THE SED 2007 ANNUAL MEETING IS ORGANIZED BY

CERGE-EI

together with

THE CZECH NATIONAL BANK

and

THE CZECH ECONOMIC SOCIETY

THE SED GRATEFULLY ACKNOWLEDGES THE SPONSORSHIP OF

CSOB

CEZ

METROSTAV

The Conference is held under the auspices of Mr. Pavel Bem, Mayor of Prague. PROGRAM CHAIRS Ricardo Lagos (New York University) Noah Williams (Princeton University)

SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE George Alessandria (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) Michelle Alexopoulos (University of Toronto) Manuel Amador (Stanford University) George-Marios Angeletos (MIT) Cristina Arellano (University of Minnesota) Francisco Buera (Northwestern University) Ariel Burstein (UCLA) Ricardo de O. Cavalcanti (EPGE) James Costain (Bank of Spain) Carlos Eugenio da Costa (EPGE) Chris Edmond (New York University) Jan Eeckhout (University of Pennsylvania) Liran Einav (Stanford University) Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania) Mikhail Golosov (MIT) Gita Gopinath (Harvard University) Nezih Guner (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) Christian Hellwig (UCLA) Johannes Horner (Northwestern University) Nir Jaimovich (Stanford University) Dirk Krueger (University of Pennsylvania) Rasmus Lentz (University of Wisconsin-Madison) Igor Livshits (University of Western Ontario) Maurizio Mazzocco (UCLA) Guido Menzio (University of Pennsylvania) Eva Nagypal (Northwestern University) Tomoyuki Nakajima (Kyoto University) Monika Piazzesi (University of Chicago) Luigi Pistaferri (Stanford University) Ronny Razin (LSE) Stephen Redding (LSE) Diego Restuccia (University of Toronto) Yuliy Sannikov (University of California, Berkeley) Martin Schneider (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) Yongseok Shin (University of Wisconsin-Madison) Carlos Urrutia (ITAM) Gustavo Ventura (University of Iowa) Amir Yaron (University of Pennsylvania) WELCOME TO THE 2007 ANNUAL MEETING OF THE SOCIETY FOR ECONOMIC DYNAMICS!

We have a very exciting program for this years meeting. There are 360 papers in 90 sessions covering all areas of economics, and plenary addresses from Dilip Abreu (Princeton), Robert Shimer (Chicago) and Kenneth Wolpin (Penn). We had a record 1005 submissions and because of space limitations a number of very fine papers did not make it on the program.

Under the guidance of our past presidents Tom Sargent, Ed Prescott, Dale Mortensen, Tom Cooley, and Boyan Jovanovic all of you have helped our meetings grow from the first one (Minneapolis, June 1990) into the large and intellectually significant affair they are today.

Putting together a meeting on such a large scale involves a lot of work. So, thanks go to the 40-member pro- gram committee who selected the papers in a timely manner. Our organization was greatly aided by the use of John Rust’s Conference-Maker software. A particular thanks go to our local organizers, Radim Bohacek and Michal Kejak, who pulled this all together. Our officers, Ellen McGrattan (Treasurer) and Christian Zimmer- mann (Secretary) also played a key role in setting things up on the U.S. end.

As you know, these meetings are costly endeavor. So, financial support from our sponsors is gratefully ac- knowledged.

Have a good time! Enjoy the conference and Prague.

With very best wishes, Ricardo Lagos, David Levine, and Noah Williams SED 2007 LOCAL INFORMATION

MEETING VENUE Profesni Dum Faculty of Mathematics and Physics Charles University Malostranske namesti 25 110 00 Prague 1

Profesni Dum is located in Prague’s historical center in the Lesser Town on Malostranske namesti (Malos- transke Square). It is the big white building on the Malostranske Square. Most SED hotels are within 5-10 minute walk from Profesni Dum. Prague has a very good transportation system. The closest subway station is Malostranska (green line A), around 10 minutes walking distance. Trams number 12, 20, 22, 23 stop right in front of Profesni Dum. Public transportation runs till midnight (there are night trams available after that).

REGISTRATION Registration will be on the first floor of the Profesni Dum starting on Wednesday June 27 from 6pm and then on every day of the conference from 9am till 6pm. In the Registration Packet you will find a program of the conference, maps, tips for restaurants and other useful information about Prague. Please do not hesitate to contact us at the Registration desk at any time for any additional help or information.

PILSNER URQUELL WELCOME RECEPTION The only real brewery in the world has donated a few kegs of beer for the Welcome Reception on Wednesday June 27 at 7pm. The reception will be held in the Aula of the Profesni Dum on the first floor. Refreshments and food will be served too. Before the Welcome Reception we organize a panel discussion for our main sponsor, the CSOB bank. If you have time please stop by to hear Ed Prescott, Zdenek Tuma (the Governor of the Czech National Bank) and Jan Lamser (CSOB) talking about banking regulation and the future of banking in general. The panel discus- sion will start in the Aula of the Profesni Dum at 4pm.

CONFERENCE PROGRAM Profesni Dum will host all plenary talks and parallel sessions. The plenary talks will be in the Aula; parallel sessions on the 1st, 2nd and 3rd floor. There will be signs and a map in the program.

PRESENTATIONS All presentations will be from computer based projectors. Please bring your USB with your presentation in pdf or powerpoint format before your session to one of our students working in your room. You are welcome but you are not expected to bring your own notebook. We will not provide laser pointers.

COFFEE BREAKS AND LUNCH Refreshments during the coffee breaks and lunch will be served on the first floor of the Profesni Dum and in the Aula. We will also give you a map of local cafes, bars and restaurants. There is a restaurant downstairs in the Profesni Dum where you can order food and drink on your own at any time. COCKTAIL PARTY On Thursday June 28 at 9pm, the Governor of the Czech National Bank, Mr. Zdenek Tuma, is hosting a cock- tail party at Senovazne namesti 30, Prague 1, the Czech National Bank main building. If you are registered for the cocktail, you will find an official invitation in your packet. A map in the Program and our students will help you to get there.

CONCERT On Friday June 29 at 8:30pm, we prepared a special replacement for The Contractions concert. It is a popular local band called Sketa Fotr which plays great cover versions of great songs. The club Popocafepetl is 5 min- utes from Profesni Dum at Ujezd Street 19. You can see it at www.popocafepetl.cz.

CONFERENCE DINNER The conference dinner will be served on Saturday June 30 at 8:30 pm at Hergetova Cihelna (Cihelna 2b) with a great view of Charles Bridge and the Vltava river. If you are registered you will find a invitation in your packet. It is a short walk from Profesni Dum and you can see the restaurant at www.cihelna.cz.

SOCCER GAME There will be a soccer game/tournament on Friday June 29 from 4:30–7:30 pm. You will find more informa- tion in the Packet. We could not find a regular size football field that would be available and close to down- town, so it will be on a smaller field 40x20 meters with artificial grass and smaller nets. Real football shoes are prohibited there, please bring tennis shoes instead.

INTERNET ACCESS Profesni Dum has a wi-fi network and a computer lab reserved for SED participants on the ground floor, room SU2.

LOCAL ORGANIZERS You can call the local organizers any time at their mobile phones: Radim Bohacek, (+420) 775 379 336, or Michal Kejak, (+420) 606 551 042.

CONFERENCE SERVICES If you need help with accommodation, tours, and everything else in Prague, please contact Conference Part- ners Prague Ltd. Sokolská 26 120 00 Prague 2 Czech Republic Website: http://www.economicdynamics.org/sed2007.htm

Phone: + 420 224 262 108 -110 Fax: + 420 224 261 703 E-mail: [email protected] [email protected] TRANSPORTATION By Air The cost of a taxi from the Ruzyně Airport to the City is approximately 20 EUR. We recommend taking a fixed fee taxi to downtown. There is also a CEDAZ shuttle bus service (the cost of one journey with one piece of luggage is around 3 EUR). Timetable of the public shuttle bus service is available on the website: www.cedaz. cz . City bus No. 119 will take you from the airport to the subway station Dejvicka (green line A) which takes you to station Malostranska near Profesni Dum. By Train and by Car Prague can be easily reached by train as well as by car. If you arrive by train, you will find a metro station (line C) at the Prague Main Station as well as at the Prague Holešovice Station. City Transportation Prague has a comprehensive network of City transportation consisting of metro, trams and buses. Single tickets can be purchased at most newspaper stands and the coin machines at metro stations. You can also purchase a pass for 1, 3 or 7 days. We recommend buying a ticket for 20 CZK, validate it in the tram/bus/ metro and use it up to 60 minutes including transfers. Ask for more information and maps at the Registration Desk.

