page, and the possibility for further attack, fake news brought real guns. New York Times (December 5). disturbances inspired by dubious legends remains strong. Available online at http://nyti.ms/2h8nPmp. LaCapria, Kim. 2016. Chuck E. Sleaze. Snopes (December 4). Available Within days of the shooting, a fifty-seven-year-old woman online at http://www.snopes.com/pizzagate-conspiracy. named Lucy Richards was arrested for texting death threats Metropolitan Police Department. 2016. Arrest made in assault with a danger- to another woman who had lost a child in the Sandy Hook ous weapon (gun): 5000 block of connecticut avenue, northwest. December School shootings of 2012. According to the Department of 5. Available online at mpdc.dc.gov/release/arrest-made-assault- dangerous-weapon-gun-5000-block-connecticut-avenue-northwest. Justice, Richards was convinced by conspiracy claims that Panizza, Francisco (ed.). 2005. Populism and the Mirror of Democracy. New the shootings were a hoax and, presumably, that the un- York: Verso. named victim was somehow in on it (Boxley 2016). With Peterson, Eric. 2016. This Salt Lake City day care has become a magnet for conspiracy theories. Vice (February 23). Available online at an understanding of the social processes at work in these http://www.vice.com/read/the-online-conspiracy-theories-about-a- matters, it can be hoped that we will be better-prepared for salt-lake-city-daycare. n the next outbreak of conspiracy-inspired legend-tripping. Radford, Benjamin. 2016. Mistaken memories of vampires: Pseudohistories of the chupacabra. Skeptical Inquirer 40(1) Note ( January/February): 50–54. Siddiqui, Faiz, and Susan Svrluga. 2016. N.C. man told police he 1. The following summary of the event is drawn from a cross- went to D.C. pizzeria with gun to investigate conspiracy the- comparison of several media reports (including Bohn et al. 2016; Kang ory. Washington Post (December 5). Available online at https:// 2016; Kang and Goldman 2016; and Siddiqui and Svrluga 2016) as www.washingtonpost.com/news/local/wp/2016/12/04/d-c-police- well as a report from the Washington, D.C. police (Metropolitan Police respond-to-report-of-a-man-with-a-gun-at-comet-ping-pong- Department 2016). restaurant/?utm_term=.a04d60bd78da. Swami, Viren, Rebecca Coles, Stefan Steiger, et al. 2011. Conspiracy References ideation in Britain and Austria: Evidence of monological belief Bohn, Kevin, Daniel Allman, and Greg Clary. 2016. Gun-brandishing system and associations between individual psychological differences man sought to investigate fake news story site, police say. CNN and real-world and fictitious conspiracy theories. British Journal of (December 5). Available online at http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/04/ Psychology 102(3): 443–63. politics/gunincidentfakenews/index.html. Victor, Jeffrey S. 1993. Satanic Panic: The Creation of a Contemporary Bost, Preston R. 2015. Crazy beliefs, sane believers: Toward a cognitive Legend. Chicago: Open Court. psychology of conspiracy ideation. Skeptical Inquirer 39(1). Available online at www.csicop.org/si/show/crazy_beliefs_sane_ Jeffrey S. Debies-Carl, PhD, is associate believers_toward_a_cognitive_psychology_of_conspiracy_id. professor of sociology at the University Boxley, Mark. 2016. Florida woman calls sandy hook massacre a “hoax,” threatens to kill parent of victim, officials say. WFV 9 ABC (December 7). of New Haven. His research examines the Available online at http://www.wftv.com/news/local/florida-woman- social significance of physical spaces and calls-sandy-hook-massacre-a-hoax-threatens-to-kill-parent-of-vic- space-based behaviors and has appeared in tim-officials-say/473918395. Brunvand, Jan Harold. 1981. The Vanishing Hitchhiker: American Urban various scholarly journals. He is the author Legends and Their Meanings. New York: Norton. of Punk Rock and the Politics of Place (Rout- Cauterucci, Christina, and Jonathan L. Fischer. 2016. Comet is D.C.’s weirdo pizza place. Maybe that’s why it’s a target. Slate (December 6). ledge, 2014). He is not a part of the conspiracy—or so he claims.

Skeptical Inquirer November/December 2017 37 ERIC WOJCIECHOWSKI

To increase excitement into what is perceived as a normal, uneventful life, some people create their own personal myths of adventure and accomplishment. These are not just exaggerations of real events, and such narratives can be in the realm of the fantastic.

38 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer “There is no shortage of stories Philip J. Klass has already taken appearances, he claimed that while from impressive people attesting to Corso to task on the book, noting at NATO he was an intelligence an- the reality of UFO technology or ex- several glaring errors such as Corso’s alyst and that one evening when he traterrestrial bodies held in secret at claim that the U2 flights over Russia was tired and could not stay awake, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, or were, in part, to see if they could fire a senior officer tossed him a thick near Area 51 or elsewhere” (Dolan on us by provoking them and to see if manual and said this would keep him 2014, 152). Russia had obtained UFO technology. awake. Said manual supposedly docu- It started with a simple question: But most important, he challenged mented a three-year study by NATO Why would otherwise successful, pro- Corso on his claim that the Roswell on UFOs and extraterrestrials. He said fessional people with long, prosperous wreckage sat unattended for four- it was called “an assessment,” which careers tell wild tales? Why would teen years until he was allegedly put concluded that there were several someone of good reputation, educa- in charge by General Trudeau. Klass races of extraterrestrials flying around tion, and a gainful career embellish notes: and landing and making face-to-face their record with incredible adven- contact with people. The aliens were, [Choosing] Corso for this task is tures? Why would, say, a retired lieu- surprising because Corso did not however, not a threat (Nintzel and tenant colonel with numerous high- have even a bachelor’s degree in Acuna 1995). level accomplishments in his career, science or engineering. (He had awarded numerous medals and praises majored in Industrial Arts at a from superior officers, why would he teachers college prior to being Corso claimed that when drafted in 1942.) One would expect upon retirement, start telling people Trudeau, or one of his predeces- he worked with the Foreign he was part of a team that analyzed sors, to have thought of turning the wreckage of a crashed UFO? the Roswell debris over to some of Technology Division, not only And why go through the elaboration the many very competent scientists did he divvy up Russian and with painted-in details, citing docu- with Top Secret clearances then employed in Army research and German tech to private comments and naming others who were development laboratories. (Klass involved? Why would he do this if it 1998) panies for back engineering, were not true? but he also sent out parts of It seems to me that as someone Is Corso a guy who sought secret gains credibility, status, and a repu- clearances, secret projects, and late- the UFO Roswell crash as well. tation, he or she would become less night phone calls like Neo received inclined to puff themselves up with from Morpheus in the movie The fantastic tales. Why risk losing it all Matrix, only to have never received by going off the reservation and tell- them? Did he put in his time only Of course, Dean never produced ing incredible narratives? Why would to come to believe he was never this report for inspection. Philip Klass someone do that? quite rewarded as he felt justified? found no such study had ever been un- Philip J. Corso, in my opinion, is In other words, did he embellish his dertaken by NATO and that Dean’s someone who had an impressive re- career wildly years after retirement record showed nothing of intelligence sume. According to his DA Form 66, to compensate for twenty-one- training, but that he was a Chief Clerk he was a U.S. Army battalion com- years of “normal” service? Are there in the Language Service Branch (Klass mander for a time and Chief of the some people who regardless of their 1997). Again, as in the case of Corso, it Foreign Technology Division. He was accomplishments never seem to see is doubtful a person with Dean’s actual granted numerous awards and deco- themselves as accomplished unless it’s rank and status would be so casually rations and served in World War II truly fantastic? tossed the most important “Cosmic and Korea. He then retired March 1, Robert O. Dean is another person Top Secret” (which he called it) report 1963 (“Phillip J. Corso” 2016). But with a quality resume. He had a ca- just to keep him awake when a cup of in 1997, he published The Day After reer in the United States Army, start- coffee would do. Roswell where he claimed that when ing in 1950 and retiring in 1976. He Over the years, Dean has given he worked with the Foreign Technol- was in the wars of Korea and Vietnam several lectures and interviews that, ogy Division, not only did he divvy and highly decorated for his service. thankfully for us researchers, have up Russian and German tech to pri- He was at NATO headquarters from been uploaded to YouTube. The pres- vate companies for back engineering, 1963 to 1976 with a rank of master ervation of this material is invaluable. but he also sent out parts of the UFO sergeant (Klass 1997). Over the years, we can see how Dean Roswell crash as well. Watching Robert Dean “evolve” expands his story and adds extraordi- Why would a man of his prestige over the decades has been quite an nary pieces. And of course, all claims say such a thing if it were not true? adventure in itself. During his first come with no way to verify them.

Skeptical Inquirer November/December 2017 39 In one interview, he claimed he now and the ET went aboard a craft that was extremely rare that anyone is taken on- has personal contact with extraterres- out in space and translucent, allowing board [UFOs] . . . It is much rarer than trials, to have been “taken off world” him to see space all around him. Greer what UFO followers would have you where they gave him “encouragement” claimed the extraterrestrials wanted think” (StevenGreerArchive 2013). An- and showed him the future. (Project to communicate with someone who other missed opportunity to have dis- Camelot 2016). In a 2010 lecture, he re- could meditate like he does, and they cussed his own as told in 2006, I guess. ported he was now remote viewing (Vi- were concerned for a peaceful human Greer claimed he had the oppor- manaboy 2016). In another interview, race and were looking for ambassadors, tunity to “brief ” CIA director James he claimed a Navy Seal team was dis- which Greer agreed to become (Greer Woolsey on the subject during a din- patched to the “Ararat Anomaly,” which 2006, 23–24). He was then returned to ner party, but Woolsey, along with three was a large boat, and after several days Earth and descended the mountain at other signatories to a letter on the mat- of exploration, the team was extracted steps of “leaps of 20 to 30 feet at once” ter, explained that Greer took polite via helicopter with several “anomalous and his physical body actually was light! conversation and questions as affirma- artifacts that have never been described (Greer 2006, 26). tion of his view when in fact, it was not or named” (Project Camelot 2008). All None of this was revealed in Greer’s (Letter to Greer 1999). Why would a of these incredible claims are provided early UFO days when he appeared on CIA director need Greer’s briefing any- without a shred of evidence. Larry King Live in 1994. When King way? But that’s not all: He told pod- asked him, “How did you get into caster Joe Rogan that he was asked by [UFOs]?” He said he had an uncle who “someone senior involved with [Presi- worked on a project for an Apollo mis- dent Obama’s] team [to provide a UFO Dean claimed he now has personal sion, was himself interested in space, briefing]” (PowerfulJRE 2013). and that he had a UFO sighting himself To my knowledge, none of the people contact with extraterrestrials, to (StevenGreerArchive 2013). He makes I have discussed here started out with have been “taken off world” where no mention of multiple sightings, no tall tales. None of them, to the best of they gave him “encouragement” mention of being taken up in space, and my knowledge, fibbed on their resumes no springing down the mountaintop in to get into the military or medical and showed him the future. a body of light. Furthermore, when King school. We’re talking about people who asked him if he’s made any contact, he already had impressive resumes who said, “We have had limited exchange by seemingly needed to embellish their light signaling and graphic signaling work and life afterward. Why? Since no . . .” (StevenGreerArchive 2013). Then, proof has been provided to substantiate How about a nonmilitary person after explaining the signaling, he says, the above-noted claims, our answers with impressive accomplishments? “there have been reports of more ad- will have to be sought elsewhere. What of Dr. Steven M. Greer? He vanced communication but . . . any craft There are many reasons people lie: to earned a medical license in 1989, had capable of getting here from another avoid punishments, wish fulfillment, as a career as an emergency room doctor, star system is not gonna have technol- acts of aggression, to gain favor, to feel and held the position of chairman of ogy that would be used by AT&T so we powerful, to put one over on others, to the department of emergency medicine have to keep an open mind about what not hurt others’ feelings, and so forth. at Caldwell Memorial Hospital in Le- modalities of communication might be What I’d like to focus on that appears noir, North Carolina. He gave it all up out there” (StevenGreerArchive 2013). the most relevant to this study is what in 1998 to pursue his UFO Disclosure Wouldn’t this have been the place for is called “pseudologica fantastica,” oth- Project (Greer 2010), headquartered in Greer to have told King what he tells us erwise known as pathological lying. Crozet, Virginia. in the 2006 book? When King asks him This has been defined as Telling his origin story in 2006, how he knows extraterrestrials have no the repeated utterance of untruths; Greer says that in October 1973, he was hostile intentions and wish to establish the lies are often repeated over a at the top of Rich Mountain, 5,000 feet a liaison with them, instead of telling period of years, with the lies even- above the town of Boone, North Caro- King what he tells us in his 2006 book, tually becoming a lifestyle; material reward or social advantage does not lina. Before he meditated, he witnessed Greer answers that he knows this be- appear to be the primary motivating an extraterrestrial’s vehicle that was like cause he’s “. . . personally been within force but the lying is an end in itself; one he saw at the age of nine. He then a few hundred feet of these craft …” an inner dynamic rather than an meditated so hard he entered into a state and then the talk about signaling. Fi- external reason drives the lies, but of consciousness similar to a near-death nally, King takes a caller from Petoskey, when an external reason is suspected, the lies are far in excess of the sus- experience he had years earlier. When Michigan, who asks if there is proof of pected external reason; the lies are he started to walk down the mountain, alien abductions where people are taken often woven into complex narratives. he was greeted by an extraterrestrial. He and returned. Greer says, “I think it is (Dike et al. 2005)

