THE 1978 VIRGINIA CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS by Larry Sabato

THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA VOL. 55, NO. 7 THE 1978 VIRGINIA CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS By Larry Sabato Mr. Sabato is an assistant professor of government GOP remained loyal to its traditional judge recount panel. (In elections where the and foreign affairs at the University of Virginia. nominating convention. Both 1978 vote spread is less than 1 percent, state law conventions were relatively harmonious, allows the runner-up to file for a recount; but In 1972 Republican William L. Scott and the nominees emerged as the standard all costs of the recount must be borne by the captured the U.S. Senate seat from the bearers of united parties despite the runner-up unless he should emerge moderate Democratic incumbent, William crowded fields of contenders.2 Republicans, victorious in the retabulation, in which case B.' Spong, Jr., and became Virginia's first by a narrow margin on the sixth ballot, the bills are paid from the public treasury.) Republican U.S. senator in this century. In nominated conservative Richard D. The election proved to be Virginia's the 1978 Senate election another Obenshain, former state GOP chairman, closest statewide general election contest of Republican, John W. Warner, was elected past co-chairman of the Republican National the century, but voter interest did not (in a very close race) to the seat of retiring Committee, and one of the architects of the appear to be substantially heightened by the Senator Scott. In the House of party's conservative coalition that had perceived closeness of the race. The turnout Representatives contest, the six Republican emerged during the preceding decade. The of 32.7 percent of all potential voters was and four Democratic incumbents all'von re Democrats chose former state attorney about the same as the last off-year senatorial election, thereby allowing the GOP to general Andrew Miller, who in 1969 had election in 1970. However, since nationally maintain its majority there. Since 1969 the defeated Obenshain for that position. the trend of voter participation has been state Republican party has elected three The party conventions did not conclude generally downward, even matching the successive governors, two U.S. senators the nominating process, however, for in earlier turnout might be interpreted as (and in 1976 tacitly.sypported the successful early August Obenshain was killed in a plane encouraging.3 independent candidacy of Senator Harry F. crash. Despite some dissension among The election was won for Warner in the Byrd, Jr., against a Democrat), a lieutenant Obenshain loyalists, the GOP state central Second and Third congressional districts governor, an attorney general, and a committee named convention runner-up (the Tidewater and Richmond areas); his majority of the state's congressional John Warner as the candidate after former performance elsewhere was not particularly delegation. Virginia's once-mighty state Governor Mills Godwin, the first choice of impressive when measured by the standards Democratic party is now alone among the Obenshain's followers and the party set by other recent GOP candidates. In the ifty state Democratic organizations in leadership, refused to run. Second District, Virginia Beach's suburban having failed to elect a single one of its Republicans then swiftly closed ranks vote for Warner helped him decrease gubernatorial or senatorial standard around the moderate-conservative Warner Miller's expected margin to only 646 votes. bearers in a dozen years. Only the General and sought to make up for lost time-which In the Third District, support for Warner Assembly remains a Democratic stronghold they were barely able to do. Final official from the conservative Richmond in Virginia. returns showed that John Warner won a newspapers helped to build a massive vote paper-thin victory of 4,721 votes out of for him in Chesterfield, Henrico, and West THE SENATE ELECTION 1,222,256 total votes cast-or 613,232 votes End Richmond, despite Miller's Henrico In a major break with tradition, state (50.2 percent) to Miller's 608,511 votes (49.8 residency. Warner also won minimal Democrats abandoned their long-favored percent). Miller subsequently filed a recount victories in the Fifth, Sixth, and Seventh primary election at the statewide level and petition, but it was withdrawn in mid districts, all of them well off the beaten instead held a nominating convention to December when he could not meet the bond Republican path. choose their senatorial candidate.1 The costs of $80,000 fixed by a special three- 3Conceivably, turnout in 1978 was enhanced by the presence on lOnly twice before hadDemocratschosena nominating method the ballot of a referendum item pertaining to pari-mutuel betting on other