Car Rental Most of the major car rental companies (Hertz etc.) have their offices in Prague. Detailed information is avail- able at the Registration Desk or please contact Conference Partners in advance.

CLIMATE June and July bring usually nice summer weather with temperatures around 20 - 25°C.

CURRENCY The official currency is Czech Crown (Kč). Present rate is approx. 21 CZK for 1 USD and 28 CZK for 1 EUR. Major credit cards are accepted in many shops, restaurants and hotels. You can buy Czech Crowns at banks and other authorized money exchange offices. Traveller cheques are acceptable only by leading banks.

VISAS Participants from most European countries and the USA can enter the Czech Republic without a visa. Other participants are advised to check the requirements at the closest Embassy or Consulate of the Czech Republic and to make their own arrangements. Detail information can be found on www.mzv.cz under English version, link “Travel and Living Abroad”.

INSURANCE The organizers will not accept any liability for personal injuries or loss or damage of property belonging to congress participants and accompanying persons. Kindly check your personal insurance.

ELECTRICITY In the Czech Republic, the electricity supply is 220 V, 50 Hz. The plugs are like in Germany.

WARNING Prague is generally a safe city. Nevertheless, be aware of pickpockets particularly in metro or trams, and of cheating by cab drivers: usual cab trip is up to 40Kc fixed fee plus 27Kc per kilometer. If your trip is in down- town, you should never pay more than 500Kc (20 EUR).

EMERGENCY NUMBERS IN CZECH REPUBLIC General 112, Ambulance 155, Police 158 SED 2007 TIME SCHEDULE

Time June 27-30, 2007 Location Profesní dům, Malostranské náměstí 25, Prague 1

CONFERENCE PROGRAM JUNE 28 -30, 2007

9:30 Refreshments 10:00-12:00 Parallel sessions 12:00-13:15 Lunch 13:15-15:15 Parallel sessions 15:15-15:45 Coffeebreak 15:45-17:45 Parallel sessions 17:45-18:00 Coffee break 18:00-19:30 Plenary talk

SPECIAL EVENTS Wednesday, June 27

16:00 CSOB Panel Discussion on Banking Jan Lamser (CSOB), Edward C. Prescott (ASU), Zdeněk Tůma (Governor CNB) 19:00 Pilsner Urquell Welcome Reception

Thursday, June 28 18:00-19:30 Plenary talk: Kenneth Wolpin (University of Pennsylvania) 21:00 Cocktail Party at the Czech National Bank Senovážné naměstí 30, Prague 1

Friday, June 29: 16:30-19:30 Soccer game 18:00-19:30 Plenary talk: Dilip Abreu (Princeton University) 20:30- Concert, Club Popocafepetl Újezd 19, Prague 1 www.popocafepetl.cz

Saturday, June 30: 18:00-19:30 Plenary talk: Robert Shimer (University of Chicago) 20:30 Dinner at Hergetova cihelna Cihelná 2b, Prague 1 www.kampagroup.com OVERVIEW OF PARALLEL SESSIONS

Thursday, June 28

10:00 – 12:00 13:15 – 15:15 15:45 – 17:45

The Great Moderation: Political Economy I Hiring and Separation Changes in Aggregate Volatility S 9 S 3 S 9

Markets and Mechanisms Optimal Dynamic Policies Capital Flows I S 5 S 6 S 7

Government Debt and Household Intertemporal Misallocation and Aggregate Interest Rates Decisions Productivity S 4 S 9 S 11

Labor Market Policies International Trade I Information Heterogeneity S 6 S 4 S 6

Social Security and Cyclical Properties of Labor Mechanism Design, Money, Intermediation Markets and Banking S 10 S 8 S 8 Neuroeconomics Dynamic Models of Political and Networks Economy Optimal Monetary Policy S 11 S 5 S 4

Frictional Financial Markets Long Run Growth Consumer Credit S 8 S 12 S 12

Empirical Industrial Organization I Money and Liquidity Unemployment S 3 S 11 S 3 Establishment Dynamics and Empirical Models Asset Pricing and International Trade with Micro Data the Macroeconomy S 7 S 7 S 5 Bayesian Methods Nonexpected Utility Recent Advances in Repeated in Macroeconomics and Asset Pricing Games S 12 S 10 S 10 OVERVIEW OF PARALLEL SESSIONS

Friday, June 29

10:00 – 12:00 13:15 – 15:15 15:45 – 17:45

Empirical Macroeconomics Learning in Macroeconomics Dynamic Fiscal Policies S 6 S 12 S 6

International Trade II Political Economy II Capital Flows II S 9 S 10 S 11

Investment, Volatility Search Frictions in Labor and Asset Pricing Monetary Theory and Product Markets S 7 S 9 S 3

Labor Search and Matching Growth and Liquidity Household Income Risk S 5 S 8 S 8

Incentives in a Multiperiod Labor Markets: Mobility, CNB Session: Macroeconomic Environment Productivity, Inequality Policy and Inflation Targeting S 11 S 11 S 9 Empirical Industrial Price Rigidities Organization II Auctions, Search, and Matching S 4 S 3 S 10 Productivity and Economic Development Matching and Bargaining Scale and the Macroeconomy S 3 S 6 S 4 Taxation and Political Commercial Policy, Trade Economy and Welfare Innovation and Growth S 10 S 7 S 7 Sovereign Debt and Portfolio Education Flows Credit Market Imperfections S 12 S 5 S 12 Understanding Business Optimal Employment Cycles Past and Present Contracts with Frictions Housing S 8 S 4 S 5 OVERVIEW OF PARALLEL SESSIONS

Saturday, June 30

10:00 – 12:00 13:15 – 15:15 15:45 – 17:45

The Dynamics of Beliefs: Productivity Capital Flows III Theory and Applications S 4 S 7 S 3

The Economics of Networks Price Competition Empirical Monetary Economics S 5 S 3 S 6

Bankruptcy, Collateral, Business Cycles and Default Labor Search S 12 S 10 S 9

Human Capital and Economics of Energy and Life Cycle Wage Dynamics Non-renewable Resources, S 4 S 8 Supported by CEZ S 9

Inflation Risk Sharing Prices and Pricing S 6 S 5 S 5

Long-run Risks and The Labor Supply of Women Liquidity and Financial the Macroeconomy and Wage Inequality Frictions S 9 S 4 S 10 Real Effects of Financial Crises Bubbles and Expectations Firm Financing S 7 S 11 S 8 Normative Studies of Government Policy Monetary Policy Great Depressions S 11 S 12 S 11 International Dimensions Applied Theory Investment of Fiscal and Monetary Policy S 10 S 6 S 7

Taxes and Tax Reform Dynamic Contracts Growth and Development S 3 S 8 S 12 COMPLETE LIST OF ALL SESSIONS

June 28, 2007, 10:00 – 12:00 Session 1: Political Economy I Location: S9

Thomas Cooley, New York University The Farm, The City, and the Emergence of Social Security

Dirk Niepelt, Study Center Gerzensee Sustaining Social Security

Francesco Caselli, London School of Economics On the theory of ethnic conflict

Fabrizio Zilibotti, University of Zurich Rotten Parents and Disciplined Children: A Politico-Economic Theory of Public Expenditure and Debt

Session 2: Markets and Mechanisms Location: S 5

Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, Universite du Quebec a Montreal The Macroeconomic Dynamics of Labor and Capital Market Imperfections

