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Multi-Company Report November 12, 2017 | Equity Research Chip Weekly: Broadcom Bidding For Qualcomm, Intel Working With AMD Semiconductors Last week Broadcom announced an unsolicited offer to acquire Qualcomm. Intel announced that it will be using a custom discrete AMD graphics chip in one of its high end notebook processor families. Nvidia, Skyworks and Microsemi reported earnings. On November 6th, Broadcom announced an unsolicited offer to acquire Qualcomm, for $60 in cash and $10 value of Broadcom shares for each Qualcomm share. We cut our rating on Qualcomm (QCOM, to Market Perform from Outperform as the stock is now trading close to our price target, and we expect that going forward the stock will not trade on fundamentals but rather on developments regarding this acquisition offer. Intel announced a new mobile processor product which will be a part of Intel’s 8th Gen Core family, featuring Intel Core H-Series mobile processor, second generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM2) and a custom discrete AMD graphics chip. Nvidia reported revenues for the quarter of $2.636 billion (up 18% sequentially, up 32% year over year), above the company’s original guidance range of $2.35 billion +/- 2%. Guidance is for revenue to be $2.65 billion +/- 2% (midpoint = up 1% sequentially, up 22% yr/yr). Skyworks reported quarterly revenues of $984.5 million (+9% sequentially and up 18% year-over-year), above the company's guidance of $980 million. Skyworks guided for December quarter sales of $1,050 million (up 7% sequentially and up 15% year-over-year). Microsemi reported sales of $475.3 million (up 4% sequentially and +6% yr/yr) for the September quarter. Microsemi guided December quarter revenue to the $448-$472 million range (midpoint=down 3% sequentially and up 6% yr/yr). Month of October Taiwanese electronics sales trends suggest to us stability in end market demand, with most of our composites showing year/year growth. Admittedly though the growth is not uniformly strong. Our Taiwanese memory chip composite jumped 37% year/year and 5% month over month in October. Our chip packaging composite increased 1% year/year and 1% month/month in October. Our chip foundry composite increased 4% year/year and expanded 8% month/month in October. We published our Mobile Chip quarterly report where we provide an overview of wireless chip data and developments from recent earnings reports and other news. While it appears that the seasonal ramp in David Wong, CFA, PhD wireless handset component demand continues in the December Senior Analyst|212-214-5007 quarter, overall year/year comparisons are relatively low for many [email protected] wireless chip companies. Production of the first 10nm products for Amit Chanda mobile applications continues to ramp. Associate Analyst|314-875-2045 [email protected] In the coming week we expect that in month of October US Industrial Keith Kan, CPA Product data the technology-related numbers will show a continuation Associate Analyst|212-214-5066 of the recent trend of modest year/year growth. [email protected] Joy Zhang Associate Analyst|212-214-8017 [email protected] Please see page 10 for rating definitions, important disclosures and required analyst certifications. All estimates/forecasts are as of 11/12/17 unless otherwise stated. 11/12/17 19:53:55 ET Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report and investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Semiconductors Equity Research Our View – Risks in Broadcom bid for Qualcomm, Intel/AMD alliance creates opportunities On November 6th, Broadcom announced an unsolicited offer to acquire Qualcomm, for $60 in cash and $10 value of Broadcom shares for each Qualcomm share. In our view, Broadcom’s offer price assigns essentially no incremental stock value to Qualcomm’s stock associated with the possible closing of the NXP deal or resolution of outstanding disputes. Given Qualcomm’s ongoing legal and other disputes, its pending acquisition of NXP and the fact that Qualcomm’s management and Board have not as yet indicated as to whether they are in support of this offer, we see this acquisition bid as more uncertain than most chip-company acquisitions and mergers that have been announced in the last few years. Following Broadcom’s announcement we cut our rating on Qualcomm (QCOM, $64.51) to Market Perform from Outperform as the stock is now trading close to our price target, and we expect that going forward the stock will not trade on fundamentals but rather on developments regarding this acquisition offer. Last week Intel announced a new notebook processor product that includes a co-packed custom graphics chips from AMD. We think that this collaboration between Intel and AMD is beneficial for both companies. Intel can offer a differentiated CPU-GPU product with reduced