Israel and Middle East News Update

Thursday, June 24

Headlines: ● Mansour Abbas Offered Deputy Construction Minister Post ● Bennett-Lapid Gov't Carries Out Its First Outpost Evacuation ● Approves Demolition of Palestinian Home After Attack ● Biden Admin Pushing PA to Reform Terror Payment Policy ● Abbas Welcomes Bennett's Win, Urges Solutions ● Lapid to Meet Secretary of State Blinken in Rome Next Week ● Tehran: US Agrees to Remove 1,000 Trump Era Sanctions ● Sudan's Civilian Leaders Ask US for Help Talking to Israel

Commentary: ● The Foreign Policy Project: “Israel-Palestine: Renaissance of a Two- State Solution’’ - By Jon Greenwald

● Yedioth Ahronoth: “Creating a Regional Air Defense Alliance’’ - By Ephraim Sneh

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 1725 I St NW Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President News Excerpts June 24, 2021 Jerusalem Post Mansour Abbas Offered Deputy Construction Minister Post Construction and Housing Minister Ze’ev Elkin offered Ra’am chairman Mansour Abbas to be his deputy in the ministry, in an effort to resolve the first crisis in the new coalition. The post would enable Abbas to authorize the construction of tens of thousands of housing units for Israeli Arabs. Israel has never built a new city for Arabs, and Abbas could have the opportunity to change that. The coalition crisis is over a controversial ordinance preventing family reunification of Palestinians and Arab-Israelis that must come to a vote in the next week. In a new effort to resolve the dispute, Elkin offered Abbas the chairmanship of a committee on humanitarian exceptions to the law, in which he could review specific cases monthly. Abbas holds the key to passing the ordinance, after announced that it would vote for it, despite its opposition, in order to keep the coalition together. Dig Deeper ‘‘Housing Minister to Offer Deputy Ministership to Ra’am'' (Times of Israel)

Arutz Sheva Bennett-Lapid Gov't Carries Out Its First Outpost Evacuation Israeli Border Police officers from the Defense Ministry’s Civil Administration were deployed to the Oz Tzion settlement in the Binyamin district of Samaria (West Bank) to demolish several unauthorized structures. The operation is the first settlement evacuation to be carried out since the new government was sworn in. Residents of Oz Tzion received orders instructing them to leave during the operation. party chairman MK Itamar Ben-Gvir, a member of the faction, blasted the Bennett government over the demolition, saying “the person who was once the director of the Yesha Council is now leading the demolition and destruction of the settlements,” referencing Bennett’s tenure at the helm of the settlement umbrella group. Dig Deeper ‘‘In 1st for New Gov't, Building Projects in West Bank Settlements Approved’’ (Times of Israel)

Associated Press Israel Approves Demolition of Palestinian Home After Attack Israel’s Supreme Court oupheld the decision to destroy the family home of a detained Palestinian accused of a deadly shooting. It rejected a petition by his estranged wife, who lives in the house with their children and says she knew nothing about the attack. The case drew attention to Israel’s policy of demolishing the family homes of attackers after they have been killed or arrested. Israeli officials say the demolitions deter future attacks, while rights groups view it as a form of collective punishment. The US State Department has urged a halt to punitive home demolitions. An internal review by the Israeli military in 2004 reportedly questioned its effectiveness as a deterrent, leading the military to largely halt such demolitions for nearly a decade. It resumed the practice in 2014 after three Israeli teenagers were kidnapped and killed in the West Bank. Dig Deeper ‘‘Israel Greenlights Controversial Project in Hebron’s Mosque’’ (Al-Monitor) 2 Times of Israel Biden Admin Pushing PA to Reform Terror Payment Policy The Biden administration is committed to pushing the Palestinian Authority (PA) to reform its welfare policy that includes payments to security prisoners and families of Palestinians killed while carrying out terror attacks, a senior State Department official told Times of Israel. “There should be no question about this. This has been a longstanding priority of prior administrations and remains a top US priority,” the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity and insisting that the reforms the administration is encouraging will be consistent with existing US laws. The Taylor Force Act passed by Congress in 2018 suspended US aid to the PA as long as it continued to implement the existing welfare policy, which awards stipends to prisoners based on the length of their sentence. Secretary of State Antony Blinken raised his qualms about the payments during his meeting with PA President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah last month. Abbas assured Blinken that Ramallah was working to reform the policy, according to a Palestinian official. Dig Deeper ‘‘US Denies Asking PA to Assemble Negotiating Team for Peace Talks’’ (Times of Israel)