Pamela Labadie, George Washington University Anonymity and Individual Risk

Roc Armenter, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Intertemporal Distortions and Second Best Theory

Giuseppe Moscarini, Yale University Optimal Dynamic Contests

Session 3: Government Debt and Interest Rates, Supported by CSOB Location: S 4

Monika Piazzesi, University of Chicago Bond Supply, Expectations, and the Yield Curve

Francisco Gomes, London Business School Fiscal Policy, Asset Pricing and Economic Activity in a Savers-Spenders Economy

François Le Grand, PSE Incomplete markets and the yield curve

Juha Seppala, University of Illinois Monetary Policy, Expected Inflation, and Inflation Risk Premium

Session 4: Labor Market Policies Location: S 6

Markus Poschke, European University Institute, Florence Employment protection, firm selection, and growth

Christian Zimmermann, University of Connecticut Unemployment Benefits vs. Unemployment Accounts: A Quantitative Exploration

Yuzhe Zhang, University of Iowa Optimal Unemployment Insurance with Hidden Trade

Christopher Flinn, New York University On-the-Job Search, Minimum Wages, and Labor Market Outcomes in an Equilibrium Bargaining Framework June 28, 2007, 10:00 – 12:00 Session 5: Social Security and Intermediation Location: S 10

Remzi Kaygusuz, The Pennsylvania State University Social Security and Two-Earner Households

Mikel Pérez-Nievas, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela Millian efficiency with endogenous fertility

Piero Gottardi, University of Venice Social Security and Risk Sharing

Tiago Cavalcanti, Universidade Nova de Lisboa On the Welfare and Distributional Implications of Intermediation Costs

Session 6: Neuroeconomics and Networks Location: S 11

Attila Ambrus, Harvard University Risk-sharing agreements on social networks

Daniel Houser, George Mason University Combining brain and behavioral data to improve econometric policy analysis

Kerstin Preuschoff, California Institute of Technology Human Imagination in Financial Markets with Insiders

Aldo Rustichini, University of Minnesota Choice, Social Norms and Intelligence

Session 7: Frictional Financial Markets Location: S 8

Ricardo Lagos, New York University Crashes and Recoveries in Illiquid Markets

Adam Ashcraft, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Over the Counter Search Frictions: A Case Study of the Federal Funds Market

Peter Kondor, University of Chicago Emerging Economies and Fund Managers

Chris Edmond, New York University Asset Prices and the Composition of Consumption

Session 8: Empirical Industrial Organization I Location: S 3

Susan Athey, Harvard University Set-Asides and Subsidies in Auctions

Jakub Kastl, Stanford University Testing for Common Valuation in Treasury Bills Auctions

Aviv Nevo, Northwestern University The Pricing of Academic Journals

Liran Einav, Stanford University Liquidity Constraints and Their Causes: Evidence from Subprime Lending June 28, 2007, 10:00 – 12:00 Session 9: Establishment Dynamics and International Trade Location: S 7

Kim Ruhl, University of Texas Austin Measuring export entry costs

Stephen Redding, London School of Economics Multi-product Firms and Trade Liberalization

Amit Khandelwal, Columbia The Long and Short (of) Quality Ladders

George Alessandria, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Changes in U.S. Exporter Participation and Trade Costs

Session 10: Bayesian Methods in Macroeconomics Location: S 12

Pooyan Amir Ahmadi, Humboldt University Measuring Monetary Policy: A Bayesian FAVAR Approach with Agnostic Identification

Zheng Liu, Emory University Macroeconomic Volatility and Monetary Policy Regimes

Sergey Slobodyan, CERGE-EI Learning dynamics in an estimated medium-sized DSGE model

Marco Del Negro, FRB Atlanta-Research Forming Priors for DSGE Models (and How It Affects the Assessment of Nominal Rigidities) June 28, 2007, 13:15 – 15:15 Session 11: Hiring and Separation Location: S 3

Amil Petrin, University of Chicago Job Security Does Affect Economic Efficiency, Theory, A New Statistic, and Evidence from Chile

Kangwoo Park, Seoul National University Labor-Market Implications of Contracts under Moral Hazard

Arnaud Chéron, GAINS Job creation and job destruction over the life cycle

James Costain, Bank of Spain Hiring, separation, and real downward wage rigidity in European economies

Session 12: Optimal Dynamic Policies Location: S 6

François Langot, CEPREMAP Optimal unemployment insurance in a life cycle model

Fernando Martin, Simon Fraser University Dynamic Optimal Insurance and Lack of Commitment

Richard Dennis, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Model Uncertainty and Monetary Policy

Stefania Albanesi, Columbia Optimal Dynamic Taxation of Households: Insurance, Incentives and Commitment

Session 13: Household Intertemporal Decisions Location: S 9

Jessica Wachter, The Wharton School Why do Household Portfolio Shares Rise in Wealth?

Luigi Pistaferri, Stanford University Disability shocks and consumption behavior

Thijs van Rens, CREI and Universitat Pompeu Fabra Cyclical Skill-Biased Technological Change

Giovanni Luca Violante, New York University Consumption and Labor Supply with Partial Insurance: An Analytical Framework

Session 14: International Trade I Location: S 4

Thomas Chaney, The University of Chicago Liquidity Constrained Exporters

Veronica Rappoport, Columbia Business School The Return to Multinational Production and “Global Imbalances”

Gino Gancia, CREI and UPF On Globalization and the Growth of Governments

Gita Gopinath, Harvard Passthrough at the Dock: Pricing to Currency and to Market? June 28, 2007, 13:15 – 15:15 Session 15: Cyclical Properties of Labor Markets Location: S 8

Antonella Trigari, IGIER, Università Bocconi An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage

Leena Rudanko, University of Chicago Idiosyncratic and Aggregate Risk in a Frictional Labor Market

Pedro Silos, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Uninsurable Individual Risk and the Cyclical Behavior of Unemployment and Vacancies

Eran Yashiv, Tel Aviv University U.S. Labor Market Dynamics and the Business Cycle

Session 16: Dynamic Models of Political Economy Location: S 5

Leopold von Thadden, European Central Bank On policy interactions among nations: when do cooperation and commitment matter ?

Irina Yakadina, IMF Politically Optimal Fiscal Policy

Davide Debortoli, Universitat Pompeu Fabra Political Disagreement, Lack of Commitment and the Level of Debt

Marco Battaglini, Princeton University A Dynamic Theory of Public Spending, Taxation and Debt

Session 17: Long Run Growth Location: S 12

Fidel Perez Sebastian, University of Alicante The Role of Land Along the Development Path

Ani Guerdjikova, Cornell University Private Incentives versus Class Interests: Implications for Growth

Xiaodong Zhu, University of Toronto Modernization of Agriculture and Long Term Growth

Akos Valentinyi, University of Southampton Growth and Structural Transformation

Session 18: Money and Liquidity Location: S 11

Pietro Senesi, Università di Napoli Money and nominal bonds

Ping He, University of Illinois, Chicago Money, Banking, and Monetary Policy

Adrian Peralta-Alva, University of Miami Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policies in a Search Theoretic Model of Monetary Exchange

Irina Telyukova, University of California San Diego Household Need for Liquidity and the Credit Card Debt Puzzle June 28, 2007, 13:15 – 15:15 Session 19: Empirical Models with Micro Data Location: S 7

Joao Ejarque, University of Essex Identifying Adjustment Costs of Net and Gross Employment Changes

Marco Cozzi, University College London Hard Drugs Addiction, Drug Violations and Property Crimes in the US

Aureo De Paula, University of Pennsylvania The Informal Sector

Andrea Tiseno, Banca D’Italia Financial markets participation, entry costs and unobserved heterogeneity of expectations

Session 20: Nonexpected Utility and Asset Pricing Location: S 10

Bryan Routledge, Carnegie Mellon University Recursive Risk Sharing: Microfoundations for Representative-Agent Asset Pricing

Irasema Alonso, Yale University Ambiguity Aversion and the Welfare Costs of Business Cycles

Gian Luca Clementi, Stern School of Business Asset Pricing in a General Equilibrium Production Economy with Chew-Dekel Risk Preferences

Sydney Ludvigson, New York University An Estimation of Economic Models with Recursive Preferences June 28, 2007, 15:45 – 17:45 Session 21: The Great Moderation: Changes in Aggregate Volatility Location: S 9

Fabrizio Perri, New York University The “great moderation’’ and the US external imbalance

Vincenzo Quadrini, USC Financial Innovations and Macroeconomic Volatility

Giorgio Primiceri, Northwestern University Macroeconomic Volatility, Learning, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Nir Jaimovich, Stanford The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility

Session 22: Capital Flows I Location: S 7

Natalia Ramondo, University of Texas at Austin Trade, Multinational Production, and the Gains from Openness

Bent Sorensen, University of Houston Why Does Capital Flow to Rich States?

