Forum: Nuclear Security Summit ​ Issue: Discuss the growing nuclear militarism in the Arctic Ocean. ​ Student Officer: Ananya Iyer ​ Position: President Chair ​ ______

Introduction

The Arctic is the northernmost area on the earth, delimited by the Arctic Circle and including the ice-covered Arctic Ocean with its surrounding lands and seas. With the reduction of the Arctic sea ice due to global warming and other factors, human activities have significantly increased, heightening interest in the region and its withheld countries. One of these human activities is nuclear militarism as neighbouring countries such as Iceland, Canada, the Russian Federation and more are now at the forefront of discussions regarding the controversial issue. “Nuclear Militarism is the that nations should develop, maintain and use a strong nuclear to expand its interests and such nations can be classified by their large defensive force with a disportionate share of the income, with society subordinates stood as support.” (Amadeo,2019) ​

With the indirect colonization of this region by its neighbouring countries, the Arctic opened up to further possibilities such as hydropower, wind, geothermal, tidal and solar energy. Starting from 1955, to 1990, the arctic island Novaya Zemlya was home to one of the largest military nuclear training facilities where the detonated a total of 120 nuclear devices. It has been emerging as a potential conflict zone, and though it gained importance in World 2 through assisting the Soviet Union as a supply line, it was only during the that it gained its significance. Due to its economic and energetic aspects, the Soviet Union and others such as the have attempted strengthening their position in this region through the deployment of missile-armed nuclear submarines and the anti submarine patrol aircraft during the Cold War, posing as the biggest troubles. The past of this issue is unclear as numerous incidents have encouraged the outcome of militarism, hence it cannot be decided when a trigger occurred to kickstart militarism in the Arctic Ocean. In addition to the Soviet Union, the Arctic Five Nations (United States, Rusia, Canada, Norway and Denmark) have similar goals to achieve in the Arctic Ocean as different claim territorial rights to the region, specifically the Lomonosov Ridge due to its numerous benefits.

The Arctic region is prone to conflict as it is believed to possess more than $22 trillion worth of natural resources under the ice, including 90 billion barrels of oil and 47 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. Since this northern tip is the intersection point of Eurasia, North America and Asian Pacific regions, it can be said that a lot rides on which nation gets full territorial claims. Economically, the thawing by nations by opening a maritime transit passageway, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage (NP) due to the melting ice, interesting the Russian and Canadian governments, playing their own benefits, though not currently used due to the risks of ice melting, however, will be every navigator’s dream. The Arctic Ocean’s militarism also harms societies, environments and more as with the implementation of nuclear warheads, the melting of ice is encouraged and a once peaceful region is now the hub for disaster.

Definitions of Key Terms

The Arctic Circle

It is one of the Earth's five major latitude circles, marking maps. This is the latitude parallel which runs 66.56083 degrees north of the Equator (in 2000) and everything north of this line is known as the Arctic. It is home to a diverse variety of wildlife including polar bears, wolverines, resineers and mooses.

Novaya Zemlya ​ ​ It is an archipelago (group of islands) in northwestern Russia, lying in the Arctic Ocean and separating the Barents and Kara seas; It consists of 2 large islands, Severny and Yuzhny in addition to many smaller islands.

The Cold War ​ ​ ​ ​ It was a long period of conflict between Western World governments and Eastern European Communist countries. The United States led the west, and the Soviet Union dominated Eastern Europe, claiming these nations as superpowers. Although they never declared war on each other, they battled through proxy such as the and the space race. Though the Soviet Union was an important member of

the Allied Powers, the Soviet Union and the rest of the Allies had considerable mistrust, ending with the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Arctic Five Nations ​ ​ ​ ​ It is a grouping of the five littoral Arctic states (Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia, and the United States of America) that address Arctic affairs. However, this association does not have any independent power or existence other than the States that make it up. Though their relations are usually bilateral and multilateral cooperation through diplomatic channels, they mostly meet only to discuss Arctic issues .

