INDEX Welcome to Rio......................................................................................................................3 Synthetic Program ..................................................................................................................5 Sponsors - LACEA.................................................................................................................6 Sponsors - LAMES.................................................................................................................7 Chairs......................................................................................................................................8 LACEA Program Committee .................................................................................................9 LAMES Scientific Committee..............................................................................................11 Local Committee ..................................................................................................................12 General Information .............................................................................................................13 COMPLETE PROGRAM ....................................................................................................16 THURSDAY 20 November 2008…………………………………………………….. 16 FRIDAY 21 November 2008 ………………………………………………………… 43 SATURDAY 22 November 2008 ……………………………………………………. 65 SUNDAY 23 November 2008……………………………………………………....... 93 Index of Presenters .............................................................................................................106 Welcome to Rio! After the successfull Mexico City and Bogotá Meetings, this year we’ll have also a jointed LACEA and LAMES that will continue to be realized at the same location with a unified registration. We are happy to invite you to the Opening Ceremony to take place on November 20, at 8:15 a.m. in IMPA. We also invite all participants and accompanying people for the cocktail at 8:00 pm, in the main hall of IMPA in the same day. As soon as you arrive, we ask you please to confirm your registration (check in) at the entrance hall and take the material of the meeting. The conference is providing buses to transport participants from some chosen hotels to IMPA and back every conference’s days (November, 20-23). Please see the timetable in this program. CONFERENCE DINNER: The conference dinner will take place on November 21st (Friday) at 8:30 pm, in MAM - Museum of Modern Art - which is located in a beautiful site with panoramic view of the Guanabara Bay. We made special efforts in choosing the food that should have the Brazilian taste. Also there will be “chorinho” which is the Brazilian form of jazz, and some other Brazilian music. Everybody registered in the conference is welcome. We want to thank all who have donated time and energy resource for this Congress. We also want to thank the members of the Program Committee and the Local Organizer José Heleno Faro. We especially want to thank the co-chairs of LAMES Humberto Moreira e Sergio Firpo and the co-chair of LACEA Luis Braido. Thank you too to Marcia Waleria of FGV and Suely Lima and Pedro Faro of IMPA who did magnificent secretarial job. Thank you for coming! We are very happy to have you here! Aloísio Araujo, chair of LACEA-LAMES 2008. 3 Synthetic Program Thursday 20 November Friday 21 November Saturday 22 November Sunday 23 November 08:00 - 08:15 Registration 08:15 - 08:30 08:30 - 08:45 Open Ceremony Sponsored and 08:45 - 09:30 Contributed Sessions Contributed Sessions 09:30 - 09:45 Sponsored and 09:45 - 10:00 Coffee Break Invited Lectures Contributed Sessions 10:00 - 10:15 Coffee Break 10:15 - 10:30 Invited Lectures 10:30 - 10:45 Coffee Break Coffee Break Sponsored and 10:45 - 11:00 Contributed Sessions 11:00 - 11:30 Sponsored and Invited and Sponsored 11:30 - 11:45 Contributed Sessions Lectures Invited Lectures and 11:45 - 12:00 Sessions 12:00 - 12:15 12:15 - 12:30 12:30 - 12:45 Lunch Closing Panel Lunch 12:45 - 13:00 Lunch 13:00 - 13:15 13:15 - 13:45 Invited Lectures and Sessions 13:45 - 14:00 Sponsored and Sponsored and 14:00 - 14:30 Contributed Sessions Contributed Sessions 14:30 - 14:45 Sponsored and Contributed Sessions 14:45 - 16:00 Invited Lectures and Invited and Sponsored 16:00 - 16:15 Sessions Lectures Coffee Break 16:15 - 16:30 Coffee Break Coffee Break Invited Lectures 16:30 - 17:15 Sponsored and Keynote Lecture 17:15 - 17:30 Contributed Sessions 17:30 - 18:00 Sponsored and Invited Lectures 18:00 - 18:30 Contributed Sessions 18:30 - 18:45 Plenary Session and 18:45 - 19:00 Plenary and Invited Presidential Address 19:00 - 19:30 Sessions Keynote Lecture 19:30 - 19:45 19:45 - 20:00 20:00 - 20:30* Cocktail Conference Dinner* 5 LACEA sponsor support BIS Banco Interamericano de Desenvolvimento The World Bank LAMES sponsor support Chairs Aloísio Araujo Chair of LACEA/LAMES, FGV/EPGE and IMPA Humberto Moreira Co-Chair of