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Gloucestershire Economic Needs Assessment

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GL5078P Gloucestershire ENA

For and on behalf of

Cheltenham Borough Council
Cotswold District Council
Forest of Dean District Council
Gloucester City Council Stroud District Council
Tewkesbury Borough Council

Gloucestershire Economic Needs Assessment

Prepared by
Strategic Planning Research Unit
DLP Planning Ltd

August 2020
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08.19.GL5078PS.Gloucestershire ENA Final

GL5078P Gloucestershire ENA

Prepared by: Checked by: Approved by:

  • Date: July 2020
  • Office: Bristol & Sheffield

Strategic Planning Research Unit V1 Velocity Building Ground Floor Tenter Street Sheffield
Broad Quay House (6th Floor) Prince Street Bristol
4 Abbey Court Fraser Road Priory Business Park

  • Bedford
  • BS1 4DJ

  • S1 4BY
  • MK44 3WH

  • Tel: 01142 289190
  • Tel: 01179 058850
  • Tel: 01234 832740

DLP Consulting Group disclaims any responsibility to the client and others in respect of matters outside the scope of this report. This report has been prepared with reasonable skill, care and diligence. This report is confidential to the client and DLP Planning Ltd accepts no responsibility of whatsoever nature to third parties to whom this report or any part thereof is made known. Any such party relies upon the report at their own risk.

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08.19.GL5078PS.Gloucestershire ENA Final

GL5078P Gloucestershire ENA

  • CONTENTS
  • PAGE

0.0 Executive Summary ..........................................................................................................6 1.0 Introduction......................................................................................................................19

a)

b)
National Planning Policy Framework.......................................................................20 Planning Practice Guidance ....................................................................................21

2.0 Defining the Functional Economic Market Area..........................................................22

a)

b) c)

d)

e) f)
Existing Evidence and Previous Studies.................................................................22 Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEP).......................................................................25 Transport Links ........................................................................................................26 Travel to Work Areas and Commuting Patterns......................................................29 Self-Containment Rates...........................................................................................36 Housing Market Areas .............................................................................................38 Service Market for Consumers and Facilities..........................................................39 Conclusions..............................................................................................................42

g)

h)

3.0 Policy Review...................................................................................................................44

a)

b) c)

d)

National Strategies...................................................................................................44 Regional Strategies..................................................................................................45 Economic Strategies in Gloucestershire .................................................................47 Current Local Planning Policy and Economic Strategies........................................52

4.0 Neighbouring Areas........................................................................................................62

a)

b)

c) d)

e)

f)
Swindon and Wiltshire LEP (SWLEP).....................................................................62 West of England LEP...............................................................................................65 Worcestershire (WLEP) LEP (particularly South Worcestershire)..........................67 The Marches LEP (particularly Herefordshire)........................................................69 Coventry and Warwickshire LEP.............................................................................71 Oxfordshire LEP.......................................................................................................72 Cardiff Capital Region..............................................................................................74 Summary of Economic Prospects in Neighbouring Areas ......................................75 g)

h)

5.0 Economic Baseline .........................................................................................................78

a)

b)

Business Demography.............................................................................................88 Summary..................................................................................................................93

6.0 Commerical Property Market Trends............................................................................94

a)

b)

c)
Qualitative Assessment ...........................................................................................94 Quantitative Assessment.......................................................................................104 Past Completions Trends ......................................................................................120
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08.19.GL5078PS.Gloucestershire ENA Final

GL5078P Gloucestershire ENA

d)

Summary................................................................................................................122

7.0 Economic Forecasts .....................................................................................................124

a)

b) c)

d)

e) f)

Cambridge Econometrics (CE)..............................................................................125 Oxford Economics (OE).........................................................................................125 Forecasts at a Gloucestershire Level....................................................................127 Forecasting Outputs for Cheltenham ....................................................................129 Cotswold.................................................................................................................131 Forest of Dean .......................................................................................................133 Gloucester..............................................................................................................135 Stroud.....................................................................................................................138 Tewkesbury............................................................................................................140 Analysis of Forecasts.............................................................................................141 LEP Growth Sectors ..............................................................................................142 Comparison with 2014 forecasts ...........................................................................148 g)

h) i)

j)

k) l)

m) Summary................................................................................................................154

8.0 Implications of Brexit....................................................................................................156

a)

b)

c) d)

e)

f)

Export assumptions ...............................................................................................157 Migration Assumptions...........................................................................................157 Investment Assumptions........................................................................................158 Brexit Risk on Growth in Gloucestershire..............................................................159 Stakeholder Views on Brexit..................................................................................162 Summary................................................................................................................162

9.0 Implications of COVID-19.............................................................................................164

a)

b) c)

d)

e) f)

Impact on Employment..........................................................................................164 Risks to the Gloucestershire Economy .................................................................167 Sectoral Impact of Coronavirus.............................................................................172 Changes to working practices................................................................................179 Business Response to COVID ..............................................................................184 LEP Response to COVID ......................................................................................188

