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Gloucestershire Economic Needs Assessment

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Gloucestershire Economic Needs Assessment GL5078P Gloucestershire ENA For and on behalf of Cheltenham Borough Council Cotswold District Council Forest of Dean District Council Gloucester City Council Stroud District Council Tewkesbury Borough Council Gloucestershire Economic Needs Assessment Prepared by Strategic Planning Research Unit DLP Planning Ltd August 2020 1 08.19.GL5078PS.Gloucestershire ENA Final GL5078P Gloucestershire ENA Prepared by: Checked by: Approved by: Date: July 2020 Office: Bristol & Sheffield Strategic Planning Research Unit V1 Velocity Building Broad Quay House (6th Floor) 4 Abbey Court Ground Floor Prince Street Fraser Road Tenter Street Bristol Priory Business Park Sheffield BS1 4DJ Bedford S1 4BY MK44 3WH Tel: 01142 289190 Tel: 01179 058850 Tel: 01234 832740 DLP Consulting Group disclaims any responsibility to the client and others in respect of matters outside the scope of this report. This report has been prepared with reasonable skill, care and diligence. This report is confidential to the client and DLP Planning Ltd accepts no responsibility of whatsoever nature to third parties to whom this report or any part thereof is made known. Any such party relies upon the report at their own risk. 2 08.19.GL5078PS.Gloucestershire ENA Final GL5078P Gloucestershire ENA CONTENTS PAGE 0.0 Executive Summary .......................................................................................................... 6 1.0 Introduction...................................................................................................................... 19 a) National Planning Policy Framework....................................................................... 20 b) Planning Practice Guidance .................................................................................... 21 2.0 Defining the Functional Economic Market Area .......................................................... 22 a) Existing Evidence and Previous Studies ................................................................. 22 b) Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEP) ....................................................................... 25 c) Transport Links ........................................................................................................ 26 d) Travel to Work Areas and Commuting Patterns...................................................... 29 e) Self-Containment Rates........................................................................................... 36 f) Housing Market Areas ............................................................................................. 38 g) Service Market for Consumers and Facilities.......................................................... 39 h) Conclusions.............................................................................................................. 42 3.0 Policy Review................................................................................................................... 44 a) National Strategies................................................................................................... 44 b) Regional Strategies.................................................................................................. 45 c) Economic Strategies in Gloucestershire ................................................................. 47 d) Current Local Planning Policy and Economic Strategies........................................ 52 4.0 Neighbouring Areas ........................................................................................................ 62 a) Swindon and Wiltshire LEP (SWLEP) ..................................................................... 62 b) West of England LEP ............................................................................................... 65 c) Worcestershire (WLEP) LEP (particularly South Worcestershire).......................... 67 d) The Marches LEP (particularly Herefordshire) ........................................................ 69 e) Coventry and Warwickshire LEP ............................................................................. 71 f) Oxfordshire LEP....................................................................................................... 72 g) Cardiff Capital Region.............................................................................................. 74 h) Summary of Economic Prospects in Neighbouring Areas ...................................... 75 5.0 Economic Baseline ......................................................................................................... 78 a) Business Demography............................................................................................. 88 b) Summary .................................................................................................................. 93 6.0 Commerical Property Market Trends ............................................................................ 94 a) Qualitative Assessment ........................................................................................... 94 b) Quantitative Assessment ....................................................................................... 104 c) Past Completions Trends ...................................................................................... 120 3 08.19.GL5078PS.Gloucestershire ENA Final GL5078P Gloucestershire ENA d) Summary ................................................................................................................ 122 7.0 Economic Forecasts ..................................................................................................... 124 a) Cambridge Econometrics (CE) .............................................................................. 125 b) Oxford Economics (OE) ......................................................................................... 125 c) Forecasts at a Gloucestershire Level .................................................................... 127 d) Forecasting Outputs for Cheltenham .................................................................... 129 e) Cotswold................................................................................................................. 131 f) Forest of Dean ....................................................................................................... 133 g) Gloucester .............................................................................................................. 135 h) Stroud ..................................................................................................................... 138 i) Tewkesbury ............................................................................................................ 140 j) Analysis of Forecasts ............................................................................................. 141 k) LEP Growth Sectors .............................................................................................. 142 l) Comparison with 2014 forecasts ........................................................................... 148 m) Summary ................................................................................................................ 154 8.0 Implications of Brexit .................................................................................................... 156 a) Export assumptions ............................................................................................... 157 b) Migration Assumptions........................................................................................... 157 c) Investment Assumptions........................................................................................ 158 d) Brexit Risk on Growth in Gloucestershire.............................................................. 159 e) Stakeholder Views on Brexit.................................................................................. 162 f) Summary ................................................................................................................ 162 9.0 Implications of COVID-19 ............................................................................................. 164 a) Impact on Employment .......................................................................................... 164 b) Risks to the Gloucestershire Economy ................................................................. 167 c) Sectoral Impact of Coronavirus ............................................................................. 172 d) Changes to working practices................................................................................ 179 e) Business Response to COVID .............................................................................. 184 f) LEP Response to COVID ...................................................................................... 188 g) Summary ................................................................................................................ 189 10.0 Labour Demand Scenarios........................................................................................... 190 a) Labour Demand Modelling..................................................................................... 194 b) Net Employment Land Needs................................................................................ 198 c) Net to Gross Needs ............................................................................................... 201 d) Flexibility Margin ...................................................................................................
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