Doireann Fitzgerald, Stanford University Trade Costs, Asset Market Frictions and Risk Sharing

Mark Wright, Stanford University The Efficiency and Mobility of International Capital Flows: 1950-2006

Session 23: Misallocation and Aggregate Productivity Location: S 11

Juan Sanchez, University of Rochester Financing Development: The Role of Information Costs

Felipe Meza, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid Total Factor Productivity and Labor Reallocation: The Case of the Korean 1997 Crisis

Amartya Lahiri, University of British Columbia Income Disparities Across Indian States

Eric Bartelsman, Vrije Universiteit Cross Country Differences in Productivity: The Role of Allocative Efficiency

Session 24: Information Heterogeneity Location: S 6

Gianluca Femminis, Università Cattolica, Milano The Social Value of Public Information with Costly Private Information

Kristoffer Nimark, Reserve Bank of Australia Dynamic Higher Order Expectations

In Ho Lee, Seoul National University A Model of Dynamic Information Aggregation with Uninformed Rational Agents

Sven Rady, University of Munich Strategic Experimentation with Poisson Bandits June 28, 2007, 15:45 – 17:45 Session 25: Mechanism Design, Money, and Banking Location: S 8

Ted Temzelides, University of Pittsburgh Mechanism design and Payments

David Andolfatto, Simon Fraser University Moral Hazard in the Diamond-Dybvig Model of Banking

Todd Keister, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Commitment and Equilibrium Bank Runs

Ed Nosal, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Counterfeiting as Private Money in Mechanism Design

Session 26: Optimal Monetary Policy Location: S 4

Eric Swanson, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Optimal Time-Consistent Monetary Policy in the New Keynesian Model with Repeated Simultaneous Play

Rochelle Edge, Federal Reserve Board Welfare-Maximizing Monetary Policy under Parameter Uncertainty

Tack Yun, Federal Reserve Board Strategic Complementarities and Optimal Monetary Policy

Andrea Tambalotti, Federal Reserve Bank of New York The Normative Implications of Heterogeneity in the Frequency of Price Adjustment

Session 27: Consumer Credit Location: S 12

Kartik Athreya, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Unsecured Credit and Self-Employment

Wenli Li, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia A Structural Model of Chapter 13 Personal Bankruptcy

Winfried Koeniger, IZA Incomplete Markets and the Evolution of US Consumer Debt

Jim MacGee, University of Western Ontario Credit Scoring and Endogenous Stigma

Session 28: Unemployment Location: S 3

Ronald Wolthoff, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Structural Estimation of Search Intensity: Do non-employed workers search hard enough?

William Hawkins, University of Rochester Equilibrium Unemployment in a Generalized Search Model

Michael Reiter, Universitat Pompeu Fabra The relevance of capital and savings for labor market fluctuations

Aleksander Berentsen, University of Basel Inflation and unemployment: Lagos-Wright meets Mortensen-Pissarides June 28, 2007, 15:45 – 17:45 Session 29: Asset Pricing and the Macroeconomy Location: S 5

Martin Schneider, New York University Booms and Busts in Segmented Asset Markets

Chao Wei, George Washington University Inflation and Stock Prices: No Illusion

YiLi Chien, Purdue University Macro Implications of Household Finance

Harald Uhlig, Humboldt University Berlin Explaining Asset Prices with External Habits and Wage Rigidities in a DSGE Model

Session 30: Recent Advances in Repeated Games Location: S 10 George Mailath, Yale University Purification in the Infinitely-Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma

Ichiro Obara, UCLA Finite State Equilibria in Dynamic Games

Tadashi Sekiguchi, Kyoto University The Folk Theorem for Repeated Games with Observation Costs

Johannes Hörner, Northwestern University Private Monitoring without Conditional Independence

June 28, 2007, 18:00 – 19:30 Session 31: Plenary Session 1 AULA

Kenneth Wolpin, University of Pennsylvania Plenary Session June 29, 2007, 10:00 – 12:00 Session 32: Empirical Macroeconomics Location: S 6

Barbara Rossi, Duke University Information Criteria for Impulse Response Function Matching Estimation

Neville Francis, University of North Carolina Measures of Per Capita Hours and their Implications for the Technology-Hours Debate

Robert Vigfusson, Federal Reserve Board The Power of Long-Run VARs

Lorenzo Forni, Bank of Italy The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: estimates for the euro area

Session 33: International Trade II Location: S 9

Jonathan Eaton, New York University Unbalanced Trade

Michael Waugh, University of Iowa International Trade and Income Differences

Ananth Ramanarayanan, University of Minnesota International Trade Dynamics with Intermediate Inputs

Prakash Kannan, International Monetary Fund On The Welfare Benefits Of An International Currency

Session 34: Investment, Volatility and Asset Pricing Location: S 7

Motohiro Yogo, University of Pennsylvania Durability of Output and Expected Stock Returns

Lars-Alexander Kuehn, University of British Columbia Time-to-Build and Asset Prices

Roméo Tédongap Nguefack, Université de Montréal Consumption Volatility and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

Jordi Mondria, University of Toronto The Puzzling Evolution of the Home Bias, Information Processing and Financial Openness

Session 35: Labor Search and Matching Location: S5

Gabriel Felbermayr, Eberhard Karls University, Tuebingen Product Market Regulation, Firm Selection and Unemployment

Bjoern Bruegemann, Yale University The Joint Effect of Firing Costs on Employment and Productivity in Search and Matching Models

Jason Faberman, Bureau of Labor Statistics The Effect of Quits on Worker Recruitment: Theory and Evidence

Dale Mortensen, Northwestern University Island Matching June 29, 2007, 10:00 – 12:00 Session 36: Incentives in a Multiperiod Environment Location: S 11

Ayca Kaya, University of Iowa When does it pay to get informed?

In-Koo Cho, University of Illinois Perishable Durable Goods

Mark Westerfield, University of Southern California Disagreement and Learning in a Dynamic Contracting Model

Arantxa Jarque, Universidad de Alicante Optimal CEO Compensation and Option Repricing

Session 37: Price Rigidities Location: S 4

Jonathan Willis, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Real Rigidities and Nominal Price Changes

Lukasz Drozd, University of Minnesota Understanding International Prices: Customers as Capital

Jon Steinsson, Harvard University Monetary Non-Neutrality in a Multi-Sector Menu Cost Model

Christian Hellwig, University of California Los Angeles Prices and Market Shares in a Menu Cost Model

Session 38: Productivity and Economic Development Location: S 3

Andres Rodriguez-Clare, PSU Trade, Diffusion and the Gains from Openness

Hyeok Jeong, University of Southern California Sources of TFP Growth: Occupational Choice and Financial Deepening

Riccardo DiCecio, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Heterogeneous Firms, Productivity, and Poverty Traps

Yongseok Shin, University of Wisconsin Financial Frictions and the Persistence of History: A Quantitative Exploration

Session 39: Taxation and Political Economy Location: S 10

Alessandro Riboni, University of Montréal Statute Law or Case Law?