40 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer There may or may not be a neurological aliens, claiming you handled UFO wreck- Psychology of Deceit. Washington, D.C.: American Psychiatric Press. defect behind why someone would en- age but couldn’t keep any—all of these are Greer, Steven M. 2006. Hidden Truth, Forbidden gage in this behavior (Ford 1999, 136; difficult to prove conclusively one way or Knowledge. Virginia: Crossing Point. ———. 2010. Credentials. Available online at Dike et al. 2005). In other words, per- the other. Plus, in regard to UFOs, the http://www.disclosureproject.org/presskit/ fectly “normal” people, even those with mythology of a military/government credentials.shtml; accessed July 13, 2017. true and proven accomplishments, may cover up has been in place since the be- Klass, Philip J. 1998. Philip J. Corso’s Roswell book is riddled with factual errors as well engage in this behavior. ginning of the modern UFO era—1947. as [the] ridiculous claim that army couldn’t As an example, witness Judge Patrick All one has to do is plug their narrative figure out how to exploit (alleged) ET technology for 14 Years until Corso was given Couwenberg who in 2001 was investi- into it. It already has an audience. the task. The Skeptics UFO Newsletter 49 gated by the State of California Commis- Are Phillip J. Corso, Robert O. Dean, ( January 1). Available online at http://www. sion on Judicial Performance for constant and Stephen M. Greer engaging in csicop.org/specialarticles/show/klass_files_ volume_49. lies during the course of his duties and for make-believe as described above? I don’t ———.1997. UFOlogist Robert Dean claims outright lying to the Commission, claim- know. Either they are telling something “it’s quite easy to lie to the American public,” and demonstrates this claim to be true. The ing he was employed by the CIA, taking truthful or they are not. It’s quite possi- Skeptics UFO Newsletter 48 (November 1). part in operations in Southeast Asia and ble all three truly believe what they are Available online at http://www.csicop.org/ Africa and that he had a master’s degree saying and not consciously lying. But in specialarticles/show/klass_files_volume_48. Letter to Greer. 1999. Available online at in psychology. None of this was true any case, it is up to them to bring forth http://siriusdisclosure.com/wp-content/ (Dike et al 2005). the evidence, which they have not. If their uploads/2013/03/1999-Woolsey-Peters- en-letter.pdf; accessed July 13, 2017. Also witness another judge, Judge Jack extraordinary claims are false (and they Nintzel, Jim, and Hector Acuna. 1995. Secrets Montgomery, in the State of Alabama. appear to be), then the only explanation and saucers: For Tucsonan Bob Dean, the appears to be a psychological one spec- truth is out there. Tucson Weekly ( June 29– Through an FBI investigation in 1992 July 5). Available online at http://www. and subsequent trial for taking bribes, he ulated here, a need to embellish a rather tucsonweekly.com/tw/06-29-95/cover.htm; was found to have told some outlandish “normal” career, a need to make their lives accessed July 13, 2017. “Phillip J. Corso.” 2016. Available online at lies. He claimed to have been the first more exciting than they actually are per- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_J._ herpetologist at the Birmingham Zoo ceived to be (by them), a wish fulfilled. Corso; accessed July 13, 2016. I remember my time in college, bright- PowerfulJRE. 2013. Joe Rogan Experience #331 - and to have been a tortured prisoner of Dr. Steven Greer. Available online at https:// war in China in the Korean War. None of eyed, out to change the world. I imagine www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gVLv5eg4Xg; this was true (Ford 1999, 134). lots of young people have the same world accessed July 13, 2017. Project Camelot. 2008. Project Camelot inter- Some people do embellish their al- outlook. College or military or none-of- views Bob Dean: The coming of Nibiru. ready impressive careers and lives with the-above, we all want great things for Available online at https://www.youtube. ourselves when we journey into adult- com/watch?v=AbgHyrmgRZM; accessed fantastic adventures and accomplish- July 13, 2017. ments, and they seem to do so for no hood. Is it possible that once we move ———. 2016. Bob Dean and Clifford Stone other reason than for the sake of telling into the real world and most of us feel Project Camelot great interview. Available online at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v= the lie itself. So, when you hear that a wild like we’ve led “normal” or otherwise dk4ls_1QCyI; accessed July 13, 2017. story must be true because the person is “uneventful” lives we start making stuff StevenGreerArchive. 2013. Steven Greer - Larry up? If we take financial gain out of the King Live - UFO Cover-Up - Oct 1, 1994. not out to seek financial rewards or might Available online at https://www.youtube. actually risk a social standing, those fac- equation, the only other solution as to com/watch?v=CzsjzS7O4cU; accessed July why this happens is that the person is 13, 2017. tors aren’t a part of the equation. Vimanaboy. 2016. Robert O. Dean @ Bay Area So why would anyone embellish their making up for a perceived failure to be UFO Expo 2010. Available online at https:// lives with UFOs? It works great for those part of something greater. www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDi1UyI4loo; accessed July 13, 2017. making up a unique life. It accomplishes To answer my question that started at least two things: first, it’s pretty cool (to all of this: yes, sometimes otherwise ac- this author) and second, the vaguer and complished people will invent tall tales Eric Wojciechowski has more unverifiable the claim, the less likely for any number of reasons. Some choose a degree in psychology it is to be proven a fraud. It’s the same great war stories; others choose to em- from Oakland Univer- bellish their personal narratives with sity and writes essays game played by televangelists. Someone n who claims to have been in contact with great adventures with UFOs. and articles on politics, aliens or to be speaking to God holds all References religion, pseudoscience, the cards. You can’t ever with 100 per- and woo-woo. Other Dike, Charles C., Madelon Baranoski, and published work can be cent satisfaction conclude a fakery, unlike Ezra E.H. Griffith. 2005. Pathological lying someone who may fib research results in revisited. Journal of the American Academy found at American Atheists magazine and of Psychiatry and the Law 33(3): 342–349. Free Inquiry. His 1997 article in Skeptic a lab that can be easily duplicated and re- Available online at http://www.jaapl.org/ tested by other scientists. Making claims content/33/3/342.long. magazine examining claims of Zecharia Dolan, Richard. 2014. UFOS for the 21st Century Sitchin was chosen for inclusion in The that you were once allowed to review se- Mind. New York: Richard Dolan Press. cret dossiers and reports of contact with Ford, Charles V. 1999. Lies! Lies! Lies! The Skeptic Encyclopedia of Pseudoscience.

Skeptical Inquirer November/December 2017 41 Ten Questions (and Answers) about Teaching Evolution

A high school biology teacher asked the Richard Dawkins Foundation for Reason & Science (a division of the Center for Inquiry) a series of questions about teaching evolution. Bertha Vazquez, director the foundation’s Teacher Institute for Evolutionary Science (TIES), answered. We thought her answers deserved sharing with Skeptical Inquirer readers. BERTHA VAZQUEZ and CHRISTOPHER FREIDHOFF

1. What do you think are the main factors that 3. Why is it important for students influence how effective a biology teacher to understand evolution? is at teaching evolution? Evolution is cool! It’s a beautiful web that It’s all about content knowledge. A teacher underlies biology, making everything con- should know the definition of a scientific nected. It explains the history and diversity theory, current examples of evolution, and, of all of the amazing life on Earth. And, in a as a result, have confidence when teaching practical sense, it helps us develop new med- the subject. ications and plays a key role in conservation 2. How does evolution education differ from of ecosystems. country to country? 4. What type of evidence is important for students to view in a biology classroom? Our teachers [in the United States] have to constantly defend evolution. That’s not the It is important that they understand that case in most first-world countries. Like Rich- there are multiple lines of evidence for evo- ard says in The Greatest Show on Earth, it’s lution all leading to the same conclusion. Ev- like a professor of Roman history having to idence for evolution comes from many areas, defend the existence of the Roman Empire including the fossil record, the law of super- every year, year after year. I’m not as familiar position, biogeography, artificial selection, with other countries, but as far as the United homologous structures, vestigial organs, and States is concerned, I am getting published genetics. Teachers should definitely cover soon in a journal titled Evolution: Education phylogenetics. and Outreach. I did a comprehensive state- 5. What techniques should be used by-state comparison of our nation’s middle for teaching evolution? school science standards. It is now available online at https://evolution-outreach.spring- Make sure students understand scientific eropen.com/articles/10.1186/s12052-017- inquiry first and how science finds answers 0066-2. through observation, experiments, data collection, and sharing results. Try hands-on activities—and it’s very important to use

42 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer modern-day examples of evolution, not just United States has been a wonderfully inno- Darwin and his finches. For middle school vative and scientifically curious country; this teachers, try the TIES Online Learning is one of the most wonderful things about Page (the hands-on labs are available for free our great nation. I’m worried that scientific download and come with instructional vid- discoveries and the economic benefits that eos to guide new teachers). For high school accompany them will begin happening more teachers: HHMI BioInteractive is the gold in other countries. Look at green technol- standard. ogy, for example, and how much profit there is to be made in that field! We are not taking 6. What is your opinion of biology teachers who don’t accept evolution? advantage of it just so the fossil fuel industry can continue making profits. Imagine if the They do not understand how science finds candle-makers had impeded the promotion its answers and are doing a terrible disservice of Edison’s light bulb! It’s tragic. to their students. 9. How should the education of science teach- 7. At what point do you think students ers change to have more effective teachers should be exposed to evolution? in the classroom? Students should be exposed to evolution We have become an assessment-mad cul- in elementary school. There are some ex- ture, with too much emphasis placed on test ceptional states that start in early elemen- scores. In my district, teaching practically tary. For example, in Massachusetts, their shuts down for six weeks so all of the tests PreK–2nd Grade standards document reads can be administered. Instead of so much that students should “Look at a variety of emphasis on teaching teachers how to ana- fossils or pictures of fossils, including plants, lyze test data, give them content knowledge fish, and extinct species. Guess what living on the science topics they must cover. Em- organisms they might be related to.” This phasize hands-on activities and lessons that is wonderful. Evolution ties the life sciences highlight the scientific method. I know it’s together and is the perfect thread. “Without costly, but new teachers should have time to evolution, life science is just stamp-collect- observe worthy veteran teachers for as long ing.” These youngsters will begin to see the as possible. big picture early. Even pre-schoolers can 10. What challenges do students who begin to understand how living things share don’t accept the evidence of evolution face a common history. I recommend Grand- when they go to college? mother Fish: A Child’s First Book of Evolution by Jonathan Tweet for this age group. I stress the way science finds its answers to questions about the natural world around 8. With the current administration, how do you think science education, mainly evolu- us. Evolution is an elegant example of how tion, will change? thousands of repeatedly tested hypotheses, countless observations, and collaborations Americans are becoming more accepting over 170 years led to a big idea in science. of evolution. The people President Donald Not accepting evolution can be a handicap Trump has hired and the decisions being because it means you do not understand how n made will slow down this positive trend. science works. (See, for example, Florida SB 989, which went into effect on July 1, 2017. It allows any county resident—not just parents—to challenge materials used in the public schools. The law doesn’t mention evolution or any other topic in particular, but it requires Bertha Vazquez, a biology teacher herself, is direc- school districts to set up a formal process to tor of the Teacher Institute for Evolutionary Science field complaints from any resident about the (TIES), Richard Dawkins Foundation for Reason & Sci- content of educational materials. Any Flor- ence, a division of the Center for Inquiry. ida citizen can challenge the teaching of climate change, evolution, you name it.) Dar- win said, “Ignorance begets confidence more Christopher J. Freidhoff is a high school biology often than knowledge.” People who do not teacher in Pennsylvania. He presented these ques- know what they are talking about will make tions as part of a college Research Methods class. decisions that will hurt us as a nation. The Published here by permission of all involved.

Skeptical Inquirer November/December 2017 43 Critical Thinking and Parenting How Skepticism Saved My Special Needs Kid from Certain Death You are a skeptic, and your child has autism. How do you react? AMY FRUSHOUR KELLY

s a skeptic, I try to view the world in healthy children, you have to balance the time you spend with your special needs kid with time spent with their siblings. a rational way, but I’m also a parent, Money. Insurance never covers everything. You still pay Awhich means I’m insane. for medication, adaptive equipment, after-school care. Even In April 1995, I became very ill. My doctor performed tests if your child receives social security, it doesn’t go far. You may and found a parasite dwelling in my abdomen. I was overjoyed. have legal fees, for example having to set up a special-needs During the infestation, I experienced nausea, exhaustion, and trust. Save all you can so when your child becomes an adult, frequent urination. Finally, I endured hours of excruciating she or he will be well cared-for. Try not to think what will pain, culminating in surgical extraction. Afterward, I hugged happen when you’re not there anymore. the parasite and named it after a dead poet. I brought it home, Energy. You probably work a forty-hour week. Your spouse cuddled it, and bought it many nice toys. The parasite emitted (if you have one) probably also works. And you have a home. piercing screams and soiled itself. I found this encouraging And children. So you come home from work to deal with your and took many photographs. kids’ needs, cooking, cleaning, and homework. You’re probably Twenty-two years have gone by since the infestation. The dealing with all this as a single parent; 80 percent of marriages parasite lives in my house and downloads music from iTunes with special-needs kids end in divorce (Thorpe N.d.; Ander- without my permission. I’m a rational person, but I’m smitten. son et al. 2007). Extended family can ease the burden, but the I’d do anything for her. stress is still phenomenal. She is my daughter, Emily. She’s disabled, and she’s any- There’s joy, too. You get excited over every milestone and thing but a parasite to me. bond over silly stuff like any other family. Ultimately, this is Meet the Parents your child, and you’ll do whatever it takes to help this kid grow up as safe, happy, and healthy as possible. If this means When it comes to skepticism, parents of children with dis- sacrifices or trying things that are a little out of your comfort abilities are a special case. Special-needs parents are particu- zone, fine. larly vulnerable to fraudulent claims and quack medicine and are often shamed for not trying alternative cures. Imagine: So when someone tells you about a cure they heard about your child has been diagnosed with a chronic condition that for your child’s disability, your guard is down. It’s easy—and cannot be cured. Everything you’d hoped for your child—to probably expensive—but it’s a cure. grow up to be a happy, healthy, independent individual—has This messes with your head in two ways: obviously, the been taken away. You mourn the child you expected to have happy (but unlikely) possibility that your kid can be cured, while still trying to be the best parent you can be for the child but also the guilt and shame you’ll feel if you don’t try it. The you do have. Special-needs parenting requires extraordinary implication of the existence of a cure is that it’s within your commitments, among them: control. What happens if you don’t try this new treatment? Time. Parenthood demands taking time for your kids, obvi- Maybe your child won’t get better. You could have done some- ously. Special-needs parenting demands more. Time for ther- thing, and you didn’t…. Shame on you for not even trying. apy, doctor’s appointments, time off work. If you have other, What do you do?

