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World Bank Document DISCUSSION PAPER NUM B ER 12 DECEM B E R 2 0 1 0 DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE DISCUSSION PAPERS 1 Public Disclosure Authorized DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE Public Disclosure Authorized The Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Bangladesh Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R n U m B E R 1 2 d E c E m B E R 2 0 1 0 Economics of Ad A p t A t i o n t o c l i m A t E c h A n g E The Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Bangladesh Iqbal Alam Khan, Zulfiqar Ali, M Asaduzzaman and M Harunur Rashid Bhuyan Papers in this series are not formal publications of the World Bank. They are circulated to encourage thought and discussion. The use and citation of this paper should take this into account. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the World Bank. Copies are available from the Environment Department of the World Bank by calling 202-473-3641. © 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank 1818 H St., NW Washington, DC 20433 U.S.A. Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org/climatechange E-mail: [email protected] All rights reserved. December 2010 This paper is based upon work that has been commissioned by the World Bank as part of the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change study. The results reported in the paper are preliminary and subject to revision. The analysis, results, and views expressed in the paper are those of the authors alone and do not represent the position of the World Bank or any of its member countries. Papers in this series are not formal publications of the World Bank. They are circulated to encourage thought and discussion. Copies are available from the World Bank Environment Department by calling 202-473-3641. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown or any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptances of such boundaries. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applica- ble law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com Cover photo courtesy of Shehzad Noorani/World Bank. iii Table of ConTenTs AcRonUms And ABBREvAtions vi AcKnoWlEdgmEnts vii ExEcUtivE sUmmARy viii 1. INTRodUction And ovERviEW 1 Summary of EACC Project and the Social Component 1 Study Rationale and Approach 1 Conceptual Framework 2 Climate Change – Poverty Nexus 3 Key Areas of Inquiry 4 Asset and Livelihood Systems 4 Vulnerability and Climate Change 5 Policy and Institutional Framework for Climate Resilience 6 People in Places: Socio-Spatial Approaches to Adaptation 8 2. SOCIAl dimEnsions of climAtE chAngE in BAnglAdEsh 10 Expected Physical Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh 10 Flood 10 Drought 10 Sea Level Rise 11 Salinity Intrusion 11 Drainage Congestion 11 Coastal Erosion 12 Cyclones and Storm Surges 12 River Bank Erosion and Vulnerability of Charlands 12 National Planning for Climate Change: NAPA and other Strategies 12 Overview of Social Vulnerability in Bangladesh 13 Human Health 13 Gender Situation 14 iv t h E s o c i A l d i m E nsions of Ad A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n B A n g l A d E s h 3. REsEARch mETHODOLOGY 15 Research Strategy and Questions 15 Site Selection and Sampling 15 Methods: Tools Employed 15 4. FIEldWoRK REsULTS 18 Overview and Introduction to Areas of Investigation 18 Household Asset Base and Vulnerability 18 Asset Base: 18 Existing Livelihood Systems 26 Livelihood Practices: 26 Experience with Past Climate Variability and Hazards 29 Climatic Hazards: 29 Physical and Socio-economic Impacts: 33 Sector-Wise Impacts 36 Vulnerability in the Context of Study Hotspots 38 Cross-Cutting Observations: Coping Strategies versus Adaptation 49 Existing Coping Mechanisms 49 Key Conclusions from Fieldwork 54 Livelihoods and Climate Change Adaptation 54 Enhancing Future Adaptive Capacities: 62 Sharing Responsibility: 65 5. PARticipATORy scEnARio dEvElopmEnt (psd) WoRKshop REsULTS 66 PSD Workshops: Design Overview 66 Objectives of the PSD Workshop: 66 Overview of Results from Local and National Workshops 69 Prevailing Climatic Conditions and People’s Vision 2050 69 Climate Change Impacts, Existing Adaptation Practices and Future Options 69 Adaptation Pathways 71 Issues and Adaptation pathways: 71 Conclusions from the Workshop Track 74 6. CONCLUsions And REcommEndAtions 77 Major Findings and Recommendations 77 REfEREncEs 80 Tables table 1. Eight hotspots selected for EAcc – social study in Bangladesh. 