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South Africa CSP 2018-22

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South Africa CSP 2018-22 Public Dic AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK sclosure Authorized REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA Public Disclosure COUNTRY STRATEGY PAPER 2018-2022 Authorized SOUTHERN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT AND BUSINESS DELIVERY OFFICE (RDGS) June 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................... iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................... v I. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 1 II. COUNTRY CONTEXT AND PROSPECTS ............................................................................ 1 2.1 Political Context and Prospects ..................................................................................... 1 2.2 Economic Context and Prospects................................................................................... 2 2.3 Social Context and Cross-Cutting Themes .................................................................... 6 III. STRATEGIC OPTIONS, PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE AND LESSONS ................. 7 3.1 Country Strategic Framework ........................................................................................ 7 3.2 Aid Coordination, Harmonisation and Bank Positioning .............................................. 8 3.3 Strengths and Opportunities, Weaknesses and Challenges ............................................ 8 3.4 Key Findings of the 2017 Country Portfolio Performance Review ............................. 12 3.5 Lessons Learned from the CSP 2013-2017 Completion Report and 2017 CPPR ....... 12 IV. BANK GROUP STRATEGY 2018-2022 .................................................................................. 13 4.1 Rationale and Strategic Selectivity .............................................................................. 13 4.2 CSP Objectives and Strategic Pillars ........................................................................... 14 4.3 Expected Results and Targets ...................................................................................... 16 4.4 Indicative Lending Programme .................................................................................... 19 4.5 Non-Lending Activities ............................................................................................... 19 4.6 Financing the CSP........................................................................................................ 19 4.7 CSP Monitoring and Evaluation .................................................................................. 20 4.8 Country Dialogue ......................................................................................................... 20 4.9 Risks and Mitigation Measures .................................................................................... 20 V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................. 20 LIST OF ANNEXES Annex 1: Country Strategy Paper 2018-2022 Results-Based Framework………………………… 1 Annex 2a: Indicative Lending and Non-lending Program 2018-2020 ................................................ IV Annex 2b: Contribution of the Indicative Lending and Non-lending Program to the High-5s .......... V Annex 3: Political Context and Prospects ............................................................................................... VI Annex 4: Economic Context and Prospects........................................................................................... VII Annex 5: Macroeconomic Managment ................................................................................................. XIII Annex 6: Potential for Re-Industrialization ..........................................................................................XVI Annex 7: Regional Integration and Inclusive Growth .........................................................................XXI Annex 8: Infrastructure ......................................................................................................................... XXV Annex 9: Sectoral Analysis .............................................................................................................. XXVIII Annex 10: Social Context and Cross-Cutting Themes ..................................................................... XXXI Annex 11: Lessons Learned, Risks and Proposed Mitigation Measures ..................................... XXXVI Annex 12: Key Messages from the AfDB Sector Analytical Briefs Underpinning the CSP . XXXVIII Annex 13: Economic and Sector Works Underpinning the CSP 2018-2022 ................................. XLII Annex 14.1: Summary of Emerging Messages from Consultations With Stakeholders ..............XLIII Annex 14.2: Key Steps of Consultations With Stakeholders During CSP Preparation ............... XLIV Annex 14.3: Entities Consulted During the CSP Mission and Workshop………………………… XLV Annex 15: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators ............................................................................ XLVIII Annex 16: Comparative Socio Economic Indicators....................................................................... XLIX Annex 17a: Projects Approved During the CSP Period 2013-2017 ...................................................... L Annex 17b: Status of Bank Group Activities in South Africa ...............................................................LI Annex 17c: Key Performance Indicators for Ongoing Portfolio ......................................................... LII Annex 18: Key Findings of the 2013-2017 CSP Completion Report ................................................ LIII Annex 19: 2017 Country Portfolio Improvement Plan ...................................................................... LIV Annex 20: Donor Matrix ....................................................................................................................... LVI Annex 21: Progress Towards Millennium Development Goals ....................................................... LVII Annex 22: Progress in Achieving the SDGs .....................................................................................LVIII Annex 23: BDEV Recommendations and Actions Taken ................................................................ LIX Annex 24: CODE Comments on the CSP 2013-2017 Completion Report .. .................................... LX Annex 25: Overview of State Owened Enterprises in South Africa… ……………… ..LXII i LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Real GDP and Sector Growth, 2012-19 ..................................................................... 3 Figure 2. Fiscal Balance, 2012-19 ............................................................................................. 4 Figure 3. Current Account Balance, 2012-19 ............................................................................ 5 LIST OF BOXES Box 1. South Africa's Dual Economy……………………………………………………….. 2 Box 2. Weaknesses and Challenges…………………………………………………………...9 Box 3. Strengths and Opportunities………………………………………………………….10 Box 4. Key lessons from Implementation of CSP 2013-2017…………...…………………..13 END NOTES End Notes…………………………………………………………………………………… 65 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (February 2018) Currency Unit = South African Rand (ZAR) UA 1.0 = ZAR 17.26 UA 1.0 = USD 1.45 USD 1.0 = ZAR 11.82 GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR 1 April to 31 March WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric System ii ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS AG Auditor General ANC African National Congress BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa COSATU Congress of South African Trade Unions CPIA Country Policy and Institutional Assessment CPIP Country Portfolio Improvement Plan CPPR Country Portfolio Performance Review CSP Country Strategy Paper CTF Clean Technology Fund DA Democratic Alliance DBDM Development and Business Delivery Model EFF Economic Freedom Fighters GDP Gross Domestic Product IMF International Monetary Fund IPAP Industrial Policy Action Plan IPP Independent Power Producers LOC(s) Line(s) of credit MDGs Millennium Development Goals MIC Middle Income Country MTR Mid-Term Review MTSF Medium Term Strategic Framework M&E Monitoring and Evaluation NDP National Development Plan PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability Assessment PFM Public Finance Management GORSA Government of Republic of South Africa SACU Southern African Customs Union SADC Southern African Development Community SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SMMEs Small, Micro and Medium Enterprises SOEs State Owned Enterprises TFP Total Factor Productivity TYS Ten Year Strategy UA Unit of Account USD United States Dollar WB World Bank WEF World Economic Forum iii iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. This report proposes the Bank Group’s Country Strategy Paper (CSP) for South Africa for the period 2018-2022. The CSP has been prepared at a time when South Africa adopted its first Medium-Term Strategic Framework (MTSF) 2014-19 to implement its National Development Plan “Vision 2030”. The MTSF attaches top priority to economic transformation, rapid economic growth and job creation, and includes key measures such as crowding in productive investments through infrastructure development, enhancing competitiveness in the productive sectors of the economy, addressing spatial imbalances in economic opportunities, and eliminating unnecessary regulatory burdens, among others. The CSP 2018-22 was prepared based on extensive consultations with the Government of South Africa (GoSA), development partners,
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