Ynet News Abbas Welcomes Bennett's Win, Urges Solutions President Abbas broke his silence on the formation of new government in Israel, welcoming Prime Minister and urging him to try and reach solutions on long-lasting issues between Palestinians and Israelis. "In the last election, the coalition for change won by one vote, and we will work with those who have been elected by the Israeli people,” said Abbas during a speech in Ramallah. “However, it all depends on Israel stopping aggression against the Palestinians, resolving our underlying issues and starting negotiations to reach a permanent solution to the conflict" he added. Abbas also addressed the demands of Hamas, who asked for the Qatari aid money to be transferred to the Gaza Strip in cash directly to them. According to Abbas, the PA is the only legal body who can be trusted with the money and is the only legitimate organization that can oversee the rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip following the May conflict that left large swaths of the enclave in ruins. Dig Deeper ‘‘Poll: Many Democrats Want More Us Support for Palestinians’’ (Ynet News)

Times of Israel Lapid to Meet Secretary of State Blinken in Rome Next Week Secretary of State Blinken will hold his first meeting with new Foreign Minister next week, both of their offices announced. Lapid will fly to Rome on Sunday to meet Blinken, who will be in Italy as part of a trip to Europe, a US official said. The meeting follows two phone calls the top diplomats held last week as Washington intensified its contacts with the new government in Israel. In the first call, Blinken congratulated Lapid on forming a coalition headed by Prime Minister Bennett. The second call last Thursday was more substantive, with the two discussing “the opportunities and ongoing challenges for Israel and the region,” according to the State Department. Lapid met Blinken for the first time last month when Blinken was in Jerusalem as part of the US effort to strengthen the recently brokered ceasefire that ended an 11-day war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Dig Deeper ‘‘Lapid, Blinken to Meet in Rome Next Week as Iran Talks Progress’’ (Jerusalem Post)

3 I24 News Tehran: US Agrees to Remove 1,000 Trump Era Sanctions Outgoing Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's chief of staff said that as part of the ongoing nuclear deal talks taking place in Vienna, Washington has agreed to lift sanctions on Iran’s oil and shipping sectors, as well as to remove several senior officials from its blacklists. “All issues of insurance, oil and shipping have been agreed, and about 1,040 sanctions from the Trump era will be lifted according to this agreement,” Mahmoud Vaezi told reporters. Several figures within Supreme Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's inner ring would be included in the removal of sanctions against individuals. The US has yet to make an announcement on the matter. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, who met with Secretary of State Blinken in Berlin revealed that the deliberations in Vienna were not easy, although he seemed confident that with the Iranian presidential ballot concluded - despite the election of ultraconservative Ebrahim Raisi - there was a "good chance to conclude the talks in the foreseeable future." Raisi - one of Khamenei's close allies - declared that from the Iranian point of view he would not permit the talks to "drag on." For his part, President Joe Biden has made clear his intention to return to the deal. Dig Deeper ‘‘US Set to Delay Next Round of Iran Talks to Hear New Israeli Position’’ (Jerusalem Post)

