INDEX
Welcome to Rio...... 3
Synthetic Program ...... 5
Sponsors - LACEA...... 6
Sponsors - LAMES...... 7
Chairs...... 8
LACEA Program Committee ...... 9
LAMES Scientific Committee...... 11
Local Committee ...... 12
General Information ...... 13
COMPLETE PROGRAM ...... 16
THURSDAY 20 November 2008…………………………………………………….. 16
FRIDAY 21 November 2008 ………………………………………………………… 43
SATURDAY 22 November 2008 ……………………………………………………. 65
SUNDAY 23 November 2008……………………………………………………...... 93
Index of Presenters ...... 106
Welcome to Rio!
After the successfull Mexico City and Bogotá Meetings, this year we’ll have also a jointed LACEA and LAMES that will continue to be realized at the same location with a unified registration.
We are happy to invite you to the Opening Ceremony to take place on November 20, at 8:15 a.m. in IMPA. We also invite all participants and accompanying people for the cocktail at 8:00 pm, in the main hall of IMPA in the same day.
As soon as you arrive, we ask you please to confirm your registration (check in) at the entrance hall and take the material of the meeting.
The conference is providing buses to transport participants from some chosen hotels to IMPA and back every conference’s days (November, 20-23). Please see the timetable in this program.
CONFERENCE DINNER:
The conference dinner will take place on November 21st (Friday) at 8:30 pm, in MAM - Museum of Modern Art - which is located in a beautiful site with panoramic view of the Guanabara Bay. We made special efforts in choosing the food that should have the Brazilian taste. Also there will be “chorinho” which is the Brazilian form of jazz, and some other Brazilian music. Everybody registered in the conference is welcome.
We want to thank all who have donated time and energy resource for this Congress. We also want to thank the members of the Program Committee and the Local Organizer José Heleno Faro. We especially want to thank the co-chairs of LAMES Humberto Moreira e Sergio Firpo and the co-chair of LACEA Luis Braido.
Thank you too to Marcia Waleria of FGV and Suely Lima and Pedro Faro of IMPA who did magnificent secretarial job.
Thank you for coming! We are very happy to have you here!
Aloísio Araujo, chair of LACEA-LAMES 2008.
3
Synthetic Program
Thursday 20 November Friday 21 November Saturday 22 November Sunday 23 November 08:00 - 08:15 Registration 08:15 - 08:30
08:30 - 08:45 Open Ceremony Sponsored and 08:45 - 09:30 Contributed Sessions Contributed Sessions 09:30 - 09:45 Sponsored and 09:45 - 10:00 Coffee Break Invited Lectures Contributed Sessions 10:00 - 10:15 Coffee Break 10:15 - 10:30 Invited Lectures 10:30 - 10:45 Coffee Break Coffee Break Sponsored and 10:45 - 11:00 Contributed Sessions 11:00 - 11:30 Sponsored and Invited and Sponsored 11:30 - 11:45 Contributed Sessions Lectures Invited Lectures and 11:45 - 12:00 Sessions 12:00 - 12:15 12:15 - 12:30 12:30 - 12:45 Lunch Closing Panel Lunch 12:45 - 13:00 Lunch 13:00 - 13:15
13:15 - 13:45 Invited Lectures and Sessions 13:45 - 14:00 Sponsored and Sponsored and 14:00 - 14:30 Contributed Sessions Contributed Sessions
14:30 - 14:45 Sponsored and Contributed Sessions 14:45 - 16:00 Invited Lectures and Invited and Sponsored 16:00 - 16:15 Sessions Lectures Coffee Break 16:15 - 16:30 Coffee Break Coffee Break Invited Lectures 16:30 - 17:15 Sponsored and Keynote Lecture 17:15 - 17:30 Contributed Sessions 17:30 - 18:00 Sponsored and Invited Lectures 18:00 - 18:30 Contributed Sessions 18:30 - 18:45 Plenary Session and 18:45 - 19:00 Plenary and Invited Presidential Address 19:00 - 19:30 Sessions Keynote Lecture 19:30 - 19:45 19:45 - 20:00 20:00 - 20:30* Cocktail Conference Dinner*
5 LACEA
sponsor
support
BIS
Banco Interamericano de Desenvolvimento
The World Bank LAMES
sponsor
support Chairs
Aloísio Araujo Chair of LACEA/LAMES, FGV/EPGE and IMPA
Humberto Moreira Co-Chair of LAMES, FGV/EPGE
Luis Braido Co-Chair of LACEA, FGV/EPGE
Sergio Firpo Co-Chair of LAMES, FGV/EESP
José Heleno Faro Local Chairman, IMPA
8 LACEA Program Committee
NAME AFFILIATION
Aloisio Araujo Chair, FGV/EPGE and IMPA Luis Braido Co-Chair, FGV/EPGE Mônica Viegas Andrade Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais Juliano J. Assunção Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-Rio Orazio Attanasio University College London Ricardo R.G. Avelino Universidade de São Paulo Ricardo Paes de Barros IPEA, Rio Francisco Buera Northwestern University Carlos Vianna de Carvalho Federal Reserve Bank, New York Tiago Cavalcanti University of Cambridge Rodrigo Cerda Pontifica Universidad Católica de Chile Pierre-André Chiappori Columbia University Carlos E. da Costa Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGE Pierre Dubois Université Toulouse Eduardo Engel Yale University Flávia L. Chein Feres Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais Daniel Ferreira London School of Economics Claudio Ferraz IPEA, Rio Francisco Ferreira World Bank Pedro C. Ferreira Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGE Paul J. Gertler University of California, Berkeley Maitreesh Ghatak London School of Economics Delfim Gomes-Neto Universidade de Vigo Gustavo Gonzaga Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-Rio Martin Grandes Center for Financial Stability and American University of Paris Bernardo Guimaraes London School of Economics Graciela Kaminsky George Washington University Sandra V. Lizarazo ITAM, México Eduardo A. Lora Inter-American Development Bank Dean Lueck University of Arizona Inter-American Development Bank Nora C. Lustig and George Washington University Gabriel A. Madeira Universidade de São Paulo IBMEC Business School, São Paulo Naercio A. Menezes-Filho and Universidade de São Paulo Marcelo C. Neri Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/IBRE Emanuel Ornellas London School of Economics Leonardo Rezende Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-Rio Mauro Rodrigues Jr Universidade de São Paulo Andrés Rodriguez-Clare Pennsylvania State University José L. Rossi Jr IBMEC Business School, São Paulo Esteban Rossi-Hansberg Princeton University 9 Jaime Saavedra World Bank Pablo J. Sanguinetti CAF and Universidad Torcuato Di Tella Rodrigo R. Soares Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-Rio André Portela Souza Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EESP Arilton Teixeira FUCAPE, Vitoria André Urani Instituto de Estudos do Trabalho e Sociedade Fernando A. Veloso IBMEC Business School, Rio Thierry A. Verdier Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques
10 LAMES Scientific Committee
NAME AFFILIATION
Aloisio Araujo Chair, FGV/EPGE and IMPA Humberto Moreira Co-Chair, FGV/EPGE Sergio Firpo Co-Chair, FGV/EESP Elvio Accinelli Universidad Autônoma de San Luis Potosi Caio de Almeida Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGE Heitor Almeida University of Illinois Paulo Barelli University of Rochester Alexandre Belloni Duke University Mauricio Bugarin IBMEC Business School, São Paulo Bernardo Blum University of Toronto Eugenio Bobenrieth Universidad de Concepción Marco Bonomo Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGE Vinicius Carrasco Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-Rio Andres Carvajal University of Warwick Ricardo Cavalcanti Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGE Luciano Costa University oif Illinois Paulo Coutinho Universidade de Brasília Francisco Cribari-Neto Universidade Federal de Pernambuco Flavio Cunha University of Pennsylvania Juan Dubra Universidad de Montevideo Emilio Espino Universidad Torcuato di Tella Eduardo Faingold Yale University José Fajardo IBMEC Business School, Rio Marcelo Fernandes Queen Mary University of London Raquel Fernandez New York University Armando Gomes Washington University Klaus Schmidt Hebbel Banco Central do Chile Hugo Hopenhayn University of California, Los Angeles Maria Carolina da Silva Leme Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EESP Luiz Renato Lima Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGE Ignacio Lobato ITAM, México Hedibert Freitas Lopes University of Chicago Wilfredo Maldonado Universidade Católica de Brasília Gustavo Manso Massachusetts Institute of Technology Alberto Martin Universitat Pompeu Fabra Cesar Martinelli ITAM, México Juan-Pablo Torres-Martinez Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-Rio V.Filipe Martins-da-Rocha Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGE Enlinson Henrique Carvalho de Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EESP Mattos Marcelo Medeiros Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-Rio Paulo Klinger Monteiro Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGE
11 Juan Pablo Montero Pontifica Universidad Católica de Chile Pablo Andrés Neumeyer Universidad Torcuato Di Tella Juan Pablo Nicolini Universidad Torcuato Di Tella Walter Novaes Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-Rio Sergio Parreiras University of North Carolina Aureo de Paula University of Pennsylvania Rodrigo Souza Peñaloza Universidade de Brasília Pedro Luiz Valls Pereira Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EESP Heleno Pioner University of Chicago Vladimir Pinheiro Ponczek Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EESP Álvaro Riascos Universidad de los Andes Jorge Rivera Universidad de Chile Ernesto Schargrodsky Universidad Torcuato Di Tella José Alexandre Scheinkman Princeton University André Portela Souza EESP/FGV Vladimir Kuhl Teles Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EESP Maria Cristina Terra Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGE Marcos Tsuchida Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EESP Carlos Urrutia ITAM, México
Local Committee
AFFILIATION NAME
José Heleno Faro (Chairman) IMPA Sergei Vieira IMPA Rodrigo Novinski IMPA Susan Schommer IMPA
12 General Information
13 Location of IMPA
IMPA is located near the Botanical Garden in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The address is: Estrada Dona Castorina, 110. Rio de Janeiro, RJ – Brasil. CEP: 22460-320
However, many cab drivers may need the following instructions which we reproduce in Portuguese:
HORTO, Por Favor: Vou para o IMPA na Estrada Dona Castorina, 110. NO FINAL da Rua PACHECO LEÃO à DIREITA DEPOIS do PONTO FINAL da LINHA DE ONIBUS 409.
Public Transportation:
How to get to IMPA:
The easiest and most cost effective (time wise) way to get to IMPA is by cab as described above. However, if you prefer to use public transportation see the next paragraph.
14 • From Copacabana:
You can use the bus line 125 (Jardim Botânico) from Avenida Princesa Isabel or Rua Barata Ribeiro and get off at the final stop. You should then walk uphill to Estrada Dona Castorina; IMPA is on the right hand side.
Since the 125 bus is somewhat infrequent, it is usually faster to follow a different route. Take the 572 or 584 bus and get off on Rua Jardim Botânico at the stop near ABBR and the “Pão de Açúcar” supermarket. Then, walk to Rua Lopes Quintas (which crosses Rua Jardim Botânico), go to the bus stop near the newsstand, take a 409 or 125 bus and get off at the final stop. From then on, follow the instructions at the end of the previous paragraph.
• From Ipanema and Leblon
You can use the bus line 125 (to Jardim Botânico) from Rua Prudente de Moraes (Ipanema), Avenida General San Martin (Leblon), or Avenida Bartolomeu Mitre (Leblon) and get off at the final stop. You should then walk uphill to Estrada Dona Castorina; IMPA is on the right hand side. Since the 125 bus is somewhat infrequent, it is usually faster to follow a different route. Take the 572, 512 or 584 bus and get off on Rua Jardim Botânico at the stop near ABBR and the “Pão de Açúcar” supermarket. Then, walk to Rua Lopes Quintas (which crosses Rua Jardim Botânico), go to the bus stop near the newsstand, take a 409 or 125 bus and get off at the final stop. From then on, follow the instructions at the end of the previous paragraph.
• From Flamengo, Botafogo and Humaitá
You can use the bus line 409 (Sans Pena – Horto) from Praia do Flamengo (Flamengo Beach), Praia de Botafogo (Botafogo Beach) or Rua Humaitá, and get off at the final stop. Then walk uphill to Estrada Dona Castorina; IMPA is on the right hand side.
15 COMPLETE PROGRAM
THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
DAY OVERVIEW
08:00 - 08:15 Registration 08:15 - 09:30 Opening Ceremony 09:30 - 10:30 Invited Lectures 10:30 - 10:45 Coffee Break 10:45 - 12:15 Sponsored and Contributed Sessions 12:15 - 13:15 Lunch 13:15 - 14:45 Sponsored and Contributed Sessions 14:45 - 16:15 Invited Lectures and Sessions 16:15 - 16:30 Coffee Break 16:30 - 18:00 Sponsored Sessions and Contributed Sessions 18:00 - 19:00 LACEA Plenary Sessions 18:00 - 19:30 LAMES Invited Sessions 19:00 - 20:00 LACEA Plenary Session 20:00 Cocktail
08:00 - 08:15 REGISTRATION
08:15 - 09:30 OPENING CEREMONY
08:15 - 09:30 OPENING CEREMONY (LACEA-LAMES) Room Auditorium 2 Chairperson: Aloisio Araujo, FGV/EPGE and IMPA
SPEAKER Carlos Ivan Simonsen Leal, President, Fundação Getúlio Vargas
SPEAKER Joaquim Levy, Treasury Secretary of Rio de Janeiro
SPEAKER Torsten Persson, Institute for International Economic Studies
SPEAKER Mauricio Cárdenas, Brookings Institution and LACEA
SPEAKER César Camacho, Director, IMPA
SPEAKER José Sérgio Gabrielli, President, PETROBRAS
SPEAKER Luciano Coutinho, President, BNDES
09:30 - 10:30 INVITED LECTURES LACEA
16 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
09:30 - 10:30 ALBERT HIRSCHMAN LECTURE (LACEA) Room Auditorium 2 Chairperson: Gobind Nankani, President of the Global Development Network
UNDERSTANDING SUSTAINED HIGH GROWTH AND INCLUSIVE DEVELOPMENT: ADAPTING TO NEW CHALLENGES IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Michael Spence, Stanford University
09:30 - 10:30 INVITED LECTURES LAMES
09:30 - 10:30 ROLF MANTEL LECTURE (LAMES) Room Auditorium 1 Chairperson: Carlos Ivan Simonsen Leal, President, Fundação Getúlio Vargas
GAME THEORY IN PRINCETON Harold Kuhn, Princeton University
09:30 - 10:30 SPECIAL LECTURE (LAMES) Room Auditorium 3 Chairperson: TBA
LEADERSHIP Edward Lazear, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and Professor of Economics, Stanford GSB
10:30 - 10:45 COFFEE BREAK
10:45 - 12:15 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LACEA
10:45 - 12:15 WORLD BANK SPONSORED SESSION: Room Auditorium 1 DO WHAT WE EXPORT MATTERS FOR GROWTH? (LACEA) Chairperson: Daniel Lederman, World Bank Research Group
TECHNOLOGY DIFFERENCES AND FACTOR PROPORTIONS Daniel Lederman, World Bank Research Group
HUMAN CAPITAL, PRODUCT QUALITY, AND BILATERAL TRADE Michael Waugh, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank
THE POWER OF EXPORTS Ariell Reshef, University of Virginia
10:45 - 12:15 NEW TRENDS IN FINANCIAL Room Auditorium 2 REGULATION - SPONSORED BY BBM (LACEA) Chairperson: Alexandre Tombini, Director of Norms - Brazilian Central Bank
This Session is Sponsored by BBM
17 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
RATING THE RATERS: ARE REPUTATION CONCERNS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO DISCIPLINE RATING AGENCIES? Jean-Charles Rochet, Toulouse School of Economics Co-Authors: Jérôme Mathis, Toulouse School of Economics and James McAndrews, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
THE PROCYCLICAL EFFECTS OF BASEL II Rafael Repullo, CEMFI
TBA Edward Lazear, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and Professor of Economics, Stanford GSB
10:45 - 12:15 IDB SPONSORED SESSION: SOCIAL Room Auditorium 3 PROGRAMS, POVERTY AND PRODUCTIVITY (LACEA) Chairperson: Cesar Bouillon, Inter-American Development Bank
This Session is sponsored by the IDB
THE IMPACT OF CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFER PROGRAMS ON LABOR SUPPLY Maria Laura Alzua, CEDLAS - Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Guillermo Cruces, Universidad de la Plata, Argentina and Laura Ripani, Inter-American Development Bank
SOCIAL PROGRAMS, LABOR MARKETS AND POVERTY REDUCTION IN BRAZIL Ricardo Paes de Barros, Instituto de Pesquisa Economica Aplicada (IPEA)
EFFECTS OF OPORTUNIDADES ON EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, MIGRATION AND OCCUPATIONAL MOBILITY IN RURAL MEXICO Eduardo Oreggia, Instituto de Investigaciones sobre Desarrollo Sustentable y Equidad Social
10:45 - 12:15 TAXATION (LACEA) Room 201 Chairperson: Elod Takats, IMF
RAMSEY TAXATION WITH ENDOGENOUS DEFAULT UNDER INCOMPLETE MARKETS Demian Pouzo, New York University
OPTIMAL BUSINESS INCOME TAX ENFORCEMENT AND THE INFORMAL SECTOR Eduardo Zilberman, New York University Co-Author: Saki Bigio, New York University
RESIDUAL AND TECHNICAL TAX EFFICIENCY SCORES FOR BRAZILIAN MUNICIPALITIES: A TWO-STAGE APPROACH Maria Da Conceição Sampaio De Sousa, Universidade de Brasília Co-Authors: Pedro Lucas Araújo Pereira, and Maria Eduarda Tannuri- Pianto, Universidade de Brasília
TAX RATE CUTS AND TAX COMPLIANCE - THE LAFFER CURVE REVISITED Elod Takats, IMF Co-Author: Tamas Papp, Princeton University
18 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
10:45 - 12:15 MACROECONOMICS AND FINANCE Room 206 (LACEA) Chairperson: Felipe Schwartzman, Princeton University
INFORMATION ASYMMETRY AND INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR MANDATE: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. MUTUAL FUND FOREIGN HOLDINGS Tatiana Didier, World Bank
MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS AND THE CO-MOVEMENT OF STOCK RETURNS IN LATIN AMERICA Eurilton Araújo, Ibmec São Paulo
BUSINESS GROUPS AND PYRAMIDAL OWNERSHIP IN ECUADORIAN BUSINESS Maria Granda, Texas A&M University, Escuela Superior Politecnica del Litoral
EXTERNAL FINANCE, INTERNAL FINANCE AND WAGES Felipe Schwartzman, Princeton University
10:45 - 12:15 BIS SPONSORED SESSION: MONETARY Room 224 AND FINANCIAL STABILITY IMPLICATIONS OF CAPITAL FLOWS IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (LACEA) Chairperson: Camilo Tovar, Bank for International Settlements
This Session is Sponsored by the BIS
ASSESSING THE EMERGING GLOBAL FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE: MEASURING THE TRILEMMA'S CONFIGURATION OVER TIME Joshua Aizenmann, Professor UC Santa Cruz Co-Authors: Menzie D. Chinn, University of Wisconsin & the NBER and Hiro Ito, Portland State University
IMPLICATIONS OF CAPITAL FLOWS IN BRAZIL Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araujo, Head of Research - Central Bank of Brazil and Rafael Chaves Santos, Policy Advisor - Central Bank of Brazil
MONETARY AND FINANCIAL STABILITY OF CAPITAL FLOWS IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Camilo Tovar, Bank for International Settlements Co-Author: Alejandro Jara, Bank for International Settlements
TBA Kevin Cowan, Head of Financial Policy at the Central Bank of Chile
10:45 - 12:15 ECONOMETRIC THEORY AND Room 232 APPLICATIONS (LACEA) Chairperson: J. Ernesto Lopez Cordova, Inter-American Development Bank
DYNAMIC PANEL PROBIT MODELS FOR CURRENT ACCOUNT REVERSALS AND THEIR EFFICIENT ESTIMATION Guilherme Valle Moura, University of Kiel, Germany Co-Authors: Roman Lisenfeld, University of Kiel and Jean-Francois Richard, University of Pittsburgh
19 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
TESTING FOR A DETERMINISTIC TREND WHEN THERE IS EVIDENCE OF UNIT-ROOT Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, Universidad de Guanajuato Co-Author: Manuel Gómez, Universidad de Guanajuato
AN ASSESSMENT OF ANOTHER DECADE OF CAPITAL CONTROLS IN COLOMBIA: 1998-2008 Arturo Galindo, Inter-American Development Bank
THE INCIDENCE OF GRAFT ON DEVELOPING-COUNTRY FIRMS J. Ernesto Lopez Cordova, Inter-American Development Bank Co-Authors: Alvaro Gonzalez, World Bank and Elio Valladares,
10:45 - 12:15 INTERNATIONAL TRADE I (LACEA) Room 236 Chairperson: Emanuel Ornelas, London School of Economics
TRADE FLOWS, FINANCIAL LINKAGE, AND BUSINESS CYCLES IN LATIN AMERICA Magda Kandil, International Monetary Fund
TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND INDUSTRY DYNAMICS: A DIFFERENCE IN DIFFERENCE APPROACH Roberto Alvarez, Central Bank of Chile and Intelis, University of Chile Co-Author: Ricardo López,
BILATERAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION, EXPORTS AND TECHNOLOGY UPGRADING EVIDENCE FROM THE IMPACT OF MERCOSUR ON ARGENTINEAN FIRMS Paula Bustos, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Crei
PROTECTION AND INTERNATIONAL SOURCING Emanuel Ornelas, London School of Economics Co-Author: John Turner, University of Georgia
10:45 - 12:15 MARKET STRUCTURE AND SOCIETY Room 329 (LACEA) Chairperson: Ana Cusolito, The World Bank
PATENT BREADTH IN AN INTERNATIONAL SETTING Ben Zissimos, Vanderbilt University Co-Author: Eric Bond, Vanderbilt University
INFORMATION SHARING AND INNOVATION IN AN INDUSTRIAL CLUSTER OF NOVA FRIBRUGO, BRAZIL Isleide Zissimos, UFRJ / Vanderbilt University
DO VOLUNTARY POLLUTION REDUCTION PROGRAMS HELP REDUCE POLLUTION LEVELS? EVIDENCE FROM THE MEXICAN CLEAN INDUSTRY PROGRAM. Emilio Gutierrez Fernandez, Brown University Co-Author: Andrew Foster, Brown University
COMPETITION, IMITATION, AND DIRECTED TECHNICAL CHANGE: QUALITY VS. VARIETY Ana Cusolito, The World Bank
20 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
10:45 - 12:15 SOCIAL PROGRAMS (LACEA) Room 331 Chairperson: Jeremie Gignoux, The World Bank
LOOKING WITHIN THE HOUSEHOLD: IMPACTS FOR INDIVIDUAL OUTCOMES USING AGGREGATE HOUSEHOLD DATA Vincenzo Di Maro, University College London
POVERTY AND TIME PREFERENCES Leandro Carvalho, Princeton University
LOCAL ELECTORAL REWARDS FROM CENTRALIZED SOCIAL PROGRAMS: THE CASE OF PROGRESA-OPORTUNIDADES IN MEXICO Lourdes Rodriguez-Chamussy, University of California, Berkeley
EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF SCHOOLING CASH TRANSFERS WITH SPILLOVERS ACROSS VILLAGES: EVIDENCE FROM PROGRESA Jeremie Gignoux, The World Bank
10:45 - 12:15 LABOR ECONOMICS I (LACEA) Room 335 Chairperson: David Kaplan, World Bank
DECOMPOSING THE GENDER WAGE GAP WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION: EVIDENCE FROM COLOMBIA Ximena Pena, Universidad de Los Andes Co-Author: Alejandro Badel, Georgetown University
THE PLACE PREMIUM: WAGE DIFFERENCES FOR IDENTICAL WORKERS ACROSS THE U.S. BORDER Michael Clemens, Center for Global Development
WAGE STRUCTURE AND SEGMENTATION OF LABOR MARKET IN COLOMBIA: AN ANALYSIS OF THE SEVEN MAIN CITIES, 2001- 2005 Diana Carolina Mesa Téllez, Universidad del Rosario Co-Authors: Andres Felipe Garcia, Universidad del Rosario and Monica Roa, National Planning Department
JOB CREATION AND LABOR REFORM IN LATIN AMERICA David Kaplan, World Bank
10:45 - 12:15 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (LACEA) Room 349 Chairperson: Matteo Grazzi, UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC-CEPAL)
THE ROLE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY IN LATIN AMERICAN DEVELOPMENT Carlos Gustavo Machicado Salas, Institute for Advanced Development Studies Co-Authors: Felix Rioja, Georgia State University and Antonio Saravia, American University of Sharjah
ENDOGENOUS PRODUCTIVITY AND MULTIPLE STEADY STATES Riccardo DiCecio, FRB of St. Louis Co-Author: Levon Barseghyan, Cornell University
21 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
REMOVING THE CONSTRAINTS FOR GROWTH: SOME GUIDELINES Rodrigo Fuentes, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Co-Author: Cesar Calderon, The World Bank
WHAT DRIVES ICT DIFFUSION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES? EVIDENCE FROM PARAGUAY Matteo Grazzi, UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC-CEPAL) Co-Author: Sebastián Vergara, UN Economic Commission for Latina America and the Caribbean (ECLAC - CEPAL)
10:45 - 12:15 MACROECONOMICS (LACEA) Room 401 Chairperson: Rubens Penha Cysne, Fundação Getulio Vargas
BUDGET DEFICITS AND INTEREST RATES: A FRESH PERSPECTIVE Ari Aisen, Banco Central de Chile Co-Author: David Hauner, Bank of America
UNIQUE MONETARY EQUILIBRIA WITH INTEREST RATE RULES Pedro Teles, Banco de Portugal, Univ Catolica, CEPR Co-Authors: Bernardino Adao, Banco de Portugal and Isabel Correia, Banco de Portugal, Univ. Catolica, CEPR
TAX REFORM: THEORY AND PROPOSALS TO BRAZIL Thiago Pereira, EPGE / FGV
ON THE ERROR ARISING FROM IGNORING INTEREST-BEARING MONIES IN THE CALCULATION OF THE WELFARE COSTS OF INFLATION Rubens Penha Cysne, Fundação Getulio Vargas Co-Author: David Turchick, Fundação Getulio Vargas
10:45 - 12:15 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LAMES - Econometrics and Empirical Economics
10:45 - 12:15 PROGRAM EVALUATION I (LAMES EEE) Room 345 Chairperson: Cesar Martinelli, ITAM
"DO I REALLY NEED TO GO TO REHAB? I'D SAY NO, NO, NO." ESTIMATING PRICE ELASTICITIES OF CONVALESCENT CARE PROGRAMS Nicolas Ziebarth, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW)
SOCIAL POLICY INDEX :A MODEL BASED APPROACH Juan Manuel Tellez, University of Geneva Co-Author: Jaya Krishnakumar, Department of Econometrics, University of Geneva
DO GOVERNMENTAL INCOME TRANSFER PROGRAMS HAVE IMPACT ON POVERTY IN BRAZIL? Fabricio Linhares, CAEN/UFC Co-Authors: Campelo Guaracyane, CAEN/UFC and Emerson Marinho, CAEN/UFC
INFORMATION AND PARTICIPATION IN A SOCIAL PROGRAM Cesar Martinelli, ITAM Co-Authors: David Coady, IMF and Susan Parker, CIDE
22 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
10:45 - 12:15 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LAMES - Theoretical and Applied Economics
10:45 - 12:15 POLITICAL ECONOMY (LAMES TAE) Room 130 Chairperson: Jorge M. Streb, Universidad del Cema
INFORMATION TRANSMISSION AND INEFFICIENT LOBBYING Rafael Costa Lima, FGV/EPGE Co-Author: Humberto Moreira, FGV -- EPGE
COMPARATIVE POLITICS WITH ENDOGENOUS INTRA-PARTY DISCIPLINE Benoit Crutzen, Erasmus University Rotterdam Co-Author: Micael Castanheira, ECARES, Free University of Brussels, FNRS and CEPR
TWO-BALLOT VERSUS PLURALITY RULE: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION ON THE NUMBER OF CANDIDATES Mauro Rodrigues, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil Co-Authors: Carlos Eduardo Goncalves, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil and Ricardo Madeira, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil
DIVIDED GOVERNMENT AND POLITICAL BUDGET CYCLES Jorge M. Streb, Universidad del Cema Co-Author: Gustavo F. Torrens, Washington University in Saint Louis
10:45 - 12:15 EMERGING MARKET BUSINESS CYCLES Room 132 (LAMES TAE) Chairperson: Christian Daude, OECD Development Centre
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS CYCLES IN EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES Marcelo Silva, The University of North Carolina - Chapel Hill
COUNTRY SPREADS AS CREDIT CONSTRAINTS IN EMERGING ECONOMY BUSINESS CYCLES Sarquis Sarquis, IRBr (Brazil), FMG/LSE (UK)
ON THE SOURCES OF AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES Andres Fernandez, Rutgers University Co-Author: Roberto Chang, Rutgers University
EMERGING MARKET BUSINESS CYCLES REVISITED: LEARNING ABOUT THE TREND Christian Daude, OECD Development Centre Co-Authors: Emine Boz, International Monetary Fund and Bora Durdu, Federal Reserve Board
10:45 - 12:15 CORPORATE FINANCE (LAMES TAE) Room 228 Chairperson: Lucía Quesada, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
INTEREST RATES IN TRADE CREDIT MARKETS Klenio Barbosa, Toulouse School of Economics Co-Authors: Humberto Moreira, FGV -- EPGE and Walter Novaes, PUC-Rio
EXIT OPTIONS AND DIVIDEND POLICY UNDER LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS Marko Terviö, UC Berkeley
23 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
Co-Author: Pauli Murto, Helsinki School of Economics
THE DELEGATED PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT PROBLEM: REPUTATION AND HERDING Felix Villatoro, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
FINANCIAL CONTRACTING WITH AN INFORMED INVESTOR Lucía Quesada, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella Co-Author: Eloïc Peyrache, HEC School of Management
10:45 - 12:15 VOTING (LAMES TAE) Room 333 Chairperson: Felix Vardy, Office of the Chief Economist LCR, World Bank
COSTLY INFORMATION ACQUISITION.PART I: BETTER TO TOSS A COIN? Matteo Maria Triossi Verondini, CEA, Departamento de Ingenieria Industrial, Universidad de Chile.