44 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer Seizure the Day lection of data for information and the hysterical collection When my two-year-old daughter was diagnosed with of data because oh my god, she’s gonna die! The statistic I got autism, it broke my heart. Every night, I drove myself nuts my number from was based on females who were in good researching autism treatments. I was a classic special-needs health, but what counts as good health? I did more frantic parent: constantly stressed out, reading everything I could research and arrived at a statistical mortality rate of 0.00041 find on the subject, and desperate for answers to fundamen- percent (Minino 2010), 800 percent of which is 0.00326 per- tal questions: Why does she have autism? What can I do to cent. Reasonable, right? I could relax. mitigate it? How do I advocate for her? Or could I? Statistics are useless when it comes to indi- When Andrew Wakefield’s now-discredited paper posited a viduals. Besides, what if I did my math wrong? The parental vaccine-autism link, I was cautiously optimistic, and then disap- part of my brain had turned into a raving lunatic. But my pointed to learn Emily’s MMR vaccine hadn’t contained thimer- reasoning was flawed. My starting premise was “she’s gonna osal. While our experience with the vaccine claim was quickly die,” a far cry from “my daughter has a relatively common debunked, not all autism parents had that comfort. I’ll never for- seizure disorder, and she will in all likelihood be fine.” get hugging another parent as he sobbed with guilt because he’d I’m literally a card-carrying skeptic, and even I had trou- held his daughter down for the injection that (he thought) might ble discerning actual danger from what wasn’t dangerous. have caused her autism. Can you imagine how much harder it is for the average spe- It seemed like there was a new treatment or cure every month. cial-needs parent? When I didn’t try treatments that seemed experimental or quack- ish, I felt guilty. Other parents admitted feeling the same way. But Emily was growing up healthy and happy, even without woo. I eventually stopped feeling guilty for not jumping on treatments that seemed iffy. In February 2009, Emily experienced a tonic-clonic (grand mal) seizure. At the emergency room, I learned that about 25 percent of children with autism experience at least one seizure by the time they reach adulthood (Brain Injury Association N.d.). Later that year, after her second seizure, she received her epilepsy diagnosis. With medication, she was fine. In July 2012, two months shy of being seizure-free for three years, Emily had a complex partial seizure. A twenty-four–hour video EEG revealed abnormalities, spikes in brain activity, and subclinical seizures during sleep. We adjusted her medi- cations with every seizure. Since then, the frequency and du- ration of the seizures has increased. Epilepsy is here to stay. As I write this, she averages about one episode a week, and now has simple (conscious) partial seizures as well. Fun. It’s easy to joke, to refer to my daughter as my parasite. But Emily’s my only child, and like other special-needs parents, Parents Again I tend to go overboard on her behalf. When her seizures re- Emily likes to go bowling or see movies with her friends, turned in 2012, I found an article from the Journal of Child who also have autism. We parents drive them and chat while Neurology, which terrified me: “when epilepsy and autism oc- the kids have fun. Sometimes we discuss past treatments. curred together, the mortality rates increased by more than Some gave their kids vitamins or special diets. Some tried 800 percent” (Pickett et al. 2011). chelation or hyperbaric therapy. They’ve all been burned I also discovered something called Sudden Unexplained at one time or another by pseudoscience and have all spent Death in Epilepsy (SUDEP). The cause of death is unknown, thousands of dollars. They’re all cynical about autism treat- but subclinical seizures during sleep are suspected (Sudden ments yet—ironically—when they learn about Emily’s epi- Unexpected Death, N.d.; Sperling 2001). Just like Emily. Being a parent (and therefore insane), I became hysterical. lepsy, they don’t hesitate to make suggestions based on some- Our neurologist was sympathetic but not encouraging. Even thing they saw on the Internet: Have we tried melatonin? with heightened risk, SUDEP is extremely unlikely. What I The ketogenic diet? Aromatherapy? Medical marijuana? heard was: Emily could die! (One parent actually tried to give me a vape kit and cannabis I fixated on the 800 percent increased mortality rate, cal- oil—which is illegal in the state where we live.) culating average mortality for an American female (Xu et al. Separating the wheat from the chaff isn’t easy, especially 2007) and multiplying to estimate a 0.00416 percent chance when you’re dealing with the pressures of parenthood and of early death. So Emily’s in more danger of dying in a car disability. This makes us all the more vulnerable. Further- accident than of SUDEP. Not so bad, right? But emotion more, different doctors make different recommendations. made it difficult to differentiate between the reasonable col- Emily’s pediatrician had different recommendations than

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2017 45 the pediatric neurologist. When Emily switched to an adult use, it’s probably because a more effective or reliable treatment neurologist, he had a slate of new protocols to run through. exists. While we’ve been careful to stick with evidence-based med- How do parents know to ask these questions? Education icine, many medical professionals don’t. When the line be- is a good place to start. Let’s see famous figures on television tween hard medicine and woo is blurred, it’s confusing. Just explaining those questions and why evidence-based medicine recently, Emily’s school sent home a flyer for a new integrated is so important. For most first-time parents attend birthing medicine center for autism, where patients can receive reiki classes, parenting classes, etc., let’s add a lesson: how to eval- treatments while they get speech therapy. With woo consis- uate medical information. The National Institutes of Health tently lumped in with evidence-based medicine, how can par- has excellent video tutorials to help people assess results of ents know how to tell the good from bad? How do we protect Internet health searches (Evaluating Health Information parents—and kids—from quack treatments? 2017). We can guide parents through these tutorials before their children are even born. And brochures and posters can illustrate the basics of how to locate and identify valuable health information. Make them available from obstetricians, pediatricians, and school nurse offices. Finally, let’s advocate for the inclusion of this information How do parents know to ask in public school health education programs. Teach kids how these questions? Education is to perform a useful Internet health search while they’re still in school. These lessons will stay with them when they become n a good place to start. Let’s see adults—and parents—themselves. famous figures on television References Anderson, Donna, et al. 2007. The personal costs of caring for a child with a disability: A review of the literature. Public Health Report 122(1) ( Jan- explaining those questions and Feb): 3–16, US National Library of Medicine—National Institute of Health. Available online at http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/. why evidence-based medicine Brain Injury Association of Queensland. Nd. Seizures, epilepsy and autism. Autism Spectrum Disorders Factsheets. Available online at http:// www.autism-help.org/comorbid-seizures-autism.htm. is so important. Evaluating Health Information. 2017. MedlinePlus, U.S. National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health. Available online at http:// www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/evaluatinghealthinformation.html. Minino, Arialdi M. 2010. Mortality among teenagers aged 12–19 years: United States, 1999–2006. NCHS Data Brief 37 (May). U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics. Available online at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db37.pdf. Vet the Net Pickett, J., E. Xiu, R. Tuchman, et al. 2011. Mortality in individuals with autism, with and without epilepsy. Journal of Child Neurology 26(8). DOI: 10.1177/0883073811402203. Available online at http://journals. There are certain questions we should always ask whenever a sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0883073811402203. treatment is publicized anywhere: (Using Trusted Resources Sperling, Michael R. 2001. Sudden unexplained death in epilepsy. Epilepsy 2015) Currents 1(1): 21–23. Available online at http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih. gov/pmc/. Who manages this information? Sudden Unexpected Death in Epilepsy. N.d. Available online at http:// en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_unexpected_death_in_epilepsy. Who posted the information? Are they generally reliable? Is Thorpe, Jen. N.d. Divorce rate higher among couples with special needs it a medical organization, a pharmaceutical corporation, or a children (blog post). Families.com. Available online at https://www. private individual? families.com/blog/divorce-rate-higher-among-couples-with-special- needs-children. Who’s paying for the project, and what’s their purpose? Using Trusted Resources. 2015. National Cancer Institute, National What’s in it for the organization that’s paying for the website Institutes of Health. Available online at http://www.cancer.gov/cancer- topics/cancerlibrary/health-info-online. or study this information comes from? Xu, Jiaquan, et al. 2007. Vintage 2007 bridged-race postcensal population What’s the original source of the information? estimates. National Vital Statistics System. U.S. Department of Health Did the authors research their topic in medical journals? Are and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics. Available online at www.cdc.gov/ multiple sources cited? nchs/nvss/bridged_race/data_documentation.htm#vintage2007. How is information reviewed before it gets posted or publicized? Peer-reviewed medical journals are a good start. The National Amy Frushour Kelly is a professional writer and Institutes of Health, Cancer.gov, and CDC.gov also provide copy editor in Long Island, New York. She has peer-reviewed information with links to sources. presented on autism several times at Skep- How current is the information? ticamp NYC and appeared in a 2014 NECSS Medical research is conducted constantly all over the world. workshop. She wrote and hosted “The Practical Start with data based on recent findings and work your way Skeptic,” a recurring segment on the Skeptical back. If a treatment was popular in the 1800s then fell out of Connections podcast. 46 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer Hollywood Curse Legends There are many myths behind movie lore concerning jinxes and mysterious deaths, but a closer look reveals these curses to be attributable more to publicity and rumor than to the supernatural. BRETT TAYLOR

ollywood, myth-infused home of the movie industry, is like any other town in that it has its share of curses and mysterious legends. Stories about cursed productions take Hon a life of their own, making horror movies in particular seem even more ominous and frightening than if they were just works of entertainment. When a movie deals with the sub- continent four weeks after all his ject of demons, it is all too easy to be- scenes had been filmed. Then there lieve in a curse. Be it superstition or was the death of the brother of actor not, many people believe that merely Max von Sydow, which the veteran dealing with occult subjects, dabbling actor learned of during the shoot. As in them, is a sure way to invoke malev- with MacGowran, the death occurred olent forces. The legend of the curse in another part of the world, Scandi- surrounding the film The Exorcist can navia. It is even more of a stretch to be traced to promotional materials, blame this on The Exorcist. specifically book tie-ins, including Newman’s text is actually a bit Harold Newman’s The Exorcist: The more circumspect in its implica- Strange Story Behind the Film. Blame tions. As for near-fatal occurrences, might be more correctly placed on the the most dramatic is the one that book’s publishers, Pinnacle Books, for opens Newman’s book, an accident their marketing. Two fatal incidents that nearly claimed the life of Jordan related to the production are noted in Miller, the five-year-old son of actor Newman’s book. The most pertinent Jason Miller (who played Father is the death of actor Jack MacGowran Damien Karras). Newman certainly from influenza. It is something of a has no problem with sensationalism stretch to blame MacGowran’s death or any hesitancy about spreading ru- on The Exorcist, as he died on another mors. But he stops short of explicitly

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2017 47 endorsing them (Newman 1974). in the movie, but the producers decided to use a different Critic Mark Kermode claimed that William Friedkin, plane for aerial photography, whereupon the original plane director of The Exorcist, “played up” these sorts of rumors, crashed upon takeoff, killing all on board. Satan, it seems, was especially MacGowran’s death, presumably as a means of unaware of the change in planes. If there was a curse, then publicity. Questioned by interviewer Michael Doyle, Friedkin that means a number of people were punished, not for being denied Kermode’s claim. “He’s wrong,” said Friedkin, before associated with the movie but for riding on a plane that was going on to elaborate: “I never ‘played up’ rumors of an Exor- almost, but not quite, associated with the movie. cist curse, although the idea of such a thing has been around Director Richard Donner scoffed at any supernatural no- almost since the beginning of [production on] the film. No, tion: “I say no, it’s just an incredible coincidence. There are people like Ellen Burstyn played up those rumors, not me. I those that would like to think about it, that it’s something did everything I could to deny the existence of a curse and more. And when the publicity department at Fox got their I don’t accept the idea now.” The director indicated that an hands upon it, we all said, yes, it’s The Omen, because we’re all actor expiring after a shoot was less unnerving than having selling our movie” (Curse or Coincidence? 2006). an actor die on the set: “Yes, there were strange things that Movie rumors are sometimes spread by shadowy sources. went on but there had been stranger The tabloid National Enquirer used and more troublesome events that have anonymous sources in a story about occurred on movie sets—like people mysterious events relating to the dying during the course of shooting.” Poltergeist movies. An agnostic, Friedkin concluded, An unnamed source, supposedly “Personally, I don’t believe in curses, “close” to the series, was quoted thus: but I’ve only mentioned them because “The films have been plagued by you just asked me about The Exorcist such problems and tragedies that it curse—as many others have over the really makes you wonder if some- years” (Doyle 2013). body—or something—was trying Despite such denials, Kermode to tell us something” (George et al. seems to have had a reliable source in 1988). This source could have been the late William Peter Blatty, who wrote anybody from a studio executive to and coproduced The Exorcist. Blatty was a lowly crewmember to someone in a believer in the afterlife and gave some the publicity department. Or, given credence to the notion of supernatural the Enquirer’s track record, the quote forces, yet he dismissed the much- could have been fabricated. ballyhooed Exorcist curse as purely Certainly the films are associated Friedkin’s invention. Surprisingly, he with a number of untimely deaths. does not accuse the director of inventing But if someone was trying to send the legend for publicity purposes. an occultic message, who were they Instead, he believes Friedkin needed and what was the message? Urban an excuse to explain the production’s legends provide a partial explanation. numerous and costly delays to impatient (and penny-pinching) When word got out that the skeletons seen in the original executives at Warner Brothers. The motivation Blatty ascribes film’s climax (described below) were actual cadavers, a story is faintly laughable, as it’s hard to imagine many cynical began that the misuse of corpses was at the root of the result- Hollywood producer-types being moved by a director blaming ing occurrences. This explanation is ironic, in that the movie budget overruns on supernatural forces, possibly including the uses similar disrespect for corpses to explain the poltergeist devil (Kermode 1998). activity. The curse as a publicity tool certainly reared its head Actress JoBeth Williams seems to have been a major factor with The Omen, an expensive attempt to rekindle the kind in spreading these rumors. While chatting on Johnny Car- of unholy profits summoned by The Exorcist. Once again, we son’s The Tonight Show to promote Brian Gibson’s Poltergeist have the death of a movie star’s relative; in this case Gregory II: The Other Side, Williams claimed that actual corpses were Peck’s son shot himself. This death has only a tenuous link her costars in the original film. In Poltergeist, Williams falls since it occurred two months before Peck began the film. The screaming into a swimming pool full of muddy water and movie was cursed from the beginning, if we are to believe Bob grotesque skeletons. Production of the second film was only Munger, the religious adviser who came up with the idea for rescued from preternatural turmoil because the filmmakers the film. called in an Indian shaman to the cave that provided the If Satan was indeed behind the Omen curse, then it was setting for the film’s climax. He performed a ceremony that surely one of his cruelest curses, or most random, as it also apparently appeased the spirits, temporarily at least. In more involves mass death resulting from a plane crash. The prob- recent interviews, Williams often reminisces about coming lem with attributing the crash to a curse is that the plane was home from the first film to find the picture frames on her never actually used in the movie. It was scheduled to be used wall mysteriously slanted.