20 table 3. Agricultural and non-agricultural Equipment 23 table 2. Asset owned by the surveyed households (multiple Responses) 23 table 4. Land ownership status (Agricultural land) of the surveyed households 25 d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p er s v table 5. Annual Average income of the household by sources 26 table 6. Households faced hazards in the last 20 years 33 table 7. Common Reasons for sudden loss of family income 37 table 8. Household losses due to natural hazards (percentages) 38 table 9. Source of information for scoring vulnerability indicators 40 table 10. Vulnerability Assessment of the Eight climate change-related hotspots of EAcc study. 41 table 11. Adaptation strategies of the surveyed households While face hazards 54 table 12. Determinants of Adaptive capacity 60 table 13. Livelihood capital Asset scores of hotspots 60 table 14. Criteria for interpreting livelihood capital asset scores 61 table 15. Adaptive capacity status of hotspots 61 matrices matrix 1. Existing coping mechanisms 50 matrix 2. Existing Adaptation practices 57 matrix 3. prevailing climatic conditions: 69 matrix 4. vision 2050 70 matrix 5. climate impacts and Adaptation measures 72 matrix 6. issues and Adaptation pathways 75 FIguRes figure 1. Pathways of livelihood, gender and food security impacts 3 figure 2. Administrative map of Bangladesh showing the Eight hotspots of EAcc study 19 figure 3. Combined livelihood Asset pentagons (All hotspots) 27 figure 4. Intensity and severity of hazard by year 32 figure 5. Relationships among different components Associated with vulnerability (Preston and Smith, 2009). 39 figure 6. PSD Workshop sites 67 figure 7. PSD Workshop process cycle 68 vi aCRONYMs AND ABBReVIaTIONS BIDS Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies EACC Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change FGD Focus Group Discussion MOEF Ministry of Environment and Forest NAPA National Adaptation Program of Action NGOs Nongovernmental Organizations NWMP National Water Management Plan NWP National Water Policy PSD Participatory Scenario Development UNFCCC Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change vii aCKNOWLEDGMENTs Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), where the study team was led by Zulfiqar Ali and comprised lead researcher Iqbal Alam Khan, M. Azaduzzaman, and M. The social component of the Economics of Adaptation Harunur Rashid Bhuyan. Support in methodology and to Climate Change (EACC) study (hereafter ‘study’) workshop design and for training of trainers for the was developed through the joint efforts of the World Participatory Scenario Development (PSD) workshops Bank Social Development (SDV) and Environment was provided by Livia Bizikova (IISD), Samantha Departments (ENV) and LCR, AFR, EAP, and SAR Boardley, Carol Murray (both ESSA), and Dale Rothman Regions of the World Bank; ESSA Technologies Ltd (IISD). A separate report is available summarizing this and the International Institute for Sustainable PSD work, along with a training of trainers manual at Development (IISD), Canada; and research institutions www.worldbank.org/eacc. in Bolivia, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, and Vietnam. The study was undertaken by a core team We could not have completed this work without the led by Robin Mearns and comprising Anne Kuriakose, continuous logistical support provided by Hawanty Carina Bachofen, Nilufar Ahmad and Minna Kononen Page (ENV), Grace Aguilar (ENV), Mustafa (all SDV). An overall synthesis report of all six country Pajazetovic, Carmen Martinel (both SDV) and Janet reports is available at www.worldbank.org/eacc. The Bably Halder (Dhaka Country Office). We gratefully study was designed and implemented in close collabora- acknowledge editorial services provided by John Felton tion with the team leader for the overall EACC study and production management provided by Danielle (Sergio Margulis), and Ana Bucher, Laurent Cretegny, Christophe (SDV) and Robert Reinecke. Urvashi Narain, Kiran Pandey, Robert Schneider (all ENV) and sector consultants. The Bangladesh country study has benefitted greatly from peer review comments and other feedback from The Bangladesh country study for the social component World Bank staff including Anna O’Donnell, Bhuvan was led by Anne Kuriakose and Nilufar Ahmad (SDV), Bhatnagar, and Fabio Pittaluga (all SASDS), and from under the overall guidance of Robin Mearns, in collabo- external peer reviewers including Katrina Brown, Jessica ration with the EACC country team leader Kiran Pandey Ayers and Ravi Kanbur. (ENV) and country office sector liaisons Shakil Ahmed Ferdausi (SASDI) and Khwaja Minnatullah (SASDI).
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