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Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2013 Q4

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Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2013 Q4 Quarterly Bulletin 2013 Q4 | Volume 53 No. 4 Quarterly Bulletin 2013 Q4 | Volume 53 No. 4 Contents Topical articles SME forbearance and its implications for monetary and financial stability 296 Box Methodology 299 Bringing down the Great Wall? Global implications of capital account liberalisation in China 304 Box Offshore RMB activity in the United Kingdom 308 Banknotes, local currencies and central bank objectives 317 Box Scottish and Northern Ireland banknotes 320 Box What is ‘legal tender’? 321 Banks’ disclosure and financial stability 326 Box Akerlof’s lemons 328 Box The construction of the indices 330 Understanding the MPC’s forecast performance since mid-2010 336 Box How does the MPC’s forecasting performance compare with external forecasters? 338 Box Statistical properties of the MPC’s forecasts 348 The financial position of British households: evidence from the 2013 NMG Consulting survey 351 Box Survey method 353 Box Household saving 354 What can company data tell us about financing and investment decisions? 361 Box QE, term premia and balance sheet restructuring 365 Box Characteristics of companies with access to capital markets 367 Tiering in CHAPS 371 Box Choosing a target level of tiering in the CHAPS network 375 Recent economic and financial developments Markets and operations 380 Box Liquidity insurance — developments in the Sterling Monetary Framework 382 Box Swap Execution Facilities 384 Box Additional Tier 1 (AT1) capital issuance 388 Reports The foreign exchange and over-the-counter interest rate derivatives market in the United Kingdom 394 Box BIS triennial survey definitional issues 396 Box OTC interest rate derivatives turnover in the United Kingdom 399 Box BIS triennial survey and the Foreign Exchange Joint Standing Committee survey 401 Qualitative easing: a new tool for the stabilisation of financial markets 405 Box John Flemming 406 Summaries of speeches and working papers Bank of England speeches 416 Appendices Contents of recent Quarterly Bulletins 422 Bank of England publications 424 The contents page, with links to the articles in PDF, is available at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/quarterlybulletin/default.aspx Author of articles can be contacted at [email protected] The speeches contained in the Bulletin can be found at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx Except where otherwise stated, the source of the data used in charts and tables is the Bank of England or the Office for National Statistics (ONS). All data, apart from financial markets data, are seasonally adjusted. Research work published by the Bank is intended to contribute to debate, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bank or members of the MPC, FPC or the PRA Board. Quarterly Bulletin Topical articles 295 Topical articles 296 Quarterly Bulletin 2013 Q4 SME forbearance and its implications for monetary and financial stability By Martin Arrowsmith and Martin Griffiths of the Bank’s Prudential Regulation Authority, Jeremy Franklin, Evan Wohlmann and Garry Young of the Bank’s Monetary Analysis Directorate and David Gregory of the Bank’s (1) Financial Stability Directorate. • This article presents the results of an investigation into the extent of loan forbearance in the SME sector and its implications for productivity and financial system resilience. • Around 6% of SME borrowers were estimated to be in receipt of some form of loan forbearance in March 2013. This accounted for around 14% of the major five UK banks’ exposure to this sector. • SME forbearance appears to account for only a small proportion of the weakness in aggregate UK productivity and also seems unlikely to threaten financial system resilience. Overview This article sets out the results of a Bank of England investigation into forbearance provided by major UK banks to Summary table Forbearance by UK lending sector small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and its Sector Major UK banks’ exposure in forbearance implications for monetary and financial stability. Household secured(a) 5%–8% Commercial real estate(b) 35% Forbearance by banks is said to occur when, outside of the Leveraged loans(c) 28% normal terms of business, a bank seeks to provide support to SME (excluding CRE lending)(d) 14% a borrower struggling to meet its obligations. This may range (a) Survey results as at June 2012. (b) Survey results as at June 2011. from ignoring a breach of a loan covenant to providing some (c) Survey results as at December 2011. form of payment relief. (d) Survey results as at March 2013. This study focuses on the SME sector and excludes CRE. It Forbearance can be helpful in providing assistance to estimates that around 6% of borrowers were in receipt of borrowers suffering from temporary problems. This may some form of loan forbearance. This represents around 14% have helped some viable businesses to survive the financial of the five major UK banks’ loan exposure to this sector. crisis. But