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Economic Perspectives The Journal of The Journal of Economic Perspectives Economic Perspectives The Journal of Summer 2019, Volume 33, Number 3 Economic Perspectives Symposia Markups Susanto Basu, “Are Price-Cost Markups Rising in the United States? A Discussion of the Evidence” Chad Syverson, “Macroeconomics and Market Power: Context, Implications, and Open Questions” Steven Berry, Martin Gaynor, and Fiona Scott Morton, “Do Increasing Markups Matter? Lessons from Empirical Industrial Organization” Issues in Antitrust A journal of the Carl Shapiro, “Protecting Competition in the American Economy: American Economic Association Merger Control, Tech Titans, Labor Markets” Naomi R. Lamoreaux, “The Problem of Bigness: From Standard Oil to Google” Articles 33, Number 3 Summer 2019 Volume Alvin E. Roth and Robert B. Wilson, “How Market Design Emerged from Game Theory: A Mutual Interview” Joshua B. Miller and Adam Sanjurjo, “A Bridge from Monty Hall to the Hot Hand: The Principle of Restricted Choice” Nicholas Bloom, John Van Reenen, and Heidi Williams, “A Toolkit of Policies to Promote Innovation” Michael W. L. Elsby and Gary Solon, “How Prevalent Is Downward Rigidity in Nominal Wages? International Evidence from Payroll Records and Pay Slips” Hunt Allcott, Benjamin B. Lockwood, and Dmitry Taubinsky, “Should We Tax Sugar-Sweetened Beverages? An Overview of Theory and Evidence” Features Alain Béraud and Guy Numa, “Retrospectives: Lord Keynes and Mr. Say: A Proximity of Ideas” Timothy Taylor, “Some Journal of Economic Perspectives Articles Recommended for Classroom Use” Recommendations for Further Reading Summer 2019 The American Economic Association The Journal of Correspondence relating to advertising, busi- Founded in 1885 ness matters, permission to quote, or change Economic Perspectives of address should be sent to the AEA business EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE office: [email protected]. Street ad- Elected Officers and Members A journal of the American Economic Association dress: American Economic Association, 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN 37203. For President membership, subscriptions, or complimentary BEN S. BERNANKE, The Brookings Institution Editor access to JEP articles, go to the AEA website: President-elect Enrico Moretti, University of California, Berkeley http://www.aeaweb.org. Annual dues for regu- JANET L. YELLEN, The Brookings Institution lar membership are $22.00, $32.00, or $42.00, depending on income; for an additional fee, you Vice Presidents Coeditors can receive this journal, or any of the Associa- LAWRENCE F. KATZ, Harvard University Gordon Hanson, University of California, San Diego tion’s journals, in print. Change of address no- DAVID H. ROMER, University of California, Berkeley tice must be received at least six weeks prior to Heidi Williams, Stanford University Members the publication month. NICHOLAS BLOOM, Stanford University Associate Editors Copyright © 2019 by the American Eco nomic ERICA FIELD, Duke University Leah Boustan, Princeton University Association. Permission to make dig ital or hard ADRIANA LLERAS-MUNEY, University of California, Los Angeles copies of part or all of this work for personal or BETSEY STEVENSON, University of Michigan Dora Costa, University of California, Los Angeles classroom use is granted without fee provided Janice Eberly, Northwestern University that copies are not made or distributed for profit MARTHA BAILEY, University of Michigan David Figlio, Northwestern University or direct commercial advantage and that cop- SUSANTO BASU, Boston College Amy Finkelstein, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ies show this notice on the first page or initial Ex Officio Members screen of a display along with the full citation, in- ALVIN E. ROTH, Stanford University Fiona Scott Morton, Yale University cluding the name of the author. Copyrights for OLIVIER BLANCHARD, Peterson Institute for International Economics Betsey Stevenson, University of Michigan components of this work owned by others than AEA must be honored. Abstracting with credit Appointed Members Ebonya Washington, Yale University is permitted. The author has the right to repub- Catherine Wolfram, University of California, Berkeley lish, post on servers, redistribute to lists, and use Editor, The American Economic Review Luigi Zingales, University of Chicago any component of this work in other works. For ESTHER DUFLO, Massachusetts Institute of Technology others to do so requires prior specific permis- Editor, The American Economic Review: Insights sion and/or a fee. Per missions may be requested AMY FINKELSTEIN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Managing Editor from the American Economic Association, Timothy Taylor 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN 37203; Editor, The Journal of Economic Literature email: [email