48 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer Williams has admitted being terrified during the swim- darkened sets. And people fell into the swimming pool next ming pool scene—attributing her fear not to the fact that to the house the main characters lived in. But those kinds of she was swimming with corpses but because she feared elec- things happen on a Neil Simon film. (Calio 1982) trocution. It seems bizarre that real corpses would be used in Some movies are said to be cursed in some vague way due an expensive Hollywood production, yet the film’s makeup to unfortunate circumstance. Rebel Without a Cause is some- artist, Craig Reardon, swore under oath that thirteen of the times called the most cursed film of all due to the high num- swimming pool corpses were real (Furtney 2013). ber of deaths associated with it—deaths of actors that is. Yet Author James Kahn, enlisted to write the novelization of these deaths occurred years after the film was released. Nick Poltergeist, claimed to be haunted by “actual poltergeist events” Adams died in 1968 and Sal Mineo in 1976. The last death, while writing the novel, or so he has been quoted by the Na- Natalie Wood’s, occurred almost three decades after Rebel was tional Enquirer. When asked directly, the author is not quite shot. Director Nicholas Ray went on to live another two and a so dramatic: “I’m not really a believer in paranormal experi- half decades, though by then his career was long decimated by ences, as such,” he told me in a 2013 Facebook message. a life of self-destruction. But if there is a curse on Rebel With- When little Heather O’Rourke (the girl famously depicted out a Cause, why? Is God punishing the filmmakers for their with her hands on a haunted television on Poltergeist posters) wild lifestyles? If so, why did Dennis Hopper, no stranger died from a bowel defect at the age of twelve, the National to excess himself, go on to live for decades, eventually stag- Enquirer didn’t wait long to attribute the actress’s death to a ing one of Hollywood’s biggest comebacks in the eighties? supernatural cause. The most popular U.S. tabloid cited “bi- Hopper is practically the only member of the youthful cast zarre events on the sets of the films—including vanishing not to be bisexual, giving God’s wrath a Sodom and Gomor- scripts and mysterious problems with a sound track.” Appar- rah-like overtone, if indeed he is the deity responsible for all ently disappearing scripts were a recurring theme on the first this senseless dying. film, with the copies belonging to actresses Zelda Rubinstein Brandon Lee’s death on the set of The Crow might be and JoBeth Williams all vanishing at some point. easier to write off as one more movie accident were it not The sequel, Poltergeist II: The Other Side, led to more for the eerie parallels with the death of Lee’s father, martial mysterious script disappearances. Actor Will Sampson, of arts great Bruce Lee. Bruce’s death was already shrouded in the Creek Nation, performed a spiritual ritual to cleanse the mystery. For the world’s greatest athlete to suddenly die of a house used for shooting of unclean spirits. Supposedly this brain embolism at a young age was too much for some fans was due to his conviction that the house was full of myste- to take, and rumors spread that he’d been felled by a “death rious malign threats, but the act nonetheless has the air of a touch,” assassinated by traditionalists outraged that Lee had publicity stunt. Julian Beck, a legend of bohemian theatre, spread their secrets in the West (Halland 1985). died at the age of sixty, soon after filming his creepy portrayal The idea of martial arts gangsters sneaking an assassin of an evil reverend. Beck had been diagnosed with abdominal onto a North Carolina movie set and taking out a budding cancer at least a year before, so his death was hardly unex- action star is ridiculous but theoretically possible. Yet no ev- pected (Folkart 1985). idence of foul play has ever turned up. As far as can be de- College-age Dominique Dunne was strangled by her termined, a crew member simply loaded a gun with a real ex-boyfriend right after making the first Poltergeist, but fate bullet instead of the fake he was supposed to use. New Line allowed little Heather O’Rourke to live to make two sequels. Cinema’s cost-cutting non-union tactics, built on a founda- If some supernatural force wanted her dead, why would it tion of fatigue-inducing sixteen-hour shooting days, were a wait so long? Why would it single out the two young girls recipe for disaster when combined with dangerous stunts, and of Poltergeist but allow the boy, Oliver Robins, to live? What had already led to the electrocution of a carpenter and the supernatural criteria are at work here? Robins is on record as disfigurement of a construction worker’s hand. not believing in the curse. As he put it: Even unmade movies are the subject of mystery-mon- There wasn’t anything abnormal from any other set I’d ever gering lore. A humorous story about an Eskimo is the un- been on. There are always technical problems, but people likely source of the most famously cursed unmade script always want to bring those elements together because it’s a of all. Todd Caroll of National Lampoon adapted a satirical ghost movie and it’s easy to connect the dots. People want novel by Mordecai Richler, The Incomparable Atuk, into a film to believe it’s haunted or it’s cursed, when the fact is those same things happen on almost every other set. For instance, script. Dwarfish and fat, the embittered ex-preacher standup they said on one of the Poltergeist installments the film got comic Sam Kinison was about as unlikely as a movie star can fogged. Well, that happens all the time; when I was in film get. The film was shut down after a single day of New York school that happened to me all the time. It’s just a technical shooting in February 1988 (“Film Production Notes” 1988). error, you know. Of course it’s fun to talk about because of No mysterious force was behind the film’s cessation. Kinison the ghosts in the movie. (Rob 2009) never bothered to read the script, telling friend Joey Gaynor Nor does Steven Spielberg believe in the legend. Asked he’d read it when he got to the set. He must not have liked by People if anything eerie happened on the set, he answered: what he read. Shutting down production was an extremely No. But this wasn’t a demonic possession movie like The risky act on Kinison’s part, as breach of contract does not sit Exorcist. This was more about aspects of life after death. well with the studios. United Artists slapped Kinison and Sure, lights fell, and people bumped into each other on his manager Elliott Abbott with a lawsuit, demanding $4.6

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2017 49 ADVERTISEMENT “With their book’s brisk pace and energetic writing, Prothero million in actual damages plus another million in punitive manager Bernie Brillstein, whereas I can find no concrete and Callahan o er entertainment as well as wisdom for damages (“Shrieking Comic” 1988). evidence the actor was ever considering Atuk or that there everyone who’s ever wondered what’s behind so many None of this is particularly eerie, but here’s where curse was ever serious interest in the project until the script was lore comes in, taking the form of a story that the Atuk script presented to Kinison. conspiracy theories and paranormal phenomena.” means certain death—that it in fact killed not only Kinison Maidee Walker, a writer who was shopping the script around —Publishers Weekly (Starred Review) but also other comic actors who had considered the role. It town, later admitted, “I interviewed every fat actor in Hollywood” seems that John Belushi, John Candy, and Chris Farley were for the role. The problem with this curse story is that the script also victims of Atuk. Keep in mind that Kinison didn’t die has also attracted a number of actors who are still with us, such until three years after the one-day shoot, making this a some- as Will Ferrell, Jack Black, John Goodman, and Josh Mostel, as what delayed curse. well as one comic, Jonathan Winters, who lived to a ripe old age. Also there is the rather obvious point that the actors who died early lived rather unhealthy lifestyles. We all like to attach special significance to the events in our lives to make our lives appear unique. We like to see ourselves as worthy of attracting preternatural attention, rather than merely We all like to attach special being victims of harmless pranks, theft, or our own forgetfulness. This is true even of famous actors with disappearing scripts. The significance to the events in human tendency is to find significance of some kind, religious or our lives to make our lives occult, to things that would otherwise be written off as mundane or coincidental. appear unique. We like to see This is true of anyone: famous actors, less famous crew members, on down to journalists and anonymous fans. If such stories ourselves as worthy of attract- can provide good publicity for a movie franchise, so much the better. As long as a curse or similar mysterious story provides an ing preternatural attention. element of the eerie and keeps interest in a movie series alive, “UFOs, Chemtrails, and Aliens is a n these stories will live on in the public imagination. model of scienti c reasoning, rational References analysis, and elegant prose.” Calio, Jim. 1982. Steven Spielberg’s musings on Poltergeist. People (November 1). —Michael Shermer, As far as I can tell, the story of the Atuk curse can be Curse or Coincidence? featurette. 2006. The Omen Collector’s Edition, (DVD). publisher of Skeptic magazine Twentieth-Century Fox Studios. traced back to Doug Draizin, the producer who first offered Doyle, Michael. 2013. Is there someone inside you? Rue Morgue 140 the screenplay to Kinison. Draizin seemed to have a meager (December). UFOs. Aliens. Strange crop circles. Giant gures scratched foundation upon which to build his reputation, so an associa- Film production notes. 1988. Variety (May 4). in the desert surface along the coast of Peru. Strange lines tion with a spooky curse was better than nothing (not surpris- Folkart, Burt A. 1985. Julian Beck, 60, living theater founder. Los Angeles of clouds in the sky. The paranormal is alive and well in the Times (September 18). ingly, the producer declined to clarify things for this article). Furtney, David. 2013. Craig Reardon on the film’s makeups. Poltergeist: American cultural landscape. In UFOs, Chemtrails, and Aliens, Draizin took his story to the mainstream on Hollywood Ghost The Fan Site. Available online at http://www.poltergeist.poltergeistiii. Donald R. Prothero and Timothy D. Callahan explore why Stories, a 1998 AMC TV special hosted by William Shatner. com/reardon.html. George, Jerome, Sam Rubin, and Michael Glynn. 1988. The Poltergeist such demonstrably false beliefs thrive despite decades of Shatner described the screenplay as “a screenplay that’s to die curse: Child star Heather O’Rourke’s death is the latest tragedy to education and scienti c debunking. for” before relating a legend claiming that John Belushi was haunt horror movie series. The National Enquirer (February 23). considering the project during his final days. Yet Bob Wood- Janet Halland. 1985. The death touch. Black Belt 23(6) ( June). ward’s Wired: The Fast Times and Short Life of John Belushi, Kermode, Mark. 1998. Lucifer rising. Sight and Sound ( July). Lippman, John. 1999. “Confederacy of Dunces” adaptation remains mired which details the actor’s last days in labored detail, makes no in rewrites and handovers. The Wall Street Journal (September 30). mention of the project. At the time of his death, Belushi was Newman, Howard. 1974. The Exorcist: The Strange Story Behind the Film. ALSO BY DONALD PROTHERO hellbent on pushing a romantic comedy called Noble Rot, even Pinnacle Books, Inc. Reality Check: How Science as studio honchos wanted him to take the low road and do a Rob, G., 2009. Icons of Fright, Fright Exclusive Interview: Oliver Robins! Available online at http://iconsoffright.com/news/2009/02/fright_ Deniers Threaten Our Future comedy called Joy of Sex. Atuk doesn’t appear to have been a exclusive_interview_oli.html. serious contender for the actor’s attention, if indeed he even Shrieking comic Sam Kinison sued for $5.6 million by United Artists. “Strongly recommended for read it. 1988. Associated Press (February 26). popular-science readers who Similarly, an unfilmed adaptation of John Kennedy Toole’s want better to be able to explain Brett Taylor is a writer whose work has appeared A Confederacy of Dunces is the subject of occasional arcane and defend science and scienti c speculation due to the deaths of actors who were at one time in film and literary journals such as The South Carolina Review and Filmfax. methods to others.” connected with it, however briefly. Once again, John Belushi —Library Journal is the original victim of this curse, followed by the likes of Available wherever books are sold! John Candy, Divine, and yes, Chris Farley (Lippman 1999). At least in this case, Belushi’s involvement was confirmed by iupress.indiana.edu 50 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer ADVERTISEMENT “With their book’s brisk pace and energetic writing, Prothero and Callahan o er entertainment as well as wisdom for everyone who’s ever wondered what’s behind so many conspiracy theories and paranormal phenomena.” —Publishers Weekly (Starred Review)

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Skeptical Inquirer November/December 2017 51 | iupress.indiana.edu Before Carl Sagan and Neil deGrasse Tyson, There Was Dan Q. Posin Pioneer physicist and science popularizer Dan Q. Posin saw the power of television for education and inspiration. Almost lost to history, his story has new relevance today.