10.0 Labour Demand Scenarios...........................................................................................190

a)

b)

c) d)

e)
Labour Demand Modelling.....................................................................................194 Net Employment Land Needs................................................................................198 Net to Gross Needs ...............................................................................................201 Flexibility Margin ....................................................................................................202 Total Employment Land Needs .............................................................................202
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08.19.GL5078PS.Gloucestershire ENA Final

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f)

Summary................................................................................................................203

11.0 Labour Supply Scenarios.............................................................................................205

a)

b) c)

d)

e)

Population Growth .................................................................................................205 Labour Supply Scenario – based on CE ...............................................................210 Labour Supply Scenario – based on OE...............................................................212 Labour Supply Growth Scenario............................................................................215 Summary................................................................................................................219

12.0 Comparison of Scenarios and Conclusions..............................................................220

a)

b)

Conclusions on Overall Employment Land Needs................................................221 Conclusions on Location and Mix..........................................................................226

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08.19.GL5078PS.Gloucestershire ENA Final

GL5078P Gloucestershire ENA

  • 0.0
  • EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • 0.1
  • DLP Planning were commissioned by the Gloucestershire Councils to undertake an

Economic Needs Assessment (ENA) for Gloucestershire.

0.2

0.3
This ENA provides a high-level assessment of the Gloucestershire economy, investigating the economic potential of Gloucestershire and identifying realistic yet aspirational growth scenarios based on economic forecasts and modelled scenarios for the delivery of employment land (B class uses).

The main tasks of this ENA include the following:
1. Identify the Functional Economic Market Area (FEMA) for planning purposes. 2. Provide a review of the context in neighbouring areas and the wider region. 3. Provide an assessment of the economic performance and characteristics and commercial property market.
4. Consider a range of scenarios for future economic growth in Gloucestershire and for each of the authorities, including scenarios aligning with the housing need identified in the Local Housing Needs Assessment (LHNA).
5. Identify future employment land requirements for Gloucestershire and for each of the authorities.

a)

Defining the Functional Economic Market Area (FEMA)

0.4 0.5
The analysis in this section considered a range of factors to identify the FEMA or FEMAs which cover the six Gloucestershire authorities.

The largest commercial market in Gloucestershire is along the M5 corridor which broadly

includes the majority of the county’s largest employment areas and the settlements of

Cheltenham, Gloucester, Tewkesbury, and Stroud. While the TTWAs show two distinct TTWAs focussed around Cheltenham and Gloucester the wide range of other evidence and further analysis of commuting flows suggests that there are significant overlaps between these areas and the data does not support separate FEMAs.

  • 0.6
  • A detailed analysis of commuting flows and self-containment rates shows that all of the

Gloucestershire authorities combined have a self-containment rate of 83%/84%. This represents a high level of self-containment, and is higher than any other combinations of these authorities. This provides a strong case for identifying a single FEMA covering the whole of Gloucestershire.

0.7

0.8
A similar analysis undertaken between each Gloucestershire authority and neighbouring areas outside of the county shows lower levels of self-containment with surrounding areas. This suggests that there is less justification for including any of the Gloucestershire authorities within an alternative FEMA.

Cotswold and Forest of Dean, as well as the more rural parts of Tewkesbury borough and Stroud district fall outside of the broad M5 corridor area. However, these are largely rural areas and the location of employment activities and other services is disaggregated across a number of smaller settlements but none of which are of a scale to be identified as a FEMA in their own right. The commuting flows and other data shows stronger linkages between these areas and the rest of Gloucestershire than to surrounding areas.

  • 0.9
  • As with any FEMA, there are overlaps with neighbouring areas particularly at the edges of

the county. In particular there are links identified between Cotswold and Swindon/Wiltshire;

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08.19.GL5078PS.Gloucestershire ENA Final

GL5078P Gloucestershire ENA

Forest of Dean and Herefordshire; Cheltenham and Tewkesbury and South Worcestershire; and Stroud with South Gloucestershire/West of England.

0.10 On the balance of evidence, and adopting a ‘best fit’ approach to local authority boundaries,

it is concluded that the six Gloucestershire authorities can be considered to form a single FEMA.

b)

Policy Review

0.11 This section provides an overview of the national, regional, and local policy context affecting economic growth and employment land issues. It considers the following:

• Building a Britain Fit for the Future • A Powerhouse for the West • South West and South East Wales Science and Innovation Audit • GFirst LEP Strategic Economic Plan 2018 • GFirst LEP Draft Local Industrial Strategy (LIS) • The Gloucestershire Growth Deal • The ‘Cyber Resilience Alliance’ - A Science and Innovation Audit • Glos 2050 study • Planning Framework for Gloucestershire County to 2050 • A range of current local planning policy and borough/ district economic strategies
0.12 At a Gloucestershire wide level, future growth is expected to particularly focus upon its existing industrial strengths including:

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