Territorial Rights ​ ​ Territorial Rights held by States can be divided into three main elements: the right to sovereignty, the right to the capital of the region and the right to control frontiers. It is a protected and exclusive territory claimed by a particular nation in this context.

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ It is a shipping route officially described by Russian legislation as lying east of Novaya Zemlya and running directly along the Russian Arctic coast from the Kara Sea, through Siberia, to the Bering Strait. It is the most trafficked sea route in the Arctic and the Russian territorial waters.

The Northwest Passage (NP)

It is a sea path that links the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans through the archipelago of Canada's arctic. It has been nearly impassable in the past, because it was covered by dense sea ice all year round. However, the development in climate change is allowing commercial traffic to pass through the Arctic Ocean.

Nuclear Warheads

An explosive device whose destructive potential is generated from the release of energy that involves the atomic nuclei separating or joining.

Key Issues

Climate Change

Over the course of many years, the iced Arctic has served as a cold region, however, with the development of increasing air and water temperatures, the Arctic is slowly becoming endangered. The temperature increase resulted in the melting of icecaps and ice on rivers, potentially causing major disastrous implications. With the Greenland ice sheet melted, there have been malfunctions and inconsistencies in the patterns of weather as climate change causes regions such as the Arctic to experience hotter weather than usual. The Arctic’s susceptibility to warming was discovered in the 19th century, setting a chain of initial warnings that have come to fruition. Snow and ice have an albedo (a measure of how while or reflective a surface is) as high as 80% so 80% of the sun’s energy hit on the surface is reflected back into space. However, the ocean is a darker colour, hence its albedo is much lower at 10%, allowing more of the energy to be absorbed. As the Earth gets warmer, ice melts into water, causing more melting and more dark water, proving the albedo feedback and putting life forms in a constant loop.

Additionally, with the melting of ice, the caps turn into water which may increase the sea levels in the arctic region, becoming prone to a natural disaster such as floods or more. With the implementation of nuclear militarism, the region will melt faster due to the energy particles, speeding the process of disaster. Climate change also has implications on the flora and fauna of the habitat as the increasing temperatures are almost directly proportional to their survival.

Economic Impacts ​ ​ The melting of the Arctic ocean leaves areas for nations to build and conduct nuclear tests , resulting in many eyeing its strategic importance and economic profitability. A major source of income from this region would be the untapped oil and gas resources with shorter international commercial routes. With this vast space untouched for many years, countries such as Russia and the United States aim to prosper in their nuclear arms race by using the natural resources and placing a test facility. With reduced commercial routes, trade also becomes easier as the transport is much shorter and can be done quicker. In retrospect,

the NSR offers a significant reduction in the travelling distance between Europe and the west of North America, while the NP is mainly interrupted by Canada and the United States as it doesn't have a clear clarification on its status as international or internal waters. Though currently, these passages are not heavily utilized due to the risks of ice melting, it is predicted that it will be used in the future as a dream of navigators.

In terms of the proliferation of production of nuclear , it would cost the nations to develop facilities and missile storage units in the Arctic ocean as it would be built from scratch. Additionally, the materials required to produce them such as Uranium-235 would require shipment since it is not produced in the region. However, with the discovery of new materials, countries could financially benefit as they would manufacture nuclear weapons with said apparatus, developing the world of technology as well.

Environmental Impacts ​ ​ The usage of nuclear weapons in the Arctic ocean is prone to having drastic negative impacts on various aspects of the ecosystem. With such a wide array of wildlife in the region, a large majority of the animals are endangered or exotic, hence the nuclear chemicals will prove to be dangerous. Animals such as the Arctic fox to the polar bar are very resilient as they live on the coldest of plains, however, chemicals produced by nuclear facilities or warheads shipped to the region will cause further endangerment or extinction. Phenomenons like the Northern lights are charged by the solar activity of the sun that encounters the earth’s magnetic field, propelling the lights onto the skies of Iceland, hence with the fumes and danger of , the probability of the lights reduces and can appear dangerous. As mentioned prior, with the melting of icecaps, the northern hemisphere of the world is exposed to the possibility of larger and more often natural disasters as the rising sea levels could also submerge islands along the ocean or comprising in Novaya Zemlya.

