Milngavie Redoubling Technical Report June 2018.Pdf
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AllanRail Milngavie Branch Redoubling Reference 18/004 Client – Ross Greer Green Party MSP for the West Scotland Region David Prescott June 2018 AllanRail Contents Executive Summary 1 History 2 The Problem(s) 3 Possible Causes of poor punctuality 4 Train Operations 5 Potential Solutions 5 Issues to be considered with possible redoubling 7 Benefits from possible redoubling 8 Potential Allander Station 9 Summary 10 The Next Steps Appendices Allan Rail Solutions Ltd June 2018 AllanRail Executive Summary Milngavie has the worst performance in terms of the percentage of trains arriving on time (28.3%) of all of the station published by ScotRail. Dalmuir where some of the services are integrated with Milngavie is 45.9%, but the terminating services, which are those that are integrated with the Milngavie services, are only marginally better at 28.5%. Whilst the causes of this poor performance are likely to be widespread and complex the single lead junction at Westerton and two single track sections on the Milngavie branch result in further reactionary delay and amplify any initial late running into greater lateness and over a wider range of trains. Removal of the single lead junction at Westerton will assist with improving network performance, and would require over a third of the single track section to Bearsden to be redoubled. This suggests that it would be more cost effective and efficient to extend the redoubling to Bearsden, the extra length plain line removing two sets of points and more complex signalling. It would offer greater flexibility in timetabling which could be valuable in re-planning the Glasgow North Electric services to improve performance. Redoubling the Hillfoot to Milngavie section would further increase the flexibility in timetabling, virtually removing the considerable constrains that the current Milngavie branch infrastructure inflicts on the network, as well as giving some performance benefits. The total length of redoubling of the two sections (two miles) represents only 5% of the length of railway that has (or is) being redoubled in Scotland over the last ten years. There appear to be few impediments to the redoubling of the Milngavie branch, in contrast to the current Aberdeen (Kittybrewster) to Inverurie redoubling.. The importance of the Milngavie branch in delivering improved performance has been recognised by the ScotRail Alliance, is specifically noted in the Donovan Report on train punctuality and the case for doing something has been broadly accepted. Allander station cannot be delivered without the redoubling of the whole of the Milngavie branch. Allan Rail Solutions Ltd June 2018 AllanRail 1 History 1.1 The early years of the Milngavie branch The Milngavie branch from Westerton was opened in 1863 as a single line by the locally promoted Glasgow & Milngavie Junction Railway and was taken over by the growing North British Railway in 1873 to become part of their wider Glasgow suburban rail network. It was doubled in 1900. There was considerable freight traffic as well as the growing residential travel, with Hillfoot station opened with the doubling in 1900 to join Bearsden as the intermediate stations. The line became part of the LNER in 1923 and then BR’s Scottish Region in 1948. It was electrified in 1960 (originally at 6.25kv AC) as part of the Glasgow North Suburban network based on Queen Street Low Level. It now operates at the standard 25kv AC electric supply. (This may suggest that overhead line wire clearances at overbridges are tight.) 1.2 More recent changes The line was partially singled in 1990 as part of the Yoker re-signalling scheme which abolished the local signal boxes at Westerton (Junction) and Milngavie. The branch was reduced to single track with a long passing loop (or section of double track) in the middle between and including Bearsden and Hillfoot stations. This was part of the standard form of cost saving employed by the cash constrained Regional Railways, part of British Rail, when a number of other lines were singled and double junctions replaced with “single lead” junctions. It was carried out during the period when Strathclyde Passenger Transport Executive (SPT) was the funder of local rail services. (The Helensburgh Central line was also singled as part of the Yoker resignalling and simplified “single lead” junctions introduced at Newton, Bellgrove and Craigendoran for Helensburgh. The Balloch branch had been singled significantly earlier, in the 1970s. At this time the Milngavie branch train service operated a half hourly frequency shuttle between Milngavie and Springburn, which was well within the capability of the infrastructure. This service pattern was introduced with electrification in 1960 and continued until the service changes in the mid-2000s as part of the Larkhall – Milngavie upgrade. 