protected]. STEVEN N. DURLAUF, University of Chicago Assistant Managing Editor Editor, The Journal of Economic Perspectives Jocelyn Rice ENRICO MORETTI, University of California, Berkeley Editor, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics Editorial offices: ALEXANDRE MAS, Princeton University Journal of Economic Perspectives Editor, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy MATTHEW D. SHAPIRO, University of Michigan American Economic Association Publications Editor, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2403 Sidney St., #260 SIMON GILCHRIST, New York University Pittsburgh, PA 15203 Editor, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics email: [email protected] JOHANNES HÖRNER, Yale University Secretary-Treasurer PETER L. ROUSSEAU, Vanderbilt University The Journal of Economic Perspectives gratefully acknowledges the support of Macalester College. Registered in the US Patent and Trademark Office (®). OTHER OFFICERS Copyright © 2019 by the American Economic Association; All Rights Reserved. Editor, Resources for Economists Composed by American Economic Association Publications, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA. WILLIAM GOFFE, Pennsylvania State University Printed by LSC Communications, Owensville, Missouri, 65066, USA. No responsibility for the views expressed by the authors in this journal is assumed by the editors or by Director of AEA Publication Services the American Economic Association. ELIZABETH R. BRAUNSTEIN, Pittsburgh THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES (ISSN 0895-3309), Summer 2019, Vol. 33, No. 3. The Managing Director of EconLit Product Design and Content JEP is published quarterly (February, May, August, November) by the American Economic Association, STEVEN L. HUSTED, University of Pittsburgh 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN 37203-2418. Annual dues for regular membership are $22.00, Counsel $32.00, or $42.00 depending on income; for an additional $15.00, you can receive this journal in print. The journal is freely available online. For details and further information on the AEA go to TERRY CALVANI https://www.aeaweb.org/. Periodicals postage paid at Nashville, TN, and at additional mailing offices. ADMINISTRATORS POSTMASTER: Send address changes to the Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Director of Finance and Administration Nashville, TN 37203. Printed in the U.S.A. BARBARA H. FISER Convention Manager GWYN LOFTIS The Journal of Economic Perspectives Contents Volume 33 • Number 3 • Summer 2019 Symposia Markups Susanto Basu, “Are Price-Cost Markups Rising in the United States? A Discussion of the Evidence” . 3 Chad Syverson, “Macroeconomics and Market Power: Context, Implications, and Open Questions” . 23 Steven Berry, Martin Gaynor, and Fiona Scott Morton, “Do Increasing Markups Matter? Lessons from Empirical Industrial Organization” . 44 Issues in Antitrust Carl Shapiro, “Protecting Competition in the American Economy: Merger Control, Tech Titans, Labor Markets” . 69 Naomi R . Lamoreaux, “The Problem of Bigness: From Standard Oil to Google” . 94 Articles Alvin E . Roth and Robert B . Wilson, “How Market Design Emerged from Game Theory: A Mutual Interview” . 118 Joshua B . Miller and Adam Sanjurjo, “A Bridge from Monty Hall to the Hot Hand: The Principle of Restricted Choice” . 144 Nicholas Bloom, John Van Reenen, and Heidi Williams, “A Toolkit of Policies to Promote Innovation” . 163 Michael W . L . Elsby and Gary Solon, “How Prevalent Is Downward Rigidity in Nominal Wages? International Evidence from Payroll Records and Pay Slips” . 185 Hunt Allcott, Benjamin B . Lockwood, and Dmitry Taubinsky, “Should We Tax Sugar-Sweetened Beverages? An Overview of Theory and Evidence” . 202 Features Alain Béraud and Guy Numa, “Retrospectives: Lord Keynes and Mr . Say: A Proximity of Ideas” . 228 Timothy Taylor, “Some Journal of Economic Perspectives Articles Recommended for Classroom Use” . 243 Timothy Taylor, “Recommendations for Further Reading” . 249 Statement of Purpose The Journal of Economic Perspectives attempts to fill a gap between the general interest press and most other academic economics journals . The journal aims to publish articles that will serve several goals: to synthesize and integrate lessons learned from active lines of economic research; to provide economic analysis of public policy issues; to encourage cross-fertilization of ideas among the fields of economics; to offer readers an accessible source for state-of-the-art economic thinking; to suggest directions for future research; to provide insights and read- ings for classroom use; and to address issues relating to the economics profession . Articles appearing in the journal are normally solicited by the editors and associate editors . Proposals for topics and authors should be directed to the journal office,
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