Marina Azzimonti Renzo, University of Iowa Starving the Leviathan: a Dynamic Analysis of Fiscal Constitutions

Catarina Reis, MIT Taxation without Commitment

Assaf Razin, Tel Aviv University The Survival of Social Security and Immigration June 29, 2007, 10:00 – 12:00 Session 40: Education Location: S 12

Hui He, University of Minnesota Skill Premium, Schooling Decisions, Skill-Biased Technological and Demographic Change: A Macroeconomic Analysis

Mario Fiorini, University College London Fostering Educational Enrolment Through Subsidies: the Issue of Timing

Todd Schoellman, Stanford University The Causes and Consequences of Cross-Country Differences in Schooling Attainment

Lutz Hendricks, Iowa State University Educational Attainment in U.S. Cities

Session 41: Understanding Business Cycles Past and Present Location: S 8

Isabel Correia, Banco de Portugal Monetary Policy with Single Instrument Feedback Rules.

Franck Portier, Universite de Toulouse The International Propagation of News Shocks

Huw Lloyd-Ellis, Queens University Intrinsic Business Cycles

Michelle Alexopoulos, University of Toronto Believe it or not! The 1930s was a technologically progressive decade June 29, 2007, 13:15 – 15:15 Session 42: Learning in Macroeconomics Location: S 12

Aarti Singh, Washington University Learning and the Great Moderation

Kenneth Kasa, Simon Fraser University Learning and Model Validation

Dmitri Kolyuzhnov, Charles University-Academy of Sciences Optimal Monetary Policy Rules: The Problem of Stability under Heterogeneous Learning

Stefano Eusepi, Fedral Reserve Bank of New York Adaptive Learning as a Propagation Mechanism

Session 43: Political Economy II Location: S 10

Pohan Fong, Concordia University Bargaining Frictions and the Ratchet Effect of Government Spending

Hulya Eraslan, University of Pennsylvania Strategic Voting over Strategic Proposals

Allan Drazen, University of Maryland Electoral Economics in New Democracies: Affecting Attitudes About Democracy

Igor Livshits, University of Western Ontario Greed as a Source of Polarization

Session 44: Monetary Theory Location: S 9

Ricardo Cavalcanti, University of Toronto On the Optimum Distribution of Money

Daniela Puzzello, University of Kentucky Commodity money and multilateral meetings

Christopher Waller, University of Notre Dame The Societal Benefits of Outside versus Inside Bonds

Narayana Kocherlakota, University of Minnesota Money and Credit: An Equivalence Result and Its Implications

Session 45: Growth and Liquidity Location: S 8

Antoine Martin, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liquidity saving mechanisms

Francesca Carapella, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis FED Bank runs in a dynamic general equilibrium framework

Juan Cordoba, Rice University The Role of Education in Development

Aubhik Khan, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Entrepreneurship with borrowing constraints in a model of economic development June 29, 2007, 13:15 – 15:15 Session 46: Labor Markets: Mobility, Productivity, Inequality Location: S 11

Nicola Fuchs-Schuendeln, Harvard University Explaining the Low Labor Productivity in East Germany - A Spatial Analysis

Damba Lkhagvasuren, Northwestern University Big Locational Differences in Unemployment Despite High Labor Mobility

Guillaume Horny, BETA-CNRS Job mobility in Portugal: a Bayesian study with matched worker-firm data

Burhanettin Kuruscu, University of Texas at Austin and University of Western Ontario Politico-Economic Consequences of Rising Wage Inequality

Session 47: Empirical Industrial Organization II Location: S 3

Jaap Abbring, Vrije Universiteit Better Safe than Sorry? Ex Ante and Ex Post Moral Hazard in Dynamic Insurance

Jean-François Houde, University of Wisconsin-Madison Spatial Differentiation in Retail Markets for Gasoline

Alan Sorensen, Stanford University Ticket Resale

Aamir Hashmi, National U of Singapore and U of Toronto Market Structure and Innovation: A Dynamic Analysis of the Global Automobile Industry

Session 48: Matching and Bargaining Location: S 6

Philipp Kircher, University of Pennsylvania Efficiency of Directed Search

Andrzej Skrzypacz, Stanford University Bargaining with Arrival of New Traders

Stephan Lauermann, Bonn Graduate School of Economics Dynamic Matching and Bargaining Games: A General Approach

Andrew Postlewaite, University of Pennsylvania Pricing in Matching Markets

Session 49: Commercial Policy, Trade and Welfare Location: S 7

Horag Choi, The University of Auckland Welfare Gains to Trade Reform under Firm Heterogeneity

Costas Arkolakis, University of Minnesota and Yale University Market Access Costs and the New Consumers Margin in International Trade

Svetlana Demidova, The University of Georgia Export Subsidies, Productivity and Welfare under Firm-Level Heterogeneity

Giammario Impullitti, IMT Lucca and EUI Florence International Technological Competition and Optimal R&D Subsidies in the US: 1973-1990 June 29, 2007, 13:15 – 15:15 Session 50: Sovereign Debt and Portfolio Flows Location: S 5

Manuel Amador, Stanford University Sovereign Debt and the Tragedy of the Commons

David Benjamin, University of Southampton A Theory of Delay in Sovereign Defaults Based on Limited Commitment

Alan Sutherland, University of St Andrews Country Portfolio Dynamics

Robert Kollmann, Free University of Brussels Return Volatility and International Portfolio Choice

Session 51: Optimal Employment Contracts with Frictions Location: S 4

Xue Qiao, Iowa State University Unemployment Insurance in a Dynamic Economy with Endogenous Layoffs

Lodewijk Visschers, University of Pennsylvania Employment Uncertain and Wage Contracts

Mariassunta Giannetti, Stockholm School of Economics Fighting for Talent: Risk-Taking, Corporate Volatility, and Organizational Change

Eva Nagypal, Northwestern University Job-to-job transitions and wage dynamics June 29, 2007, 15:45 – 17:45 Session 52: Dynamic Fiscal Policies Location: S 6

Vasia Panousi, MIT Revisiting the Supply-Side Effects of Government Spending Under Incomplete Markets

Marek Kapicka, University of California Santa Barbara Optimal Human Capital Policies

Pricila Maziero, University of Minnesota and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Accounting for private information

Veronica Guerrieri, University of Chicago, GSB Liquidity and Spending Dynamics Session 53: Capital Flows II Location: S 11

Cristina Arellano, University of Minnesota Enforcement, Incomplete Contracts, and Firm Dynamics

Enrique G. Mendoza, University of Maryland Financial Integration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalance

Bernardo Guimaraes, London School of Economics Optimal external debt and default

Mark Aguiar, University of Rochester Efficient Expropriation

Session 54: Search Frictions in Labor and Product Markets Location: S 3

Aysegul Sahin, Federal Reserve Bank of New York The Aggregate Implications of Indivisible Labor, Incomplete Markets and Search Frictions Yongsung Chang, Seoul National University Comparative Advantage in Cyclical Unemployment

Bulent Guler, University of Texas at Austin Joint Search: New Opportunities and New Frictions

Guido Menzio, University of Pennsylvania Dynamic Pricing in a Frictional Product Market

Session 55: Household Income Risk Location: S 8

Anthony Smith, Yale Inferring Labor Income Risk from Economic Choices: An Indirect Inference Approach

Karsten Jeske, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Risk-Sharing: The Importance of Health Expenditure Shocks

Anna Batyra, Catholic University of Louvain Are turbulences of Sargent and Ljungqvist consistent with lower aggregate volatility of Stock and Watson?

Paulo Monteiro, Université Libre de Bruxelles Family Labor Supply, Precautionary Behavior, Aggregate Saving and Employment June 29, 2007, 15:45 – 17:45 Session 56: CNB Session: Macroeconomic Policy and Inflation Targeting Location: S 9

Jan Bruha, Czech National Bank Inquiries on Dynamics of Transition Economy Convergence in a Two-Country Model

Lars Svensson, Princeton University Bayesian and Adaptive Optimal Policy under Model Uncertainty

Ondra Kamenik, Czech National Bank Trade Openness and Monetary Policy Rules

Christopher Sims, Princeton University Recognizing and Communicating Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Projections

Session 57: Auctions, Search, and Matching Location: S 10

Ricardo Serrano-Padial, University of California, San Diego Strategic Foundations of Prediction Markets and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis

Artyom Shneyerov, UBC Bilateral Matching and Bargaining with Private Information

Julien Prat, Vienna University Job Market Signaling and Employer Learning

Manolis Galenianos, Pennsylvania State University A Search-Theoretic Model of the Retail Market for Illegal Drugs

Session 58: Scale and the Macroeconomy Location: S 4

Rebecca Hellerstein, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Are Big Firms Born or Grown?

