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The Impact of Democracy in Zimbabwe Assessing Political, Social and Economic Developments Since the Dawn of Democracy

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The Impact of Democracy in Zimbabwe Assessing Political, Social and Economic Developments Since the Dawn of Democracy The impact of democracy in Zimbabwe Assessing political, social and economic developments since the dawn of democracy John Makumbe University of Zimbabwe, Harare Zimbabwe Country Report Research Report 119 Research Report 119 The impact of democracy in Zimbabwe Assessing political, social and economic developments since the dawn of democracy John Makumbe University of Zimbabwe, Harare Centre for Policy Studies Johannesburg September 2009 This paper is funded by The Kellogg Foundation Accepted for publication, December 2008 Published September 2009 The Centre for Policy Studies is an independent research institution, incorporated as an association not for gain under Section 21 of the Companies Act. The Kellogg Foundation generously provided the funding for this research work. However, the views expressed in this report are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Kellogg Foundation. Centre for Policy Studies 1st Floor Maths Centre 28 Juta Street Braamfontin Johannesburg, South Africa P O Box 1933 Parklands 2121 Johannesburg, South Africa Tel (011) 403- 4001 Fax (011) 403- 4026 e-mail: [email protected] www.cps.org.za ISBN 978-1-920408-03-9 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 1 2. METHODOLOGY 3 3. MAJOR FINDINGS 3 3.1 Socio-economic changes 3 3.2 Collapse of the social sector 5 3.3 Political developments and repression 9 4. CONCLUSION 14 References 15 The impact of democracy on Zimbabwe 1 1. INTRODUCTION The Republic of Zimbabwe has an estimated population of 13 million people, with some three or more million of them residing in South Africa, Botswana, the United Kingdom and several other countries. The country is divided into eight administrative provinces, while the two major urban centres, Harare and Bulawayo, are also designated as provinces in their own right. Masvingo is the largest of the provinces in terms of the population, and is located in the southern region. This is where the world famous Great Zimbabwe is located. Also in the southern region are Matabeleland North and Matabeleland South, which share a border with Botswana to the west. Both of these provinces are sparsely populated since they are semi- arid areas. They are well known for cattle breeding activities. The Midlands is one of the richest provinces, since it contains numerous mines located on the Great Dyke. Agriculturally, the three Mashonaland provinces, ie Mashonaland East, Mashonaland Central and Mashonaland West, are the richest because they receive good rainfall during the rainy season. Located in the eastern part of the country is Manicaland, which is noted for its beautiful scenery, including several mountain ranges. This province also has several mines and the recently discovered Chiadzwa diamond fields. Twenty years after the attainment of national independence, in the year 2000, Zimbabwe experienced what can only be termed a major setback in its transition to democracy. In March of that year, the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) organised and mobilised hundreds of thousands of war veterans, unemployed youths and landless peasants to invade white-owned commercial farms throughout the country. The ruling party had been shocked by the public rejection of a government- sponsored draft constitution in a national plebiscite in February 2000. With parliamentary elections scheduled for June 2000, and the emergence of a highly popular opposition political party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), the ruling party quickly realised that it was headed for a humiliating defeat at the polls and consequent loss of political power. The fact that the MDC had attracted the support of thousands of Zimbabweans, including white commercial farmers and businesspeople, made ZANU-PF realise that only drastic measures could rescue it from certain defeat at the June 2000 polls. The unresolved land issue was the only viable means by which the Mugabe regime could appeal to the electorate to support it in that crucial election. But given the limited time between the constitutional plebiscite and the parliamentary elections, the regime realised that only violent farm invasions could effectively garner it the political support that it desperately needed in order to stay in office. It is estimated that at least 150 people and 10 white commercial farmers lost their lives as a result of the violence perpetrated by the supporters of ZANU-PF during the farm invasions. The impact of democracy on Zimbabwe 2 Eight years later, in March 2008, history repeated itself when Robert Mugabe and his ZANU-PF were beaten by the MDC in the so-called harmonised elections. However, presidential election results were delayed by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) for some six weeks, raising strong suspicions that they were being manipulated in order to save Mugabe from outright