STUART VYSE

I am a product of that Cold War era. In the late 1950s, I my age. Back then, Watch Mr. Wizard was also on the air, was a young boy living in a suburb of Chicago. At school I and I have some memories of that show. But it was Posin’s practiced civil defense duck-and-cover drills in preparation programs and books that fueled my curiosity about space and for a nuclear attack, and at home I learned to use a soldering science. iron so that I could assemble a Heathkit shortwave radio. Sadly, Posin’s story is largely lost to history, and it was not I taped newspaper clippings about satellites and rockets to until many years later, when I began to research his life, that the wall above my bed, and my parents bought me a home I discovered Posin was much more than the happy science planetarium that projected the constellations onto the ceiling teacher I saw on the screen. of my room. I also became a devoted fan of a DePaul University phys- Difficult Beginnings ics professor, Dan Q. Posin. Perched in front of our tiny black-and-white television, I watched this elfin mustachioed Daniel Posin was born in 1909 in Russian Turkestan on the man prance around a barren television studio, telling fasci- Caspian Sea, and in 1914 his parents fled in advance of the nating stories about atoms, comets, Russian Revolution. Unlike other galaxies, and space travel. Long be- areas of the Russian Empire, Jews fore the era of computer graphics, of western Turkestan were allowed Posin used his considerable skills as to own property and live relatively a sketch artist to illustrate his pro- comfortably, but with the com- grams, and he made effective use ing of the revolution, the future of props and posters. His daughter must have looked uncertain. As Kathryn accurately described his a result, the Posin family under- manner as a cross between Groucho took a harrowing three-year trip Marx and Albert Einstein, and he across Asia, finally arriving in San was frequently accompanied on set Francisco in the bottom of a cattle by his cat Minerva, named after the ship. Having a knack for languages, Roman goddess of wisdom. Posin Daniel quickly learned English and was the writer and star of several began to excel in school. He won educational television series, includ- a scholarship to the University of ing Out of This World, The Universe California at Berkeley, where he Around Us, and Dr. Posin’s Giants, graduated Phi Beta Kappa and and his shows aired both nationally went on to get a PhD in physics in on the CBS television network and locally on WTTW, the 1935. By then, his father, who worked as a janitor, had died Chicago public television affiliate. He wrote popular books of tuberculosis, and Posin had stolen the heart of Frances to accompany his television shows, and I owned several of “Patsy” Schweitzer, a graduate student in English who was them. I still do. dating a friend at the time. Daniel and Patsy’s marriage Long before Carl Sagan, Neil deGrasse Tyson, or Brian would last sixty-eight years until her death in 2002. Cox, Dan Q. Posin was a very energetic popularizer of sci- After graduation, Posin worked as a teaching assistant ence who saw the power of television for education and inspi- at Berkeley for two years, and then—after teaching himself ration. He played an important role in developing my interest Spanish in just two weeks—he accepted a position at the in science, and he was a beloved figure for many other people University of Panama, where he taught physics and wrote

52 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer textbooks in Spanish.1 From there he had short teaching as- experience. This episode occurred during a tense Cold War signments at Montana State University and the Montana period, just after the peak of McCarthyism. A year earlier, School of Mining. By then it was 1944 and World War II thirty-six days of the Army-McCarthy hearings had been was well underway. As a result, Daniel, Patsy, and their two broadcast live on national television with an estimated eighty children went off to Massachusetts where Posin took a re- million people watching. During those hearings, Senator Jo- search position at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology seph McCarthy made the following statement: doing research on radar systems. The thing the American people can do is to be vigilant day and night to make sure they don’t have communists teaching the North Dakota: A Beginning and an Ending sons and daughters of America. Now, I realize that the minute anyone tries to get a communist out of a college, out of a uni- After MIT, Posin took his first substantial teaching posi- versity, there will be raised the phony cry that you’re interfering tion at North Dakota Agricultural College (NDAC) (now with academic freedom. I would like to emphasize that there is North Dakota State University), where he would stay for no academic freedom where a communist is concerned. nine years. While he was at NDAC, two important events happened: he started his television career, and he got fired. President Hultz took advantage of the nation’s anti- Posin’s broadcast debut came on June 1, 1953, when he communist fervor in his attacks on the four dissenting pro- appeared as Fargo, North Dakota’s, first television weather fessors. He pointed out that two of the men were Canadians forecaster, “Dr. Dan the Weather Man.” The studio of who had not applied for U.S. citizenship, and he singled out WDAY-TV was built in a converted two-car garage, and Posin in particular, suggesting he was a subversive due to his when mice got into the transmitter, the station manager got Russian heritage. The president insinuated that the profes- a cat. In a move he would repeat on subsequent television sors were anti-American, and an anonymous telephone cam- shows, Posin tucked the cat under his coat so the two could paign spread the message to “Get rid of the four communist appear together during the weather segment. His live broad- professors at NDAC.” casts were done in front of a chalkboard weather map, and WDAY-TV colleagues remembered the popular weather- I Have Been to the Village man’s humorous and dramatic on-camera style. Daniel Posin was not a communist, but, as the episode in At NDAC, Posin was professor and chair of the phys- North Dakota suggests, he was a humanitarian and a man ics department, and, for many years, all was well. But in who was not afraid to speak up when he witnessed injustice. 1954, the president of the college, Fredric Hultz, unilater- In August of 1945, while Posin was working as a researcher ally eliminated the geology department, setting off a chain at MIT, the United States dropped atomic bombs on the of events that would become the state’s biggest news story. Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and like many Posin was one of four professors who criticized President nuclear physicists of his era, Posin felt a special sense of Hultz’s actions, arguing that the president had violated ten- responsibility about the uses of atomic power. During the ure and that the termination had come too late in the ac- following summer, Albert Einstein wrote an appeal to sci- ademic year for the dismissed geology professors to obtain entists in the New York Times Sunday Magazine. Posin was other employment. In response, Hultz turned on the four particularly struck by this passage: outspoken professors, criticizing some of the articles they had published, which the professors pointed out was a violation Our representatives in New York, in Paris, or in Moscow of their academic freedom. The conflict grew, and at a par- depend ultimately on decisions made in the village square. To the village square we must carry the facts of atomic ticularly emotional meeting, Hultz rose and read a long pre- 2 energy. From the village square must come America’s voice. pared statement—later referred to as the “The Blast”—which stunned the assembled faculty members. When the president Einstein felt an especially strong moral obligation with had finished speaking, Posin rose and said, “Did you call me respect to the bomb. His scientific work many years earlier vicious?” To which Hultz replied, “You got ears.” had foreshadowed the prospect of enormous atomic power, The controversy came to the attention of the State Board and his actions led directly to America’s construction of an of Higher Education in late 1954, and early the next year atomic bomb. In August of 1939, Einstein wrote a letter the Board requested the immediate resignation of the four warning President Franklin Roosevelt that recent scientific professors. Posin and the others refused to resign, and, soon advances had raised the possibility of using uranium to cre- after, President Hultz declared the four had “engaged in a ate a new, devastatingly powerful weapon. Knowing that course of conduct deliberately intended to interfere with, un- Nazi Germany was engaged in uranium research, Einstein dermine, frustrate, and render ineffective the administration urged Roosevelt to support an expanded atomic research of the Agricultural College.” The professors were dismissed, program in the United States. Roosevelt was moved by the subject to public hearings conducted in May of 1955. In the letter, which ultimately led to the Manhattan Project and end, the State Board of Higher Education voted five-to-two the creation of an atomic weapon. Later, when it became to fire the professors. The four appealed to the State Su- clear that the German program had failed, Einstein felt a preme Court, but the court did not take up the case. sense of regret about writing to Roosevelt—regret that was I found no evidence that Posin ever spoke publicly about greatly amplified when the United States dropped two nu- the NDAC controversy, but it must have been a very difficult clear devices on Japan. He was a life-long pacifist, and he

Skeptical Inquirer November/December 2017 53 felt his only justification for writing Roosevelt had been the He spoke to groups throughout the United States, as well as fear that Germany would be successful in building an atomic in Canada, England, and France. weapon. As a result, following the war, Einstein helped form the Emergency Committee of Atomic Scientists (ECAS), Success in Chicago whose goal was the containment of nuclear power through a system of world government. After his dismissal in North Dakota, Posin was hired as By the time he read the passage above, Posin had arrived a professor of physics at DePaul University in Chicago, a at North Dakota Agricultural College, and he realized there post he would hold for eleven years. It was in Chicago that was an important role he could play. He was in complete he achieved his greatest success as a public intellectual and agreement with Einstein and the goals of the ECAS, and educator. as a talented science communicator, he was in an excellent The Posin family arrived in Chicago in 1956, and by Feb- position to take the message of peace to the village square. ruary of 1958, he was a local celebrity with a profile in News- week magazine and his face plastered on the sides of Chicago Transit Authority buses. An April 1958 article in the Chicago Sun-Times newspaper identified Posin’s show The Universe The Posin family arrived in Around Us as an important ingredient in the financial success of WTTW, the local public television station. One of Chicago in 1956, and by the many fan letters he received was from a ten-year-old girl who had saved a dollar from her quarter-a-week allowance to February of 1958, he was send to Posin: “I hope this will help keep your program on the a local celebrity. air.” While in Chicago, Posin would win six Emmy awards for educational programming. In addition to teaching at DePaul and starring on television, Posin ran a lecture series for high school and junior Starting in October of 1946, Posin went out on the road. high school students at Chicago’s popular Museum of Science He developed a speech on the two uses of atomic energy: and Industry and held training sessions for teachers of high peaceful and destructive. The life of Marie Curie, whose school science. He wrote articles for local and national news- discoveries led to the development of life-saving medical papers and magazines, and he pioneered distance education by treatments, was an important part of the peaceful side of teaching an early televised course at DePaul. Also, during the the story, but he also covered the destructive power of the Chicago years, Posin wrote several of his best-known science atom bomb and the dangers of radiation poisoning. Like books, including Dr. Posin’s Giants and Life Beyond Our Planet. Einstein, Posin argued that a system of world government It is hard to imagine how he did all this and still held down a (“a supra-national political organization”) was necessary to job and maintained his family life, but somehow he did. contain nuclear weapons and ensure peace. He ended his talks with an appeal for donations to the ECAS. Back to California Between 1946 and 1948, Posin gave his “atomic talk” two By 1967, both Posin’s son, Dan Q. Posin Jr., and his daugh- hundred times throughout the country. He spoke in com- ter, Kathryn, were grown, and he took a position in the munity halls, at parent teacher association meetings, and in physics department at San Francisco State University. For public parks. After hearing him speak, people of very mod- Posin this was a return to his beginnings as a young boy in est means contributed money, which Posin sent off to the San Francisco and a college student at UC Berkeley. It was ECAS. His audiences encouraged him to give the talk as also the place where he and Patsy met. often as possible, and people volunteered to organize repeat In 1968, Posin worked with KQED television making performances. Posin described his experiences in his 1948 a series of half-hour television programs called Science in book, I Have Been to the Village, for which Einstein wrote an the Age of Space that were designed to augment the sixth- introduction: grade science program in the California schools. In 1970, Dr. D. Q. Posin’s book bears eloquent witness to the sin- he achieved a breakthrough when he produced a series of cere and self-sacrificing way in which the best among the five programs broadcast for the first time in color over the scientists try to fulfill their duty towards the community. National Educational Television network. The topic of the This sense of duty is simply due to the fact that, as a result programs was the possibility of life in other solar systems, of their profession, scientists are acutely conscious of the and they featured performances by his daughter, Kathryn, perilous position in which all of mankind has been placed who was by then a professional modern dancer. Kathryn’s by the new means of mass-destruction. role on the show was described as “illustrating space events In his attack on the dissenting professors, NDAC pres- and findings.” ident Fredric Hultz urged Posin to stop giving his talks, In California, Posin’s life would once again bump up suggesting that they were anti-American. Once again, Posin against the tide of history, as he returned to humanitarian ignored Hultz. Ultimately, Posin would give his atomic en- causes. By coincidence, Posin arrived in San Francisco during ergy talk over three thousand times between 1946 and 1995. the Summer of Love. It was the height of sixties countercul-

54 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer ture revolution, and pictures of the physics professor from which is in the same building where the artist Chuck Close that era show a man—still sporting his trademark mus- has his studio. tache—but now framed by a longer salt-and-pepper page- Kathryn was effusive about her father. She referred to him as boy cut. He continued to give his talks on atomic energy for “Papa,” and she was obviously pleased that I was taking interest another thirty years, and in March of 1969 he organized a in his career. She kept his Emmy awards on display and had “Day of Concern” at San Francisco State University (SFSU) held on to old tapes of his programs and other memorabilia. to express “care over national policy of using scientific knowl- She said he was a wonderful parent—as was her mother—and edge in weaponry and space projects.” In 1973, as the Viet- he had been very proud of her as a dancer. She had many fond nam War dragged on, Posin founded “Professors for Peace,” memories of appearing on his television programs. a group aimed at ending the war in southeast Asia and war Kathryn told me a story about the Posin family driving in general. “If there is definitely injustice, wars are sometimes from Fargo, North Dakota, to Princeton, New Jersey, to necessary,” he said in a newspaper interview. “But we still meet Albert Einstein. Over the years, Einstein and Posin have to work towards building non-violent alternatives.” would become friends, united by their work for peace and Finally, he brought his two primary causes together in a against nuclear war, but this was their first face-to-face meet- popular course at SFSU called “Science and Human Values.” ing. The eminent scientist had written an introduction to In 1974, the class organized an effort to send 250 boxes of Posin’s book, and the Posins traveled east to thank him in food and clothing to the victims of a hurricane in Honduras. person. When they finally arrived, Einstein was sailing with I found this online comment from a former student: his daughter, and the Posins waited outside for him to return. Dr. Posin was one of my professors at San Francisco State Kathryn was just six years old, and this was the first time she University. I still read his books, 30 years later, and have very had ever seen her father nervous. vivid images of him lecturing. As a graduate student I got to Recently Kathryn had been practicing dance in the base- build some of the RF and electronic devices that were utilized ment of the Posin’s home in Fargo, where her father stored by other students performing research under Dr. Posin in many a number of extra copies of his book on the Russian chemist diverse areas, from plant biology to magnetocardiography. Then Dmitri Mendeleev, the inventor of the periodic table of ele- it all came together in his class “Science and Human Values.” ments. A picture of the rather hairy-looking Mendeleev ap- What an amazing man! I feel fortunate to have known him. peared on the cover of the book, and when the bushy-headed Posin would not retire from teaching until 1996, at which Einstein finally appeared, Kathryn ran toward him with arms point he was eighty-seven. While at SFSU, he won the James outstretched shouting, “Mendeleev! Mendeleev!” T. Grady Award of the American Chemical Society for “in- Kathryn remembered that Einstein laughed graciously terpreting chemistry for the public” and was nominated for the at her mistake, but somehow she became aware that she had Nobel Peace Prize six times. embarrassed her father, prompting her to run away and hide After Posin retired from SFSU, he and Patsy moved to a under a nearby car. She still remembered the smell of gasoline. house next door to their son and his family in New Orleans. Eventually the group recovered from this dramatic start, and By that time, Dan Jr. was a law professor at Tulane University they had a very pleasant visit. and the father of three. In a profile of Dan Sr. that appeared in I would love to know what the two men talked about on the New Orleans Times-Picayune he said, “We’re here because that day. They were both scientists but with very different tal- it’s about time we got to know our grandchildren.” ents. Two immigrants to the United States from different parts Patsy was raised as a Methodist, but as an adult she ad- of the world, both with lives that were touched by history. opted the Bahá’í faith. Posin had always been resolutely But two men who, nonetheless, shared very similar goals. As nonreligious. Kathryn remembered having no religious much as Posin might have been in awe of Einstein, I like to think that Einstein, in his own way, might have been equally background at all and going to a synagogue for the first time n when a friend dragged her to one when she was a teenager admiring of Posin. in Chicago. At the end of his life, Posin began to show the Notes signs of a late-onset dementia, and Kathryn said her father 1. Posin donated the royalties from his Spanish textbooks to a scholar- became more open to his wife’s faith saying, “I want to go ship program at the University of Panama. 2. This article was evidently reprinted in a pamphlet that was sent out to where she’s going.” many scientists. Posin reported reading this passage in the pamphlet rather Patsy would die in 2002, and Daniel Q. Posin died less than the New York Times article. than a year later at the age of ninety-three. Stuart Vyse is a psychologist and author of Believing in Magic: The Psychology of Superstition, which won Meeting Einstein the William James Book Award of the American Psy- When I began to research Posin’s life, I looked for his chil- chological Association. He is also author of Going dren and learned that Dan Q. Posin Jr. had died in 2006 but Broke: Why Americans Can’t Hold on to Their Money. that Kathryn Posin was still alive and still dancing. Kathryn As an expert on irrational behavior, he is frequently is a choreographer and director of Kathryn Posin Dance, a quoted in the press and has made appearances on well-known company in New York. She also teaches dance CNN International, the PBS NewsHour, and NPR’s Science Friday. He is a fellow of the Committee for and choreography at New York University. A few years Skeptical Inquiry. He can be found on Twitter @stuartvyse. ago, I spent a very enjoyable afternoon in her NoHo studio,