silicon footprint and AMD is able to expand its installed base for its graphics chips. We think this implies incremental competitive risk for Nvidia in graphics. We are reiterating our Outperform ratings on both Intel (INTC, $45.56, Outperform) and AMD (AMD, $11.25, Outperform), and maintaining our Underperform rating on Nvidia (NVDA, $215.85, Underperform). Nvidia had a strong earnings report last week prompting us to raise our estimates and our price target. We think the company clearly has strong product offerings positioned in high growth markets, but we believe this is already reflected in its stock valuation. I on Intel November 9, 2017. Intel announces Optane SSD DC P4800X series. Intel announced its new data center solid state drive, Optane SSD DC P4800X Series. The new SSD (solid state drive) is available in new 750GB capacity in both half-height, half-length add-in card and hot-swappable 2.5inch U.2 form factor; both form factors and capacities will be generally available in November 2017. The new capacity follows the 375GB half-height, half-length add-in card launched earlier in 2017. The new SSD is ideal for storage workloads (SAN (storage area network) and software defined storage), cloud, database, big-data and high-performance computing workloads. November 8, 2017. Intel appoints Raja Koduri as Chief Architect of Core and Visual Computing Group. Intel announced that Raja Koduri will be its new chief architect, senior vice president, of the newly formed Core and Visual Computing Group; Koduri joins Intel from AMD where he was previously senior vice president and chief architect of the Radeon Technologies Group. In his new role, Koduri will focus on expanding Intel’s position in integrated graphics for the PC market. Koduri, 49, has more than 25 years of experience in visual and accelerated computing advanced across many platforms. Koduri will begin in his new role in early December. November 6, 2017. Intel announces new mobile product integrated with AMD graphics. Intel announced a new mobile processor product which will be a part of Intel’s 8th Gen Core family, featuring Intel Core H-Series mobile processor, second generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM2) and a custom discrete AMD graphics chip. We think that this collaboration between Intel and AMD is beneficial for both companies. Intel can offer a differentiated CPU-GPU product with reduced silicon footprint and AMD is able to expand its installed base for its graphics chips. We think this implies incremental competitive risk for Nvidia in graphics. Intel noted that systems from major OEMs based on this new technology are expected to be available in the first quarter of 2018. November 6, 2017. Intel Xeon Scalable processors power Amazon Web Services’ latest cloud instance. Intel announced that Amazon Web Services (AWS) public cloud customers can now access the performance of Xeon Scalable processors through Amazon’s latest generation of compute-optimized instances (EC2 C5 Instances). Intel said its Xeon Scalable processors allow public cloud users to transition among general purpose compute, high performance computing and AI (Artificial Intelligence)/deep learning compute. According to Intel, its Xeon Scalable processors feature energy efficiency and system- level performance that average 1.65x higher performance, 2.4x higher deep learning inference performance, and 2.2x higher deep learning training performance compared to prior generation Xeon processors. Amazon EC2 C5 instances feature up to 72 vCPUs (virtual central processor units - 2x compared to previous generation compute-optimized instances), 144 GB (gigabyte) of memory, and base clock 3.0 GHz (gigahertz). Data Roundup Semiconductor Capital Spending and Capacity: The ratio of worldwide semiconductor equipment sales to semiconductor IC sales was 15.6% in September, compared to 16.2% in August and 17.1% in July. Though semiconductor equipment spending remains is supports, we believe, by strong memory prices, the 2 | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Chip Weekly: Broadcom Bidding For Qualcomm, Intel Working With AMD Equity Research continuing transition to 3D NAND and a firm chip end market demand, it appears that equipment purchase are falling from peak levels earlier this year. Figure 1. Semiconductor Industry Investment (Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Purchases/Worldwide Semiconductor Sales) 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% (Global Semi Equip.)/(IC Sales) [3 mth Roll. Av.] [3 Roll. mth Equip.)/(IC Sales) (Global Semi Dec-90 Dec-91 Dec-92 Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Source: Semiconductor Industry Association, SEMI, and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Taiwanese Tech October Generally Stable, Memory Still Strong.
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