Population Dynamics in South Africa Report No. 03-01-67 ISBN 978-0-621-43660-0 The South Africa I know, the home I understand Census 2011: Population Dynamics in South Africa Statistics South Africa Pali Lehohla Report No. 03-01-67 Statistician-General Statistics South Africa ii Census 2011: Population Dynamics / Statistics South Africa Published by Statistics South Africa, Private Bag X44, Pretoria 0001 © Statistics South Africa, 2015 Users may apply or process this data, provided Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) is acknowledged as the original source of the data; that it is specified that the application and/or analysis is the result of the user's independent processing of the data; and that neither the basic data nor any reprocessed version or application thereof may be sold or offered for sale in any form whatsoever without prior permission from Stats SA. Stats SA Library Cataloguing-in-Publication (CIP) Data Census 2011: Population Dynamics / Statistics South Africa. Pretoria: Statistics South Africa, 2012 Report No. 03-01-67 124pp ISBN 978-0-621-43660-0 A complete set of Stats SA publications is available at the Stats SA Library and the following libraries: National Library of South Africa, Pretoria Division National Library of South Africa, Cape Town Division Library of Parliament, Cape Town Bloemfontein Public Library Natal Society Library, Pietermaritzburg Johannesburg Public Library Eastern Cape Library Services, King William’s Town Central Regional Library, Polokwane Central Reference Library, Nelspruit Central Reference Collection, Kimberley Central Reference Library, Mmabatho This publication is available on the Stats SA website: www.statssa.gov.za For technical enquiries please contact: Diego Iturralde / Lesego Masebe Tel: (012) 310 8922 / (012) 310 6914 Fax: (012) 310 8339 Email: [email protected] / [email protected] For dissemination enquiries please contact Printing and Distribution, Statistics South Africa Ina du Plessis Email: [email protected] Census 2011: Population Dynamics Report 03-01-67 Statistics South Africa iii Preface Evidence-based decision-making has become an indispensable practice universally because of its role in ensuring efficient management of populations, economic and social affairs. It is in this regard that Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) is mandated to provide the state and other stakeholders with official statistics on the demographic, economic and social situations of the country to support planning, monitoring and evaluation of the implementation of programmes and other initiatives. In fulfilling its mandate prescribed in the Statistics Act, (Act No. 6 of 1999), Stats SA has conducted three Censuses (1996, 2001 and 2011) and various household-based surveys. Censuses remain one of the key data sources that provide government planners, policy-makers and administrators with information on which to base their social and economic development plans and programmes at all levels of geography. Census information is also used in the monitoring of national priorities and their achievements, and the universally adopted Millennium Development Goals. This demand for evidence-based policy-making continues to create new pressures for the organisation to go beyond statistical releases that profile basic information and embark on the production of in-depth analytical reports that reveal unique challenges and opportunities that the citizenry have at all levels of geography. This analytical work also enhances intellectual debates which are critical for policy reviews and interventions. The above process is aimed at enabling the organisation to respond to, and support evidence- based policy-making adequately, build analytical capacity and identify emerging population, socio-economic and social issues that require attention in terms of policy formulation and research. The monograph series represents the first phase of detailed analytical reports that are theme-based aimed at addressing topics on education, disability, ageing, nuptiality, age structure, migration, fertility, and mortality among others. The age and sex structure of a population is affected by the changes in the population. These changes could be brought by migration, fertility or mortality. Amongst these three demographic phenomena, this report attempts to establish the main process that changed population age-sex structure. It also seeks to explore the possibility of the country to capitalise from the demographic dividend that stemmed from demographic transition. Census 2011: Population Dynamics Report 03-01-67 Statistics South Africa iv Acknowledgements Statistics South Africa wishes to express sincere thanks to Lesego Olga Masebe, Lesego Lefakane, Mercy Shoko, Diego Iturralde, David Baloyi and Princelle Dasappa-Venketsamy for the contributions they made in the compilation of this monograph. The organisation’s gratitude also goes out to Dr John Kekovole and Dr Nicole de Wet for their constructive criticisms, guidance, encouragement and technical expertise provided in the course of the review of this publication. Census 2011: Population Dynamics Report 03-01-67 Statistics South Africa v Executive summary Besides the major findings of the national population and housing results from Census 2011 which were published in 2012, a detailed analysis of the population age-sex structure was undertaken to provide an insight of the demographic transition over time. While the population aged 15–64 increased steadily from 1996–2011, the child population (0– 14) shows a decreasing trend across the years. South Africa has an intermediary population, with the median age ranking between 22 and 25. The white population group had the median ages of over 30 in all the three years under consideration; and this population group appears to be older than all other population groups. The overall sex ratio is still in favour of females, it increased from 92,7 in 1996 to 94,8 in 2011. The highest increase of sex ratio is more pronounced in the Indian/Asian population group. The burden of children and elderly on those who are economically productive declined over time, however, the white population group dependency ratio indicates a stable pattern from 1996 to 2011. Despite the attempts made to explain the population age-structure of the 2011 Census, empirical investigation still needs to be done to establish the declining child population aged within the 5–14 age group that was observed in 2011. Nonetheless, analysis of past mortality levels and trends, indicate that the marked increase in infant and child mortality, as well as the decrease in the life expectancy that were observed between 1998 and 2006 might be indicative of a decrease of this cohort. The intensive government programmes which appeared to have reduced child mortality rates and thus increased life expectancy, with the improved undercount rate of children aged 0–4 from 2001 to 2011 could be attributed to a broader base of the 2011 population structure. Amongst the three processes of population change, fertility seems to have been the main contributing factor to the change in population age-sex structure over time. The observed fertility decline that occurred more than four decades ago, resulted in the shift from child population to youth population aged 20–29. This youth bulge increased markedly from 1996 to 2011, thus creating a demographic dividend. The question that remained unanswered is whether the country could benefit from this window of opportunity. Empirical findings with regard to youth unemployment rates, uncertainties about quality of education and the scourge of HIV/AIDS among the young population might prohibit the country from benefiting from this demographic dividend. Census 2011: Population Dynamics Report 03-01-67 Statistics South Africa vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1: Overview .................................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2: Assessment of data ................................................................................................................................ 4 2.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 4 2.2 Imputation rates ................................................................................................................................................ 4 2.3 Comparison between the National Population Register, 2011 and census, 2011 ......................................... 5 2.4 Distribution of population by age in single years .............................................................................................. 6 2.5 Age ratios .......................................................................................................................................................... 7 2.6 UN Accuracy Index ........................................................................................................................................... 8 2.7 Summary ......................................................................................................................................................... 10 Chapter 3: What could have contributed to the shape of age and sex structure of the population, 1996-2011? ................................................................................................................................................................