The Arctic region already holds the possibility of danger hence the inclusion of nuclear militarism decreases its chance of survival. The weapons would also require locations to build, hence the melting of ice would be encouraged instead of finding a solution, ultimately dooming the ecosystems, flora and fauna in the region.

Political Impacts ​ ​

The dilemma of nuclear militarism was born due to conflicts between the Arctic Five regarding their territorial claims onto the Arctic region with the hope of developing warheads and weapons, encouraging warfare. The biggest two competitors remain the United States and Russia as they are considered the superpowers of the world, always neck-to-neck in terms of development, hence conflict on their ideas of the Arctic’s territory. Russia looks to claim over 1.2 million square meters as it proves a threat to the since the US launched ballistic missiles from the water, leaving lRussia with less than 15 minutes to locate the threat. Similarly, the USA requires the territory to fight Russia, forcing this region to undergo constant threats to the lives of their inhabitants. Since the eradication of the Soviet Union, there have been many changes made to the international system that provided a new political framework to permit other Arctic actors to increase their participation in the Arctic Circle, especially since the United States was redirecting its attention to newer security threats while the Soviet Union was broken into scarce republics. It also developed Russia’s participation in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as it created links with Norway and others. With the development in nuclear warfare specifically in the Arctic Ocean, there have been further treaties and organizations founded to ensure the safety and security of wildlife and is human inhabitants.

Major Parties Involved

The Russian Federation ​ ​ ​ ​ As mentioned, the Russian Federation presented 1.2 million square meters of the Arctic as claim and unfortunately under the UN on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), a coastal state may claim rights to the seabed beyond 200 nautical miles (370,400m) by providing scientific evidence that this is a natural extension of its continental rim. The zone can also be expanded as the exclusive rights to access the natural resources under the seabed and ocean have been granted. Russia unveiled the Russian Northern Fleet which is a joint force consisting of 38 large surface ships, 40 submarines and an Army Corps. As the prior Soviet Union, Russia’s main motivation was to guarantee a reduction in American attacks from the coasts of neighbouring countries. Currently, they have plans to re-modernize the military as it has consistently emphasized on the power and importance of the region, and with the weakening of their conventional forces, they are now relying on nuclear deterrence and sea-based nuclear forces to assume a high priority in the nuclear race.

The United States of America ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ The United States has always remained a superpower since the Cold War due to its gain and competes in the nuclear race to ensure it possesses the best nuclear military. The US Coast Guard was looking to “weaponize” its icebreaker ships to use a clear path through the icy seas, the deployment proving US superior to the entire northern hemisphere. They have also increased their presence at the Barents Sea as the other Nuclear Weapons State. The US was the first country to produce a in 195 showing their capabilities to take over the region through their prior knowledge. However, it appears to be losing the arctic circle arms race to Russia as the latter took control of the NSR, reopening other bases. The US also struck Russia from a neighbouring country’s coast, trying to eliminate the competition, however it failed to do so.

Canada

Canada, as a member of the Arctic Five, aims to claim a significant amount of the Arctic region as they have been battling it out since the beginning of the race. It is to deploy an Arctic naval flotilla as Ottawa unveiled a plan to boost its defense by spending more than $30 billion over the next decade, focusing majorly on warships and fighter jets. With Canada’s claim of the Rudge being an extension of its seabed, it can be concluded that they are in the nuclear arms race with the rest of the members to ensure they can take over a territory. If it is given the territorial claim of Lomonosov Ridge, it will be in possession of a majority of the resources and natural seabed.