defeat by the MDC’s Morgan Tsvangirai. Indeed, when the results were finally published, they showed that although Tsvangirai had received more votes than Mugabe, he had not attained the stipulated majority of 50 per cent plus one vote. A run-off election was therefore called for 27 June, 2008. In the run-up to the run-off, ZANU-PF unleashed a wave of countrywide violence, which resulted in the deaths of nearly 100 MDC supporters, the displacement of more than 50 000 people from their rural homes, and the burning of many homes by the ZANU-PF militia working in cahoots with elements of the Zimbabwe National Army (ZNA), the Zimbabwe Republic Police (ZRP), the Zimbabwe Prison Service (ZPS), and the Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) ( www.zimonline.co.za ). The electoral environment was grossly skewed in favour of ZANU-PF. Morgan Tsvangirai was given hardly any space to campaign for support. State-owned media would not accept his campaign adverts. He was arrested at least five times within the space of two weeks. MDC supporters were harassed, beaten up, tortured, and even killed for supporting the MDC during the polls on 29 March. Tsvangirai finally announced that he was pulling out of the race in protest, much to the chagrin of Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party. Tsvangirai pointed out that ZANU-PF elements were seriously victimising his supporters, to the extent that what was supposed to be an election campaign had turned into a war. He indicated that he was not willing to get into State House by riding on the corpses of so many people ( The Zimbabwean 26.06.08). The ZEC and government officials disputed Tsvangirai’s withdrawal from the race, arguing that this had been done too late in the process (Herald , 25.06.08). Nevertheless, Tsvangirai’s withdrawal seriously embarrassed Robert Mugabe, who was itching for a fight against his arch-rival. The MDC leader had also denied Mugabe the much-needed legitimacy that he had lost as far back as the 2002 presidential elections. This paper briefly outlines some of the perceptions of Zimbabweans regarding the various changes that have occurred in the country in the past 10–15 years, particularly where the democratisation process is concerned. The paper seeks to ascertain whether the advent of democracy in Zimbabwe in 1980 has had a positive or a negative relationship with the processes of empowering the people socio-economically. It is generally agreed in Zimbabwe that the nation has moved several steps backwards since 2000 in terms of the democratisation process. This paper highlights some of the events that led to this situation, and relates these events to the current socio-economic situation in the country. The impact of democracy on Zimbabwe 3 2. METHODOLOGY This paper is largely reflective in its approach, although reference will be made to various reports of surveys conducted in Zimbabwe by a variety of institutions. Data has been largely gathered by documentary search, and content analysis is utilised to facilitate the researcher’s arrival at specific conclusions that may help to illustrate certain arguments. Several key informants were contacted for their informed views on controversial points and interpretations of selected events that occurred in Zimbabwe during the period under review. The Mass Public opinion Institute (MPOI) periodically carries out opinion surveys covering various issues of relevance to the present study. Some of the findings of these surveys follow. 3. MAJOR FINDINGS 3.1 Socio-economic changes In the period between 2000 and 2007, the Zimbabwean economy declined sharply, to the extent that 80 per cent of the nation’s manufacturing companies have witnessed declining output volumes. More than 15 per cent of them are operating at less than 30 per cent of their normal capacities. Another third of manufacturing companies are operating at between 30 per cent and 49 per cent of their capacities. Furthermore, more than 90 per cent of these companies are unable to produce enough to cover their costs, and are therefore operating at a loss. The output from the manufacturing sector has declined by 45.6 per cent since 1998. Studies indicate that manufacturing levels are at their lowest since 1971 (UNDP 2000). Obviously, per capita income has also shrunk considerably, although the cost of living has escalated phenomenally. The mining sector has also suffered serious problems, resulting in a decline in production of nearly 50 per cent, according to recent surveys. The severe shortage of foreign currency that the nation is experiencing has exacerbated the situation, since enterprises are unable to acquire the spare parts and other inputs that they badly need in order to stay afloat. It is estimated that the nation is able to provide only 10 per cent of its foreign currency needs. Put another way, foreign currency earnings have fallen by a staggering 60 per cent in the past seven years. Tainted with ridiculous political preferences, economic policies have resulted in serious distortions that, in turn, have caused arbitrage and corrupt business practices (Bloch and Robertson 1996).
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