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Probabilistic Demographic Forecasts VIENNA YEARBOOK VIENNA YEARBOOK of Population OF Research2018 POPULATION RESEARCH 2018 POPULATION labour force en expert based uncertainty demographic change vir r market longevity egion ability t op britain c survival thailand onmen f immigration tr poland oun r amil heter w timal epr public erland end postponemene t low fertility orl y videnc oduction a try modelling selection eligion adaptation th ymen og ohort frica r switz d migration vulner c o schooling welfare t eur eneity viour policy de y c t en economy beha heal h period czech children labour growth lif empl e tr birth tions ta sheet v uman capital al and eastern eur ong term case study l w e da tials methodol el aph o socioec ten Vienna Institute of Demography g r xpectancy ttainmen ope erman opmen population india dynamic en risk women Austrian Academy of Sciences tion fl partnership a aphic metabolism onomic ecasting therhood er ogy w or mo f c migr Welthandelsplatz 2, Level 2 · 1020 Vienna · Austria tional a y ork ope union ompar education demogr ertility in e f diff sc gender r Website: www.viennayearbook.org y future etir australia educa uslim enario disaster cross country t age m in ital d emal change ertility childhood emen f terna a austria inequality ognition c f tiv old age global dbearing social networks ourse projection generation e t chil tional demog lif mortality measuring househol e c climate change e cy estimating health care lif vienna sustainability tion childlessness adulthood cohabitation cl productivity e national transfer accounts geburtenbarometer cupa demographic dividend oc 9 783700 183648 VOL. 16 VOL. ISBN 978-3-7001-8364-8 • ISSN 1728-4414 • Made in Europe “Broadening demographic horizons” Guest Editors: Alexia Prskawetz, Sergei Scherbov and A COLLABORATION OF IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU Warren Sanderson Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2018 Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna Special issue on Broadening demographic horizons Guest editors: Alexia Prskawetz, Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2018 (Volume 16) All Research Articles in this publication were subject to international peer review Editorial board Editor: Wolfgang Lutz Guest editors for this issue: Alexia Prskawetz, Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov Managing editor: Maria Winkler-Dworak Email: [email protected] Associate editors: Thomas Fent, Richard Gisser, Dimiter Philipov, Alexia Prskawetz, Sergei Scherbov and Toma´sˇ Sobotka Vienna Institute of Demography Austrian Academy of Sciences Welthandelsplatz 2/Level 2 1020 Vienna, Austria Fax: (+43 1) 313 36 90 7702 Website: www.viennayearbook.org Publisher Austrian Academy of Sciences Press Postgasse 7 1011 Vienna, Austria Tel: (+43 1) 515 81-3401-3406 Fax: (+43 1) 515 81-3400 Email: [email protected] Website: verlag.oeaw.ac.at Copy editing: Miriam Hils ISSN 1728-4414 ISBN 978-3-7001-8364-8 Cover: Word cloud from title words used in Wittgenstein Center publications (2011–2018) Made in Europe Authors for this volume Mohammad Jalal ABBASI-SHAVAZI, Department of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Jalal Al Ahmad Avenue, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran and Professorial Fellow, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Australia Nicholas BIDDLE, Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research and ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Australia Helge BRUNBORG, Previously with Statistics Norway William P. BUTZ, Senior Research Scholar, World Population Program, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria Graziella CASELLI, Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Statistical Sciences, Viale Regina Elena 295, 00161, Rome, Italy Joel E. COHEN, Laboratory of Populations, The Rockefeller University and Columbia University, 1230 York Avenue, New York, NY 10065, USA Additional affiliations: Earth Institute and Department of Statistics, Columbia University, USA; Department of Statistics, University of Chicago, USA Nicholas GAILEY, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OAW,¨ WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria Patrick GERLAND, United Nations Organization, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), Population Division, Two UN Plaza, Room DC2-1934, New York, NY 10017, USA Bernhard HAMMER, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, Vienna, Austria Gavin W. JONES, Emeritus Professor, Australian National University, ACT, Canberra, Australia Nico KEILMAN, Department of Economics, P.O. Box 1095 Blindern, N 0317 Oslo, Norway Bernhard KOPPEN,¨ University of Koblenz-Landau, Universitatsstraße¨ 1, 56070 Koblenz, Germany