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Force Planning Scenarios, 1945-2016 Force Planning Scenarios, 1945 –2016 Their Origins and Use in Defense Strategic Planning Eric V. Larson C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2173z1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0099-4 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2019 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: Photo by Angel_a/Getty Images Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report documents research and analysis conducted as part of a project titled Defense Planning for a New Era, sponsored by the Quadrennial Defense Review Office, Deputy Chief of Staff (G-8), Headquarters, United States Army. The -proj ect aims to identify options for developing and improving the employment of sce- narios in defense planning. The report describes the forces that shaped conventional ground force planning during the 1945–2016 period, with an emphasis on the stra- tegic concepts and contingency scenarios used. It identifies broader lessons, especially those related to the strategic concepts that help connect basic national security policies with the planning and development of conventional ground forces. It also provides the context for the consideration of different combinations of alternative force planning scenarios. Finally, the report identifies potential opportunities for the U.S. Army to influence the future selection of defense planning scenarios. The findings should be of interest to Army force planners and others engaged in strategic planning in the U.S. Department of Defense. The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this document is HQD157136. This research was conducted within the RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doc- trine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corpora- tion, is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States Army. RAND operates under a “Federal-Wide Assurance” (FWA00003425) and com- plies with the Code of Federal Regulations for the Protection of Human Subjects Under United States Law (45 CFR 46), also known as “the Common Rule,” as well as with the implementation guidance set forth in DoD Instruction 3216.02. As applicable, this compliance includes reviews and approvals by RAND’s Institutional Review Board (the Human Subjects Protection Committee) and by the U.S. Army. The views of sources utilized in this study are solely their own and do not represent the official policy or position of DoD or the U.S. Government. iii Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figures ................................................................................................. ix Tables .................................................................................................. xi Summary .............................................................................................xiii Acknowledgments ................................................................................ xxiii Abbreviations ....................................................................................... xxv CHAPTER ONE Introduction ........................................................................................... 1 Approach ................................................................................................ 4 Organization of This Report .......................................................................... 5 CHAPTER TWO The Truman Administration, 1945–1953 ........................................................ 7 Historical Review ...................................................................................... 8 Trends in Defense Analytics .........................................................................21 Summary and Conclusions ......................................................................... 22 CHAPTER THREE The Eisenhower Administration, 1953–1961 .................................................. 23 Historical Review .................................................................................... 24 Trends in Defense Analytics ........................................................................ 38 Summary and Conclusions ..........................................................................39 CHAPTER FOUR The Kennedy and Johnson Administrations, 1961–1969 ....................................41 Historical Review .................................................................................... 42 Trends in Defense Analytics ........................................................................ 54 Summary and Conclusions ..........................................................................58 v vi Force Planning Scenarios, 1945–2016: Their Origins and Use in Defense Strategic Planning CHAPTER FIVE The Nixon and Ford Administrations, 1969–1977 ............................................61 Historical Review .....................................................................................62 Trends in Defense Analytics .........................................................................71 Summary and Conclusions ..........................................................................73 CHAPTER SIX The Carter Administration, 1977–1981 .........................................................75 Historical Review .....................................................................................76 Trends in Defense Analytics ........................................................................ 87 Summary and Conclusions ......................................................................... 92 CHAPTER SEVEN The Reagan Administration, 1981–1989 ........................................................95 Historical Review .....................................................................................95 Trends in Defense Analytics ....................................................................... 115 Summary and Conclusions ........................................................................ 116 Cold War Strategic Concepts, Scenarios, and Forces: A Brief Summary .................... 117 CHAPTER EIGHT The George H. W. Bush Administration, 1989–1993 ....................................... 125 The 1989 Base Force Study ........................................................................ 126 Summary and Conclusions ........................................................................ 144 CHAPTER NINE The Clinton Administration, 1993–2001 ..................................................... 145 The 1993 Bottom-Up Review...................................................................... 145 The 1997 Quadrennial Defense Review .......................................................... 173 Summary and Conclusions ........................................................................ 191 CHAPTER TEN The George W. Bush Administration, 2001–2009 .......................................... 193 The 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review Report ................................................. 193 The 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review Report ................................................ 214 Summary and Conclusions ........................................................................ 229 CHAPTER ELEVEN The Obama Administration, 2009–2017 ...................................................... 231 The 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review Report ................................................. 231 The 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review Report ................................................. 248 Summary and Conclusions ........................................................................ 268 Contents vii CHAPTER TWELVE Observations and Conclusions .................................................................. 269 APPENDIXES A. Strategic Analysis Key Terms, Authorities, and Directives ............................ 277 B. The Development and Use of Scenarios in the Joint Strategic Planning System ... 291 C. Supplementary Tables and Figures ......................................................... 307 References ........................................................................................... 321 Figures 2.1. U.S. Objectives in a War with the Soviet Union, November 1948–June 1953.............................................................13 7.1. Planned Deployment of U.S. Divisions, FY 1989 ................................
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