REDISTRIBUTION IN A MODEL OF VOTING AND CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS Filipe Campante, Harvard University
NEGATIVE VOTE BUYING AND THE SECRET BALLOT Felix Vardy, Office of the Chief Economist LCR, World Bank
10:45 - 12:15 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS (LAMES Room 347 TAE) Chairperson: Laixun Zhao, Kobe University
BUSINESS TRAVEL AS AN INPUT TO INTERNATIONAL TRADE Jennifer Poole, University of California, Santa Cruz
TRADE LIBERALIZATION IN ENVIRONMENTALLY PREFERABLE PRODUCTS Estelle Gozlan, INRA Co-Author: Maria Priscila RAMOS, AgroParisTech and CEPII
INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION TEAMS AND TRADE WITH SORTING AND MATCHING Jose Tessada, University of Maryland
IMMIGRATION CONFLICTS Laixun Zhao, Kobe University Co-Author: Junko Doi, Kansai University
12:15 - 13:15 LUNCH
13:15 - 14:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LACEA
13:15 - 14:45 WORLD BANK SPONSORED SESSION: Room Auditorium 1 MEASURING INEQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY IN LATIN AMERICA (LACEA) Chairperson: Jaime Saavedra, World Bank Discussants: Luis Felipe López-Calva, Regional Bureau of Latin America and the Caribbean, UNDP and Andre Urani, IETS
24 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
PANELIST 1 Ricardo Paes de Barros, Instituto de Pesquisa Economica Aplicada (IPEA)
PANELIST 2 Marcelo Giugale, World Bank
13:15 - 14:45 IMF SPONSORED SESSION: 2008 Room Auditorium 2 REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - WESTERN HEMISPHERE (LACEA) Chairperson: Robert K. Rennhack, IMF
GRAPPLING WITH THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS Ana Corbacho, IMF Discussant(s): Mauricio Cárdenas, Brookings Institute and LACEA
ELEVATED FOOD PRICES AND VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS: FISCAL POLICY OPTIONS Ana Corbacho, IMF
CORPORATE VULNERABILITY: HAVE FIRMS REDUCED THEIR EXPOSURE TO CURRENCY RISK Herman Kamil, International Monetary Fund Discussant(s): Kevin Cowan, Head of Financial Policy at the Central Bank of Chile
13:15 - 14:45 IDB SPONSORED SESSION - BOND Room Auditorium 3 MARKETS IN LATIN AMERICA (LACEA) Chairpersons: Eduardo Borensztein, International Monetary Fund and Ugo Panizza, Unctad
This Session is Sponsored by IDB
CORPORATE BOND MARKETS IN ARGENTINA Jorge M. Streb, Universidad del Cema
DEVELOPMENT OF THE BRAZILIAN BOND MARKET Ricardo P. C. Leal, Coppead/UFRJ
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CHILEAN CORPORATE BOND MARKET Matias Braun, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez & IM Trust
DEVELOPMENT OF COLOMBIAN BOND MARKETS Mauricio Cárdenas, Brookings Institute and LACEA and Marcela Meléndez, Inter-American Development Bank
DEVELOPMENT OF THE MEXICAN BOND MARKET Sara G. Castellanos, Bank of Mexico
THE FIXED-INCOME MARKET IN URUGUAY Nestor Gandelman, Universidad ORT Uruguay
13:15 - 14:45 POVERTY (LACEA) Room 201 Chairperson: Carlos Gradín, Universidade de Vigo
IDENTIFYING VICTIMS FROM CIVIL CONFLICTS: AN EVALUATION OF FORCED DISPLACED HOUSEHOLDS IN COLOMBIAƒX Ana Ibáñez, Universidad de los Andes Co-Author: Andrea Velásquez, Duke University
25 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
DO CHANGES IN THE LABOUR MARKET TAKE FAMILIES OUT OF POVERTY: DETERMINANTS OF EXITING POVERTY IN BRAZILIAN METROPOLITAN REGIONS Ana Flávia Machado, CEDEPLAR/UFMG Co-Author: Rafael Perez Ribas, International Poverty Centre and University of Illinois
A POVERTY TRAP MODEL WITH HUMAN CAPITAL AND THE QUALITY OF EDUCATION Maria Emma Santos, Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, University of Oxford and CONICET-Universidad Nacional del Sur
POVERTY AMONG MINORITIES IN THE UNITED STATES: EXPLAINING THE RACIAL POVERTY GAP FOR BLACKS AND LATINOS Carlos Gradín, Universidade de Vigo
13:15 - 14:45 LABOR ECONOMICS: GENDER BIAS Room 206 (LACEA) Chairperson: Lucia Madrigal, Interamerican Development Bank
GENDER SEGREGATION IN THE WORKPLACE AND WAGE GAPS: EVIDENCE FROM URBAN MEXICO 1994-2004 Sebastian Calonico, University of Michigan Co-Author: Hugo Nopo, Inter-American Development Bank
THE ROLE OF GENDER INEQUALITIES IN EXPLAINING INCOME GROWTH, POVERTY AND INEQUALITY: EVIDENCES FROM LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES Joana Costa, International Poverty Centre Co-Authors: Elydia Silva, International Poverty Centre and Fabio Vaz, UnB
MAIDS’ SERVICES AS A SUBSTITUTE FACTOR IN HOME- PRODUCTION. Ana Claudia P Fava, UIUC Co-Author: Mary Arends-Kuenning, UIUC
PART-TIME WORK, GENDER AND JOB SATISFACTION: EVIDENCE FROM A DEVELOPING COUNTRY Lucia Madrigal, Interamerican Development Bank Co-Authors: Florencia Lopez Boo, IDB/University of Oxford and Carmen Pages, Inter-American Development Bank
13:15 - 14:45 GOVERNMENT DEBT (LACEA) Room 232 Chairperson: Claudio Raddatz, World Bank
IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC, POLITICAL, AND INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS ON THE STRUCTURE OF GOVERNMENT DEBT IN THE EMERGING MARKET COUNTRIES Anastasia Guscina, The George Washington University, and the IMF
THE DOMESTIC COSTS OF SOVEREIGN DEFAULT: CAN AGGRESSIVE DEBT POLICIES AFFECT PRIVATE SECTOR ACCESS TO CREDIT? Christoph Trebesch, Free University of Berlin
TOUGH POLICIES, INCREDIBLE POLICIES? Alejandro Neut, OECD Development Centre Co-Author: Andres Velasco, Harvard University
26 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
MULTILATERAL DEBT RELIEF THROUGH THE EYES OF FINANCIAL MARKETS Claudio Raddatz, World Bank
13:15 - 14:45 INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION I (LACEA) Room 236 Chairperson: E. Glen Weyl, Harvard University and Toulouse School of Economics
FIRM ENTRY AND LABOR MARKET DYNAMICS Pedro Silos, Federal Reserve Bank Atlanta Co-Author: Enchuan Shao, Bank of Canada
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WAL-MART COMES TO YOUR COUNTRY? MULTINATIONAL FIRMS' ENTRY, PRODUCTIVITY AND INEFFICIENCY Silvio Contessi, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
PASS-THROUGH AS AN ECONOMIC TOOL E. Glen Weyl, Harvard University and Toulouse School of Economics
13:15 - 14:45 POLITICAL ECONOMY AND INCENTIVES Room 331 (LACEA) Chairperson: Claudio Ferraz, PUC-Rio
LIMITING PRESIDENTIAL DECREE POWER: THE EFFECT OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM 32/2001 IN BRAZIL OVER POLICY OUTCOMES. Mónica Pachon , Universidad de los Andes
SHOULD VOTERS BE AFRAID OF HARD-BUDGET CONSTRAINT LEGISLATION? FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY LAW IN BRAZILIAN MUNICIPALITIES Carlos Pereira, Michigan State University Co-Author: Paulo Arvate, FGV and Michigan State University
POLITICAL PRICE CYCLES IN REGULATED INDUSTRIES: THEORY AND EVIDENCE Rodrigo Moita, Ibmec Sao Paulo Co-Author: Claudio Paiva, International Monetary Fund
MOTIVATING POLITICIANS: THE IMPACTS OF MONETARY INCENTIVES ON QUALITY AND PERFORMANCE Claudio Ferraz, PUC-Rio Co-Author: Frederico Finan, UCLA
13:15 - 14:45 FINANCE: TERM STRUCTURE (LACEA) Room 335 Chairperson: Samer Shousha, BBM Bank
GIVING FLEXIBILITY TO THE NELSON-SIEGEL CLASS OF TERM STRUCTURE MODELS Rafael Rezende, Center for Development and Regional Planning
TESTING THE LONG-RUN IMPLICATIONS OF THE EXPECTATION HYPOTHESIS USING COINTEGRATION TECHNIQUES WITH STRUCTURAL CHANGE Pedro Valls Pereira, EESP-FGV Co-Authors: Omar M. F. Abbara, IMECC-UNICAMP and Emerson Marçal, Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie and UNICAMP
MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS AND THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES IN EMERGING MARKETS: THE BRAZILIAN CASE Samer Shousha, BBM Bank 27 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
13:15 - 14:45 DEVELOPMENT AND INEQUALITY Room 349 (LACEA) Chairperson: Guenther Rehme, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin
HETEROGENEITY IN MACRO MINCER RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM PANEL DATA Marcelo Soto, Instituto de Analisis Economico
EDUCATION AND THE EVOLUTION OF EARNINGS INEQUALITY IN BRAZIL Priscilla Albuquerque Tavares, Education Office of São Paulo and Mackenzie University Co-Author: Naercio Menezes-Filho, FEA-USP and Ibmec/SP
ENTREPRENEURSHIP, CAPITAL GAINS, AND SOCIAL MOBILITY Gabriel Arturo Basaluzzo, Universidad de San Andres
ENDOGENOUS (RE-)DISTRIBUTIVE POLICIES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A COMPARATIVE STATIC ANALYSIS Guenther Rehme, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin
13:15 - 14:45 LABOR ECONOMICS II (LACEA) Room 401 Chairperson: Jennifer Poole, University of California, Santa Cruz
TESTING WHETHER LEARNING THE MATCH QUALITY MATTERS FOR EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS Carlos Henrique Corseuil, IPEA
UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION IN MEXICO: ITS DETERMINANTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE LABOR MARKET SEGMENTATION CONTROVERSY AND PUBLIC POLICY DESIGN Angel Calderón-Madrid, El Colegio de Mexico
UNCERTAINTY AND VOLATILITY IN LABOR MARKETS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Maria Elisa Farias, Universidad de Chile
MULTINATIONAL SPILLOVERS THROUGH WORKER TURNOVER Jennifer Poole, University of California, Santa Cruz
13:15 - 14:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LAMES - Econometrics and Empirical Economics
13:15 - 14:45 DEVELOPMENT (LAMES EEE) Room 130 Chairperson: Luigi Ventura, Sapienza, University of Rome
BUSINESS OWNERSHIP AND SELF-EMPLOYMENT IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES: THE COLOMBIAN CASE Ximena Pena, Universidad de Los Andes Co-Author: Camilo Mondragón-Vélez, IFC
HOUSING DEMAND IN MEXICO Fidel Gonzalez, Sam Houston State University
28 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
PRICE AND INCOME EFFECT ON THE QUALITY OF BRAZILIAN FOOD DIET AND HEALTH: AN ANALYSIS OF NUTRIENTS' DEMAND Paula Carvalho Pereda, USP Co-Author: Denisard Alves, Universidade de São Paulo
RISK SHARING: A LONG RUN ISSUE? Luigi Ventura, Sapienza, University of Rome
13:15 - 14:45 PARTIAL AND WEAK IDENTIFICATION Room 329 (LAMES EEE) Chairperson: Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, University of Florida
EXOGENEITY TESTS AND WEAK IDENTIFICATION: FINITE- SAMPLE AND ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTIONS THEORY Firmin Doko Tchatoka, University of Montreal Co-Author: Jean-Marie Dufour, McGill university,
MEASURING PRECISION OF STATISTICAL INFERENCE ON PARTIALLY IDENTIFIED PARAMETERS Aleksey Tetenov, Collegio Carlo Alberto
BOUNDS FOR QUANTILES OF TREATMENT EFFECTS Jinhyun Lee, UCL
NONPARAMETRIC PARTIAL AND POINT IDENTIFICATION OF NET OR DIRECT CAUSAL EFFECTS Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, University of Florida Co-Author: Carlos Flores, University of Miami
13:15 - 14:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LAMES - Theoretical and Applied Economics
13:15 - 14:45 EDUCATION (LAMES TAE) Room 132 Chairperson: Lars Ehlers, U de Montreal
COLLEGE ENROLLMENT, DROPOUTS AND OPTION VALUE OF EDUCATION Nicholas Trachter, University of Chicago Co-Author: Ali Ozdagli, University of Chicago
DOES THE POSSIBILITY OF OPTING OUT OF PUBLIC EDUCATION FAVOR EXPENDITURE ON BASIC EDUCATION? Gabriel Romero, University of Alicante
PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN HIGHER EDUCATION: COMPARING ALTERNATIVE FUNDING SCHEMES Bernhard Eckwert, Bielefeld University
CONTROLLED SCHOOL CHOICE Lars Ehlers, U de Montreal Co-Author: Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Duke University
13:15 - 14:45 PUBLIC ECONOMICS (LAMES TAE) Room 224 Chairperson: Wilfredo Maldonado, Graduate School in Economics - Catholic University of Brasília
29 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
FUTURE RENT-SEEKING AND CURRENT PUBLIC SAVINGS Pierre Yared, Columbia University Co-Author: Ricardo J. Caballero, MIT
ANALYZING THE CASE FOR A BALANCED BUDGET AMENDMENT TO THE U.S. CONSTITUTION Marco Battaglini, Princeton University Co-Authors: marina azzimonti, univ of texas and steve coate,
WHO’S AFRAID OF POPULATION AGING? Alexander Ueberfeldt, Bank of Canada Co-Author: Danny Leung, Bank of Canada
FINANCIAL CAPITAL IN A CGE MODEL FOR BRAZIL: FORMULATION AND IMPLICATIONS Wilfredo Maldonado, Graduate School in Economics - Catholic University of Brasília Co-Authors: Octávio Tourinho, BNDES and Marcos Valli, Banco Central do Brasil
13:15 - 14:45 FINANCIAL ECONOMICS I (LAMES TAE) Room 228 Chairperson: Juan Pablo Nicolini, Universidad Di Tella
INFORMATION PERCOLATION WITH EQUILIBRIUM SEARCH DYNAMICS Gustavo Manso, MIT Co-Authors: Darrell Duffie, Stanford University and Semyon Malamud, ETH Zurich
TAYLOR SERIES APPROXIMATIONS TO EXPECTED UTILITY AND OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO CHOICE Lorenzo Garlappi, The University of Texas at Austin Co-Author: Georgios Skoulakis, University of Maryland
PORTFOLIO CHOICE UNDER UNCERTAIN LIFETIME Antoine Bommier, Toulouse School of Economics
STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY AND LEARNING Juan Pablo Nicolini, Universidad Di Tella
13:15 - 14:45 MONETARY POLICY AND REACTION Room 333 FUNCTIONS (LAMES TAE) Chairperson: Sandra Lizarazo, Instituto Autonomo de Mexico
MODELING AN OPTIMAL PRICE LEVEL TARGET MONETARY POLICY Mirta Bugarin, FUCAPE Business School Co-Author: Gil Riella, Banco Central do Brasil
DO CENTRAL BANKS RESPOND TO EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS? SOME NEW EVIDENCE FROM STRUCTURAL ESTIMATION Wei Dong, Bank of Canada
30 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
FISCAL POLICY, PHILLIPS CURVE AND NONLINEARITIES IN MONETARY POLICY: THEORIES AND EVIDENCE FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC Raul Hernandez Baez, CIEF Consulting, Rutgers University, Pontificia Universidad Católica Madre y Maestra y Universidad Católica de Santo Domingo. Co-Author: Juan Pimentel Aristy, CIEF Consulting
MONEY, CREDIT AND DEFAULT Sandra Lizarazo, Instituto Autonomo de Mexico Co-Author: Jose Maria Da-Rocha, Research Group in Economic Analysis - Universidade de Vigo
13:15 - 14:45 NETWORKS (LAMES TAE) Room 345 Chairperson: Maria Gomez-Rua, Universidade de Vigo
SOCIAL LEARNING WITH A HIDDEN ACTION Helios Herrera, Columbia University Co-Authors: Johannes Horner, Yale and Johannes Horner,
DYNAMIC SOCIAL INTERACTIONS: IDENTIFICATION AND CHARACTERIZATION Onur Ozgur, University of Montreal Co-Author: Alberto Bisin, New York University
IDENTITY AND FRAGMENTATION IN NETWORK Pritha Dev, ITAM
NO ADVANTAGEOUS MERGING IN MINIMUM COST SPANNING TREE PROBLEMS. Maria Gomez-Rua, Universidade de Vigo Co-Author: Juan J. Vidal-Puga, Universidade de Vigo
13:15 - 14:45 AUCTIONS (LAMES TAE) Room 347 Chairperson: Eiichiro Kazumori, University of Tokyo
CHARITY AUCTIONS FOR THE HAPPY FEW Olivier Bos, Paris School of Economics and CORE
EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF ELECTRICITY AUCTIONS Alejandro Jofré, Universidad de Chile Co-Author: Juan Escobar, Stanford University
LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINED COMPETING AUCTIONS Ian King, University of Melbourne Co-Authors: Richard Dutu, University of Waikato and Benoit Julien, University of New South Wales
INFORMATION AGGREGATION IN UNIFORM PRICE DOUBLE AUCTIONS Eiichiro Kazumori, University of Tokyo
14:45 - 16:15 INVITED LECTURES AND SESSIONS LACEA
14:45 - 16:15 MACROECONOMICS (LACEA) Room Auditorium 2 Chairperson: Juan Pablo Nicolini, Universidad Di Tella
31 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
TBA Fernando Alvarez, University of Chicago
A MULTIPLIER APPROACH TO UNDERSTANDING THE MACRO IMPLICATIONS OF HOUSEHOLD FINANCE Harold L. Cole, University of California, Los Angeles Co-Authors: YiLi Chien, Purdue University and Hanno Lustig, UCLA and NBER
14:45 - 16:15 DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS (LACEA) Room Auditorium 3 Chairperson: Armando Castelar, UFRJ and Gávea Investimentos
NUDGING FARMERS TO USER FERTILIZER: EVIDENCE FROM KENYA Michel Kremer, Harvard University Co-Authors: Esther Duflo, MIT and Jonathan Robinson, University of California, Santa Cruz
EMPOWERING WOMEN: HOW OPORTUNIDADES IMPROVED BIRTH OUTCOMES Paul Gertler, University of California, Berkeley
14:45 - 16:15 POLITICAL ECONOMY I (LACEA) Room 224 Chairperson: TBA
THE THEORY OF POLITICAL ECONOMY OF INSTITUTIONS AND REFORMS François Bourguignon, Paris School of Economics Co-Author: Thierry Verdier, Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques
LAND POWER: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM CHILE Jean Marie Baland, FUNDP
14:45 - 16:15 INVITED LECTURES AND SESSIONS LAMES
14:45 - 16:15 LABOR ECONOMICS (LAMES) Room Auditorium 1 Chairperson: Gustavo Gonzaga, PUC-RIO
WAGE RISK AND EMPLOYMENT RISK OVER THE LIFE CYCLE Costas Meghir, University College London Co-Authors: Hamish Low, University of Cambridge and IFS and Luigi Pistaferri, Stanford University, SIEPR and CEPR
ASSESSING THE EQUALIZING FORCE OF MOBILITY USING SHORT PANELS: FRANCE, 1990-2000 Jean-Marc Robin, Paris School of Economics Co-Author: Stéphane Bonhomme, CEMFI
14:45 - 16:15 GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM (LAMES) Room 228 Chairperson: V. Filipe Martins-da-Rocha, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation
VERIFYING COMPETITIVE EQUILIBRIA IN DYNAMIC ECONOMIES Felix Kubler, University of Zurich
COMPETITIVE EQUILIBRIA IN SEMI-ALGEBRAIC ECONOMIES Karl Schmedders, Northwestern University Co-Author: Felix Kubler, University of Zurich
32 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
14:45 - 16:15 HEALTH ECONOMICS AND Room 232 ECONOMETRICS (LAMES) Chairperson: André Souza, FGV
MODELING RISK USING FOURTH ORDER PSEUDO MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHODS Alberto Holly, Université de Lausanne
MONITORING PRIORIZATION IN A PUBLIC HEALTH CARE SECTOR Jan Erik Askildsen, University of Bergen Co-Authors: Tor Helge Holmås, University of Bergen and Oddvar Kaarbøe, University of Bergen
16:15 - 16:30 COFFEE BREAK
16:30 - 18:00 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LACEA
16:30 - 18:00 CAF PANEL ON DECENTRALIZATION Room Auditorium 1 AND LOCAL DEVELOPMENT (LACEA) Chairperson: Pablo Sanguinetti, CAF/UTDT
This Session is sponsored by CAF
LOCAL GOVERNMENTS CAPACITY AND PERFORMANCE: EVIDENCE FROM PERUVIAN MUNICIPALITIES Fernando Aragon, London School of Economics
DECENTRALIZATION AND ACCESS TO SOCIAL SERVICES IN COLOMBIA Jean-Paul Faguet, London School of Economics
COORDINATING TO LIMIT POLLUTION SPILLOVERS UNDER DECENTRALIZED MANAGEMENT OF WATER IN BRAZIL Mushfiq Mobarak, Yale University
16:30 - 18:00 WORLD BANK SPONSORED SESSION: Room Auditorium 2 CLIMATE CHANGE IN LATIN AMERICA: IMPACTS AND POLICY RESPONSES (LACEA) Chairperson: Justin Lin, Chief Economist for the World Bank
This Session is Sponsored by the World Bank
EQUITY AND EFFICIENCY IN THE GREENHOUSE: RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN LATIN AMERICA Pablo Fajnzylber, World Bank Co-Author: John D. Nash, World Bank
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND POVERTY Juliano Assunção, Departamento de Economia PUC-Rio Co-Author: Flávia Chein, CEDEPLAR/FACE/UFMG
33 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
A TAX–BASED APPROACH TO SLOWING GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE Eduardo Ley, The World Bank Co-Authors: Joseph E. Aldy, Resources for the Future and Ian Parry, Resources for the Future
ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURE Eustaquio Reis, IPEA Co-Authors: José Gustavo Feres, IPEA and Juliana Speranza, IPEA
16:30 - 18:00 IDB SPONSORED SESSION: STRESSING Room Auditorium 3 THE ANCHOR: COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS, EXCHANGE RATE PASS- THROUGH, AND INFLATION TARGETING (LACEA) Chairperson: Luis Catao, Inter-American Development Bank
This Session is sponsored by the IDB
MUNDELL-FLEMING REVISITED: THE ROLE OF TRADE OPENNESS Michael Kumhof, IMF Co-Authors: Guillermo Calvo, Columbia University and Ondra Kamenik, Czech National Bank and IMF
FOOD PRICE SHOCKS AND OPTIMAL INFLATION TARGETING Luis Catao, Inter-American Development Bank Discussant(s): Ilan Goldfajn, Founding Partner, Ciano Investments, and Professor, PUC-RJ Co-Author: Roberto Chang, Rutgers University
INFLATION TARGETING UNDER IMPERFECT POLICY CREDIBILITY Ali Alichi, IMF Discussant(s): Alessandro Rebucci, Inter-American Development Bank Co-Authors: Marianne Johnson, Bank of Canada and Douglas Laxton, IMF
16:30 - 18:00 POVERTY AND WELFARE I (LACEA) Room 201 Chairperson: Emmanuel Skoufias, The World Bank (MC4-415)
DO CHANGES IN INCOME AFFECT MORTALITY? THE CASE OF MEXICO Fidel Gonzalez, Sam Houston State University Co-Author: Troy Quast, Sam Houston State University
REPEAT CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION AND INCOME INEQUALITY IN BRAZIL Jose Raimundo Carvalho, CAEN/UFC Co-Author: Sylvia Lavor, CAEN/UFC
INTRA-HOUSEHOLD REDISTRIBUTION AND HEALTH PERCEPTIONS Samanta Sacramento dos Reis Monte, Center for Social Policies/IBRE / Fundação Getulio Vargas Co-Authors: Luísa Carvalhaes, Center for Social Policies/IBRE - Fundação Getulio Vargas and Marcelo Cortes Neri, Fundação Getúlio Vargas
34 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
THE SOURCES OF WELFARE DISPARITIES ACROSS AND WITHIN REGIONS OF BRAZIL: EVIDENCE FROM THE 2002-03 POF Emmanuel Skoufias, The World Bank (MC4-415) Co-Author: Roy Katayama, The World Bank
16:30 - 18:00 MACROECONOMICS: CENTRAL BANKS Room 206 (LACEA) Chairperson: Herman Kamil, International Monetary Fund
BANKING ON POLITICS Matias Braun, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez & IM Trust Co-Author: Claudio Raddatz, World Bank
DO LATIN AMERICAN CENTRAL BANKERS BEHAVE NON- LINEARLY? THE EXPERIENCE OF BRAZIL, CHILE, COLOMBIA AND MEXICO. Matteo Mogliani, Paris School of Economics Co-Authors: Luiz de Mello, OECD and Diego Moccero, OECD
THE EFFECTS OF THE GLOBALIZATION ON BRAZILIAN INFLATION Rafael Chaves Santos, Policy Advisor - Central Bank of Brazil Co-Author: Marcia Leon, BCB
DOES FOREIGN EXCHANGE INTERVENTION WORK FOR INFLATION TARGETERS? THE CASE OF COLOMBIA Herman Kamil, International Monetary Fund
16:30 - 18:00 DEVELOPMENT: POLICY ANALYSIS Room 232 (LACEA) Chairperson: Rafael Di Tella, Harvard Business School
PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION: CAUSAL EVIDENCE FOR BRAZILIAN MUNICIPALITIES Enlinson Mattos, Getulio Vargas Foundation - Sao Paulo School of Economics Co-Author: Vitor França, Getulio Vargas Foundation - Sao Paulo School of Economics
DECENTRALIZATION AND EDUCATION PERFORMANCE: A FIRST VIEW TO THE BRAZILIAN PROCESS Maria Carolina Leme, Escola de Economia de São Paulo Fundação Getulio Vargas Co-Authors: Ricardo Paredes, Universidad Católica de Chile and André Souza, FGV
RE-EVALUATING CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFERS: IS THE OPORTUNIDADES PRIMARY SCHOOL STIPEND NECESSARY? Marta Rubio-Codina, University College of London Co-Author: Orazio Attanasio, University College London and Institute for Fiscal Studies
REALITY VERSUS PROPAGANDA IN THE FORMATION OF BELIEFS ABOUT WATER PRIVATIZATION Rafael Di Tella, Harvard Business School Co-Authors: Sebastian Galiani, Washington University in St Louis and Ernesto Schargrodsky, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
35 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
16:30 - 18:00 POLITICAL ECONOMY I (LACEA) Room 236 Chairperson: Alberto Pinto, Universidade do Minho
THE CHOICES GOVERNORS MAKE: THE ROLE OF CHECKS & BALANCES AND POLITICAL COMPETITION Marcus Melo, University of Pernambuco Co-Authors: Lee Alston, University of Colorado, Bernardo Mueller, CERME - University of Brasilia and Carlos Pereira, Michigan State University
LOBBYING AND INFORMATION TRANSMISSION IN CUSTOMS UNIONS Rafael Costa Lima, FGV/EPGE Co-Authors: Humberto Moreira, FGV -- EPGE and Thierry Verdier, Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques
COORDINATION EXTERNALITIES IN FEDERAL SYSTEMS Antoine Loeper, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University
SIGNALLING TO THE HOME POLICYMAKER Alberto Pinto, Universidade do Minho Co-Authors: Fernanda A. Ferreira, ESEIG, Instituto Politécnico do Porto and Humberto Moreira, FGV -- EPGE
16:30 - 18:00 MACROECONOMICS: EXTERNAL Room 331 SHOCKS (LACEA) Chairperson: Sebastian Sosa, International Monetary Fund
INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SHOCKS IN EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES Michael Brei, Bonn Graduate School of Economics Co-Author: Almira Buzaushina, Bonn Graduate School of Economics