Norway

Norway, a smaller country, with the sovereignty of Svalbard, fears the split between Russia and the West affecting the growing interest in the Arctic’s oil, gas and shipping routes. Currently, it has a 196km land border with Russia and its Northern Fleet, which also shows signs of concerns regarding the military situation. To eradicate this, Russia aims to send more US Marines as an unfriendly act to have “consequences”. With Norway’s sovereignty over the archipelago, under the 1920 treaty, citizens of all signatories to the treaty can settle down in the region, providing Norway with claim over the region. As an original founder of the NATO, it is worried Russia would be able to block NATO troop movements by taking over the GIUK gap, an area in the northern Atlantic Ocean between Greenland, Iceland, and Britain.

India

Many believe India should follow China’s footsteps in seeking a share in the exploitation of the Arctic resources to fuel its continuous economic growth. However, it ignores the greater damage compared to benefits India may have to endure if the Arcic continues to be raved by human greed. Currently, India possess neither the financial or technological capability to match countries such as US or Russia that are at the forefront of the current Arctic issue. It is however, a part of the Arctic Council by accepting the sovereign rights of the Arctic Council members over the Arctic Ocean. Such a non-regional state is increasing its ability to and investing in technology to exploit and take over the Arctic to continue nuclear testing and proliferation.

People’s Republic of China ​ ​ ​ ​ China attempts to pour money into nearly every Arctic country and has invested billions of dollars into extracting energy from beneath northern Russia. It is drilling for gas in Russia and prospecting for minerals in Greenland, pushing it to the rest of the northern hemisphere. With this in mind as well as its technological advancements to enter or remain in the nuclear arms race, China will inevitably look to join the Arctic Five as they distribute the region in order to find suitable locations to discover newer renewable sources such as the gallons of untouched oil. China also has a partnership with Russia as both countries advance towards the region and comes against a background of rising hostilities between China and the United States over trade and territorial claims. With the threat of Chinese presence in the Arctic region, the Pentagon warned of the possible deployment of nuclear submarines in the future.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was finally set up by the UN in July. It held its first conference in October in Vienna to help spread nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, promote nuclear safety, and administer a system of international nuclear safeguards to prevent nuclear material distribution. This and NATO aided in the development of tactics to ensure the reduction of exploitation of the Arctic due to its natural resources and wildlife. The IAEA has played a vital role in guaranteeing the safety and security of nations especially in the Arctic region.

Timeline

Date Event Outcome

August 1942 The Manhattan Project The US government assigned the responsibility of its weapon program onto the Army Corps of Engineers with Brigadier General Leslie Groves in of the Manhattan project. This was an American codename as they tried developing a function atomic weapon with the assistance of the world’s leading scientific minds.

August 6th and 9th Hiroshima and Nagasaki A U.S. B-29 bomber dropped a uranium 1945 bomb named “Little Boy '' on the Japanese port city of Hiroshima, obliterating the city and killing over an estimated 66,000 people instantly. 3 days later, the United States dropped a second plutonium bomb named “Fat Man” over Nagasaki, killing over 39,000 people and injuring many more. This finally marked the end of the Second on August 10th, with surrendering.

May 1951 Operation Greenhouse The United States initiated Operation Greenhouse, a series of nuclear tests carried out at the Eniwetok Atoll to test various design concepts which would eventually become central to the production of thermonuclear warheads. The aim of these tests was to reduce the size, weight and

quantity of fissile material needed for nuclear weapons, while at the same time increasing their destructive power.

31st October 1961 Tsar Bomba On 31 October, the Soviet Union detonated Northern Russia's largest 58-megaton dubbed "Tsar Bomba." The U.S. and Soviet Union then signed the McCloy Accords on September 20 to discuss full disarmament. These would be supervised by the UN, contributing to the removal of all weapons of mass destruction, delivery systems, and national armed forces.

1973 Arctic Five Council The member states of this organization include US, Russia, Denmark, Norway, and Canada as they engaged in their first meeting in Oslo when the states signed the Agreement on the Conservation of Polar Bears.

