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Distributed Generation and Demand Study – West Midlands Licence Area | 1 Distributed generation and demand study Technology growth scenarios to 2030 West Midlands licence area Published January 2018 Produced July 2017 Version – Final This report was produced for Western Power Distribution Issue date January 2018 (Produced July 2017) Version Final 2 Written by: Hazel Williams, Johnny Gowdy, Merlin Hyman and Joel Venn Approved by: Johnny Gowdy, Director Regen, The Innovation Centre, Rennes Drive, Exeter, EX4 4RN T +44 (0)1392 494399 E [email protected] www.regensw.co.uk Registered in England No: 04554636 All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or published in any way (including online) without the prior permission of Regen SW Distributed generation and demand study – West Midlands licence area | 1 Acronym list Acronym Definition ADBA Anaerobic Digestion & Bioresources Association AONB Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty BEV Battery Electric Vehicle CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbines CCC Committee on Climate Change CfD Contract for Difference CHP Combined Heat and Power DNO Distribution Network Operator DSR Demand Side Response Duos Distribution Use of System EFR Enhanced Frequency Response EfW Energy from Waste EPN Eastern Power Networks ERF Energy Recovery Facility ESA Electricity Supply Area EV Electric Vehicle FFR Firm Frequency Response FIT Feed in Tariff GIS Geographic Information System LCOE Levelised cost of electricity NOx Nitrogen Oxides PHEV Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle PPA Power Purchase Agreement PPP Public–Private Partnership R&D Research and Development RDF Refuse-derived fuel RHI Renewable Heat Incentive RO Renewables Obligation SAC Special Area of Conservation SRF Solid Recovered Fuel SSSI Site of Special Scientific Interest STOR Short Term Operating Reserve TDR Transmission Demand Residual ToUT Time of Use Tariff WMS Written Ministerial Statement Distributed generation and demand study – West Midlands licence area | 2 Table of contents Section 1 - Introduction and Methodology 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 7 “A revolution in the provision of our energy” ................................................................................................. 7 Implications for Western Power Distribution ................................................................................................. 7 Building a case for strategic network reinforcement .................................................................................... 10 2 Methodology ............................................................................................................................ 12 Objectives and output ................................................................................................................................... 12 Assessment scope ......................................................................................................................................... 12 Summary of methodology............................................................................................................................. 15 The scenarios ................................................................................................................................................ 16 Section 2- Electricity generation technologies growth scenarios 3 Electricity generation technology growth scenarios ................................................................ 20 UK trends in renewable electricity deployment ........................................................................................... 20 Key factors having an influence .................................................................................................................... 21 Baseline in the West Midlands ...................................................................................................................... 23 4 Onshore wind power ................................................................................................................ 26 Baseline: onshore wind growth to 2016 ....................................................................................................... 26 Pipeline: onshore wind, 2017 to 2020 .......................................................................................................... 28 Regen’s market insights: onshore wind ........................................................................................................ 28 Resource assessment: onshore wind potential ............................................................................................ 31 Scenarios: onshore wind, 2020 to 2030 ........................................................................................................ 32 Scenario results: onshore wind ..................................................................................................................... 34 Geographic distribution of the scenarios: onshore wind .............................................................................. 35 5 Solar .......................................................................................................................................... 36 Baseline: solar PV growth to 2016 ................................................................................................................ 36 Pipeline: solar PV........................................................................................................................................... 39 Regen’s market insights: solar PV ................................................................................................................. 39 Scenarios: solar PV, 2017 to 2030 ................................................................................................................. 42 Scenario results: solar PV .............................................................................................................................. 44 Geographic distribution ................................................................................................................................ 45 Geographic distribution of scenarios: solar PV ............................................................................................. 49 6 Anaerobic digestion .................................................................................................................. 51 Baseline: anaerobic growth to 2017 ............................................................................................................. 51 Pipeline: anaerobic digestion, 2016 to 2017 ................................................................................................. 52 Regen’s market insights: anaerobic digestion............................................................................................... 52 Scenarios: anaerobic digestion, 2017 to 2030 .............................................................................................. 54 Scenario results: anaerobic digestion ........................................................................................................... 56 Geographic distribution of the anaerobic digestion scenarios ..................................................................... 57 Distributed generation and demand study – West Midlands licence area | 3 7 Hydropower .............................................................................................................................. 58 Baseline: hydropower growth to 2017 ......................................................................................................... 58 Pipeline: hydropower, 2017 to 2020............................................................................................................. 58 Regen’s market insights: hydropower .......................................................................................................... 59 Scenarios: hydropower, 2020 to 2030 .......................................................................................................... 59 Geographic distribution of the scenarios: hydropower ................................................................................ 61 8 Energy from waste .................................................................................................................... 63 Baseline: energy from waste growth to 2017 ............................................................................................... 63 Pipeline: energy from waste, 2016 to 2020 .................................................................................................. 63 Regen’s market insights: energy from waste ................................................................................................ 63 Resource assessment: energy from waste .................................................................................................... 67 Scenarios: energy from waste, 2020 to 2030 ................................................................................................ 67 Scenario results: energy from waste ............................................................................................................. 67 9 Diesel and gas generation technologies ................................................................................... 70 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 70 Growth of diesel generators, gas CHP and
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