Francisco Buera, Northwestern University Financing Scale and Relative Prices

Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, Princeton University Spin-offs and the Market for Ideas

Erzo Luttmer, University of Minnesota New Goods and the Size Distribution of Firms

Session 59: Innovation and Growth Location: S 7

Roberto Samaniego, George Washington University An R&D-based Model of Multi-sector Growth

Max Elger, Stockholm School of Economics Endogenous Growth and Investment-Specific Innovations - Evidence and Predictions

Byeongju Jeong, CERGE-EI Intergenerational Bargaining in Technology Adoption

Diego Restuccia, University of Toronto How Important is Human Capital? A Quantitative Theory Assessment of World Income Inequality June 29, 2007, 15:45 – 17:45 Session 60: Credit Market Imperfections Location: S 12

Francesc Obiols-Homs, UAB A note on borrowing limits and welfare

Christiane Clemens, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg Credit Constraints, Entrepreneurial Activity, and Occupational Choice under Risk

Galina Vereshchagina, University of Iowa Consumption Commitments, Borrowing Constraints and Preferences for Risk

Hugo A. Hopenhayn, UCLA Equilibrium Default with Limited Commitment

Session 61: Housing Location: S 5

Alexander Michaelides, London School of Economics From Shirtsleeves to Shirtsleeves in a Long Lifetime

Nancy Stokey, University of Chicago Housing and Nondurable Consumption

Matteo Iacoviello, Boston College The Role of Housing Collateral in an Estimated Two-Sector Model of the US Economy

James Albrecht, Georgetown University Directed Search in the Housing Market

June 29, 2007, 18:00 – 19:30 0 Session 62: Plenary Session 2 AULA

Dilip Abreu, Princeton University Plenary Session June 30, 2007, 10:00 – 12:00 Session 63: Productivity Location: S 4

Harry Paarsch, University of Iowa Intertemporal Productivity under Fixed Wages and Piece Rates

David Lagakos, UCLA Explaining Cross-Country Productivity Differences in Retailing

Simona Cociuba, University of Minnesota A Theory of Transition to a Better Technology

Arilton Teixeira, Capixaba Research Foundation Privatization’s Impact on Private Productivity: The Case of

Session 64: The Economics of Networks Location: S 5

Christian Riis, Norwegian School of Management Network Competition with Local Network

Markus Mobius, Harvard University Social Learning and Consumer Demand

Onur Ozgur, University of Montreal Dynamic Social Interactions: Identification and Characterization

Luis Cabral, New York University Dynamic Price Competition with Network Effects

Session 65: Business Cycles Location: S 12

Fabio Ghironi, Boston College Monopoly Power and Endogenous Variety in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium: Distortions and Rem- edies

Andrei Levchenko, International Monetary Fund International Trade and Comovement of Business Cycles

Francois Gourio, Boston University Investment Spikes: New Facts and a General Equilibrium Exploration

Tomoyuki Nakajima, Kyoto University Collateral constraint and news-driven cycles

Session 66: Human Capital and Wage Dynamics Location: S 8

Flavio Cunha, University of Chicago Estimating the Technology of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Formation

Ryuichi Tanaka, Tokyo Institute of Technology Job Assignment and Human Capital Accumulation

Shintaro Yamaguchi, McMaster University Career and Skill Formation: A Dynamic Occupational Choice Model With Multidimensional Skills

Maurizio Mazzocco, UCLA Wage Dynamics of Single and Married Men June 30, 2007, 10:00 – 12:00 Session 67: Inflation Location: S 6

Miquel Faig, University of Toronto The Welfare Cost of Expected and Unexpected Inflation

Miguel Molico, Bank of Canada Idiosyncratic Uncertainty, Inflation and Welfare

Allen Head, Queen’s University Elastic Money, Settlement, and Interest Rate Policy

Huberto Ennis, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Avoiding the Inflation Tax

Session 68: Long-run Risks and the Macroeconomy Location: S 9

Robert Tetlow, Federal Reserve Board Learning and the Role of Macroeconomic Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Lars Lochstoer, London Business School Long-Run Risk through Consumption Smoothing

Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, NYU Stern School of Business The Wealth-Consumption Ratio: A Litmus Test for Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models

Amir Yaron, The Wharton School The Asset Pricing Macro Nexus and Return Cash-Flow Predictability

Session 69: Real Effects of Financial Crises Location: S 7

Vivian Zhanwei Yue, New York University Solving the Country Risk-Business Cycles Disconnect: Endogenous Output Collapse in a Model of Sovereign Default

Simon Gilchrist, Boston University Investment during the Korean financial crisis: A structural econometric approach.

Guido Lorenzoni, MIT Persistent Appreciations and Overshooting: A Normative Analysis

Carlos Urrutia, ITAM Credit Constraints, Firm Dynamics and the Transmission of External Financial Shocks

Session 70: Normative Studies of Government Policy Location: S 11

Nicola Pavoni, UCL Hidden Wealth, Unemployment Insurance, and Employment Duration: The Optimal Shape of UI Benefits in the Presence of Layoff Risk

Stavros Panageas, The Wharton School - University of Pennsylvania Optimal Retirement Benefit Guarantees

Fabien Moizeau University of Toulouse Dynamic Regulation of Public Good Quality

S. Boragan Aruoba, University of Maryland Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy when Money is Essential June 30, 2007, 10:00 – 12:00 Session 71: Applied Theory Location: S 10

Dragan Filipovich, El Colegio de Mexico, CEE Cheap Talk on the Circle

Mehmet Ekmekci, Northwestern University Campaigns as Coordination Devices

Arianna Degan, University of Quebec at Montreal Do Voters Vote Sincerely?

Alessandro Citanna, HEC - Paris Recursive equilibrium in stochastic OLG economies

Session 72: Taxes and Tax Reform Location: S 3

Selahattin Imrohoroglu, University of Southern California Altruism, Incomplete Markets, and Tax Reform

Kelly Ragan, Stockholm School of Economics Taxes, Transfers and Time Use: Fiscal Policy in a Model of Household Production

Emanuela Cardia, Universite de Montreal The Effects of Public Spending Shocks on Consumption: Reconciling Theory and Evidence

Michal Kejak, CERGE-EI Optimal Government Policies in Models with Heterogeneous Agents June 30, 2007, 13:15 – 15:15 Session 73: Capital Flows III Location: S 7

Hui Tong, International Monetary Fund Systemic Liquidity and the Composition of Foreign Investment: Theory and Empirical Evidence

Viktor Tsyrennikov, NYU/Cornell Capital Flows and Moral Hazard

Katherine Smith, USNA The composition of capital flows when emerging market firms face financing constraints

Ellen McGrattan, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Technology Capital and the U.S. Current Account

Session 74: Price Competition Location: S 3

Jean Guillaume Forand, University of Toronto Competing Through Information Provision

Alp Atakan, Northwestern University Competitive Equilibria in Decentralized Matching with Incomplete Information

Shouyong Shi, University of Toronto Matching, Pricing, and Quality Investment

Jan Eeckhout, University of Pennsylvania The Sorting Effect of Price Competition

Session 75: Bankruptcy, Collateral, and Default Location: S 10

Borys Grochulski, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Optimal Personal Bankruptcy Design: A Mirrlees Approach

Leo Ferraris, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid Collateral Secured Loans in a Monetary Economy

Antonia Diaz, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid Credit and Inflation under Borrowers’ Lack of Commitment

Hisashi Nakamura, University of Tokyo A Continuous-Time Analysis of Optimal Debt Contracts: Theory and Applications