Skeptical Inquirer November/December 2017 55 [REVIEWS

Truth to Power on Climate KENDRICK FRAZIER

leven years after his much-discussed Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power. documentary on climate change, An Starring Al Gore. John Shenk and Bonni Cohen, directors. EInconvenient Truth, Al Gore returns Documentary. Actual Films/Participant Media, with his follow-up, Inconvenient Sequel, 2017. 1 hour 40 minutes. released in theaters nationwide this past August. In this film, Gore devotes less time to educating us all on the science that demonstrates the reality of a warming world, on the valid assumption, I’d think, that anyone who cares about the evidence clearly knows that already. There are some good summaries of the scientific evidence, but Sequel ’s empha- On a 120-plus-degree day in India, sis is on the effects of global warming, Sequel’s emphasis is a woman’s sandals stick to the melting already happening around the world, on the effects of global asphalt, and she falls. As was long ago and the politics, diplomacy, and moral predicted scientifically, a warming world power of efforts to mitigate it. warming, already leads to more frequent and much more Right-wing critics of climate science intense heatwaves, storms, and rainfall, have always gone into a frenzy at any happening around the and, in dry areas, more severe droughts. mention of Al Gore, trying their best to world, and the politics, Sequel ’s dramatic footage of the devas- vilify him and his work. And they are tation from a powerful typhoon in the attempting to do the same with this film. diplomacy, and moral Philippines, and other recent natural di- But make no mistake about it: Gore was sasters, is evocative. Syria’s current civil perhaps the most scientifically informed power of efforts to strife was preceded by its worst drought vice president in U.S. history. His inter- mitigate it. in 900 years—another sign of how cli- est in and knowledge of climate issues mate change affects world history. is legitimate and serious and goes back The film is built partially around four decades. He does his research. He is shown resting on the ice cap surface a Gore’s talks before groups of hundreds respects science. year earlier; now the ice beneath it has of climate science trainees he has helped In An Inconvenient Truth, Gore disappeared to such an extent that the organize all over the world. Some of worked closely with leading climate station stands high in the air on its foun- these are already leaders in climate mit- scientists, and it was firmly anchored dational stilts. Where is all that melt- igation efforts. in the science. Beyond that, Gore found water going? A quick segue to Miami Gore’s experience in climate diplo- powerful ways to illustrate both the lat- Beach, its ocean-side streets flooding macy is shown in the film in his de- est scientific data and the effects. Sequel under high tides. Coastal cities such as termined effort before the 2015 Paris does so as well, returning to the Green- Miami are at great risk (in Miami Beach climate accords to get India to change land ice cap to show us rushing rivers of efforts are underway, at considerable its plans to build hundreds of coal-fired meltwater plunging into huge holes in cost, to raise that thoroughfare just one power plants. Gore learns that the ob- the ice where it descends to lubricate the foot higher, a stopgap measure at best), stacle India faces in going more solar is ice’s flow to the coast. Time-lapse im- and populous third world cities that can financial. He works to arrange access to ages show vast realms of the ice crum- least afford to protect themselves are both World Bank credit and to Ameri- bling before our eyes. A research station next most at risk. ca’s latest high-tech solar technology at

56 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer affordable costs; this is where a skilled nential growth in installed solar capac- Gore himself breaks out of his nor- politician can get things done in ways ity. He lists countries that have, at least mally measured demeanor at times to Truth to Power on Climate that scientists can only imagine. for periods of days, gone 100 percent passionately argue for doing what is KENDRICK FRAZIER The film is not perfect. There’s a lot alternative energy. Even some scattered right. When our grandkids look back of Al Gore talking, and, for my taste, not cities in the United States have done so. at us, will they ask: What in the world enough of scientists. Yet it is effective In one powerful scene near the end were you thinking? Didn’t you see what in showing—sometimes in a visceral of the film, Gore goes to meet with the the scientists were telling us? Didn’t you way—what is already happening as the mayor of Georgetown, Texas, in, as see what nature was telling us? In that world warms. the mayor says, “the reddest county in sense, we see that climate change tran- Gore works very hard to not have the reddest state” in the country. The scends all borders, all politics, all eco- this movie be a downer. The United mayor himself says he is a conservative nomics, and even science. It is, in fact, a States may now be an outlier, a politi- Republican. Yet he has proudly led his moral issue.• cally backward nation in our current town headlong to 100 percent use of al- government’s stubborn resistance to ternative energy, using wind and solar science and to climate change. But the to supplant fossil fuels. The mayor says Kendrick Frazier is editor of the Skeptical rest of the world is going ahead without it is a responsibility he feels—that we Inquirer. A science journalist and former us. He is exuberant in the film showing should all feel—toward future genera- editor of Science News, he has followed cli- vividly how Chile is undergoing expo- tions. Wow! mate science for four decades.

The Martin Gardner Correspondence with Marcello Truzzi RAY WARD

artin Gardner (1914–2010) was Dear Martin, Dear Marcello: Gardner and Truzzi on Skepticism. a famous writer and philosopher Edited by Dana Richards. World Scientific, Singapore, 2017. Mof science, and Marcello Truzzi ISBNs: 9789813203693 hardcover, 9789813203709 soft- (1935–2004) was trained in sociology. cover. 458pp. Hardcover, $88; softcover, $48. Both had backgrounds in magic, giving them intimate knowledge of how people can be tricked and believe things unsupported by evidence. Both were founders of the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal (CSICOP) in 1976, as CSICOP’s debunking stance, which or carrying out field studies; as Gard- but Truzzi soon left and founded his he considered to be in breach of its ner himself says in one of his letters, own journal, The Zetetic Scholar (not declared position of not dismissing it had no lab. Gardner also opposed to be confused with The Zetetic, which anything without full evaluation. “believers” in the paranormal becom- became the Skeptical Inquirer). As editor Dana Richards sums up ing CSICOP members (as opposed to Much of their correspondence, col- neatly in his introduction, Truzzi con- subscribers). He specifically mentions lected and published for the first time tended that Gardner and CSICOP acted Harold Puthoff, of whom the intro- in Dear Martin, Dear Marcello, is about like lawyers, more interested in winning duction nicely says that he and Russell Gardner’s disapproval of what Truzzi a case than abiding by science’s rules of Targ imagined they could do research published, which he thought conferred conduct. But, as he also says, CSICOP in parapsychology but instead dealt with too much respectability to nonsense, was never intended to be a scientific “psychics” who were cleverer than they while Truzzi criticized what he saw organization, performing experiments were.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2017 57 The book has four sections of greatly film) and Jule Eisenbud (who fell for his faking psychic powers do in fact have varying length: “The Road to CSICOP,” tricks and wrote a whole book about such powers and are lying when they “The Demarcation Problem” (by far the him) are also discussed, with Gardner deny it, referring to the famous case longest), “The Dissolution,” and “Re making an interesting comparison with of Arthur Conan Doyle insisting that turn to Cordiality.” Arthur Conan Doyle and the Cottingley Houdini had such powers. I was re All the early letters are from Gard fairies: both intelligent men taken in by minded of those who similarly said that ner, Truzzi’s having apparently not rather crude deception, and both abso Mike Edwards and Steve Shaw, the per been preserved. There is much about lutely unable to alter their opinion in petrators of James Randi’s Project Alpha Uri Geller (and professional magicians’ the face of mountainous evidence. who completely fooled the investigators astonishment at the obviousness and Gardner is vehement about both at the McDonnell Laboratory, were also crudity of some of his tricks), propos neo-astrologer Michel Gauquelin and lying when they denied having paranor als for the body that became CSICOP, Immanuel Velikovsky, to whom Truzzi mal powers! and reputable publishers making a was more sympathetic. Gardner makes There is much discussion of the big thing of their integrity when deal the good point that taking Gauque definitions of charlatan and crackpot, ing with other subjects but bringing lin seriously meant his work would be and Truzzi mentions the sad case of the out the most appalling rubbish on the trumpeted as evidence for astrology, indubitably brilliant Linus Pauling’s ob when in fact Gauquelin was unequivo session with vitamin C. cal that it provided no evidence what A curious feature of the book is that soever for traditional astrology. Other postal addresses, phone numbers, etc., points Gardner makes that have become are replaced by “[[item] withheld].” The familiar in the skeptical field are that intention to protect privacy is no doubt One of Gardner’s scientists are bad at testing paranormal admirable, but somewhat pointless themes is that proposed claims (one proudly spoke of “20 years in many cases—publishers whose ad experience of designing electronic in dresses would be publicly available, for explanations for “para- struments”—to which Gardner’s com example, or Gardner’s phone number— ment was: “as though that qualified and it would save space if they were normal” phenomena are [him] for psi testing!”); that the pres replaced by “. . .” or, like a great deal of often ridiculously com- ence of a skeptical mind is conveniently other irrelevant matter, simply omitted. claimed to inhibit paranormal powers; At one point, Gardner and Truzzi plicated when they are and that even when claimants’ cheating apparently agreed to differ and stop is proved beyond all doubt it doesn’t arguing—but then continued! “We are in fact very simple. mean they always cheat: the mystic hopelessly of different mindsets—let’s influence comes and goes in an unpre stop trying to convert each other,” said dictable manner, it can’t be turned on Gardner. And, “How you can admire and off like a tap, and maybe they don’t a man who took Doyle’s fairy photos want to disappoint people. Gardner seriously is beyond me.” Things really gives an example of the appalling dan did get hostile, Truzzi calling Gardner gers of belief in the paranormal: a girl in “intellectually dishonest” and saying he paranormal. Gardner withdrew a book need of an operation who wanted to fly must conclude “the truth matters lit from the now-defunct Crowell-Collier to the Philippines and have it done by tle” to him. Eventually Gardner bluntly Publishing Company because they pub “psychic surgeons” there. asked Truzzi to stop writing to him; lished John G. Fuller’s Arigo, about the Truzzi, however, is similarly crit there were a few more contacts, a gap of Brazilian “psychic surgeon,” while An ical (sometimes very strongly so) of about a year, then the correspondence drija Puharich’s dreadful book Uri, say philosopher and CSICOP cofounder resumed quite cordially. ing Geller was controlled from an alien Paul Kurtz (“a devious scoundrel”) and Gardner comes off best. Truzzi was spacecraft, was actually published by no Philip Klass (both of whom I had the indubitably clever but guilty sometimes less prestigious a firm than Doubleday. pleasure of meeting and found very of what I call the “cart before the horse” One of Gardner’s themes is that pro pleasant). He does, however, make the approach: “We have a mystery; how can posed explanations for “paranormal” apposite comment that “The problem we solve it?” rather than “Is there really phenomena are often ridiculously com with most psi investigators ([John] Tay any mystery?” He suggested Gauquelin’s plicated when they are in fact very sim lor is the best example) is that they are “Mars effect” might have something ple—for example, the idea that Geller so arrogant that they believe they are to do with athletes’ and their parents’ surreptitiously applied some chemical too smart to be fooled.” He mentions body types and such people’s frequency for his cutlery-bending. Ted Serios (who investigators who are so certain they of sexual intercourse—an example of claimed to project thought images onto cannot be deceived that they say people Gardner’s point about over-compli

58 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer cated explanations! As Gardner says, it is far more likely that his raw data were Loch Ness Solved— inaccurate. The editing of this book is decidedly Even More Fully! poor, with many oddities of punctua- JOE NICKELL tion, wording, and spelling, and it is not clear whether they are in the originals (in which case this should be indicated) or are transcription errors; the index is almost The Loch Ness Mystery Reloaded. By Ronald useless: there are only two references to Binns. Zoilus Press, London, UK, 2017. ISBN Gauquelin (one misspelt “Gauguelin”), 9781999735906. 222 pp. Paperback, £12. who is actually mentioned in hundreds of letters, two each to Klass, Carl Sagan, and Targ, and three each to Velikovsky, Geller, Puthoff, and Kurtz, all of whom are also in fact mentioned many times.

