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Strategic Personality and the Effectiveness of Nuclear Deterrence: Deterring Iraq and Iran INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES DEFENSE THREAT REDUCTION AGENCY Strategic Personality and the Effectiveness of Nuclear Deterrence: Deterring Iraq and Iran Caroline F. Ziemke September 2001 Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. IDA Paper P-3658 Log: H 01-001983 SPONSOR: Defense Threat Reduction Agency Dr. Jay Davis, Director Advanced Systems and Concepts Office Dr. Randall S. Murch, Director BACKGROUND: The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) was founded in 1998 to integrate and focus the capabilities of the Department of Defense (DoD) that address the weapons of mass destruction threat. To assist the Agency in its primary mission, the Advanced Systems and Concepts Office (ASCO) develops and maintains an evolving analytical vision of necessary and sufficient capabilities to protect United States and Allied forces and citizens from WMD attack. ASCO is also charged by DoD and by the U.S. Government generally to identify gaps in these capabilities and initiate programs to fill them. It also provides supprt to the Threat Reduction Advisory Committee (TRAC), and its Panels, with timely, high quality research. ASCO ANALYTICAL SUPPORT: The Institute for Defense Analyses has provided analytical support to DTRA since the latter’s inception through a series of projects on chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons issues. This work was performed for DTRA under contract DASW01 98 C 0067, Task DC-6-1990. SUPERVISING PROJECT OFFICER: Dr. Anthony Fainberg, Chief, Advanced Concepts and Technologies Division, ASCO, DTRA, (703) 767-5709. © 2001 INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES: 1801 N. Beauregard Street, Alexandria, Virginia 22311-1772. Telephone: (703) 845-2000. Project Coordinator: Dr. Brad Roberts, Research Staff Member, (703) 845-2489. REPORT: This material may be reproduced by or for the U.S. Government pursuant to the copyright license under the clause at DFARS 252.227-7013 (NOV 95). The publication of this document does not indicate endorsement by the Department of Defense, nor should the contents be construed as reflecting the official position of the sponsoring agency. INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES IDA Paper P-3658 Strategic Personality and the Effectiveness of Nuclear Deterrence: Deterring Iraq and Iran Caroline F. Ziemke PREFACE This study was conducted under the sponsorship of the Advanced Systems and Concepts Office (ASCO) of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). It is a continuation of a study published by IDA and DTRA/ASCO in November 2000, entitled “Strategic Personality and the Effectiveness of Nuclear Deterrence” (IDA Document D-2537). The author is indebted to the colleagues who contributed time and intellectual energy to this work. Dr. Tony Fainberg and Dr. William Durch of DTRA collaborated to develop the scenarios that constitute the core of this analysis and helped implement, refine, and critique the study at all stages of its development. The comments, corrections, and suggestions of Dr. Philippe Loustaunau and Dr. Kongdan Oh Hassig – both of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of IDA – and members of the DTRA / ASCO staff have resulted in a product with more coherence and, the author hopes, fewer errors of fact and logic. Dr. Victor Utgoff, Deputy Director of SFRD, has been a mentor, collaborator, sounding board, and cheerleader for the Strategic Personality methodology since its inception (for which he deserves much of the credit and the author’s undying gratitude). General Larry Welch, President of IDA, and Mr. Michael Leonard, Director of SFRD, have provided moral, intellectual, and administrative support throughout the five years’ gestation of this methodology. Ms. Eileen Doherty and Ms. Barbara Varvaglione provided editorial and production guidance and support. Responsibility for any inaccuracies, omissions, or other lapses in judgment is, of course, the author’s alone. iii CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................... ES-1 I. NUCLEAR DETERRENCE AND THREAT REDUCTION IN THE ERA OF THE “KOSOVO SYNDROME”........................................................ 1 A. Strategic Personality and the Effectiveness of Nuclear Deterrence............ 4 B. Deterring Iran and Iraq................................................................................ 5 II. DETERRING IRAQ ............................................................................................... 9 A. Iraq’s Strategic Personality......................................................................... 9 1. The Cradle of Civilization ..................................................................... 9 2. The Abbasid Caliphate........................................................................... 11 3. From Gilgamesh, Hammurapi, and Nebuchadrezzar to Saddam Hussein................................................................................. 14 4. Iraq’s Introverted, Sensing, Thinking Strategic Personality.................. 19 5. Iraq’s Strategic Outlook......................................................................... 24 B. The Scenario ............................................................................................... 25 1. Historical Background .......................................................................... 25 2. The Scenario .......................................................................................... 28 3. Balance of Ultimate Concerns and Strategic Personalities.................... 30 C. Deterring Iraq.............................................................................................. 39 1. An Iraqi Strategic Calculus.................................................................... 40 2. Forging an Effective Deterrent .............................................................. 42 3. Immediate and Effective Deterrence ..................................................... 45 III. DETERRING IRAN ............................................................................................... 49 A. Iran’s Strategic Personality......................................................................... 49 1. The Cradle of Civilization ..................................................................... 49 2. Iran’s Islamic Identity: Shi’ism and Islamic Revolution ....................... 52 3. Iran’s Introverted, Intuitive, Feeling Strategic Personality.................... 59 4. Iran’s Strategic Outlook......................................................................... 63 B. The Scenario ............................................................................................... 64 1. Historical Background ........................................................................... 64 2. The Scenario .......................................................................................... 67 3. The Balance of Ultimate Concerns and Strategic Personalities............. 71 C. Deterring Iran.............................................................................................. 83 1. An Iranian Strategic Calculus ................................................................ 84 2. Forging an Effective Deterrent .............................................................. 85 3. Immediate and Extended Deterrence..................................................... 88 v IV. CONCLUSIONS.................................................................................................... 93 A. Threats to “Challengers’ ” Ultimate Concerns ........................................... 93 1. Introverted States ................................................................................... 93 2. Sensing Iraq and Intuitive Iran............................................................... 96 3. Thinking Iraq and Feeling Iran .............................................................. 97 B. The Utility of Nuclear Weapons................................................................. 99 C. Deterring Iraq and Iran: Countering Potential “Clashes of Strategic Personality ................................................................................... 102 1. Extroverted United States and Introverted Challengers and Allies ....... 102 2. Sensing Iraq versus Intuitive United States ........................................... 103 3. Intuitive Iran versus Intuitive United States .......................................... 104 4. Thinking Iraq versus Feeling United States........................................... 105 5. Feeling Iran versus Feeling United States ............................................. 106 D. Threat Reductions without the Kosovo Syndrome? ................................... 106 Appendix A: The Strategic Personality Types........................................................ A-1 Appendix B: Strategic Personality and Ultimate Concerns: The Introverted Types....................................................................................... B-1 Appendix C: The Strategic Personality Types and Exemplar States...................... C-1 vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The likelihood of some future rogue state launching an ICBM in what would certainly be a suicidal act of vengeance or retaliation against the United States is, if not altogether impossible, then at least vanishingly small. The real reason the United States must keep nonproliferation and nuclear deterrence at the very center of its national security strategy is the imperative to defend its oldest and most cherished Ultimate Concern: maintaining the global strategic, economic, and diplomatic freedom of action that
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