July 31st 1991 START The US and Soviet Union signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) after almost 10 years of negotiations and agreed to limit their nuclear arsenals to no more than 1,600 delivery vehicles and 6,000 deployed warheads. In fact, no more than 1,000 warheads on compact missiles are authorized under START1

2nd August 2007 Russian Exploration The Russian explorers claimed the North Pole by planting a titanium deep-sea flag on the seabed during the Arkatika sea expedition. While collecting water and

sediment samples to prove Russia’s claim to the Lomonosov Ridge, the flag was planted to assert Russia’s possession. This gave the Russian Federation sole access to almost half of the Arctic and the North Pole.

15th September 2010 A new treaty was created Norway and the Russian federation signed the Treaty on Maritime Delimitation and Cooperation in the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean. Thiswas signed to contribute by securing stability and strengthening the cooperation of the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean.

2013 & 2014 Canada and Denmark’s Canada was expected to submit a claim to Involvement the CLCS within the UNCLOS to prove the Lomonosov Ridge is its territory as it is an underwater extension of the Ellesmere Island. If this was proved, Canada would receive access to the seabed and its resources across the continental shelf. Denmark was also required to do this to achieve the same benefits as Canada as the Lomonosov Ridge extends from Greenland’s seabed, giving Denmark uninterrupted claims.

Present The Lomonosov Ridge Currently, Canada, Kingdom of Denmark, and the Russian Federation believe the Ridge is an extension of their own continental shelf and such proof would grant them access to the natural resources beyond the current nautical mile limit. The United

States in an oceanic ridge hence doesn't take claim of the region since it is not an extension of the ridge.

Evaluation of Previous Attempts

Maritime Delimitation and Cooperation in the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean Treaty The Treaty applied to Norway’s and Russia’s respective exclusive economic zones and the continental shelf between and beyond 200 nautical miles. The agreement ended the maritime border dispute as it allowed for new oil and gas exploration in the Arctic region. This proved useful as it completed its goal in 2010 of acting as a peaceful buffer between the nations as their conflicts flared up. This proved that all disputes occurring in the Arctic can be tackled by the Arctic nations through talks on the basis of international law. The new maritime boundary divides the area more or less equally and stipulates that it will not affect current arrangements, terminating the “Grey Zone '' and negotiating a cooperative unitization arrangement. However, though it worked in the past, these nations continue to fight for Arctic land due to its various abilities, showing that the once prestigious agreement no longer stands.

Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) ​ The CTBT disallows nuclear weapon test explosions through a protocol of 3 parts: International Monitoring System, On-site inspections, and Confidence Building Measures. It bans civilian and military ​ purposes for explosions in environments of all kinds. It has not yet entered into effect since 3 of the 44 required states have yet to sign it and 5 to ratify it. As basic obligations, The CTBT bans any nuclear weapon test explosion or any other nuclear explosion by any country in any environment as it could be dangerous to its surroundings. The Treaty provides ways to redress a violation of the Treaty to ensure compliance through sanctions and settlement of conflicts. This ban once in effect will ensure that the Arctic can no longer be used as a hub for testing and hence reduce its drastic environmental implications that the chemicals released would cause.

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)

The NPT is a treaty aimed at reducing the spread of nuclear weapons through disarmament, non-proliferation and peaceful use of nuclear energy. Collecting 191 signatures from States Parties, it was signed on 1st July 1968. The treaty defines nuclear weapon states as those who manufactured and exploded a nuclear device before January 1st 1967, hence all others are called non-nuclear weapon states. The 5 nuclear weapons states are: China, France, Russia, The U.K. and the U.S. As mentioned before, this categorizes the 3 forms of member states, following: 1. States without nuclear weapons will not acquire them; 2. States with nuclear weapons will pursue disarmament; 3. All states can access nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, under safeguards.