The book is a treasure- ith his new book, The Loch He does not consider Reloaded a trove of apposite Ness Mystery Reloaded, Ronald sequel to Solved. Emphasizing that his WBinns takes another bow as “view of the monster has not changed comments on many the man who cast the net and drew since 1983” (p. vi), he has produced up from the depths the ultimate truth neither a rewrite nor a sequel. Instead, well-known people and about the fabled creature, Nessie. he has absorbed the new information claimed phenomena. Binns is himself a distinctive crea- that has come to light—for example, ture: He began as a believer—once that the famous 1934 image of Nessie a member of the Loch Ness Phe- known as “the surgeon’s photograph” nomena Investigation Bureau—but was a hoax using a small model—and evolved into the author of what I have so has updated and added to the clas- called the definitive, skeptical book on sic cases. the subject. Of course he can say “I told you In that book, The Loch Ness Mys- so” in the 1934 case since he had an- The book is a treasure-trove of appo- tery Solved (1983), Binns did what no ticipated the solution—even having site comments on many well-known peo- one had troubled to do in the previ- produced his own fake photo using a ple and claimed phenomena, and it is a ous half-century of monster history: model of about the same size. “This pity that they will so often be untraceable He pored over the 1933 files of the turns out to have been an amazingly because of the poor indexing. It is also Inverness Courier and illuminated the percipient piece of guesswork,” writes brave to publish very blunt remarks about earliest sightings of that monster-in- Binns (66), but I think of it as real de- people such as Geller and von Däniken augurating year. His search revealed tective work by one with an excellent eye and judgment. (“an outright charlatan”) who are still not only “that there had always been In Reloaded, Binns analyzes at alive. This is an indubitably valuable book, a local skeptic counter narrative” but also that there had been no sightings length—and deconstructs—the clas- but its value could have been greatly en- for the previous half century. More- sic Nessie sightings. In doing so, he hanced by better editing and indexing. • over, one Alex Campbell had been frequently refers to what Rupert T. responsible for virtually inventing Gould (in his The Loch Ness Monster and Others, 1976, 112–113) called Ray Ward is retired and lives in London after the monster—the first to publicize it, continuously hype it, and, eventu- “expectant attention”—that is, the a career in library work. He has a BA in pol- ally, claim to have been an eyewitness tendency of people to be misled by itics and a long-term interest in paranormal on no fewer than eighteen occasions their own expectations. Binns insists claims. He has reviewed books in the field for (Binns 2017, pp. 10–11, 36–37). But (repeating it nearly verbatim later), British skeptic publications. Binns was only getting started. Continued on p.62 Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2017 59 60 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer Skeptical Inquirer November/December 2017 61 Continued from p.59 phenomena there were also outright ished. Continuing the great Nessie hunt was an exercise in futility. There that “the sincerity of eye-witnesses is hoaxes—notably fauxtographic ones. That is not to say that the identification is no species of large unknown ani- very rarely in doubt” (28, 136) and that mal in the Loch but the possibility they are unshakeable in their conviction in every case is conclusive—far from that there just might be continues to as to what they have seen—however it—but, invariably, competing hypothe- enthrall a small number for whom ses are all more credible than the notion eye-witness evidence outweighs all mistaken that may be. For instance, he of a large, hitherto unknown creature. other considerations. also wisely calls attention to the issue He not only looks at the individual of brevity, stating, “It’s questionable What Lawrence David Kusche did sightings but at the entire Loch Ness for the Bermuda Triangle in 1975, Ron- whether a momentary sighting really phenomenon itself—which he regards allows an objective assessment of size ald Binns did for the Loch Ness mon- not as a hoax (as some have done) but ster in 1983: He solved the “mystery.” and shape” of something seen (126). as a myth in the true sense of the term Then there is “the problem of transmis- And with his thoroughgoing new book, (202). With his 1983 book, he had re- The Loch Ness Mystery Reloaded, it stands sion: who is telling the story and how alized how appropriate was the word even more fully solved. It is a myth out are they telling it?” (124–125). These are Solved. Now he says (15): of water, left flopping on a beach of the valuable observations from one who has The story has continued but the imagining, gulping air. • investigated so many cases. songs remain the same. At heart the Left in Binns’s wake (so to speak) is Loch Ness monster is a sociologi- “not one phenomenon but a wide vari- cal, not a zoological phenomenon. Joe Nickell, PhD, is a skeptical cryptozool- Others have reiterated and refined ety, especially boats’ wakes, birds and ot- ogist and author or coauthor of books on my case against the monster, but the the subject. He has himself investigated at ters” (13) as he had determined in 1983. reality was that after 1983 the search In addition to a great variety of such for a Loch Ness Monster was fin- Loch Ness.

[LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Randi on Facilitated Communication | Murder by Darkness | Unintended Consequences | Protests for Science | Risk are employed by any school in image. This is especially imag- Philip Senter replies to MacNeill: receipt of state funding ought to inable if the legend began when Where there’s smoke, there is indeed the Magazine for Science and Reason Vol. 41 No. 4 | July/August 2017 be a source of national shame. Of people were not even sure what fire. The drakon/draco spat venom course it isn’t hard to believe such fire was. in several saint-versus-“dragon” sto- propositions are held by the same Numerous members of dif- ries from late antiquity, a period people who claim Earth is 6,000 ferent animal kingdoms produce when the term drakon/draco still years old. As Richard Dawkins a wide spectrum of dangerous meant a wingless and legless ser- points out in The God Delusion, chemicals, from snake and spider pent (as shown by classical iconog- “To get an idea of the scale of venom, toxic amphibian slime, raphy). By the early Middle Ages, this error, it is the equivalent to JonBenet and bee stings to skunk spray. Case Solved? venom-spitting had been replaced (Not by Psychics) believing that the distance from Joe Nickell One of my favorites is the green by fire-spitting in the stories. For The Missing411 New York to San Francisco is 7.8 Conspiracy: An Investigation INTRODUCTORY PRICE U.S. and Canada $5.99 heron, a medium-sized primi- specific examples, see Daniel Og- The Danger of yards.” Chromotherapy tive bird that has miraculously den’s book Dragons, Serpents, and Published by the Center for Inquiry in association with the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry I hope for their sake that the continued to exist, using regur- Slayers in the Classical and Early children learning about dragons gitation as a defense means. If a Christian Worlds: A Sourcebook. in biology are getting their infor- Fire-Breathing Dinosaurs? large mysterious creature in the Before then, the only fire-spit- mation on American geography misty past, possibly even a flying ting serpent was Leviathan from I enjoyed Philip J. Senter’s thor- from a very different source. one, sprayed a burning, corrosive the biblical book of Job. Various ough explanation of why claims Martin Stubbs fluid upon prey or predators, per- other non-serpent entities produced of fire-breathing dinosaurs are London, UK haps even a red mist, that could fire in ancient myths (e.g., the an- unrealistic (July/August 2017). be grounds for the present-day thropomorphic monster Humbaba The idea that such an article A thought on “Fire-Breathing dragon legend. of Mesopotamian mythology and should be necessary seemed al- Dinosaurs”: Phillip J. Senter well This critter does not seem to the goat head of the Chimaera of most comical (akin to Skeptical demolished the idea of any kind be around these days, and fossils Greek mythology), and a Babylo- Inquirer running a cover story of fire-breathing animal. But the do not well preserve soft tissue, nian cylinder seal depicts a quad- on “Why Reindeer Can’t Really legend of the beast spans several so if the evidence is obscured we ruped with flames arising from its Fly”) until I read that claims Eurasian cultures and seems to may not find any signs of it. The back. about fire-breathing dinosaurs have been around for ages. There adage that where there’s smoke, But given that today’s dragons can be traced back to the Greek and appear in some seventh-grade could have been some animal there’s fire is not always true but biology textbooks. The fact that Roman drakon/draco, whereas the that, as perceived by primitive often is. home-schooled pupils should people, appeared to breathe fire other fire-producing creatures are be using such textbooks is bad or whose description over vast Joan MacNeill not part of that lineage, it stands to enough, but the idea that they time has morphed into that Portland, Oregon reason that the origin of fire-spit-

62 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer ting in the European dragon is due kell’s article on the JonBenet case. of Michael Shermer’s book Why tary” and Mr. Nickell’s article is to the replacement of venom (which I agree with most things he says People Believe Weird Things) the downright heinous. feels like it burns) with fire (which but beg to differ on the killer. He “need for control, simplicity and It’s no surprise when a tawdry, actually burns) in the early saint only eliminates the parents be- certainty” as well as “overreliance anything-for-a-buck network airs versus serpent stories. Just as you cause he cannot come up with a on authorities” and the error of junk about him, but staid Skep- suspected, the inspiration for the reason why the parents would lie “representativeness.” tical Inquirer following suit is fire-spitting was a real thing: snake for each other. I find it very sim- Nickell misrepresents the ex- harder to believe than the latest venom. ple to explain why they would. If isting wide-ranging, pseudoscien- alien abduction claim. Patsy caught John abusing Jon- tific handwriting analyses of the Aghast. Benet (the scream that was heard ransom note by citing only the Ted Schaar The JonBenet Ramsey at 2 am) and in trying to hit him credentials and extremist conclu- over the head with a flashlight Brookfield, Wisconsin Murder Case sions of Gideon Epstein to deter- she hit JonBenet instead, they mine that the only viable murder First, a general “well done” would have to lie for each other. suspects are John, Patsy, and Joe Nickell replies: Patsy could not be revealed as the for an outstanding issue (July/ Burke. Citing his unsupported Good readers Evan Filby and killer nor John as the abuser. August 2017). I found Nickell’s belief that neither John nor Patsy Brenda Bright add to the discus- The one mistake I detected in “non-accusatory” hypothesis killed their daughter, Nickell is sion. I would remind the latter Mr. Nickell’s article is his assump- about the JonBenet Ramsey left with Burke as the only sus- that I did not eliminate the parents tion that JonBenet was killed murder especially interesting, pect out of six billion, then ex- solely on the question of why one in the basement. The body was although sensationalized crime trapolates wildly to sibling sex would lie for a guilty other. If Patsy clearly moved. She was placed is not generally my cup of tea play and accidental asphyxiation. accidentally struck JonBenet and in her favorite blanket (that had the child was not killed instantly (“JonBenet Murder Mystery Nickell summarily and un- been upstairs in the dryer near and to a certainty—as the evidence Solved? [Not by Psychics]”). fairly threw out the best evidence her room), showing the love the indicates—Patsy would surely have Nickell says in the article that (DNA) and most likely scenario killer had for her. She also then called 911. Also I argued there is “Cyril Wecht calls attention to (sadistic pedophile), arriving at had to be lifted downstairs and much stronger evidence against the little-discussed practice of an extremely unlikely conclusion placed in the most obscure part Burke as the killer. As to the base- auto-erotic asphyxiation [AEA]” without ever looking back. and goes on to frame JonBenet’s of the house by a strong adult. ment, it was indicated forensically, David Clark and the added blanket does not sug- death as (essentially) an AEA Brenda Bright episode gone bad. He mentions Garland, Texas gest the body had been elsewhere. Hillsboro, Oregon Interestingly (not mentioned in my terms like the “choking game” I hate to say it, but frankly I am article), Burke once angrily hit his and others used in the popular Joe Nickell’s article on the death disgusted that your fine magazine sister in the head with a golf club. media. I recently completed the of JonBenet Ramsey left quite would publish “JonBenet Case Such facts help us judge Mat- biography of pioneer criminolo- a bit to be desired. The major Solved?” The subject has nothing thew Cope’s assertion that I only gist Luke S. May (1892–1965). problem is that it took an awful to do with the mission except for repeated “widely known and In 1948, May handled a case lot of copy to repeat widely a passing mention of some goofy well-documented details in the that looked—in my view—like a known and well-documented psychic. case.” Not only is the devil in the classic AEA “accidental suicide,” details of the case to arrive at a It reviews the facts (which I details, but out of countless ones— where the choking game went vague conclusion that amounted regard as excellent), but mainly some little known to the general too far. Talk about “little dis- to: “I can’t prove it, but the facts it is a terrible, unpardonable, public and others disputed or er- cussed”! The death was heavily are not inconsistent with the couched-in-legalese accusation roneous—I selected and assembled covered in the press of the day, theoretical solution I have proof murder against Burke Ramsey. certain details to create what I and then absolutely dropped posed.” Furthermore, the article barely touched upon the remit I might be okay with this if the believe is the most likely scenario. from sight within a week after of SI. That the case attracted evidence were overwhelming but I did so using my experience in in- May joined the case with a call self-described psychics is neither it isn’t—not even close. It’s pure, vestigating homicides for police and for an exhumation. surprising nor new. So what is the specious conjecture. others, together with the training, I believe Nickell makes an reason for publishing a piece that I’ve followed this terrible case research, and experience I put into excellent case for his hypothesis. would seem to be a better fit for for years and for a long time be- authoring forensic textbooks. If a I am guided in that opinion by a true crime magazine? I might lieved the parents were guilty or reader will yet fail to understand, I a reference I found during my ask the same question about Mr. somehow culpable. However, fear he will never have a clue. research on the Luke May case. Nickell’s admittedly interesting, their disgust in hard-hitting in- Sadly, David Clark flails at me I offer it to readers who might highly readable piece on John terviews at being accused and with accusations of a “hatchet job” want to learn more about the Dillinger. railroaded seemed genuine to me but wounds himself terribly. For topic: Anny Sauvageau, Vernon finally. example, although he accuses me of J. Geberth, Autoerotic Deaths: Matthew Cope Westmount, Canada Burke Ramsey has had a illogic, he commits what I call the Practical Forensic and Investi- nightmarish existence since his you-didn’t-agree-with-me fallacy, gative Perspectives, CRC Press, In a recent hatchet job, author little sister was killed. That alone while being himself hopelessly given Boca Raton, Florida (2013). Ad- Joe Nickell used well-known log- was horrific and unforgettable. In to confirmation bias. I happen to dendum: AEA deaths have been ical fallacies as well as misrepre- addition, who can imagine what know he is linked to the notoriously documented at least as far back sentation of facts to paint himself it’s been like to have the world’s pro-Ramsey “Jameson”—actually as 1718. into a corner regarding the Jon- rapacious media after your fam- one Susan Bennett, a North Evan Filby Benet Ramsey homicide case. ily, not to forget the weight of the Carolina housewife who (according Idaho Falls, Idaho Nickell’s dismissal of the state? And then to be accused of to a Boulder newspaper) “had a DNA evidence contains the logi- being the murderer by a poorly vision while taking a shower two I read with great interest Joe Nic- cal fallacies (using the vocabulary reasoned, sensational “documen- days after the murder that the