GLOBAL CREDIT SHOCKS, REAL INTEREST RATE AND BUSINESS CYCLES IN EMERGING ECONOMIES Sarquis Sarquis, IRBr (Brazil), FMG/LSE (UK)
BALANCE SHEET EFFECTS IN CURRENCY CRISES: EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL Marcio Janot, Banco Central do Brasil e PUC-Rio Co-Authors: Márcio G. P. Garcia, PUC-Rio and Walter Novaes, PUC- Rio
EXTERNAL SHOCKS AND BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS IN MEXICO: HOW IMPORTANT ARE U.S. FACTORS? Sebastian Sosa, International Monetary Fund
16:30 - 18:00 FAMILY AND EDUCATION I (LACEA) Room 335 Chairperson: André Souza, FGV
SOCIAL SECURITY EFFECTS ON INCOME DISTRIBUTION: COUNTERFACTUAL ANALYSIS FOR BRAZIL Rodrigo Moura, EPGE/FGV Co-Authors: Jaime Jesus Filho, University of Chicago, Ligia Ourives, EPGE/FGV and Brazilian National Treasury Secretariat and Paulo Tafner, IPEA
36 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
TRENDS IN INTERGENERATIONAL EARNINGS AND EDUCATIONAL MOBILITY: THE CASE OF CHILE Leslie Miranda, Centro de Microdatos, Universidad de Chile Co-Author: Javier Nuñez, Universidad de Chile
DOES THE GRADIENT MATTER? FURTHER UNDERSTANDING THE INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF HUMAN CAPITAL André Souza, FGV Co-Author: George Jakubson, Cornell Univeristy
IDENTITY AND EDUCATIONAL CHOICE: A BEHAVIORAL APPROACH Yuemei Ji, K.U.Leuven
16:30 - 18:00 BANKING (LACEA) Room 349 Chairperson: Marcio Nakane, Sao Paulo University
IDENTIFYING BANK LENDING REACTION TO MONETARY POLICY THROUGH DATA FREQUENCY Christiano Arrigoni Coelho, PUC-Rio Co-Authors: João Manoel De Mello, PUC-Rio and Márcio G. P. Garcia, PUC-Rio
IS THE BRAZILIAN BANKING SYSTEM COMPETITIVE? Claudio Lucinda, Fundação Getúlio Vargas
BANK LOAN SECURITIZATION: AN ALTERNATIVE FOR BANKS TO FIND LIQUIDITY Mónica Vargas Martínez, Universidad del Rosario
ENTRIES, EXITS AND RESOURCE ALLOCATION: AN ANALYSIS OF THE BANKING INTERMEDIATION IN BRAZIL Marcio Nakane, Sao Paulo University Co-Author: Bruno Rocha, Tendências Consultoria Integrada
16:30 - 18:00 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS I (LACEA) Room 401 Chairperson: Facundo Albornoz, University of Birmingham
TAX POLICY AS A COMPETITIVENESS MECHANISM TO ATTRACT MANUFACTURING FDI INFLOWS: AN APPLICATION TO THE LATIN-AMERICAN Fernando Mesa, National Planning Department, Colombia Co-Author: Rafael Isidro Parra-Pena Somoza, Researcher for ECLAC (U.N)
PRODUCTION SHARING AND BUSINESS CYCLE CO-MOVEMENTS WITH HETEROGENEOUS FIRMS Andrei Zlate, Boston College
CHRONICLE OF LARGE CURRENCY DEVALUATIONS: RE- EXAMINING THE EFFECTS ON OUTPUT Camilo Tovar, Bank for International Settlements Co-Author: Sweta Saxena, Bank for International Settlements
INVESTMENT AND EXPROPRIATION UNDER OLIGARCHY AND DEMOCRACY IN A HECKSCHER-OHLIN WORLD Facundo Albornoz, University of Birmingham Co-Authors: Sebastian Galiani, Washington University in St Louis and Daniel Heymann, Cepal
37 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
16:30 - 18:00 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LAMES - Econometrics and Empirical Economics
16:30 - 18:00 GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT I (LAMES Room 130 EEE) Chairperson: Eduardo Martinez-Chombo, Banco de Mexico
FINANCIAL MARKETS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: BEYOND BANKS AND STOCK MARKETS, THE ROLE OF INSURANCE MARKETS. A CROSS-COUNTRY STUDY FOR INDUSTRIALIZED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Marco Arena, World Bank
THE INFLUENCE OF TOURISM OVER ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE MEXICAN CASE José Luis de la Cruz Gallegos, Tecnológico de Monterrey, campus Estado de México Co-Authors: Carlos Canfield, Tecnológico de Monterrey, campus Estado de México and Eduardo Carbajal , Tecnológico de Monterrey, campus Estado de México
HETEROGENEITIES AND VOLATILITY: CONVERGENCE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Maria Elisa Farias, Universidad de Chile
LAG STRUCTURE BETWEEN ELECTRICITY INFRASTRUCTURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN MEXICO Eduardo Martinez-Chombo, Banco de Mexico
16:30 - 18:00 TREATMENT EFFECTS AND ANALISYS Room 132 OF EDUCATION (LAMES EEE) Chairperson: Eskil Heinesen, AKF, Danish Institute of Governmental Research
THE IMPACT OF THE BOLSA ESCOLA/FAMILIA CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFER PROGRAM ON ENROLLMENT, DROP OUT RATES AND GRADE PROMOTION IN BRAZIL Ana Lucia Kassouf, Esalq, Universidade Sao Paulo Co-Author: Paul Glewwe, University of Minnesota
SEMIPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF PEER EFFECTS IN CLASSROOMS: EVIDENCE FOR BRAZILIAN SCHOOLS IN 2003 Cristine Campos de Xavier Pinto, CEDEPLAR/UFMG
FINITE SAMPLE PROPERTIES OF SEMIPARAMETRIC ESTIMATORS OF AVERAGE TREATMENT EFFECTS Matias Busso, Inter-American Development Bank
ESTIMATING CLASS-SIZE EFFECTS USING WITHIN-SCHOOL VARIATION IN SUBJECT-SPECIFIC CLASSES Eskil Heinesen, AKF, Danish Institute of Governmental Research
16:30 - 18:00 MIGRATION (LAMES EEE) Room 329 Chairperson: Christian Bayer, IGIER, Università Commerciale L. Bocconi
THE EFFECT OF MIGRANT NETWORKS ON MEXICAN MIGRATION Su-Hsin Chang, Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University
38 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
INTERNAL MIGRATION, SELECTION BIAS AND REGIONAL RETURNS TO SCHOOLING IN BRAZIL Eduardo Ribeiro, Institute of Economics / UFRJ Co-Author: Viviane Bastos, Georgia State University
CONVERGENCE IN THE UNITED STATES: A TALE OF MIGRATION AND URBANIZATION Riccardo DiCecio, FRB of St. Louis Co-Author: Charles Gascon, FRB of St. Louis
ON THE DYNAMICS OF INTERSTATE MIGRATION: MIGRATION COSTS AND SELF-SELECTION Christian Bayer, IGIER, Università Commerciale L. Bocconi Co-Author: Falko Juessen, TU Dortmund University
16:30 - 18:00 ECONOMETRIC THEORY I (LAMES EEE) Room 345 Chairperson: Valderio Reisen, UFES
TESTING FOR SAMPLE SELECTION BIAS IN PSEUDO PANELS: THEORY AND MONTE CARLO Jhon Mora, Universidad ICESI Co-Author: Juan Muro, Universidad de Alcala
BOOTSTRAP FOR PANEL REGRESSION MODELS WITH RANDOM EFFECTS Bertrand Hounkannounon, Department of Economics, Université de Montréal
PENALIZED QUANTILE REGRESSION IN SPARSE HIGH- DIMENSIONAL MODELS Alexandre Belloni, Duke University Co-Author: Victor Chernozhukov,
BOOTSTRAP LOG-AVERAGE SAMPLE SPECTRAL ESTIMATOR OF THE FRACTIONAL PARAMETER IN ARFIMA MODELS Valderio Reisen, UFES Co-Authors: Giovanni Comarela, UFES and Glaura Franco, UFMG
16:30 - 18:00 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LAMES - Theoretical and Applied Economics
16:30 - 18:00 EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS (LAMES Room 224 TAE) Chairperson: Juan Dubra, Universidad de Montevideo
SOCIAL LEARNING THROUGH ENDOGENOUS INFORMATION ACQUISITION: AN EXPERIMENT Bogachan Celen, Columbia University Co-Author: Kyle Hyndman, SMU
HOW COSTLY IS DIVERSITY? AFFIRMATIVE ACTION IN LIGHT OF GENDER DIFFERENCES IN COMPETITIVENESS Segal Carmit, Universitat Pompeu Fabra Co-Authors: Muriel Niederle, Stanford University and Lise Vesterlund, University of Pittsburgh
39 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
ARE VIOLATIONS OF INDEPENDENCE ERRORS? AN EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION Ulrich Schmidt, University of Kiel Co-Author: Michael Birnbaum, CSUF
OVERCONFIDENCE? Juan Dubra, Universidad de Montevideo Co-Author: Jean-Pierre Benoit, London Business School
16:30 - 18:00 NONCOOPERATIVE GAMES (LAMES TAE) Room 228 Chairperson: Sergio O. Parreiras, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
MULTIPLE OPPONENTS AND THE LIMITS OF REPUTATION Sambuddha Ghosh, Boston Univ., Princeton Univ.
ON RISK AVERSION IN THE RUBINSTEIN BARGAINING GAME Emanuel Kohlscheen, University of Warwick Co-Author: Steve O'Connell, Swarthmore College
ON THE EXISTENCE OF NASH EQUILIBRIA IN DISCONTINUOUS AND QUALITATIVE GAMES Paulo Barelli, University of Rochester Co-Author: Idione Soza, University of Rochester
CONTESTS WITH THREE OR MORE HETEROGENEOUS AGENTS Sergio O. Parreiras, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Co-Author: Anna Rubinchik, University of Colorado at Boulder
16:30 - 18:00 RBC MODELS (LAMES TAE) Room 333 Chairperson: Alexandre Cunha, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro
CYCLICAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING, INCOME INEQUALITY AND WELFARE IN SMALL OPEN ECONOMIES G.C. Lim, University of Melbourne Co-Author: Paul McNelis, Fordham University
GOVERNMENT SIZE AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY: THE ROLE OF DEMOGRAPHICS Alexandre Janiak, CEA, University of Chile and IZA Co-Author: Paulo Santos-Monteiro, Warwick
IMMIGRATION AND THE MACROECONOMY: AN INTERNATIONAL REAL BUSINESS CYCLE MODEL Federico Mandelman, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Co-Author: Andrei Zlate, Boston College
IMPLICATIONS OF THE MODIGLIANI-MILLER THEOREM FOR THE STUDY OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES Alexandre Cunha, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro
16:30 - 18:00 PREFERENCES AND DECISION-MAKING I Room 347 (LAMES TAE) Chairperson: Ricard Torres, ITAM and Universitat de Girona
ROBUST HIDDEN MARKOV LQG PROBLEMS Ricardo Mayer, University of Chicago and UDP Co-Authors: Lars Peter Hansen, University of Chicago and Thomas Sargent, New York University
40 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
ADDITIVE SEPARABILITY, OPTIMIZATION, AND TRIVIAL WEBS Thomas Russell, Santa Clara University
OPTIMAL CONSUMPTION UNDER LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS AND BOUNDED RATIONALITY Özak Ömer, Brown University Co-Author: Peter Howitt, Brown University
STATE SPACE DIMENSIONS AND BELIEF UPDATING Ricard Torres, ITAM and Universitat de Girona
18:00 - 19:00 LACEA PLENARY SESSIONS
18:00 - 19:00 IDB SPECIAL SESSION: SCIENCE OF HAPPINESS (18- Room Auditorium 1 19HS) (LACEA) Chairperson: Jere Behrman, University of Pennsylvania Discussant: Carol Graham, Brookings Institution
This Session is Sponsored by the IDB
BOOK PRESENTATION: "BEYOND FACTS, UNDERSTANDING QUALITY OF LIFE" Eduardo Lora, Chief Economist and General Manager, Research Department, IDB
SPEAKER Bernard Van Praag, Amsterdam University
18:00 - 19:00 BIS ROUND TABLE: CHALLENGES TO INFLATION Room Auditorium 2 TARGETING (LACEA) Chairperson: Mar Gudmundsson, Deputy Head of the BIS Monetary and Economic Department
This Session is sponsored by the BIS
PANELIST 1 José De Gregorio, Governor - Central Bank of Chile
PANELIST 2 John Murray, Deputy Governor - Bank of Canada
PANELIST 3 Mario Torós, Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy
PANELIST 4 Guillermo Calvo, Professor of Economics, International & Public Affairs - Columbia University
18:00 - 19:30 LAMES INVITED SESSIONS
18:00 - 19:30 CONSUMER PROTECTION AND ENFORCEMENT Room Auditorium 3 (LAMES) Chairperson: Luis Fernando Schuartz, FGV-RJ
41 THURSDAY 20 NOVEMBER 2008
CONSUMER PROTECTION AND THE INCENTIVE TO BECOME INFORMED Mark Armstrong, Department of Economics, University College London Co-Author(s): John Vickers, All Souls College, University of Oxford and Jidong Zhou, Department of Economics, University College London
LET THE PUNISHMENT FIT THE CRIME: ENFORCEMENT WITH ERROR Preston McAfee, Caltech, Yahoo Co-Author(s): Indranil Chakraborty, National University of Singapore
18:00 - 19:30 IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF MODELS Room 224 USING PANEL DATA (LAMES) Chairperson: Ignacio Lobato, ITAM
IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF 'IRREGULAR' CORRELATED RANDOM COEFFICIENT MODELS James Powell, University of California, Berkeley Co-Author(s): Bryan S. Graham, University of California, Berkeley
A MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD FOR THE INCIDENTAL PARAMETER PROBLEM Marcelo J. Moreira, Columbia University and EPGE/FGV
18:00 - 19:30 FINANCE (LAMES) Room 228 Chairperson: Jorge Zubelli, IMPA
RISK AVERSION AND THE ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION IN GENERAL DYNAMIC PORTFOLIO THEORY: CONSISTENT PLANNING BY FORWARD LOOKING, EXPECTED UTILITY MAXIMIZING INVESTORS Richard E. Kihlstrom, University of Pennsylvania
HISTORICAL VOLATILITY ESTIMATION Bruno Dupire, Bloomberg L.P./NYU
19:00 - 20:00 LACEA PLENARY SESSION
19:00 - 20:00 WORLD BANK SPONSORED PLENARY SESSION: Room Auditorium 2 EMERGING MARKETS AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY: LESSONS FROM BRICS (LACEA) Chairperson: Alexandre Tombini, Director of Norms - Brazilian Central Bank
This Session is Sponsored by the World Bank
PANELIST 1 Justin Lin, Chief Economist for the World Bank
PANELIST 2 Abhijit Banerjee, MIT
PANELIST 3 Armínio Fraga, Gávea Investimentos
20:00 COCKTAIL
42 FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
DAY OVERVIEW
08:15 - 09:45 Sponsored and Contributed Sessions 09:45 - 10:00 Coffee Break 10:00 - 11:00 Invited Lectures 11:00 - 12:30 Invited Lectures and Sessions and Sponsored Session 12:30 - 13:15 Lunch 13:15 - 14:45 Sponsored and Contributed Sessions 14:45 - 16:15 Invited and Sponsored Lectures 16:15 - 16:30 Coffee Break 16:30 - 17:30 Keynote Lecture 17:30 - 18:30 Invited Lectures 18:30 - 19:30 Plenary Session and Presidential Address 20:30 Conference Dinner
08:15 - 09:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LACEA
08:15 - 09:45 IDB SPONSORED SESSION: Room Auditorium 1 REASSESSING QUALITY OF EDUCATION IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (LACEA) Chairperson: Suzanne Duryea, Inter- American Development Bank
This Session is sponsored by the IDB
PANELIST 1 Jorge Manzi, Universidad Católica de Chile
PANELIST 2 Naercio Menezes-Filho, FEA-USP and Ibmec/SP
08:15 - 09:45 OECD LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC Room Auditorium 2 OUTLOOK (LACEA) Chairperson: Jeff Dayton-Johnson, OECD
PANELIST 1 Ricardo Hausmann, Director of the Center for International Development, Harvard University
PANELIST 2 Augusto de la Torre, Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean, World Bank
PANELIST 3 Eduardo Lora, Chief Economist and General Manager, Research Department, IDB
43 FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
PANELIST 4 Mariano Tommasi, Professor of Economics, Universidad de San Andres and Director of the Center of Studies for Institutional Development
PANELIST 5 Mauricio Cárdenas, Brookings Institute and LACEA
PANELIST 6 Ernesto Stein, Lead Research Economist at Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank
PANELIST 7 Ugo Panizza, Unctad
PANELIST 8 Ernesto Talvi, Executive Director, CERES
08:15 - 09:45 BBVA SPONSORED SESSION: ASIA AND Room Auditorium 3 LATIN AMERICA FACING THE CRISIS: HOW MUCH CONTAGION, HOW MUCH DECOUPLING? (LACEA) Chairperson: Guillermo Perry, Fedesarrollo
This Session is Sponsored by BBVA
PANELIST 1 Alicia Garcia Herrero, BBVA
PANELIST 2 Guillermo Perry, Fedesarrollo
PANELIST 3 Antoni Estevadeordal, Inter-American Development Bank
PANELIST 4 Hiro Kawai, World Bank
08:15 - 09:45 LABOR ECONOMICS III (LACEA) Room 206 Chairperson: Manuel Barron, International Food Policy Research Institute
REGIONAL IMBALANCES AND MARKET POTENTIAL IN BRAZIL Mauro LEMOS, Cedeplar/UFMG Co-Authors: Pedro Amaral, CEDEPLAR/UFMG, Flávia Chein, CEDEPLAR/FACE/UFMG and Rodrigo SIMÕES, Cedeplar/UFMG
MEXICO IN THE 1990S: THE MAIN CROSS-SECTIONAL FACTS Chiara Binelli, Oxford University Co-Author: Orazio Attanasio, University College London and Institute for Fiscal Studies
TRANSANTIAGO AND THE LABOR MARKET David Bravo, Centro de Microdatos, Departamento de Economia, Universidad de Chile Co-Author: claudia martinez, Centro de Microdatos, Dept. Economics, Universidad de Chile
DETERMINANTS OF TIME ALLOCATION TO RURAL NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT IN CENTRAL AMERICA: THE ROLE OF INFRASTRUCTURE AND EDUCATION Manuel Barron, International Food Policy Research Institute Co-Author: Maximo Torero, IFPRI
44 FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
08:15 - 09:45 CREDIT AND BANKRUPTCY (LACEA) Room 232 Chairperson: Susan Schommer, IMPA - Instituto Nacional de Matematica Pura e Aplicada
DO REORGANIZATION COSTS MATTER FOR EFFICIENCY? EVIDENCE FROM A BANKRUPTCY REFORM IN COLOMBIA Inessa Love, The World Bank Co-Author: Xavier Gine, The World bank
CREDIT CARD HOLDING AND USAGE IN MEXICO: EVIDENCE FROM THE NATIONAL SURVEY OF HOUSEHOLDS' INCOME AND EXPENDITURES 2006 Castellanos Sara, Secretaría de Economía, México Co-Author: Daniel Garrido, Banco de México
CREDIT CONSTRAINTS AND THE DEMAND FOR HIGHER EDUCATION IN LATIN AMERICA Mariana Alfonso, Inter-American Development Bank
REGULATED COLLATERAL WITH INCOMPLETE MARKETS Susan Schommer, IMPA - Instituto Nacional de Matematica Pura e Aplicada Co-Authors: Aloisio Araujo, FGV/EPGE and IMPA and Felix Kubler, University of Zurich
08:15 - 09:45 MONETARY POLICY I (LACEA) Room 236 Chairperson: Michael Binder, Goethe University Frankfurt
OPTIMAL MONETARY AND AUDIT POLICY WITH IMPERFECT TAXATION Marcelo Arbex, University of Windsor Co-Author: Nurlan Turdaliev, University of Windsor
OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY UNDER ASSET MARKET SEGMENTATION Rajesh Singh, Iowa State University Co-Authors: Amartya Lahiri, University of British Columbia and Carlos Vegh, university of maryland
WHAT CAN TAYLOR RULES SAY ABOUT MONETARY POLICY IN LATIN AMERICA? Alexandre de Carvalho, IBMEC SÃO PAULO Co-Author: Marcelo Moura, IBMEC SAO PAULO
ON THE EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS ON EXCHANGE RATES: A MULTILATERAL VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION APPROACH Michael Binder, Goethe University Frankfurt Co-Authors: Qianying Chen, Goethe University Frankfurt and Xuan Zhang, Goethe University Frankfurt
08:15 - 09:45 THE ECONOMICS OF CRIME I (LACEA) Room 329 Chairperson: Igor Barenboim, Harvard University
GUN CONTROL, CRIME AND RISK AVERSION Cristiano Aguiar de Oliveira, UFRGS
45 FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
PREVENTION AND CONTROL OF HOMICIDES: AN EVALUATION OF IMPACT IN BRAZIL Betânia Peixoto, CEDEPLAR/UFMG; FJP Co-Authors: Joao Pedro Azevedo, World Bank and Monica Viegas Andrade, CEDEPLAR-UFMG
DOES CRIME BREED INEQUALITY? EVIDENCE FROM THE FAVELAS OF RIO DE JANEIRO Igor Barenboim, Harvard University Co-Author: Filipe Campante, Harvard University
08:15 - 09:45 SOCIAL INTERACTIONS (LACEA) Room 331 Chairperson: Renos Vakis, World Bank
NETWORK STRUCTURE IN A LINK FORMATION GAME: AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY Roberto Muñoz, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María Co-Authors: Alexander Elbittar, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Economicas (CIDE) and Rodrigo Harrison, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
DO WELFARE PROGRAMS DAMAGE INTERPERSONAL TRUST? EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLES FOR FOUR LATIN AMERICAN CITIES F. Vanessa Rios, Inter-American Development Bank Co-Authors: Alberto Chong, Inter-American Development Bank and Hugo Nopo, Inter-American Development Bank
THE ROLE OF SOCIAL CAPITAL ON INDIVIDUAL INCOMES IN BRAZIL Alexandre Barros, Federal University of Pernambuco Co-Author: Cristiane Mesquita, PIMES - Federal University of Pernambuco
CHANGING HOUSEHOLDS’ INVESTMENTS AND ASPIRATIONS THROUGH SOCIAL INTERACTIONS: EVIDENCE FROM A RANDOMIZED TRANSFER PROGRAM IN A LOW-INCOME COUNTRY Renos Vakis, World Bank Co-Author: Karen Macours, Johns Hopkins University
08:15 - 09:45 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (LACEA) Room 335 Chairperson: Alessandro Maffioli, Inter- American Development Bank
A HARD ROW TO HOE: SMALL-SCALE FARMING ON THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON FRONTIER UNDER INCOMPLETE PROPERTY RIGHTS Robert Tatum, University of North Carolina - Asheville
AMBIGUITY AVERSION AND PORTFOLIO CHOICE IN SMALL- SCALE PERUVIAN FARMING Sonia Laszlo, McGill University Co-Authors: Jim Engle-Warnick, McGill University and Javier Escobal, GRADE
TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION IN UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENTS Pilar Useche, University of Florida
46 FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION SERVICES: THE CASE OF GRAPE PRODUCTION IN ARGENTINA Alessandro Maffioli, Inter-American Development Bank Co-Authors: Pedro Cerdán-Infantes, Inter-American Development Bank and Diego Ubfal, University of California at Los Angeles
08:15 - 09:45 POVERTY AND WELFARE II (LACEA) Room 349 Chairperson: Diego Arias, World Bank
NUTRITIONAL SUPPLEMENTATION OF GIRLS INFLUENCES THE GROWTH OF THEIR CHILDREN: PROSPECTIVE STUDY IN GUATEMALA Maria Cecilia Calderon, University of Pennsylvania Co-Authors: Jere Behrman, University of Pennsylvania, John Hoddinott, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Reynaldo Martorell, Emory University, Samuel Preston, University of Pennsylvania and Aryeh Stein, Emory University
CHRONIC VERSUS ACUTE CONDITIONS: UNDERSTANDING THE INCOME GRADIENT IN BRAZIL Anna Crespo, Princeton University
THE IMPACT OF FOOD PRICE INCREASES ON POVERTY IN MEXICO Juan Carlos Chavez, CEFP / Universidad de Guanajuato Co-Author: Hector J. Villarreal, EGAP ITESM / CEFP
HAITI’S FOOD SUPPORT STRUCTURE: RESPONDING TO THE FOOD CRISIS Diego Arias, World Bank Co-Authors: Giau Nguyen, Harvard University, Hector Pena, University of Essex and Christopher Sutton, Harvard University
08:15 - 09:45 FINANCIAL CRISIS (LACEA) Room 401 Chairperson: Jihad Dagher, International Monetary Fund
CREDIT CHANNEL AND FLIGHT TO QUALITY IN EMERGING MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM CHILE Rodrigo Troncoso, Universidad Diego Portales
FINANCIAL FRICTIONS, CRISES AND RECOVERIES Guillermo Ordonez, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
EFFECTS OF A FINANCIAL CRISIS ON OCCUPATIONAL CHOICE: AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION Gabriel Madeira, Universidade de São Paulo
SUDDEN STOPS, OUTPUT DROPS AND CREDIT COLLAPSES Jihad Dagher, International Monetary Fund
08:15 - 09:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LAMES - Econometrics and Empirical Economics
08:15 - 09:45 TESTING: DENSITY AND UNIT ROOT Room 132 (LAMES EEE) Chairperson: Jesus Otero, Universidad del Rosario
47 FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
ROOT-N-UNIFORMLY CONSISTENT DENSITY ESTIMATION IN NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION MODELS David Tomás Jacho-Chávez, Indiana University Co-Author: Juan Carlos Escanciano, Indiana University
SMALL BANDWIDTH ASYMPTOTICS FOR DENSITY-WEIGHTED AVERAGE DERIVATIVES Matias Cattaneo, University of Michigan Co-Authors: Richard Crump, University of California at Berkeley and Michael Jansson, University of California at Berkeley
UNIT ROOT TESTING WITH STATIONARY COVARIATES AND A STRUCTURAL BREAK IN THE TREND FUNCTION Sebastian Fossati, University of Washington
TESTING FOR UNIT ROOTS IN THREE-DIMENSIONAL HETEROGENEOUS PANELS IN THE PRESENCE OF CROSS- SECTIONAL DEPENDENCE Jesus Otero, Universidad del Rosario Co-Authors: Giulietti Monica, Aston Business School and Jeremy Smith, University of Warwick
08:15 - 09:45 PUBLIC FINANCE (LAMES EEE) Room 345 Chairperson: Enlinson Mattos, Getulio Vargas Foundation - Sao Paulo School of Economics
3-STEP ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC FINANCES SUSTAINABILITY: THE CASE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION Antonio Afonso, ECB and ISEG/UTL
DEMOCRACY AND REFORMS Prachi Mishra, Research Department, IMF and Antonio Spilimbergo, IMF Co-Author: Paola Giuliano, UCLA
RICARDIAN EQUIVALENCE THEOREM IN ''A FEW LINES'' Jaime Orrillo, Catholic University of Brasilia Co-Author: Jose Angelo Divino, Catholic University of Brasilia
ON THE MARGINAL SOCIAL COST OF CASH-CUM-IN-KIND TRANSFERS Enlinson Mattos, Getulio Vargas Foundation - Sao Paulo School of Economics Co-Authors: Lucas Duarte, Getulio Vargas Foundation - Sao Paulo School of Economics and Juliana Serillo, Getulio Vargas Foundation - Sao Paulo School of Economics
08:15 - 09:45 ECONOMETRIC THEORY: Room 347 MACROECONOMICS (LAMES EEE) Chairperson: Eduardo Ley, The World Bank
A FRAMEWORK FOR ESTIMATING STRUCTURAL DYNAMIC MODELS WITH AGGREGATE SHOCKS WITH AN APPLICATION TO MORTGAGE DEFAULT IN COLOMBIA BETWEEN 1997 AND 2004 Juan Esteban Carranza, University of Wisconsin-Madison Co-Author: Salvador Navarro, University of Wisconsin-Madison
