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Letting Go Trump, America, •  and the World    HOW WASHINGTON GOT CHINA WRONG MARCH/APRIL 2018 / • / Letting Go Trump, America, • and the World FOREIGNAFFAIRS.COM C1_SUB_spot.indd All Pages 1/19/18 3:21 PM “Through GMAP I was able to pursue my master’s degree and join a network of accomplished international professionals, all while continuing to work full time.” –Paul Vamisiri, GMAP 2017 G3, Director of Operations, U.S. Army, Department of Defense G M A P GMAP CL ASS AT A G L ANCE (GMAP) % NON -US STU DENTS: 50 • One-year master’s degree in international affairs COUNTRIES REP RESE NTED: 20+ without interrupting your career or relocating AVERAGE A G E: 40 • Hybrid program structure of 3 two-week residencies and 33 weeks of internet-mediated learning 30% International Organizations/NGO • Diverse cohort of approximately 50 mid-career and senior-level professionals working around the globe in the public, private, and non-profit sectors 30% Public Sector 40% • Professional network of 9500 Fletcher alumni Private Sector (including 1000 GMAP alumni) fletcher.tufts.edu/GMAP CLASSES START JULY 30, 2018 fl[email protected] • +1.617.627.2429 AND JANUARY 7, 2019 Fletcher_Paul_FA_full_2018_v1.indd 1 1/18/18 7:52 PM Volume 97, Number 2 LETTING GO Trump’s Lucky Year 2 Why the Chaos Can’t Last Eliot A. Cohen The World After Trump 10 How the System Can Endure Jake Sullivan The Rise of Illiberal Hegemony 20 Trump’s Surprising Grand Strategy Barry R. Posen The Post-American World Economy 28 Globalization in the Trump Era Adam S. Posen COVER: Giving Up the High Ground 39 America’s Retreat on Human Rights PÂTÉ Sarah Margon March/April 2018 02_TOC.indd 1 1/18/18 10:31 PM STUDY WITH PURPOSE “It’s never been more important to study international relations at a school that understands that truth is elusive but real; that history cannot be rewritten to suit today’s preferences; that tradeos are inescapable facts of economic life; and that leaders are those who inspire, not those who inflame.” ELIOT COHEN, PhD Director of the Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies and Robert E. Osgood Professor of Strategic Studies NOW ACCEPTING APPLICATIONS FOR SUMMER COURSES AND CERTIFICATE PROGRAMS IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, AND MORE sais-jhu.edu/summer18 ESSAYS Just and Unjust Leaks 48 When to Spill Secrets Michael Walzer The China Reckoning 60 How Beijing De ed American Expectations Kurt M. Campbell and Ely Ratner Life in China’s Asia 71 What Regional Hegemony Would Look Like Jennifer Lind Green Giant 83 Renewable Energy and Chinese Power Amy Myers Jae How to Crack Down on Tax Havens 94 Start With the Banks Nicholas Shaxson Iran Among the Ruins 108 Tehran’s Advantage in a Turbulent Middle East Vali Nasr The President and the Bomb 119 Reforming the Nuclear Launch Process Richard K. Betts and Matthew C. Waxman ON FOREIGNAFFAIRS.COM Julia Gurganus on Volha Charnysh on Elizabeth Saunders Russia’s strategy in Poland’s right-wing on Donald Trump’s Afghanistan. extremists. on-the-job learning. March/April 2018 02_TOC_Blues.indd 3 1/19/18 6:38 PM 135672400_NUMAIR_ForeignAffairs_0320.indd 2 3/21/17 9:59 AM Mugabe’s Misrule 129 And How It Will Hold Zimbabwe Back Martin Meredith The Clash of Exceptionalisms 139 A New Fight Over an Old Idea Charles A. Kupchan REVIEWS & RESPONSES Stranger in Strange Lands 150 Joseph Conrad and the Dawn o Globalization Adam Hochschild Still Crazy After All These Years 156 America’s Long History o­ Political Delusion James A. Morone Future Fights 162 Planning for the Next War Stephen Peter Rosen Recent Books 168 “Foreign Aairs . will tolerate wide dierences of opinion. Its articles will not represent any consensus of beliefs. What is demanded of them is that they shall be competent and well informed, representing honest opinions seriously held and convincingly expressed. It does not accept responsibility for the views in any articles, signed or unsigned, which appear in its pages. What it does accept is the responsibility for giving them a chance to appear.” Archibald Cary Coolidge, Founding Editor Volume 1, Number 1 • September 1922 March/April 2018 02_TOC_Blues.indd 5 1/19/18 6:38 PM March/April 2018 · Volume 97, Number 2 Published by the Council on Foreign Relations ­ Editor, Peter G. Peterson Chair ­ - Executive Editor ­, Managing Editors , Deputy Web Editors ­­, ­ - Sta Editors ­ Assistant Editor Copy Chie Production Manager Contributing Artist Business Administrator Editorial Assistant Book Reviewers ­ . , ­ , ­. ­, . , ­, ­, ­ , ­ . , ­ , Interim Publisher Circulation Operations Director Circulation Marketing Director ­­ Advertising Director Senior Manager, Advertising Accounts and Operations Senior Manager, Events and Business Development ­ Marketing Associate ­ Publishing Associate, Circulation Publishing Associate, Promotions Publishing Associate, Advertising ­ Director, Digital Development . Digital Analytics Manager Deputy Director, Digital Development Senior Web Developer Front End Web Developer ­ Quality Assurance Manager Circulation Services ­ , , Media Relations Board of Advisers Chair . , . , . , ­ ­ ­, , . , , , . , ­ , . , . , . , ­ , , . , . , . , ­ . : Foreign A airs ForeignA airs.com/services 58 E. 68th Street, New York, NY 10065 ¡: §®¯: Call Edward Walsh at 212-434-9527 or visit 800-829-5539 U.S./Canada www.foreigna airs.com/advertising 813-910-3608 All other countries ³ : ForeignA airs.com ¦§: service@ForeignA airs.customersvc.com ³: ForeignA airs.com/newsletters ¦§: P.O. Box 60001, Tampa, FL, 33662-0001 ´§µ: Facebook.com/ForeignA airs ®: The contents o Foreign A airs are copyrighted. No part o the magazine may be reproduced, hosted or distributed in any form or by any means without prior written permission from Foreign A airs. To obtain permission, visit ForeignA airs.com/about-us Foreign A airs is a member o the Alliance for Audited Media and the Association o¶ Magazine Media. GST Number 127686483RT Canada Post Customer #4015177 Publication #40035310 02_TOC.indd 6 1/18/18 10:31 PM CONTRIBUTORS In 2011, JAKE SULLIVAN became the youngest-ever director o policy planning at the U.S. State Department. The next year, the Obama administration sent him to Oman for the rst o many top-secret meetings that would lay the foundation for the Iran nuclear deal. A former adviser to both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, Sullivan is now a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for Interna- tional Peace and a visiting lecturer at Yale. In “The World After Trump” (page 10), he argues that the liberal international order is more resilient than it appears. In 1998, after graduating from college, SARAH MARGON moved to Budapest, where she worked with refugees from the war in Kosovo. She went on to work at the Open Society Institute, Oxfam America, and the Center for American Progress and served as a foreign policy adviser to Democratic Senator Russ Feingold o Wisconsin. Margon is currently the Washington director for Human Rights Watch. In “Giving Up the High Ground” (page 39), she argues that the Trump administration is accelerating a global decline in the respect for human rights. One o the United States’ preeminent political philosophers, MICHAEL WALZER has focused his work on the importance o social context for conceptions o justice and the practical implications o moral philosophy. His 1977 book, Just and Unjust Wars, examined the moral basis for war and the ethical limitations that apply to those who wage it. A professor emeritus at the Institute for Advanced Study, Walzer explores the distinctions between the right and the wrong kinds o whistle-blowing in “Just and Unjust Leaks” (page 48). ADAM HOCHSCHILD has spent his career in search o instances when, as he once put it, “people felt a moral imperative to confront evil.” He has written about South African race relations, survivors o the Soviet gulag, British antislavery activists, conscientious objectors to World War I, and Americans who volunteered to ght in the Spanish Civil War. His 1998 book, King Leopold’s Ghost, which detailed Belgian colonialism in the Congo, won the Mark Lynton History Prize. In “Stranger in Strange Lands” (page 150), Hochschild examines the life and work o Joseph Conrad. 02_TOC_Blues.indd 7 1/19/18 6:39 PM LETTING GO obody really knew what to Jake Sullivan examines the surprising expect when Donald Trump resilience o the liberal international order, Nbecame U.S. president. Would which has managed to take a licking and he disrupt the status quo or maintain it? keep on ticking—so far. Other countries Blow himsel up or escape unscathed? appreciate what the United States created, One year in, the answer is yes. even i Washington doesn’t. I you squint, U.S. foreign policy Barry Posen suggests that consciously during the Trump era can seem almost or not, the Trump administration is normal. But the closer you look, the more following a new grand strategy, one o you see it being hollowed out, with the illiberal hegemony. It has “pared or forms and structures still in place but the abandoned many o the pillars o liberal substance and purpose draining away. internationalism” but “still seeks to retain The best analogy might be to health the United States’ superior economic and care—something else the administration military capability and role as security came in hell-bent on overhauling, only arbiter for most regions o the world.” to nd it more dicult than expected. Adam Posen sees the global economy
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