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2017 63 [ LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Ramseys were innocent.” Without dents receive explicit instruction A note on methodology for those Gauquelin discovered a any background in law, forensics, in critical thinking. Indeed, most following up on the novel tech- nonexplained correlation of the or homicide investigation, she has students are formally introduced niques for teaching critical think- positions of the planet Mars in wasted police time on bogus tips, to critical thinking in their first- ing via the humanities: the birth sky with birth-times says the newspaper, such as one that year writing courses, which are I taught an advanced elec- of top categories of sport peo- a former Ramsey employee’s family run out of English, Rhetoric, or tive, “Parapsychology, a Critical ple. He claimed that there was “were part of a child pornography Communication Department Examination,” which was a very no such effect with less eminent operation.” Clark seems to accept writing programs. Freshman popular course, routinely fully sport people. The question was “Jameson” uncritically, when he writing is, as far as I can tell, enrolled; it was also a very dif- which criterion he used to select should instead fact-check her fact- the only class that is universally ficult one, which came as a sur- eminency. A similar test made checking. Contrary to him, it is not required of college students any- prise to many. On the first day, by CFEPP (published in 1996) I but real experts who question the more, and I think that there is a I would ask everyone to fill out showed remarkable differences DNA as likely contamination. good reason. Every rhetoric and a questionnaire about their atti- in selection criteria between this While Ted Schaar finds my writing textbook I have ever used tudes and beliefs toward things test and Gauquelin’s. The results review of the facts “excellent” he or seen introduces the basic ele- paranormal (telepathy, astrology, were reviewed by the well-known still asserts the Ramseys were “rail- ments and terminology of crit- cryptozoology, UFOs, prophetic Dutch skeptic (and CSI Fellow) roaded.” I believe I showed other- ical thinking, tools that allow dreams—the works). On the Jan Willem Nienhuys. He con- wise. I’m not worried about Burke students to isolate elements of final day, they filled the ques- cluded that Gauquelin’s selection (and I didn’t determine “murder”: arguments and draw conclusions tionnaire out once more. Invari- could have been influenced by his see my article’s final sentence). In about their likely validity. ably, there was a dramatic shift in own conviction. The presence of 2016, at age twenty-nine, he ap- Outside of writing programs, attitudes and beliefs toward the a Mars effect seemed for him to peared on Dr. Phil. Later that year you are lucky to see critical think- skeptical side. be an argument to determine the he also filed lawsuits against CBS ing being taught explicitly out- Then the fun part. I would “eminency” of champions. More- and a pathologist, asking a total of side of elective courses in philos- ask them to fill out the ques- over, Gauquelin seemed to have $900 million—an amount obvi- ophy. Even though from talking tionnaire again, this time as they fewer doubts about the accuracy ously intended to intimidate peo- to skeptics you could be excused recalled themselves believing on of birth data of a person when ple. Let us only be concerned with for thinking that everything you Day 1. The results, semester after Mars was in the good position. seeking the truth and obtaining needed to know about the hu- semester, were clear: they misre- The authors of Tests of As- justice for JonBenet. manities flowed from the pen of membered their earlier positions, trology show their sympathy for Finally, Cope and Schaar think Alan Sokal, the overwhelming thinking that they held more Gauquelin, but that is not a good crime science should be off limits to amount of scholarship in the hu- skeptical views than they actu- reason to trivialize objections SI, but for years we have expanded manities depends on the applica- ally did. It was as if they found it coming from (true) skeptics. beyond just the paranormal. In fact tion of reason to evidence, even difficult to grasp how uncritical Tim Trachet I began to combine the genres of in some areas that are more sub- their earlier beliefs were and mis- Brussels, Belgium true crime and paranormal claims jective, such as literary interpre- remembered them. in SI long ago. Juxtaposing them in I’d suggest something along tation. You have to justify your Risks, Real and Imagined the JonBenet case for comparison arguments with good evidence these lines for assessing the im- seemed to me—still seems—a good that you handle responsibly. pact of these novel methods for In his review of the book Get- idea. Anyway, I appreciate the open- McLaughlin and McGill’s teaching critical thinking. While ting Risk Right (July/August mindedness of our esteemed and study is of special interest of these data weren’t part of a formal 2017), Terence Hines’s analysis longsuffering editor, Ken Frazier. skeptics because it measured study, in retrospect I am sorry I of the Leslie et al. paper misses pseudoscientific beliefs. Critical never wrote them up for publica- an important point. The prob- thinking is a complex, variously tion—the technique might prove ability that 41 or more out of Humanities Teach defined phenomenon, and it goes generally useful. 148 tests would have odds-ratios Critical Thinking well beyond identifying extraor- Arthur S. Reber each of which is attainable with dinary claims and demanding ev- Point Roberts, Washington less than a 5 percent probabil- I was pleased to see the Skep- idence for them. It encompasses ity by chance is effectively zero. tical Inquirer cover a recent awareness of biases and logical Tests of Astrology Book The important point is that 11 paper by Anne McLaughlin of the 41 control tests also have fallacies, an ability to imagine the Missed on Gauquelin and Alicia McGill about critical motives of others, to assess exper- less than a 5 percent probability thinking in the context of the tise, and a host of other practices. I do not totally agree with Ivan by chance. The probability for humanities (News & Comment, How best to deliver (and mea- Kelly’s enthusiasm for Tests of this is about 0.000004. This low July/August 2017, p. 11). sure) success in teaching this suite Astrology (May/June 2017). This probability strongly suggests that I would go a step beyond of skills remains elusive. I suspect quite interesting book does not the members of the vaccinated Kendrick Frazier’s recommenda- and unvaccinated groups are not that studying the humanities, give a correct view concerning tion that “it is good for all of us equivalent. No conclusions can however, is part of the answer. critical research about Michel to recognize that science courses Gauquelin’s work. It denigrates be drawn about the effects of aren’t the only academic route Bob Blaskiewicz skeptical organizations who tried vaccination from this study. to teaching critical thinking and Assistant Professor of Critical to verify this work, such as the Multiple comparison studies resisting pseudoscientific ideas” Thinking and First-Year Belgian Comité Para, the former are useful for identifying risk fac- and say that the humanities are Studies French group CFEPP, and even tors for further study. They are and always have been the pri- Stockton University CSICOP (now CSI), who are not generally sufficient for proof mary academic area where stu- Galloway, New Jersey called “the true disbelievers”(!). of correlation, let alone cause.

64 Volume 41 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer The examples Hines pulls unaware of the questions being terests with the object of finding he begins to detect something from Kabat’s book suggest that asked of the subjects for whom a common way forward; the busi- following him and assumes it’s a Kabat has ignored context to dis- they were facilitating communi- ness of commerce and capitalism wild animal also trapped in the parage public perception of en- cation, the subjects were unable is to make money; the business cave. Lovecraft is famous now vironmental risks. For example, to answer them. As a result of of science is to collect data on the for finding alien creatures under Love Canal residents were relo- many such studies, the American physical world, produce theories every rock and pond, but in this cated two years after unusually Association on Mental Retar- from the data, and make pre- case it’s something different. Typ- heavy rains resulted in noticeably dation (which became in 2007 dictions based upon them. Any ical of Lovecraft, the final words contaminated ground water. The the American Association on contamination of science with are intended to shock the reader lack of statistically significant Intellectual and Developmental the first two of these activities so I won’t spoil the surprise by long-term ill effects is thus more Disabilities) announced that fa- threatens objectivity. revealing them here. likely due to low sample size and cilitated communication had no In principle, it is possible to a relatively prompt action than a basis in science, and the Ameri- separate scientific findings from Neal Wilgus lack of danger. Similarly, the dis- can Psychological Association, the political discussion of how Corrales, New Mexico cussion of “estrogen” equivalence American Speech-Hearing-Lan- society handles them, and it ignores questions of dose and up- guage Association, American would be prudent for the expert Academy of Pediatrics, American take, multiplicity of target recep- to avoid political discussion un- Academy of Child and Adoles- tors, differences in persistence, less data is requested. There is no cent Psychiatry, and American nonlinearity or reversal of effect reason scientists generally should Psychiatric Association made with dose, and a multitude of refrain from participating in the [FEEDBACK similar announcements (https:// other factors. political debate providing they en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Facili- claim no special privilege as sci- The letters column is a forum tated_communication). Robert Clear entists. on matters raised in previous It is appalling that nearly Berkeley, California If the conclusion of a sci- issues. Letters should be no thirty years after FC was discred- entific inquiry is well based, it longer than 225 words. Due ited as pseudoscience and fraud, Terence Hines replies: should be presented. The way in to the volume of letters we it is still being promoted by two I agree that the results of the Leslie which society deals with it is an- receive, not all can be pub- universities. There is, of course, et al. paper don’t reveal anything other matter. lished. Send letters as email increasing rejection and denial about vaccine effects. As to the Love text (not attachments) to of science in our society, which Reginald Milborrow Canal point, one can always argue [email protected]. In the sub- is encouraged by the president Gulfport, Mississippi that the observed period of time is ject line, provide your surname of the United States, and which too short to show deleterious effects. and informative identification, motivated the March for Science Mammoth Cave Mysteries Two years seems to me to be long e.g.: “Smith Letter on Jones in April. Wikipedia relates FC to enough if the contamination at Joe Nickell’s column about the evolution article.” Include your “alternative medicine” and the Love Canal was as horrible and ghost in Mammoth Cave (July/ name and address at the end “paranormal.” dangerous as it’s made out to be. August 2017) reminded me of of the letter. You may also mail And last but not least, of course Kenneth G. Crosby a couple of other spooky stories your letter to the editor to 944 there are multiple receptors, etc., re- Livingston, Texas about the region. One is the Deer Dr. NE, Albuquerque, NM garding estrogen effects. It’s always mostly forgotten novel Etidorhpa 87122. possible to say “you just didn’t study Don’t Threaten by John Uri Lloyd (1895), in the right factor” when confronted which an occult explorer is led by with a negative finding. Science’s Objectivity a mysterious creature on a search Some weeks ago, I listened on for Truth near the Mammoth CSpan to a description by an Cave “punch-bowls.” They enter Promotion of economist of his own book titled the cave near Echo River, which ‘FC’ Appalling (if I remember correctly) Whose is described as a miniature stream Side Are You On? In his book, where there are “others more Before my retirement in 1993, he showed that it was possible magnificent that flow majesti- much of my work as a psychol- to produce diametrically oppo- cally far, far beneath it.” From ogist was in mental retardation site conclusions from the same there, it’s a drop off story of the and other developmental disabil- financial data largely dependent Hollow Earth guaranteed to put ities, which include autism. I was upon the financial position of you to sleep. familiar with the promotion of the reader. If one adds to finan- The other Mammoth Cave facilitated communication (FC) cial considerations strong beliefs story that comes to mind is by Douglas Biklin and Anne (e.g., religion) and cultural envi- “The Beast in the Cave” by hor- Donnellan, mentioned by James ronment, the situation described ror story writer H.P. Lovecraft Randi in “The Farce Known as by Matthew Nisbet in his col- (1905). Written when Lovecraft ‘FC’” in the July/August 2017 SI. umn “The March for Science” was a teenager and not published I recall reading, however, before (July/August 2017) could well fit in his lifetime, this story tells of a retiring, the report of a study, into this framework. member of a tourist group visit- published in a peer-reviewed The complicated business of ing Mammoth Cave who leaves journal, conclusively demonstrat- politics is to negotiate agreements the party and gets lost. As he ing that when facilitators were between groups with different in- continues to wander in the dark,

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2017 65 cated explanations! As Gardner says, it is far more likely that his raw data were Loch Ness Solved— inaccurate. The editing of this book is decidedly Even More Fully! poor, with many oddities of punctua- JOE NICKELL tion, wording, and spelling, and it is not clear whether they are in the originals (in which case this should be indicated) or are transcription errors; the index is almost The Loch Ness Mystery Reloaded. By Ronald useless: there are only two references to Binns. Zoilus Press, London, UK, 2017. ISBN Gauquelin (one misspelt “Gauguelin”), 9781999735906. 222 pp. Paperback, £12. who is actually mentioned in hundreds of letters, two each to Klass, Carl Sagan, and Targ, and three each to Velikovsky, Geller, Puthoff, and Kurtz, all of whom are also in fact mentioned many times.

Everything Happens for THE Reason By Ian Harris

I am very excited to be writing for the Skeptical Inquirer. I have been a subscriber and fan for over twenty-five years. Being a “skeptic comedian”—or a stand-up comic who promotes skepticism in his act, turning my jokes and thoughts into humorous mini- essays—has always been a goal of mine. Perhaps one day I’ll even turn them into a book. While I love the idea of being responsible for my future, creating a path and sticking to it, and having things fall into place after years of working toward them (and even just the idea of plain old “happenstance”), I loathe when people chirp, “See, everything happens for a reason!” Living in California, I have plenty of New Age, unrelentingly “positive” people in my life, and that is great, but this idea assumes some sort of external pre-thought, some magical force, or predetermined outcome in life. Now, I understand cause and effect; like if I don’t apply the brakes, I will hit the car in front of me. But that is not what they mean by this. They mean it in some sort of grandiose “Someone is watching out for me” way. I have heard countless stories from friends, practically throwing their backs out bending over backward to find a hidden “reason” for something. Every story sounds like this: I lost my job, bro. Yeah, I woke up late the other day, because my alarm didn’t go off! Every day it goes off like clockwork or something, but this day . . . nothing! No reason; just didn’t go off. So then I couldn’t find my shoes. Finally found them in the bathtub! How’d they get in there? When I got home from the bar the night before they were on my feet, and I was still in my clothes, so I know I didn’t take a shower. . . . Anyway, I eventually get to my car and realized I left my keys in the house. So I had to break into my house to get my keys. I finally get to my car and on the freeway, and BOOM! A huge fifty-car pile up . . . twenty people dead. That’s when I realized if I had been on time, I would have been in the middle of that—and I’d be dead! Someone was looking out for me. So yeah, I lost my job, but I’m alive! Everything happens for a reason. Yeah because if I am a god and I don’t want you to die in a horrific car wreck—because the world can’t afford to lose another good Denny’s waiter—that’s what I am going to do: hide your keys to delay you for five minutes. As an all-loving, omnipotent god it would never occur to me that an easier way might be to just . . . oh I don’t know . . . not murder twenty people on the freeway that day! What about those people? Everything happens for a reason? Maybe twenty people died on the freeway today because you left your keys at home, you jerk! I actually love the idea of everything happening for a reason. I think it would be great if everything happened for the same reason. Then after sporting events we could hear speeches like: My first Super Bowl win! This is incredible. Before I go any further, I need to thank the man responsible for this win. That’s right . . . that unemployed waiter guy, Bodhi! Because if he hadn’t lost his keys that day, none of this would have been possible. And to our opponents: Hey I know it would have been better if Bodhi hadn’t lost his keys that day, but I know you guys will go home, work harder, and come back stronger next year. Just remember: everything happens for the reason. I can’t think of a way to end this piece—must have something to do with those damn lost keys.

Ian Harris is a Los Angeles–based skeptic and standup comic.

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