48 FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
EFFICIENT LIKELIHOOD EVALUATION OF NONLINEAR RBC MODELS Guilherme Valle Moura, University of Kiel, Germany Co-Authors: David DeJong, University of Pittsburgh, Roman Lisenfeld, University of Kiel and Jean-Francois Richard, University of Pittsburgh
IMPULSE RESPONSE MODELS IN VARIANCE AND COVARIANCE Christos Ioannidis, School of Management-Univerisyt of Bath Co-Author: Julian Williams, university of aberdeen
ON THE EFFECT OF PRIOR ASSUMPTIONS IN BAYESIAN MODEL AVERAGING WITH APPLICATIONS TO GROWTH REGRESSION Eduardo Ley, The World Bank Co-Author: Mark Steel, University of Warwick
08:15 - 09:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LAMES - Theoretical and Applied Economics
08:15 - 09:45 PRICE DYNAMICS (LAMES TAE) Room 130 Chairperson: Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Bank of Canada
CAN EXCHANGE RATES FORECAST COMMODITY PRICES? Yu-chin Chen, University of Washington Co-Authors: Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University and Barbara Rossi, Duke University
WAGE AND PRICE DYNAMICS IN PORTUGAL Carlos Robalo Marques, Banco de Portugal
A MULTI-SECTORAL APPROACH TO THE U.S. GREAT DEPRESSION Pedro Amaral, Southern Methodist University Co-Author: James MacGee, University of western Ontario
INVENTORIES, MARKUPS, AND REAL RIGIDITIES IN MENU COST MODELS Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Bank of Canada
08:15 - 09:45 FINANCIAL ECONOMICS II (LAMES TAE) Room 224 Chairperson: Georgios Skoulakis, University of Maryland
CHERRY-PICKING AND ASSET COMPLEXITY: A THEORY OF RATINGS INFLATION Vasiliki Skreta, NYU, Stern School of Business Co-Author: Laura Veldkamp, NYU, Stern
PUBLIC INFORMATION AND COORDINATION: EVIDENCE FROM A CREDIT REGISTRY EXPANSION Daniel Paravisini, Columbia University Co-Authors: Andrew Hertzberg, Columbia University and Jose Liberti, DePaul University
NONPARAMETRIC LINEAR REGRESSION TO SPOT THE VOLATILITY Isabel Casas, CREATES (University of Aarhus) Co-Author: Irene Gijbels, K.U. Leuven
49 FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
DO SUBJECTIVE EXPECTATIONS EXPLAIN ASSET PRICING PUZZLES? Georgios Skoulakis, University of Maryland Co-Author: Gurdip Bakshi, University of Maryland
08:15 - 09:45 GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM I (LAMES TAE) Room 228 Chairperson: V. Filipe Martins-da-Rocha, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation
THE DYNAMICS OF EFFICIENT ASSET TRADING WITH HETEROGENEOUS BELIEFS Emilio Espino, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella Co-Author: Pablo Beker, University of Warwick
LEVERAGE CYCLES AND THE ANXIOUS ECONOMY Ana Fostel, George Washington University Co-Author: John Geanakoplos, Yale University
WALRASIAN EQUILIBRIUM AS LIMIT OF A COMPETITIVE EQUILIBRIUM WITHOUT DIVISIBLE GOODS Rivera Jorge, Departamento de Economia, U. de Chile Co-Author: Florig Michael, University of Paris 1
BELIEF FORMATION AND THE INFORMATION REVEALED BY ENDOGENOUS BORROWING CONSTRAINTS V. Filipe Martins-da-Rocha, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation Co-Author: Yiannis Vailakis, School of Business and Economics, University of Exeter
08:15 - 09:45 EXPERIMENTAL GAMES (LAMES TAE) Room 333 Chairperson: Andrei Gomberg, ITAM
ENDOGENOUS COMMUNICATION AND TACIT COORDINATION IN MARKET ENTRY GAMES -AN EXPLORATIVE EXPERIMENTAL STUDY Håkan Holm, Lund University Co-Author: Ola Andersson, Stockholm School of Economics
CO-EVOLUTION OF INEQUITY-AVERSE AGENTS Daniel Arce, University of Texas at Dallas
UNDERSTANDING TRUST Anna Toldra Simats, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University Co-Authors: Paola Sapienza, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University and Luigi Zingales, GSB, University of Chicago
A LABORATORY STYDY OF DEMAND REDUCTION AND COLLUSION IN UNIFORM AND DISCRIMINATORY-PRICE AUCTIONS Andrei Gomberg, ITAM Co-Author: Alexander Elbittar, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Economicas (CIDE)
09:45 - 10:00 COFFEE BREAK
50 FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
10:00 - 11:00 INVITED LECTURES LACEA
10:00 - 11:00 CARLOS ALEJANDRO DIAZ PRIZE: Room Auditorium 2 WINNER LECTURE (LACEA) Chairperson: TBA
TBA Jere Behrman, University of Pennsylvania
10:00 - 11:00 INVITED LECTURES LAMES
10:00 - 11:00 SPECIAL LECTURE - SPONSORED BY Room Auditorium 1 BANCO ITAÚ (LAMES) Chairperson: Paulo Klinger Monteiro, EPGE - FGV
INCENTIVES TO CULTIVATE SPECIAL INTEREST GROUPS UNDER ALTERNATIVE ELECTORAL SYSTEMS Roger Myerson, University of Chicago
10:00 - 11:00 SPECIAL LECTURE (LAMES) Room Auditorium 3 Chairperson: João Victor Issler, FGV/EPGE/RJ
ECONONOMIC MODELS AND MOMENT INEQUALITY ESTIMATORS Ariel Pakes, Harvard University
11:00 - 12:30 INVITED LECTURES AND SESSIONS LACEA
11:00 - 12:30 MACROECONOMICS II (LACEA) Room Auditorium 1 Chairperson: Carlos E. da Costa, Fundação Getulio Vargas
LESSONS FROM THE NEW DYNAMIC PUBLIC FINANCE Narayana Kocherlakota, University of Minnesota
EQUILIBRIUM DEFAULT Hugo Hopenhayn, University of California, Los Angeles Co-Author: Iván Werning, MIT
11:00 - 12:30 DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS II (LACEA) Room Auditorium 3 Chairperson: Juliano Assunção, Departamento de Economia PUC-Rio
NUTRITION AND CHILD CARE CHOICES IN RURAL COLOMBIA Orazio Attanasio, University College London and Institute for Fiscal Studies
PAROCHIAL POLITICS: ETHNIC PREFERENCES AND POLITICIAN CORRUPTION Abhijit Banerjee, MIT Co-Author: Rohini Pande, Harvard University
51 FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
11:00 - 12:30 POLITICAL ECONOMY II (LACEA) Room 228 Chairperson: Claudio Ferraz, PUC-Rio
WHAT MAKES PEOPLE VOTE? EVIDENCE FROM THREE FIELD EXPERIMENTS IN INDIA Rohini Pande, Harvard University
PRESS COVERAGE AND POLITICAL ACCOUNTABILITY David Strömberg, Stockholm University
SELF-ESTEEM, MORAL CAPITAL, AND WRONGDOING Ernesto Dal Bó, University of California at Berkeley
11:00 - 12:30 INVITED LECTURES AND SESSIONS LAMES
11:00 - 12:30 HURWICZ LECTURE (LAMES) Room Auditorium 2 Chairperson: TBA
THE LEVERAGE CYCLE AND THE PRESENT FINANCIAL CRISIS John Geanakoplos, Yale University
INSIDE AND OUTSIDE LIQUIDITY José Scheinkman, Princeton University Co-Authors: Patrick Bolton, Princeton University and Tano Santos, Columbia University
11:00 - 12:30 MECHANISM DESIGN (LAMES) Room 224 Chairperson: Humberto Moreira, FGV -- EPGE
MECHANISM DESIGN WITH BILATERAL CONTRACTING David Martimort, Université Toulouse Co-Author: Vianney Dequiedt, INRA
DYNAMIC MECHANISM DESIGN Ilya Segal, Stanford University
11:00 - 12:30 SPONSORED SESSION
11:00 - 12:30 IDB SPONSORED SESSION: THE FINANCIAL CRISIS Room 232 AND THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISMS TO LATIN AMERICA (LACEA) Chairperson: Andrew Powell, Inter- American Development Bank
This Session is sponsored by the IDB
PANELIST 1 Charles Calomiris, Columbia University
PANELIST 2 Mauricio Cárdenas, Brookings Institution and LACEA
PANELIST 3 Michael Gavin, Citadel Investment Group
12:30 - 13:15 LUNCH
52 FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
13:15 - 14:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LACEA
13:15 - 14:45 CAF PANEL ON INFRASTRUCTURE AND Room Auditorium 1 DEVELOPMENT (CAF FLAGSHIP 2009) (LACEA) Chairperson: Pablo Sanguinetti, CAF/UTDT Discussants: Mauricio Cárdenas, Brookings Institute and LACEA, Eduardo Engel, Department of Economics, Yale University and Guillermo Perry, Fedesarrollo
This Session is Sponsored by CAF
SPEAKERS Miguel Castilla, CAF and Pablo Sanguinetti, CAF/UTDT
13:15 - 14:45 IDB SPONSORED SESSION: GROWING Room Auditorium 2 PAINS: BINDING CONSTRAINTS TO PRODUCTIVE INVESTMENT IN LATIN AMERICA (LACEA) Chairperson: Octaviano Canuto, Vice- President, Inter-American Development Bank Discussants: Augusto de la Torre, Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean, World Bank, Ricardo Hausmann, Director of the Center for International Development, Harvard University, Charles Sabel, Columbia University and Andres Velasco, Harvard University
This Session is sponsored by the IDB
GROWING PAINS: BINDING CONSTRAINTS TO PRODUCTIVE INVESTMENT IN LATIN AMERICA Manuel Agosín, Universidad de Chile and Fidel Jaramillo, Inter- American Development Bank
13:15 - 14:45 UNDP SPONSORED SESSION: THE Room Auditorium 3 INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF INEQUALITY IN HUMAN DEVELOPMENT (LACEA) Chairperson: Luis Felipe López-Calva, Regional Bureau of Latin America and the Caribbean, UNDP
This Session is sponsored by the UNDP
THE INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF INEQUALITY IN LAC Isidro Soloaga, Colmex and UNDP Co-Author: Luis Felipe López-Calva, Regional Bureau of Latin America and the Caribbean, UNDP
MOBILITY AND ASPIRATIONS AND THE TRANSMISSION OF INEQUALITY Garance Genicot, University of Georgetown Co-Author: Debraj Ray, NYU
53 FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
AGENCY, EMPOWERMENT AND THE TRANSMISSION OF INEQUALITY. Maria Emma Santos, Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, University of Oxford and CONICET-Universidad Nacional del Sur
COMMENTS TO UNDP´S PROJECT LAC-REGIONAL REPORT ON THE INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF INEQUALITY IN HUMAN DEVELOPMENT Jere Behrman, University of Pennsylvania
13:15 - 14:45 MONETARY POLICY II (LACEA) Room 206 Chairperson: Carlos Montoro, Universidad del Pacifico, Banco Central de Reserva del Peru
OPTIMAL INTEREST RATE RULES UNDER ENDOGENOUS FISCAL POLICY Mercedes Haga, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez
INFLATION TARGETING IN LATIN AMERICA: TOWARDS A MONETARY UNION? Marc Hofstetter, Universidad de los Andes
BEFORE AND AFTER INFLATION TARGETING: CHANGES IN THE MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM IN COLOMBIA. Munir Jalil, Associate Professor
MONETARY POLICY IN THE PRESENCE OF INFORMAL LABOUR MARKETS Carlos Montoro, Universidad del Pacifico, Banco Central de Reserva del Peru Co-Author: Paul Castillo, Banco Central de Reserva del Peru
13:15 - 14:45 DEVELOPMENT AND INSTITUTIONS Room 232 (LACEA) Chairperson: Jamele Rigolini, The World Bank
SCHOOLING AND POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IN A NEOCLASSICAL FRAMEWORK:THEORY AND EVIDENCE Filipe Campante, Harvard University Co-Author: Davin Chor, Singapore Management University
DEMOCRACY AND INEQUALITY: ELECTIONS AND REDISTRIBUTION IN BRAZIL Fabiana Machado, Inter-American Development Bank
EXCLUSIONARY POLICIES IN URBAN DEVELOPMENT: HOW UNDER-SERVICING MIGRANT HOUSEHOLDS AFFECTS THE GROWTH AND COMPOSITION OF BRAZILIAN CITIES Leo Feler, Brown University Co-Author: J. Vernon Henderson, Brown University
INFORMALITY TRENDS AND CYCLES Jamele Rigolini, The World Bank Co-Author: Norman Loayza, The World Bank
13:15 - 14:45 THE ECONOMICS OF CRIME II (LACEA) Room 236 Chairperson: Ernesto Schargrodsky, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
54 FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
PERCEPTIONS AND ATTITUDES TO TERRORIST SHOCKS: EVIDENCE FROM THE UK Catherine Mueller, DIW Berlin Co-Author: Carlos Bozzoli, DIW Berlin
TERRORIST SPECTACULARS: BACKLASH ATTACKS AND THE FOCUS OF INTELLIGENCE Daniel Arce, University of Texas at Dallas
THE WAR ON ILLEGAL DRUG PRODUCTION AND TRAFFICKING: AN ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF PLAN COLOMBIA Daniel Mejia, Universidad de los Andes and Fedesarrollo Co-Author: Pascual Restrepo, Universidad de los Andes
CRIMINAL RECIDIVISM AFTER PRISON AND ELECTRONIC MONITORING Ernesto Schargrodsky, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella Co-Author: Rafael Di Tella, Harvard Business School
13:15 - 14:45 POLITICAL CYCLES (LACEA) Room 329 Chairperson: Lorena Barberia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas
TERM LENGTH AND POLITICAL PERFORMANCE Martin Rossi, Universidad de San Andres Co-Author: Ernesto Dal Bó, University of California at Berkeley
MUNICIPALITY SECESSION, VOTER’S PREFERENCE AND PERSISTENCE OF POWER Enlinson Mattos, Getulio Vargas Foundation - Sao Paulo School of Economics Co-Authors: Paulo Arvate, FGV and Michigan State University and Vladimir Ponczek, FGV
CLIENTELISM-AUGMENTED POLITICAL BUDGET CYCLES. EVIDENCE FROM ARGENTINA Osvaldo Meloni, Universidad Nacional de Tucumán
DO POLITICAL BUDGET CYCLES DIFFER AMONG LATIN AMERICAN DEMOCRACIES? Lorena Barberia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas Co-Author: George Avelino F., Fundação Getúlio Vargas
13:15 - 14:45 POVERTY AND PUBLIC POLICY I (LACEA) Room 331 Chairperson: Matias Busso, Inter-American Development Bank
EFFICIENT DELIVERY OF CASH TRANSFERS TO THE POOR: IMPROVING THE DESIGN OF A CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFER PROGRAM IN ECUADOR Paul Carrillo, George Washington University
THE REAL BOTTOM LINE: BENCHMARKING PERFORMANCE IN POVERTY REDUCTION IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Joao Pedro Azevedo, World Bank Co-Authors: Ezequiel Molina, World Bank, John Newman, World Bank and Jaime Saavedra, World Bank
MEASURING THE POVERTY EFFECTS OF MARKET CONCENTRATION Carlos Rodríguez Castelán, Cornell University
55 FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
DO LOCAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS WORK? EVIDENCE FROM THE FEDERAL EMPOWERMENT ZONE PROGRAM Matias Busso, Inter-American Development Bank
13:15 - 14:45 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS II (LACEA) Room 335 Chairperson: Hanan Morsy, International Monetary Fund
EMERGING MARKET FLUCTUATIONS: WHAT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE? Constantino Hevia, The World Bank (DECRG)
CAPITAL FLOWS, GROWTH AND THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM Matias Fontenla, University of New Mexico
AN IEO EVALUATION OF STRUCTURAL CONDITIONALITY IN IMF– SUPPORTED PROGRAMS Ruben Lamdany, International Monetary Fund
CURRENT ACCOUNT DETERMINANTS FOR OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES Hanan Morsy, International Monetary Fund
13:15 - 14:45 FAMILY AND EDUCATION II (LACEA) Room 349 Chairperson: Felipe Barrera-Osorio, World Bank
APPAREL TRADE AND GENDER BIAS: LATIN AMERICA VS. ASIA William Gruben, TAMIU Co-Author: Darryl Mcleod, LACEA
IS IT WORTHWHILE TO FINISH? JOB-TRAINING PROGRAMMES AND LOW COMPLETION RATE: THE CASE OF PROJOVEN-PERU Henry Espinoza, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance
I'LL DIVORCE YOUR DAD AS SOON AS YOU GO TO KINDERGARTEN Ximena Quintanilla, University College London - Institute for Fiscal Studies Co-Author: Julio Caceres, Universidad Carlos III, Madrid
ON THE USE AND MISUSE OF COMPUTERS IN EDUCATION: EVIDENCE FROM A RANDOMIZED EXPERIMENT IN COLOMBIA Felipe Barrera-Osorio, World Bank Co-Author: Leigh Linden, Columbia University
13:15 - 14:45 LABOR ECONOMICS IV (LACEA) Room 401 Chairperson: Alberto P Gonzales Castillo, Inter-American Development Bank
DOES THE MINIMUM WAGE HAVE A HIGHER IMPACT ON THE INFORMAL THAN ON THE FORMAL LABOR MARKET? EVIDENCE FROM QUASI-EXPERIMENTS Melanie Khamis, London School of Economics and IZA
ARE INFORMAL WORKERS COMPENSATED FOR THE LACK OF FRINGE BENEFITS?FREE HEALTH CARE AS AN INSTRUMENT FOR FORMALITY Laura Juarez, CIE-ITAM
56 FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
FEMALE LABOR SUPPLY AND CHILD CARE SUPPLY IN CHILE Puentes Esteban, Centro de Microdatos, Universidad de Chile Co-Authors: David Bravo, Centro de Microdatos, Departamento de Economia, Universidad de Chile and Dante Contreras, Centro de Microdatos, Universidad de Chile
GENDER AND ETHNIC WAGE GAPS IN GUATEMALA FROM A MATCHING COMPARISONS PERSPECTIVE Alberto P Gonzales Castillo, Inter-American Development Bank Co-Author: Hugo Nopo, Inter-American Development Bank
13:15 - 14:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LAMES - Econometrics and Empirical Economics
13:15 - 14:45 MACRO/INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS Room 130 (LAMES EEE) Chairperson: Roberto Alvarez, Central Bank of Chile and Intelis, University of Chile
NOMINAL SHOCKS AND REAL EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS Luciana Juvenal, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
FISCAL SHOCKS AND REAL EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS: SOME EVIDENCE FOR LATIN AMERICA Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Brunel University
GROWING UP IN BAD TIMES: MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY AND THE FORMATION OF BELIEFS Paola Giuliano, UCLA Co-Author: Antonio Spilimbergo, IMF
DAVID VERSUS GOLIATH: THE IMPACT OF CHINESE COMPETITION ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Roberto Alvarez, Central Bank of Chile and Intelis, University of Chile
13:15 - 14:45 TRADE AND FIRMS (LAMES EEE) Room 132 Chairperson: Oskar Nupia, Universidad de los Andes
THE FLATTENING FIRM AND PRODUCT MARKET COMPETITION: THE EFFECT OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION Maria Guadalupe, Columbia University Co-Author: Julie Wulf, Harvard Business School
SERVICES FDI AND MANUFACTURING PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: EVIDENCE FOR CHILE Caroline Paunov, OECD Development Centre Co-Author: Ana Margarida Fernandes, The World Bank
HETEROGENEOUS FIRMS AND IMPORT QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM TRANSACTION-LEVEL PRICES Benjamin Mandel, University of California, Davis
TRUST AND TRADE Oskar Nupia, Universidad de los Andes
13:15 - 14:45 ECONOMETRIC THEORY II (LAMES EEE) Room 224 Chairperson: Ignacio Lobato, ITAM
57 FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF FRACTIONALLY COINTEGRATED SYSTEMS Katarzyna Lasak, CREATES, University of Aarhus
HOW MUCH DO WE LEARN FROM THE ESTIMATION OF DSGE MODELS? A CASE STUDY OF IDENTIFICATION ISSUES IN A NEW KEYNESIAN BUSINESS CYCLE MODEL Nikolay Iskrev, Bank of Portugal
SPATIAL DYNAMIC FACTOR MODEL Dani Gamerman, Instituto de Matemática - UFRJ Co-Authors: Hedibert Lopes, Graduate School of Business, Chicago and Esther Salazar, Instituto de Matemática - UFRJ
AN AUTOMATIC PORTMANTEAU TEST FOR SERIAL CORRELATION Ignacio Lobato, ITAM Co-Author: Juan Carlos Escanciano, Indiana University
13:15 - 14:45 ILLEGAL BEHAVIOR (LAMES EEE) Room 333 Chairperson: Ariaster Chimeli, Ohio University
A STATISTICAL EVALUATION OF FEMICIDE RATES IN MEXICAN CITIES ALONG THE US-MEXICO BORDER Pedro Albuquerque, University of Minnesota Duluth Co-Author: Prasad R. Vemala, Texas A&M International University
THE EFFECTS OF CHILD LABOR ON THE HEALTH OF BRAZILIAN ADULTS Nishijima Marislei, EACH-USP Co-Author: André Souza, FGV
AN ORDERED PROBIT MODEL FOR DRUGS DEMAND IN THE CITY OF SAO PAULO (2001) Fernanda Perini de Castro, Centro Universitario Padre Anchieta Co-Author: Alexandre Sartoris, Sao Paulo State University - UNESP
PROHIBITION AND THE SUPPLY OF BRAZILIAN MAHOGANY Ariaster Chimeli, Ohio University
13:15 - 14:45 FINANCE I (LAMES EEE) Room 345 Chairperson: Pedro Valls Pereira, EESP-FGV
FUTURES MARKETS, OIL PRICES AND THE INTERTEMPORAL APPROACH TO THE CURRENT ACCOUNT Elif Arbatli, Bank of Canada
TERM STRUCTURE FITTING, REGIME CHANGE AND THE EXPECTATION HYPOTHESES: A STUDY FOR BRAZIL Gyorgy Varga, FCE Consulting
ON THE STRUCTURE OF FINANCIAL CONTAGION: ECONOMETRIC TESTS AND MERCOSUR EVIDENCE Ariel Viale, Florida Atlantic University Co-Authors: David Bessler, Texas A & M University, James Kolari, Texas A & M University and Seppo Pynnönen, University of Vaasa
PREDICTABILITY OF EQUITY MODELS Pedro Valls Pereira, EESP-FGV
58 FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
13:15 - 14:45 PROGRAM EVALUATION II (LAMES EEE) Room 347 Chairperson: Mushfiq Mobarak, Yale University
DO DAYLIGHT-SAVING TIME ADJUSTMENTS IMPACT HUMAN PERFORMANCE? Doug Steigerwald, UC Santa Barbara Co-Author: Marc Conte, UC Santa Barbara
THE EFFECTS OF HEALTH-CONDITIONAL AND HEALTH- UNCONDITIONAL PROGRESA CASH TRANSFERS ON HEALTH Carlos Chiapa, El Colegio de México
INCOME EXPECTATIONS IN RURAL MEXICO Vincenzo Di Maro, University College London Co-Author: Orazio Attanasio, University College London and Institute for Fiscal Studies
DECENTRALIZATION AND WATER POLLUTION SPILLOVERS: EVIDENCE FROM THE RE-DRAWING OF COUNTY BOUNDARIES IN BRAZIL Mushfiq Mobarak, Yale University
13:15 - 14:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LAMES - Theoretical and Applied Economics
13:15 - 14:45 MECHANISM DESIGN I (LAMES TAE) Room 228 Chairperson: Piaser Gwenael, Université du Luxembourg
CHARACTERIZATION OF DOMINANT STRATEGY MECHANISMS IN RICH DOMAINS Juan Carlos Carbajal, School of Economics - The University of Queensland Co-Author: Rabee Tourky, School of Economics, University of Queensland
MULTIDIMENSIONAL INCENTIVE-COMPATIBILITY UNDER MULTIPLICATIVE SEPARABILITY Daniel Gottlieb, MIT Co-Authors: Aloisio Araujo, FGV/EPGE and IMPA and Humberto Moreira, FGV -- EPGE
ON THE PLANNERS' LOSS DUE TO INCOMPLETE INFORMATION IN BAYESIAN MECHANISM DESIGN Nicolas Figueroa, Universidad de Chile-CEA Co-Author: José Correa, Universidad de Chile-DII
DIRECT MECHANISMS, MENUS AND LATENT CONTRACTS Piaser Gwenael, Université du Luxembourg
59 FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
14:45 - 16:15 INVITED AND SPONSORED SESSIONS LACEA
14:45 - 16:15 WORLD BANK SPONSORED PANEL: Room Auditorium 2 WHITHER THE FINANCIAL LANDSCAPE AND REGULATORY ARCHITECTURE? LOOKING BEYOND THE CRISIS (LACEA) Chairperson: Guillermo Perry, Fedesarrollo
This Session is sponsored by the World Bank
PANELIST 1 Charles Calomiris, Columbia University
PANELIST 2 Michael Dooley, University of California, Santa Cruz
PANELIST 3 Sérgio R. C. Werlang , Banco Itaú and EPGE/FGV
PANELIST 4 Eduardo Levy Yeyati, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
14:45 - 16:15 FGV-IBRE SPONSORED SESSION: PRICE Room 228 MICRO DATA IN MACROECONOMICS (LACEA) Chairperson: Vagner Ardeo, IBRE-FGV Discussant: Carlos Viana de Carvalho, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
This Session is sponsored by FGV-IBRE
UNDERSTANDING MOVEMENTS IN AGGREGATE AND PRODUCT- LEVEL REAL-EXCHANGE RATES Nir Jaimovitch, Stanford University Co-Author: Ariel Burstein, University of California, Los Angeles
STATE-DEPENDENT OR TIME-DEPENDENT PRICING: DOES IT MATTER FOR RECENT U.S. INFLATION? Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Bank of Canada Co-Author: Pete Klenow, Stanford University
THE EVOLUTION OF PRICE SETTING IN A VARIABLE MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT: EVIDENCE FROM THE BRAZILIAN CPI Marco Bonomo, FGV/EPGE Co-Authors: Rebecca Barros, IBRE-FGV and Sílvia Matos, IBRE-FGV
14:45 - 16:15 WORLD BANK SPONSORED SESSION: Room 232 CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFERS: THEORY, EVIDENCE AND POLICY (LACEA) Chairperson: Francisco H. G. Ferreira, World Bank Discussant: Orazio Attanasio, University College London and Institute for Fiscal Studies
This Session is sponsored by the World Bank 60 FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
THE ECONOMIC RATIONALE FOR CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFERS Francisco H. G. Ferreira, World Bank
THE IMPACT OF CCTS ON HEALTH, EDUCATION AND LIVELIHOODS: A REVIEW OF THE EVIDENCE Norbert Schady, World Bank
SECOND GENERATION CCTS?: POLICY CHALLENGES IN THE DESIGN OF EFFECTIVE CONDITIONAL TRANSFERS Ariel Fiszbein, World Bank
14:45 - 16:15 IDB SPONSORED SESSION: SOVEREIGN Room 236 DEBT AND INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (LACEA) Chairperson: Luis Catao, Inter-American Development Bank
This Session is sponsored by IDB
OPTIMAL RESERVE MANAGEMENT AND SOVEREIGN DEBT Laura Alfaro, Harvard Business School Discussant(s): Luis Catao, Inter-American Development Bank Co-Author: Fabil Kanczuk, USP
THE PROBLEM THAT WASNT: COORDINATION FAILURES IN SOVEREIGN DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Marcos Chamon, International Monetary Fund Discussant(s): Eduardo Borensztein, International Monetary Fund Co-Author: Jeromin Zettlemeier, EBRD
INDEXED SOVEREIGN DEBT: AN APPLIED FRAMEWORK Guido Sandleris, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella Discussant(s): Ugo Panizza, Unctad Co-Authors: Horacio Sapriza, Rutgers Business School and Filippo Taddei, Collegio Carlo Alberto
14:45 - 16:15 LATIN AMERICA PRODUCTIVITY Room 333 DECLINE (LACEA) Chairperson: Pedro C. Ferreira, FGV-EPGE
THE EVOLUTION OF THE TFP IN LATIN AMERICA Pedro C. Ferreira, FGV-EPGE
THE LATIN AMERICAN DEVELOPMENT PROBLEM Diego Restuccia, University of Toronto
EAST ASIA VS. LATINA AMERICA: TFP ANS HUMAN CAPITAL POLICIES Rodolfo Manuelli, Winsconsin University