​ The only 5 countries that have not signed the NPT are: India, Pakistan, South Sudan, Israel and . Nuclear states are not to encourage non-nuclear states to manufacture or receive such weapons, whereas, non-nuclear states are not to receive them. All parties must pursue good negotiations to find methods to end the nuclear arms race. All parties are allowed to manufacture nuclear energy if it is to be used for peaceful procedures. With this treaty in effect, it has ensured that non-member states cannot manufacture or test nuclear weapons, reducing the risks of colonizing the Arctic region as it is its main goal.

Possible Solutions

Reaffirming Existing Treaties As proven, though there are numerous treaties signed to ensure the safety and security of the Arctic region beside its nuclear militarism, many nations fail to adhere to the laws and regulations. These treaties must be reaffirmed by nations through re-signing them to ensure full dedication as it is the primary method to ensuring the reduction of harm to the region. This may not seem very possible however, it is crucial to analyze the past mistakes made by the treaties and attempt to resolve them in the second round through making amendments or treaties completely new agreements. This can also be done through creating new summits as the prior Arctic Five failed to keep the Arctic Ocean safe from militarism, hence it would be beneficial to attempt the past actions again to see if they could be feasible under a new light.

Raising Awareness

Due to the lack of importance and knowledge provided by society, nuclear militarism is not a subject many are aware of, hence there is a lot of confusion regarding it. Raising awareness about an issue is one of the best approaches as it ensures that the surrounding are informed about the issue. The public option is of the highest decree in the majority of nations due to its democratic methods hence if citizens are not in support of nuclear militarism in the Arctic Ocean, it is more likely for governments to decide against the expansion of such weapon programs. Since in order to be elected/re-elected, a party must keep favour to ensure their power, hence educating the common population about nuclear militarism and its disastrous implications could benefit the Arctic Ocean. This could be done through international and national campaigns calling tor educational programs and the local implementation of advertisement, government broadcasting and workshops, allowing them to obtain adequate about the subject. This could be funded by the UN, and made by smaller subgroups such as the IAEA as it is responsible for nuclear weapon information.

Implementing Sanctions onto Breaching Nations Though this might seem drastic, this is an effective means to ensure countries abide by treaties and reduce conflicts to industrialize the Arctic ocean. This would slowly eradicate signs of disputes due to the heavy sanctions applied to ensure there is a punishment to potentially destroying the Arctic Ocean an array of chemicals, injuring the flora and fauna. Since it is not feasible to restrict nations to visit and dispute over the Arctic region since there is a divided share onto the ocean’s land, sanctions are a constructive method to ensure countries can remain with their share. This would be similar to the NPT as it bans weapons, however, since that is not applicable, the sanctioning will limit the development of nuclear militarism in the Arctic Ocean as many nations such as Morocco or Iceland would be unable to pay the heavy amount of sanctions and tariffs. It would also call upon nations that currently have not signed the NPT such as Inid, Pakistan, Israel and DPRK to ensure they can abide to the sanctions.

Improving Security Security is a major reason why the Arctic continues to get breached by the Arctic Five as they repeatedly aim to obtain a section of the land. Though this would be difficult as the governments are superpowers hence can easily pass through, it will ensure only selected countries get the opportunity to gain land in the region instead of whichever country pleases. This only encourages climate change as it would increase the probability they had. An example is the US's strike on Russia proves that there is a lack of security in the Arctic Ocean as the latter was unprepared for such an attack. This security would be overseen by the UN

by delegating special task forces to prevent the entry of various countries that can prove dangerous to the region. The UN-funded guarding methods would be feared by countries as it dictates their share of the land, hence there will be a reduction in the striked sent to the Arctic. Nuclear militarism is a dangerous issue that could be solved through such methods as it guarantees the safety and protection of the ecosystem in the Arctic Ocean. However, it could be hacked by corrupt officers, black operations and bribes, leaving the Arctic unprotected once again.

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