LAMES, FGV/EPGE Luis Braido Co-Chair of LACEA, FGV/EPGE Sergio Firpo Co-Chair of LAMES, FGV/EESP José Heleno Faro Local Chairman, IMPA 8 LACEA Program Committee NAME AFFILIATION Aloisio Araujo Chair, FGV/EPGE and IMPA Luis Braido Co-Chair, FGV/EPGE Mônica Viegas Andrade Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais Juliano J. Assunção Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-Rio Orazio Attanasio University College London Ricardo R.G. Avelino Universidade de São Paulo Ricardo Paes de Barros IPEA, Rio Francisco Buera Northwestern University Carlos Vianna de Carvalho Federal Reserve Bank, New York Tiago Cavalcanti University of Cambridge Rodrigo Cerda Pontifica Universidad Católica de Chile Pierre-André Chiappori Columbia University Carlos E. da Costa Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGE Pierre Dubois Université Toulouse Eduardo Engel Yale University Flávia L. Chein Feres Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais Daniel Ferreira London School of Economics Claudio Ferraz IPEA, Rio Francisco Ferreira World Bank Pedro C. Ferreira Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGE Paul J. Gertler University of California, Berkeley Maitreesh Ghatak London School of Economics Delfim Gomes-Neto Universidade de Vigo Gustavo Gonzaga Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-Rio Martin Grandes Center for Financial Stability and American University of Paris Bernardo Guimaraes London School of Economics Graciela Kaminsky George Washington University Sandra V. Lizarazo ITAM, México Eduardo A. Lora Inter-American Development Bank Dean Lueck University of Arizona Inter-American Development Bank Nora C. Lustig and George Washington University Gabriel A. Madeira Universidade de São Paulo IBMEC Business School, São Paulo Naercio A. Menezes-Filho and Universidade de São Paulo Marcelo C. Neri Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/IBRE Emanuel Ornellas London School of Economics Leonardo Rezende Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-Rio Mauro Rodrigues Jr Universidade de São Paulo Andrés Rodriguez-Clare Pennsylvania State University José L. Rossi Jr IBMEC Business School, São Paulo Esteban Rossi-Hansberg Princeton University 9 Jaime Saavedra World Bank Pablo J. Sanguinetti CAF and Universidad Torcuato Di Tella Rodrigo R. Soares Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-Rio André Portela Souza Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EESP Arilton Teixeira FUCAPE, Vitoria André Urani Instituto de Estudos do Trabalho e Sociedade Fernando A. Veloso IBMEC Business School, Rio Thierry A. Verdier Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques 10 LAMES Scientific Committee NAME AFFILIATION Aloisio Araujo Chair, FGV/EPGE and IMPA Humberto Moreira Co-Chair, FGV/EPGE Sergio Firpo Co-Chair, FGV/EESP Elvio Accinelli Universidad Autônoma de San Luis Potosi Caio de Almeida Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGE Heitor Almeida University of Illinois Paulo Barelli University of Rochester Alexandre Belloni Duke University Mauricio Bugarin IBMEC Business School, São Paulo Bernardo Blum University of Toronto Eugenio Bobenrieth Universidad de Concepción Marco Bonomo Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGE Vinicius Carrasco Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-Rio Andres Carvajal University of Warwick Ricardo Cavalcanti Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGE Luciano Costa University oif Illinois Paulo Coutinho Universidade de Brasília Francisco Cribari-Neto Universidade Federal de Pernambuco Flavio Cunha University of Pennsylvania Juan Dubra Universidad de Montevideo Emilio Espino Universidad Torcuato di Tella Eduardo Faingold Yale University José Fajardo IBMEC Business School, Rio Marcelo Fernandes Queen Mary University of London Raquel Fernandez New York University Armando Gomes Washington University Klaus Schmidt Hebbel Banco Central do Chile Hugo Hopenhayn University of California, Los Angeles Maria Carolina da Silva Leme Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EESP Luiz Renato Lima Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGE Ignacio Lobato ITAM, México Hedibert Freitas Lopes University of Chicago Wilfredo Maldonado Universidade Católica de Brasília Gustavo Manso Massachusetts Institute of Technology Alberto Martin Universitat Pompeu Fabra Cesar Martinelli ITAM, México Juan-Pablo Torres-Martinez Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-Rio V.Filipe Martins-da-Rocha Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGE Enlinson Henrique Carvalho de Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EESP Mattos Marcelo Medeiros Pontifícia Universidade Católica, PUC-Rio Paulo Klinger Monteiro Fundação Getulio Vargas, FGV/EPGE 11 Juan Pablo Montero Pontifica Universidad Católica de Chile Pablo Andrés Neumeyer Universidad Torcuato Di Tella Juan Pablo Nicolini Universidad Torcuato Di Tella Walter Novaes Pontifícia Universidade