14:45 - 16:15 GROWTH & DEVELOPMENT (LACEA) Room 335 Chairperson: Francisco Buera, Northwestern/UCLA
FINANCE AND DEVELOPMENT: A TALE OF TWO SECTORS Yongs Shin, Wash. U. St. Louis and U. Wisconsin-Madison
GROWTH REGRESSIONS AT WORK Domenico Giannone, European Central Bank Co-Authors: Michele Lenza, European Central Bank and Elias Papaioannou, Dartmouth College
61 FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
LEARNING THE WEALTH OF NATIONS Francisco Buera, Northwestern/UCLA Co-Authors: Alexander Monge-Naranjo, Penn State University and Giorgio E. Primiceri, Northwestern University
14:45 - 16:15 IDB SPONSORED SESSION: Room 347 UNDERSTANDING QUALITY OF LIFE: A MULTIDIMENSIONAL APPROACH (LACEA) Chairperson: Carol Graham, Brookings Institution
This Session is sponsored by the IDB
THE CONFLICTIVE RELATION BETWEEN SATISFACTION AND INCOME Eduardo Lora, Chief Economist and General Manager, Research Department, IDB
VULNERABILITY AND QUALITY OF LIFE PERCEPTIONS Mauricio Cárdenas, Brookings Institute and LACEA
WORKING CONDITIONS AND QUALITY OF LIFE Naercio Menezes-Filho, FEA-USP and Ibmec/SP
INCOME, DEPRIVATION AND PERCEPTIONS Leonardo Gasparini, Universidad de La Plata
14:45 - 16:15 INVITED AND SPONSORED SESSIONS LAMES
14:45 - 16:15 IDENTIFICATION OF DISCRETE CHOICE Room Auditorium 1 DEMAND MODELS (LAMES) Chairperson: João Manoel De Mello, PUC- Rio
NONPARAMETRIC IDENTIFICATION OF MULTINOMIAL CHOICE DEMAND MODELS WITH HETEROGENEOUS CONSUMERS Steven Berry, Yale University Co-Author: Philip A. Haile, Yale University
IDENTIFICATION OF DISCRETE CHOICE DEMAND FROM MARKET LEVEL DATA Philip A. Haile, Yale University Co-Author: Steven Berry, Yale University
14:45 - 16:15 PRIVATE INFORMATION IN MARKETS Room Auditorium 3 AND CONTRACTS (LAMES) Chairperson: Vinicius Carrasco, Department of Economis, PUC-Rio
DECENTRALIZED TRADE WITH PRIVATE INFORMATION Mikhail Golosov, MIT Co-Authors: Guido Lorenzoni, MIT and Aleh Tsyvinski, Yale and NES
LEARNING IN DYNAMIC INCENTIVE CONTRACTS Yuliy Sannikov, University of California Berkeley Co-Author: Peter DeMarzo, Stanford University
62 FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
14:45 - 16:15 WOMEN, FERTILITY, AND DEVELOPMENT Room 224 (LAMES) Chairperson: Vladimir Ponczek, EESP - FGV/SP
WOMEN'S RIGHTS: FERTILITY AND THE TRADEOFF BETWEEN SELFISH HUSBANDS AND ALTRUISTIC FATHERS Raquel Fernandez, NYU
SON PREFERENCE, SEX SELECTION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: THE CASE OF SOUTH KOREA Lena Edlund, Columbia University
16:15 - 16:30 COFFEE BREAK
16:30 - 17:30 KEYNOTE LECTURE
16:30 - 17:30 KEYNOTE LECTURE - SPONSORED BY BNDES Room Auditorium 2 (LACEA-LAMES) Chairperson: Pedro Valls Pereira, EESP-FGV
THE HUMAN SIDE OF MECHANISM DESIGN Daniel McFadden, University of California, Berkeley
17:30 - 18:30 INVITED LECTURES LACEA
17:30 - 18:30 RAUL PREBISH LECTURE (LACEA) Room Auditorium 1 Chairperson: Walter Novaes, PUC-Rio
REFERENCE-DEPENDENT PREFERENCES: NEWS, UTILITY, AND CHOICE Matthew Rabin, University of California Berkeley
17:30 - 18:30 INVITED LECTURES LAMES
17:30 - 18:30 MIGUEL SIDRAUSKI LECTURE (LAMES) Room Auditorium 3 Chairperson: Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, EPGE/FGV
STEPPING ON A RAKE: THE ROLE OF FISCAL POLICY IN THE INFLATION OF THE 1970'S Christopher A. Sims, Princeton University
18:30 - 19:30 LACEA PLENARY SESSION
18:30 - 19:30 IDB SPONSORED PLENARY SESSION: SAILING IN Room Auditorium 1 TURBULENT WATERS: WHAT COMES NEXT FOR LATIN AMERICA? (LACEA) Chairperson: Alejandro Izquierdo, Inter-American Development Bank
This Session is sponsored by the IDB
63 FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2008
PANELIST 1 Ernesto Talvi, Executive Director, CERES
PANELIST 2 Guillermo Calvo, Professor of Economics, International & Public Affairs - Columbia University
PANELIST 3 Ricardo Hausmann, Director of the Center for International Development, Harvard University
PANELIST 4 Armínio Fraga, Gávea Investimentos
18:30 - 19:30 LAMES PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS
18:30 - 19:30 PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS (LAMES) Room Auditorium 2 Chairperson: Pablo Neumeyer, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
STATE CAPACITY, CONFLICT AND DEVELOPMENT Torsten Persson, Institute for International Economic Studies Co-Author(s): Timothy Besley, London School of Economics
20:30 CONFERENCE PARTY
64 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
DAY OVERVIEW
08:45 - 10:30 Sponsored and Contributed Sessions 10:30 - 10:45 Coffee Break 10:45 - 12:15 Invited and Sponsored Lectures 12:15 - 13:00 Lunch 13:00 - 14:30 Invited Lectures and Sessions 14:30 - 16:00 Sponsored and Contributed Sessions 16:00 - 16:15 Coffee Break 16:15 - 17:15 Invited Lectures 17:15 - 18:45 Sponsored and Contributed Sessions 18:45 - 19:45 Keynote Lecture
08:45 - 10:30 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LACEA
08:45 - 10:30 THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC Room Auditorium 1 POLICIES ON POVERTY AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION (LACEA) Chairperson: TBA
THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC POLICIES ON POVERTY AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION -- MACRO-MICRO EVALUATION TECHNIQUES AND TOOLS François Bourguignon, Paris School of Economics, Maurizio Bussolo, World Bank and Luiz Pereira da Silva, World Bank
08:45 - 10:30 IDB SPONSORED SESSION: TRANSPORT Room Auditorium 2 COSTS AND TRADE (LACEA) Chairperson: TBA
This Session is sponsored by the IDB
PANELIST 1 Juan Blyde, Inter-American Development Bank
PANELIST 2 Mauricio Mesquita Moreira, Inter-American Development Bank
PANELIST 3 Danielken Molina, Student, University of California San Diego
08:45 - 10:30 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS III (LACEA) Room Auditorium 3 Chairperson: Pablo Acosta, World Bank
THE IMPACT OF U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ON HOUSEHOLD REMITTANCES TO LATIN AMERICA: A STATE-LEVEL ANALYSIS Kristin Magnusson, Stockholm School of Economics
65 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
THE IMPACT OF REMITTANCE ON THE HOUSING MARKET IN LATIN AMERICA Maria Teresa Punzi, Bank of Spain
TRADE POLICY AND EFFICIENCY IN AN EMPIRICAL RICARDIAN MODEL WITH MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION Carlos A. Cinquetti, São Paulo State University
REMITTANCES, EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES, AND THE DUTCH DISEASE: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS Pablo Acosta, World Bank Co-Authors: Emmanuel Lartey, Department of Economics, California State University - Fullerton and Federico Mandelman, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
08:45 - 10:30 POVERTY AND INEQUALITY I (LACEA) Room 206 Chairperson: Gladys Lopez-Acevedo, World Bank
TEENAGE CHILDBEARING: EFFECTS ON THE CHILD Carlos Sepulveda, DANE - Colombia
CASH TRANSFERS, BEHAVIORAL CHANGES, AND COGNITIVE DEVELOPMENT IN EARLY CHILDHOOD: EVIDENCE FROM A RANDOMIZED EXPERIMENT Karen Macours, Johns Hopkins University Co-Authors: Norbert Schady, World Bank and Renos Vakis, World Bank
WORKING WITH MY PARENTS: THE EFFECT OF ADULT LABOR MARKET ON CHILD LABOR IN COLOMBIA Lucas Higuera, Inter American Development Bank
POOR AREAS OR POOR PEOPLE? THE CASE OF ECUADOR Gladys Lopez-Acevedo, World Bank Co-Author: Monica Tinajero, UNAM
08:45 - 10:30 FAMILY AND EDUCATION: CHILD Room 232 DEVELOPMENT (LACEA) Chairperson: Vitor Pereira, Human Development Network - The World Bank
EXPECTATIONS, CHILD LABOR AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Patrick Emerson, Oregon State University Co-Author: Shawn Knabb, Western Washington University
DOES CHILD LABOR ALWAYS DECREASE WITH INCOME? AN EVALUATION IN THE CONTEXT OF A DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM IN NICARAGUA Ximena Del Carpio, The World Bank
EARLY CHILD TEST SCORE GAPS AND NON-COGNITIVE SKILLS ACROSS COUNTRIES: SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES Emma Tominey, London School of Economics Co-Authors: Jo Blanden, University of Surrey and Centre for Economic Performance, LSE and Stephen Machin, University College London and CEP, LSE
DOES MARRIAGE PROTECT INVESTMENTS IN CHILDREN? THE EFFECTS OF THE ALIMONY RIGHTS OVER FERTILITY IN BRAZILIAN NORTHEASTERN REGION Vitor Pereira, Human Development Network - The World Bank Co-Author: Juliano Assunção, Departamento de Economia PUC-Rio
66 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
08:45 - 10:30 GOVERNMENT AND ECONOMIC Room 236 DEVELOPMENT (LACEA) Chairperson: Claudio Raddatz, World Bank
FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN BOLIVIA Jose Pineda, Corporacion Andina de Fomento Co-Author: Rodolfo Mendez, Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollos Cuantitativos BBVA
GROWTH AND GOVERNANCE: A NONPARAMETRIC ANALYSIS David Tomás Jacho-Chávez, Indiana University Co-Author: Kim Huynh, Indiana University
DISPATCHERS Fredriksson Anders, Institute for International Economic Studies (IIES) - Stockholm University
PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A BLESSING OR A CURSE? Christian Daude, OECD Development Centre Co-Author: Eduardo Cavallo, Inter-American Development Bank
08:45 - 10:30 MIGRATION (LACEA) Room 335 Chairperson: Silvia Helena Barcellos, Princeton University
CLIMATE MIGRATION Flávia Chein, CEDEPLAR/FACE/UFMG Co-Author: Juliano Assunção, Departamento de Economia PUC-Rio
THE BALASSA-SAMUELSON HYPOTHESIS AND ELDERLY MIGRATION Oscar Avila, Universidad del Rosario Co-Authors: Mauricio Rodriguez, Universidad del Rosario and Hernando Zuleta, Brown University
THE DYNAMICS OF IMMIGRATION AND WAGES Silvia Helena Barcellos, Princeton University
08:45 - 10:30 INFRA-STRUCTURE AND RESOURCES Room 349 (LACEA) Chairperson: Jacoby Hanan, World Bank
OPTIMAL RESOURCE EXTRACTION CONTRACTS UNDER THREAT OF EXPROPRIATION Ronald Fischer, CEA-DII, Universidad de Chile Co-Author: Eduardo Engel, Department of Economics, Yale University
CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND THE PRODUCT MARKET: THE CASE OF EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY MARKETS Anna Toldra Simats, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University Co-Author: Jerome Reboul, Industry
PUBLIC- PRIVATE COOPERATION FOR THE PROVISION OF PIPED GAS IN POOR NEIGHBORHOODS OF BUENOS AIRES: INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK AND IMPACTS Pablo Sanguinetti, CAF/UTDT Co-Authors: Cynthia Goytia, Universidad Torcuatro Di Tella and Ricardo Aníbal Pasquini, Center for Financial Stability of Argentina
ON MEASURING THE BENEFITS OF LOWER TRANSPORT COSTS Jacoby Hanan, World Bank
67 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
08:45 - 10:30 POLITICAL ECONOMY II (LACEA) Room 401 Chairperson: Sandra Sequeira, Harvard University
WHO IS PUNISHING CORRUPT POLITICIANS - VOTERS OR THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT? EVIDENCE FROM THE BRAZILIAN ANTI-CORRUPTION PROGRAM Fernanda Brollo, Bocconi University
GEOGRAPHICAL ALLOCATION OF BUDGET ADJUSTMENTS UNDER A DISCRETIONARY EXECUTIVE Cecilia Rumi, Universidad Nacional de La Plata Co-Author: Walter Cont, Universidad Nacional de la Plata and FIEL (Fundación de Investigaciones Económicas Latinoamericanas)
CORRUPTION AND UNOFFICIAL ECONOMY: COMPLEMENTS OR SUBSTITUTES? Fabio Klein, EAESP/FGV
THE LONG WAY AROUND: THE REAL CONSEQUENCES OF CORRUPTION IN PORTS Sandra Sequeira, Harvard University Co-Authors: Simeon Djankov, International Finance Corporation and Sendhil Mullainathan, Harvard University
08:45 - 10:30 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LAMES - Econometrics and Empirical Economics
08:45 - 10:30 ECONOMETRIC THEORY III (LAMES EEE) Room 130 Chairperson: Octavio Tourinho, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro
SEMI-EMPIRICAL LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF MANUFACTURING INTERACTION-BASED MODEL WITH ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION Acosta Pena Brasil, El Colegio de Mexico
AN OPTIMIZATION-BASED MATCHING PROCEDURE Rodrigo Krell, Universidad de Chile Co-Authors: Tomás Rau, Universidad de Chile and Jorge Rivera, University of Chile
TIME SCALE REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF THE WAGE PHILLIPS CURVE IN THE US Marco Gallegati, Università Politecnica delle Marche Co-Authors: Mauro Gallegati, Department of Economics - Università Politencica delle Marche, James Ramsey, Department of Economics - New York University and Willi Semmler, Department of Economics New School University and CEM University of Bielefeld, Germany
COMBINED MINIMUM RELATIVE ENTROPY AND MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF DYNAMIC ECONOMIC MODELS Octavio Tourinho, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro
68 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
08:45 - 10:30 APPLIED ECONOMIC THEORY (LAMES Room 333 EEE) Chairperson: Hector J. Villarreal, EGAP ITESM / CEFP
BANKRUPTCY LAW AND CREDIT MARKET: A GENERAL- EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH Bruno Funchal, FUCAPE Business School Co-Author: Aloisio Araujo, FGV/EPGE and IMPA
HOUSEHOLD LABOR SUPPLY AND HOME SERVICES IN A GENERAL-EQUILIBRIUM MODEL WITH HETEROGENEOUS AGENTS Christian Bredemeier, TU Dortmund University Co-Author: Falko Juessen, TU Dortmund University
SENTIMENT PATTERNS IN THE HETEROGENEOUS AGENT MODEL Lukas Vacha, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic Co-Author: Jozef Barunik, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
HETEROGENEOUS AGENTS REPRESENTED BY HIGHER RANK ENGEL CURVES: THE CASE OF QUALITY IN CONSUMPTION Hector J. Villarreal, EGAP ITESM / CEFP Co-Authors: Ricardo Cantu, EGAP ITESM and Chavez Juan Carlos, CEFP
08:45 - 10:30 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LAMES - Theoretical and Applied Economics
08:45 - 10:30 COLLECTIVE DECISION-MAKING (LAMES Room 132 TAE) Chairperson: Nizar Allouch, Queen Mary, University of London
MINIMUM COST SPANNING TREE PROBLEMS WITH GROUPS Gustavo Bergantiños, Universidade de Vigo Co-Author: Maria Gomez-Rua, Universidade de Vigo
GROUPSTRATEGYPROOF COST SHARING Ruben Juarez, University of Hawaii
STABLE SETS IN THREE AGENT PILLAGE GAMES Colin Rowat, University of Birmingham Co-Author: Manfred Kerber, School of Computer Science, University of Birmingham
A COMPETITIVE EQUILIBRIUM FOR A WARM GLOW ECONOMY Nizar Allouch, Queen Mary, University of London
08:45 - 10:30 MECHANISM DESIGN II (LAMES TAE) Room 224 Chairperson: Vinicius Carrasco, Department of Economis, PUC-Rio
LEARNING-BY-EMPLOYING: THE VALUE OF COMMITMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY Braz Camargo, University of Western Ontario Co-Author: Elena Pastorino, University of Iowa
69 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
IMPLICIT INCENTIVES AND REAL DECISION-MAKING AUTHORITY Felipe Balmaceda, U de Chile- CEA
DIVIDING AND DISCARDING: A PROCEDURE FOR TAKING DECISIONS WITH NON-TRANSFERABLE UTILITY Vinicius Carrasco, Department of Economis, PUC-Rio
08:45 - 10:30 BANKING AND FINANCE (LAMES TAE) Room 228 Chairperson: Rafael Repullo, CEMFI
ENDOGENIZING THE SCOPE OF THE STIGMA OF FAILURE Heiner Schumacher, University of Mannheim Co-Authors: Kerstin Gerling, University of Mannheim and Michal Kowalik, University of Mannheim
FRAGILITY OF REPUTATION AND CLUSTERING IN RISK TAKING Guillermo Ordonez, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
LIQUIDITY PROVISION AND BANKING CRISES WITH HETEROGENEOUS AGENTS Matias Fontenla, University of New Mexico
DOES COMPETITION REDUCE THE RISK OF BANK FAILURE? Rafael Repullo, CEMFI Co-Author: David Martinez-Miera, CEMFI
08:45 - 10:30 POLITICAL ECONOMICS AND Room 329 SOCIOLOGY (LAMES TAE) Chairperson: Shlomo Weber, Southern Methodist University
ON SOCIAL AND MARKET SANCTIONS IN DETERRING ILLEGAL BEHAVIOR Philippe Bontems, Toulouse School of Economics Co-Author: Gilles Rotillon, University of Paris 10, Nanterre
AN AXIOMATIC APPROACH TO THE MEASUREMENT OF CORRUPTION: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS Andrew Horowitz, Walton College of Business, University of Arkansas Co-Authors: James Foster, Vanderbilt University and Fabio Mendez, Sam M. Walton College of Business, University of Arkansas
STRATEGY-PROOF CONTRACTUAL FEDERALISM Antoine Loeper, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University
STABILITY OF NATIONS AND GENETIC DIVERSITY Shlomo Weber, Southern Methodist University Co-Authors: KLaus Desmet, Universitity Carlos III Madrid, Michel Le Breton, University of Toulouse and Ignacio Ortuno-Ortin, University Carlos III Madrid
08:45 - 10:30 INTERNATIONAL FINANCE I (LAMES TAE) Room 331 Chairperson: Ali Dib, Bank of Canada
A TWO-SECTOR SMALL OPEN ECONOMY MODEL WITH MONOPOLISTICALLY COMPETITIVE NON TRADED MARKETS Romain Restout, University of Paris 10 and ENS-LSH
70 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE MASS OF SPECULATORS AND THE DECISION TO ABANDON A CURRENCY PEG Adriana Ponta, Universidade Nova de Lisboa/ Universidade Federal Fluminense
DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT Stefan Franz Schubert, Free University of Bozen-Bolzano
GLOBALIZATION AND OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY IN A MULTI- SECTOR SMALL OPEN ECONOMY MODEL Ali Dib, Bank of Canada Co-Author: Kichian Maral, Bank of Canada and Carlos Resende, Bank of Canada
08:45 - 10:30 INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION I (LAMES Room 345 TAE) Chairperson: Trond Olsen, Norwegian School of Economics and BA
SEARCH ENGINES: LEFT SIDE QUALITY VERSUS RIGHT SIDE PROFITS Alexander White, Toulouse School of Economics
CONSUMER RATIONING AND THE COURNOT OUTCOME Jason Lepore, California Polytechnic State University
REPRESENTATIONS AND IDENTITIES FOR HOMOGENEOUS TECHNOLOGIES Hernan Vallejo, Associate Professor Co-Authors: Pietro Bonaldi, Research Assistant and Miguel Espinosa, Research Assistant
COOPERATION IN KNOWLEDGE-INTENSIVE FIRMS Trond Olsen, Norwegian School of Economics and BA Co-Author: Ola Kvaloy, University of Stavanger
08:45 - 10:30 OPTIMAL TAXATION (LAMES TAE) Room 347 Chairperson: Adrian Peralta-Alva, Research Division,Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis
OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY AND INTEREST INCOME TAXATION Eurilton Araújo, Ibmec São Paulo
OPTIMAL TAXATION, SOCIAL CONTRACT AND THE FOUR WORLDS OF WELFARE CAPITALISM Amedeo Spadaro, Paris School of Economics
OPTIMAL CAPITAL INCOME TAXATION, INVESTMENT SUBSIDIES AND REDISTRIBUTION IN A NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH MODEL Guenther Rehme, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin
OPTIMAL TAXATION IN A MONETARY SEARCH MODEL WITH INFORMAL MARKETS Adrian Peralta-Alva, Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis Co-Author: Pere Gomis-Porqueras, University of MIami
10:30 - 10:45 COFFEE BREAK
71 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
10:45 - 12:15 INVITED AND SPONSORED SESSIONS LACEA
10:45 - 12:15 IDB SPONSORED SESSION: QUALITY OF Room Auditorium 2 LIFE IN URBAN NEIGHBORHOODS (LACEA) Chairperson: Pablo Sanguinetti, CAF/UTDT Discussant: Bernard Van Praag, Amsterdam University
This Session is sponsored by the IDB
PANELIST 1 Lorena Alcazar, GRADE, Peru
PANELIST 2 Guillermo Cruces, Universidad de la Plata, Argentina
PANELIST 3 Werner Hernani-Limarino, Fundacion ARU
PANELIST 4 Carlos Medina, Banco de la República de Colombia
PANELIST 5 Juan Robalino, CATIE, Costa Rica
10:45 - 12:15 FINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION: CAPITAL Room 224 FLOWS, FOREIGN FIRMS AND GROWTH (LACEA) Chairperson: Delfim Gomes Neto, Universidade de Vigo
WHERE DID CAPITAL FLOW? FIFTY YEARS OF INTERNATIONAL RATE OF RETURN DIFFERENTIALS AND CAPITAL FLOWS Mark Wright, University of California, Los Angeles Co-Author: Lee Ohanian, University of California, Los Angeles
FOREIGN FIRMS, DOMESTIC ENTERPRENEURIAL SKILLS AND DEVELOPMENT Alexander Monge-Naranjo, Penn State University
FINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION, CONVERGENCE AND GROWTH Delfim Gomes Neto, Universidade de Vigo Co-Author: Francisco José Veiga, Universidade do Minho
10:45 - 12:15 IDB SPONSORED SESSION: THE IMPACT Room 228 OF IMMIGRATION AND REMITTANCES IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (LACEA) Chairperson: Pablo Acosta, World Bank
This Session is Co-sponsored by the IDB and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
REMITTANCES AND BANKING SERVICES: EVIDENCE FROM MEXICO J. Ernesto Lopez Cordova, Inter-American Development Bank
72 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
LABOR MIGRATION AS PRICE ARBITRAGE: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM MEXICAN WORKERS IN THE US Hyejin Ku, Florida State University
IMMIGRATION AND THE MACROECONOMY Federico Mandelman, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
10:45 - 12:15 LACEA/NIP PANEL: WHY IS INEQUALITY Room 232 FALLING IN LATIN AMERICA? (LACEA) Chairperson: Nora Lustig, George Washington University
A DISTRIBUTION IN MOTION: THE CASE OF ARGENTINA. A REVIEW OF EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE Leonardo Gasparini, Universidad de La Plata Co-Author: Guillermo Cruces, Universidad de la Plata, Argentina
MARKETS, THE STATE AND THE DYNAMICS OF INEQUALITY. BRAZIL´S CASE STUDY Ricardo Paes de Barros, Instituto de Pesquisa Economica Aplicada (IPEA) Co-Authors: Mirela de Carvalho, Instituto de Pesquisa Economica Aplicada (IPEA), Samuel Franco, Instituto de Pesquisa Economica Aplicada (IPEA) and Rosane Mendonça, Instituto de Pesquisa Economica Aplicada (IPEA)
THE DYNAMICS OF INCOME INEQUALITY IN MEXICO SINCE NAFTA Gerardo Esquivel, El Colegio de Mexico
REDISTRIBUTIVE CONSTRAINTS UNDER HIGH INEQUALITY: THE CASE OF MEXICO John Scott, CIDE - Mexico
INEQUALITY IN POST-STRUCTURAL REFORM IN PERU: THE ROLE OF MARKETS AND POLICY FORCES Jaime Saavedra, World Bank Co-Author: Miguel Jaramillo, Grupo de Análisis para el Desarrollo
DEACREASING WAGE INEQUALITY IN CHILE Eduardo Engel, Department of Economics, Yale University Co-Author: Juan Eberhard, Yale University
10:45 - 12:15 LACEA PANEL: DEVELOPING Room 236 COUNTRIES AND THE WAR ON DRUGS (LACEA) Chairperson: Norman Loayza, The World Bank
WHAT DO ECONOMISTS KNOW ABOUT CRIME? Angela Dills, Mercer University
ILLEGAL DRUG TRAFFICKING, ORGANIZED CRIME, AND VIOLENCE IN BRAZIL Alba Zaluar, UERJ
THE DEVELOPMENT IMPACT OF THE PROHIBITION OF THE DRUG TRADE Norman Loayza, The World Bank Co-Authors: Philip Keefer, World Bank and Rodrigo Soares, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro
73 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
10:45 - 12:15 EMERGING MARKETS (LACEA) Room 329 Chairperson: Graciela Kaminsky, George Washington University
PERSISTENT GAPS AND DEFAULT TRAPS Ana Fostel, George Washington University Co-Authors: Luis Catao, Inter-American Development Bank and Sandeep Kapur, Birkbeck College, University of London
PROPERTY RIGHTS, FINANCE, AND DEVELOPMENT: HISTORICAL EVIDENCE WITHIN THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, University of Houston
PATTERNS OF INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL RAISINGS Sergio Schmukler, World Bank Co-Authors: Juan Carlos Gozzi, Brown University and Ross Levine, NBER
A TALE OF THREE COUNTRIES: ARGENTINA, AUSTRALIA AND CANADA FROM INDEPENDENCE TO THE WWII Graciela Kaminsky, George Washington University Co-Author: Pablo Vega-Garcia, George Washington University
10:45 - 12:15 MACROECONOMICS III (LACEA) Room 331 Chairperson: Carlos Viana de Carvalho, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
THE DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL EFFECTS OF INTERSTATE U.S. BANKING Fabio Ghironi, Boston College Co-Author: Viktors Stebunovs, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
SALES AND MONETARY POLICY Bernardo Guimarães, London School of Economics Co-Author: Kevin Sheedy, London School of Economics
ESTIMATING THE CROSS-SECTIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRICE STICKINESS FROM AGGREGATE DATA Carlos Viana de Carvalho, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Co-Author: Niels Dam, Danmarks Nationalbank
10:45 - 12:15 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (LACEA) Room 333 Chairperson: Francisco Buera, Northwestern/UCLA
THE DEMARCATION OF LAND: PATTERNS AND ECONOMIC EFFECTS Dean Lueck, Universiy of Arizona Co-Author: Gary Libecap, University of California, Santa Barbara
