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Strengthening Community Resilience in Tanzania APRIL 6, 2017

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BASELINE EVALUATION OF: Katika Usalama Tunategemeana and Pamoja! Strengthening Community Resilience in Tanzania APRIL 6, 2017 Team Leader: Lead Researcher: Anthony Sarota 1 Table of Contents Acronyms ........................................................................................................................................................ 4 Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................................................... 5 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 6 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 9 1.1 Overview of the projects .................................................................................................................. 9 1.2 Objectives of the baseline evaluation report .................................................................................. 10 1.3 Scope of the Baseline Report ......................................................................................................... 10 1.4 Methodology and Limitations ........................................................................................................ 11 1.4.1 Survey Methodology ............................................................................................................... 11 1.4.2 Data protection and Quality Assurance .................................................................................. 12 1.4.3 Key Informant Interviews ....................................................................................................... 13 1.4.4 Focus Group Discussions ........................................................................................................ 13 1.4.5 Limitations .............................................................................................................................. 14 2 Political and Economic Context of Tanzania ........................................................................................ 14 3 Increasing conflict, nascent violent extremism in Tanzania, and efforts to counter it ......................... 16 3.1 Political Marginalization and Violent Extremism .......................................................................... 17 3.2 Economic Marginalization and Violent Extremism ....................................................................... 18 3.3 Religious Relations and Marginalization ....................................................................................... 19 4 Community Voices ............................................................................................................................... 19 4.1 Current Political context in Tanzania ............................................................................................. 21 4.2 CVE Landscape on Tanzania Mainland ......................................................................................... 25 4.2.1 Youth ability to express themselves and engage .................................................................... 25 4.2.2 Community Conflict Resolution Mechanisms and Skills ....................................................... 27 4.2.3 Existing Tensions and worries in Communities ..................................................................... 29 4.2.4 Existing Community Responses ............................................................................................. 32 4.2.5 Community Perceptions of needed support ............................................................................ 34 4.2.6 The Role of Media in CVE ..................................................................................................... 36 4.3 Katika Usalama Tunategemeana: A focus on Tanga ..................................................................... 37 5 Zanzibar ................................................................................................................................................ 40 5.1 Historical context in Zanzibar ........................................................................................................ 40 2 5.2 Political context in Zanzibar ........................................................................................................... 41 5.3 CVE Landscape in Zanzibar ........................................................................................................... 42 5.3.1 The Intermingling of Political and Religious Tensions .......................................................... 43 5.3.2 Youth Struggles in a Hyper Partisan Zanzibar ........................................................................ 45 5.3.3 How to operate in Zanzibar’s Current Context ....................................................................... 46 6 Challenges, Opportunities, Risks and Mitigation ................................................................................. 49 6.1 Challenges ...................................................................................................................................... 49 6.2 Opportunities .................................................................................................................................. 52 7 Indicator table ....................................................................................................................................... 54 8 Recommendations and Implications for Programing ........................................................................... 56 9 Appendices ............................................................................................................................................ 58 9.1 Appendix 1 Research tools ............................................................................................................. 58 9.2 Annex 3 Terms of Reference .......................................................................................................... 99 9.3 Annex 4 Map and Overview of Survey Areas ............................................................................. 104 9.3.1 Tanga ..................................................................................................................................... 104 9.3.2 Arusha ................................................................................................................................... 105 9.3.3 Dar es Salaam ........................................................................................................................ 105 9.3.4 Zanzibar ................................................................................................................................ 106 3 Acronyms CHADEMA – Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Party of democracy and development) CCM – Chama cha Mapinduzi (Party of the Revolution) CUF – Civic United Front CYD – Center for Youth Dialogue CVE – Countering Violent Extremism FDG – Focus Group Discussion GNU – Government of National Unity ILPI – International Law and Policy Institute KII – Key Informant Interview LHRC – Legal and Human Rights Centre SFCG– Search for Common Ground SMZ – Serikali ya Mapinduzi ya Zanzibar (Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar) SUZA – State University of Zanzibar TAYODEA – Tanga Youth Development Association ToC – Theory of Change ToR – Terms of Reference SzW – Sauti za Wananchi mobile phone based panel survey on Tanzania mainland 2012-to date UAMSHO – The Association of Islamic Mobilization and Propagation URT – United Republic of Tanzania VE – Violent Extremism WWz – Wasemavyo Wazanzibari mobile phone based panel survey on Zanzibar 2013-2016 4 Acknowledgements The authors would first like to acknowledge Search for Common Ground’s effort in assisting communities to build resilience in countering violent extremism. Projects aiming to build resilience to violent extremism in Tanzanian communities will not only ensure the country remains at peace, but will also contribute to social-political and economic development of the country. We also want to express our sincere thanks to Search team for trusting us and giving us the opportunity to conduct this baseline evaluation before the implementation of these projects in Tanzania. Likewise, we would like to thank the Search team, enumerators, and partners in Tanga and Arusha for their support during the course of the survey and data collection. The Search team’s contributions and comments during the production of this report were greatly appreciated. Specifically, we would like to thank SFCG Country Director Spes Manirakiza for her commitment and support. Thanks also goes to SFCG Tanzania staff members for their patience and welcome to our team. This truly made the data collection not only possible, but also successful. Special thanks to the Search team in East Africa, particularly Olivia Russell and Adrienne Lemon for being proactive and supporting us over the course of the baseline evaluation. On top of that, we thank Adrienne Lemon, Olivia Russell, and DM&E Officer for Search Tanzania, Castor Kalemera, for their constructive comments and contributions in the production of this report. Likewise, we wish to acknowledge Search partners in Tanga and Arusha who were very helpful. Their role, from the provision of important logistics, and connecting and coordinating a number of interviews with key informants and focus groups was appreciated.
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