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The Money and Bond Markets in December 1971

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The Money and Bond Markets in December 1971 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK The Money and Bond Markets in December Interest rates continued to decline on a broad front from the November average and the lowest monthly level until about mid-December, and then generaHy leveled since January 1968. off or rose somewhat over the latter half of the month. Business loan demand at weekly reporting banks con- On balanec, most interest rates were little changed for the tinued in the sluggish pattern which began in mid- month, following the sharp declines of November (sec September. During the week containing the December 15 Chart I). Over the fourth quarter as a whole, howcvcr, corporate tax payment date, business loans (adjusted for both short- and long-term rates declined considerably and sales to affiliates) grew by only $1.2 billion, compared in several instances fell to their lowest lcvels in a year with an increase of $1 .6 billion in the same period last year and a half or more. Thus, the average issuing rates on when bank reserve positions were underconsiderably more new three- and six-month bills reached their lowest point pressure. Moreover, for the fourth quarter as a whole, since late 1967, while The Weekly Bond Buyer's index repayments of business loans exceeded new borrowing at of yields on twenty municipal bonds fell to its May 1969 weekly reporting banks. Consequently, outstanding loans level by the close of 1970. fell by $1.4 billion, whereas during the comparable periods Both the money supply and the adjusted bank credit of 1968 and 1969 they rose by $4.4 billion and $3.1 proxy1 rebounded in December following two months of billion, respectively. In response to the contrascasonal relativelyslow growth. Over the fourth quarter as a whole, slackening of loan demand, commercial banks had re- the money supply apparently grew at about a 3½ percent duced their prime lending rate by percentage point in annual rate and the adjusted credit proxy at about an two steps during November. Then, following the mid- 8 percent rate. Over the year 1970 the money supply in- December corporate tax date experience, major banks creased by about 5½ percent, compared with 3 percent lowered their prime rate an additional ¼ percentage during 1969. The adjusted bank credit proxy grew by point to 6¾ percent, compared with the high of 8½ about 8/4 percent over 1970 after virtually no growth percent earlier in the year. The prime rate was again re- during the previous year. duced by ¼ percentage point to 6½ percent in early January. THE MONEY MARKET Preliminary data indicate that the money supply grew at about a 6 percentannual rate during December follow- Conditions in the money market eased further during ing gains of only 1.1 percent and 2.8 percent in October December, when the effective rate on Federal funds aver- and November when economic activity was depressed by aged 4.90 percent, some 50 basis points lower than in the strike in the automotive industry. Over the three the preceding month. Reflecting in part the substantial months as a whole, the money supply grew at about a provision of reserves by System open market operations, 3½ percent rate. The adjusted bank credit proxy showed well as continued sluggishness of loan demand, mem- an even greater rise in December, growing at an annual er bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve Banks rate of about 15 percent compared with increases of 1.1 declined further in December. Such borrowings averaged percent and 7.0 percent in the preceding two months. This $348 million for the month (see table), down $61 million brought the growth rate of the adjusted proxy over the fourth quarter to about 8 percent. Continued heavy in- flows of time deposits (see Chart II), particularly large certificates of deposit, were the primary factor in the substantialrise in the proxy. Large CD's at weekly reporting A measure of bank liabilities, which includcs deposits subject banks climbed to S26.1 billion at to reserve requirements and nondcposit items such as Euro-dollar the end of December, liabilitiesand hank-relatedcommercial paper. surpassing the late-1968 peak by $1.8 billion. 12 MONTHLY REVIEW,JANUARY 1971 ChartIi SELECTED INTEREST RATES October-December 1970 BONDMARKET YIELDS Percent 1o.Uo Yield, an new long-termp,blic utility bonds Reofferingyield —aMarket yield: Aaa Ac o 9.00 8.00 Ace.rated seasoned I corporatebond, 3-to5.year Government securities 7.00 -Long-term Government securities 6.00 20.yeor bond, tax.euempt 5.00 4.00 'III11111 111111111 ii 111111 11111 Ti Ill II 1111111111 11111- liii I 3.00 I 14 I B 4 ii in 3 d Y 10 1J October November December October November December Nate, Dataare shown foc busInessdays only. MONEYMARKET RATES QUOTED, Bid rose, For three.nronthEuro-dollar, in London,offering doily averagesof yields on teasaned Aooratedcorporate bonds,daily averages of rote,for, directly placed finance campgjsypppgy, the effective ratson Federal funds Id'. yields on lggg.ierm Government,ecuritie, Ibonds