THE BATTLES AGAINST ANIMAL DISEASES: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND THE ORIGINS OF ECONOMIC REGULATION IN THE UNITED STATES Alan Olmstead, UC Davis Co-Author: Paul W. Rhode, University of Arizona
10:45 - 12:15 CONSUDE SPONSORED SESSION: Room 335 REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN LATIN AMERICA: AGENDA AND POLICY ISSUES (LACEA) Chairperson: Carlos Winograd, Paris School of Economics and University of Paris-Evry 74 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
CONVERGENCE AND INTEGRATION IN LATIN AMERICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS Martin Grandes, Center for Financial Stability and The American University of Paris
ASSESSING CURRENCY AREAS SUITABILITY IN LATIN AMERICA: A MULTICRITERIA APPROACH Edgardo Torija Zane, Natixis Co-Author: Carlos Quenan, Université Paris III - Sorbonne
DOES LATIN AMERICAN INTEGRATION PROTECT AGAINST FOREIGN SHOCKS? ELEMENTS FOR A POLICY BALANCE Alain Sand, Ecole Normale Superieure de Lyon Co-Author: Jean Pierre Allegret, Université de Lyon II
INEFFECTIVE CONTROLS ON CAPITAL INFLOWS UNDER SOPHISTICATED FINANCIAL MARKETS: BRAZIL IN THE NINETIES Márcio G. P. Garcia, PUC-Rio Co-Author: Bernardo S. de M. Carvalho, Gávea Investimentos
10:45 - 12:15 IDB SPONSORED SESSION: THE Room 347 POLITICAL ECONOMY OF DEVELOPMENT (LACEA) Chairperson: Carlos Scartascini, Inter- American Development Bank
This Session is sponsored by the IDB
WHY DID LATIN AMERICA EXTEND THE FRANCHISE? A POLITICAL PARTY COMPETITION INTERPRETATION Cesar M. Rodriguez, Inter-American Development Bank
IS GOOD NEWS “ALWAYS” GOOD? ON THE DISTRIBUTIVE EFFECTS OF TERMS OF TRADE SHOCKS Sebastian Galiani, Washington University in St Louis
THE MAKING OF POLICY: FORMAL OR INFORMAL ARENAS? Carlos Scartascini, Inter-American Development Bank and Mariano Tommasi, Professor of Economics, Universidad de San Andres and Director of the Center of Studies for Institutional Development
10:45 - 12:15 INVITED AND SPONSORED SESSIONS LAMES
10:45 - 12:15 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS (LAMES) Room Auditorium 1 Chairperson: Cristina Terra, Fundação Getulio Vargas
THE ROLE OF SETTLEMENT PROCEDURES IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS Giovanni Maggi, Yale University Co-Author: Robert W. Staiger, Stanford University and NBER
THE GAINS FROM OPENNESS: TRADE, MULTINATIONAL PRODUCTION, AND DIFFUSION Andrés Rodriguez-Clare, Pennsylvania State University Co-Author: Natalia Ramondo, University of Texas-Austin
75 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
10:45 - 12:15 SIMONSEN LECTURE (LAMES) Room Auditorium 3 Chairperson: TBA
EDUCATION AND WAGES IN BRAZIL Naercio Menezes-Filho, FEA-USP and Ibmec/SP
THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND THE SEXUAL DIVISION OF LABOR Rodrigo Soares, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro
12:15 - 13:00 LUNCH
13:00 - 14:30 INVITED LECTURES AND SESSIONS LACEA
13:00 - 14:30 MACROECONOMICS IV (LACEA) Room Auditorium 2 Chairperson: Ricardo Cavalcanti, EPGE/FGV
LIQUIDITY, BUSINESS CYCLES, AND MONETARY POLICY Nobu Kiyotaki, Princeton University Co-Author: John Moore, Edinburgh University and London School of Economics
THE SIMPLE ANALYTICS OF ALLOCATION MARKETS WITH NON- TRANSFERABLE UTILITY John Leahy, NYU
13:00 - 14:30 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS (LACEA) Room Auditorium 3 Chairperson: Emanuel Ornelas, London School of Economics
TRADE AND CAPITAL FLOWS: A FINANCIAL FRICTIONS PERSPECTIVE Pol Antràs, Harvard University Co-Author: Ricardo J. Caballero, MIT
TBA Thierry Verdier, Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques
13:00 - 14:30 INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION (LACEA) Room 228 Chairperson: Rodrigo Moita, Ibmec Sao Paulo
PRICE AND BRAND COMPETITION BETWEEN DIFFERENTIATED RETAILERS: A STRUCTURAL ECONOMETRIC MODEL Pierre Dubois, Toulouse School of Economics Co-Author: Sandra Jodar-Rosell, Toulouse School of Economics
BEYOND PLAIN VANILLA: MODELING JOINT PRODUCT ASSORTMENT AND PRICING DECISIONS Michael Mazzeo, Northwestern University Co-Authors: Michaela Draganska, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University and Katja Seim, Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania
76 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
13:00 - 14:30 INVITED LECTURES AND SESSIONS LAMES
13:00 - 14:30 DECISION THEORY (LAMES) Room Auditorium 1 Chairperson: José Faro, IMPA
RISK, AMBIGUITY, AND THE RANK-DEPENDENCE AXIOMS Mark Machina, University of California, San Diego
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE RATIONALITY IN A MULTIPLE PRIOR MODEL Massimo Marinacci, Collegio Carlo Alberto Co-Authors: Itzhak Gilboa, Tel-Aviv University, HEC, Paris, and Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Fabio Maccheroni, Department of Decision Sciences, Universita Bocconi and David Schmeidler, Tel-Aviv University and The Ohio State University
13:00 - 14:30 NONPARAMETRIC IDENTIFICATION AND Room 224 ESTIMATION WITH APPLICATIONS TO INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION AND THE MEASUREMENT OF PEER EFFECTS (LAMES) Chairperson: Marcelo Portugal, UFRGS (Brazil)
MEASURING THE AVERAGE OUTCOME AND INEQUALITY EFFECTS OF SEGREGATION IN THE PRESENCE OF SOCIAL SPILLOVERS Geert Ridder, USC Co-Authors: Bryan S. Graham, University of California, Berkeley and Guido W. Imbens, Harvard University
NONPARAMETRIC IDENTIFICATION OF RISK AVERSION IN FIRST- PRICE AUCTIONS UNDER EXCLUSION RESTRICTIONS Quang Vuong, Pennsylvania State University Co-Authors: Emmanuel Guerre, Queen Mary University of London and Isabelle Perrigne, Pennsylvania State University
13:00 - 14:30 INFRASTRUCTURE (LAMES) Room 232 Chairperson: Mario Veiga, PSR Consultoria
THE BASIC PUBLIC FINANCE OF PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS Eduardo Engel, Department of Economics, Yale University Co-Authors: Ronald Fischer, CEA-DII, Universidad de Chile and Alexander Galetovic, U. de los Andes
AUCTION DESIGN FOR CAPACITY MARKETS David Salant, Columbia University Co-Author: Robert Stoddard, CRA International
13:00 - 14:30 UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT CRISIS: Room 236 POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS (LAMES) Chairperson: TBA
PANELIST 1 John Geanakoplos, Yale University
PANELIST 2 TBA
77 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
14:30 - 16:00 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LACEA
14:30 - 16:00 IDB AND WORLD BANK SPONSORED Room Auditorium 1 SESSION: PRIVATE PENSION FUNDS UNDER ATTACK: MACRO AND POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS (LACEA) Chairperson: Santiago Levy, Vice President of Sectors and Knowledge, IDB, and former General Director at the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS)
This Session is co-sponsored by IDB and the World Bank
PANELIST 1 Miguel Kiguel, Executive Director of EconViews and former Undersecretary of Finance and Chief Advisor to the Minister of Economy in Argentina
PANELIST 2 Augusto de la Torre, Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean, World Bank
PANELIST 3 Mauricio Cárdenas, Brookings Institute and LACEA
PANELIST 4 Carmen Pages, Inter-American Development Bank
14:30 - 16:00 IDB SPONSORED PANEL: BRAZIL & THE Room Auditorium 2 GLOBAL FINANCIAL OUTLOOK (LACEA) Chairperson: Luis Catao, Inter-American Development Bank
This Session is sponsored by the IDB
PANELIST 1 Octaviano Canuto, Vice-President, Inter-American Development Bank
PANELIST 2 Márcio G. P. Garcia, PUC-Rio
PANELIST 3 Ilan Goldfajn, Founding Partner, Ciano Investments, and Professor, PUC-RJ
PANELIST 4 Joaquim Levy, Treasury Secretary of Rio de Janeiro
PANELIST 5 Alberto Musalem, Vice-President, Tudor Investments
PANELIST 6 Alberto Ramos, Vice-President, Goldman Sachs
PANELIST 7 Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araujo, Head of Research - Central Bank of Brazil
78 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
14:30 - 16:00 IDB SPONSORED SESSION: DISASTER Room Auditorium 3 RISK MANAGEMENT IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (LACEA) Chairperson: Eduardo Borensztein, International Monetary Fund
This Session is sponsored by the IDB
DEVELOPING A RESEARCH AGENDA ON DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT Eduardo Cavallo, Inter-American Development Bank
THE FINANCIAL ASPECTS OF DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT Victor Cardenas, Ministry of Finance, Mexico
DISASTER RISK AND POVERTY: EVIDENCE FROM SIX LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES Luis Felipe López-Calva, Regional Bureau of Latin America and the Caribbean, UNDP Co-Author: Eduardo Ortiz, UNDP
14:30 - 16:00 INTERNATIONAL TRADE II (LACEA) Room 206 Chairperson: Leonardo Iacovone, University of Sussex and World Bank
ARE FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS CONTAGIOUS? Dany Jaimovich, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva Co-Author: Richard Baldwin, Graduate Institute, Geneva
MULTINATIONALS, TECHNOLOGICAL INCOMPATIBILITIES, AND SPILLOVERS Juan Carluccio, Paris School of Economics Co-Author: Fally Thibault, PSE
SEQUENTIAL EXPORTING Gregory Corcos, NHH (Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) Co-Authors: Facundo Albornoz, University of Birmingham, Hector F Calvo Pardo, University of Southampton and Emanuel Ornelas, London School of Economics
SHIPPING GOOD TEQUILA OUT: INVESTMENT, DOMESTIC UNIT VALUES AND ENTRY OF MULTI-PRODUCT PLANTS INTO EXPORT MARKETS Leonardo Iacovone, University of Sussex and World Bank Co-Author: Beata Smarzynska Javorcik, University of Oxford and CEPR
14:30 - 16:00 APPLIED MONETARY ECONOMICS Room 232 (LACEA) Chairperson: Mauricio Calani, Central Bank of Chile
FORECASTING THE CHILEAN INFLATION IN DIFFICULT TIMES Juan Díaz, Central Bank of Chile Co-Author: Gustavo Leyva, Central Bank of Chile. Research Department
MONETARY POLICY DESIGN UNDER IMPERFECT KNOWLEDGE: AN OPEN ECONOMY ANALYSIS Yu-chin Chen, University of Washington Co-Author: Pisut Kulthanavit,
79 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
MARKET FORECASTS IN BRAZIL: PERFORMANCE AND DETERMINANTS Fabia Carvalho, Central Bank of Brazil Co-Author: André Minella, Banco Central do Brasil
A SYSTEMIC APPROACH TO MONEY DEMAND MODELING Mauricio Calani, Central Bank of Chile Co-Authors: Fuentes J Rodrigo , Central Bank of Chile and Schmidt Hebbel Klaus, Central Bank of Chile
14:30 - 16:00 MACROECONOMICS: FINANCIAL Room 236 OPENNESS (LACEA) Chairperson: Gianluca Benigno, London School of Economics
PRODUCTIVITY GAINS FROM CAPITAL-MARKET LIBERALIZATION IN CHINA Claro Sebastian, Central Bank of Chile and PUC Chile
DOES FINANCIAL OPENNESS LEAD TO DEEPER DOMESTIC FINANCIAL MARKETS? Cesar Calderon, The World Bank Co-Author: Megumi Kubota, University of York
INTEGRATION WITH HETEROGENEOUS HOME FINANCIAL MARKET ACCESS Juliana Araujo, University of Maryland
FINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION, HOME EQUITY BIAS AND INTERNATIONAL RISK SHARING Gianluca Benigno, London School of Economics Co-Author: Hande Kucuk Tuger, London School of Economics
14:30 - 16:00 PUBLIC POLICY: EDUCATION (LACEA) Room 331 Chairperson: Tomás Rau, Universidad de Chile
EVIDENCE FROM NEIGHBORHOOD EFFECTS ON EDUCATIONAL PERFORMANCE IN THE CHILEAN SCHOOL VOUCHER SYSTEM Patricia Medrano, Universidad de Chile
PRINCIPALS AND STUDENT ACHIEVEMENT: EVIDENCE FROM THE CHILEAN COLLECTIVE PERFORMANCE INCENTIVE PROGRAM María Paola Sevilla, Centro de Microdatos, Departamento de Economía, UNiversidad de Chile Co-Authors: David Bravo, Centro de Microdatos, Departamento de Economia, Universidad de Chile and Leslie Miranda, Centro de Microdatos, Universidad de Chile
HOW DO CRISES AFFECT SCHOOLING DECISIONS? EVIDENCE FROM CHANGING LABOUR MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND A POLICY EXPERIMENT Florencia Lopez Boo, IDB/University of Oxford
TOURNAMENTS, GIFT EXCHANGES, AND THE EFFECT OF MONETARY INCENTIVE FOR TEACHERS: THE CASE OF CHILE Tomás Rau, Universidad de Chile Co-Author: Dante Contreras, Centro de Microdatos, Universidad de Chile
14:30 - 16:00 DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH (LACEA) Room 335 Chairperson: Murat Seker, World Bank
80 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
REVISITING THE REGIONAL GROWTH CONVERGENCE DEBATE IN COLOMBIA Boris Branisa Caballero, Georg August University Goettingen Co-Author: Adriana Rocio Cardozo Silva, PhD Student Georg August University Goettingen
IRREVERSIBILITY AND INVESTMENT DYNAMICS FOR CHILEAN MANUFACTURING PLANTS: A MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD APPROACH Olga M. Fuentes, Ministerio de Hacienda Co-Authors: Simon Gilchrist, Boston University and Marc Rysman, Boston University
DEMOGRAPHY, HUMAN CAPITAL AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN MEXICO: 1950-2005 Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu, Secretaria de Hacienda y Credito Publico
A STRUCTURAL MODEL OF ESTABLISHMENT AND INDUSTRY EVOLUTION: EVIDENCE FROM CHILE Murat Seker, World Bank
14:30 - 16:00 POVERTY AND PUBLIC POLICY II Room 349 (LACEA) Chairperson: Rafael De Hoyos, World Bank
STUDENTS AND THE MARKETS FOR SCHOOLS IN HAITI Gabriel Demombynes, World Bank
PUBLIC POLICIES FOR THE MDGS: THE CASE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC Carolina Diaz-Bonilla, World Bank Group Co-Authors: Martin Cicowiez, Universidad Nacional de la Plata and Hans Lofgren, World Bank Group
AN EX-ANTE EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF SOCIAL INSURANCE POLICIES ON LABOR SUPPLY IN BRAZIL: THE CASE FOR EXPLICIT OVER IMPLICIT REDISTRIBUTION David Robalino, World Bank Co-Authors: Luis Eduardo Afonso, FEA/USP, David Robalino, World Bank, Helio Zylberstajn, FEA/USP and Eduardo Zylberstajn, FGV/EESP
CAN MAQUILA BOOMS REDUCE POVERTY? EVIDENCE FROM HONDURAS Rafael De Hoyos, World Bank Co-Authors: Maurizio Bussolo, World Bank and Oscar Nunez, World Bank
14:30 - 16:00 ECONOMIC THEORY AND APPLICATIONS Room 401 (LACEA) Chairperson: Alonso Irasema, Yale inversity
GAMES OF CAPACITIES:A (CLOSE) LOOK AT NASH EQUILIBRIA Matteo Maria Triossi Verondini, CEA, Departamento de Ingenieria Industrial, Universidad de Chile. Co-Author: Antonio Romero-Medina, Universidad Carlos III
COMPETENCE EFFECTS FOR CHOICES INVOLVING GAINS AND LOSSES José Guilherme de Lara Resende, Universidade de Brasília Co-Author: George Wu, University of Chicago
81 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
OPTIMAL FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY UNDER SECTORIAL HETEROGENEITY Tiago Berriel, Princeton University Co-Author: Daniel Sinigaglia, PUC-Rio
THE DYNAMICS OF PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND WEALTH INEQUALITY WHEN CONSUMERS DIFFER IN AMBIGUITY AVERSION Alonso Irasema, Yale inversity
14:30 - 16:00 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LAMES - Econometrics and Empirical Economics
14:30 - 16:00 MONETARY POLICY AND BUSSINESS Room 130 CYCLES (LAMES EEE) Chairperson: Marcelo Portugal, UFRGS (Brazil)
ARE EURO INTEREST RATES LED BY FED ANNOUNCEMENTS? Andrea Monticini, Catholic University of Milan Co-Author: Giacomo Vaciago, Catholic University Milan
MONETARY POLICY AND RELATIVE PRICE VARIABILITY IN BRAZIL Cleomar Gomes da Silva, Fundação Getulio Vargas São Paulo Co-Author: Maria Carolina Leme, Escola de Economia de São Paulo Fundação Getulio Vargas
INFLATION DYNAMICS IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY MODEL UNDER INFLATION TARGETING. SOME EVIDENCE FROM CHILE. Marco Del Negro, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Co-Author: Frank Schorfheide,
CENTRAL BANK PREFERENCES AND MONETARY RULES UNDER THE INFLATION TARGETING REGIME IN BRAZIL Marcelo Portugal, UFRGS (Brazil) Co-Author: Edilean da Silva, UFGS (Brazil)
14:30 - 16:00 POLITICAL ECONOMY AND RD DESIGN Room 132 (LAMES EEE) Chairperson: Decio Coviello, European University Institute
DOES EDUCATION WIN ELECTIONS? Leonardo Bursztyn, Harvard University Co-Author: Igor Barenboim, Harvard University
PRESCHOOL AND MATERNAL LABOR SUPPLY: EVIDENCE FROM A REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY DESIGN Samuel Berlinski, University College London and Institute for Fiscal Studies Co-Authors: Sebastian Galiani, Washington University in St Louis and Patrick McEwan,
82 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
ELECTORAL RULES, POLITICAL COMPETITION AND FISCAL SPENDING: REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY EVIDENCE FROM BRAZILIAN MUNICIPALITIES João Manoel De Mello, PUC-Rio Co-Author: Marcos Chamon, International Monetary Fund
POLITICAL TURNOVER AND COMPETITION IN PUBLIC PROCUREMENT AUCTIONS Decio Coviello, European University Institute Co-Author: Stefano Gagliarducci, CEMFI
14:30 - 16:00 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS: Room 329 EMPIRICAL I (LAMES EEE) Chairperson: Nikola Gradojevic, Lakehead University, Faculty of Business Administration
AVOIDING THE DUTCH DISEASE: FISCAL POLICY RULE AND THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE IN CHILE Rodrigo Caputo, Central Bank of Chile Co-Authors: Marco Nuñez, Central Bank of Chile and Rodrigo Valdés, Barclayscapital
INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITIONS AND EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS: A DYNAMIC PANEL ANALYSIS Michael Binder, Goethe University Frankfurt Co-Author: Christian Offermanns,
QUO VADIS REAL? ESTIMATING THE BRAZILIAN REAL EXCHANGE RATE MISALIGNMENT Emerson Marçal, Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie and UNICAMP
WHEN DO INFORMED TRADERS ARRIVE IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS? Nikola Gradojevic, Lakehead University, Faculty of Business Administration Co-Authors: Ramazan Gencay, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University and Faruk Selcuk, Department of Economics, Bilkent University
14:30 - 16:00 LONG MEMORY (LAMES EEE) Room 333 Chairperson: Josu Arteche, University of the Basque Country
A NEW PROCEDURE TO TESTING FOR LONG-MEMORY Gómez Portilla Karoll, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, sede Medellín Co-Authors: Elkin Castaño Vélez, Universidad Nacional de Colombia and Santiago Gallón Gómez, Universidad Nacional de Colombia
DO WE HAVE LONG MEMORY? AFFINE TERM STRUCTURE MODEL WITH ARFIMA FACTORS Adam Golinski, Imperial College Business School
ROBUST ESTIMATION IN SEASONAL LONG-MEMORY PROCESSES WITH OUTLIERS Fabio Fajardo Molinares, Universidade Federal de MInas Gerais Co-Author: Valderio Reisen, UFES
83 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
USING THE BOOTSTRAP FOR THE CHOICE OF THE BANDWIDTH OF THE LOG-PERIODOGRAM REGRESSION IN LONG MEMORY TIME SERIES Josu Arteche, University of the Basque Country Co-Author: Orbe Jesus, University of the Basque Country
14:30 - 16:00 LABOR ECONOMICS (LAMES EEE) Room 345 Chairperson: Erdal Tekin, Georgia State University and NBER
SKILL UPGRADING AND THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE Roberto Alvarez, Central Bank of Chile and Intelis, University of Chile Co-Author: Ricardo López,
ENDOGENOUS LABOR MARKET PARTICIPATION AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE Christian Haefke, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna
THE LABOR WEDGE AS A MATCHING FRICTION Anton Cheremukhin, UCLA Co-Author: Paulina Restrepo Echavarria, UCLA
BODY COMPOSITION AND WAGES Erdal Tekin, Georgia State University and NBER Co-Author: Roy Wada, UCLA
14:30 - 16:00 FINANCE II (LAMES EEE) Room 347 Chairperson: Carlos Daniel Santos, University of Alicante
PRICE LEVEL TARGETING IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY WITH FINANCIAL FRICTIONS: WELFARE ANALYSIS Caterina Mendicino, Banco de Portugal Co-Authors: Dib Ali, Bank of Canada and Yahong Zhang, Bank of Canada
PROPRIETORS' INCOME: A QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE COSTS OF UNDER-DIVERSIFICATION Alan Moreira, University of Chicago
SEPARATING MEDIA COVERAGE FROM NEWS CONTENT EFFECTS ON STOCKS Asaf Manela, University of Chicago, Graduate School of Business
RECOVERING THE SUNK COSTS OF R&D: THE MOULDS INDUSTRY CASE Carlos Daniel Santos, University of Alicante
14:30 - 16:00 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LAMES - Theoretical and Applied Economics
14:30 - 16:00 GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM II (LAMES TAE) Room 224 Chairperson: Herve Roche, California Polytechnic State University
EXISTENCE OF EQUILIBRIUM IN FINANCIAL MARKETS: HART'S SECURITIES EXCHANGE MODEL WITH CONSUMPTION IN THE FIRST PERIOD Bonaldi Pietro, Universidad de los Andes
84 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
FIAT MONEY AND THE VALUE OF BINDING PORTFOLIO CONSTRAINTS Myrian Petrassi, Banco Central do Brasil Co-Authors: Mario Pascoa, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa and Juan Pablo Torres-Martinez, Department of Economics, University of Chile
BELIEF NON-EQUIVALENCE AND EQUILIBRIUM EXISTENCE Alvaro Riascos, UNIANDES Co-Author: Andres Carvajal, University of Warwick
SPECULATIVE RISK AVERSE INVESTOR BEHAVIOR IN A PURE EXCHANGE ECONOMY Herve Roche, California Polytechnic State University
14:30 - 16:00 INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION II (LAMES Room 228 TAE) Chairperson: Eugenio Miravete, University of Texas at Austin
UNSCHEDULED APPOINTMENTS Preston McAfee, Caltech, Yahoo Co-Author: Alan Miller, Caltech
THE PRICE THEORY OF TWO-SIDED MARKETS E. Glen Weyl, Harvard University and Toulouse School of Economics
PRICING WITH CUSTOMER RECOGNITION Rosa Branca Esteves, NIPE and Universidade do Minho
COMPETITIVE PRESSURE AND INNOVATION COMPLEMENTARITY Eugenio Miravete, University of Texas at Austin
16:00 - 16:15 COFFEE BREAK
16:15 - 17:15 INVITED LECTURES LACEA
16:15 - 17:15 CARLOS DIAZ ALEJANDRO LECTURE - Room Auditorium 1 SPONSORED BY VALE (LACEA) Chairperson: TBA
TRADE AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES Elhanan Helpman, Harvard University
16:15 - 17:15 INVITED LECTURES LAMES
16:15 - 17:15 CARLOS DIAZ ALEJANDRO LECTURE Room Auditorium 3 (LAMES) Chairperson: TBA
85 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
CONSUMPTION INEQUALITY AND PARTIAL INSURANCE Richard Blundell, University College London Co-Authors: Luigi Pistaferri, Stanford University, SIEPR and CEPR and Ian Preston, University College London and Institute for Fiscal Studies
17:15 - 18:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LACEA
17:15 - 18:45 FINANCE II (LACEA) Room Auditorium 2 Chairperson: Roberto Rigobon, MIT
THE IMPACT OF TAXATION ON OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO RULES OF PENSION FUNDS Katarzyna Romaniuk, Universidad de Santiago de Chile
EQUILIBRIUM PORTFOLIOS AND EXTERNAL ADJUSTMENT UNDER INCOMPLETE MARKETS Roberto Rigobon, MIT Co-Author: anna pavlova, LBS
CONTEMPORANEOUS TIME-VARYING THRESHOLD STAR MODELS Martin Sola, UTDT
17:15 - 18:45 FISCAL POLICY (LACEA) Room 130 Chairperson: Santiago Herrera, The World Bank
ENDOWMENTS, FISCAL FEDERALISM, AND THE COST OF CAPITAL FOR STATES: EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL, 1891-1930 Andre Martinez, Boston Univeristy Co-Author: Aldo Musacchio, Harvard Business School
MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND FISCAL POLICY IN BRAZIL: A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS Victor Gomes, Universidade de Brasilia Co-Author: Roberto Ellery Jr, Universidade de Brasilia
PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND CONSUMPTION VOLATILITY Santiago Herrera, The World Bank Co-Author: Bruno Vincent
17:15 - 18:45 GOVERNMENT SOCIAL INSURANCE Room 132 (LACEA) Chairperson: Javier Olivera, Catholic University of Leuven
WORK HISTORY AND THE ACCESS TO CONTRIBUTORY PENSIONS IN URUGUAY. SOME FACTS AND POLICY OPTIONS. Alvaro Forteza, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República, Uruguay Co-Authors: Marisa Bucheli, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República, Uruguay and Ianina Rossi, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República, Uruguay
CONSUMERS AND INVESTMENT PREFERENCES THROUGH LIFE- CYCLE Marola Castillo, Universidad de Chile
86 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
OPTIMAL ENROLMENT IN A PENSION SYSTEM AND INFORMAL FAMILY ARRANGEMENTS Javier Olivera, Catholic University of Leuven
