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Population Dynamics and Climate Change: a Challenging Frontier for the Intrepid Demographer

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Population Dynamics and Climate Change: a Challenging Frontier for the Intrepid Demographer VIENNA YEARBOOK of PopulationResearch2015 Demographic differential vulnerability to climate-related disasters Guest Editors: Raya Muttarak and Leiwen Jiang Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2015 Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna Special issue on Demographic differential vulnerability to climate-related disasters Guest editors: Raya Muttarak and Leiwen Jiang Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2015 (Volume 13) Articles in this publication except the Introduction and Debate were subject to international peer review Editorial board Editor: Wolfgang Lutz Guest editors for this issue: Raya Muttarak and Leiwen Jiang Managing editor: Bilal Barakat Email: [email protected] Associate editors: Thomas Fent, Richard Gisser, Dimiter Philipov, Alexia Prskawetz, Sergei Scherbov and Toma´sˇ Sobotka Vienna Institute of Demography Austrian Academy of Sciences Welthandelsplatz 2/Level 2 1020 Vienna, Austria Fax: (+43 1) 313 36 90 7702 Website: http://epub.oeaw.ac.at/vypr Publisher Austrian Academy of Sciences Press Postgasse 7 1011 Vienna, Austria Tel: (+43 1) 515 81-3401-3406 Fax: (+43 1) 515 81-3400 Email: [email protected] Website: verlag.oeaw.ac.at Copy editing: Miriam Hils ISSN 1728-4414 ISBN 978-3-7001-8007-4 Cover: Adapted from Figure 5 in Ignacio, Cruz, Nardi and Henry, this volume. Colour versions of black-and-white print figures may be available in the online version. Authors for this volume Guillem BARDY, Ecole´ Polytechnique, Paris, France Thanyaporn CHANKRAJANG, Faculty of Economics, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand Jesus´ CRESPO CUARESMA, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OAW,¨ WU), Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna, Austria Grace T. CRUZ, Population Institute, University of the Philippines, Quezon City, Philippines Alex DE SHERBININ, Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), The Earth Institute, Columbia University, USA Anastasia J. GAGE, Department of Global Community Health and Behavioral Sciences, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, LA 70112, USA Adrian C. HAYES, School of Demography, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia Sabine HENRY, Department of Geography, University of Namur, Belgium Lori M. HUNTER, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado Boulder, USA J. Andres F. IGNACIO, Environmental Science for Social Change, 1/F Manila Observatory Bldg., Ateneo de Manila University Katipunan Road, Loyola Heights 1108 Quezon City, Philippines Leiwen JIANG, Asian Demographic Research Institute (ADRI), Shanghai University, Shanghai, China and National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA Samir KC, Asian Demographic Research Institute (ADRI), Shanghai University, Shanghai, China, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OAW,¨ WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria Elke LOICHINGER, College of Population Studies, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand Wolfgang LUTZ, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OAW,¨ WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), Vienna, Austria Peter MCDONALD, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, Acton ACT 0200, Australia Jacqueline MEIJER-IRONS, Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USA Jane MENKEN, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado Boulder, USA Raya MUTTARAK, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OAW,¨ WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria Fernando NARDI, Universita` per Stranieri di Perugia, Italy Xizhe PENG, Research Center for Population and Development Policies, Fudan University, Shanghai, China Erich STRIESSNIG, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OAW,¨ WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria Edward Jow-Ching TU, Senior consultant, Asian Demographics and Retired Faculty of Hong Kong University of Sciences and Technology, Hong Kong Emilio ZAGHENI, Department of Sociology and eScience Institute, University of Washington, Seattle, USA Zhongwei ZHAO, Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute, Australian National University, 9 Fellows Road, Acton ACT 2601, Australia Qin ZHU, Research Center for Population and Development Policies, Fudan University, Shanghai, China Yuan ZHU, Research School of Finance, Actuarial Studies & Statistics, College of Business and Economics, Australian National University, Australia Contents INTRODUCTION What can demographers contribute to the study of vulnerability? ........ 1 Raya Muttarak, Wolfgang Lutz and Leiwen Jiang Demographic Debate Why are so few demographers working on population and climate change? Engagement of demographers in environmental issues from a historical perspective ........................................................ 15 Peter McDonald The next best time for demographers to contribute to climate change research ........................................................... 19 Anastasia J. Gage Will climate change shift demography’s ‘normal science’? .............. 23 Lori M. Hunter and Jane Menken Barriers to involvement of Chinese demographers in climate change research ........................................................... 29 Xizhe Peng and Qin Zhu Population dynamics and climate change: A challenging frontier for the intrepid demographer .............................................. 33 Adrian C. Hayes Two statements on population and sustainable development produced by global scientific panels in 2002 and 2012 ............................ 37 Wolfgang Lutz Refereed Articles Differential mortality from extreme climate events Differential mortality patterns from hydro-meteorological disasters: Evidence from cause-of-death data by age and sex ..................... 47 Emilio Zagheni, Raya Muttarak and Erich Striessnig Daily mortality changes in Taiwan in the 1970s: An examination of the relationship between temperature and mortality ....................... 71 Zhongwei Zhao, Yuan Zhu and Edward Jow-Ching Tu Spatial patterns of social vulnerability to weather and climate extremes Assessing the effectiveness of a social vulnerability index in predicting heterogeneity in the impacts of natural hazards: Case study of the Tropical Storm Washi flood in the Philippines ......................... 91 J. Andres F. Ignacio, Grace T. Cruz, Fernando Nardi and Sabine Henry Social vulnerability to floods in two coastal megacities: New York City and Mumbai .......................................................131 Alex de Sherbinin and Guillem Bardy Differential risk perceptions and climate actions Who perceives what? A demographic analysis of subjective perception in rural Thailand ...................................................167 Jacqueline Meijer-Irons Who is concerned about and takes action on climate change? Gender and education divides among Thais ...................................193 Raya Muttarak and Thanyaporn Chankrajang Forecasting future societies’ vulnerability and adaptive capacity through the lens of human capital Future differential vulnerability to natural disasters by level of education . 221 Erich Striessnig and Elke Loichinger The demography of human development and climate change vulnerability: A projection exercise ...................................241 Jes´us Crespo Cuaresma and Wolfgang Lutz A four-dimensional population module for the analysis of future adaptive capacity in the Phang Nga province of Thailand ...............263 Elke Loichinger, Samir KC and Wolfgang Lutz Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2015 (Vol. 13), pp. 1–13 INTRODUCTION What can demographers contribute to the study of vulnerability? Raya Muttarak, Wolfgang Lutz and Leiwen Jiang∗ 1 Introduction The empirical analysis of the vulnerability of people to recent natural disasters is probably the best way to get an analytical handle on estimating the levels of human vulnerability that could result from the intensifying consequences of climate change in the future. This empirical approach is based on the underlying assumption that the vulnerability to past climate-related disasters, such as flooding, storms, and droughts, is isomorphic to the likely future vulnerability to climate change. While the risks and the exposure levels of human populations to extreme weather events may change across regions as climate systems shift, it is also evident that not all people who are living in the same region that is affected by a natural disaster are equally vulnerable to disaster-related mortality or injury. As is the case for other mortality risks, people tend to be differentially vulnerable according to their age, gender, level of education, occupation, and other social and economic variables. This demographic differential vulnerability has, however, not yet been thoroughly studied. This is where we believe that demographers can make an important contribution to the study of the consequences of climate change and this is the rationale
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