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Structural Transformation in South Africa Is a Necessary and Exceedingly Timely Contribution to the Agenda for Reindustrialisation

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Structural Transformation in South Africa Is a Necessary and Exceedingly Timely Contribution to the Agenda for Reindustrialisation This paper forms part of a series of studies on the challenges of industrialisation undertaken by the Industrial Development Think Tank (IDTT). Established in 2017, the IDTT is supported by the Department of Trade and Industry (the dti) and is housed in the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development (CCRED) in partnership with the SARChI Chair in Industrial Development at the University of Johannesburg. The studies review trends of (de)industrialisation and assess the potential for structural transformation to drive growth, industrialisation and development in different sectors in South Africa. Contents CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 2: UNDERSTANDING STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND INDUSTRIALISATION .................................................................................................................. 3 2.1. STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND INDUSTRIALISATION ................................................... 3 2.2. ASSESSING STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY ................... 5 2.3. CONTINUITY AND CHANGE: CONCENTRATION AND FINANCIALISATION .................................. 18 CHAPTER 3: INSIGHTS FROM INDUSTRY STUDIES .............................................................. 26 3.1. METALS, MACHINERY, AND EQUIPMENT (MME) ................................................................ 26 3.2. AUTOMOTIVE VEHICLES AND COMPONENTS ..................................................................... 32 3.3. AGRICULTURE AND AGRO-PROCESSING ........................................................................... 35 CHAPTER 4: LESSONS ON STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION FROM INDUSTRY STUDIES ................................................................................................................................................... 41 4.1. STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION, INDUSTRIALISATION AND ECONOMIC POWER .................... 41 4.2. MACROECONOMIC POLICIES AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION ..................................... 50 CHAPTER 5: TOWARDS A SMART, OPEN ECONOMY FOR ALL ........................................... 57 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................... 64 APPENDIX ................................................................................................................................. 71 APPENDIX A1: REAL MANUFACTURING OUTPUT ........................................................................... 71 APPENDIX A2: COMPOSITION OF SOUTH AFRICA’S EXPORT BASKET.............................................. 72 APPENDIX A3: ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY OF SOUTH AFRICA VERSUS MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES.... 73 APPENDIX A4: HERFINDAHL-HIRSCHMAN PRODUCT CONCENTRATION INDEX OF SOUTH AFRICA VERSUS MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES .......................................................................................... 74 APPENDIX A5: PRODUCT LINKAGES FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES (1995 AND 2016) ......................... 75 APPENDIX A6: SERVICES VALUE ADD .......................................................................................... 79 APPENDIX A7: MOST COMMON INVESTORS ON THE JSE .............................................................. 80 List of Figures Figure 1: Manufacturing value-added performance: selected sectors ............................................ 7 Figure 2: Merchandise export shares .......................................................................................... 10 Figure 3: Foreign and domestic value added in exports of manufacturing sectors ....................... 11 Figure 4: South Africa's export basket (1995) .............................................................................. 12 Figure 5: South Africa's export basket (2016) .............................................................................. 13 Figure 6: Manufacturing investment, as % of value add .............................................................. 14 Figure 7: Manufacturing investment, share by major sector ........................................................ 15 Figure 8: Gross fixed capital formation in selected countries ....................................................... 16 Figure 9: Portfolio inflows and FDI outflows ................................................................................ 20 Figure 10: Number of disaggregated manufacturing sectors by different levels of concentration (measured by CR5) ..................................................................................................................... 23 Figure 11: Manufacturing sub-sector gross operating surplus, as % of value add ....................... 23 Figure 12: MME subsectors value added .................................................................................... 27 Figure 13: Metals and Machinery sectors: South African trade balances ..................................... 28 Figure 14: South Africa's exports and imports of cast products ................................................... 29 Figure 15: Value addition breakdown of global and South African automotive supply ................. 32 Figure 16: Agriculture and food output, value add and employment ............................................ 36 Figure 17: Main agriculture exports ............................................................................................. 37 Figure 18: Trend of key South African indicators ......................................................................... 51 Figure 19: Inflation and interest rates .......................................................................................... 53 Figure 20: Gross and net loan debt, as % of GDP ....................................................................... 55 Figure 21: Government current expenditure, capital expenditure, SOC investment, and budget balance, as % of GDP ................................................................................................................. 56 List of Tables Table 1: Economic performance of selected upper-middle income countries ................................ 6 Table 2: Manufacturing performance: selected sectors ................................................................. 8 Table 3: Services sector performance ........................................................................................... 9 Table 4: Summary of control of JSE, by market capitalisation (%)............................................... 21 Table 5: South African OEM manufacturing sales and associated import and local content values (all Rand billions) ........................................................................................................................ 33 Foreword Foreword This study of structural transformation in South Africa is a necessary and exceedingly timely contribution to the agenda for reindustrialisation. All the evidence points to the fact that inclusive growth requires changes in the economic structure, and shifts from low to high productivity sectors alongside upgrading within sectors. Growing diversified manufacturing is at the heart of these changes. The study, and the three industry papers on which it draws, critically assesses the record in South Africa over the past 24 years. The findings make for hard reading. The industrial structure of South Africa has changed remarkably little, especially in the context of major global change. Indeed, there has been a hollowing out of industrial capabilities, which can be characterised as premature deindustrialisation. The analysis points to a combination of factors for why this is so. In particular, we need to recognise the fragility of the growth during the commodities boom of the 2000s and the need to manage natural resources earnings more effectively. This includes appropriate macroeconomic policies to avoid overvaluation of the exchange rate and consistent with sustained higher levels of public and private investment. The study’s critique includes the role of industrial policy. It points to the continued legacy of support for upstream industries, and the relative ineffectiveness of interventions to alter the balance towards downstream diversified activities. Moreover, the fragmentation of the state and lobbying by incumbent interests has undermined co-ordinated policies for industrialisation. The high levels of concentration in the economy have also not been effectively addressed. A very few large firms control economic activity in most sectors and, in general, have low levels of investment notwithstanding ongoing strong profitability. The importance of international institutional owners of these firms has grown dramatically alongside poor investment levels in expanded capacity. Black industrialists remain conspicuous by their near absence. There is no room to be defensive if we are to make the changes necessary. The fourth industrial revolution, now upon us, makes it even more critical that we focus single-mindedly on investing in our own productive capabilities and those across the Southern African Development Community. The economy must be opened-up to black entrepreneurs. South Africa is determined to play a lead role in concrete initiatives to build strong regional value chains and institutions of industrial policy in order to drive a new industrial development path. I welcome the Industrial Development Think Tank, housed at the University of Johannesburg, as part of the network of institutions working on industrial
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