it may also pose risks to monetary and financial Forbearance among SMEs also appears to be most significant stability. Support provided to firms who do not have a in the property-related industrial sectors, such as realistic chance of recovery may impede the allocation of construction and accommodation and food. resources to healthy firms and restrict productivity growth. Or banks may choose to employ forbearance rather than Overall, bank forbearance to SMEs appears to account for classify loans as non-performing, possibly increasing financial only a small proportion of the weakness in aggregate system fragility. UK productivity. Low interest rates are likely to have been more important in explaining higher firm survival rates over Previous surveys by the regulatory authorities revealed recent years, with results from this investigation highlighting forbearance to be most widespread in the commercial real vulnerabilities to a rise in interest rates if not accompanied by estate (CRE) sector (see summary table). This was a factor in an improvement in economic conditions. Current the 2013 FPC recommendation which led the PRA Board to provisioning and capital levels of the major UK banks against require some UK banks to improve their capital positions. SME forbearance seem broadly adequate, and therefore the Risks arising from forbearance in the CRE sector, as well as scale of this forbearance seems unlikely to threaten financial other sectors, continue to be monitored by the FPC and PRA. system resilience. (1) The authors would like to thank Gareth Anderson for his help in producing this article. Topical articles SME forbearance and its implications 297 This article sets out the results of a recent Bank of England unemployment, reducing the risk of erosion of the economy’s investigation into the extent of forbearance provided by the supply potential. major UK banks to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), defined here as companies with turnover below But there are also risks to monetary and financial stability £50 million, and draws out the implications for monetary arising from forbearance. Forbearance which is provided to stability, financial stability and bank regulation. businesses without a realistic chance of being viable in the future, and which supports their survival, may impede the Since the financial crisis, the rate of company failure has allocation of resources to healthy firms in the economy. remained surprisingly low and labour productivity unusually Furthermore, fragility could build up in the financial system weak, especially among SMEs.(1) SMEs are an important part of should banks choose to employ forbearance rather than the UK economy, contributing around 60% of total private classifying loans as non-performing.(7) sector employment and 50% of total nominal private sector turnover.(2) Indeed, forbearance may be one factor that could help to explain why productivity growth in the United Kingdom has Forbearance by banks has been suggested as one of the factors been so weak following the recession. In the second quarter of that might explain both the low rate of company failure and 2013, private sector output per worker was 8% below its weak productivity growth since 2008. This makes forbearance pre-crisis peak and 18% below the level that would be implied relevant for both the Monetary Policy Committee and the by its pre-crisis trend (Chart 1).(8) Labour productivity appears Financial Policy Committee (FPC). Forbearance is also to have been particularly weak among SMEs since the financial monitored by the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) in its crisis.(9) Forbearance by banks, as well as other factors regulatory role.(3) This study supplements previous surveys on including the low level of Bank Rate and forbearance by forbearance by the regulatory authorities which have covered HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) (as part of the household secured lending, leveraged loans and commercial ‘time-to-pay’ scheme), may help explain why the number of real estate (CRE) lending.(4) firms entering insolvency has been lower in the latest recession compared to the 1990s — despite the substantial fall The first section of this article outlines what forbearance is and in output.(10) The various channels through which forbearance why it can have important implications for the economy and may affect productivity growth are discussed in the third financial system. The following sections set out the key section of this article. findings on forbearance to the SME sector and discuss the implications of forbearance for productivity and financial Chart 1 UK private sector output per worker system resilience. A short explains some of the key video Index: 2007 = 100 topics covered in this article.(5) 105 What is forbearance? 100 Forbearance by a bank occurs when it seeks to provide a 95 measure of support to a customer struggling to meet its obligations. This may range from ignoring a breach of a loan 90 covenant, to giving the borrower more time to meet its loan obligations, to providing some form of active payment relief.
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