dueor callable inten years ormore) ratemost represeelatlveof the transoctionsexecuted), closing bid rateslquat.d in term, and on-Governmentsecurities due in three In liveyears. computedon the basis of closing of rate of discauntl on newestautusandieg three-month and one-year Treasury_buSh. bid prices, Thursdayaverages of yields on twenty seasonedtw.ntvyear tax .exempj_bggj BONDMARKET YIELDS QUOTED, Yield, on new Aaa-and Aa-roted psbticstilily,.gg lcarrving Moody's ratings at Aaa,An. A, andBoa). lorrows pointfrom underwriting syndicatereoftering yieldon a given issue to market Source,, Federal ReserveBank of NewYork. Boardof Governorsof the Federal ReserveSystem. yield on the same issueimmsdiately otter it hasbeen releasedfrom syndical. restrictIons), Moody'sInvestors 5.rvice, and The WeeklyJggjygy, Nondeposit liabilities of banks declined further during both banks and their customers tend to prefer deposits the month, however. Since Euro-dollar rates far exceeded to commercial paper, the volume of bank-related paper domestic interest rates, banks reduced their Euro-dollar outstanding was reduced to $2.4 billion at the end liabilities by an additional $1.1 billion. Outstanding Euro- of the year, down from a high of $7.8 billion at the end dollar liabilities of weekly reporting banks totaled $7.7 of July. billion on December 30, just one half of their October 1969 high. Bank-related commercial paper—the other THE GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET major nondeposit component of the adjusted credit proxy—also declined in December, continuing a trend The marketfor United States Treasury issues continued which has been evident since the late-August announce- to advance over the first half of December, and yields on ment of the imposition of reserve requirements on these all maturities registered additional declines. The rally liabilities. As a result of the accompanying reduction of faltered after midmouth, however, and prices generally the reserve requirement on large time deposits to the same declined thereafter, particularly in the coupon sector. As level as that on commercial paper, CD's and bank-related a result of the consolidation in the coupon market, yields paper were placed on a more nearly equal basis. Since on most longer dated securities were higher at the close FEDERAL RESERVEBANK OF NEW YORK 13 of December than they were at the start of the month. bearer Government securities by market participants. Yields on intermediate-term issues generally rose 3 to 27 Unlike yields on most Government coupon issues, basis points, while those on most long-term coupon issues Treasury bill rates declined on balance during December. ranged between 3 and 20 basis points higher. The bill market was buoyed early in the month by some The month-long rally in the bond market was sustained of the same factors that led to an improvement in coupon in the first week of December by the reduction in the dis- issues. At midmonth, when the rally in the capital markets count rate on November 30, System purchases of coupon faltered, the bill market performed quite well in the issues on the following day, and active investor demand. absence of the usual selling pressure in connection with ome profit taking then emerged, as participants reflected the corporate tax date. In addition, there was steady upon the sizable rise in prices which already had occurred, investor demand for bills much of the time and yields but after a few days the coupon market resumed its continued working down. As the holidays approached, advance. The gains at this time were triggered in large however, apprehension over the uncertain insurance situa- part by the expectation of further reductions in interest tion and a slackening of investor interest were felt in this rates, particularly in the prime rate in view of the contra- sector as well, and yields edged somewhat higher. Never- seasonal sluggishnessof business loan demand at commer- theless, rates on most issues declined by a net of 7 to 19 cial banks. Increased demand for Treasury securities on basis points over the month. the part of both investors and professionals was an addi- tional factor in the renewed advance, and over the December 1-14 period yields on most coupon issues showed net declines of 8 to 24 basis points. The better tone was short-lived, however, and yields on 15 ChartII Treasury notes and bonds began to rise on December CREDITAND MONETARYAGGREGATES in reaction to the unenthusiastic response given by inves- Seasonallyadjusted weekly averages Septemb.s-Deembes1970 tors to a large, aggressively priced new corporate bond Billion.oIdolloc. Billionnoldoila,. 222 issue. On several succeeding days coupon yields continued Ratio scale to rise, as investors and dealers attempted to reduce their holdings. Increasingly as the month progressed there was discussionof the forthcoming Treasury refunding in Febru- ary, the terms of which will probably be made known 21(' liii III liii io late in January, and a reluctance on the part of dealers 340 • 340 to add to their already large inventories in the face of the Ratio scale imminent refunding.
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