1.3 Service Enhancements The Argyle line opened in 1979, linking the Queen Street electrified network with the Lanarkshire electrified network but had little impact on the nature or performance of the Milngavie train services. However since the 1990 singling, the railway network in the Glasgow area has been substantially altered and the train services radically changed. In December 2005 the Larkhall branch opened which resulted in two extra trains on the Argyle line to give a 15 minute frequency between Glasgow and Hamilton and at the same time the service frequency to Milngavie was doubled to every 15 minutes. This represents 100% use of the branch infrastructure capacity. (This applies until mid- evening, when the service is reduced to half hourly.) In December 2010 the Airdrie – Bathgate line was opened and what had been a local shuttle service from Milngavie into Glasgow now became a long distance service to Edinburgh. Allan Rail Solutions Ltd June 2018 AllanRail 1.4 Current usage The Milngavie branch is not a small and insignificant part of the ScotRail network as the passenger figures published by the Office of Rail and Road demonstrate: Difference Difference 16/17 16/17 Station 2014/5 2015/6 2016/7 compared compared with with 15/16 % 14/15 % Milngavie 998,354 992,202 966,286 -25,916 -2.61 -32,068 -3.21 Hillfoot 326,896 318,676 317,352 -1,324 -0.42 -9,544 -2.92 Bearsden 570,722 565,354 555,990 -9,364 -1.66 -14,732 -2.58 Westerton 784,490 794,600 794,094 -506 -0.06 9,604 1.22 Anniesland 1,133,042 1,154,430 1,218,022 63,592 5.51 84,980 7.50 The total use of the three stations on the Milngavie branch in 2016/7 was 1,839,628. This represents almost 2% of the total ScotRail journeys and is broadly equivalent to the use of Dundee station. Passenger numbers are falling, which is counter to the Scotland wide trend. Poor performance may be causing this effect. Allan Rail Solutions Ltd June 2018 AllanRail 2 The Problem(s) The Milngavie branch is the worst performing ScotRail route in terms of punctuality with only 28.3% of trains arriving on time – (known as Right time (RT) and up to 59 seconds after the publically advertised arrival time) and 79.2% arriving within 5 minutes (0-5). The punctuality at Dalmuir for terminating trains is nearly as bad as Milngavie with only 28.5% RT and 85.1% (0-5) with 73 trains daily. These terminating trains interwork with the services using the Milngavie branch. All trains calling at Dalmuir achieve 45.9% right time, suggesting that the through services perform a lot better than the terminating services. A Glasgow Area Network Map is provided in Appendix A. The bottom seven stations on the ScotRail network (below 40% Right Time) are shown below: Station % Right Time Arrivals % Within 5 minutes Carnoustie 38.1 83.2 Arbroath 37.8 65.5 Ardrossan Harbour 37.6 92.3 Paisley Canal 37.1 95.5 Girvan 36.5 92.1 Largs 29.1 88.6 Milngavie 28.3 79.2 The remaining Glasgow area terminal stations have RT figures ranging up to 71.5% RT (Neilston) with 28 trains a day. All performance figures quoted in this report are from ScotRail’s website performance page for 29 April 2018 to 26 May 2018, and refer to the previous 13 four weekly periods. The Right Time figures and the 0-5 minutes percentages applying to all trains calling (passing through and terminating), unless otherwise stated. Data can be found here: https://www.scotrail.co.uk/performance-and-reliability Allan Rail Solutions Ltd June 2018 AllanRail 3 Possible Causes of poor punctuality 3.1 Train Services The two services that operate on the Milngavie branch are: Milngavie to/from Edinburgh via Glasgow Queen Street Low Level, Airdrie and Bathgate Milngavie to Motherwell and Cumbernauld via Motherwell and from Larkhall via Glasgow Central Low Level (not an out and back service, but an asymmetric one, with the other west end terminal station being Dalmuir) Both services are complex and have their challenges, both to plan and to operate. All train service descriptions below are based on Monday - Friday inter-peak standard patterns and there are variations in the peaks, evenings, on Saturdays and Sundays: 3.2 Milngavie to/from Edinburgh This service is one half of the service over the Airdrie-Bathgate line (reopened in 2010), the other half being a Helensburgh Central to/from Edinburgh service. Additionally there is a Balloch to/from Airdrie service over the west end of the route. A Dumbarton Central to/from Cumbernauld via Yoker and Springburn service shares the section from Hyndland East Junction to Bellgrove, resulting in the section through Queen Street Low Level being used by eight trains an hour in each direction. At the Edinburgh end there is interaction with Edinburgh – Glasgow via Falkirk High (the Flagship E&G services) and Edinburgh – Dunblane services (and in the near future also Edinburgh – Glasgow via Cumbernauld services) between Newbridge Junction and Edinburgh Waverley station.