Rosa Maria LIPSI, Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), Italy Wolfgang LUTZ, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OAW,¨ WU), Vienna, Austria Marc LUY, Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, Welthandelsplatz 2/Level 2, 1020 Vienna, Austria James O’DONNELL, School of Demography, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Australia Alexia PRSKAWETZ, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OAW,WU),¨ Vienna Institute of Demography, Welthandelsplatz 2/Level 2, 1020 Vienna, Austria and TU Wien, Austria Francesco RAMPAZZO, University of Southampton, UK James RAYMER, School of Demography, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, 9 Fellows Road, Acton ACT 2601, Australia Philip REES, Professor Emeritus, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK Warren C. SANDERSON, Department of Economics, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook 11794-4384, New York, USA and Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OAW,WU),¨ International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria Sergei SCHERBOV, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OAW,WU),¨ International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria Yanlin SHI, Department of Actuarial Studies and Business Analytics, Macquarie University, Australia Maria Rita TESTA, Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, VID/OAW,¨ WU), Vienna Institute of Demography/Austrian Academy of Sciences, Welthandelsplatz 2, 1020 Vienna, Austria Frans WILLEKENS, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), Lange Houtstraat 19, NL-2511 CV The Hague, The Netherlands Meng XU, Department of Mathematics, Pace University, 41 Park Row, New York, NY 10038, USA Contents Introduction Broadening demographic horizons: demographic studies beyond age and gender ........................................................ 1 Alexia Prskawetz, Warren C. Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov Demographic Debate Are there principles of demography? A search for unifying (and hegemonic) themes ................................................. 9 William P. Butz Can Taylor’s law of fluctuation scaling and its relatives help demographers select more plausible multi-regional population forecasts? .15 Joel E. Cohen, Helge Brunborg and Meng Xu Probabilistic demographic forecasts .................................. 25 Nico Keilman Education and demography: a review of world population and human capital in the 21st century ........................................... 37 Philip Rees Research Articles Population dynamics and human capital in Muslim countries ........... 57 Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi and Gavin W. Jones Survival inequalities and redistribution in the Italian pension system ..... 83 Graziella Caselli and Rosa Maria Lipsi Does education matter? – economic dependency ratios by education .....111 Alexia Prskawetz and Bernhard Hammer Multistate projections of Australia’s Indigenous population: interacting area group and identification status change ............................135 James Raymer, Yanlin Shi, James O’Donnell, and Nicholas Biddle The end of population aging in high-income countries ..................163 Warren C. Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov and Patrick Gerland From intentions to births: paths of realisation in a multi-dimensional life course .........................................................177 Maria Rita Testa and Francesco Rampazzo Towards causal forecasting of international migration ..................199 Frans Willekens Data & Trends Summary of ‘Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries’ ............................221 Nicholas Gailey and Wolfgang Lutz ‘Express transitioning’ as a special case of the demographic transition ...235 Marc Luy and Bernhard K¨oppen Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2018 (Vol. 16), pp. 1–5 Broadening demographic horizons: demographic studies beyond age and gender Alexia Prskawetz, Warren C. Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov∗ Demography is generally defined as the scientific study of changes in the size and the structure of populations. While the meaning of population size is relatively clear, there are many different population structures that can be analyzed. Demography conventionally focuses on age and sex structures, and many of our core models are defined in terms of age and sex. But there are other important dimensions that are the subject of demographic analysis and modelling, such as place of residence, ethnicity/race, marital status, educational attainment, labor force participation status, and health status. Explicitly addressing the changing
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