Axios Sudan's Civilian Leaders Ask US for Help Talking to Israel The Biden administration is urging the Israeli government to start engaging with Sudan's civilian leaders, rather than just the military, as part of the normalization process between the countries, according to Israeli officials. Sudan is governed by a transitional civilian-military council, but the Israeli government has communicated almost exclusively with the military, starting with a summit 18 months ago between then-Prime Minister and Gen. Abdel Fatah al-Burhan, the chairman of Sudan's governing council. While Burhan pushed the normalization process forward, there were strong reservations on the civilian side, many of which remain. In a meeting with the US chargé d’affaires in Khartoum, senior Sudanese civilian officials said that Israel was engaging only with the military and asked the US administration to intervene. There was also a new source of tension after an Israeli private jet affiliated with the Mossad landed in Khartoum. According to sources familiar with the flight Mossad officials met with Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, aka Hemetti. Hemetti is Burhan’s deputy who has been trying to create an independent relationship with the Israelis in order to promote his own domestic political agenda. He's also a controversial figure who has been accused of war crimes in Darfur. Sudanese officials were upset about the optics of the Mossad visit, which could be seen as an Israeli attempt to undermine Burhan and the civilian government. Sudan and Israel still haven’t signed a formal agreement on diplomatic relations. The agreement has been drafted, but the Sudanese want to have it endorsed by the Biden administration and signed in a ceremony in Washington. Dig Deeper ‘‘IMF Announces Debt Relief Package for Sudan’’ (Associated Press)

4 The Foreign Policy Project – June 24, 2021 Renaissance of a Two-State Solution By Jon Greenwald ● Though my favorite baseball team in Kansas City was always weak, a local columnist used to write every spring that it would win the championship. I know something of hope’s unreliability as a basis for prediction. But I offer this: there will be a serious chance for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute within five years. An agreement for Jewish and Arab states to live side-by-side between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River seems increasingly improbable. Last month’s fighting between Israel and the Hamas movement that controls Gaza and simultaneous riots and brutalities between Jews and Arabs within Israel have created a near consensus that the Oslo Process to reach that objective is dead. ● Fair enough. Neither side has a leadership or constituency with commitment or capability to conclude that deal. The lack of interest Israel showed under Bibi Netanyahu will not change under a conflicted coalition government dominated by right-wing parties favoring more de facto annexation of Palestinian land. Nor are the Palestinians in better shape. Their bitterly divided movements are uninterested in a unified approach to their national problem. President Abbas is in the 17th year of a four-year term. His Fatah, riddled with corruption, has little legitimacy on the West Bank, while Hamas, its popularity renewed by fighting Israel, is less inclined than ever for diplomacy. ● Ever fewer Israelis and Palestinians believe two states are feasible, and their notions of a single state alternative differ wildly. No serious politician in Israel or Palestine, much less in Washington, will propose a comprehensive initiative this year or next. Nevertheless, a sea change is underway. Israel has long largely been spared terrorism thanks to the separation barrier and security cooperation afforded by the Palestinian Authority. Fighting with Hamas is only a periodic disturbance. The Palestinian issue featured in no recent election, and Israelis had begun to think they could ignore it, that because the Sunni Arab world wanted an anti-Iran front, they could escape regional isolation without cost to their occupation policy. ● Last month’s first shock was that many Palestinians — not only in the occupied territories but also those with Israeli citizenship or East Jerusalem residency – protested, in some cases violently, in others peacefully, but in common against the varying degrees of inequality they experience. Equally unsettling, Palestinian claims of violated or withheld rights aroused new sympathy in the US among Democrats and Jews. Desire to support Israel remains bipartisan, but May’s events portend tough debate about support’s appropriate forms and context. Israel-right-or-wrong will be a less compelling attitude among traditionally friendly groups, perhaps most notably youths. One-state alternatives are beginning to receive fresh attention, with equality of rights for Palestinians rivaling maintenance of that state’s Jewish nature as the priority for many. That does not mean immediate political drama. Any Israeli government or Palestinian Authority presently on offer will probably default to expressing interest in new “Oslo” negotiations. 5 ● Without changes of hearts and leaderships, however, there is no reason to believe in more success than before. For now, friends of peace should prioritize practical improvements of Palestinian situations, under occupation and within Israel alike, and expansion of educational, social and other grassroots channels to build mutual understanding. Concentration on Palestinian rights meanwhile will have a churning effect on Israel’s Jews, making it clearer that if both peoples want a single state, the international community will insist on equal rights for Palestinians, the fifth of today’s state with Israeli citizenship as well as the larger number under occupation. ● Israelis will then have to confront seriously the choice ex-Secretary of State John Kerry once described: a democratic but no longer Jewish state or a Jewish but no longer democratic state. If they opt for the former, their choice should be respected; if they tend toward the latter, the international community should make known its displeasure and disapproval in concrete terms. Likeliest, however, is that many Israelis will begin to look anew at the benefits a fair, sustainable two-state solution could bring, including preservation of the Jewish homeland concept. That is the moment at which US and other friends should respond quickly with facilitative support for a new diplomatic initiative. Equally important, it will be the time to cash in chips with the Palestinians by urging that they seize the moment to pivot away from the temptation of growing international interest in one state back to negotiations for two states. Many predictions are sketched into this scenario, and politics can take unexpected byways. But Kansas City did win the 2015 World Series. If there are miracles on the field and at the negotiating table in 2025, you read it here first. ● Jon Greenwald, now retired, was a senior US Foreign Service Officer and Vice President of the International Crisis Group.