Session 76: Economics of Energy and Non-renewable Resources, Supported by CEZ Location: S 9

Andrew Scott, London Business School Running out of the Devil’s Excrement

Luis Aguiar-Conraria, Universidade do Minho Oil dependence and Economic Instability

Luis Puch, Universidad Complutense Plants, Vintage Capital and Energy Use

Michele Cavallo, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Measuring oil-price shocks using market-based information June 30, 2007, 13:15 – 15:15 Session 77: Risk Sharing Location: S 5

Giorgio Topa, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Risk Sharing, Informal Networks and Living Arrangements

Arpad Abraham, University of Rochester Risk Sharing under Limited Committment

Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, University of Chicago Heterogeneity, Risk Sharing and the Welfare Costs of Risk

Nezih Guner, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid Marital Instability and the Distribution of Wealth

Session 78: The Labor Supply of Women and Wage Inequality Location: S 4

Donghoon Lee, New York University Increasing idiosyncratic risk and converging gender differentials in the labor market

Claudia Olivetti, Boston University Gender and Dynamic Agency: Theory and Evidence on the Compensation of Female Top Executives

Michal Jerzmanowski, Clemson University Financial Development and Wage Inequality: Theory and Evidence from US States

Alessandra Fogli, NYU and Minneapolis Fed Nature or Nurture? Learning and Female Labor Force Dynamics

Session 79: Bubbles and Expectations Location: S 11

Laura Veldkamp, NYU Stern The geography of female labor force participation and the spread of cultural information

Martin Floden, Stockholm School of Economics Vintage Capital and Expectations Driven Business Cycles

Kevin Lansing, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Rational and Near-Rational Bubbles Without Drift

Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Bank of Canada Information Flows and Aggregate Persistence

Session 80: Monetary Policy Location: S 12

Christopher Otrok, University of Virginia Optimal Monetary Policy in a Medium Scale Model for Emerging Markets

Rajesh Singh, Iowa State University Optimal Monetary Policy under Asset Market Segmentation

Carlo Altavilla, University of Naples Parthenope Inflation Forecasts, Monetary Policy and Unemployment Dynamics: Evidence from the US and the Euro area

Federico Ravenna, University of California Santa Cruz Vacancies, Unemployment, and the Phillips Curve June 30, 2007, 13:15 – 15:15 Session 81: Investment Location: S 6

Doriana Ruffino, Boston University Lumps and Clusters in Duopolistic Investment Games: An Early Exercise Premium Approach

David Lucca, Board of Governors of the F.R.S. Resuscitating Time-to-Build

James Kahn, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Housing Prices and Growth

Thomas Philippon, Stern School of Business, New York University The y-Theory of Investment

Session 82: Dynamic Contracts Location: S 8

Christopher Sleet, Carnegie Mellon University Politically credible taxation

Yuliy Sannikov, UC Berkeley Agency Problems, Screening and Increasing Credit Lines

Tomasz Piskorski, NYU Optimal Mortgage Design

Noah Williams, Princeton University Persistent Private Information June 30, 2007, 15:45 – 17:45 Session 83: The Dynamics of Beliefs: Theory and Applications Location: S 3

Drew Fudenberg, Harvard University Non-Equilibrium Learning with Heterogeneous Priors

Muhamet Yildiz, MIT Learning and disagreement in an uncertain world

Andrea Wilson, Harvard University Optimal Optimism and Selective Attention in Boundedly Rational Agents

Gilat Levy, London School of Economics A Theory of Religion: Linking Individual Beliefs

Session 84: Empirical Monetary Economics Location: S 6

Alexei Deviatov, New Economic School Estimating a Cagan-type demand function for gold: 1561-1913

Francesco Columba, Bank of Italy Speed of euro adoption

Thomas Lubik, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Moving Targets

Julia Thomas, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Breaking the New Keynesian Dichotomy: Asset Market Segmentation and the Monetary Transmission Mecha- nism

Session 85: Labor Search Location: S 9

Per Krusell, Princeton University Matching with Precautionary Savings

Eric Smith, University of Essex Wage Dispersion and Wage Dynamics Within and Across Firms

Espen Moen, Norwegian School of Management (BI) Small Markets

Susan Vroman, Georgetown University Search by Committee

Session 86: Life Cycle Location: S 4

Holger Sieg, Carnegie Mellon University Household Life Cycle Location Choices and the Dynamics ofMetropolitan Communities

Greg Kaplan, New York University Inequality and the Lifecycle

Eugene Choo, University of Toronto Lifecycle marriage matching: Theory and Evidence

Gary Hansen, UCLA Hours Volatility over the Life Cycle: The Role of Learning by Doing June 30, 2007, 15:45 - 17:45 Session 87: Prices and Pricing Location: S 5

Eduardo Engel, Yale University Price stickiness in Ss models: new interpretations for old results

Ricardo Reis, Princeton University Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire Joseph Kaboski, Ohio State University Lumpy Trade and the Price of Imports in Large Devaluations

Christopher Telmer, Carnegie Mellon University Microeconomic Sources of Real Exchange Rate Variability

Session 88: Liquidity and Financial Frictions Location: S 10

Benjamin Eden, Vanderbilt University International Seigniorage Payments

Matias Fontenla, University of New Mexico Liquidity Provision and Banking Crises with Heterogeneous Agents

Kaiji Chen, University of Oslo Capital Reallocation, Productivity, and Expectation-Driven Business Cycles

Giovanni Favara, HEC Lausanne Agency Costs, Net Worth and Endogenous Business Fluctuations

Session 89: Firm Financing Location: S 8

Harold Cole, University of Pennsylvania A Dynamic Theory of Optimal Capital Structure

Jianjun Miao, Boston University Firm Heterogeneity and the Long-Run Effects of Dividend Tax Reform

Dmitry Livdan, Texas A&M University A dynamic theory of the pecking-order based upon repeated signalling

Lukas Schmid, University of Pennsylvania Levered Returns

Session 90: Great Depressions Location: S 11

Gauti Eggertsson, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Was the New Deal Contractionary?

Monique Ebell, Humboldt-University of Berlin Real Origins of the Great Depression: Monopoly Power, Unions and the American Business Cycle in the 1920s

Alice Schoonbroodt, University of Southampton Baby Busts and Baby Booms: A Cross-Country Study of Fertility Responses to Depressions and War Capital

Slim Bridji, University of Paris X and EconomiX Accounting for the French Great Depression June 30, 2007, 15:45 - 17:45 Session 91: International Dimensions of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Location: S 7

Viktoria Hnatkovska, University of British Columbia The Non--Monotonic Relationship between Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

Michael Kumhof, Stanford University A Party without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits

Gernot Mueller, Goethe University Frankfurt International Dimensions of Fiscal Policy Transmission

Bernardino Adao, Banco de Portugal On the Relevance of Exchange Rate Regimes for Stabilization Policy

Session 92: Growth and Development Location: S 12

John Seater, North Carolina State University Factor-Eliminating Technical Change

Harald Fadinger, Unversitat Pompeu Fabra Development Accounting in a Heckscher-Ohlin World

Hernan Moscoso Boedo, University of Virginia Optimal Technology and Development

Yann Algan, Paris School of Economics Social Attitudes and Macroeconomic Performance

June 30, 2007, 18:00 – 19:30 Session 93: Plenary Session 3, Sponzored by CSOB AULA