17:15 - 18:45 THE ECONOMICS OF CRIME III (LACEA) Room 201 Chairperson: Rafael Dix Carneiro, Princeton University
THE EFFECT OF EDUCATION ON IN-PRISON CONFLICT: EVIDENCE FROM ARGENTINA Maria Laura Alzua, CEDLAS - Universidad Nacional de La Plata Co-Authors: Catherine Rodriguez, Universidad de Los Andres and Edgar Villa, Universidad Javeriana
GOOD COPS: INSTITUTIONAL ROOTS OF POLICE HONESTY IN CHILE Rodrigo Wagner, Harvard University
CRIME, GENDER AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT Rafael Dix Carneiro, Princeton University
17:15 - 18:45 GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM AND Room 228 APPLICATIONS (LACEA) Chairperson: V. Filipe Martins-da-Rocha, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation
COMPUTING NONOPTIMAL DYNAMIC COMPETITIVE EQUILIBRIA Adrian Peralta-Alva, Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis Co-Author: Manuel Santos, Department of Economics University of MIami
INDETERMINACY WITH EXTERNALITIES AND CAPITAL UTILIZATION Mohanad Ismael, University d'Evry Val d'Essonne Co-Author: Francesco MAGRIS, Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne
COLLATERAL, DEFAULT PENALTIES AND ENDOGENOUS DEBT CONSTRAINTS V. Filipe Martins-da-Rocha, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation Co-Author: Yiannis Vailakis, School of Business and Economics, University of Exeter
17:15 - 18:45 INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION II (LACEA) Room 236 Chairperson: Juan-Pablo Montero, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
PRICE-ELASTICITIES AND INVENTORIES Helena Perrone, Toulouse School of Economics
ON COMPETITION INTENSITY, TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE AND WELFARE Jose C. Melendez, Tinbergen Institute, Free University Ams
ON COASE AND HOTELLING Juan-Pablo Montero, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile Co-Author: Matti Liski, Helsinki School of Economics
87 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
17:15 - 18:45 MONEY AND FINANCE (LACEA) Room 329 Chairperson: Paul McNelis, Fordham University
LOSS AVOIDANCE WITH FRAMES, FAIRNESS AND COORDINATION FAILURE IN DISINFLATION André Lunardelli, Universidade Federal de Goiás
CAPITAL FLOWS AND BUSINESS CYCLES IN LATIN AMERICA DURING 1920S-30S. A SECOND LOOK FROM A NEOCLASSICAL PERSPECTIVE Andres Fernandez, Rutgers University
A BAYESIAN COMPARISON OF THE CLASSICAL GOLD STANDARD AND THE GREAT MODERATION Paul McNelis, Fordham University
17:15 - 18:45 THE ECONOMICS OF CONFLICTS Room 331 (LACEA) Chairperson: Oeindrila Dube, Harvard University
HUMAN CAPITAL CONSEQUENCES OF CIVIL WAR: EVIDENCE FROM GUATEMALA Hilcias Estuardo Moran, Indiana University and Banco de Guatemala Co-Author: Rubiana Chamarbagwala, Indiana University
MILITARY EMPOWERMENT AND CIVILIAN TARGETING IN CIVIL WAR Juan Vargas, Universidad del Rosario
COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS AND CIVIL CONFLICT: EVIDENCE FROM COLOMBIA Oeindrila Dube, Harvard University
17:15 - 18:45 EXTERNAL CREDIT (LACEA) Room 335 Chairperson: Gaston Gelos, IMF
LENDING-RATE SPREADS, FINANCIAL DOLLARIZATION, AND CREDITOR PROTECTION Gabriel Martinez, Ave Maria University
THE VOLATILITY COSTS OF PROCYCLICAL LENDING STANDARDS: AN ASSESSMENT USING A DSGE MODEL. Silvia Sgherri, International Monetary Fund Co-Author: Bertrand Carlos Gruss, European University Institute
SOVEREIGN BORROWING BY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: WHAT DETERMINES MARKET ACCESS? Gaston Gelos, IMF Co-Authors: Ratna Sahay, and Guido Sandleris, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
17:15 - 18:45 FAMILY AND EDUCATION III (LACEA) Room 345 Chairperson: Enrique Gilles, Universidad del Rosario and Toulouse School of Economics
THE MATERNAL HUMAN CAPITAL SPILLOVER IN AN HETEROGENEOUS AGENT ENVIRONMENT: AN APPLICATION TO BRAZIL AND MEXICO. Francisca Dussaillant , Pontificia Universidad Católica
88 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE INCREASE IN THE DEMAND FOR SKILLED LABOR IN BRAZIL FROM 1997 TO 2003 Eduardo Ribeiro, Institute of Economics / UFRJ Co-Author: Paulo Jacinto, Universidade Federal de Alagoas
PUBLIC EDUCATION, SUBSIDIES AND VOTING Enrique Gilles, Universidad del Rosario and Toulouse School of Economics Co-Author: Hernando Zuleta, Brown University
17:15 - 18:45 EDUCATION AND DEVELOPMENT Room 349 (LACEA) Chairperson: Yuemei Ji, K.U.Leuven
THE BRAZILIAN EDUCATION QUALITY INDEX (IDEB): MEASUREMENT AND INCENTIVES UPGRADES Gabriel Buchmann, IBRE Co-Author: Marcelo Cortes Neri, Fundação Getúlio Vargas
FREE-RIDER AND GAMING IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF REVENUES ACROSS SCHOOLS Eduardo Andrade, Ibmec Sao Paulo Co-Authors: Mauricio Bugarin, Ibmec Sao Paulo, Fabio Miessi, London School of Economics and Bruno Rocha, Tendências Consultoria Integrada
FISCAL RULES FOR COMMODITY EXPORTERS Jorge Restrepo, central bank of chile Co-Authors: Garcia Carlos, professor in economics Ilades-Georgetown University and evan tanner, IMF
17:15 - 18:45 FINANCE (LACEA) Room 401 Chairperson: Marcos Chamon, International Monetary Fund
THE COST OF CORPORATE BOND FINANCING IN LATIN AMERICA Martin Grandes, Center for Financial Stability and The American University of Paris and Ricardo Aníbal Pasquini, Center for Financial Stability of Argentina Co-Author: Demian Tupac Panigo, EHESS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata y CEIL-PIETTE del CONICET
DO CREDIT RATING AGENCIES ADD VALUE? Andrew Powell, Inter- American Development Bank Co-Authors: Eduardo Cavallo, Inter-American Development Bank and Roberto Rigobon, MIT
IS THERE A NOVELTY PREMIUM ON NEW FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS? THE ARGENTINE EXPERIENCE WITH GDP- INDEXED WARRANTS Marcos Chamon, International Monetary Fund Co-Authors: Alejo Costa, University of Chicago and Luca Ricci, International Monetary Fund
17:15 - 18:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LAMES - Econometrics and Empirical Economics
17:15 - 18:45 MONETARY POLICY: EMPIRICAL I Room Auditorium 3 (LAMES EEE) Chairperson: Munir Jalil, Associate Professor
89 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
INFLATION AND INTEREST RATE: WHICH ONE IS MORE PERSISTENT IN BRAZIL? Maria Carolina Leme, Escola de Economia de São Paulo Fundação Getulio Vargas Co-Author: Cleomar Gomes da Silva, Fundação Getulio Vargas São Paulo
STICKY-INFORMATION VS. BACKWARD-LOOKING INDEXATION: INFLATION INERTIA IN THE U.S. Julio Carrillo, Maastricht University
COMBINING TESTS OF PREDICTIVE ABILITY:THEORY AND EVIDENCE FOR CHILEAN AND CANADIAN EXCHANGE RATES Pablo Pincheira, Central Bank of Chile
UNDERSTANDING THE EVOLVING INFLATION PROCESS AND ITS INTERACTION WITH MONETARY POLICY: AN APPLICATION FOR COLOMBIA AND A GROUP OF LATIN-AMERICAN ECONOMIES Munir Jalil, Associate Professor
17:15 - 18:45 ESTIMATING EULER EQUATIONS (LAMES Room 206 EEE) Chairperson: Laura Chioda, World Bank, LCRCE
LACK OF SIGNAL ERROR (LOSE) AND IMPLICATIONS FOR OLS REGRESSION: MEASUREMENT ERROR FOR MACRO DATA Jeremy Nalewaik, Federal Reserve Board
IDENTIFYING EULER EQUATION MODELS VIA STABILITY RESTRICTIONS Leandro Magnusson, Tulane University Co-Author: Sophocles Mavroeidis, Brown University
ESTIMATING EULER EQUATIONS WITH MEASUREMENT ERROR: A NONPARAMETRIC APPROACH Laura Chioda, World Bank, LCRCE
17:15 - 18:45 AGGREGATION AND DURATION Room 224 DEPENDENCE (LAMES EEE) Chairperson: Laura Mayoral, Institute for Economic Analysis
DURATION DEPENDENCE VERSUS HETEROGENEITY RECONSIDERED AND: UNEMPLOYMENT IN WESTERN EUROPE Maximilian Kasy, Department of Economics, UC Berkeley
UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION AND BUSINESS CYCLE IN ARGENTINA. A QUANTILE REGRESSION ANALYSIS. Ana Paula Monsalvo, Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento Co-Author: Roxana Maurizio, Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento
FORECASTING A MONETARY AGGREGATE IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT:ARGENTINA AFTER 2002 Hildegart Ahumada, Di Tella University Co-Author: Maria Lorena Garegnani, Central Bank of Argentina
HETEROGENOUS DYNAMICS, AGGREGATION AND THE PERSISTENCE OF ECONOMIC SHOCKS Laura Mayoral, Institute for Economic Analysis
90 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
17:15 - 18:45 LABOR MARKET AND POLICY Room 333 EVALUATION (LAMES EEE) Chairperson: Marc Gurgand, Paris School of Economics
THE SHORT-TIME COMPENSATION PROGRAM: AN EFFICIENT MEASURE AGAINST REDUNDANCIES? Oana Calavrezo, Laboratoire d''Economie d''Orléans / CEE Co-Authors: Richard Duhautois, CEE/CREST and Emmanuelle Walkowiak, Université de Paris 12 / CEE
BETTER-INFORMED WORKERS AND RETIREMENT SAVINGS DECISIONS: IMPACT EVALUATION OF A PERSONALIZED PENSION PROJECTION IN CHILE Eduardo Fajnzylber, Chilean Superintendency of Pensions Co-Authors: Gonzalo Plaza, Superintendencia de Pensiones and Gonzalo Reyes, Superintendencia de Pensiones - Chile
THE DETERMINANTS OF RISING INFORMALITY IN BRAZIL: EVIDENCE FROM GROSS WORKER FLOWS Edwin Goni Pacchioni, European University Institute Co-Authors: Mariano Bosch, Universidad de Alicante and William Maloney, World Bank
POLICY EVALUATION IN EQUILIBRIUM: THE CASE OF JOB- SEARCH COUNSELING IN FRANCE Marc Gurgand, Paris School of Economics Co-Authors: Pierre Cahuc, Crest, Bruno Crépon, Crest and Julien Guitard, Crest
17:15 - 18:45 INCOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN Room 347 COUNTRIES (LAMES EEE) Chairperson: German Cubas, University of Iowa
CONNECTING THE UNOBSERVED DOTS:A DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN EARNINGS INEQUALITY IN URBAN ARGENTINA, 1980-2002 Gabriel Demombynes, World Bank
LIFE-CYCLE EARNINGS AND PRODUCTIVITY RISK: A CROSS- COUNTRY COMPARISON Falko Juessen, TU Dortmund University Co-Author: Christian Bayer, IGIER, Università Commerciale L. Bocconi
ECONOMIC GROWTH IN A TWO AGENT ECONOMY Carlos Dabús, CONICET and Universidad Nacional del Sur Co-Author: Fernando Tohmé, CONICET and Universidad Nacional del Sur
ACCOUNTING FOR CROSS-COUNTRY INCOME DIFFERENCES WITH PUBLIC CAPITAL German Cubas, University of Iowa
17:15 - 18:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LAMES - Theoretical and Applied Economics
17:15 - 18:45 INTERNATIONAL FINANCE II (LAMES Room Auditorium 1 TAE) Chairperson: Veronica Rappoport, Columbia University, GSB 91 SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2008
AGGREGATION AND THE PPP PUZZLE IN A STICKY PRICE MODEL Fernanda Nechio, Princeton University Co-Author: Carlos Viana de Carvalho, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
QUOTAS AND VOTING SHARES IN THE IMF: THEORY Martin Gonzalez-Eiras, Universidad de San Andres
STOCK MARKET LIBERALIZATION AND INTERNATIONAL RISK SHARING Shigeru Iwata, University of Kansas Co-Author: Shu Wu, University of Kansas
THE ROLE OF MULTINATIONAL PRODUCTION IN CROSS- COUNTRY RISK SHARING Veronica Rappoport, Columbia University, GSB
17:15 - 18:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LACEA-LAMES
17:15 - 18:45 HEALTH ECONOMICS (LACEA-LAMES) Room 232 Chairperson: Aureo de Paula, University of Pennsylvania
MORAL HAZARD AND LONG-TERM ABSENTEEISM -- EVIDENCE FROM A NATURAL EXPERIMENT Nicolas Ziebarth, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW)
EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF COMMUNITY BASED HEALTH INTERVENTIONS: EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL'S FAMILY HEALTH PROGRAM Romero Rocha, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio) Co-Author: Rodrigo Soares, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro
A NEW RATIONAL FOR COST REIMBURSMENT: PRICE REGULATION WITH HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL DIFFERENTIATION David Bardey, Toulouse School of Economics Co-Authors: Chiara Canta, oulouse School of EconomicsT and Jean Marie Lozachmeur, Toulouse Scholl of Economics
HOW BELIEFS ABOUT HIV STATUS AFFECT RISKY BEHAVIORS: EVIDENCE FROM MALAWI Aureo de Paula, University of Pennsylvania Co-Author: Petra Todd, University of Pennsylvania
18:45 - 19:45 KEYNOTE LECTURE
18:45 - 19:45 KEYNOTE LECTURE - SPONSORED BY PETROBRAS Room Auditorium 2 (LACEA-LAMES) Chairperson: TBA
ELECTIONS AND STRATEGIC VOTING: CONDORCET AND BORDA Eric Maskin, Princeton University 92 SUNDAY 23 NOVEMBER 2008
DAY OVERVIEW
08:30 - 10:00 Sponsored and Contributed Sessions 10:00 - 10:15 Coffee Break 10:15 - 11:45 Sponsored and Contributed Sessions 12:00 - 13:15 Closing Panel
08:30 - 10:00 CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LACEA
08:30 - 10:00 INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY Room 206 (LACEA) Chairperson: Joaquim Andrade, UnB
DID THE TAYLOR RULE STABILIZE INFLATION IN BRAZIL? Rodrigo Bueno, FGV - EAESP
DOES THE HAZARD RATE FOR PRICE CHANGES INCREASES WITH INFLATION? EVIDENCE FROM QUALITATIVE DATA Harold Vasquez-Ruiz, Georgia State university
INFLATION TARGETING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES: PANEL EVIDENCE Ricardo Brito, Ibmec São Paulo
THE ROLE OF PUBLIC DEBT AND THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM OF MONETARY POLICY IN BRAZIL Joaquim Andrade, UnB Co-Author: Manoel Pires, IPEA
08:30 - 10:00 INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND MIGRATION Room 232 (LACEA) Chairperson: Cristina Terra, Fundação Getulio Vargas
INCOME POLICIES, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF OPPORTUNITIES IN BRAZIL Marcelo Cortes Neri, Fundação Getúlio Vargas
COUNTERFACTUAL ANALYSIS OF BRAZIL’S BOLSA FAMÍLIA PROGRAMME FOR THE PERIOD 2004-2006 Alan Costa, CEDEPLAR/UFMG Co-Authors: SIBELLE DINIZ, CEDEPLAR and MARCIO SALVATO, IBMEC-MG
ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY AND WAGES IN BRAZIL: EVIDENCE FROM MICRO-DATA Cristina Terra, Fundação Getulio Vargas Co-Authors: Rodrigo Paillacar, Paris I and Fally Thibault, PSE
08:30 - 10:00 DEVELOPMENT (LACEA) Room 236 Chairperson: Juan M. Domínguez, ESPAE- Graduate School of Management, ESPOL 93 SUNDAY 23 NOVEMBER 2008
BIO-FUEL MARKET: HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIOS Juan M. Domínguez, ESPAE-Graduate School of Management, ESPOL
THE DETERMINANTS AND IMPACT OF TELECOMMUNICATIONS REFORMS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Laura Recuero Virto, Telecom ParisTech Co-Author: Farid Gasmi, Toulouse School of Economics
IMPACT OF FISCAL INCENTIVES TO R&D: EVALUATING THE EFFECTS OF THE PDTI IN BRAZIL Ana Paula Avellar, Universidade Federal de Uberlândia
08:30 - 10:00 INSTITUTIONS AND DEVELOPMENT Room 331 (LACEA) Chairperson: Eduardo Cavallo, Inter- American Development Bank
SOCIAL TIES AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Jose Anchorena, University of Oslo Co-Author: Fernando Anjos, ISCTE Business School
SCHOOL MARKETS: THE IMPACT OF INFORMATION APPROXIMATING SCHOOLS’ EFFECTIVENESS Alejandra Mizala, University of Chile Co-Author: Miguel Urquiola, Columbia University and NBER
THE FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF CHILDHOOD SKILL ACQUISITION: EVIDENCE FROM INDIA Christian Rodrigo Helmers, Oxford University Co-Author: Manasa Patnam, University of Cambridge
ARE CRISES GOOD FOR LONG TERM GROWTH? THE ROLE OF POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS Eduardo Cavallo, Inter-American Development Bank Co-Author: Alberto Cavallo, Harvard university
08:30 - 10:00 FAMILY AND EDUCATION IV (LACEA) Room 335 Chairperson: Marcelo Rezende, Ibmec Business School Rio de Janeiro
EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF THE PROGRESSÃO CONTINUADA PROGRAM ON STUDENT FLOW RATES AND PERFORMANCE IN BRAZIL Lígia Vasconcellos, Banco Itaú Co-Authors: Roberta L. Biondi, Banco Itaú, Naercio Menezes-Filho, FEA-USP and Ibmec/SP and Sérgio R. C. Werlang , Banco Itaú and EPGE/FGV
THE IMPACT OF CASH TRANSFERS ON SCHOOL ENROLLMENT: EVIDENCE FROM ECUADOR Juan Ponce, Flacso-Ecuador Co-Authors: Hessel Oosterbeek, Amsterdam School of Economics and the Tinbergen Institute and Norbert Schady, World Bank
THE EFFECTS OF ACCOUNTABILITY ON HIGHER EDUCATION Marcelo Rezende, Ibmec Business School Rio de Janeiro
08:30 - 10:00 EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES (LACEA) Room 349 Chairperson: Leopoldo Avellan, ESPOL
REAL EXCHANGE RATE MISALIGNMENTS Megumi Kubota, University of York
94 SUNDAY 23 NOVEMBER 2008
FOREIGN EXCHANGE INTERVENTION AND EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY IN PERU Alberto Humala, Central Bank of Peru Co-Author: Gabriel Rodríguez, Central Bank of Peru
SPECULATION AND THE DECISION TO ABANDON A FIXED EXCHANGE RATE REGIME: BRAZIL 1999 Adriana Ponta, Universidade Nova de Lisboa/ Universidade Federal Fluminense
DO MULTIPLE EXCHANGE RATES STOP CAPITAL OUTFLOWS? EVIDENCE FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Leopoldo Avellan, ESPOL
08:30 - 10:00 INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION III (LACEA) Room 401 Chairperson: Rosa Branca Esteves, NIPE and Universidade do Minho
PLANT LEVEL EVIDENCE ON PRODUCT MIX CHANGES IN CHILEAN MANUFACTURING Lucas Navarro, Universidad Alberto Hurtado, Chile
ADVERSE SELECTION AND THE REGULATION OF THE PRIVATE HEALTH INSURANCE SYSTEM IN BRAZIL Ana Carolina Maia, CEDEPLAR-UFMG Co-Author: Monica Viegas Andrade, CEDEPLAR-UFMG
RELEVANT MARKET DELINEATION AND HORIZONTAL MERGER SIMULATION: A UNIFIED APPROACH Eduardo Fiuza, IPEA
PRICE DISCRIMINATION WITH PRIVATE AND IMPERFECT INFORMATION Rosa Branca Esteves, NIPE and Universidade do Minho
08:30 - 10:00 CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LAMES - Econometrics and Empirical Economics
08:30 - 10:00 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS: Room Auditorium 3 EMPIRICAL II (LAMES EEE) Chairperson: Luiz Gustavo Cassilatti Furlani, Banco Cooperativo SICREDI S/A
A CENTURY AND A HALF OF PURCHASING POWER PARITY IN BRAZIL: A COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS WITH STRUCTURAL BREAKS Ulisses Ruiz-de-Gamboa, Universidade de São Paulo Co-Author: Vera Lucia Fava, Universidade de São Paulo
REAL EXCHANGE RATE IN URUGUAY: A PERIODIC COINTEGRATION APPROACH Elizabeth Bucacos, Central Bank of Uruguay
CURRENCY DEPRECIATIONS, FINANCIAL TRANSFERS, AND FIRM HETEROGENEITY Michael Brei, Bonn Graduate School of Economics Co-Author: Matthieu Charpe, Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques
EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS AND MONETARY POLICY IN BRAZIL: ECONOMETRIC AND SIMULATION EVIDENCE Luiz Gustavo Cassilatti Furlani, Banco Cooperativo SICREDI S/A Co-Authors: Márcio Poletti Laurini, Ibmec-SP and Marcelo Portugal, UFRGS (Brazil) 95 SUNDAY 23 NOVEMBER 2008
08:30 - 10:00 FINANCE IV (LAMES EEE) Room 130 Chairperson: Filip Zikes, Imperial College London
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF THE TWO FACTOR GIBSON-SCHWARTZ MODEL: IMPLICATIONS FOR VALUING COMMODITY CONTINGENT CLAIMS Ricardo Avelino, Universidade de São Paulo
ASSESSING DEPENDENCE BETWEEN FINANCIAL MARKET INDEXES USING CONDITIONAL TIME-VARYING COPULAS: APPLICATIONS TO VALUE AT RISK (VAR) Osvaldo Candido Silva Filho, PPGE/UFRGS Co-Author: Flávio Augusto Ziegelmann, London School of Economics
TESTING FOR NORMALITY AND INDEPENDENCE OF ASSET RETURNS USING HIGH-FREQUENCY DATA Filip Zikes, Imperial College London
08:30 - 10:00 TIME SERIES ANALYSIS (LAMES EEE) Room 132 Chairperson: Nikolaos Kourogenis, University of Piraeus
FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY: THE SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE OF CONDITIONAL COMBINATIONS OF TIME SERIES AND OPTION IMPLIED FORECASTS. Guillermo Benavides, Banco de Mexico Co-Author: Carlos Capistrán, Banco de Mexico
FORECASTING INFLATION IN ARGENTINA: INDIVIDUAL MODELS OR FORECAST POOLING? Laura Ines D'Amato, BCRA UBA UNLP Co-Authors: Emilio Blanco , BCRA and Maria Lorena Garegnani, Central Bank of Argentina
LONG-RUN STRONG-EXOGENEITY Christophe Rault, LEO, University of Orléans
ESTIMATION AND HYPOTHESIS TESTING OF A COINTEGRATING VECTOR UNDER A POSSIBLE VARIANCE BREAK Nikolaos Kourogenis, University of Piraeus Co-Authors: Ekaterini Panopoulou, University of Piraeus and Nikitas Pittis, University of Piraeus
08:30 - 10:00 FINANCE: INTEREST RATES (LAMES Room 333 EEE) Chairperson: Jose Angelo Divino, Catholic University of Brasilia
INVESTMENT GRADE COUNTRIES YIELD CURVE DYNAMICS Rubens Morita, FGV-EESP Co-Author: Rodrigo Bueno, FGV - EAESP
MODELING AND FORECASTING THE BRAZILIAN TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES BY AN EXTENDED NELSON- SIEGEL CLASS OF MODELS: A QUANTILE AUTOREGRESSION APPROACH Rafael Rezende, Center for Development and Regional Planning Co-Author: Mauro Ferreira, Federation of the Industries of the State of Minas Gerais and CEDEPLAR
96 SUNDAY 23 NOVEMBER 2008
MACRO-FINANCE MODELS COMBINING DAILY AND MONTHLY DATA Ajax Moreira, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA) Co-Author: Marco Shinobu Matsumura, IPEA
FORECASTING THE YIELD CURVE FOR BRAZIL Jose Angelo Divino, Catholic University of Brasilia Co-Authors: Daniel Cajueiro, University of Brasilia and Benjamin Tabak, Central Bank of Brasil
08:30 - 10:00 FINANCE III (LAMES EEE) Room 345 Chairperson: Georges Bresson, ERMES (CNRS) - University Paris 2
FINANCIAL RISK MEASURES USING DYNAMIC COPULAS: AN APPLICATION TO THE COLOMBIAN MARKET Luis Melo, Banco de la Republica
Co-Author: Becerra Oscar, Fedesarrollo
TESTING CONSUMPTION-BASED ASSET PRICING MODELS WITH FACTOR MODEL ANALYSIS Carlos Enrique Carrasco Gutierrez, FUCAPE Business School and FGV/EPGE/RJ Co-Author: João Victor Issler, FGV/EPGE/RJ
A FUNCTIONAL CONNECTIVITY APPROACH FOR MODELING CROSS-SECTIONAL DEPENDENCE WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE ESTIMATION OF HEDONIC HOUSING PRICES IN PARIS Georges Bresson, ERMES (CNRS) - University Paris 2 Co-Author: Cheng Hsiao, Econometric Society member
08:30 - 10:00 CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LAMES - Theoretical and Applied Economics
08:30 - 10:00 MECHANISM DESIGN III (LAMES TAE) Room Auditorium 1 Chairperson: Dragan Filipovich, CEE, El Colegio de Mexico
ITERATIVELY STABLE EQUILIBRIA IN CHEAP TALK GAMES Sidartha Gordon, Université de Montreal
DYNAMIC CONTRACTS UNDER LOSS AVERSION Sofia Moroni, Universidad de Chile Co-Authors: Alejandro Jofré, Universidad de Chile and Andrea Repetto, Universidad Adolfo Ibañez
NONLINEAR PRICING BEYOND THE DEMAND PROFILE APPROACH Sergei Vieira Silva, IMPA Co-Authors: Aloisio Araujo, FGV/EPGE and IMPA and Humberto Moreira, FGV -- EPGE
LIMITING EQUILIBRIA IN A CHEAP TALK GAME WITH A CIRCULAR STATE SPACE Dragan Filipovich, CEE, El Colegio de Mexico
08:30 - 10:00 INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION III (LAMES Room Auditorium 2 TAE) Chairperson: Isabelle Perrigne, Pennsylvania State University
97 SUNDAY 23 NOVEMBER 2008
REGULATION OF PHARMACEUTICALS AFTER GENERIC ENTRY Rafael Pinho de Morais, Getulio Vargas Foundation / TSE
QUANTITY-BEFORE-PRICE AUCTION: EVALUATING THE PERFORMANCE OF THE BRAZILIAN EXISTING ENERGY MARKET Rodrigo Moita, Ibmec Sao Paulo Co-Author: Leonardo Rezende, PUC-Rio
NONLINEAR PRICING IN YELLOW PAGES Isabelle Perrigne, Pennsylvania State University
08:30 - 10:00 ORGANIZATION AND TRADE (LAMES Room 224 TAE) Chairperson: Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné, HEC Montréal
INSTITUTIONS, TRUST AND THE CHOICE BETWEEN OUTSOURCING AND FDI Pedro Bretan, EPGE/FGV
GLOBAL SOURCING UNDER IMPERFECT CAPITAL MARKETS Juan Carluccio, Paris School of Economics Co-Author: Fally Thibault, PSE
THE SUPPLY CHAIN STRUCTURE MATTERS FOR TRADE Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné, HEC Montréal
08:30 - 10:00 GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT II (LAMES Room 228 TAE) Chairperson: Arilton Teixeira, FUCAPE
DOES VIOLENCE DETER INVESTMENT, HINDER ECONOMIC GROWTH? Paulo R. A. Loureiro, Universidade Catolica de Brasilia Co-Author: Emilson Silva, School of Economics, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30309-0615, USA
A GROWTH MODEL FOR MEXICO, 1985.1 – 2008.1 SEARCHING FOR KLINGSOR Eduardo Loria, National Autonomous University of Mexico Co-Authors: Manuel Garcia, UNAM, Jorge Ramirez, UAEM and Daniel Torres, UNAM
THE SETTLEMENT OF THE MIDWEST AND THE INDUSTRIALIZATION OF THE NORTHEAST Arilton Teixeira, FUCAPE
08:30 - 10:00 MONETARY POLICY: EMPIRICAL II Room 329 (LAMES TAE) Chairperson: Bruno Rocha, Tendências Consultoria Integrada
ESTIMATING THE DEGREE OF FISCAL DOMINANCE IN A DSGE MODEL WITH STICKY PRICES AND NON-ZERO TREND INFLATION Carlos Resende, Bank of Canada Co-Author: Nooman Rebei, African Development Bank.
