UNIVERSITY OF SARAJEVO FACULTY OF POLITICAL SCIENCE SARAJEVO RIGHT–WING POPULIST PARTIES IN THE EU – THE CASE STUDY OF HUNGARY FROM 2009 TO 2019 MASTER THESIS Mentor: Prof. dr. Kapidzic Damir Student: Leila Lizde Index:1013/ II – PIR Department: Politology Stream: International relations and diplomacy Sarajevo, September 2020 2 3 Contents 1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 6 2 THEORETICAL–METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH ................................................... 7 2.1 Research problem ........................................................................................................ 7 2.2 Research subject .......................................................................................................... 8 2.3 Research objectives ................................................................................................... 10 2.3.1 Scientific research objectives ............................................................................. 10 2.3.2 Social research objectives .................................................................................. 10 2.4 System hypothesis ..................................................................................................... 11 2.4.1 General Research Hypothesis ............................................................................. 11 2.4.2 Specific hypotheses of research ......................................................................... 11 2.5 Method of research .................................................................................................... 11 3 POLITICAL POPULISM IN EUROPE ........................................................................... 12 3.1 Populism a historical overview and definitions ......................................................... 12 3.1.1 Cas Mudde – the ideational approach to populism ........................................... 14 3.1.2 Kurt Weyland – a political–strategic approach .................................................. 15 3.1.3 Pierre Ostiguy – a socio–cultural approach ....................................................... 16 3.2 Populism in west, east, south and north Europe – present situation .......................... 19 4 RISE OF THE DEMOCRACY IN HUNGARY AND OVERVIEW OF ITS MOST PROMINENT POLITICAL PARTIES .................................................................................. 25 4.1 Key elements in Hungary’s past that shaped its democracy in 1990s ....................... 25 4.1.1 Treaty of Trianon .............................................................................................. 27 4.1.2 Hungary and Germany in the Second World War ............................................. 28 4.1.3 Hungary and SSSR ............................................................................................. 30 4.2 Hungary`s transition to democracy ............................................................................ 32 4.2.1 Political happenings in the last decade of 20th century ..................................... 35 4.2.2 Political happenings in the first decade of the 21th century............................... 44 5 CASE STUDY – HUNGARY UNDER FIDESZ, FROM 2010 TO 2019 .................... 48 6 EU AND HUNGARY RELATIONSHIP FROM 2009 TO THE 2019 ...................... 72 6.1 The second Orbán`s government 2010 – 2014 and EU ............................................ 72 6.2 The third Orbán`s government 2014 – 2018 and EU .............................................. 75 6.3 The forth Orban`s government 2018 – 2022 and EU ................................................ 77 7 FINAL REMARKS .......................................................................................................... 82 8 BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................................. 87 4 5 1 INTRODUCTION In the last 20 years we can see a steady growth in the support for the European populist parties, particularly far right populist parties. The recent analysis that has been done in 2018 by the Guardian has revealed that the populist parties have more than tripled their support in Europe, and from 1998 the number of Europeans ruled by a government with at least one populist in the cabinet has increased from 12.5 million to 170 million and in the most recent national elections, one in four votes cast was for the populist party. The aim of the master thesis is to explore the rise of right wing populism in EU with focus on a Hungary, the first country to have more than two–thirds of MEPs backing censure motion in 2018 when the European Parliament voted to pursue unprecedented disciplinary action against Hungary over alleged breaches of the EU's core values (respect for human dignity and human rights, freedom, democracy, equality and the rule of law) accusing the Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's government on the attacks on the media, minorities, and the rule of law. In the beginning of the paper the rise of populism, nation centric public opinion and strengthening of right wing parties in the former communist countries now members of EU will be briefly presented. Since the focus of the thesis is Hungary, the communist past, rise of democracy from 1989 – elections held in 1990s and 2000s, parties that emerged, EU aspirations and influence of media, FDIs and NGOs in early 2000s will be as well discussed. How a country that was once the star of the post–1989 transition in economic (They had the largest inward flow of foreign direct investment in post–communist Europe and one of the least chaotic economic transitions) but mostly an example of how democracy should be done (They were the first who rewrote constitution in order to embrace democratic values, had a free and fair elections from 1990s till 2010 with government alternation from right to left and most NGOs East–Central European headquarters in Budapest) could become the latest critique of the system. The central part of the thesis will be focusing on the last ten years of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's government, concluding with the December of 2019, in which the increasingly prominent authoritarian, anti–European and anti–liberal attitude of Hungarian government and its effect on its relationship with the EU institutions and the transformation of Hungarian society by strengthening of nationalistic movements, use of the communist legacy, nation– building, populism, anti–immigrant mindset, changing of immigration and FDI laws will be examined. In the last ten years these happenings in Hungary were mostly explained, compared to the other CEE countries, discussed and criticized in the research articles by non–Hungarian publishers like the Journal of Contemporary European Studies, European Journal of Political Research, Party Politics, Comparative Political Studies Amnesty International Netherlands, 6 East European Politics and Societies, Heinrich Böll Stiftung and the Friedrich–Ebert–Stiftung who talked about Hungary`s decline of democracy, (non)participative political culture, authoritarian government, social protection party elite loyalty, party systems, regime–building politics, euro skepticism. The final part will be dealing with the publications that are concerning Hungarian political situation, how not being able to have freedom of expression led to citizen's behavior seen in the last two years in anti–government demonstrations, about the anti–Orbán opposition parties, the emergence of new movements and can the fall of the right wing populist parties and Orbán’s regime can be expected and who are going to be the new players ( will there be any ) in the arena and what can we expect from Hungary in the future, its influence in Central Europe and EU. At the end of the thesis, hopefully, one question will probably be answered: are right wing populist parties’ threat to the countries stability and EU existence or not? 2 THEORETICAL–METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH 2.1 Research problem The twenty first century is a century in which information is two clicks away for the 60% of mobile phone users (HostingFacts, 2018). The one who controls it influences public opinion. Information as a tool is used by brands, companies, touristic agencies, actors, singers, but mostly by political parties. Since 1990s there is a global increase of countries that have democratically elected leaders. As a consequence of democratization and thanks to the globalization, political parties are now competing with each other in order to obtain and maintain the attention of voting force by influencing their source of information and using all available corresponding resources to get more attention locally but also worldwide. In Europe, nowadays, there is a distant and increasingly alien political class who lost touch with their traditional supporters, the mass of ordinary voters and is constantly losing its influence. This gap between the worldview of Europe's elites and the values of Europe's voters is used by the populist parties who use themes like immigration, opposition to Brussels governance, government measures connected to public expenditures to prove that existing political establishment is no longer representing the people. Many populist parties are not that easily classified using the political terminology of the 20th century. By the research done in 2015 by The Economist Intelligence Unit for the BBC’s Democracy day it represents a broader moral, social and cultural challenge to the old established parties,