Robert Shimer, University of Chicago Plenary Session RULES FOR PRESENTERS AND SESSION CHAIRS 1. Every parallel session lasts for two hours and contains four papers 2. Every presenter has a time endowment of 25 minutes, in order to allow 5 minutes of open-floor discussion at the end of each presentation 3. All presentations are from laptops and data projectors. Please bring your own presentation on a USB device in a pdf or PowerPoint format to a student assistant in your room at least 10 minutes before your session starts. 4. The Chair is by default the last presenter of the session 5. The Chair is in charge of keeping track of time (and it is in her/his own interest, since s/he will be the last one to present her/his research) 6. At the beginning of each session, the Chair should make sure that all four speakers are present. In case one of them is missing, s/he is free to allocate time differently LIST OF CONFERENCE PARTICIPANTS LAST FIRST INSTITUTION EMAIL Abbring Jaap VU University Amsterdam [email protected] Abraham Arpad University of Rochester [email protected] Abreu Dilip Princeton University [email protected] Acedanski Jan University of Economics in Katowice [email protected] Adao Bernardino Banco de Portugal, U Catolica [email protected] Aguiar Mark University of Rochester [email protected] Aguiar-Conraria Luis Universidade do Minho [email protected] Akyol Ahmet York University [email protected] Albanesi Stefania Columbia University [email protected] Albrecht James Georgetown University [email protected] Ales Laurence University of Minnesota [email protected] Alessandria George Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia [email protected] Alexopoulos Michelle University of Toronto [email protected] Algan Yann PSE [email protected] Alonso Irasema Yale University [email protected] Altavilla Carlo University of Naples Parthenope [email protected] Amador Manuel Stanford University [email protected] Ambrus Attila Harvard University [email protected] Amir Ahmadi Pooyan Humboldt University [email protected] Andolfatto David Simon Fraser University [email protected] Arato Hiroki Kyoto University [email protected] Arellano Cristina University of Minnesota [email protected] Arkolakis Konstantinos C. University of Minnesota [email protected] Armenter Roc Federal Reserve Bank of New York [email protected] Aruoba Boragan University of Maryland [email protected] Ashcraft Adam Federal Reserve Bank of New York [email protected] Atakan Alp Northwestern University [email protected] Athey Susan Harvard University [email protected] Athreya Kartik Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond [email protected] Azzimonti Renzo Marina University of Iowa [email protected] Bartelsman Eric Vrije Universiteit [email protected] Battaglini Marco Princeton University [email protected] Batyra Anna Catholic University of Louvain [email protected] Benjamin David University of Southampton [email protected] Berentsen Aleksander University of Basel [email protected] Bilotkach Volodymyr University of California, Irvine [email protected] Birk Angela State University of New York, Fredonia [email protected] Bodur Yunus Emre Koc University [email protected] Bohacek Radim Charles University [email protected] Bonfiglioli Alessandra InstituteforEconomicAnalysis alessandra.bonfi[email protected] Bridji Slim University of Paris 10 and EconomiX [email protected] Bruegemann Bjoern Yale University [email protected] Bruha Jan Czech National Bank [email protected] Buera Francisco Northwestern University [email protected] Cabral Luis New York University [email protected] Carapella Francesca University of Minnesota, [email protected] Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Carrillo-Tudela Carlos Leicester [email protected] LAST FIRST INSTITUTION EMAIL Caselli Francesco LSE [email protected] Cavalcanti Ricardo Getulio Vargas Foundation [email protected] Cavallo Michele Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco [email protected] Chaney Thomas University of Chicago [email protected] Chang Yongsung Seoul National University [email protected] Chen Kaiji University of Oslo [email protected] Cheron Arnaud Universite Le Mans [email protected] Chien YiLi Purdue University [email protected] Cho Inkoo University of Illinois [email protected] Choi Horag The University of Auckland [email protected] Choo Eugene University of Toronto [email protected] Chugh Sanjay Federal Reserve Board [email protected] Citanna Alessandro HEC Paris [email protected] Clemens Christiane University of Magdeburg [email protected] Clementi Gian Luca New York University [email protected] Cociuba Simona University of Minnesota [email protected] Cole Harold University of Pennsylvania [email protected] Columba Francesco Bank of Italy [email protected] Cooley Thomas New York University [email protected] Cordoba Juan Rice University [email protected] Correia Isabel Banco Portugal and FCEE [email protected] Costain James Bank of Spain [email protected] Cozzi Marco UCL - Queen’s University [email protected] Cunha Flavio University of Chicago fl[email protected] de Blas Beatriz Universidad Autonoma de Madrid [email protected] de Paula Aureo University of Pennsylvania [email protected] Debortoli Davide Universitat Pompeu Fabra [email protected] Degan Arianna UQAM [email protected] Del Negro Marco Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta [email protected] Demidova Svetlana University of Georgia [email protected] Dennis Richard Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco [email protected] Devyatov Alexey New Economic School [email protected] Diaz Antonia Universidad Carlos III de Madrid [email protected] Dicecio Riccardo Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis [email protected] Domeij David Stockholm School of Economics [email protected] Drazen Allan University of Maryland [email protected] Drozd Lukasz University of Wisconsin [email protected] Eaton Jonathan New York University [email protected] Ebell Monique Humboldt University of Berlin [email protected] Eden Benjamin Vanderbilt University [email protected] Edge Rochelle Federal Reserve Board [email protected] Edmond Chris NYU [email protected] Eeckhout Jan University of Pennsylvania [email protected] Eggertsson Gauti Federal Reserve Bank of New York [email protected] Einav Liran Stanford University [email protected] Ekmekci Mehmet Northwestern University [email protected] Elger Max Stockholm School of Economics [email protected] Engel Eduardo Yale University [email protected] LAST FIRST INSTITUTION EMAIL Ennis Huberto M Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond [email protected] Eraslan Hulya University of Pennsylvania [email protected] Eusepi Stefano Federal Reserve Bank of New York [email protected] Faberman Jason Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia [email protected] Fabio Ghironi Boston College [email protected] Fadinger Harald Universitat Pompeu Fabra [email protected] Faig Miquel University of Toronto [email protected] Favara Giovanni HEC University of Lausanne [email protected] Felbermayr Gabriel Tuebingen University gabriel.felbermayr Femminis Gianluca Universita’ Cattolica - Milan [email protected] Ferraris Leo Universidad Carlos III Madrid [email protected] Filipovich Dragan El Colegio de Mexico dfi[email protected] Fiorini Mario University College London m.fi[email protected] Fitzgerald Doireann Stanford University dfi[email protected] Flinn Christopher New York University christopher.fl[email protected] Floden Martin Stockholm School of Economics martin.fl[email protected] Fogli Alessandra Fed. Reserve Bank of Minneapolis & NYU [email protected] Fong Pohan Concordia University [email protected] Fontenla Matias Univeristy of New Mexico [email protected] Forand Jean Guillaume University of Toronto [email protected] Forni Lorenzo Bank of Italy [email protected] Francis Neville North Carolina [email protected] Fuchs-Schuendeln Nicola Harvard University [email protected] Fudenberg Drew Harvard University [email protected] Galenianos Manolis Penn State University [email protected] Gancia Gino CREI and UPF [email protected] Gervais Martin UWO [email protected] Giannetti Mariassunta Stockholm School of Economics [email protected] Gilchrist Simon Boston Univeristy [email protected] Gillman Max Cardiff University [email protected] Gomes Francisco London Business School [email protected] Gopinath Gita Harvard University [email protected] Gottardi Piero University of Venice [email protected] Gourio Francois Boston University [email protected] Grochulski Borys Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond [email protected] Guerdjikova Ani Cornell University [email protected] Guerrieri Veronica University of Chicago [email protected] Guimaraes Bernardo LSE [email protected] Guler Bulent The University of Texas at Austin [email protected] Guner Nezih Universidad Carlos III de Madrid [email protected] Hairault Jean-Olivier Paris 1 University [email protected] Halpern László Central European University [email protected] Hansen Gary UCLA [email protected] Hashmi Aamir University of Toronto [email protected] Hawkins William University of Rochester [email protected] He Ping University of Illinois at Chicago [email protected] LAST FIRST INSTITUTION EMAIL He Hui University of Minnesota [email protected] Head Allen Queen’s University [email protected] Heinemann Maik Leuphana University of Lueneburg [email protected] Hellerstein Rebecca Federal Reserve Bank of New York [email protected] Hellwig Christian UCLA [email protected] Hendricks Lutz Iowa State University [email protected] 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17 5 E

11 14 2 A D 13 1 6 9 3 16 B 12 8

15 4 C 10 7

A PROFESNÍ DŮM B COCKTAIL PARTY C CONCERT D DINNER E SOCCER GAME

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