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The RSPB's 2050 Energy Vision

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The RSPB's 2050 Energy Vision Section heading The RSPB’s 2050 energy vision Meeting the UK’s climate targets in harmony with nature Technical report The RSPB’s vision for the UK’s energy future 3 Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................. 3 Authors .................................................................................................................................................. 11 Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................... 11 List of abbreviations .............................................................................................................................. 12 List of figures and tables ....................................................................................................................... 15 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 17 1.1 Background ....................................................................................................................................... 17 1.2 Aims and scope ................................................................................................................................. 18 1.3 Limitations to the analysis ................................................................................................................ 19 1.4 Structure of the report ...................................................................................................................... 21 2. Approach to analysis ......................................................................................................................... 22 2.1 Ecological risk classification of renewable energy technologies ...................................................... 22 2.2 Assessing deployment potential of renewable energy technologies ............................................... 24 2.3 Modelling energy scenarios for 2050 ............................................................................................... 26 3.1 High ecological risk renewable energy technologies ........................................................................ 30 3.2 Medium ecological risk renewable energy technologies .................................................................. 32 3.3 Low ecological risk renewable energy technologies ......................................................................... 55 3.4 Other low carbon technologies and approaches to reducing energy sector emissions ................... 65 4. Low ecological risk 2050 energy scenarios ....................................................................................... 73 4.1 Developing the low ecological risk (LER) scenarios .......................................................................... 73 4.2 Renewable energy technologies in the LER scenarios ...................................................................... 77 4.3 Other low carbon technologies in the LER scenarios........................................................................ 84 4.4 Energy demand in the LER scenarios ................................................................................................ 86 5. Discussion .......................................................................................................................................... 94 5.1 Overview of the LER scenarios .......................................................................................................... 94 5.2 Conclusions ..................................................................................................................................... 100 6. Policy recommendations................................................................................................................. 106 References .......................................................................................................................................... 112 Annex 1. Spatial Analysis of Medium Risk Renewable Energy Technologies ..................................... 130 1 A1.1 Assessing the future capacity of medium ecological risk technologies........................................ 130 A1.2 Opportunity Mapping ................................................................................................................... 134 A1.3 Constraints Mapping .................................................................................................................... 136 A1.4 Ecological sensitivity mapping ...................................................................................................... 141 A1.5 Spatial analysis results .................................................................................................................. 158 A1.6 Discussion of spatial analysis results ............................................................................................ 164 2 Executive Summary Why energy matters to the RSPB The way that we currently generate and use energy in the UK is not sustainable and is driving us towards dangerous climate change – one of the greatest long-term threats to wildlife. The UK has started to decarbonise its energy supply, but has a long way to go and must make this transition in a way that avoids harming wildlife. Poorly-planned energy infrastructure can seriously harm wildlife, adding to existing pressures, including those caused by climate change. Putting nature in the “energy trilemma” We need a system that delivers environmentally sustainable, secure and affordable energy – the “energy trilemma”. However, the trilemma as it currently stands tends to equate environmental sustainability solely with low carbon energy, overlooking ecological impacts. Planning our energy future requires us to take the natural environment into account. Our challenge in this report is to put nature firmly within the energy trilemma. Our approach: mapping energy futures In order to understand how the UK can decarbonise in harmony with nature, we have: Analysed ecological risks of all major renewable energy technologies. Mapped where technologies which require large areas of land or sea could be deployed at low ecological risk (see Figures 1 and 2). Conducted a literature review of key ecological risks of other renewable technologies. Using these results, estimated the energy generation potential of each technology. Used the DECC 2050 Pathways Calculator1 to develop three low ecological risk (LER) 2050 energy scenarios for the UK, balancing other elements of the energy trilemma. Step 1: Map where the energy resource is technically viable e.g. sufficient wind speed for wind turbines Step 2: Exclude areas with physical constraints that prevent deployment (e.g. buildings, roads) Step 3: Exclude areas where there are policy constraints to deployment (e.g. heritage designations) Step 4: Exclude areas of high and medium ecological sensitivity (e.g. Natura 2000 sites) Result: Indicative area where technology may potentially be located with low ecological risk Figure 1. Framework for assessing the deployment potential of renewable energy technologies within areas of high, medium and low/unknown ecological sensitivity (adapted from SQW Energy 2010) 1 A UK Government tool for developing energy scenarios: http://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk/#/home 3 We created maps for onshore wind, solar farms, bioenergy crops, offshore wind, wave and tidal stream. The full methodology and results have been peer-reviewed and published (see Gove et al 2016), and are also in the Annex of this report. Figure 2 shows maps produced for solar farms, as an example. Green areas in Map D indicate where solar farms could be sited with low ecological risk, based on current understanding of distribution of priority species and habitats. Maps are not intended for fine-scale use to identify sites, but provide a high-level indication of aggregate areas of land suitable for development. Figure 2. Indicative areas of (A) resource availability, (B) physical constraints, (C) policy constraints and (D) ecological sensitivity for solar farms in the UK 4 Results of the spatial analysis The spatial analysis indicates that up to 6,277 TWh/year of renewable energy could be generated with low ecological risk by the technologies assessed. The UK’s final energy consumption in 2014 was 1661 TWh (DECC 2015a), suggesting that approximately four times the UK’s current energy use could be generated from renewables by 2050, if carefully sited. This assumes no change to overall energy demand in 2050, meaning that this figure could be considerably higher if demand is reduced (although other considerations relating to the requirements of the overall energy system have to be considered). There is significant scope for the low ecological risk deployment of all technologies considered, especially onshore wind, floating wind and solar. The joint energy generation potential for onshore wind and solar is equivalent to roughly a quarter (23%) of the UK’s current energy consumption. Offshore wind could generate up to three and a half times the UK’s current energy consumption (up to 5,558 TWh/yr), though most suitable areas identified are far from shore, so would require floating turbines and may not be economically viable. Data on marine species distribution is limited, so figures could change as data and therefore understanding of ecological
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