than the primary, and in both instances it was to fill an un· horse racing. The proposal to authorize such betting on a local expected vacancy. See Larry Sabato, The Democratic Party 2For a detailed discussion of the conventions, see Alan option basis failed, 52 percent to 48 percent, with the Urban Primary in Virginia: Tantamount to Election No Longer Abramowitz, John McGlennon, and Ronald Rapoport, ''The 1978 Corridor, central cities, and Standard Metropolitan Statistical (Charlottesville: Published for the Institute of Government by the Virginia Senatorial Nominating Conventions," University of Areas favoring by a modest margin, but with all other areas University Press of Virginia, 1978), pp. 54-60, 83-84, 89-98. Virginia News Letter, December 1978. strongly opposed. INSTITUTE OF GOVERNMENT / UNIVERSITY OF VIRGIJolIA / CHARLOTTESVILLE / MARCH 1979 26 Miller showed surprlSlng strength in Warner's victory was due in large percent, as compared to only a 2.3 percent Southside, the Valley, and western Virginia. measure to his strong suburban vote. He ran decline in the overall total vote. Ifthe decline He also won the marginal First District with considerably better in suburban areas (53.7 in black turnout from 1977 had not beenany a convincing majority and the solidly percent) than in either the central cities or greater proportionately than the total vote Democratic Fourth District by a rnuch the rural areas of Virginia, both of which decline, of course, Miller would have been larger margin. The vote in the southwest Miller carried (see Table 1). This substantial elected. Virginia Ninth District, where Miller was a suburban edge for Republicans has been the H "favorite son candidate because of his normal voting pattern in all modern Virginia An Associated Press-NBC news poll of earlier residence there, was something of a elections. The closeness of this year's race 2,800 voters as they left the polling booths disappointment to him (as it has been to was especially reflected in the Urban on election day found that Warner won 60 most Democratic candidates); although Corridor vote, where Warner narrowly led percent of the independent vote, and this Miller carried the district, the majority did Miller, 50.5 percent to 49.5 percent. pattern closely follows that of recent years in not approach the anticipated margin. Virginia. Independents in Virginia tend to be Miller's most amazing feat, however, was congregated at the conservative end of the winning the northern Virginia Eighth and A good part of Miller)s urbanstrengthwas derived from a solid black vote in his favor. A ideological spectrum; and the greatest part Tenth districts. The Miller vote there of the conservative coalition, led by former appeared to be a "coattail" effect of the survey of forty-three selected predominant ly black precincts in Virginia indicates, as Governor Mills E. Godwin, Jr., supported strong vote-producing organizations of Warner in the general election even though northern- \1rrglnia"s tW61fuperl1e-d liberal shown in ''fable 2, that despite MiHees lukewarm support by black voter organiza he was not their original choice for the Democratic congressmen. Miller's effort in Republican nomination. Warner's wife, the region was helped by endorsements tions (due to his ambivalent stand on future extension of the Voting Rights Act and the actress Elizabeth Taylor, helped to provide from both the Washington Post and the crucial name identification for him quickly, Washington Star; Warner's image was hurt enlistment of former segregationist con gressman Watkins Abbitt in his campaign), and Warner)s personal finances supported by allegations late in the campaign that he an intensive media effort. Warner spent had"bought" his position as Secretary of the 92.9 percent of the black voters cast a ballot for Miller. Turnout in black precincts was about $1.1 million of his own money in his Navy in the Nixon administration with large nomination and general election campaigns. family contributions to Nixon's presidential down somewhat from the 1977 gubernator ial election) however, declining by 11.4 In the general election his campaign spend campaigns. ing totalled $1.2 million to Miller's $0.8 million. The state Republican party comple mented Warner's persona] efforts by run ning yet another up-to-date, highly profes sional campaign (a far better one than the stateDemocrats are technologically capable of conducting). TABLE 1 Miller was able to expand the Democratic base considerably beyond gubernatorial The Urban Vote in the 1978 Virginia General candidate Henry Howell>s weak 1977 Election for U. S. Senator showing, though not as far as Charles Robb did in his successful race that year for lieutenant governor. Despite being underfi nanced and lacking exceptional campaign Percent Percent Percent

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