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What We're Going to Do 8/24/2018 57 What We’re Going to Do Day 1: Orientation to Virginia Day 2: Modern Virginia Political History Day 3: Current Politics in Virginia 58 59 Estimated population: <10,000 1 8/24/2018 60 Estimated population: 57,000 61 62 Estimated population: 450,000 (1/3 of total US Population) 2 8/24/2018 Virginia 63 State Land Claims After the Revolution 64 Population 750,000 65 Population 1.2 million 3 8/24/2018 The “Solid South” 66 Number of times state voted (Presidential Elections for the Democrat, 1876-1964 <17 (23 elections) 18-19 20-21 22 23 Virginia voted for Republican Candidate in 1872, 1928, 1952, and 1956 67 68 4 8/24/2018 Partisan Breakdown in Virginia – 69 Presidential Elections (1960-2016) 1960-1968 1972 1976 1980-2004 2008-2016 70 Recent Presidential Elections in Virginia Election Democratic Republican Votes Votes 2000 44.4% 52.5% 2004 45.6 53.8 2008 52.6 46.3 2012 51.2 47.3 2016 49.8 44.4 Current Virginia Politics 71 At the beginning of 2018, Virginia was one of 16 states under divided government Statewide offices (controlled by Democrats) General Assembly controlled by Republicans (House 51-49, Senate 21-19) House of Representatives – 7 Republicans, 4 Democrats 5 8/24/2018 Current state government “trifectas” -- governor and both houses of legislature 72 controlled by the same political party Recent Virginia Election History 73 7 Presidential elections 1992-2016 – Republicans won 4, Democrats won 3. In 2016, Virginia was a closely watched battleground state Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump 49.7% to 44.0% Virginia was the only state of the “old Confederacy” that supported Clinton 2016 Presidential Election 74 Clinton defeated Trump in 51 out of 100 House of Delegates districts Trump defeated Clinton in six of 11 Congressional districts Five counties in Virginia—Buckingham, Caroline, Essex, Nelson, and Westmoreland—voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 but voted for Trump in 2016. 6 8/24/2018 Virginian Election History 75 1977-2009: the Virginia Gubernatorial Election went against the previous Presidential Election: 1977 – Republican wins after Carter (D) 1981 – Democrat wins after Reagan (R) 1985 – Democrat wins after Reagan (R) 1989 – Democrat wins after Bush (R) Virginian Election History 76 1993 – Republican wins after Clinton (D) 1997 – Republican wins after Clinton (D) 2001 – Democrat wins after Bush (R) 2005 – Democrat wins after Bush (R) 2009 – Republican wins after Obama (D) Virginian Election History 77 Did not hold true in 2013 and 2017 2013 – Democrat wins after Obama (D) 2017 – Democrat wins after Clinton (D) 7 8/24/2018 Partisan Breakdown in Virginia - 78 Governors Number of Years Party Breakdown Governors 1874-1902 8 All Democrats 1906-1966 16 All Democrats 6 Republicans, 1970-2017 13 7 Democrats Partisan Breakdown in Virginia – 79United States Senators Years Congress Party Breakdown 1881-1887 47th – 49th 1 Republican, 1 Democrat 1887-1965 50th - 88th 2 Democrats 1965-1973 89th – 92nd 1 Independent, 1 Democrat 1973-1983 93rd – 97th 1 Independent, 1 Republican 1983-1989 98th – 100th 2 Republicans 1989-2001 101st – 106th 1 Republican, 1 Democrat 2001-2007 107th – 109th 2 Republicans 2007-2009 110th 1 Republican, 1 Democrat 2009-2017 111th – 115th 2 Democrats Partisan Breakdown in Virginia – 80United States House of Representatives Number of Number of Years Party Breakdown Districts Elections 1885-1901 10 8 73 Democrats, 7 Republicans 1903-1933 10 16 145 Democrats, 15 Republicans 1935-1953 9 10 All Democrats 1955-1967 10 8 69 Democrats, 11 Republicans 1969-1991 10 12 42 Democrats, 78 Republicans 64 Democrats, 78 Republicans,1 1993-2017 11 13 Independent 8 8/24/2018 (Current) 81 Partisan Breakdown in Virginia – 82 State Senate Year Democrats Republicans 1960 38 2 1970 33 7 1980 32 9 1990 30 10 2000 19 21 2010 22 18 2017 19 21 Note: --Republicans and Democrats were tied 20-20 from 1996-2000 and again from 2012-2015. When there is a tie, the Lt. Governor acts as the tie-breaker. From 1996- 2000, Lt. Gov. was a Republican. From 2012-2015, Lt. Gov. was a Democrat Virginia State Senate – 83 (Current) 9 8/24/2018 Partisan Breakdown in Virginia – 84 House of Delegates Year Democrats Republicans Independents 1960 96 4 0 1970 75 24 1 1980 74 25 1 1990 59 40 1 2000 50 49 1 2010 39 59 2 2016 34 66 0 2018 49 51 0 Democratic seats held Democratic seats gained 85 (Current)Republican seats held After 2017 elections 86 10 8/24/2018 Years Political Era (from Frank B. Atkinson’s books about Virginia politics) 1945-5387 The Byrd Organization’s Loosening Grip 1954-63 Massive Resistance 1964-67 New Democratic Coalition 1968-71 The Holton GOP 1972-75 Rapid Realignment 1976-80 Republican Ascendancy 1981-92 The Democratic Decade 1993-99 “Virginia Renaissance” 2000-06 “Sensible Center” Massive Resistence: Key Players in Virginia: 88 Harry F. Byrd, Sr. and Jr. (held Effort throughout the South to Senate seat in Virginia 1933- 1983) resist school desegregation “Byrd Machine” after 1954 Brown v. Board of Education ruling Where: Virginia and Key Events: other Southern States When: 1950s • “Dixiecrats” - 1948 • “Southern Strategy” : • “Strategic Silence” Outcome • Shutdown of public schools – Republican Party rose in particularly Prince Edward Virginia and throughout County (1959-1964) the South Governor-to-Senator Governor Senator pipeline89 in Virginia Charles “Chuck” 1982-1986 1989-2001 Robb (D) George Allen (R) 1994-1998 2001-2007 2008-present (up for Mark Warner (D) 2002-2006 re-election in 2020) 2013-present (up for Tim Kaine (D) 2006-2010 re-election in 2018) 11 8/24/2018 Other Significant Political Position Political Significance Virginians 90 Governor – 2 separate terms Illustrates Virginia’s Mills 1966-1970 – Democrat changing party Godwin 1974-1978 - Republican alignment Linwood First GOP governor since Governor 1970-1974 Holton Reconstruction L. Douglas First black governor in “Doug” Governor – 1990-1994 the US since Wilder Reconstruction US House of Reps 1975-1983 President of CNU Paul Trible US Senator – 1983-1989 1996-present Married to Mellon John US Senator 1979-2009 heiress and to Warner Elizabeth Taylor 12.
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