6 Yedioth Ahronoth – June 24, 2021 Creating a Regional Air Defense Alliance By Ephraim Sneh ● Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that United States was moving troops from the Middle East, including “Patriot” and “THAAD” anti-missiles batteries, from KSA , Iraq, Kuwait and even Jordan. The military implication is the removal of anti- missiles and important anti-UAS defense layer from US allies in the region. Though KSA has recently succeeded to intercept about ten drones that penetrated its air space, a greater challenge was the combination of rockets and missiles with cruise missiles and UAVs, launched to critical Saudi installations by Iran’s proxies, the Houthis. On September 14th, 2019, Iran launched a forceful air strike against Saudi Arabia’s (KSA) most important oil installations. The political significance of the reported US withdrawal is that it represents yet another phase in pivoting away from the Middle East, a declared strategic priority of the Obama doctrine The impact of this message to the regime in Teheran is clear. It would encourage the newly elected President Raisi, to be less flexible in the negotiation about the renewed nuclear agreement. ● This is the new regional reality, in which Israel has to act. Bluntly defying the US administration, as Netanyahu did, wouldn’t change this reality. The way to protect Israel’s vital interests is through a direct, candid and intimate dialogue with Biden administration. But this is not the only way. At the same time Israel has to tighten its cooperation with the allies of the US in the region. Some of them already have formal ties with Israel, some of them have informal ties. This cooperation should be built on a solid basis of converging. interests, not out of patronage, not out of humility. ● When the American anti-missiles batteries are outside the region, is the time when Israel has to offer KSA, UAE and Bahrein to procure “Iron Dome” and “David Sling” anti- missile defense systems made in Israel. This is a win-win situation. These countries will acquire effective, proven double -layer anti -missile defense systems. In the future, more layers can be added if necessary. Israel will receive resources it badly needs for financing the development and manufacturing of more anti- missiles interceptors. Israel urgently needs these additional interceptors to forestall the threats from our northern and southern fronts. ● It is not another commercial deal. Its meaning is a high level strategic and scientific cooperation that will profoundly change the regional balance. It will give a new dimension to the diplomatic relations, including those which are not established yet. Our new government needs a strategic, geopolitical vision. It is no secret that the former Prime Minister visited KSA and met the Crown Prince. They discussed strategic issues, but with no tangible results. It is no secret that our air defense systems were offered to various states, though not to Arab states. Establishing an alliance of air defense with our neighbors in the region is an act of geopolitical audacity. Unlike other audacious steps it doesn’t threaten the unity of our fragile coalition. That is why it can be immediately taken. ● General (Ret.) Sneh is former Deputy Minister of Defense, currently Chairman of S. Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue at Netanya Academic College. 7