SAMBA: STOCHASTIC ANALYTICAL MODEL WITH A BAYESIAN APPROACH André Minella, Banco Central do Brasil Co-Authors: Solange Gouvea, Central Bank of Brazil, Rafael Chaves Santos, Policy Advisor - Central Bank of Brazil and Nelson Sobrinho, BCB
98 SUNDAY 23 NOVEMBER 2008
DO CENTRAL BANKS REACT TO HOUSE PRICES? Virginia Queijo von Heideken, Riksbank Co-Author: Daria Finocchiaro, Riksbank
THE MECHANISM FOR MONETARY TRANSMISSION IN BRAZILIAN STATES: A DYNAMIC FACTOR MODEL APPROACH Bruno Rocha, Tendências Consultoria Integrada Co-Author: Marcio Nakane, Sao Paulo University
08:30 - 10:00 DEMOGRAPHIC AND EDUCATION Room 347 ECONOMICS (LAMES TAE) Chairperson: Ricardo Paredes, Universidad Católica de Chile
THE EARNING LOSSES AFTER MIGRATION IN BRAZIL Ricardo Freguglia, Federal University of Juiz de Fora - UFJF Co-Author: Naercio Menezes-Filho, FEA-USP and Ibmec/SP
MIGRATION AND REGIONAL LABOR MARKET Flávia Chein, CEDEPLAR/FACE/UFMG Co-Authors: Juliano Assunção, Departamento de Economia PUC-Rio and Mauro LEMOS, Cedeplar/UFMG
THE EFFECTS OF ADULT ALPHABETIZATION ON EARNINGS AND EMPLOYMENT Mauna Baldini, EESP-FGV Co-Author: Vladimir Ponczek, EESP - FGV/SP
I WOULD WALK 500 MILES (IF IT PAID) Ricardo Paredes, Universidad Católica de Chile Co-Authors: Rómulo Chumacero, Central Bank of Chile and University of Chile and Daniel Gomez, Universidad Católica
10:00 - 10:15 COFFEE BREAK
10:15 - 11:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LACEA
10:15 - 11:45 UNDP PANEL ON MIGRATION (LACEA) Room Auditorium 2 Chairperson: Francisco Rodríguez, UNDP
DO ATTITUDES TOWARDS IMMIGRANTS MATTER? Gisela Waisman, Stockholm University Co-Author: Birthe Larsen, Centre for Business Research (CEBR) and Copenhagen Business School
RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION AND WAGES IN PARAGUAY Carlos Villalobos Barria, Development economics Research group Uni- Goettingen Co-Author: Thomas Otter, LACEA
INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF ABILITIES AND SELF SELECTION OF MEXICAN IMMIGRANTS Vincenzo Caponi, Ryerson University
THE 2009 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT ON THE MOVE Francisco Rodríguez, UNDP
99 SUNDAY 23 NOVEMBER 2008
10:15 - 11:45 POVERTY AND INEQUALITY II (LACEA) Room 228 Chairperson: Nestor Gandelman, Universidad ORT Uruguay
PUBLIC PRIMARY HEALTH CARE AND CHILD HEALTH IN BRAZIL: EVIDENCE FROM SIBLINGS Mauricio Reis, IPEA
SCALING-UP EFFECTS IN EXPERIMENTAL POLICY EVALUATIONS. EVIDENCE FROM PROGRESA/OPORTUNIDADES IN MEXICO Matteo Bobba, Paris School of Economics
POVERTY TRAPS AND LOW INCOME DYNAMICS IN RURAL MEXICO USING DATA FROM OPORTUNIDADES (PROGRESA) (1997-2006) Vera Chiodi, Paris School of Economics
TITLING AND CHRONIC DISEASES: EVIDENCE FROM A NATURAL EXPERIMENT IN URUGUAY Nestor Gandelman, Universidad ORT Uruguay
10:15 - 11:45 EDUCATIONAL PERFORMANCE IN Room 232 BRAZIL (LACEA) Chairperson: Zaitune Curi Andrea, University of São Paulo and Tendências Consultoria Integrada
TEENAGE MOTHERHOOD, EDUCATION AND LABOUR MARKET OUTCOMES OF THE MOTHER: EVIDENCE FROM BRAZILIAN DATA Renata Narita, UCL
INTERGENERATIONAL ALTRUISM IN PUBLIC EDUCATION EXPENDITURE WHEN THERE IS CO-RESIDENCE BETWEEN THE ELDERLY AND YOUTH Ana Carolina Zoghbi, CEPESP-FGVSP Co-Author: Paulo Arvate, FGV and Michigan State University
MATERNAL LABOR AND CHILD’S SCHOOL PERFORMANCE: AN ANALYZE OF SCHOOLING ADVANCE PROBABILITY Juliana Aquino, USP Co-Author: Pazello Elaine, FEA-RP / USP
THE DETERMINANTS OF EXPENDITURES ON EDUCATION IN BRAZIL Zaitune Curi Andrea, University of São Paulo and Tendências Consultoria Integrada Co-Author: Naercio Menezes-Filho, FEA-USP and Ibmec/SP
10:15 - 11:45 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS IV (LACEA) Room 236 Chairperson: Christophe Rault, LEO, University of Orléans
THE ROLE OF DOMESTIC FUNDAMENTALS ON THE ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY OF EMERGING MARKETS Katia Rocha, IPEA & PUC-RIO (DEI) Co-Author: Ajax Moreira, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
100 SUNDAY 23 NOVEMBER 2008
EFFECTS OF CREDIT MARKET QUALITY ON TRADE PATTERN Enrico Vasconcelos, Ministerio da Fazenda and EPGE/FGV Co-Author: Cristina Terra, Fundação Getulio Vargas
ON THE BILATERAL TRADE EFFECTS OF FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE EU-15 AND THE CEEC-4 COUNTRIES Christophe Rault, LEO, University of Orléans Co-Author: Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Brunel University
10:15 - 11:45 POLITICAL ECONOMY AND ELECTIONS Room 335 (LACEA) Chairperson: Mauricio Bugarin, Ibmec Sao Paulo
CHOOSING A CANDIDATE: PARTY PRIMARIES AND QUALITY OF POLITICIANS Fernando Aragon, London School of Economics
LEGISLATIVE MALAPPORTIONMENT AND ECONOMIC OUTCOMES:A FIRST ASSESSMENT Massimiliano Onorato, Department Economics - Bocconi University Co-Authors: Miriam Bruhn, Research Department, The WorldBank and Francisco Gallego, Department of Economics and Economic History and Cliometrics Laboratory, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
CAMPAIGN ADVERTISING AND ELECTION OUTCOMES: QUASI- NATURAL EXPERIMENT EVIDENCE FROM GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS IN BRAZIL João Manoel De Mello, PUC-Rio Co-Author: Bernardo Silveira, New York University
INEQUALITY AND COST OF ELECTORAL CAMPAIGNS IN LATIN AMERICA Mauricio Bugarin, Ibmec Sao Paulo Co-Authors: Adriana Portugal, Tribunal de Contas do Distrito Federal and Sergio Sakurai, Universidade de Sao Paulo - Rebeirao Preto
10:15 - 11:45 LABOR ECONOMICS V (LACEA) Room 349 Chairperson: G. David Rosas Shady, Inter- American Development Bank
INCOME TRANSFERS AND THE LABOR MARKET Márcio Veras Corrêa, CAEN - Universidade Federal do Ceará Co-Author: Tiago Cavalcanti, University of Cambridge
THE EFFECT OF CHANGES IN MATERNITY LEAVE POLICY ON LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES FOR FEMALES IN BRAZIL Viviane M Bastos Bastos, Georgia State University/ Universidad de Santiago de Chile
INTER-REGIONAL AND INTER-INDUSTRY WAGE DIFFERENTIALS WITH INDIVIDUAL HETEROGENEITY: ESTIMATES USING BRAZILIAN DATA Ricardo Freguglia, Federal University of Juiz de Fora - UFJF Co-Author: Naercio Menezes-Filho, FEA-USP and Ibmec/SP
EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF JOB TRAINING PROGRAMS IN LATIN AMERICA: EVIDENCE FROM IDB FUNDED OPERATIONS G. David Rosas Shady, Inter-American Development Bank Co-Author: Pablo Ibarraran, Inter-American Development Bank
101 SUNDAY 23 NOVEMBER 2008
10:15 - 11:45 WAGES AND INEQUALITY (LACEA) Room 401 Chairperson: Miguel Foguel, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada
PARTICIPATION IN THE BRAZILIAN LABOR MARKET AND INCOME DETERMINANTS: A HECKMAN’S PROCEDURE ANALYSIS Rosa Fontes, Universidade Federal de Viçosa Co-Authors: Gilnei C. Santos, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE VIÇOSA, João Eustáquio Lima, Universidade Federal de Viçosa and Patrícia Melo Abrita Bastos, Universidade Federal de Viçosa
PUBLIC-PRIVATE WAGE GAP AND ENDOGENOUS SECTOR CHOICE IN BRAZIL Ana Luiza Barbosa, EPGE/FGV and IPEA Co-Author: FERNANDO HOLANDA BARBOSA FILHO, IBRE / FGV
FOREIGN CAPITAL AND GENDER DIFFERENCES IN PROMOTIONS: EVIDENCE FROM THE BRAZILIAN TRANSFORMATION INDUSTRY Miguel Foguel, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada Co-Authors: Danilo Coelho, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada and Marcelo Fernandes, Queen Mary, University of London
10:15 - 11:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LAMES - Econometrics and Empirical Economics
10:15 - 11:45 FINANCE VI (LAMES EEE) Room 132 Chairperson: Antonio Gledson de Carvalho, FGV-SP
DO INVESTORS MAKE SMART CHOICES WHEN SELECTING STOCKS? EVIDENCE FROM A NEW NORWEGIAN DATASET Knut Nygaard, Norwegian School of Economics
COUNTRY RISK RATINGS AND FINANCIAL CRISES 1995 – 2001: A SURVIVAL ANALYSIS Monica Roa, National Planning Department Co-Authors: Leonardo Bonilla, Central Bank and Andres Felipe Garcia, Universidad del Rosario
DETERMINANTS OF STABILIZATION IN INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERINGS Antonio Gledson de Carvalho, FGV-SP and Douglas Pinheiro, FGVSP Co-Author: Douglas Pinheiro, FGVSP
10:15 - 11:45 FIRM BEHAVIOR (LAMES EEE) Room 224 Chairperson: Claudio Lucinda, Fundação Getúlio Vargas
PATENTS IN NEW TECHNOLOGIES Luis Ferreira, Universidade do Minho
MARK UP BEHAVIOR IN THE BRAZILIAN INDUSTRY IN THE 1990S: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE Luiz Fernando Cerqueira, Federal Fluminense University Co-Author: Carmem Feijo, Federal Fluminense University
QUANTIFYING THE BENEFITS OF NEW GOODS: FLEX-FUEL AUTOMOBILES. Claudio Lucinda, Fundação Getúlio Vargas
102 SUNDAY 23 NOVEMBER 2008
10:15 - 11:45 FINANCE V (LAMES EEE) Room 333 Chairperson: Solange Gouvea, Central Bank of Brazil
THE CAPM AND FAMA-FRENCH MODELS IN BRAZIL Rodrigo Bueno, FGV - EAESP Co-Author: Fernando Chague, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
PREDICTING RECESSSIONS IN BRAZIL Igor Morais, UNISINOS Co-Author: Chauvet Marcelle, University of Califronia
REAL INTEREST RATES, BUDGET DEFICITS AND THE PUBLIC DEBT IN EMERGING MARKETS Marcelo Mello, Ibmec-RJ and Rafael Scherre, Agência Nacional de Aviação Civil
PRICE RIGIDITY IN BRAZIL: EVIDENCE FROM CPI MICRO DATA. Solange Gouvea, Central Bank of Brazil
10:15 - 11:45 SPONSORED AND CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS LAMES - Theoretical and Applied Economics
10:15 - 11:45 MONEY, CREDIT AND WELLFARE Room Auditorium 1 (LAMES TAE) Chairperson: Rubens Penha Cysne, Fundação Getulio Vargas
NOMINAL UNIQUENESS AND MONEY NON-NEUTRALITY IN THE LIMIT-PRICE EXCHANGE PROCESS Dimitrios Tsomocos, SAID BUSINESS SCHOOL, OXFORD UNIVERSITY Co-Author: Gael Giraud, CNRS, Paris School of Economics
A LONG-RUN ANALYSIS OF THE MONEY DEMAND IN ARGENTINA: 1900-2006 Matteo Mogliani, Paris School of Economics Co-Authors: Giovanni Urga, Cass Business School, London (UK) and Bergamo University, (Italy) and Carlos Winograd, Paris School of Economics (PSE) and University of Paris-Evry (EPEE)
THE WEALTH EFFECT AND MONETARY POLICY IN BRAZIL Joaquim Andrade, UnB Co-Author: Manoel Pires, IPEA
AN ORDERING OF MEASURES OF THE WELFARE COST OF INFLATION IN ECONOMIES WITH INTEREST-BEARING DEPOSITS Rubens Penha Cysne, Fundação Getulio Vargas Co-Author: David Turchick, Fundação Getulio Vargas
103 SUNDAY 23 NOVEMBER 2008
10:15 - 11:45 LABOR AND WELFARE ECONOMICS Room Auditorium 3 (LAMES TAE) Chairperson: Marcelo Cortes Neri, Fundação Getúlio Vargas
EFFICIENCY OF TWO SIDED INVESTMENTS IN AN EQUILIBRIUM UNEMPLOYMENT FRAMEWORK Lucas Navarro, Universidad Alberto Hurtado, Chile
TOUGHER EDUCATIONAL EXAM LEADING TO WORSE SELECTION Eduardo Andrade, Ibmec Sao Paulo Co-Author: Luciano De Castro, University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign
MICRO-FOUNDATIONS OF THE SOCIAL CHANGE Elvio Accinelli, Facultad ded Economia UASLP Co-Author: Leobardo Plata, Facultad de Ecoomia UASLP
A PERCEIVED HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX Marcelo Cortes Neri, Fundação Getúlio Vargas
10:15 - 11:45 PREFERENCES AND DECISION-MAKING Room 329 II (LAMES TAE) Chairperson: David Schroeder, EDHEC Business School
BAYESIAN-NASH EQUILIBRIA IN THEORY OF PLANNED BEHAVIOR Helena Ferreira, University of Minho Co-Authors: Leandro Almeida, University of Minho, Jose Cruz, University of Minho and Alberto Pinto, Universidade do Minho
FROM PROBABILITY MEASURES TO CONVEX CAPACITIES AND VICE-VERSA Paulo C. Coimbra, FUCAPE Business School and Graduate School of Economics at Getulio Vargas Foundation
INVESTMENT UNDER AMBIGUITY WITH THE BEST AND WORST IN MIND David Schroeder, EDHEC Business School
10:15 - 11:45 ENERGY INDUSTRY (LAMES TAE) Room 345 Chairperson: Matti Liski, Helsinki School of Economics
IM-PERFECTLY COMPETITIVE CONTRACT MARKETS FOR ELECTRICITY Federica Manca, European Commission and AGCM Co-Authors: Monica BONACINA, IEFE Università Bocconi MIlano and ANNA CRETI, IEFE Univerità Bocconi Milano
FORWARD CONTRACTS AND ALLOCATION OF WATER RESOURCES IN DEREGULATED HYDROTHERMAL ELECTRICITY MARKETS Luiz Fernando Rangel, Ipea
PRODUCTIVITY, ENERGY PRICES, AND THE GREAT MODERATION: A NEW LINK Pedro Silos, Federal Reserve Bank Atlanta Co-Authors: Rajeev Dhawan, Georgia State University and Karsten Jeske, Mellon Capital Management
104 SUNDAY 23 NOVEMBER 2008
AN EMPIRICAL MODEL OF IMPERFECT DYNAMIC COMPETITION AND APPLICATION TO HYDROELECTRICITY STORAGE Matti Liski, Helsinki School of Economics Co-Author: Olli Kauppi, Helsinki School of Economics
10:15 - 11:45 GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM III (LAMES TAE) Room 347 Chairperson: José Fajardo, IBMEC Business School
COMPUTING GENERAL ECONOMIC EQUILIBRIUM WITH INCOMPLETE MARKETS, COLLATERAL AND DEFAULT PENALTIES Susan Schommer, IMPA - Instituto Nacional de Matematica Pura e Aplicada
KNIGHTIAN ASSET BUBBLES IN GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM Rodrigo Novinski, IMPA Co-Authors: Aloisio Araujo, FGV/EPGE and IMPA and Mario Pascoa, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa
EXISTENCE OF EQUILIBRIUM IN INFINITE HORIZON ECONOMIES WITH ENDOGENOUS UNCERTAINTY Rodrigo Raad, FGV-RIO
BEHAVIORAL ARBITRAGE WITH COLLATERAL AND UNCERTAIN DELIVERIES José Fajardo, IBMEC Business School Co-Author: Ana Lacerda, Banco de Portugal
12:00 - 13:30 CLOSING PANEL
12:00 - 13:30 CURRENT CRISIS: WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED SO Room Auditorium 2 FAR? (LACEA-LAMES) Chairperson: Aloisio Araujo, FGV/EPGE and IMPA
PANELIST 1 Charles Calomiris, Columbia University
PANELIST 2 Jean-Charles Rochet, Toulouse School of Economics
PANELIST 3 Christopher A. Sims, Princeton University
PANELIST 4 Patrick Honohan, International Financial Economics and Development Trinity College Dublin
TBC Henrique Meirelles, President, Central Bank of Brazil
105 Index of Presenters
Barelli, 40 Barenboim, 45, 46, 82 A Barrera-Osorio, 56 Accinelli, 104 Barron, 44 Acosta, 65, 66, 72 Barros, 46 Afonso, 48 Basaluzzo, 28 Agosín, 53 Bastos, 101 Aguiar de Oliveira, 45 Battaglini, 30 Ahumada, 90 Bayer, 38, 39, 91 Aisen, 22 Behrman, 41, 47, 51, 54 Aizenmann, 19 Belloni, 39 Albornoz, 37, 79 Benavides, 96 Albuquerque, 58 Benigno, 80 Albuquerque Tavares, 28 Bergantiños, 69 Alcazar, 72 Berlinski, 82 Alfaro, 61 Berriel, 82 Alfonso, 45 Berry, 62 Alichi, 34 Binder, 45, 83 Allouch, 69 Binelli, 44 Alvarez, F, 32 Blundell, 86 Alvarez, R, 20, 57, 84 Blyde, 65 Alzua, 18, 87 Bobba, 100 Amaral, 44, 49 Bommier, 30 Anchorena, 94 Bonomo, 60 Anders, 67 Bontems, 70 Andrade, E, 89, 104 Bos, 31 Andrade, J, 93, 103 Bourguignon, 32, 65 Andrea, 100 Branisa Caballero, 81 Antràs, 76 Brasil, 68 Aquino, 100 Braun, 25, 35 Aragon, 33, 101 Bravo, 44, 57, 80 Araújo, 19, 71 Bredemeier, 69 Araujo, C, 19, 78 Brei, 36, 95 Araujo, J, 80 Bresson, 97 Arbatli, 58 Bretan, 98 Arbex, 45 Brito, 93 Arce, 50, 55 Brollo, 68 Arena, 38 Bucacos, 95 Arias, 47 Buchmann, 89 Armstrong, 42 Bueno, 93, 96, 103 Arrigoni Coelho, 37 Buera, 61, 62, 74 Arteche, 83, 84 Bugarin, M, 30, 89, 101 Askildsen, 33 Bursztyn, 82 Assunção, 33, 51, 66, 67, 99 Busso, 38, 55, 56 Attanasio, 35, 44, 51, 59, 60 Bussolo, 65, 81 Avelino, 96 Bustos, 20 Avellan, 94, 95 Avellar, 94 C Avila, 67 Azevedo, 46, 55 Calani, 79, 80 Calavrezo, 91 Calderon, C, 22, 80 B Calderon, M, 47 Baland, 32 Calderón-Madrid, 28 Baldini, 99 Calomiris, 52, 60, 105 Balmaceda, 70 Calonico, 26 Banerjee, 42, 51 Calvo, 34, 41, 64 Barberia, 55 Camacho, 16 Barbosa, A, 102 Camargo, 69 Barbosa, K, 23 Campante, 24, 46, 54 Barcellos, 67 Campos de Xavier Pinto, 38 Bardey, 92 Canuto, 53, 78 157 Caponi, 99 de Carvalho, 45 Caporale, 57, 101 De Gregorio, 41 Caputo, 83 De Hoyos, 81 Carbajal, 59 de la Cruz Gallegos, 38 Cárdenas, 16, 25, 44, 52, 53, 62, 78 de la Torre, 43, 53, 78 Cardenas, V, 79 De Mello, 37, 62, 83, 101 Carluccio, 79, 98 de Paula, 92 Carmit, 39 Del Carpio, 66 Carranza, 48 Del Negro, 82 Carrasco, 62, 69, 70 Demombynes, 81, 91 Carrasco Gutierrez, 97 Dev, 31 Carrillo, J, 90 Di Maro, 21, 59 Carrillo, P, 55 Di Tella, 35, 55 Carvalho Pereda, 29 Díaz, 79 Carvalho, A, 102 Diaz-Bonilla, 81 Carvalho, F, 80 DiCecio, 21, 39 Carvalho, J, 34 Didier, 19 Carvalho, L, 21 Dills, 73 Casas, 49 Divino, 48, 96, 97 Cassilatti Furlani, 95 Dix Carneiro, 87 Castellanos, 25 Doko Tchatoka, 29 Castilla, 53 Domínguez, 93, 94 Castillo, 86 Dong, 30 Catao, 34, 61, 74, 78 Dooley, 60 Cattaneo, 48 Dube, 88 Cavallo, 67, 79, 89, 94 Dubois, 76 Celen, 39 Dubra, 39, 40 Cerqueira, 102 Dupire, 42 Chamon, 61, 83, 89 Dussaillant, 88 Chang, 38 Chavez, 47 Chein, 33, 44, 67, 99 E Chen, 49, 79 Eckwert, 29 Cheremukhin, 84 Edlund, 63 Chiapa, 59 Ehlers, 29 Chimeli, 58 Emerson, 66 Chioda, 90 Engel, 53, 67, 73, 77 Chiodi, 100 Espino, 50 Cinquetti, 66 Espinoza, 56 Clemens, 21 Esquivel, 73 Coimbra, 104 Esteban, 57 Cole, 32 Estevadeordal, 44 Contessi, 27 Esteves, 85, 95 Corbacho, 25 Corcos, 79 Corseuil, 28 F Costa Lima, 23, 36 Costa, A, 93 Faguet, 33 Costa, J, 26 Fajardo, 105 Coutinho, 16 Fajardo Molinares, 83 Coviello, 82, 83 Fajnzylber, E, 91 Cowan, 19, 25 Fajnzylber, P, 33 Crespo, 47 Farias, 28, 38 Cruces, 18, 72, 73 Fava, 26 Crutzen, 23 Feler, 54 Cubas, 91 Fernandez, A, 23, 88 Cunha, 40 Fernandez, R, 63, 88 Cusolito, 20 Ferraz, 27, 52 Cysne, 22, 103 Ferreira, F, 60, 61, 96 Ferreira, H, 104 Ferreira, L, 102 D Ferreira, P, 61 Figueroa, 59 Dabús, 91 Filipovich, 97 Dagher, 47 Fischer, 67, 77 Dal Bó, 52, 55 Fiszbein, 61 D'Amato, 96 Fiuza, 95 Daude, 23, 67 158 Flores-Lagunes, 29 Foguel, 102 H Fontenla, 56, 70 Haefke, 84 Fontes, 102 Haga, 54 Forteza, 86 Haile, 62 Fossati, 48 Hanan, 67 Fostel, 50, 74 Hausmann, 43, 53, 64 Fraga, 42, 64 Heinesen, 38 Freguglia, 99, 101 Helmers, 94 Fuentes, O, 81 Helpman, 85 Fuentes, R, 22 Hernandez Baez, 31 Funchal, 69 Hernani-Limarino, 72 Herrera, H, 31 Herrera, S, 86 G Hevia, 56 Gabrielli, 16 Higuera, 66 Galiani, 35, 37, 75, 82 Hofstetter, 54 Galindo, 20 Holly, 33 Gallegati, 68 Holm, 50 Gamerman, 58 Honohan, 105 Gandelman, 25, 100 Hopenhayn, 51 Garcia, 36, 37, 75, 78 Horowitz, 70 Garcia Herrero, 44 Hounkannounon, 39 Garcia-Verdu, 81 Humala, 95 Garlappi, 30 Gasparini, 62, 73 Gavin, 52 I Geanakoplos, 50, 52, 77 Iacovone, 79 Gelos, 88 Ibáñez, 25 Genicot, 53 Ioannidis, 49 Gertler, 32 Irasema, 81, 82 Ghironi, 74 Iskrev, 58 Ghosh, 40 Ismael, 87 Giannone, 61 Iwata, 92 Gignoux, 21 Gilles, 88, 89 Giugale, 25 J Giuliano, 48, 57 Jacho-Chávez, 48, 67 Goldfajn, 34, 78 Jaimovich, 79 Golinski, 83 Jaimovitch, 60 Golosov, 62 Jalil, 54, 89, 90 Gomberg, 50 Janiak, 40 Gomes, 86 Janot, 36 Gomes da Silva, 82, 90 Jaramillo, 53 Gomes Neto, 72 Ji, 37, 89 Gomez-Rua, 31, 69 Jofré, 31, 97 Goni Pacchioni, 91 Jorge, 50 Gonzales Castillo, 56, 57 Juarez, L, 56 Gonzalez, 28, 34 Juarez, R, 69 Gonzalez-Eiras, 92 Juessen, 39, 69, 91 Gordon, 97 Juvenal, 57 Gottlieb, 59 Gouvea, 98, 103 Gozlan, 24 K Gradín, 25, 26 Gradojevic, 83 Kalemli-Ozcan, 74 Granda, 19 Kamil, 25, 35 Grandes, 75, 89 Kaminsky, 74 Grazzi, 21, 22 Kandil, 20 Gruben, 56 Kaplan, 21 Guadalupe, 57 Karoll, 83 Guimarães, 74 Kassouf, 38 Gurgand, 91 Kasy, 90 Guscina, 26 Kawai, 44 Gutierrez Fernandez, 20 Kazumori, 31 Gwenael, 59 Khamis, 56 Kiguel, 78 159 Kihlstrom, 42 Maldonado, 29, 30 King, 31 Manca, 104 Kiyotaki, 76 Mandel, 57 Klein, 68 Mandelman, 40, 66, 73 Kocherlakota, 51 Manela, 84 Kohlscheen, 40 Manso, 30 Kourogenis, 96 Manuelli, 61 Krell, 68 Manzi, 43 Kremer, 32 Maral, 71 Kryvtsov, 49, 60 Marçal, 27, 83 Ku, 73 Marinacci, 77 Kubler, 32, 45 Marislei, 58 Kubota, 80, 94 Martimort, 52 Kuhn, 17 Martinelli, 22 Kumhof, 34 Martinez, A, 86 Martinez, G, 88 Martinez-Chombo, 38 L Martins-da-Rocha, 32, 50, 87 Lamdany, 56 Maskin, 92 Lara Resende, 81 Mattos, 35, 48, 55 Lasak, 58 Mayer, 40 Laszlo, 46 Mayoral, 90 Lazear, 17, 18 Mazzeo, 76 Leahy, 76 McAfee, 42, 85 Leal, 25 McFadden, 63 Lederman, 17 McNelis, 40, 88 Lee, 29 Medina, 72 Leme, 35, 82, 90 Medrano, 80 LEMOS, 44, 99 Meghir, 32 Lepore, 71 Mejia, 55 Levy, 16, 78 Melendez, 87 Ley, 34, 48, 49 Meléndez, 25 Lim, 40 Mello, 103 Lin, 33, 42 Melo, L, 97 Linhares, 22 Melo, M, 36 Liski, 87, 104, 105 Meloni, 55 Lizarazo, 30, 31 Mendicino, 84 Loayza, 54, 73 Menezes-Filho, 28, 43, 62, 76, 94, 99, 100, 101 Lobato, 42, 57, 58 Mesa, 37 Loeper, 36, 70 Mesa Téllez, 21 Lopez Boo, 26, 80 Minella, 80, 98 Lopez Cordova, 19, 20, 72 Miranda, 37, 80 Lopez-Acevedo, 66 Miravete, 85 López-Calva, 24, 53, 79 Mishra, 48 Lora, 41, 43, 62 Mizala, 94 Loria, 98 Mobarak, 33, 59 Loureiro, 98 Mogliani, 35, 103 Love, 45 Moita, 27, 76, 98 Lucinda, 37, 102 Molina, 65 Lueck, 74 Monge-Naranjo, 62, 72 Lunardelli, 88 Monsalvo, 90 Montero, 87 Monticini, 82 M Montoro, 54 Mora, 39 Machado, A, 26 Morais, 103 Machado, F, 54 Moran, 88 Machicado Salas, 21 Moreira, A, 84, 97, 100 Machina, 77 Moreira, M, 42, 65 Macours, 46, 66 Morita, 96 Madeira, 47 Moroni, 97 Madrigal, 26 Morsy, 56 Maffioli, 46, 47 Moura, 36 Maggi, 75 Mueller, 36, 55 Magnusson, K, 65 Muñoz, 46 Magnusson, L, 90 Murray, 41 Maia, 95 Musalem, 78 160 Myerson, 51 Pouzo, 18 Powell, A, 52, 89 Powell, J, 42 N Punzi, 66 Nakane, 37, 99 Nalewaik, 90 Q Narita, 100 Navarro, 95, 104 Queijo von Heideken, 99 Nechio, 92 Quesada, 23, 24 Neri, 34, 89, 93, 104 Quintanilla, 56 Neut, 26 Nicolini, 30, 31 Novinski, 105 R Nupia, 57 Raad, 105 Nygaard, 102 Rabin, 63 Raddatz, 26, 27, 35, 67 O Ramos, 78 Rangel, 104 Olivera, 86, 87 Rappoport, 91, 92 Olmstead, 74 Rau, 68, 80 Olsen, 71 Rault, 96, 100, 101 Ömer, 41 Recuero Virto, 94 Onorato, 101 Rehme, 28, 71 Ordonez, 47, 70 Reis, E, 34 Oreggia, 18 Reis, M, 100 Ornelas, 20, 76, 79 Reisen, 39, 83 Orrillo, 48 Repullo, 18, 70 Otero, 47, 48 Resende, 71, 98 Ozgur, 31 Reshef, 17 Restout, 70 Restrepo, 89 P Restuccia, 61 Pachon, 27 Rezende, M, 94 Paes de Barros, 18, 25, 73 Rezende, R, 27, 96 Pages, 26, 78 Riascos, 85 Pakes, 51 Ribeiro, 39, 89 Pande, 51, 52 Ridder, 77 Panizza, 25, 44, 61 Rigobon, 86, 89 Paravisini, 49 Rigolini, 54 Paredes, 35, 99 Rios, 46 Parreiras, 40 Ripani, 18 Pasquini, 67, 89 Roa, 21, 102 Paunov, 57 Robalino, D, 81 Peixoto, 46 Robalino, J, 72 Pena, 21, 28 Robalo Marques, 49 Peralta-Alva, 71, 87 Robin, 32 Pereira da Silva, 65 Rocha, B, 37, 89, 98, 99 Pereira, C, 27, 36 Rocha, K, 100 Pereira, T, 22 Rocha, R, 31, 92 Pereira, V, 66 Roche, 84, 85 Perini de Castro, 58 Rochet, 18, 105 Perrigne, 77, 97, 98 Rodrigues, 23 Perrone, 87 Rodriguez, 75 Perry, 44, 53, 60 Rodríguez, 99 Persson, 16, 64 Rodríguez Castelán, 55 Petrassi, 85 Rodriguez-Chamussy, 21 Pietro, 84 Rodriguez-Clare, 75 Pincheira, 90 Romaniuk, 86 Pineda, 67 Romero, 29 Pinheiro, 102 Rosas Shady, 101 Pinho de Morais, 98 Rossi, 55 Pinto, 36, 104 Rowat, 69 Ponce, 94 Rubio-Codina, 35 Ponta, 71, 95 Ruiz-de-Gamboa, 95 Poole, 24, 28 Rumi, 68 Portugal, 77, 82, 95 Russell, 41 161 Teixeira, 98 S Tekin, 84 Saavedra, 24, 55, 73 Teles, 22 Sacramento dos Reis Monte, 34 Tellez, 22 Salant, 77 Terra, 75, 93, 101 Sampaio De Sousa, 18 Terviö, 23 Sand, 75 Tessada, 24 Sandleris, 61, 88 Tetenov, 29 Sanguinetti, 33, 53, 67, 72 Toldra Simats, 50, 67 Sannikov, 62 Tominey, 66 Santos, C, 52, 84 Tommasi, 44, 75 Santos, M, 26, 54 Torós, 41 Santos, R, 19, 35, 98 Torres, 40, 41 Sara, 45 Tourinho, 68 Sarquis, 23, 36 Tovar, 19, 37 Scartascini, 75 Trachter, 29 Schady, 61, 66, 94 Trebesch, 26 Schargrodsky, 35, 54, 55 Triossi Verondini, 24, 81 Scheinkman, 52 Troncoso, 47 Scherre, 103 Tsomocos, 103 Schmedders, 32 Schmidt, 40 Schmukler, 74 U Schommer, 45, 105 Ueberfeldt, 30 Schroeder, 104 Useche, 46 Schubert, 71 Schumacher, 70 Schwartzman, 19 V Scott, 73 Vacha, 69 Sebastian, 80 Vakis, 46, 66 Segal, 52 Valle Moura, 19, 49 Seker, 80, 81 Vallejo, 71 Sepulveda, 66 Valls Pereira, 27, 58, 63 Sequeira, 68 Van Praag, 41, 72 Sevilla, 80 Vardy, 24 Sgherri, 88 Varga, 58 Shin, 61 Vargas, 88 Shousha, 27 Vargas Martínez, 37 Silos, 27, 104 Vasconcellos, 94 Silva, 23 Vasconcelos, 101 Silva Filho, 96 Vasquez-Ruiz, 93 Simonsen Leal, 16, 17 Ventosa-Santaularia, 20 Sims, 63, 105 Ventura, 28, 29 Sinclair-Desgagné, 98 Veras Corrêa, 101 Singh, 45 Verdier, 32, 36, 76 Skoufias, 34, 35 Viale, 58 Skoulakis, 30, 49, 50 Viana de Carvalho, 60, 74, 92 Skreta, 49 Vieira Silva, 97 Soares, 73, 76, 92 Villalobos Barria, 99 Sola, 86 Villarreal, 47, 69 Soloaga, 53 Villatoro, 24 Sosa, 36 Vuong, 77 Soto, 28 Souza, 33, 35, 36, 37, 58 Spadaro, 71 W Spence, 17 Spilimbergo, 48, 57 Wagner, 87 Steigerwald, 59 Waisman, 99 Stein, 44, 47 Waugh, 17 Streb, 23, 25 Weber, 70 Strömberg, 52 Werlang, 60, 94 Weyl, 27, 85 White, 71 T Wright, 72 Takats, 18 Talvi, 44, 64 Tatum, 46 162 Zane, 75 Y Zhao, 24 Yared, 30 Ziebarth, 22, 92 Yeyati, 60 Zikes, 96 Zilberman, 18 Zissimos, B, 20 Z Zissimos, I, 20 Zaluar, 73 Zlate, 37, 40 Zoghbi, 100
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